Click here read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Angels Fire Pitching Coach Doug White, Bench Coach Josh Paul
3:20pm: The Angels announced that both White and bench coach Josh Paul have been informed that they will not be returning for the 2020 season.
3:16pm: Maria Torres of the L.A. Times tweets that “numerous” pitchers had trouble adjusting to White’s ideas, including younger arms like Jaime Barria and Jose Suarez.
3:00pm: The Angels have fired pitching coach Doug White, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (via Twitter). His dimissal comes one day after the team announced that Brad Ausmus would not return as manager in 2020. Like Ausmus, White’s tenure with the Angels will last just one season.
Prior to joining the Angels, White served as the bullpen coach for the Astros, though he only served one season in that role as well. He’d previously spent time as a minor league pitching coach and minor league pitching coordinator in the Houston system in addition to a half-decade’s worth of experience as a minor league coach with the Cardinals.
White was one of several members of the Astros’ 2018 field staff to be hired by other organizations, as other organizations looked to build out their coaching staffs with key members of one of the game’s most progressive and successful teams.
The match between White and the Halos seemingly didn’t bear fruit, though, as the team’s ERA, FIP, xFIP, walk rate and ground-ball rate all went in the wrong direction from 2018. Laying all of that blame on White isn’t fair, of course, as numerous external factors impacted the Angels’ results on the mound (injuries and, most notably, the death of Tyler Skaggs among them). But coaches must more than ever be on the same page with a manager, front office and analytics staff, and those relationships are often every bit as important as the team’s on-field results.
In the case of White, he was hired 10 days after Ausmus, so perhaps with the club simply believes that the incoming manager — widely speculated to be Joe Maddon — should have the opportunity to hand-pick his own pitching coach to ensure that the staff’s vision aligns as closely as possible.
Zaidi On Manager Search, Free Agency, Park Dimensions
Farhan Zaidi’s first season as Giants president of baseball operations is in the books, and he’ll now embark on what could very well be a busier offseason than the one he navigated last year. The Giants will need to hire a replacement for longtime manager Bruce Bochy, conduct a search to add a general manager to work under Zaidi and, of course, address a roster that could lose Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith and several other free agents.
Zaidi met with the media today in a postmortem press conference, divulging that he intends to interview roughly six to eight external candidates as part of the club’s managerial search (Twitter links via Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle and Maria Guardado of MLB.com). He also confirmed that both bench coach Hensley Meulens and third base coach Ron Wotus will be interviewed as potential successors to Bochy. Prior managerial experience won’t be a necessity, though Zaidi also implied that it’d be important.
As for the rest of the coaching staff, no determinations will be made until a new skipper is in place. As such, the Giants’ coaches are free to interview elsewhere should other teams come calling. As is the case with during any managerial search, it seems safe to bet that there’ll be a fair bit of turnover in the Giants’ dugout. The search for a GM to work alongside Zaidi in heading up the baseball ops department will be conducted “concurrently” with the search for a new manager, Schulman tweets.
With regard to the on-field product, the Giants stand to lose not only Bumgarner and Smith, but also left-hander Tony Watson, third baseman Pablo Sandoval, catcher Stephen Vogt and lefty Fernando Abad. The organization has interest (presumably to varying extents) in retaining each of its free agents, tweets Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic, though Zaidi also anticipates that those players will want to explore the open market. There was no mention of qualifying offers, but Bumgarner stands out as a clear and obvious recipient (and rejector) of an eventual QO. Smith, too, could potentially merit consideration in that regard, given the dominant season he had as the team’s closer. Vogt has previously expressed interest in returning to the Giants, although he and the other impending free agents will surely want to see who is eventually tabbed as Bochy’s successor before making a commitment.
How aggressively Zaidi and his staff will pursue reunions with that group and potential matches with other free agents can’t be known at this point. Zaidi, Schulman tweets, voiced a willingness to deal from the farm system and to look at top-end starters, but he also stressed the importance of developing arms internally.
That’s an understandable point of emphasis not only because it’s a mantra for most clubs in the league but also because the Giants’ young arms didn’t perform well in 2019; each of Tyler Beede, Dereck Rodriguez, Shaun Anderson, Logan Webb, Conner Menez and Andrew Suarez struggled in auditions in the MLB rotation this year. Rodriguez and Suarez looked like potential long-term fits when they had unexpectedly strong seasons in 2018, making this year’s steps backward all the more discouraging.
