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Luis Severino Likely Out Until May

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Yankees general manager Brian Cashman provided a more concrete timetable for right-hander Luis Severino to return from his current shoulder troubles Friday, revealing that the organization doesn’t expect Severino to pitch in a big league game until sometime in May (Twitter link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Severino is currently in the midst of a two-week shutdown stemming from inflammation in his right shoulder’s rotator cuff. He’s expected to begin playing catch next week.

There’s more optimistic news surrounding fellow starter CC Sabathia, as Cashman indicated that the veteran left-hander could pitch in big league games in the month of April (via Hoch). Beyond his recovery from offseason knee surgery and an angioplasty procedure, Sabathia is still facing a five-game suspension for throwing at now-former Rays catcher Jesus Sucre late in the 2018 season. Cashman suggested that the team may carry Sabathia on the Opening Day roster, which would allow the clock on said suspension to begin sooner.

Given today’s updates from the general manager, it seems that the Yankees will spend at least a month of the season patching together the rotation behind healthy starters James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ. The Yankees have depth in the form of Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga, Chance Adams and the out-of-options Luis Cessa, and the frequent off-days baked into the early-season schedule should aid the team as well. The Yankees (like all clubs) won’t technically need a fifth starter for the first couple of weeks because of those off days, which could at least help them patch the gap until Sabathia is ready to take the hill.

Still, the timetable on Severino is an unwelcome one — particularly if there are any setbacks or lingering complications from his current shoulder issue. While the Yankees do have the depth to navigate the early absences of Severino and Sabathia, they’ll also continue to be speculatively linked to remaining free agents such as Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Keuchel until that pair has come off the boar and signed with a new organization. Either hurler would be a boon to the projected Opening Day rotation, but signing either would also give the Yankees six legitimate MLB starters for what figures to be five rotation spots if the entire group were to become healthy at the same time. There are also luxury-tax implications to consider; the Yankees’ current contracts bring their luxury-tax ledger to $226MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, meaning they would pay a 32 percent tax on any theoretical free-agent signing.

NL Central Notes: Kratz, Wacha, Pirates

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The Brewers are facing a decision on veteran catcher Erik Kratz, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel details. With Yasmani Grandal and Manny Pina ahead of Kratz on the depth chart, Kratz’s days with the organization seem numbered. The 38-year-old is out of minor league options, and the Brewers only plan to carry two catchers on the roster to open the season. A move to either trade Kratz or attempt to pass him through outright waivers seems inevitable, and president of baseball ops David Stearns was candid about Kratz’s roster status. “We’ve tried to keep him posted on what’s going on,” said Stearns. “…It’s a balance between trying to preserve your injury insurance and trying to assess the market and what’s out there. We’ll continue to balance that, but I imagine that resolution will happen close to the end of camp.” Stearns added that he Brewers are “sensitive to do right by the player” in searching for other opportunities, while Kratz himself had nothing but praise for the professionalism with which the organization has handled the situation.

More on the NL Central…

  • Michael Wacha is very cognizant of the fact that this could be his final Spring Training with the Cardinals, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. A free agent after the season, Wacha has already watched the Cardinals extend teammate Miles Mikolas (on a four-year, $68MM deal). Wacha called the contract “awesome” for Mikolas adding that his teammate is a “stud pitcher and great off the field.” As far as his own contract status, however, Wacha stressed the importance of not getting caught up in that sort of thing with the season approaching. The 2012 first-rounder was limited to 84 1/3 innings last season due to an oblique injury, but he was sharp when on the field, working to a 3.20 ERA with 7.6 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 0.96 HR/9 and a 43.2 percent grounder rate. He’ll be the youngest established starter available in free agency next winter, so a healthy season is particularly crucial.
  • Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette breaks down the Pirates’ shortstop battle between Erik Gonzalez and 2015 first-rounder Kevin Newman. Gonzalez, acquired from the Indians this offseason, is out of minor league options, so he’ll break camp with the club whether it’s as a starter at short or as a versatile utility piece. However, if Gonzalez beats out Newman for the starting role, it seems likelier that Newman would head to Triple-A for regular at-bats. Pablo Reyes and Cole Tucker are both in the mix as well, although Tucker has yet to even play a game in Triple-A and would seem like a long shot at this juncture. If neither Newman nor Tucker breaks camp with the team, Reyes could also be in line to earn a bench role as a utility piece. It’s a roster battle with numerous layers, which Brink discusses with GM Neal Huntington as well as several of the players involved.

