Latest On Potential For Expanded Playoffs
An expanded postseason field, and the accompanying surge in annual revenue, is perhaps the most critical issue for Major League Baseball during the ongoing wave of collective bargaining talks with the MLB Players Association. MLB has continually pushed for an expansion to 14 teams, and while the MLBPA has acquiesced and shown a willingness to expand the field to an extent, their latest proposals have included a slightly smaller 12-team field (as a trade-off for myriad other potential gains/wins for the union).
ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported yesterday that in the event of a push to 14 teams, ESPN would pay MLB an additional $100MM in television fees for the newly created games and postseason content. That’s all the explanation needed for why the league views expanded playoffs as an imperative, but even a move to a 12-team format would be immensely beneficial. Andrew Marchand of the New York Post reports that even expanding to 12 teams would net MLB an additional $85MM in revenue from ESPN. Those figures are critical to keep in mind, as they provide context for the gains the union hopes to achieve through its own asks in negotiation.
The Players Association has previously suggested the possibility of a “ghost win” for division winners — that is, the winners of each division who do not receive a bye would effectively start a series up 1-0 over their Wild Card opponents. The Wild Card clubs would be tasked with winning one more game than the division winners in order to advance to the next round, with the union’s general belief being that this structure would incentivize teams to push to win the division rather than “settle” for a Wild Card.
ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that one potential iteration of a 12-team playoff field would give each league’s best two teams a first-round bye, while the remaining eight teams would compete in best-of-three series. Olney doesn’t indicate whether that’s a union- or league-proposed structure, but that seems to diverge rather notably from the union’s prior “ghost win” scenario. It’s possible Olney’s scenario is one way the league envisions a potential increase to a dozen teams, but there’s been no firm agreement on postseason expansion anyhow, so the specifics are still very much up for debate in negotiations.
One potential alternative, if the league considers the “ghost win” unpalatable, could be to stack home-field advantage for the better team, although it’s not clear whether the union would consider this enough incentive to win the division. Still, as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz wrote in 2020, in a theoretical best-of-seven series played between two evenly matched teams, his own historical research has suggested the home team would win 59% of the time. Add the revenue and allure of hosting that series (gate, parking, concessions, surrounding developments), and there would indeed be some incentive; alternatively, however, some clubs might balk at the notion of reaching the playoffs and yet not playing host to a single contest.
There are countless permutations that could be explored, but the crux of the matter for the union — beyond wanting to ensure that they receive sufficient compensation for agreeing to the change — has been some wariness that an expanded playoff field will actually disincentivize teams from spending. Increasing the field to 14 teams, for instance, would’ve allowed an 83-win Reds team that slashed payroll last offseason and an 82-win Phillies team to enter the 2021 postseason. The general concern that teams might feel the expanded format can help them skate into the postseason without making meaningful offseason upgrades obviously has its detractors, but the union has regularly pitched it as a central focus.
In general, anti-tanking measures have been a key talking point for the MLBPA during negotiations, and The Score’s Travis Sawchik tweets that the league and union at least discussed the possibility of awarding monetary bonuses to teams small-market clubs who are making an effort to compete. The funds would be allocated at commissioner Rob Manfred’s discretion, and it remains unclear just where the parameters for receiving said bonuses would be set. Presumably, that’d be its own set of negotiations, though win totals and reaching the postseason make for natural benchmarks — at least in concept. The source of these additional bonus funds remains unclear, though Sawchik does add that revenue sharing would continue in addition to this hypothetical concept, so it’s not a straight replacement scenario.
There’s about three hours to go until the latest “deadline” from MLB. Manfred has termed any cancellation of regular-season games a “disastrous outcome for the industry” and made no indication of any possibility of rescheduling missed games. However, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports that the MLBPA has been holding out hope that, in the event games are ultimately stricken from the regular-season calendar, the two sides can negotiate a means of making them up somewhere down the road in 2022.
Whether that’d come in the form of additional doubleheaders, the addition of some makeup games on would-be off days or in some other capacity isn’t known. MLB was, in 2020, staunchly against pushing regular-season games into October — although last year’s regular season included three games in early October. The logistics of trying to reschedule any missed games would bring about its own complicated set of negotiations, and both sides would surely prefer to simply agree to terms that facilitate an on-time start to the season. We’ll know just how feasible that is before too long.
Cubs, Kevin McCarthy Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cubs have agreed to a minor league contract with former Royals reliever Kevin McCarthy, according to the team’s transactions log at MLB.com. He’s represented by Pro Agents Inc. and, presumably, will be in big league camp once Spring Training gets underway.