That group, presumably, will have a chance at factoring into next year’s pitching staff, though it seems clear that some winter additions are in the offing. Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto are the only returning veterans, which should leave the Giants with ample room to supplement the rotation either via trade or free agency.
Augmenting the lineup will also be a point of focus, per Zaidi, who unsurprisingly indicated that adding power to the lineup will be a priority (Twitter link via Schulman). The Giants’ 167 home runs ranked 26th among 30 MLB clubs in 2019, and their .153 isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) was tied with the White Sox for third-worst in all of baseball. Alex Dickerson, acquired in a minor trade with the Padres in June, and Mike Yastrzemski, acquired from the Orioles in a minor Spring Training swap, were the team’s most productive hitters in 2019. Both are already 29 years old without any sort of sustained big league track record.
San Francisco carried a payroll north of $186MM in 2019 but only has $109MM in guaranteed money on the books for next season, which should further allow Zaidi to be creative to the extent he deems appropriate. The Giants’ only arbitration-eligible players are Kevin Pillar, Donovan Solano, Kyle Barraclough and Dickerson, so the payroll shouldn’t rise too much even when factoring in arbitration raises (particularly since that group contains some potential non-tender candidates).
While it seems like there’ll be money to play with, it’s also worth recalling that last week’s comments from Giants CEO Larry Baer didn’t exactly sound like a portent for aggressive offseason spending. In discussing the Giants’ 2010-14 run of dominance, Baer spoke of how the club relied on free agency as a complementary means of bolstering a roster that had largely consisted of homegrown pieces; the same, he noted, was true of Zaidi’s teams in Oakland and in Los Angeles. There’s little reason for the organization to tip its hand right now even if a strong run at Bumgarner or other free agents is on the docket, but there’s been no emphatic declaration to this point, either.
Beyond the innumerable personnel decisions the Giants will consider in the coming months, there’s been plenty of talk about changes to the dimensions of Oracle Park. While no final outcome was announced, Zaidi confirmed today that the organization has “made a lot of progress on designs that would have [the bullpens] move out to the outfield,” tweets Kerry Crowley of the San Jose Mercury News. Exact alterations aren’t yet determined, but Baer indicated last week that the club isn’t looking to turn Oracle Park into a hitter-friendly setting.
Orioles Claim Cole Sulser
The Orioles announced that they’ve claimed right-handed reliever Cole Sulser off waivers from the Rays. Baltimore had an opening on its 40-man roster after outrighting fellow righty Chandler Shepherd yesterday.
Sulser, 29, went from the Indians to the Rays in the three-team Edwin Encarnacion/Carlos Santana/Yandy Diaz/Jake Bauers deal last offseason. The former 25th-round pick made his MLB debut with Tampa Bay this season and tossed 7 1/3 scoreless innings with just five hits and three walks against nine strikeouts. That was a continuation of a strong season in Triple-A, where Sulser worked 66 innings with a 3.27 ERA, 12.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 31.6 percent ground-ball rate.
Sulser averaged 93.4 mph on his heater in his brief MLB tenure this season, complementing that pitch with an 86.7 mph slider and a much more occasional changeup. He has a decent track record of missing bats in the upper minors despite never getting an opportunity with the Indians. Sulser went unclaimed in last year’s Rule 5 Draft, but he’s managed to elevate his profile in 2019. While he’s too old to be deemed a “prospect,” given that he’ll turn 30 next March, Sulser will have all three minor league option years remaining beyond this season and looks the part of a legitimately intriguing late bloomer. The Rays, who have an extremely crowded 40-man roster, cut him loose over the weekend to get the aforementioned Diaz back on the roster in advance of this week’s AL Wild Card game.
Angels Fire Brad Ausmus
1:55pm: Today’s news conference was canceled, but Eppler will speak to the media on a conference call tomorrow, per Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. Bollinger adds that Eppler himself will be retained.
1:10pm: The Angels have formally announced that Ausmus will not manage the team in 2020.
12:52pm: The Angels have decided to fire Brad Ausmus less than a year after naming him manager, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via Twitter). The report comes just one day after MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that the Angels were “contemplating” Ausmus’ job status. The Angels have a press conference scheduled for this afternoon.
