Reds Place Nick Lodolo On Injured List
The Reds are losing another starter to the injured list, as the team announced this morning that rookie left-hander Nick Lodolo is headed to the 10-day IL. He’s dealing with a lower back strain, per Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). Infielder Mike Moustakas was reinstated from the 10-day IL in a corresponding move, and he’s back in the Reds’ lineup as the designated hitter for Thursday’s game.
Cincinnati hasn’t given any indication as to whether this will be a brief stint on the IL for Lodolo, or whether their touted young lefty could be facing a more protracted absence. Regardless, he’s joining both Luis Castillo and Mike Minor on the injured list, leaving an already floundering Reds team with a question mark in the rotation. Tyler Mahle, Hunter Greene, Vladimir Gutierrez and Reiver Sanmartin are all healthy options at the moment, although Greene’s 5.27 ERA is the best of that bunch through four turns in the rotation.
Castillo set out on a rehab assignment this past weekend and threw 48 pitches (2 1/3 innings), so he’s at least on pace to rejoin the rotation sooner than later. The Reds had been planning on giving him two more rehab appearances before activating him in perhaps the second week of May, so we’ll see if the injury to Lodolo prompts a more accelerated timetable for the team’s top starter. Cincinnati could simply go with a bullpen game or two while waiting on Castillo’s return, or it’s possible that they’ll take a look at righty Graham Ashcraft, who’s out to a strong start in Triple-A. If the preference is for a shorter-term veteran option, right-hander Zack Godley is also on the roster down in Louisville. Either would need to be selected to the 40-man roster.
Lodolo, 24, was the No. 7 overall draft pick back in 2019 and entered the season ranked among the sport’s top pitching prospects. He’s gotten out to a rough start, however, surrendering a 5.52 ERA through 14 2/3 innings over his first three big league starts. He’s punched out an impressive 27.5% of his opponents thus far, but Lodolo has yielded a whopping 18 hits — three of them home runs. He’s also walked five hitters and plunked a pair, further crowding the basepaths. Certainly, a rocky stretch of three starts to begin his career isn’t going to dramatically alter the perception of Lodolo or dampen his long-term outlook, but the struggles are magnified, given the injuries and struggles that are permeating the remainder of the Reds’ pitching staff.
As for the 33-year-old Moustakas, he wound up missing a minimal 10 days with a right biceps strain. The three-time All-Star is in dire need of a rebound at the dish, as he opened the year with a .129/.125/.129 slash and is batting just .196/.261/.336 in 238 plate appearances dating back to 2021. Moustakas is in the third season of a four-year, $64MM contract with the Reds.
Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins
The Twins stunned the baseball world with one of the largest annual-value contracts ever given by any team but took a patchwork approach to bolstering a rotation that needed quite a bit of help.
Major League Contracts
- Carlos Correa, SS: Three years, $105.3MM
- Dylan Bundy, RHP: One year, $5MM (includes $1MM buyout of $11MM club option for 2023)
- Chris Archer, RHP: One year, $3.5MM (includes $750K buyout of $10MM mutual option for 2023)
- Joe Smith, RHP: One year, $2.5MM
- Total 2022 spending: $46.1MM
- Total overall spending: $116.3MM
Option Decisions
- Declined $5.5MM mutual option on RHP Alex Colome (paid $1.25MM buyout)
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RHP Sonny Gray and minor league RHP Francis Peguero from the Reds for minor league RHP Chase Petty
- Acquired SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa and minor league RHP Ronny Henriquez from the Rangers for C Mitch Garver
- Acquired 3B Gio Urshela and C Gary Sanchez from the Yankees for SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 3B Josh Donaldson and C Ben Rortvedt
- Acquired RHPs Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan and a PTBNL from the Padres for LHP Taylor Rogers, LF Brent Rooker and cash
- Claimed RHP Trevor Megill off waivers from the Cubs (later non-tendered, re-signed to minor league deal)
- Claimed RHP Jharel Cotton off waivers from the Rangers (since outrighted to Triple-A)
- Claimed C Jose Godoy off waivers from the Giants (since outrighted to Triple-A)
- Claimed RHP Jhon Romero off waivers from the Nationals
Extensions
- Signed CF Byron Buxton to a seven-year, $100MM extension with significant annual incentives
Notable Minor League Signings
- Tim Beckham, Daniel Robertson, Derek Fisher, Chance Sisco, Curtis Terry, JC Ramirez, Jake Faria, Daniel Gossett, Jake Petricka, Dereck Rodriguez, Chi Chi Gonzalez
The most pressing order of business for the Twins this winter began months before the offseason commenced. July extension talks with Byron Buxton didn’t bear fruit, and the Twins seriously entertained the idea of trading their uber-talented but injury-prone center fielder. Minnesota hung onto Buxton in the end, and those summer talks ultimately served as groundwork for a seven-year, $100MM extension that comes with substantial upside for both parties.
