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Non-Tender Candidate: Mark Reynolds

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The Orioles declined an $11.5MM club option on corner infielder Mark Reynolds at the end of October, and as we approach next week's non-tender deadline they have to make another decision on him.  With less than six years of big league service time, Reynolds remains under the team's control as an arbitration eligible player.  Matt Swartz's arbitration projections have Reynolds at $8.9MM for 2013 if tendered a contract, but that dollar range still might be too high for the O's.

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Speaking to Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com after his option was declined, Reynolds expressed a desire to return to the Orioles in 2013.  Still, he intends to survey the marketplace if the Orioles decide to cut him loose a week from Friday.  Reynolds carries a poor reputation and UZR as a third baseman, but he seems to have settled in as a full-time first baseman this year.  It's probably fair to say he's become close to an average defensive first baseman.

That brings us to Reynolds' bat.  Clearly, the 29-year-old is a source of right-handed power.  He owns a .475 career slugging percentage and is generally good for 30 home runs over 600 plate appearances.  Reynolds also fans in about a third of his plate appearances, making him one of the game's foremost strikeout artists.  Overall, his bat is a positive, but the low .200s batting average and league-leading whiff total is hard to stomach.

A one-year, $9MM deal would be a reasonable commitment for Reynolds, in light of Carlos Pena receiving more than that two years ago from the Cubs.  Despite the recent acclaim, however, Reynolds does not carry the defensive reputation Pena did.  I expect the Orioles to go in a different direction at first base, allowing Reynolds to explore free agency.  He may receive some two-year offers, and as we saw with Melky Cabrera, sometimes a player decides a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.  If Reynolds prefers a bigger risk and potential long-term reward, he can stick to a one-year deal with no option and hope to hit .250 with 35 home runs while continuing to improve his defensive reputation.  That type of season would allow him to cash in a year from now.  Teams such as the Mariners and Indians, who have been linked to Kevin Youkilis, could consider Reynolds as a backup plan at first base this offseason.

Photo courtesy of U.S. Presswire.

MLBTR Seeking Windows 8 App Developer

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It's time for an MLB Trade Rumors Windows 8 app!  Given that the operating system has only been out for a short period of time, experience in Windows 8 app development is hard to come by.  Nonetheless, we plan to forge ahead and find a strong candidate to create this application.  Regular MLBTR readership is a bonus.  If you're interested, please email mlbtrwindows8@gmail.com with your qualifications.

You can purchase our iPhone/iPad app here and our Android app here.

Free Agent Faceoff: Angel Pagan vs. Shane Victorino

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The free agent market for center fielders is strong this year, with regulars Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Josh Hamilton, Angel Pagan, and Shane Victorino currently unsigned.  MLBTR readers narrowly prefer Bourn to Upton, but both figure to receive five-year contracts in excess of $65MM.  Hamilton is in a class by himself, leaving Pagan and Victorino as more reasonably-priced options.

Pagan, 31, went from a non-tender candidate a year ago to whipping up Doritos Locos at Taco Bell for adoring fans last month (the latter is generally seen as a good thing).  Rival agents may attempt to take Pagan down a peg for a relatively short resume, but only one of his last four seasons was subpar (2011).  Pagan is above-average in all aspects of the game, from offense to defense to baserunning.  Prior to the World Series exposure he was good in kind of a sneaky way, but the sum total is a player potentially worth five wins above replacement.  There's a vibe that his superb timing may result in a contract worth $10-12MM annually over three or four years.  It's plausible that someone stretches and adds a fifth year.

Victorino, 32 later this month, is another late-blooming switch-hitter.  His success as a big league regular dates back to 2006, however.  Compared to Pagan, Victorino had the opposite walk-year effect.  His stock took a hit due to struggles against right-handed pitching and an unimpressive final two months after a trade to the Dodgers.  The term of his next contract seems likely to be shorter than Pagan's despite their similarity in age.  Pagan bounced back after an ugly 2011; there's no reason Victorino can't do the same next year.  And keep in mind that even with the down offensive year, Victorino's ability to play a credible center field still made him worth three wins above replacement in 2012.