Given the sudden nature of the move and the fact that the Cubs parted ways with Joe Maddon over the weekend, speculation will surely abound that Maddon is now the Angels’ top target. The 65-year-old Maddon spent more than a decade as a coach on the Angels’ Major League staff and even served as interim manager for the Halos in two different seasons, totaling 51 games at the helm.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that “a number of sources” believe Maddon will land with the Angels, although he adds that it is not yet set in stone. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times also suggests that clearing way for Maddon would be one of the only reasons the Angels would make the move at this time (Twitter link).
It’s a brutal blow for Ausmus, whose tenure in the dugout will last only one season despite signing a three-year contract just 49 weeks ago. The former All-Star catcher and three-time Gold Glove winner previously spent four seasons managing the Tigers and spent a year between managerial stints as a special assistant to Angels general manager Billy Eppler. At the time, it seemed possible that Ausmus was being groomed as an heir-apparent to manager Mike Scioscia, and whether that was actually the case, matters played out in exactly that fashion. Now, if Maddon lands with the Angels as many anticipate, Ausmus will meet the same fate as Rick Renteria — a first-year manager who is ousted with multiple years remaining on his contract because of Maddon’s sudden availability.
The Angels certainly didn’t produce the results they hoped in 2019, finishing out the season with a 72-90 record. But Ausmus was at the helm for one of what was surely one of the most tumultuous and difficult seasons in franchise history, guiding the team through the tragic loss of perhaps the heart of its clubhouse: left-hander Tyler Skaggs. Indeed, Eppler said in a statement announcing the move that Ausmus “navigated this franchise through one of its most difficult seasons with class and professionalism.”
The Angels were also plagued by additional injuries up and down the roster (again), as Mike Trout, Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton, Andrew Heaney, Shohei Ohtani, Tommy La Stella and others were absent for significant stretches of time. That’s not to say that Ausmus had no hand in the team’s lackluster performance, but it’s difficult to see how any manager could’ve found success with the hand he was dealt.
If there’s a silver lining for Ausmus, perhaps it’s that there appears to be a perhaps record level of managerial openings for him to explore around the league — assuming he wants to continue managing. The Padres (Andy Green) and Pirates (Clint Hurdle) have already fired their managers, and the Cubs, of course, aren’t bringing back Maddon. The Royals (Ned Yost) and Giants (Bruce Bochy) have both seen their longtime skippers retire, and it’s also possible that the Mets (Mickey Callaway) and/or the Phillies (Gabe Kapler) elect to move on from their current managers. Ausmus presumably wouldn’t be a candidate for all of those clubs, but he’ll surely garner some interviews if he seeks out another opportunity.
Red Sox CEO On Betts, JDM, Luxury Tax
Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy met with the media for a postmortem on the 2019 season Monday. At a time when the future of superstars Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez is uncertain — Betts is a free agent after 2020 who has repeatedly voiced a desire to test the open market, while Martinez can opt out of the final three seasons of his contract next month — Kennedy acknowledged that there “is a way” to keep both Betts and Martinez on the roster but added that doing so “will be difficult” (Twitter links via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe).
Such comments only figure to fuel speculation that Betts could be made available in a what would be a blockbuster trade this winter, although the Sox have given no firm indication that he’ll be shopped. Betts earned $20MM this season in just his second trip through the arbitration process, and it’s likely that his salary will jump into the $30MM range next year. Betts didn’t replicate last year’s MVP production nevertheless put together yet another brilliant all-around season. In 706 trips to the plate, the 26-year-old batted .295/.391/.524 with 29 home runs, 40 doubles, five triples and 16 stolen bases. He posted flat-out elite defensive marks, per virtually every metric, for the fourth consecutive season, as well: +16 Defensive Runs Saved, +13.3 Ultimate Zone Rating, +7 Outs Above Average.
As for Martinez, he’s signed for another three years at a total of $62.5MM. He’ll receive a $2.5MM buyout if he opts out of the deal this offseason, meaning he’d need “only” to top a three-year, $60MM commitment in free agency in order to come out ahead. That’s not a given, as he’d surely be hit with a qualifying offer and face some questions about his defensive abilities (or lack thereof) when negotiating with National League clubs. But, asked just last night about sticking in Boston or searching for what would perhaps be his fifth team in five seasons, Martinez replied that he “kind of like[s]” moving around and wouldn’t mind doing so again if need be.