Even a partial season of Buxton is often worth the $14.28MM annual base value on the deal, but Buxton can earn up to $8MM annually based on MVP voting and $2.5MM annually based on plate appearances. It’s a fitting middle ground between a homegrown player who stands out as one of baseball’s best raw talents and a mid-market team that has been perennially vexed by Buxton’s durability woes.
Buxton will earn $10MM this year and $15MM annually from 2023-28, enjoying full no-trade protection from 2023-26 before his 10-and-5 rights kick in and grant him veto power over any trade for the remainder of the deal. In essence, the deal locks the 28-year-old Buxton in as a Twin through age 35. Whether he’ll ever remain healthy enough to reach those MVP-based incentives is anyone’s guess, but the Twins’ payroll bar only figures to increase from this year’s $138MM mark over the life of the contract. It stands to reason that they’ll eventually be staking under 10% of their annual payroll on Buxton’s upside. Viewed through that lens, it’s a reasonable gamble to take.
Buxton negotiations aside, starting pitching was the Twins’ clearest need. Their only locks for the 2022 rotation were right-handers Bailey Ober, who quietly posted solid results as a rookie last season, and Joe Ryan, whom they acquired from the Rays in last summer’s Nelson Cruz trade. With a deep crop of free-agent starters available and several high-profile names on the trade market, it was a good offseason to be on the hunt for pitching.
If you’d told Twins fans in November that they’d spend a total of $116MM in free agency, most would’ve assumed nearly the entire slate would’ve been dedicated to pitching. Instead, the Twins gave the fourth-ever largest annual value to a position player and didn’t sign a free-agent pitcher for more than $5MM.
That $5MM sum went to right-hander Dylan Bundy — their lone pre-lockout addition. It’s a roll of the dice that might not have excited many Twins fans, but it was sensible enough. Bundy’s 2020 was outstanding, and he got out to a strong start with the Halos in ’21 as well before a series of ineffective performances cost him his rotation spot. Eventually, a shoulder strain ended Bundy’s season in August.
The extent to which his struggles can be attributed to that balky shoulder isn’t certain, but his time with the Angels was split evenly between good and bad. In 17 starts from Opening Day 2020 to early May 2021, Bundy totaled 101 2/3 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with a 27% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate. In 17 appearances from May 8 through his season-ending IL stint, Bundy logged 54 2/3 innings of 6.72 ERA ball with greatly inferior strikeout (17.6%) and walk (10%) rates.
It’ll be a bargain if Bundy pitches well — to their credit, so far so good on that front — and the fact that there’s an affordable $11MM club option for 2023 sweetens the pot. Still, it was nevertheless a notable surprise that the Twins didn’t do more pre-lockout. Adding Bundy to serve as a fourth or fifth starter is fine, but the Twins more or less idled as nearly every big name pitcher — Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez — signed elsewhere before the lockout.
That seemed to portend a focus on the trade market, which did indeed happen — but only to an extent. Minnesota struck quickly after the transaction freeze lifted, adding Sonny Gray and minor league righty Francis Peguero in a deal that sent 2021 first-rounder Chase Petty to the Reds. Gray looked like a solid next step after Bundy. Getting two years of him (plus a live-armed lottery ticket) in return for a high-risk high school righty who might be four to five years from MLB readiness made some sense for both the Twins and Reds, given the two teams’ trajectories.
However, the Twins didn’t match the Giants’ two-year offer for lefty Carlos Rodon, never had a chance on Clayton Kershaw, and were spurned by Zack Greinke, who took a similar offer from the Royals because he preferred to return to his origins in Kansas City. Eventually, they agreed to an incentive-laden deal with talented but oft-injured righty Chris Archer. As with Bundy, it’s a reasonable price in a vacuum. Archer’s $3.5MM guarantee is a drop in the bucket for most MLB franchises, and if he unlocks any significant portion of the hefty $9.5MM of incentives baked into the deal, it’ll be because he’s pitching well enough to justify that cost.
At the same time the Twins were closing that deal, the trade market was beginning to dry up. Reds GM Nick Krall all but announced that neither Tyler Mahle nor Luis Castillo would be traded, leaving the Twins (and others) to focus primarily on Athletics hurlers Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. The latter understandably proved more alluring, given his extra year of team control, but Twins fans (and many others) still raised an eyebrow when Manaea, a free agent at season’s end, was traded to the Padres for what was widely considered to be a light package.
That trade perhaps partially paved the way for the Twins to buy low on former top prospect and Rookie of the Year candidate Chris Paddack, whom they acquired from San Diego alongside Emilio Pagan and a player to be named later (later revealed as pitching prospect Brayan Medina) on Opening Day. That swap sent All-Star closer Taylor Rogers, who ended last year on the shelf with a ligament injury in his pitching hand, and corner outfielder Brent Rooker back to the Padres.