Pagan and Victorino are overachievers, in that both were discarded by multiple teams and took a while to establish themselves as regulars.  Now both are on the free agent market, and their career trajectories might not be as different as you think.

Which outfielder would you prefer to sign?
Angel Pagan 55.68% (9,974 votes)
Shane Victorino 44.32% (7,940 votes)
Total Votes: 17,914

Non-Tender Tracker

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Players on 40-man rosters with at least two years and 139 days of Major League service and less than six full years are considered arbitration eligible, assuming they are not already signed to a contract covering 2013.  Arbitration eligible players almost always receive raises, and sometimes a player's expected salary exceeds his expected value.  Such players are non-tendered, meaning they are not offered contracts by their teams and become free agents.  The deadline for these decisions comes earlier than usual this year, on November 30th.

A handful of Major League contract-worthy players typically hit the free agent market by way of a non-tender every year.  David Ortiz and Jayson Werth were non-tendered in their careers, and in more recent years players such as Edwin Encarnacion, Bobby Jenks, Russell Martin, Joel Peralta, Chien-Ming Wang, Jeff Keppinger, Joe Saunders, Jonny Gomes, Matt Capps, John Buck, and Chris Capuano were cut loose in this way.

This year, of the 191 players currently eligible for arbitration, approximately 50 are non-tender candidates.  Click here to check out my subjective non-tender candidate list from a month ago (many of the listed players have since been cut loose).  Decent names who may become free agents next week include Mark Reynolds, Geovany Soto, Ian Stewart, Daric Barton, Ryan Sweeney, Jair Jurrjens, John Lannan, Mike Pelfrey, and Brian Wilson.

As usual, we'll be all over the November 30th non-tender deadline.  Our non-tender tracker, which allows filtering by tender status and team, is the best tool for following along.  The newly-minted free agents will be added to our 2013 MLB free agent tracker and list as well. 

Twins Sign Tim Wood

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The Twins signed reliever Tim Wood to a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite, MLBTR has learned.  Wood, who turns 30 later this month, spent 2012 with the Pirates' Triple-A affiliate.  The hard-throwing righty posted 21 saves with a 2.19 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 0.39 HR/9 in 70 innings, earning a recognition as the International League's best reliever by Baseball America.  He's represented by Jonathan Maurer.

Arbitration Eligibles: Miami Marlins

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The Marlins are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series, with one of the smallest arbitration classes.  The Marlins are one of baseball's "file and trial" teams, in that they're known to automatically go to an arbitration hearing if figures are exchanged.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Webb came to the Marlins two years ago along with Edward Mujica, in the deal that sent Cameron Maybin to San Diego.  Webb, who turns 27 in February, excels mainly at keeping the ball in the yard.  He's generally hittable and doesn't post great strikeout rates, and spent some time in Triple-A in July.  But at less than a million bucks, I think the Marlins will keep Webb around for 2013, especially having subtracted Heath Bell from their bullpen.

Bonifacio, 28 in April, missed a huge portion of the season due to a torn ligament in his thumb and a knee sprain.  He still managed to steal 30 bases in only 64 games.  Perhaps the Marlins will consider making him the permanent center fielder (he also plays infield) in 2013.  Bonifacio won an arbitration hearing against the Marlins in February, after the team took their standard hardline stance despite a difference of only $250K.

Assuming both players are tendered contracts, the Marlins are looking at an estimated $3.4MM for their arbitration eligibles. 

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.  To see projected arbitration salaries for all players, click here.

Arbitration Eligibles: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Lannan projects as the team's most expensive arbitration eligible player even without a raise.  It was a rough year for the 28-year-old, who lost his arbitration case in February, lost the team's fifth starter competition to Detwiler in April, requested a trade, and then remained in the organization to post pedestrian Triple-A numbers for most of his season.  A non-tender should cap off his year, which will at least lead to free agency and a fresh start.