Jose Berrios Declined Extension Offer From Twins

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The Twins have already extended a pair of young players this winter, inking both Max Kepler (five years, $35MM) and Jorge Polanco (five years, $25.75MM) to long-term deals, and they at least made an attempt to hammer out a long-term arrangement with Jose Berrios as well. The young righty tells Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that he and his representatives at Wasserman turned away an extension offer this winter.

Berrios, however, didn’t rule out signing a contract that would extend his stay in Minnesota — perhaps even before Opening Day 2019. “I have to manage my business, too,” said the 24-year-old. “…We’re waiting for the best for both sides. If it doesn’t happen this year, maybe next year.”

Miller lists the recent extensions signed by Aaron Nola (four years, $45MM) and Luis Severino (four years, $40MM) as data points, though it’s not clear that Berrios’ camp is seeking that type of guarantee. Furthermore, Severino was a Super Two player when he signed that deal, and Nola was had already reached three years of MLB service. Both players were already eligible for arbitration and were in line for salaries of at least $4.4MM for the coming season, whereas Berrios has two years, 44 days of MLB service and won’t be eligible for arbitration until next winter. As such, signing a comparable contract to either Nola or Severino would set a new precedent for the two-to-three service class.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explored when looking at a potential extension for the Rockies’ Kyle Freeland, Berrios finds himself among a group of quality players with two-plus years of service who still seem likely to fall shy of record-setting money. Corey Kluber’s $38.5MM extension, signed on the heels of a Cy Young season, is the largest ever for a non-Super-Two pitcher with between two and three years of MLB service. Berrios’ case, clearly, isn’t as strong; historically speaking, he’s more in line with a large group of starters who signed in the realm of $30MM over five years (though many of those contracts are close to a decade old). It’s worth emphasizing, of course, that Berrios’ asking price and the parameters put forth by the Twins earlier this winter aren’t known.

Berrios had an awful rookie campaign as a 22-year-old but has since settled in as very solid big league starter — one whose raw stuff and former prospect pedigree create optimism that there’s still a fair bit of improvement left in the tank. Dating back to 2017, the Puerto Rican-born righty has worked to a 3.86 ERA with 9.1 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.06 HR/9 and a 40 percent ground-ball rate in 338 innings. He’ll take the hill for Minnesota in his first career Opening Day start this season as the Twins hope the long touted right-hander can take another step forward and keep them in competition for a division title in the AL Central.

If Berrios is able to do that, he’ll vault himself into another tier of earning potential. At that point, he’d line up more comparably with Nola’s $45MM guarantee or the $51MM guarantee attained by the Cardinals’ Carlos Martinez, the latter of which stands out as the largest deal ever promised to a pitcher with between three and four years of MLB service (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker). For the time being, Miller’s colleague La Velle E. Neal III reports (via Twitter) that Berrios agreed to a one-year contract worth $620K for the upcoming season — his final pre-arbitration salary before at least entering the arb process next winter. Minnesota controls Berrios through the 2022 campaign.

MLB, MLBPA Announce Single Trade Deadline, Changes To Roster Size

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10:10am: The league and Union have formally announced the changes. A full rundown of the new rules is available, but here’s a more concise overview:

Effective Immediately

  • There will be no trades after July 31. August trade waivers have been eliminated, though players can still be placed on and claimed from outright waivers, as they would throughout the rest of the year.
  • All-Star voting will still be conducted by fans online, but the top three players at each position, in each league, will now participate in an All-Star Election Day. The top three vote-getters at each position, in each league, (top six in the case of outfielders) will receive bonus payments.
  • The Home Run Derby will now come with $2.5MM of prize money, including a $1MM prize for the winner.
  • The maximum number of mound visits per game will be reduced from six to five.
  • Commercial breaks between innings are reduced to two minutes in length for all games.
  • The MLB and MLBPA will form a “Joint Committee” to discuss further issues and rule changes.

Effective Beginning in 2020

  • The standard roster size in regular season games and postseason games will increase from 25 to 26 players. Beginning on Sept. 1, roster size will expand further to a 28-player maximum (as opposed to the current 40). A maximum number of pitchers will be designated by the Joint Committee. (Passan reported that the league has proposed no more than half a team’s players can be pitchers.)
  • Position players are only eligible to pitch in extra innings or when a team is leading or trailing by seven or more runs. Certain position players may be designated as “two-way players,” but to be eligible, they’ll need to have accrued at least 20 innings pitched and started 20 games as a position player/designated hitter in the current season or the preceding season (including at least three trips to the plate in each of those lineup appearances).
  • A pitcher must face at least three batters per appearance unless he is removed due to injury or the half-inning in which he is pitching ends before three batters have come to the plate.
  • The minimum length of stay for pitchers who are optioned to the minors or placed on the injured list will increase from 10 days to 15 days. This change is still “subject to input” from the newly formed Joint Committee.