Rogers is a free agent at season’s end, whereas the Twins can control Paddack through 2024 and Pagan through 2023. Minnesota had a surplus of controllable corner outfielders, likely making it easier to part with Rooker. Viewed through that lens, it’s easy enough to see why the Twins would prefer three years of a buy-low rotation candidate with upside and two years of a reliever with an inconsistent track record to one of Rogers — no matter how excellent he may have become in recent years. The swap isn’t without risk, though, and some fans will justifiably wonder why the Twins didn’t make a stronger push for Manaea. Paddack’s 2021 season ended when he was diagnosed with a minor ligament tear in his elbow, which creates some clear downside moving forward. His overall performance has also fallen off since an outstanding rookie season in 2019.
If the Twins can get Paddack back to his 2019 levels, the trade could go down as a steal. But that’s three pitchers the Twins are hoping to rehabilitate in a season they have designs on competing: Paddack, Archer and Bundy. Gray, the most established name added, has had stints on the injured list for back, groin and rib-cage strains since Opening Day 2020, and he’s currently shelved with a minor hamstring strain. He doesn’t have a long history of arm troubles, but Gray also isn’t a 180- to 200-inning workhorse on whom the Twins can bank. Given that their other two rotation members — Ober and Ryan — came into the 2022 season with a combined 25 big league starts, it felt like an underwhelming slate of additions on the pitching side.
Part of that surely stems from the fact the Twins are deep in promising upper-level arms. Right-handers Jordan Balazovic and Josh Winder are among the sport’s best pitching prospects, and Winder cracked the Opening Day roster in a long relief role. Simeon Woods Richardson, Cole Sands, Louie Varland and Ronny Henriquez (more on him in a bit) have all reached the Double-A level at least. Flamethrowing top prospect Jhoan Duran made the bullpen and might stay there this year after an injury-shortened 2021 season, but he could get rotation consideration down the line.
That Duran and Winder are arguably the most notable bullpen additions for the Twins is another perplexing outcome — particularly given the trade of Rogers. Minnesota’s lone bullpen pickup in free agency was veteran righty Joe Smith. He’ll help, particularly against right-handed opponents, but there was ample room for multiple additions of note. The Twins, however, have generally been risk-averse when it comes to free-agent deals for pitching under president Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine, and that continued this winter.
That’s not to say the Twins were inactive on the whole, of course. Quite to the contrary. When looking to the position-player side of things, the Twins had one of the most frenzied and chaotic offseasons of any team in the Majors — and certainly the most shocking and unexpected winter in their franchise’s history.
Waiting this long to address the elephant in the room is burying the lede, but maybe that’s emblematic of the Twins’ offseason as a whole. In a winter that virtually everyone expected to center around pitching help, the Twins’ biggest acquisition was a jaw-dropping, 1:00 am stunner that saw them sign Carlos Correa to a three-year, $105.3MM contract that gave Correa — who perhaps not coincidentally is wearing No. 4 in Minnesota — the fourth-largest annual value in Major League history at $35.1MM.
It took a rather unlikely series of events to make that match possible. Pre-lockout, Correa sought a 10-year deal that would top Francisco Lindor‘s $341MM total, reportedly spurning a $275MM offer from the Tigers that included multiple opt-out opportunities. That both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien signed with the same team — rather than filling multiple shortstop voids around the league — and that Seager received a $325MM guarantee likely only emboldened Correa, even as he entered the lockout unsigned. What Correa did not count on, however, was that the Yankees would essentially sit out the free agent market entirely and that the Astros would not budge from their maximum offer length of five years.
Other potential suitors had their own reasons for balking. The Mariners are committed to J.P. Crawford at shortstop and president Jerry Dipoto stressed that he planned to target free agents willing to play multiple positions. The Tigers, rather than reengaging, simply pivoted and signed Javier Baez for half of their reported offer to Correa. The Red Sox opted not to move Xander Bogaerts from shortstop, defensive shortcomings notwithstanding, and may never have been willing to offer ten years to any player. The Cubs spent most of their money elsewhere and were content to give Andrelton Simmons a cheap one-year deal. The Dodgers’ focus was Freddie Freeman. The Cardinals stuck with Paul DeJong. The Phillies, despite an obvious need at shortstop, embarked on a great experiment to prove that defense doesn’t matter.
Even amid all that market context, the Twins wouldn’t have been a fit were it not been for another stunning sequence of moves. Recognizing their need for a shortstop, the Twins flipped catcher Mitch Garver to the Rangers in exchange for two years of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and aforementioned pitching prospect Ronny Henriquez. The trade netted a glove-first bridge to prospects Royce Lewis and Austin Martin, plus a near-MLB pitcher who now ranks ninth in their system at FanGraphs and 14th at MLB.com.