Zimmermann is a mainstay atop the Nats' rotation, as the 26-year-old posted his best season with 195 2/3 innings of 2.94 ball in the regular season.  Comparables remain light among those with three to four years of big league service, especially since Zimmermann was a Super Two.  Perhaps a new extension comp will emerge among Max Scherzer, Matt Harrison, and Homer Bailey.  If not, I could picture $45MM over five years (two of them free agent seasons) for Zimmermann.  Detwiler, the team's first overall pick in the 2007 draft, did solid work at the back end of the Nationals' rotation prior to his first arbitration year.

The Nationals have four arbitration eligible relievers in Clippard, Storen, Gorzelanny, and Stammen.  When an elbow injury sidelined Storen in Spring Training, Clippard was initially denied a shot at closing in favor of Henry Rodriguez and Brad Lidge.  A larger committee took hold by late May, after which Clippard took hold of the job.  Storen was activated on July 19th, but Clippard still picked up 17 saves after that point and finished with 32.  The situation helped Clippard financially, as nothing earns bigger bucks for a reliever than saves.  As reliever salaries continue to rise, Clippard is still a good value at under $5MM.  Meanwhile, the abbreviated campaign and small saves total cost Storen some bucks in advance of his first arbitration year.  Gorzelanny and Stammen both had solid years and should also be retained.

Flores seemed like a trade candidate a year ago, but he received decent playing time in 2012 after starting catcher Wilson Ramos went down.  Flores didn't do much with his audition, and now Kurt Suzuki is projected to split time with Ramos in 2013.  A trade or non-tender is in Flores' future; like Lannan, he'll welcome the change of scenery.  Bernadina had a very strong season as a much-needed utility outfielder, and he'll be retained.

The Nationals' patience with Desmond paid off, as the shortstop had a breakthrough age 26 season.  Desmond played well in a sabermetric sense, but also had the surface numbers that pay well in arbitration (batting average, home runs, RBI, steals).  Since 2013 is his first arbitration year, he'll remain affordable at around $3.2MM.  The Nationals had preliminary extension talks with Desmond during the season, which will likely be rekindled soon.  Alexei Ramirez's $32.5MM extension with the White Sox could be a point of reference.

Assuming everyone except Lannan and Flores are retained, the Nationals are looking at an estimated $21.4MM for eight arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.  To see projected arbitration salaries for all players, click here.

MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest

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Dust off your crystal ball again, it's time for MLBTR's second annual free agent prediction contest! Predict destinations for our top 50 free agents, with the chance to win fantastic prizes and bragging rights over your friends and the MLBTR writing team.  Last year's winner had 15 correct; can you beat that?

How To Play

  • Click here to make picks for our top 50 free agents.  For each player you can choose any of the 30 teams, as well as Retirement or Japan.
  • A Facebook account is required to participate in this contest.  You can log in with the button up top, or by using the Save Your Picks button at the bottom.
  • Feel free to leave your picks incomplete for now, as long as you save them using the button at the bottom.  The contest is open now and runs until midnight central time on Wednesday, November 7th.  Make sure to have something chosen and saved for all 50 players by the deadline, or else you will not be eligible for the contest.
  • Players on our top 50 that sign before the November 7th deadline are considered freebies, although you still need to go in and make the correct pick.  It's kind of like getting points for putting your name on the test – seems like a no-brainer, but a few people still won't do it.
  • The leaderboard will rank contestants by "batting average" on correct picks, once players start signing.  The leaderboard will show everyone's full names and Facebook profile picture.

Rules

  • Final picks must be saved by November 7th at midnight central time – no exceptions.
  • MLBTR writers are not eligible for prizes.
  • One entry per person, please.
  • With regard to prizes, ties in batting average will be decided by totaling the ranking number of each correctly-guessed free agent and taking the lowest total, rewarding contestants for being right on better free agents.  If people are still tied after that method is applied, prizes will be distributed at MLBTR's discretion by choosing among tied contestants randomly.
  • Prize winners must respond to an email message within 48 hours.