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White Sox Shut Down Dane Dunning

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White Sox prospect Dane Dunning has been shut down after experiencing renewed discomfort while working through a throwing program, general manager Rick Hahn revealed to reporters (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Scott Merkin). As if that wasn’t ominous enough, Dunning is slated to meet with Dr. James Andrews this week, and Hahn was candid about the ominous nature of his injury. “Everything is on the table including a potential Tommy John surgery,” the GM said.

The 24-year-old Dunning was the third piece acquired in the trade that sent Adam Eaton to the Nationals, joining fellow righties Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito. He’s elevated his prospect status since the time of that deal, currently checking in at No. 80 on MLB.com’s ranking of the game’s Top 100 prospects. Baseball Prospectus ranked him 76th this winter, while he currently checks in just outside the Top 100 (No. 121) on Fangraphs’ rankings.

Last year, Dunning opened the season at Class-A Advanced and moved up to Double-A after four starts — excelling at both levels. His 2018 season was cut short by an elbow sprain, but when he was healthy enough to take the mound, he worked to a terrific 2.71 ERA with 10.4 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate north of 50 percent. In 86 1/3 innings of work, Dunning yielded just two home runs.

Should Dunning require Tommy John surgery, he’d be the second of the White Sox’ top-rated arms to sit out the 2019 campaign while rehabbing a UCL replacement. Righty Michael Kopech underwent the same operation late in the 2018 campaign and won’t be back on the mound for the organization until the 2020 season. Sox fans have been dreaming of a rotation headlined by Kopech, Dunning and fellow highly touted right-hander Dylan Cease, but that the timeline to that potential reality continues to be pushed back by injury troubles.

Mariners Option J.P. Crawford

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The Mariners announced tonight that they’ve optioned shortstop J.P. Crawford to Triple-A Tacoma. While the move isn’t entirely unexpected after Seattle signed Tim Beckham as a stopgap at shortstop this winter, it’s still of some note. Crawford will eventually receive the opportunity to prove that he can be the Mariners’ shortstop of the future, though the former first-round pick and highly touted prospect has yet to establish himself at the MLB level (hence the Phillies’ willingness to move him as part of the Jean Segura trade).

Crawford came to the Mariners with a year and 20 days of big league service time, meaning he’ll need to accrue 152 days of service in 2019 to reach the two-year plateau. As it stands, the Mariners control him through the end of the 2023 season, although if he remains in the minors for five weeks, the Mariners would control him through the end of the 2024 campaign.

The extent to which that’ll be a factor in determining his timeline to Seattle remains to be seen, but that seems like a distinct possibility given the signing of Beckham and Crawford’s generally tepid output in an injury-shortened 2018 season. Crawford was slowed last season first by a forearm strain and later by a fractured hand, limiting him to just 123 plate appearances in the minors and 138 PAs in the Majors. In his time with the Phillies last year, the now-24-year-old Crawford mustered only a .214/.319/.393 batting line.

Clearly, the lack of big league production to this point in his career hasn’t dissuaded the Mariners from buying into Crawford’s potential, but it was clear at the time the organization signed Beckham that Crawford would have to force his way up to the big league roster, and that’s yet to transpire. Beckham signed a modest one-year, $1.75MM salary and is coming off an ugly .230/.287/.374 showing in the big leagues last season himself, and he’s capable of moving around the infield if and when the organization feels Crawford merits a look. At that point, Beckham won’t stand in the way of Crawford’s arrival. For the time being, however, Beckham will team with Ryon Healy on the left side of the Seattle infield following the recent injury to Kyle Seager.

White Sox Option Eloy Jimenez To Triple-A

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In what has been a widely anticipated move, the White Sox announced Wednesday that they’ve optioned top outfield prospect Eloy Jimenez to Triple-A Charlotte. The move was one of nine spring cuts by the ChiSox, who also optioned out top pitching prospect Dylan Cease, catcher Seby Zavala and outfielder Micker Adolfo.

Jimenez, 22, is not only considered to be among the game’s premier prospects but is also largely believed to be ready for MLB action. The Dominican-born slugger obliterated Double-A and Triple-A pitching in 2018, posting ridiculous slash lines of .317/.368/.556 and .355/.399/.597 at those respective levels.