The 30-year-old McCarthy spent parts of the 2016-20 seasons in the Kansas City bullpen, logging a combined 191 2/3 innings of 3.80 ERA ball along the way. His career 14.5% strikeout rate is well below the league average, but McCarthy’s 7.4% walk rate is strong and his 58.7% ground-ball rate would place him among the league leaders in any given season. That said, after averaging 94 mph on his sinker as a rookie in 2016, the former 16th-rounder has seen his velocity drop annually — bottoming out at an average of 90 mph in his six innings of 2020 work.
McCarthy was passed through outright waivers following that 2020 season and elected minor league free agency. He signed a minor league pact with the Red Sox and spent the first several months of the season in their system before being released in mid-August. He latched on with the White Sox on another minor league deal and tossed another 7 2/3 innings with their Triple-A affiliate.
On the whole, the 2021 season wasn’t a good one for McCarthy, who was hit hard with both Sox organizations — posting an ERA north of 7.00 at each stop. He finished the year with 43 innings of 7.12 ERA ball in Triple-A. McCarthy did, however, post a 20.3% strikeout rate that’s a good bit higher than his prior strikeout rates, and he did so while maintaining a superlative walk rate (4.4%) and a strong ground-ball rate (48%). There’s little harm for the Cubs to bring him in on a nonguaranteed pact to see if he can maintain the strikeout gains while doing away with some of the alarming rise in hits allowed (which was fueled, in part, by a sky-high .408 BABIP with the Red Sox’ top affiliate).
As it stands, the Cubs’ bullpen picture ought to be wide open. The only relievers on the roster with more than a year of big league experience are Rowan Wick, Codi Heuer and Brad Wieck. Left-hander Justin Steele, 26, and right-hander Scott Effross, 28, both had strong showings in limited samples out of the bullpen and could have the inside track on relief gigs at the moment, but there’s plenty of opportunity for McCarthy and other minor league signees (e.g. Jonathan Holder, Eric Yardley) to grab a spot with some strong work either in Spring Training or early in the Triple-A season. The Cubs could well sign a veteran reliever or two post-lockout, but even in that event, there’s still room for a non-roster player or two to win a job in camp.
MLB Proposals To Union Have Included International Draft
Major League Baseball pushed its deadline for a labor deal to 5pm Tuesday, bringing about some renewed hope that a new collective bargaining agreement could be agreed upon without the cancellation of any regular-season games. Both the league and the union made some notable offers overnight, with the players showing a willingness to drop Super Two expansion from their proposal and the league dropping increased overage penalties for teams exceeding the luxury tax.
It’s frankly staggering that after a months-long lockout, the maintenance of the status quo in those regards feels like progress, but there are larger elements at play in other areas of negotiation. One key item that has not drawn much attention to this point but is currently a part of the league’s proposal, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic (Twitter link), is an international draft. The implementation of an international draft would be seen as a sizable gain for the league and would presumably require them giving something back to the players in return, though at present it’s not clear just how feasible its inclusion will be.
As with all elements of a proposal (from either side), it’s possible that the inclusion of an international draft is little more than a bargaining chip that will eventually be “dropped” under the guise of making a concession. Both parties have done this throughout negotiations, presenting items known to be nonstarters for the opposition before largely backing off as talks reached — and surpassed — MLB’s imposed eleventh hour. Super Two expansion and increased CBT penalties, for instance, have both been generally viewed as non-negotiable by the league and union, respectively, but remained key components of both parties’ proposals until late last night. Whether the league is seeking to wield the international draft in a similar capacity isn’t clear, but to this point there’s no reason to believe the two sides are close to agreeing on this front.
Talk of an international draft has been ongoing in various capacities for more than a decade, although it has not, to this point, been a prominent feature of the current wave of collective bargaining. International free agency used to be largely unregulated within the sport, allowing teams to spend as they pleased on amateur talent from other countries, with only U.S. and Canadian talents being subject to the annual Rule 4 (amateur) draft held each summer.
The 2012-16 collective bargaining agreement implemented stricter classification of which talents could be considered amateur versus professionals and also instituted harsh penalties for exceeding league-allotted international bonus pools. The thought, at the time, was that teams would shy away from exceeding their bonus pools for fear of being significantly curbed in future signing periods. Exceeding the bonus pool by a certain threshold in a year limited teams to bonuses of $250K (and later $300K) or less in subsequent periods.