Payroll became an issue with the Red Sox last year when the team was quite clearly doing everything in its power to avoid crossing the third and final luxury tax threshold in free agency. Boston did nothing to address its bullpen outside of some low-profile rolls of the dice, and the team’s lack of bullpen depth proved costly in the long run. Still, significant additions would’ve come with a 75 percent dollar-for-dollar luxury hit, and the Boston ownership group demonstrated that even an organization with that level of deep pockets has its limits.
The Red Sox currently have “only” about $151MM counting against their luxury tax bill in 2020. That’s well south of the $208MM cutoff for the baseline luxury threshold, but that $151MM projection only includes currently guaranteed contracts. In other words, it doesn’t yet factor in arbitration raises for players whose salaries have yet to be determined. Not only will Betts be in line for an enormous raise on this year’s $20MM salary, but the Red Sox will also need to negotiate raises for Eduardo Rodriguez ($4.325MM in 2019), Brandon Workman ($1.15MM), Jackie Bradley Jr. ($8.55MM), Sandy Leon ($2.475MM), Steven Wright ($1.375MM), Matt Barnes ($1.6MM), Heath Hembree ($1.3125MM) and Andrew Benintendi ($717K). Obviously, some of those players could be traded or non-tendered, thus eliminating the need to worry about potential raises.
One of the biggest questions facing ownership is whether the team is comfortable paying the luxury tax for what would be a third consecutive season. The number of successive seasons is important, because penalties escalate with each consecutive year above the line. As a third-time offender, the Red Sox would be subject to a 50 percent luxury tax for every dollar spent over $208MM. They were taxed at a 30 percent rate in 2019 and 20 percent in 2018.
Kennedy plainly stated today that dropping beneath the luxury tax base of $208MM is a “goal but not a mandate” (Twitter link via Speier). The Red Sox, of course, are in the process of seeking out a new leader for their baseball operations department after firing Dave Dombrowski earlier this month, but the quartet that is heading up baseball ops an on interim basis — assistant GMs Eddie Romero, Brian O’Halloran, Zack Scott and Raquel Ferreria — have discussed scenarios in which they’d exceed the luxury tax in early discussions surrounding the team’s offseason approach and 2020 plans.
Obviously, the health and well-being of the team’s top two starting pitchers will be paramount not only when forecasting the team’s 2020 playoff chances but also in determining what types of additions need to be made over the winter. To that end, O’Halloran informed reporters today that the club anticipates both Chris Sale and David Price will be ready for Spring Training. If so, they’d return to join right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and the aforementioned Rodriguez. Complicating matters for the Sox is that each of Sale, Price and Eovaldi delivered mixed results, at best, throughout injury-shortened seasons and now represent question marks more than sure things. Not only will the team need to foster some additional depth, but adding a reliable source of innings to help round out the rotation seems likely to be a goal.
If the Sox do indeed aspire to dip back below the tax line, then there could be a wide-ranging series of changes to the roster this winter. However, nothing from today’s press conference seems to suggest that any sort of rebuild is in the offing. O’Halloran noted that while resetting the luxury line at some point would obviously be beneficial, the club’s goal is to build a championship-caliber roster (Twitter link).
Maddon Hopes To Manage Another Three To Five Seasons
Joe Maddon is out as the Cubs’ manager, but the 65-year-old isn’t eyeing retirement. Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes that Maddon hopes to manage for another three to five seasons and is open to signing on with rebuilding clubs and contenders alike.
“I look at it, it’s got to be a good fit,” said the three-time Manager of the Year winner. “Philosophically, you’ve got to be on the same page. You’ve got to like the people you’re going to work with. I’m wide open.”
There are currently four teams with managerial openings that could target Maddon. Bruce Bochy and Ned Yost announced their retirement as managers of the Giants and Royals, respectively, while the Pirates have fired Clint Hurdle and the Padres have fired Andy Green. Additional openings will surely arise; the Mets’ Mickey Callaway and the Phillies’ Gabe Kapler are both on the proverbial hot seat following disappointing showings in the NL East. There’s also been some speculation about a quick changing of the guard for the Angels, who hired Brad Ausmus less than one year ago.
