AL East Notes: Darwinzon, Cone, Armstrong
Although he enjoyed a strong finish to the 2019 season in the bullpen, Red Sox lefty Darwinzon Hernandez tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that he still prefers to work as a starter in the long run. The 23-year-old emphasized that being on the team, whether as a starter or reliever, is still his top priority and voiced a willingness to pitch in any role the club fits. Notably, though, Abraham suggests that while former skipper Alex Cora believed Hernandez is best-suited for a short relief role, new manager Ron Roenicke agrees with Hernandez that he should be in the mix for a starting job. “You have to consider it,” Roenicke told Abraham. “He’s still a young pitcher, and there’s a lot to work with.”
Hernandez punched out nearly 39 percent of the hitters he faced in the Majors last year (57 in 30 1/3 innings) but also issued 16 walks in that time. Control has been a longstanding issue for the big lefty, evidenced by a career 5.5 BB/9 mark in the minors. Still, the Red Sox’ rotation is anything but settled at the moment, with Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, reclamation project Martin Perez and journeyman Ryan Weber occupying the top four spots. Certainly, there’s room to take a look to see if Hernandez can finally rein in his control and work as an effective big league starter.
More from the AL East to kick off the week…
- It’s already known that the Yankees interviewed former Cy Young winner and current YES Network Analyst David Cone for their pitching coach vacancy before hiring Matt Blake last November, but Cone talked more about the interview process and another potential role that was discussed in an interview with the New Jersey Star-Ledger’s Bob Klapisch. The pitching coach talks were “more exploratory” in nature, per Cone, but the two sides discussed a role in which he’d serve as a liaison between the club’s pitchers and the analytics department — utilizing his experience as a pitcher to help bridge the gap between data from the front office and implementation in a game setting. That role didn’t come together, clearly, but it’s nevertheless interesting both in a “what might’ve been” lens in addition to looking down the line at what could yet be in store if the two sides rekindle talks.
- Orioles righty Shawn Armstrong was considered a “sure thing” to make the bullpen heading into camp, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, and he did nothing to change that thinking with six shutout frames and 11 punchouts. Expanded rosters early in a potentially delayed season would only make it easier for the club to hang onto the right-hander. The 29-year-old Armstrong went from Cleveland to Seattle to Baltimore over the past couple of seasons but only this past year got a full look in the Majors. He struggled to an ERA just north of 5.00 in Baltimore but also averaged 9.9 K/9 with an overall 24.2 percent strikeout rate and elite spin on his four-seamer. His 2018 work with Seattle — 14 2/3 innings, 1.23 ERA, 15-to-3 K/BB ratio — lends some reason for optimism as well. Armstrong is out of minor league options, so the Orioles would have to run him through waivers if they wanted to send him down to Triple-A Norfolk.
Breakout Candidate: Anthony Santander
The past two years have not been kind to the Baltimore Orioles. All-world prospect Adley Rutschman has joined the fray and is perhaps a harbinger of the franchise’s turning fortunes, but the fact is that two consecutive 100-loss seasons have highlighted a glaring dearth of projectable talent on the Major League roster. But that’s not to say that the big league club is entirely without players worth following. Just about a year-and-a-half into Mike Elias’s tenure as general manager, the rebuild in Baltimore still isn’t particularly far along, but I want to discuss an intriguing player brought in by the previous regime who might have done enough to catch Elias’s attention.
Enter 25-year-old outfielder Anthony Santander. Signed by the Indians as an international amateur in 2011, Santander joined the O’s organization as a Rule 5 draft selection prior to the 2016 season. He’s gotten brief looks in the big leagues since then, but he got his first extended chance with the Orioles in 2019 and turned some heads. And with only 544 MLB plate appearances—just about a full season’s worth—under his belt, there’s development still to be done here.
I don’t fancy myself a scout, but let me propose the following comparison: Santander possesses a skillset and physique that is perhaps reminiscent of the Brewers’ Avisail Garcia. Both are big outfielders with a body that points itself to good power output, but they sneak up on you with deceptive athleticism and speed for their size. I see Santander as having the tools to produce numbers similar to those Garcia put up with the Rays last year. And Garcia might not be a star, but don’t get it twisted: he’s a valuable Major League player who fulfilled a role on a playoff club and parlayed that into $20MM last winter.