What unfolded instead was somewhat the opposite. Multiple teams — the Cubs, Yankees, Padres, Dodgers, White Sox and Red Sox among them — showed no hesitation in absolutely shattering their league-allotted pools, either in order to make one-time runs at stocking the farm with enormous waves of amateur talent or to sign the highest-profile talents on the international market. That approach is what led the Red Sox to sign Yoan Moncada for a $31.5MM signing bonus that came with a 100% overage tax — effectively spending $63MM just to get him into their system. The White Sox did the same with Luis Robert, signing him for a $26MM bonus that came with a 100% dollar-for-dollar tax.
The 2017 collective bargaining agreement eliminated teams’ ability to do so — presumably much to the relief of smaller-market clubs that felt they had no hope of signing players in that regard. The union agreed to hard-capped international bonus pools, the overall size of which were tied to the team’s record (just as is the case with the annual amateur draft). In essence, the more games lost by a team, the larger the international bonus pool and amateur draft pool. The increased restrictions on teams’ paths to acquiring amateur talent is now seen by the players as a major component of what they believe to be an anti-competitive landscape in MLB that incentivizes clubs to stop spending money and embark on lengthy rebuilds in the name of rebuilding the farm system.
The specifics of a potential amateur draft remain unclear, but in theory, it could be seen as a means of further limiting the ability to spend freely on amateur talent and further incentivizing prolonged rebuilds — at least if the international draft order is tied to record (and particularly if it is separate from the amateur draft lottery being discussed by MLB and the MLBPA).
It’s also unclear just who’d be eligible for the international draft in its currently proposed state. At present, players who are at least 25 years of age and have at least six years of professional experience in a foreign league are deemed “professionals” and are exempt from bonus pools, allowing them to sign Major League contracts. Padres infielder Ha-Seong Kim and current free agent Seiya Suzuki are prominent recent examples of this. Players who are younger than 25 and/or have fewer than six years of pro experience — e.g. Moncada, Robert, Shohei Ohtani — are deemed “amateurs” and are only able to sign minor league contracts with signing bonuses. The 2017 CBA, as previously mentioned, hard-capped those bonus pools, which is why Ohtani’s bonus was “only” $2.3MM, as opposed to the enormous bonuses secured by Moncada and Robert.
It’s a bit surprising to see such a notable component being moved into the spotlight a bit with time for an agreement ostensibly dwindling, but its inclusion is nevertheless quite notable — whether it’s being legitimately discussed or simply yet another in a long line of leverage plays that has been brandished throughout a contentious set of negotiations.
MLB Reportedly Indicates Willingness To Miss A Month Of Regular Season Games
MLB’s self-imposed deadline to reach an agreement with the Players Association is today, and Evan Drellich, Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic report that the league took a “more threatening” tone to the MLBPA today and voiced a willingness to miss a month’s worth of regular-season games (Twitter link). The first meeting between the two parties today lasted only 40 to 45 minutes, tweets Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe, though the expectation is that negotiations will continue throughout the day.
The players have, unsurprisingly, taken that as a clear threat, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan, although there’s been no indication to this point that the union’s solidarity has begun to wane. The players have generally taken an exceptionally united front, even in the wake of what was seen as a discouraging counterproposal from the league late last week. There’s been little expectation that the league and union would be able to avoid the “disastrous outcome” of canceled regular season games (as described by commissioner Rob Manfred himself), so the only notable component of that threat is the number of games the league is willing to miss.
The Associated Press estimates that each day of canceled games would result in a collective $20.5MM of missed salary for the players, although it’s worth emphasizing that the union has envisioned just such a hardline tactic from the league for years and has been stockpiling funds to weather this type of storm. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reported over the weekend that the league’s strike find is “exponentially” larger than it has ever been (Twitter thread). The MLBPA has been holding back full licensing revenues for years to safeguard against this type of scenario, and the players also spun their licensing department into a separate company, MLB Players Inc.
In doing so, the players afforded themselves the ability to take equity in other companies. Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal profiled MLB Players Inc.’s deal with Fanatics over the summer, and they’ve also taken an equity stake in OneTeam Partners. The result is a considerable increase in the union’s funds, and while an exact dollar amount isn’t known, there are a couple pieces of information that can provide relevant benchmarks. An Associated Press report earlier this month indicates the union had as much as $178.5MM at year-end in 2020. An LM-2 Form filed to the U.S. Department of Labor suggests the number was $171.4MM for the 2020 calendar year. Either figure is dated by now, and the size of the fund only figures to have grown.
Notably, players can apply for monthly stipends in the absence of collecting their salaries. The union had provided a pair of $5,000 stipends for February and March, and Drellich and Rosenthal report that the figure will jump to $15,000 beginning on April 1 (when the regular season would be underway). Not all players will apply for that stipend, of course, but in theory even if they did, the 1200 stipends would cost the union a total of $18MM. Add in a pair of (again, theoretical) $6MM payouts for February and March, and it still only taps into $30MM of the union’s funds. Realistically, even based on the 2020 numbers and not accounting for 2021 licensing revenues, the union likely has more than enough capital to make it through the whole season paying out those stipends.