Maddon has been a full-time manager with two teams — the Rays and the Cubs — but that experience has exposed him to a wide-ranging spectrum of clubs. His time with Tampa Bay familiarized him with a rebuilding club early on, as he was hired in 2006, and that job also created experience in dealing with a low-payroll organization. On the flip-side of things, Maddon was hired by the Cubs at a time when the team was emerging from its rebuild and had clear-cut postseason hopes. He also dealt with managing a number of well-compensated veterans on a big payroll club that often utilized those highly paid veterans in more limited roles than the ones to which they’d previously grown accustomed.
Maintaining a positive clubhouse in that type of setting can come with challenges, but Maddon seemingly never lost the respect of his players. Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo tells Nightengale that Maddon is a “walking, living legend” who will be missed. “Joe changed my life,” says Rizzo. “Changed my career. I love him like a dad. The guy understands the human element of this game more than anyone I’ve been around. I’ll be forever grateful to him.” Tony Andracki of NBC Sports Chicago provides additional quotes from Jon Lester, Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist and Ian Happ — each of whom heaps praise onto Maddon and the job that he’s done in his time with the team.
It stands to reason that as a well-respected dugout veteran with a recent World Series championship and a lifetime 1252-1068 record, Maddon will have little difficulty finding a new job in 2020 and beyond. It’s worth noting that if the Halos do decide to move on from Ausmus, Maddon has considerable ties to that organization. Maddon served as a first base coach and bench coach with the Angels for more than a decade and was also the team’s interim manager in two different seasons, compiling a 27-24 record in those temporary appointments.
Orioles Notes: Anderson, Mancini, Hays
Brady Anderson, who formerly served as the Orioles’ vice president of baseball operations, is “stepping aside” and leaving the organization, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports (via Twitter). Anderson, Gary Rajsich and Brian Graham were entrusted with interim oversight of the baseball operations department in Baltimore following the dismissal of GM Dan Duquette last winter, and less than a year later, the entire trio is gone from the organization. Rajsich’s contract wasn’t renewed for the 2019 season, while Graham was fired not long after new GM Mike Elias was hired.
Under the previous front-office regime, Anderson had seemingly risen to a fairly prominent standing. It’s been widely reported that he played a major role in the team’s signings of both Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner late in the 2018-19 offseason, although the Cobb signing has gone particularly awry. His role under Elias had been considerably less integral from a baseball operations vantage point, though; Anderson served in an advisory role with the team’s conditioning and fitness programs, per Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun. Whatever role the Orioles might’ve had in mind for him in 2020, if any, it seems that Anderson instead preferred to explore potential new opportunities.
A couple more notes out of Baltimore…
- Another 100-loss season hasn’t swayed Trey Mancini’s commitment to the Orioles, writes Meoli in a separate column. The Orioles’ 2019 leader in home runs (35), Mancini says that his desire to remain in Baltimore has “never wavered at all.” The 27-year-old slugger, who’ll turn 28 next March, likes the direction the team is headed under Elias & Co. and has firmly bought into the Orioles’ rebuilding efforts. Mancini’s own improvement at the plate has been one of the biggest positives with regard to the club’s future outlook. His 2018 season yielded an ugly .242/.299/.416 batting line, but Mancini erupted with a .291/.364/.535 batting line to go along with those 35 homers in 2019. He also improved his walk rate by 2.4 percent and cut his strikeout rate by three percent. He’ll be in for quite the pay increase this winter in his first offseason of arbitration eligibility and is under club control through the 2022 season. However, Mancini has been vocal about hoping to remain in Baltimore, so perhaps the two sides will discuss the possibility of a longer-term arrangement next spring.
- Outfielder Austin Hays had been slated to play in the Arizona Fall League, but the Orioles have “changed their plans” for the resurgent top prospect, MLB.com’s Joe Trezza tweets. Hays won’t play in the AFL after all, but the 24-year-old certainly looks to have rebuilt his stock with a bounceback year. Injury limited Hays to just 75 unproductive games in 2018, but he suited up for 108 games across four minor league levels and the Majors in 2019. Hays reemerged at the MLB level in September, hitting .309/.373/.574 with four home runs in 75 plate appearances down the stretch. He’ll head into Spring Training as one of the favorites (if not the favorite) to open the 2020 season in center field.