At 6-2, 190 pounds, Santander’s measurables are definitely a step below the 6-4, 250 lb. Garcia, but Santander has a thick frame and a strong upper body, and definitely looks bigger than his listed weight. And that’s not a bad thing, especially if he can maintain good mobility to go with an imposing presence at the plate: his Statcast sprint speed ranked in the 64th percentile.
Believe it or not, he reached the 20 home run threshold last year, but he still feels like something of an unknown commodity given 2019’s trivialization of that benchmark. He only notched 380 ABs last year, which places him squarely at 19.0 AB/HR, right in line with the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Jose Abreu, and Rhys Hoskins. Obviously, AB/HR is not the go-to for evaluating a batter’s power, but it gives you an idea of what kind of output is possible with a full year of at-bats. Did I mention he’s a switch-hitter?
His batted ball profile (courtesy of Baseball Savant) corroborates that endorsement of his power: his average exit velocity of 89.6 mph ranked in the 61st percentile of Major League hitters, while his average launch angle (14.8˚) is right in the ideal range for power production. For what it’s worth, his maximum 112.9 mph puts him among the top 25% of hitters with at least 100 batted balls in 2019, so his ceiling might be even higher.
Even so, Santander’s power doesn’t compromise his ability to make contact. He struck out in just 21.2% of his plate appearances, which is right about league average—certainly acceptable for someone with his power capability. Now, part of that relatively low strikeout rate might be due to an aggressive approach: his 51.8% swing rate was the 37th-highest among 207 hitters with at least 400 PAs. That said, his swinging strike rate is surprisingly low, at just 9.7%. That’s pretty impressive for someone who can hit the ball as hard as he does. With that in mind, it’s possible that he could afford to be more choosy at the plate; his strikeout rate might climb ever so slightly, but he makes contact consistently enough that he might not suffer by being in deeper counts.
On a similar note, the biggest hole in Santander’s offensive game is his low walk rate. At just 4.7% in 2019, he only managed a .297 OBP. In an ideal world, we’d see that number climb up to about 8%, or roughly league average. That might be a best-case scenario, given that Santander’s already 25 and routinely posted minuscule walk rates during his minor league career. There’s no doubt that Santander’s maturation as a player hinges partly on this skill, and it could be the difference between him becoming, say, Randal Grichuk, or something more.
To this point in Santander’s career, he’s graded out as a roughly average defender, but there may be potential for more here. Last year, he spent 156 innings (or about 1/5 of his total time in the field) in center field, where he notched -4 Defensive Runs Saved. But that number climbed to a very respectable 5 DRS when he was stationed in right field. We know that defensive metrics are notoriously unreliable in small sample sizes, but still: those numbers suggest that if he shifts to a corner full-time, Santander could establish himself as a firmly above average outfielder, which would go a long way towards rounding out his game.
A profile that includes solid defense, above-average speed, and legitimate power from both sides of the plate is hard to come by. The possibility that Santander could grow into a player that provides exactly that makes him, by my estimation, one of the more intriguing players in the Orioles organization, and a possible installment in the lineup for the foreseeable future.
How To Get A Job In Baseball, According To GMs
Working in baseball operations for a Major League team is a dream job for many baseball fanatics. If front office job-seekers are being honest, the pinnacle would be to one day land in the GM’s chair and call the shots on trades, free agent signings, and draft picks. But in such a competitive field, how do you stand out? What should you focus on to become as appealing as possible to an MLB team in a job interview?
Seven years ago, I polled many MLB executives on their advice for high school students with front office aspirations. With so many new executives in the game since then, I decided to move a bit further down the career path and ask this question:
What one piece of advice would you give to a college student who hopes to work in baseball operations one day?
I posed this question to many of MLB’s top-ranking baseball operations executives. Just like the rest of us, these people are currently sheltered in place with their families trying to get some work done in these difficult and strange times. The following ten execs kindly took the time to answer my question: Ross Atkins of the Blue Jays, Jeff Bridich of the Rockies, Ben Cherington of the Pirates, James Click of the Astros, Mike Elias of the Orioles, Derek Falvey of the Twins, Matt Kleine of the Brewers, Dayton Moore of the Royals, Brodie Van Wagenen of the Mets, and Dick Williams of the Reds. Their answers are below.
I always think of the creative examples of how several of the current team’s GMs and Presidents got their foot in the door when asked this question. Without sharing those ideas specifically, I tell the individual who asked to think of something that they can bring to the table today that would be beneficial for a baseball operations team. Is there something that they do or can do that would have an immediate impact even if very small. It could be data analysis, programming, scouting, performance coaching, or leadership/communication application but ideally in the form of a project or deliverable and in a perfect world something that the organization doesn’t already have.