While it’s true that the sport’s biggest stars won’t bat an eye at a $15,000 monthly stipend and may not even file to collect it, that figure is crucial for the union members on the lower rung of the pay scale. Consider players who were just added to 40-man rosters over the winter and those who’ve not yet solidified themselves as big league regulars. Those players could well be looking at spending much of the season in Triple-A, and the $15,000 stipend would largely account for that minor league salary — in some cases, with Double-A and Class-A players who’ve been added to the 40-man roster over the winter, the stipends may even exceed their would-be minor league salaries.
The prospect of lost salaries doesn’t sit well with the union, but the game’s star players who are on lengthy multi-year contracts can surely weather the loss, and those who are most vulnerable are generally taken care of via the monthly stipends. There’s an undeniable middle class who’d be getting squeezed — pre-arbitration players who are solidified on the MLB roster — but those players are among the ones the union is fighting for most ardently, insisting upon increases in minimum salary and pushing for earlier paths into arbitration. Broadly speaking, there’s good reason to believe that even amid the loss of salaries, MLBPA solidarity is likely to remain strong.
Derek Jeter Leaves Marlins Organization
There’s been a seismic shift in Marlins leadership, as Derek Jeter announced today that he is leaving the organization and will no longer serve as an executive or a shareholder with the club. Jeter’s statement reads as follows:
“Today I am announcing that the Miami Marlins and I are officially ending our relationship and I will no longer serve as CEO nor as a shareholder in the Club. We had a vision five years ago to turn the Marlins franchise around, and as CEO, I have been proud to put my name and reputation on the line to make our plan a reality. Through hard work, trust and accountability, we transformed every aspect of the franchise, reshaping the workforce, and developing a long-term strategic plan for success.
That said, the vision for the future of the franchise is different than the one I signed up to lead. Now is the right time for me to step aside as a new season begins.
My family and I would like to thank our incredible staff, Marlins fans, Marlins players and the greater Miami community for welcoming us with open arms and making us feel at home. The organization is stronger today than it was five years ago, and I am thankful and grateful to have been a part of this team.”
Marlins chairman and principal owner Bruce Sherman issued his own statement on the severing of the relationship:
“The Miami Marlins and Derek Jeter announced today that they have agreed to officially end their relationship. The Marlins thank Derek for his many contributions and wish him luck in his future endeavors.
We have a deep bench of talent that will oversee both the business and baseball decisions while we work to identify a new CEO to lead our franchise. The ownership group is committed to keep investing in the future of the franchise — and we are determined to build a team that will return to the postseason and excite Marlins fans and the local community.”
Sherman and Jeter partnered as prospective buyers for the Marlins back in 2017 and eventually outbid multiple other groups to purchase the franchise from now-former owner Jeffrey Loria at a reported price of $1.2 billion. The bulk of that investment came from Sherman, though Jeter was said to have invested $25MM into the organization himself. Jeter later disputed that number, calling his stake a fair bit larger. Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci reported in February of 2018 that it was closer to $38MM in total.
The early stages of the Jeter and Sherman regime were historic for the Marlins, as the front office (then headed up by president of baseball operations Mike Hill) embarked on a dramatic reshaping of the roster and farm system that saw the Marlins’ former core of stars shipped out of town. While the return for eventual NL MVP Christian Yelich has been widely panned, that sell-off also saw the Marlins acquire Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen (among others) for Marcell Ozuna. Gallen was later traded to the D-backs for current second baseman Jazz Chisholm. The Giancarlo Stanton/Yankees trade also occurred that same winter, and a year later the Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies in a deal headlined by Sixto Sanchez.
The Marlins parted ways with Hill following the 2020 season, and Jeter played a significant role in bringing Kim Ng aboard as the sport’s first ever female general manager. The team’s first full offseason under Ng was relatively quiet, but she and the Marlins have been aggressive thus far in the 2021-22 offseason, signing Avisail Garcia (four years, $53MM), acquiring both Jacob Stallings and Joey Wendle, and signing both Alcantara (five years, $56MM) and shortstop/clubhouse leader Miguel Rojas (two years, $10MM) to contract extensions.