Jonathan Villar’s Second-Half Surge
Jonathan Villar’s name was barely kicked around the rumor circuit prior to this year’s trade deadline, with the Cubs standing out as the only team reported to have shown much interest. That doesn’t mean that Villar wasn’t discussed with other clubs, of course. But when an affordable veteran ($4.825MM) with only one and a half seasons of control remaining on one of the game’s worst teams doesn’t change hands at the deadline, it’s likely that interest in him was generally tepid.
Really, there weren’t many infielders who changed hands at all on this year’s trade market. Jesus Aguilar, Scooter Gennett and Tony Kemp were traded largely for depth purposes. Prospects like Mauricio Dubon, Nick Solak and Josh Rojas were moved as hopeful long-term pieces. Among established middle infielders, Eric Sogard might’ve been the most consequential player traded. (Freddy Galvis later changed hands via August waiver claim.)
It stands to reason that not many teams were keen on making middle-infield upgrades, but that won’t be as true in the winter when all 29 other teams are taking a fresh look at their roster. And Villar has been nothing short of brilliant since the deadline passed, which certainly can’t hurt the Orioles’ chances of finding a team willing to part with some future in exchange for his final season of club control.
Villar, 29 next May, was already in the midst of a solid season in late July. On the morning of July 31, he carried a .266/.329/.425 batting line, 13 home runs and 23 steals on the season. For a middle infielder with ample experience at both positions — even if he’s not a great defender at either — that’s respectable output. Villar had a 98 wRC+ at that point, whereas the league-average second baseman was at 93. Essentially, Villar had been about five percent better than an average-hitting second baseman and about two percent worse than an average shortstop (100 wRC+ in 2019).
Since that time? Villar has improved across the board. He’s hitting .295/.364/.524 with 11 homers, nine doubles, three triples and 16 stolen bases (in 19 tries). Villar has punched out a slight bit more over the season’s final two months, but his overall strikeout rate on the season (24.9 percent) has improved for the second straight year since his career-worst 30.3 percent in 2017. His average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and launch angle are all below average but have all improved for the second straight season. And while Villar isn’t the burner one might expect for someone with his stolen-base totals, he’s been highly efficient across the past two seasons, going 74-of-88 in that regard (84.1 percent).
Thanks to the strength of his second half, Villar’s offensive output (108 wRC+) now checks in 15 percent better than the average second baseman and eight percent better than the average shortstop. Like many switch-hitters, he’s been better from one side of the plate (116 wRC+ as a lefty, 94 as a righty), but he hasn’t been completely overmatched regardless of which batter’s box he stands.
Villar earned $4.825MM in 2019, and he’ll take home a solid raise on that sum thanks to his workload (159 games, 700 plate appearances at the moment) and his career-best counting stats. But even if Villar matches the 89 percent raise he received in arbitration last year, his salary will still clock in at about $9.125MM. Compare him, at that rate, to the rest of the rest of the free-agent class, and Villar looks like a sound one-year pickup before qualifying as a free agent himself next winter. That’s nearly the same price at which Brian Dozier ($9MM) signed with the Nationals this past winter after an off year and only slightly more than Jonathan Schoop ($7.5MM) received from the Twins. Villar’s four wins above replacement (4.0 bWAR, 3.9 fWAR) outweigh that pair of veterans combined.
This could be a peak year for Villar, but he’s now been worth at least two wins in three of the past four seasons, making his 2017 flop with the Brewers look more and more like an outlier. The free-agent market at shortstop has a pretty intriguing rebound candidate in Didi Gregorius and a defensive stalwart in Jose Iglesias. Dozier, Schoop and perhaps Mike Moustakas will headline the options on the other side of the bag. It’s not an elite class.
Villar may not be elite himself, but he’s a solid regular player who’ll come with an affordable price tag. The Orioles aren’t going to receive a king’s ransom for him by any means, but he’s also someone who should command a decent prospect or two in return. In retrospect, some team probably should’ve paid that price back in July.
Examining A Potential Jorge Soler Extension
While it’s been a tough season for the Royals as a team, Jorge Soler has emerged as a bright spot in the heart of the lineup, hitting .262/.352/.555 with 45 home runs in a career-high 668 plate appearances. Long one of the game’s top hitting prospects, the now-27-year-old Soler (28 in February) has finally displayed the enormous raw power that garnered so much praise as a minor leaguer. Kansas City still controls Soler through 2021, but MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes in his latest Royals inbox column that he’s “convinced” the team will offer Soler an extension this winter.