That trade was a mild surprise but hardly a stunner. Falvey said shortly after the deal that the Twins felt they couldn’t pass up the opportunity to add a durable, Gold Glove-caliber defender at a position of need, even if it cost them Garver. But just hours after lauding Kiner-Falefa and his fit with the Twins, Falvey traded him to the Yankees alongside Josh Donaldson and catcher Ben Rortvedt in a headline-grabbing deal that saw New York eat the entirety of Donaldson’s contract while sending both Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez back to Minnesota.
It’s uncommon to see any player pinballed around the trade market as Kiner-Falefa was, let alone by a Twins organization that for so many years was so conservative in its transactions. The trade of Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa left the Twins with a net gain of more than $40MM in long-term payroll flexibility. It also added a solid replacement for Donaldson (Urshela) and a catcher (Sanchez) to split time with former top prospect Ryan Jeffers, who’ll play a larger role following the trade of Garver. Between Sanchez and Miguel Sano, the Twins could challenge some strikeout records, but there’s prodigious right-handed power up and down the lineup.
That net $40MM gain, of course, proved vital in making Correa a feasible option. He, however, was not the Twins’ immediate focus in the aftermath of the Donaldson swap. Rather, the team set their sights on fellow top free-agent shortstop Trevor Story, reportedly expressing willingness to commit a four-year deal worth more than $100MM (via Dan Hayes and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic). The Twins likely felt good about their chances until the Red Sox upped their efforts and showed a willingness to not only go to six years but include an opt-out opportunity. At that point, as Falvey and Correa explained at his introductory press conference, the agreement with the Twins came together in a matter of hours. Agent Scott Boras, hired by Correa during the lockout, reached out to the Twins’ front office and expressed an openness to a short-term deal. Twins owner Jim Pohlad supported the general framework.
Barring injury, it’s effectively a one-year deal for Correa, an All-Star shortstop with an MVP ceiling who’ll slot into the Twins’ lineup alongside the player selected immediately behind him with the No. 2 overall pick in 2012: Byron Buxton. Slow start notwithstanding, Correa substantially raises the ceiling of this Twins team. He’s arguably the best defensive shortstop in baseball and an All-Star caliber hitter. It’s at least of some note that Correa just this week publicly expressed openness to a long-term deal, though it’s hard to call that anything other than a long shot.
It’s the first time we’ve ever seen the Twins land a player of this caliber in free agency, and even if Correa goes the route of a one-year mercenary, as expected, his signing unequivocally alters the manner in which the Twins will be perceived in free agency. They still won’t be seen as favorites to shell out decade-long deals of $300MM or more, but the mere fact that they made a commitment of this nature will make them more credible threats for high-AAV, short-term veterans. The Twins had never topped a $23MM annual salary prior to this deal, so going to $35MM+ for Correa shows a whole new level of willingness to spend.
Whether the quiet pre-lockout period for the Twins was due to strong belief in the in-house group of arms, a desire to see whether the playoff field would expand, or some combination of factors, the end result is that they’re banking on internal development more than most would’ve expected. That Joe Ryan’s sixth-ever big league appearance came on Opening Day symbolizes that bet.
There’s no chance Correa was seen as a realistic target for the Twins early in the offseason, so kudos to their front office and ownership for adapting and taking the plunge when a unique opportunity presented itself. Only time will tell whether the decision to put so many of their eggs in that basket while eschewing more reliable rotation help can yield a return to the playoffs. But at the very least, the 2022 Twins have a postseason-caliber ceiling and will provide their fans with a look at the pitching staff’s future.
Reds To Select Phillip Diehl
12:45pm: The Reds announced the move, adding that lefty Justin Wilson is heading to the 10-day injured list with a soreness in his left elbow. With Wilson sidelined and Diehl up in the Majors, the Reds will still have just one lone southpaw option in the bullpen.
11:25am: The Reds are selecting the contract of left-handed reliever Phillip Diehl, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (Twitter link). It’ll be the Cincinnati native’s first big league work since appearing with the Rockies in 2020. The Reds have an open spot on the 40-man roster at the moment, so no corresponding 40-man move was necessary. The team hasn’t yet announced the transaction, though, so it’s possible it’ll be accompanied by other roster moves.
Diehl, 27, is in his second season with his hometown organization. He spent the 2021 season with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate in Louisville, where he pitched to a terrific 2.47 ERA with a 33% strikeout rate against a 5.6% walk rate in 54 2/3 innings of relief. Despite that showing, Diehl didn’t get a look in the big leagues with the Reds, who claimed him off waivers from the Rockies in early April and passed him through waivers a month later.