Even with that sequence of transactions, however, the Marlins are only projected to carry a $68.9MM payroll, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. They’re still expected to pursue an additional bat when the offseason lockout and accompanying transaction freeze are lifted, but it’s safe to say the Fish will remain near the bottom of the league in terms of overall payroll. It’s not clear whether Jeter’s departure is at all tied to the team’s payroll expectations moving forward, but it seems clear that a rift of some degree formed between Jeter and Sherman.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Jeter’s contract was set to expire later this year but was not immediately on the cusp of ending. Presumably, any potential talks about a new contract would’ve included discussions about the long-term vision for the organization, and it seems (based on Jeter’s own words) that he and Sherman no longer aligned.
Whether the reasons for Jeter’s departure eventually become clear or not, he’ll leave a lasting stamp on the organization. The handling of some early personnel changes (e.g. the Marlins’ dismissal of advisors Jeff Conine, Andre Dawson and Jack McKeon) was not without controversy, and the Marlins drew plenty of criticism after the Sherman/Jeter group immediately slashed payroll with the trades of Yelich, Stanton, Ozuna and Dee Gordon.
Five years later, however, it’s hard to argue that the Marlins aren’t in a better position. The position-player core of this roster isn’t as strong, but the Marlins now boast one of MLB’s best farm systems and perhaps the deepest collection of pitching any team has to offer. The long-term payroll has more flexibility — whether or not it’s used is another question — and the Marlins are more generally seen as a team on the rise. That surely isn’t due to Jeter alone, but beyond his hiring of Ng, Jeter also played a large role in bringing VP of scouting/player development Gary Denbo and assistant general manager Dan Greenlee over from the Yankees. Greenlee has helped to build out an analytics department that is lacking, and while Denbo has at times been a source of controversy himself, the improved farm system is a testament to his own work.
Time will tell whether additional departures are imminent, and it’s not clear what might be next for Jeter. The Hall of Famer made no indication that he plans to step away from baseball entirely, though, so it’s certainly plausible he’ll eventually take on a new challenge with another club.
Craig Mish of SportsGrid first reported the news shortly before Jeter issued his statement (Twitter link).
Latest On Clayton Kershaw
The baseball world’s focus continues to fixate on the MLB lockout and today’s MLB-imposed deadline, but whenever the lockout lifts, the ensuing flurry of free-agent and trade activity has the potential to be historic. One of the most notable names among the yet-unsigned players on the market is three-time Cy Young winner and 2014 NL MVP Clayton Kershaw, who became a free agent for the first time at season’s end. The prevailing wisdom since he hit the market has been that Kershaw would either return to the Dodgers or sign with the Rangers, as Kershaw’s Dallas home is a short drive from Arlington’s Globe Life Field.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today touched on that fact in his latest MLB notebook over the weekend, writing that a former teammate of Kershaw’s expects him to either sign with the Rangers or retire. That’s just one third party’s opinion, of course, and that identifier itself is rather vague. (“Former teammate” could range from Corey Seager to Ted Lilly, after all.) It’s perhaps an anecdotal note, but any clues as to the eventual decision of a future Hall of Famer (and any shreds of offseason normalcy) are of particular intrigue.
It’s already been a huge offseason for the Rangers, who’ve signed Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun as they shift gears from an abbreviated rebuild to a clear win-now approach. Despite doling out a more than a half-billion dollars in free agent contracts, however, the Rangers still ought to have the financial wherewithal to add Kershaw.
The Rangers are projected for a payroll of roughly $127MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, and they have only $80.25MM in guaranteed 2023 contracts to consider. Texas ran a $165MM payroll as recently as 2017 and, from 2014-18, averaged a $146.5MM Opening Day payroll. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggested multiple times in recent weeks that a Kershaw match could be in the cards, though the implication in Grant’s latest mailbag piece was that Kershaw would be their final major free-agent expenditure if he did sign (likely at an annual salary north of $20MM).
All that said, while the possibility of Kershaw changing teams is a fascinating one on which to speculate, there’s been no firm indicator that he won’t return to the Dodgers. Kershaw himself appeared on the Dan Patrick Show earlier this month and spoke broadly about the allure of playing on a perennial contender, even if it came with the difficulty of enduring repeated playoff exits (YouTube link).
Kershaw didn’t do much to tip his hand, but he did note that for the Dodgers, “the World Series is the expectation” every year. Dodger fans hoping for a reunion will surely point out the obvious: that has not been the case for the Rangers. Of course, there are broader factors at play. Kershaw noted in that interview with Patrick that he and his wife welcomed their fourth child over the winter, and proximity to his young family will naturally play a major role in Kershaw’s decision.
It’s worth noting, too, that Kershaw certainly didn’t sound like a player who had retirement on his mind.