I believe that if those looking to get into baseball have excelled in other arenas they should think about how they have done that and share that in a way that is applicable to baseball as that is usually an attractive approach to those who are deciding to add to their operations teams. – Ross Atkins, Blue Jays Executive Vice President, Baseball Operations & General Manager
In terms of trying to trying to get into the world of baseball operations out of college, mindset and attitude will determine a lot. Create for yourself a mindset built around relentlessness, flexibility and hard work. The typical college school year and/or graduation timeframe do not lineup perfectly with when most Major League teams are hiring. So there could be some lag time between leaving college and getting hired.
Also, there usually are hundreds, maybe thousands, more applicants for jobs than there are jobs available. So chances are you’ll hear a bunch of “Nos” before you hear a “Yes”. That’s where relentlessness, flexibility and work ethic come into play. Your first opportunity in the baseball industry may not come in the perfect shape, size and package that you desire – but that’s OK. Be flexible in what you are willing to do and where you’re willing to work (be that departmentally or geographically).
At some point in your job search, you may feel like you are being annoying or that you’re bothering team employees too often. But know that relentlessness and persistence often pay off. It’s tough to count up how many times we have said over the years, “You have to give that person credit for his/her persistence,” whether we hired that person or not. If the worst outcome is that you are not hired (yet) but you are given credit for your relentless desire to work in the game, then it’s worth it.
Finally, look at the job search process like it is a job in itself. Put in the time. Make sure your resume is as good as it possibly can be. Ask thoughtful questions of any and all people who could help you. And always be ready – after you’ve sent off your resume and applied for a job, you never know when a team might call you. Those people who are ready for an in-depth discussion at a moment’s notice usually make a good first impression. – Jeff Bridich, Rockies Executive Vice President & General Manager
It’s hard to narrow down to one but if I had to I’d say finding opportunities to solve complicated problems in groups. Almost all of the work we do in baseball operations focuses on assessing, predicting, or improving human performance. Human performance is complicated. Almost none of the work we do in baseball is done by ourselves. Just about everything we do is done by teams of people. So I’d say the more practice combining those two things the better. – Ben Cherington, Pirates General Manager
There’s no magic bullet, no secret code to getting into baseball. All of us have a unique story about how we got here, so play to your strengths and put yourself in as good a position as possible to take any job that you’re offered, even if – especially if – it’s not in the area in which you see yourself long term. Every job is an opportunity to show what you can do, a chance to gain valuable experience and perspective on how the game works, and to make sure that this lifestyle is something you want to take on. Finally, don’t get discouraged! It took a lot of us a long time to get into the game, but it’s worth it. – James Click, Astros General Manager
I think there are so many public forums today to showcase your work online. Whether it’s contract analysis, data analysis, or scouting evaluation that you want to do, you can start to build this body of work on your own, before anyone hires you. It is so helpful when we are interviewing when someone has a portfolio already started. It shows how you work and think, but also shows initiative and that you are truly passionate about this line of work. – Mike Elias, Orioles Executive Vice President and General Manager
I’d recommend that you don’t wait around for the perfect opportunity to come your way and instead find a way to create one. People who want to work in baseball will reach out and say they’re just waiting for that “break” to come their way. It’s not uncommon that a year later we’ll hear from them again still waiting for that opening to show up.
My suggestion – dive into a topic within the game that interests you, learn as much as you can about it, and then generate a work product that shows you have the baseline skills and passion to impact a baseball operation as soon as you walk through the door. Don’t be afraid to try something because you might fail. Of all the resumes we get, it’s the ones that are accompanied by a work product (and therefore a willingness to put yourself out there) that generate the most interest. – Derek Falvey, Twins President of Baseball Operations
My advice to students is to create baseball-specific opportunities for yourself. Don’t wait for them to come to you. Volunteer to capture video, analyze data or operate pitch tracking software for your school’s team. Connect with your Sports Information Director and ask how you can help. Learn SQL. Learn Spanish. Contact baseball-centric websites and volunteer your time. Devise your own work product that attempts to solve meaningful questions you believe are currently unanswered within the public sphere. This is especially important because providing MLB clubs with examples of self-driven work product showcases your curiosity, thought process, and reasoning. It’s equally as important – if not more so – than a strong resume.