This season, Diehl has has yielded four earned runs on five hits and a walk with 11 strikeouts through eight frames. He’ll give manager David Bell a second southpaw option in a bullpen that had previously only included veteran Justin Wilson.
In 13 1/3 career Major League innings, Diehl has allowed 13 runs. He’s been outstanding at Triple-A dating back to last season, however, and has a long history of both missing bats (31.1% strikeout rate) and limiting free passes (6.7% walk rate) in parts of six minor league seasons.
Top Draft Prospect Dylan Lesko Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Right-hander Dylan Lesko, one of the top prospects in the entire 2022 draft class, underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (Twitter link).
Even in spite of the surgery, McDaniel suggests that Lesko could still be the first pitcher off the board in a draft class that skews heavily toward position players. The 6’3″, 195-pound righty out of Buford High School in Georgia has a commitment to Vanderbilt and is regarded by both McDaniel and Baseball America as the clear top pitcher in this year’s class.
Earlier this month, when sharing video from one of Lesko’s outings (what proved to be his final start of 2022), McDaniel tweeted that Lesko showed a mid-90s heater with a plus curveball and the “best amateur changeup I’ve ever seen.” Carlos Collazo and Tom Lipari of Baseball America feel similarly, writing that Lesko has plus-plus (i.e. 70-grade) feel for his changeup and labeling him a “special” talent that “doesn’t come around very often.”
[Related: 2022 MLB Draft Order]
Because of the inherent risk associated with any high school pitching prospect, Lesko hasn’t been listed at the very top of draft boards — and the recent surgery likely ensures that he won’t be as the July draft approaches. McDaniel now has Lesko eighth on his draft list. Baseball America ranked him sixth prior to the injury. Notably, between high school outfielder Druw Jones (son of Andruw Jones) and shortstop Jackson Holliday (son of Matt Holliday), there are a pair of intriguing second-generation talents who are expected to come off the board in the first 10 picks of this summer’s draft.
Orioles’ Brandon Hyde Under Contract Through At Least 2023
The Orioles have been abnormally quiet about the status of manager Brandon Hyde’s contract, only announcing his initial hiring on a three-year deal that spanned the 2019-21 seasons. Dan Connolly of The Athletic reported back in September that Hyde had quietly signed an extension in the summer of 2020 — a deal that’d carry him at least through the current season. Baltimore never announced the deal. Now, Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun reports that Hyde is under contract beyond the 2022 season. The specific terms of his deal still aren’t clear, as the Orioles and Hyde have clearly preferred to keep them close to the vest.
Nevertheless, it’s notable to learn that Hyde isn’t playing out the season under the dreaded “lame-duck” managerial status. That he’s under control for at least another year is an ostensible vote of confidence in Hyde, who is clearly being evaluated on far more than the team’s win-loss record. That’s true of any manager in today’s game but is particularly true for skippers who are leading clubs in Baltimore’s situation.
It’d hardly be fair for the front office to fault Hyde for the team’s consistent losing records, after all, when the baseball operations staff has spent his entire managerial tenure tanking in an effort to perennially bolster its draft position. Beyond that, the O’s have routinely traded away big league-caliber players as they near free agency. Hyde’s rosters have been disproportionately comprised of waiver claims, minor league signings and organizational depth pieces who’ve been pushed into larger roles as the front office has eschewed any real free-agent spending or win-now trade acquisitions.
Ruiz spoke to several Orioles players, including clubhouse leaders like Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays and Paul Fry — all of whom went on record to effuse praise for Hyde. All noted Hyde’s consistency even amid protracted losing streaks, with Mancini noting that Hyde is “the same guy every day.” Mancini in particular was appreciative of Hyde and the role he played as a support pillar when Mancini was diagnosed with stage-three colon cancer in the spring of 2020.
While three-plus seasons of rebuilding — and the frequent losses associated with it — might take their toll on a manager, Hyde spoke optimistically and enthusiastically about the organization’s future in his interview with Ruiz. he remains committed to the O’s, stressing that he’s “in this for the long haul” and that he’ll “be here when we’re winning.” O’s fans, in particular, will want to check out the full interview for quotes from Mancini, Mullins, Hays, Fry, Ryan Mountcastle, Hyde and GM Mike Elias on the job the skipper has done under challenging circumstances.
Blue Jays Notes: Second Base, Hernandez, Jansen, Ryu, Pearson
A good portion of the Blue Jays’ offseason was focused on finding infield help, both to replace the departing Marcus Semien and perhaps to create an avenue for Cavan Biggio to move back from third base to second base. Defensive metrics weren’t particularly fond of Biggio’s work at third base, but he has generally solid marks in more than 1000 innings at second.