“We have to continue to prepare like we’re going to play,” Kershaw said when asked how the lockout impacts his preparation for the season. “…I’m continuing to prepare like we’re going to start on time, but each day it just seems like we’re getting further and further from that.”
Latest On Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman‘s ultimate free-agent destination has been one of the more fascinating storylines of the offseason. At the outset of free agency, most felt a reunion with the Braves was a fait accompli, but as Freeman’s stay on the market has lingered, there’s been increasing speculation about him signing elsewhere.
We can’t know when we’ll get a resolution, thanks to the ongoing lockout, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that there’s an industry sense that Freeman will act quickly once the transaction freeze lifts. Specifically, Sherman suggests that within 48 hours of the freeze lifting, Freeman’s “path will be publicly known.” The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested something similar, albeit without the specific timeline, when writing late last month that both Freeman and the Braves could “act quickly” post-lockout.
Freeman’s fate is a renewed talking point among Braves fans in the wake of this morning’s earnings report from Liberty Media, which owns the Braves, although the newly available public insight into the team’s financials likely has little to no impact on their pursuit of Freeman. It’s always been a question of whether ownership and/or the front office deems Freeman’s asking price to be a prudent long-term move for the organization, and the team knew those figures would be going public at this point.
Perhaps more interesting, however, is Sherman’s suggestion that one theoretical Freeman suitor, the Blue Jays, has been given ownership approval for a “large increase in payroll” even after the additions of George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios over the past year-plus. The Jays’ desire to add a left-handed bat to the mix isn’t exactly a new revelation; they reportedly pursued Corey Seager prior to his deal with the Rangers and have been speculatively tied to names like Kyle Schwarber and the since-retired Kyle Seager. The Jays were even linked to Freeman as far back as Nov. 30. More recently, Rosenthal said on Sportsnet that he expects the Jays to be involved on Freeman whenever the lockout lifts (video link).
Toronto is just one speculative alternative, and Freeman has also been heavily linked to the Dodgers and Yankees in addition to the incumbent Braves. ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested in a recent appearance on the Michael Kay Show (audio link, with Freeman talk starting around 11 minutes) that the Mets at least “checked in” on Freeman prior to the lockout, although SNY’s Andy Martino wrote this morning that the chances of a Freeman/Mets deal coming together border on nonexistent. Olney, too, mentions the Blue Jays as a team that has inquired on Freeman (along with the Dodgers), and he more broadly discusses a growing industry sentiment that Freeman won’t return to the Braves.
The Braves’ best offer to this point has reportedly been a five-year, $135MM contract. He’s said to be eyeing a six-year pact on the heels of another outstanding season. Freeman followed up his 2020 NL MVP Award with a .300/.393/.503 showing and 31 home runs during the regular season, plus a .304/.420/.625 line with five home runs in 69 postseason plate appearances. It was yet another impressive season for the ever-reliable first baseman, who has a wRC+ of 132 or better (indicating he’s been at least 32 percentage points more productive than the league average hitter) every year since 2013.
It’s certainly possible the Braves and Freeman can yet bridge the gap that remained in talks through the imposition of the lockout. Yet Atlanta has at least explored some alternatives. The Braves reportedly looked into Anthony Rizzo as a free agent possibility, and they’ve been mentioned as a potential trade partner with the A’s on Matt Olson on multiple occasions. Sherman speaks with a few agents and one rival executive who speculate that Atlanta could even pivot to pursuing an Olson trade between the time the lockout is lifted and when Freeman signs. The executive notes that someone like Kyle Wright — a big league ready starter who was formerly a top five draftee and highly-regarded prospect — fits the mold of the near-MLB talent the A’s could look for in an Olson deal. Wright no longer has the trade value to center a package that could persuade the A’s to part with Olson, but he’d be a sensible option for Oakland to explore as an ancillary piece in talks with Atlanta.
That’s conjecture from people outside the Atlanta organization, to be clear. What president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff have planned for the post-lockout scramble won’t become evident until offseason activity actually resumes. Yet the growing industry chatter reinforces that Freeman remaining in Atlanta may not be the lock many anticipated as the Braves entered the offseason riding high on a World Series title, particularly as other possible suitors loom.
Mets, Felix Pena Agree To Minor League Deal
The Mets have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Felix Pena, per the team’s transactions log. The former Cubs and Angels righty will presumably be in big league camp whenever it opens and will give New York some valuable depth in either the rotation or the bullpen. Pena was eligible to sign during the lockout because he was released by the Angels in September and did not return to a 40-man roster before season’s end.