Students should also understand that our approach to hiring is shaped by our constant pursuit of the next marginal win. How can the next hire help us win games both today and in the future? Students who approach us with hard skills, novel work product and a strong resume quickly move to the front of that line. – Matt Kleine, Brewers Vice President – Baseball Operations
As it pertains to teams and front office, compatibility is the most important trait. This will only exist if you have an above and beyond attitude with the commitment to do the jobs that others simply find meaningless. You must have an “others first” mindset and model that behavior. Finally, never stop looking at this game from the eyes of your youth. – Dayton Moore, Royals Senior Vice President – Baseball Operations/General Manager
1. When interviewing with a prospective employer/executive, be specific about the area in which you want to work. Prove to your audience that you have you done the research in his/her area of focus. This will enable you to be versed enough to hold a meaningful conversation. Those who want a “PARTICULAR job” are much more compelling than those who simply just want “a job.”
2. Be willing to work in any city that has an opportunity to further your pursuits. Don’t let geography limit your search. – Brodie Van Wagenen, Mets Executive Vice President & General Manager
The best way to get your foot in the door is to figure out how you can solve a problem for me that I may not have even known I had. It makes for a much more effective cold call when you email your resume into an organization if you can articulate what you can do that the Reds are not doing today that could make us better. At least it makes us more likely to read further.
Keep abreast of the evolving trends in the industry and tailor your coursework accordingly. If you have baseball experience, focus on adding database management or machine learning or something technical. And if you are technically skilled, work on adding the baseball experience however you can. – Dick Williams, Reds President of Baseball Operations
Prospect Faceoff: Bart vs. Rutschman
The parallels between the Giants’ Joey Bart and the Orioles’ Adley Rutschman are plentiful. Both were standout catchers at reputable Division-I schools –Bart at Georgia Tech and Rutschman at Oregon State. Bart was in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in 2018 but went second overall to San Francisco. A year later, in 2019, Rutschman went No. 1 overall to Baltimore. Both draw significant praise for their defensive skills — each received a 60-grade on the 20-80 scale at both FanGraphs and MLB.com — as well as their raw power (again, both 60s). They’re widely considered to be the top two catching prospects in the game.
Bart 23, is about 14 months older than Rutschman and has already climbed as high as Double-A on the minor league ladder. He spent most of the 2019 season in Class-A Advanced, hitting .265/.315/.479 (116 wRC+) before a 22-game stint in Double-A where he finished on a tear: .316/.368/.544 (163 wRC+). Bart went on to the Arizona Fall League and hit .333/.524/.767 with four homers in 42 plate appearances before a broken thumb cut his AFL stint short. He could stand to improve his plate discipline (6.2 percent walk rate), but Bart also didn’t strike out at a particularly alarming rate (21 percent).
Behind the plate, Bart posted a rather pedestrian 27 percent caught-stealing rate across those two minor league levels before absolutely owning the run game in the AFL, where he caught nine of the 13 runners who attempted to take a base against him. Scouting reports praise his receiving and framing abilities as well as his ability to block pitches in the dirt — all things you’d expect for a catcher who was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year prior to being drafted in 2018. With Buster Posey‘s contract winding down and his production waning, it’s not out of the question to think that Bart could debut in 2020 if the season is able to get underway at some point. If not, a 2021 debut should be considered likely, barring some major injury.
The 22-year-old Rutschman, meanwhile, is obviously further from the Majors but offers many of the same skills. He’s touted as a high-end defensive catcher with a strong arm behind the plate and plenty of pop with the bat. Rutschman hit .254/.351/.423 with a hearty 13 percent walk rate through 154 plate appearances in his pro debut, topping out with Class-A Delmarva. He struck out in just 17.5 percent of those plate appearances, although it’s worth pointing out that he really hasn’t faced any pitching that’s older and more experienced than he is just yet.
Unlike Bart, Rutschman is a switch-hitter. He has power from both sides of the dish even if most reports agree that his left-handed swing is superior to his right-handed swing. He threw out seven of the 11 hitters who tried to steal against him in his limited pro debut and, by all accounts, should be adept at controlling runners, calling a game, blocking pitches in the dirt and framing. It’s reasonable to expect that he’ll be in the Majors by 2022 — and a 2021 debut isn’t all that far-fetched (depending on any service time games the Orioles do or don’t feel like playing).