The Jays indeed found a left-side upgrade in the form of Matt Chapman, who’ll not only serve as a defensive improvement over Biggio at third base but will also help to offset shortstop Bo Bichette‘s below-average range. Chapman’s addition looked to move Biggio back to second base, at least as the larger half of a platoon with Santiago Espinal, but as Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling writes, it’s Espinal who looks to have seized the full-time job at the position.
Espinal, 27, is hitting .268/.333/.464 (128 wRC+) and, as importantly, has already posted sizable plus marks in Defensive Runs Saved (3) and Outs Above Average (3) through just 135 innings at second base. It’s still just 63 plate appearances, but Espinal has solid walk (7.9%, slightly below average) and strikeout (22.2%, slightly better than average) rates thus far in addition to a huge 48.8% hard-hit rate to begin the season.
Espinal’s play alone would likely have boosted the size of his role, but Biggio’s placement on the Covid-related injured list yesterday could further open the door, at least in the short-term, for Espinal to continue impressing. The Jays didn’t announce that Biggio had tested positive, though GM Ross Atkins told reporters that he’s been exhibiting potential symptoms (Twitter link via TSN’s Scott Mitchell).
Atkins also provided some updates on a pair of injured Jays, noting that slugging right fielder Teoscar Hernandez, who’s on the injured list with an oblique strain, could progress to live batting practice within a few days’ time. Hernandez was placed on the injured list back on April 14, and the Jays have felt his absence. Offseason acquisitions Raimel Tapia and Bradley Zimmer have been pressed into larger roles, but neither has produced at the plate. Tapia is hitting .236/.232/.327 in 58 plate appearances, while Zimmer is just 2-for-22 with one walk and 10 punchouts. Both Tapia and Zimmer have connected on a home run, but that doesn’t offset their general dearth of production.
Catcher Danny Jansen, per Atkins, is behind Hernandez and isn’t yet ready to swing a bat. Jansen homered twice in eight plate appearances before going down with an oblique strain of his own back on April 11. In his stead, the Jays have gotten a solid OBP out of Alejandro Kirk and a massive .306/.324/.611 output in 37 plate appearances from trade pickup Zack Collins. While Collins’ 35.7% strikeout rate portends a good bit of regression, he’s been productive enough for now that Toronto has even given him five starts at designated hitter.
On the pitching side of things, lefty Hyun Jin Ryu is slated for a live bullpen session this week that’ll determine his next steps (Twitter link from Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi). He’s currently dealing with a forearm injury. Righty Nate Pearson, currently out with a bout of mononucleosis, is slated to throw to hitters this weekend and could go on a rehab assignment next week. Atkins noted that Pearson may be ticketed for a “bulky” role, suggesting a multi-inning relief assignment once he’s back on the roster (link via MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson).
Still just 25 years old, Pearson isn’t far removed from ranking as the top-ranked right-handed pitching prospect in the game. The former first-rounder has electric stuff, evidenced by a fastball that averaged 97.7 mph in last year’s tiny sample of 15 big league innings. However, he’s been limited by elbow and groin injuries since making his 2020 debut, and Pearson also underwent offseason surgery to repair a sports hernia.
With just 45 2/3 innings between Triple-A and the Majors combined last season, plus 18 innings in 2020 (and some work at the Jays’ alternate training site), Pearson likely wouldn’t be relied upon to work a traditional starter’s slate of innings anyhow. The hope for the long term is surely that he’s able to eventually realize his top-of-the-rotation potential, but a hybrid role seems more prudent at this time, given the limited workloads in recent seasons. Pearson could yet make some starts this season, but with Ryu, Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah, Yusei Kikuchi and swingman Ross Stripling all on the big league roster, plus Anthony Kay and Thomas Hatch in Triple-A but on the 40-man roster, the Jays have the depth to more strategically build Pearson up for 2023 and beyond.
Correa Open To Long-Term Deal With Twins
The common consensus when Carlos Correa signed a surprising three-year, $105.3MM contract with the Twins was that he’d take his opt-out clause at the end of this season and re-enter the market. However, Correa recently spoke with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and revealed that he’s already expressed to Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, general manager Thad Levine and manager Rocco Baldelli that he would “love” to sign a longer-term deal.
“I told ‘em, ‘Hey guys, I know I have the opt-outs in the contract. But I really like it here,'” Correa tells Rosenthal. “I love the people here. I love the way I’m treated here. … I would love to have a long-term relationship here if that’s what you guys would like.” Correa adds that his wife already feels “right at home” in Minnesota and that he’s been energized by his teammates, specifically lauding the scalding-hot Byron Buxton as well as the overall win-now temperament throughout the clubhouse.