Pena, who turns 32 today, was a quality swingman with the Halos from 2018-20, logging a combined 215 2/3 innings of 4.34 ERA ball with a 23.6% strikeout rate, a 7.7% walk rate and a 43.4% ground-ball rate. Those strikeout and grounder rates are both roughly in line with the league averages, while Pena’s walk rate checked in better than average. He’s not a flamethrowing power arm, but Pena sat 92.3 mph on his heater during that three-year stretch in Anaheim and has made 24 starts at the MLB level in addition to another 80 relief outings. He’s worked 142 innings in those 80 bullpen appearances, so he’s no stranger to multi-inning work.
A torn ACL ended Pena’s season in Aug. 2019, but he bounced back with a solid showing in the shortened 2020 schedule (4.05 ERA in 26 2/3 frames). His 2021 bordered on nightmarish, however. Pena missed the first six weeks of the season owing to a hamstring injury and was shelled for seven runs in 1 2/3 innings in his first two appearances upon returning. The Angels passed him through outright waivers not long after, and Pena went on to yield 61 earned runs through 68 1/3 innings in Triple-A Salt Lake before being released. He’s been lights out in the Dominican Winter League this offseason, though, posting a 1.91 ERA and a 27-to-7 K/BB ratio in 33 innings.
At present, the Mets’ rotation is expected to consist of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker, with options like Trevor Williams, David Peterson and Tylor Megill vying for the fifth spot. It’s possible one or more of those current fifth-starter candidates could land in a deep group of relievers that’ll be headlined by Edwin Diaz, Trevor May, Seth Lugo and Miguel Castro.
The Mets are widely expected to add another established arm to the rotation whenever the lockout ends, and there’s probably room for a lefty in the bullpen as well (particularly following the departure of Aaron Loup). Pena can compete for a long relief spot in the bullpen or head to Triple-A Syracuse, where he’ll serve as a quality depth option. In a total of 260 2/3 innings, Pena carries a 4.66 ERA and 4.05 SIERA to go along with strikeout, walk and ground-ball tendencies that are all within arm’s reach of the league average.
Liberty Media Reports Substantial Revenue Increase For Braves
As one of just two MLB clubs owned by a publicly traded company, the Braves are the rare team whose books are regularly opened to the public. That leads to some yearly insight into the team’s revenues and operating budget. This morning, Liberty Media announced its 2021 earnings, reporting $568MM in total Braves revenue, $104MM in OIBDA (operating income before debt and amortization) and a $20MM operating income (Twitter links via Eric Fisher of SportBusiness Group and Jeff Passan of ESPN, the latter of whom has screenshots of the report).
Those numbers are specific to the Braves, not Liberty Media as a whole, and they represent (as one would expect) marked increases over the previous year’s revenues, when the MLB season was played without fans and shortened to 60 games in length. In 2020, Liberty reported a total of $178MM in revenue and operating losses both in OIBDA (-$53MM) and operating income (-$128MM).
It’s worth pointing out, too, that the Braves and other MLB teams opened the season without home stadiums at full capacity — although the Braves were the first team to shift to full capacity near the end of April. Still, their season began with Truist Park at 33% capacity for their initial seven-game homestand and moved to 50% capacity for their second homestand — another seven-game set later in the month. Atlanta averaged 13,006 fans per game during that first homestand (per the attendance figures available at Baseball-Reference) and 19,224 fans per day in that second homestand (which included a seven-inning doubleheader). Over the remainder of the season, the Braves averaged 32,181 fans per game, according to those same attendance figures.
Of course, while the Braves, like every other team, surely lost some early-season gate revenue due to capacity restrictions of varying levels, the Braves also reeled in more postseason revenue than any other organization in the sport. Truist Park hosted eight playoff contests as the Braves eventually took home a World Series championship. Liberty Media lists 79 regular-season home games (accounting for a pair of doubleheaders) and eight postseason home games, with a reported $6MM in “baseball revenue” (not “profit”) per home game.
Future regular-season earnings for the Braves seem quite likely to rise — not only because they’ll very likely be able to open the 2022 season at full capacity but also because the team’s 2021 success has paved the way for a considerable hike in ticket sales. Liberty Media president Greg Maffei said today that the Braves’ 2022 season ticket sales are already the highest they’ve been since 2000 (Twitter link via Jeff Schultz of The Athletic). David O’Brien of The Athletic adds that premium seating at Truist Park has already been sold out.