Prizes

Arbitration Eligibles: San Francisco Giants

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The Giants are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Wilson represents a high-profile non-tender candidate for the World Champions.  The closer, 31 in March, had Tommy John surgery in April.  Though he missed most of the 2012 season, a salary decrease is unlikely, hence the $8.5MM figure.  It'd be a large commitment for a reliever coming off major elbow surgery, even if Wilson manages to beat the typical one-year recovery and be ready for Opening Day.  The Giants would still have Romo, Casilla, and Javier Lopez in next year's bullpen, though if they cut Wilson and lose Jeremy Affeldt via free agency they might feel compelled to make an addition. 

Casilla, and especially Romo, make for a formidable pair at the back end of the bullpen.  The Giants also have arbitration eligible relievers in Mijares and Hensley.  Mijares was solid following the Giants' August waiver claim, while Hensley is a non-tender candidate.

The Giants have a few utility types up for arbitration in Blanco, Arias, and Burriss.  Blanco and Arias seem safe, while Burriss was on and off the team's 40-man roster in 2012 and will be let go.

In Pence, the Giants have the most expensive arbitration eligible player in all of baseball.  A former Super Two, the right fielder took a larger-than-usual salary leap by winning his 2011 arbitration case.  For some reason, the Astros and Phillies never hammered out an extension with Pence and he's continued going year-to-year.  He was a trade deadline acquisition for the Giants, and unlike his Phillies' post-deadline stint in '11, Pence struggled.  The Giants don't seem to be considering non-tendering him; instead they'll hope for a return to career levels in 2013. 

Posey was the NL's Comeback Player of the Year after missing most of 2011 due to a major ankle injury.  He's also an MVP candidate, an award that would further boost his arbitration salary.  We don't project Posey to sniff Ryan Howard's first-time arbitration record of $10MM, but the Super Two backstop will set a first-time record for catchers and would get expensive in a hurry going year-to-year.  Carlos Gonzalez signed the biggest extension for a player with less than three years service, a seven-year, $80MM deal.  Since he's a Super Two player, Posey would deserve about that much on a six-year contract.  However, Posey's agents at CAA Sports could have a $100MM+ deal in their sights, assuming an extension is on the table for both parties.

Assuming the Giants tender contracts to only Posey, Casilla, Romo, Mijares, Blanco, and Arias, they're looking at an estimated $18.6MM for six arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Arbitration Eligibles: Oakland Athletics

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The Athletics are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

The A's have a pair of arbitration eligible relievers in Blevins and Neshek.  The A's have deemed Blevins expendable in the past, but he continues to shut down southpaws and will be retained this winter.  Neshek, who has the opposite split, has bounced around in recent years.  He dominated for the Orioles' Triple-A affiliate this year before his trade to Oakland, after which he posted a couple of solid months with the big club.  Those two months may allow him to keep his 40-man roster spot, but it's not a lock.

Kottaras was designated for assignment by the Brewers in July before the A's acquired him.  The 29-year-old has good pop and should stick around as Derek Norris' backup.  Barton, the former first-round pick who led the American League in walks in 2010, was tendered a contract by the A's a year ago and began 2012 on the DL recovering from shoulder surgery.  Upon his activation Barton regained his starting job at first base, but by June he was optioned to Triple-A.  Barton wouldn't really receive a raise, but the A's have better options at first in Moss and Chris Carter.  It might make sense for a team like Boston to acquire him on the cheap.  Rosales, 29, was an up-and-down guy this year, and the A's could cut him for the roster spot.

Moss, 29, was a cheap offseason pickup by the A's who went on to hit 21 home runs in just 296 plate appearances.  He's got a big role on next year's club.  Smith wasn't spectacular, but he did his job against right-handed pitching (.259/.352/.454) and will also be tendered a contract.  He could be trade bait given the team's crowded outfield picture, though he spent a chunk of time at designated hitter this year.    

Assuming Smith, Moss, Kottaras, Blevins, and Neshek are tendered contracts, the A's are looking at an estimated $7.7MM for five arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

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