On the one hand, it’s hardly a surprise to see Correa express a willingness to sign a lengthy contract. He hit the open market this past offseason seeking a contract of at least 10 years in length and only pivoted to the three-year, opt-out-laden deal with the Twins after he did not find a longer-term deal to his liking. Any player would surely “love” to sign a long-term deal of the magnitude Correa sought in free agency. (The Tigers reportedly offered Correa a 10-year deal worth $275MM with multiple opt-out opportunities, but he was said to be seeking a deal north of $330MM.)
On the other hand, it’s also common for players to decline to discuss contractual matters during the season. We regularly see players who are on the cusp of free agency set Opening Day deadlines for a new contract because they prefer not to negotiate during the season. As a newly signed free agent, Correa is in a different boat than, say, Aaron Judge, who did not agree to terms on a long-term deal with the Yankees before his own Opening Day deadline, but it’s nevertheless of at least some note that Correa is publicly expressing a desire to stay put. He’d hardly have been the first player to simply decline to discuss the matter when asked and instead say he’ll think about that after the season.
From the Twins’ side of things, Falvey declined to delve into specifics but said that even when signing Correa to his three-year deal, the organization’s hope was that the shortstop would find Minnesota to his liking and hope to stay long-term. “I certainly expect we’ll maintain open lines of communication with both Carlos and [agent Scott Boras],” Falvey added.
There’s no getting around the fact that Correa is out to a poor start. It’s only 59 plate appearances, but Correa is hitting .192/.288/.288 with a homer and a pair of doubles. Statcast feels he’s been unlucky based on his huge 92.4 mph average exit velocity and a sky-high 58.8% hard-hit rate, but that “bad luck” only applies when Correa actually puts the ball in play. He’s doing that less often than ever, with a 30.5% strikeout rate that’s nearly 10 percentage points higher than his career 20.7% mark. Statcast credits him for an “expected” .230 average and .394 slugging percentage, but he’ll need to curb the strikeouts if he’s to return to his prior levels of production.
For his part, Correa made clear that he’s not concerned. The former Rookie of the Year, All-Star and 2021 Platinum Glove winner said he’s struggled to find his swing in April in the past, and a look at his career splits does reflect, to an extent, that he’s been more productive in subsequent months. That said, Correa has a career 123 wRC+ in March/April that towers over his current 77. Baldelli noted that Correa received fewer than half the spring plate appearances he might’ve in a normal year — a reflection both of the truncated Spring Training schedule and Correa’s own late signing.
Assuming Correa eventually rounds into form at the plate and that the Twins indeed have a desire to keep him longer-term — Baldelli raved to Rosenthal about Correa’s presence in the clubhouse and leadership traits — the question becomes one of whether they can comfortably make such a commitment. Signing Correa would likely require an unprecedented commitment for the franchise, given that the largest contract ever issued by the Twins was Joe Mauer‘s eight-year, $184MM pact. That contract came with a unique set of circumstances, as Mauer was a former No. 1 overall pick and St. Paul native who’d just been named American League MVP in 2009 — the final season at the Metrodome before the Twins moved into a new, largely publicly funded stadium, Target Field. The public relations impact of letting Mauer walk as a free agent after the 2010 season would’ve been overwhelming; that’s not the case with Correa, whom many fans expect to opt out and sign elsewhere next winter.
Still, you’d be hard-pressed to claim the Twins “can’t afford” to keep Correa, if the front office and Boras can agree on a structure. Minnesota’s payroll this season is a franchise-record $138MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, and the Twins only have $76MM in guarantees on next year’s books. Correa’s $35.1MM salary accounts for nearly half that sum. By 2024, the Twins have just $54.5MM on the books — again, with Correa representing a major portion of that figure. Beginning in 2025, the Twins only have a bit more than $18MM on the books.
Over the long-term, Buxton’s seven-year, $100MM contract is the only major commitment the Twins have. He’ll earn a $15MM base salary on that deal from 2023-28, though that figure can jump by as much as $10.5MM annually based on total plate appearances and MVP voting. Still, even in a year where Buxton were to max out that figure, he’d only do so by staying healthy and winning an MVP Award. The Twins would happily pay $25.5MM in that scenario, and even pairing that with a hefty annual salary for Correa, the combined $55-60MM would be a fraction of the team’s overall spending. It doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will be running $200MM payrolls anytime soon, but it’s also reasonable to project some modest increases over this year’s $138MM mark.
The Twins would need to fill out the roster beyond those two players, of course, but they’re bullish on a crop of young pitching headlined by Opening Day starter Joe Ryan, to say nothing of young arms like Bailey Ober, Josh Winder and Jhoan Duran, all of whom are already in the big leagues. Prospects Jordan Balazovic, Simeon Woods Richardson, Louie Varland, Cole Sands and others aren’t expected to be far behind, and slugging infielder Jose Miranda ought to make his MLB debut at some point in 2022 as well. Signing Correa would perhaps block top infield prospects Royce Lewis and Austin Martin, but both have experience playing multiple positions. Not all of those players will emerge as contributors, but it’s easier to stomach a long-term, near-market-value deal when expecting an influx of cost-controlled young talent to help fill out the roster.