Jimenez’s demotion will stand out as one of the more blatant examples of service time manipulation this spring, as the decision to send him to Triple-A is surely motivated more by the desire to gain an extra season of club control over the player rather than to further his development. This year’s regular season is 186 days long, and a player would gain a full season of MLB service by spending 172 of those days at the MLB level (be it on the active roster or the injured list). In other words, by keeping Jimenez in the minors for just 15 days, the Sox will be able to control him for seven seasons as opposed to the six seasons for which they’d control him by bringing him to the Majors to open the year.

It’s a maddening and counter-intuitive side effect of a system that has prompted pundits, players, agents and fans to call for change. For a team in the White Sox’ situation — unlikely to contend this season but optimistic that their ongoing rebuild is nearing the finish line — it makes perfect sense from a business standpoint to trade two weeks of Jimenez in a noncompetitive season for a full extra year of control over a potential premium player. For Jimenez, however, the current structure of service time and free agency delays his path to his most significant potential payday, while the fans are asked to accept that their team won’t bring the 25 best players in camp north to open the season. It’s a system in which there’s arguably no true winner, as the even White Sox’ front office will surely face a negative wave of backlash from fans and onlookers.

For the time being, Jimenez will be asked to continue honing his skills in the minors. Perhaps the Sox will opt not to call him up on the very first day on which he’d fall a year shy of big league service, using the delay as a means of further claiming that the move was a developmental decision rather than one driven by service time. It’s likely that they’ll point to Jimenez’s .154/.154/.346 slash in Spring Training as justification of the move, though few would find it plausible that 26 spring plate appearances are more indicative of MLB readiness than the 456 PAs during which Jimenez laid waste to minor league pitching in 2018. Furthermore, the move would surely have happened regardless of his performance; the White Sox, after all, declined to give Jimenez a September call-up in 2018 despite his aforementioned mastery of minor league pitching and despite the fact that he was already on the 40-man roster.

Regardless of the specific timing, it seems quite likely that Jimenez will  be in the Majors very early in the 2019 campaign. Cease and the others who were sent out aren’t as far along in their development and will be on a more uncertain timeline to the big leagues.

To be fair to the White Sox, they’re far from the only club to take this route. The Braves held back Ronald Acuna’s promotion to the Majors last season under similarly dubious circumstances, while others who’ve been subject to this form of service time manipulation include Kris Bryant and Maikel Franco (among many others). It was a foregone conclusion that the Blue Jays would send Vladimir Guerrero Jr. down to the minors in the exact same fashion, though Guerrero’s recent oblique injury actually gave the Toronto organization a legitimate reason to do so.

NL East Notes: deGrom, Lowrie, Taylor, Jones

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Though there are just over two weeks between now and Opening Day, Mets ace Jacob deGrom said Tuesday that he’s still “optimistic” about coming to terms on a long-term deal with the organization (link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). Whatever talks have transpired, both the Mets and deGrom’s camp have done a good job of keeping things under wraps, as there’s been little reported on the matter since camp opened despite deGrom’s standing as one of the game’s elite talents. The right-hander stated again today that he “definitely” wants to be a part of the Mets’ future. It’s been one month since deGrom was reported to have placed an Opening Day deadline on extension talks with the Mets. He’s slated to earn $17MM in 2019 — his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility — and is currently on track to become a free agent after the 2020 season.

More from the NL East …

  • On the health side, the Mets have seen encouraging progress from a few players. Jed Lowrie has resumed baseball activities and could be on track to return from his knee sprain early in the season. There’s even an “outside shot” that he’s on the active roster on Opening Day, DiComo says. And backstop Travis d’Arnaud  is expected to head north with the big league club after missing almost all of 2018, DiComo adds. d’Arnaud, who avoided arbitration at a $3.515MM salary, has continued to check boxes this spring as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
  • Nationals outfielder Michael Taylor is turning heads inside and outside the organization, Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic writes (subscription link). While Victor Robles will be given a shot to make good on his promise, the Nats are also considering scenarios where he slides to right field to enable Taylor to roam in center. Utilizing such an alignment when there’s a lefty on the hill would also facilitate rest for Adam Eaton, who has been limited by leg ailments ever since arriving in Washington. Soon to turn 28, Taylor has had chances to seize regular time in the past but hasn’t managed to reach base consistently enough to fully realize his potential. He spent the winter working on swing mechanics and preparing to “stay[] strong on the mental side” with a more “positive” mindset. Taylor will enter the season fourth on the depth chart, but could still have ample opportunity with the Nats in the season to come and beyond.
  • The Marlins pursued veteran outfielder Adam Jones before he signed with the Diamondbacks, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Those were the only two teams with interest in Jones, who suggested he was not inclined to consider minor-league offers. The Marlins ended up securing the services of some other veteran players on favorable terms, including a minors pact with outfielder Curtis Granderson; the club’s level of financial interest in Jones is not known. Jones says he “want[s] to play a few more years for sure, at least.”