Soler’s current contractual status is a bit unique, as he signed a nine-year, $30MM contract with the Cubs back in 2012 when he was just 20 years old. International free agency wasn’t nearly as restricted then as it is now — under current rules, he’d have been limited to a minor league deal and likely garnered a signing bonus worth less than a quarter of that guarantee — and the Cubs committed both a lengthy term and sizable guarantee despite knowing he’d need to log time in the minors.
Soler is “signed” for the 2020 season at just $4MM, but he can opt out of that guaranteed salary and into MLB’s arbitration process this winter, as is the case with many Cuban defectors who signed Major League deals under the previous international free agency infrastructure. Based on his 45-homer campaign, he’s a lock to do just that. Arbitration raises for international players who opt out of this type of arrangement haven’t always been as steep as one might expect, but Soler will clearly top a $4MM salary. And since he’d be arb-eligible again in 2021, his salary for that season would be dependent on the size of the raise he gets in arbitration this winter.
All of that would be rendered moot in the event of a new long-term arrangement, though. Soler and the Royals will surely be talking contract when arbitration figures are exchanged in January, and that seems like a reasonable point at which the two sides could avoid a particularly tricky arbitration case with a multi-year arrangement. If not then, Spring Training extensions are commonplace.
There’s good reason for both parties to be amenable to a deal. Soler has banked a substantial sum in his career already but has yet to lock in a multi-year deal that pays him anywhere near open-market prices. The Royals, meanwhile, are aiming for a return to contention in 2021, and losing their top slugger at the end of that season would be a step backward. Soler is currently on track to become a free agent in advance of his age-30 season, so the Royals would be acquiring some additional prime years in a theoretical long-term deal.
The price of Soler’s would-be free-agent seasons is up for debate. Nelson Cruz has played each of the past five seasons (2019 included) for an annual rate around $14.25MM. He was considerably older than Soler when he signed a four-year, $57MM deal with the Mariners and his most recent one year, $14.3MM deal with the Twins. Edwin Encarnacion secured a $20MM annual rate in his three-year deal with the Indians — a contract that began with his age-33 season. Both right-handed sluggers had considerably longer track records of productivity than does Soler when they signed their contracts, though, and both had the benefit of an open-market setting. Soler didn’t even log a full big league season with Kansas City in either 2017 or 2018, posting a combined .228/.322/.403 batting line through 367 plate appearances across those two years.
Any power hitter’s production in 2019 is also going to be met with some skepticism as a result of this year’s explosive ball. That’s not to say the Royals should expect Soler to turn into a pumpkin when the clock strikes midnight on the 2019 season, but they’d be justified in pondering to what extent his power might scale back if the 2020 ball is more in line with previous seasons.
The length of an extension, of course, will be the other key part of the debate. Recent extensions for players with between four and five years of service time include Randal Grichuk and Jean Segura, both of whom signed away three free-agent seasons in addition to their remaining two arbitration years. Segura’s deal included an option for another year. In the case of Soler, who has a limited track record and notable injury history, a contract that exceeds five seasons in length seems like a reach. A total of five guaranteed years seems attainable.
Perhaps the biggest wild card in forecasting a possible extension value for Soler lies in the how his arbitration seasons are valued. As we saw with Jose Abreu, Yasiel Puig and others, this type of contract is handled atypically in arbitration. Abreu hit .293/.353/.468 with 25 home runs the year before he opted into arbitration, and his salary only rose from $10MM to $10.825MM. A year later, he received a raise barely north of $2MM after posting an outstanding .304/.354/.552 slash with 33 homers. Puig, meanwhile, opted into arbitration last winter when he reached five-plus years of service time and, working from a smaller 2018 base salary of $6.5MM, jumped up to $9.7MM. He’d have earned $7.5MM had he stuck with his initial contract.
Depending on how Soler’s arbitration seasons are valued, Grichuk’s five-year, $52MM contract could be a particularly relevant comparison. They’re different types of players, of course, but their final two arb seasons could fall within the same ballpark. The roughly $13MM annual rate at which Grichuk’s free-agent seasons were valued in his extension could also be a point of reference Soler’s camp seeks to top; doing so would put him in Cruz territory for the average annual value of his free-agent seasons. I’d imagine Soler would do a bit better than Grichuk in terms of overall guarantee, but something in that general vicinity seems like a plausible landing point for the burgeoning slugger.