It’s still difficult to imagine the Twins ponying up with this kind of commitment, if only for the simple reason that they’ve just never spent at this level in the past. There’s a strong likelihood Correa will be back on the market after the season. That said, it was also difficult to imagine the Twins handing out a $35.1MM annual salary to Correa in the first place, and that contract at least changed some expectations and made a larger deal seem slightly more plausible. It’d still register as a surprise, but it’s easier to take the “never say never” tack now that the Twins have already pulled off one Correa stunner.
Fans intrigued by the situation will want to check out Rosenthal’s column in full, as it’s rife with detailed quotes from each of Correa, Falvey, Baldelli and Boras regarding the possibility of Correa extending his stay in Minnesota. There’s no indication that talks will happen anytime soon, but the Twins were active on the in-season extension front last year when trying to hammer out Buxton’s long-term deal prior to the trade deadline. A larger deal for Correa could be even more complicated, but all parties seem open to the idea.
Astros Designate Pedro Baez For Assignment
The Astros have designated right-hander Pedro Baez for assignment and recalled righty Seth Martinez from Triple-A Sugar Land, the team announced Tuesday.
Baez, 34, is just weeks into the second season of a two-year, $12.5MM contract that also contained a club option for the 2023 season. He missed the majority of the 2021 season due to shoulder troubles, however, pitching just 4 1/3 innings. He’s been limited to 2 1/3 frames thus far in 2022, during which time he’s been clobbered for six runs (three earned) on five hits and three walks with two punchouts. Baez’s fastball, which averaged nearly 98 mph at its peak and sat at 96 mph as recently as 2019, has averaged just 90.2 mph so far in 2022.
Houston will technically have a week to trade Baez or place him on outright waivers, but that’s a generally moot point. Another team isn’t going to take on the remainder of this season’s $5.5MM salary or the $2MM buyout he’s still owed on next year’s club option — not with his recent shoulder troubles and alarming velocity dip. Even if Baez were to be passed through outright waivers, he could reject an outright assignment to a minor league affiliate, elect free agency and retain his salary based on the level of big league service time he’s accrued.
The most likely outcome here is that the Astros will eat the remaining $4.91MM on Baez’s salary, as well as the $2MM buyout on next year’s option and simply release him. Baez would be free to sign with a new club, at which point that team would only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time he spent in the Majors. That sum would be subtracted from the $6.91MM the ‘Stros otherwise owe him.
Disheartening as Baez’s brief time with the Astros was, he was a well-regarded late-inning arm for the Dodgers in the years leading up to his free agency. From 2014-20, Baez tallied 356 innings of 3.o3 ERA ball with 100 holds, three saves, a 25.3% strikeout rate and an 8.2% ground-ball rate. He tacked on another 29 1/3 innings of 3.99 ERA ball in the playoffs, and if you set aside a rough showing in the early stages of his career (2014-15), Baez notched a 2.70 mark in 26 1/3 postseason innings from 2016-20.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Reds Activate Jonathan India, Designate JT Riddle For Assignment
The Reds announced Tuesday that they’ve reinstated second baseman Jonathan India from the injured list and designated utilityman JT Riddle for assignment in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Cincinnati also optioned infielder Alejo Lopez to Triple-A and added infielder Matt Reynolds to the active roster. The Reds claimed Reynolds off waivers a couple days ago.
India, the reigning NL Rookie of the Year, wound up requiring only a minimal stay on the injured list while nursing a hamstring strain. He’s back in the lineup hitting leadoff for today’s game. The 25-year-old has gotten out to a slow start in his sophomore season, hitting just .241/.267/.276 — albeit in a tiny sample of 30 plate appearances. The 2021 season saw India, a former No. 5 overall draft pick, break out with an outstanding .269/.376/.459 batting line, 21 home runs, 34 doubles, two triples and a dozen steals.
As for Riddle, the 30-year-old journeyman appeared in two games and went 1-for-4 with a single in that brief look. He signed a minor league deal with Cincinnati in the offseason and got out to a fast start in Triple-A Louisville, where he hit .258/.333/.516 in 36 trips to the plate. That said, Riddle is a career .244/.296/.396 hitter in parts of seven Triple-A seasons, including a tepid .202/.269/.333 last season with the Twins’ top affiliate in St. Paul. The former Marlins prospect has spent the bulk of his pro career playing shortstop, but he’s moved into more of a utility role in recent seasons, seeing ample time at second base, third base and all three outfield spots (center, in particular).
The Reds will have a week to trade Riddle, place him on outright waivers or release him.