Morton “Fully Expecting” To Retire After Current Contract

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New Rays right-hander Charlie Morton has been open in the past about his uncertainty surrounding how long he aims to continue playing, and he told MLB Network’s Jon Morosi that he is “fully expecting” to retire once his current contract with the Rays expires (Twitter link).

The 35-year-old signed a two-year, $30MM contract with Tampa Bay this offseason, allowing him to pitch closer to his Florida home. Morton’s contract also contains a vesting option for the 2021 season, which leaves open the possibility that he’ll pitch through his age-37 season, though that’s far from a certainty at this point.

Signed by the Astros to a two-year contract prior to the 2017 season, Morton broke out as an unexpected star in Houston, not only giving the ’Stros 313 2/3 innings of 3.36 ERA ball but also providing some memorable postseason moments. The righty fired five shoutout innings against the Yankees in the decisive Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS, pitched six innings of one-run ball against the Dodgers in Game 4 of the 2017 World Series and closed out that same World Series in Game 7 with four innings of relief.

He’ll now join an upstart Rays club that carries similar postseason aspirations after surprising many onlookers with a 90-win season in 2018. Tampa Bay reportedly plans to only utilize three traditional starters — 2018 Cy Young winner Blake Snell, Morton and young Tyler Glasnow — with the other two would-be rotation spots being occupied by “openers.” Ryne Stanek, Emilio Pagan, Colin Poche, Wilmer Font and Hunter Wood are all reportedly in the mix for that role (Stanek was the team’s most frequent option in 2018), while lefties Ryan Yarbrough and Jalen Beeks and right-hander Yonny Chirinos are currently the lead followup options.

NL Central Notes: Lyles, Strop, Reds

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Right-hander Jordan Lyles is still the leading candidate for the Pirates’ final rotation spot, general manager Neal Huntington said today (Twitter link via Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Huntington candidly indicated that the 28-year-old entered camp as the favorite to win the job, adding that neither he nor his primary competition — Nick Kingham and Steven Brault — has done anything to change that. Those comments did come before Lyles exited today’s appearance with some cramping in his right side (link via the Post-Gazette’s Nubyjas Wilborn), though the move was described as “precautionary.” Lyles hasn’t exactly dominated this spring, pitching to a 4.91 ERA on 13 hits and five walks with seven strikeouts through 11 innings, although the Pirates are surely more concerned with the quality of his offerings than his bottom-line results in a small sample of exhibition innings. Lyles signed a one-year deal worth $2.05MM to join the Pirates this offseason after posting a 4.11 ERA with career-best K/BB numbers in 87 2/3 innings between the Padres and the Brewers.

Here’s more from the NL Central…

  • Cubs righty Pedro Strop sustained a “mild” right hamstring strain in his most recent Cactus League outing on Saturday and is now questionable for the beginning of the season, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. (That, it should be noted, is not the same hamstring that sidelined Strop near the end of the 2018 season.) Strop will continue to play catch while resting and rehabbing the leg issue, and there’s still a chance that he could be ready to open the season on the active roster rather than the injured list. Currently, he’s in line to close games in Chicago while Brandon Morrow is out early in the year, though if Strop does hit the IL, veteran Steve Cishek would seem likely to be the next man up.
  • The Reds’ offseason additions of Sonny Gray, Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp were a welcome departure from what has become standard operating procedure for many noncompetitive teams in recent seasons, opines Joel Sherman of the New York Post. While many teams have followed the Astros’ model of aggressively tanking to stockpile draft picks and international bonus resources, the Reds at least positioned themselves to have a chance in the division, even if few would peg them as any sort of favorite. “For the first time in a long time we added multiple well-known major league players to this team in an offseason,” president of baseball operations Dick Williams tells Sherman. “That clearly has people’s imaginations going. That is part of the fun. … Just to be able to ponder the possible and the excitement is a huge psychological benefit to our fans.” Even if the moves ultimately fail to yield dividends, several of the newly acquired assets (namely Wood, Roark and Puig) could hold value on the summer trade market, and the Reds didn’t sacrifice any of the organization’s very top prospects in order to take a shot at improved results in 2019.

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