The earnings report from Liberty Media comes at a time when eyes are more fixated on the financial component of the game than ever before. Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association are deadlocked in labor strife that, at its core, boils down to how the two parties ought to divide the billions of dollars generated by the league on a yearly basis. Commissioner Rob Manfred has already taken a great deal of flak for his claims that the “return on those investments (into owning a baseball team) is below what you’d expect to get in the stock market,” and his critics have already meted out a fresh set of barbs on social media today in the wake of Liberty’s books being opened.
Braves fans, in particular, are taking note of the team’s financials, as an understandably vocal majority has grown frustrated with the lack of a new contract for franchise cornerstone Freddie Freeman. Today’s report will do little to deter fans’ belief that the team can “afford” to re-sign Freeman, but that does not mean that ownership and/or general manager Alex Anthopoulos will make it happen at all costs. It’s never really been a question of whether the Braves have the pure funds to outbid the field, after all, but rather one of whether ownership is comfortable making a commitment of that magnitude and perhaps whether the front office deems it to be prudent.
With regard to the labor discord, both the league and the union will interpret the figures differently for the purposes of negotiations. Ownership will presumably point to the $20MM operating income. The union will likely more heavily weight the OIBDA and note that these figures do not include (as pointed out by Ben Nicholson-Smith, on Twitter) tax benefits/write-offs, baseball-adjacent revenues from The Battery (the mixed-use development surrounding Truist Park) or the general appreciation in franchise value. The Battery, according to Liberty’s figures, generated an additional $42MM in revenue and added another $7MM onto the Braves’ OIBDA (for a total of $111MM). At the end of the day, while it’s new information for fans and the MLBPA, the league has surely been aware of these figures and their timeline for release and already has a sense of the role the specifics will play in negotiations.
AL East Notes: Anderson, Whitlock, Barnes
Rays righty Nick Anderson, on the mend from surgery that installed a brace to stabilize a damaged ligament in his elbow, tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that he’s progressing through rehab and currently throwing from 60 feet. The 31-year-old originally sustained a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament in Spring Training 2021 but opted for rehab rather than Tommy John surgery after both the Rays’ medical staff and renowned surgeon Dr. Keith Meister advised that course of treatment. He returned to the big leagues in September but didn’t look close to his 2019-20 form in doing so. Anderson acknowledged that had he initially opted for surgery, he might be in a better place, rehab-wise, than he currently is, but explained that the decision is never so easy.
“Obviously, looking back at it, I’m like, well, shoot, I should have just got cut open right away when I had the injury,” says Anderson. “That would have solved that and I would have been back like the beginning of this year. But what do you do? You don’t ever really know. You just make a choice and roll with it, and hope it’s the right one.” Topkin notes that Anderson is expected back at some point in the middle of the 2021 season.
Some more from the division…
- Red Sox right-hander Garrett Whitlock proved to be a sensational find in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, emerging as a key reliever who helped fuel Boston’s return to the postseason in 2021. Whitlock, who’s been a starter for the majority of his career, tells Stan Grossfield of the Boston Globe that he enjoys starting and “love[s] the routine behind it and everything,” but he took a team-first approach in adding that the competitor in him will work in any role he’s asked. The Sox, however, clearly haven’t ruled out the possibility of Whitlock transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation at some point, though, as the right-hander himself explained. “They told me to come in prepared to be, like, fighting for a starting job, and they’ll reevaluate it from there,” says Whitlock. “So I’m going to build up and I’m going to go in and be as prepared as I can be.” The comments from Whitlock come amid a much lengthier profile of the right-hander — an interesting look at his back story and journey to the Majors, wherein he even opines that Tommy John surgery “saved his life” by giving him the needed downtime for valuable introspection and to get into a better place, mentally, than he had been previously.
- Matt Barnes‘ 2021 was a tale of two seasons, as the Red Sox righty pitched to a dominant 2.25 ERA with a 42% strikeout rate through his first 44 innings before his performance fell off a cliff. Barnes yielded a dozen runs, surrendered four homers and walked nine batters in his final 10 2/3 innings of the season — a stretch of 10.13 ERA ball that led to what would’ve previously been an unthinkable omission from the postseason roster. Barnes, who signed a two-year extension worth $18.75MM in the midst of that hot streak during July, spoke to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com about the manner in which his season spiraled out of control and expressed confidence in a 2022 rebound. Barnes called it the “craziest year of his life” and a “perfect storm” of circumstances that led to his struggles, beginning with the development of some bad habits when he’d pitched quite a bit in a short period of time. He then missed more than two weeks after a positive Covid-19 test and feels he “ran out of time” to recalibrate and get back into form. He’s owed $7.25MM in 2022 and $7.5MM in 2023 before the Sox must decide on an $8MM option for 2024, so a return to the form he showed up through early August is particularly important for both Barnes and the club.