Given that Bart and Rutschman were elite college catchers who went within the first two picks of a draft class in consecutive seasons, this likely isn’t the only place you’ll see the two of them compared in the coming years. Rutschman is generally ranked more highly on prospect lists, although not by much in some cases. He’s No. 4 to Bart’s 14 at MLB.com and No. 5 against Bart’s 10 at FanGraphs. Other publications have a bit more distance between them, including Baseball America (Rutschman at 5, Bart at 32), Baseball Prospectus (Rutschman at 4, Bart at 25) and The Athletic (Rutschman at 10, Bart at 44). Prospect rankings are in a constant state of flux, though, and the pair is close enough that the consensus opinion could easily change in a few months’ time.
It’s clear that both are expected to become high-end catchers with All-Star potential, but let’s open up the debate (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…
Which prospect would you rather have?
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Adley Rutschman 61% (2,844)
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Joey Bart 39% (1,811)
Total votes: 4,655
Rookie Radar: AL East
We’ve already run through the NL West, the NL East, the NL Central, the AL West and the AL Central in our look at some of the up-and-coming talent that figures to step into the Major League spotlight whenever play resumes. Let’s take a run through our final division, the American League East….
Blue Jays
Nate Pearson and his 100 mph heater are close to the big leagues, and the Jays hope their 2017 first-rounder will cement himself as a controllable top-of-the-rotation complement to Hyun-Jin Ryu. If multiple rotation needs arise, they can turn to southpaw Anthony Kay, whom they acquired in last year’s Marcus Stroman trade with the Mets. Right-hander T.J. Zeuch made his big league debut in ’19, and righty Tom Hatch, who came over from the Cubs in the David Phelps swap, dominated in six Double-A starts with his new org.
As for position players, there aren’t as many names to monitor. Former top prospect Anthony Alford is out of minor league options and is facing an uphill battle as he vies for playing time in a crowded mix. Reese McGuire should be the backup to Danny Jansen.
In the bullpen, Yennsy Diaz landed on the injured list prior to the shutdown due to a lat strain, but he’s already made his MLB debut and now has additional time to rehab. Julian Merryweather, the righty received when Toronto traded Josh Donaldson to Cleveland, is on the mend from Tommy John surgery and could make an impact in relief.
Orioles
Ryan Mountcastle, the Orioles’ 2015 first-rounder, has made it clear throughout his minor league tenure that he’s a force at the plate, but he’s also something of a man without a defensive home. Questions about his glove at multiple positions abound, but he slashed .312/.344/.527 in 127 Triple-A games as a 22-year-old.
Baltimore will get a second look at Austin Hays, who soared through the minors to make his MLB debut barely a year after being drafted in 2016. Injuries tanked Hays’ 2018 season, but he had a huge September with the O’s in 2019 and should get a look as the everyday center fielder. Outfielder Ryan McKenna and infielder Rylan Bannon could make their debuts in 2020, too. Bannon enjoyed a quality 120 wRC+ at both Double-A and a small sample in Triple-A last year.
The Orioles’ rotation looks astonishingly thin, and at a certain point the O’s would likely prefer to get a look at younger options as opposed to journeymen like Asher Wojciechowski, Wade LeBlanc and Tommy Milone. That could mean any of Dean Kremer , Keegan Akin, Michael Baumann or Zac Lowther will be tabbed for a big league debut.
Former top prospect Hunter Harvey could eventually enter the closer mix if the team trades Mychal Givens and if his litany of injuries are in the past. Dillon Tate, the twice-traded No. 4 overall pick from 2015, debuted last year and will get a chance to establish himself. Any of Kremer, Akin, Baumann or Lowther could land here as well.
Rays
Japanese slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo will be among the more interesting rookies to watch throughout MLB. Over his final four seasons in NPB, Tsutsugo hit .293/.402/.574 with 139 home runs, 116 doubles, five triples, a 15.1 percent walk rate and a 20.4 percent strikeout rate. He’ll see time at the infield corners, in left field and at DH. Also in the outfield will be Randy Arozarena, whom the Cardinals sent to Tampa Bay in the surprising swap that shipped top prospect Matthew Liberatore to St. Louis. He’s not regarded as an elite prospect, but it’s hard to ignore a .344/.431/.571 slash between Double-A and Triple-A.
Two-way player Brendan McKay should make an impact at the plate and on the mound. The former No. 3 pick could eventually be joined in the rotation by fellow premier prospect Brent Honeywell, who’s on his way back from last March’s Tommy John procedure. Both are top 100 arms. Look for hard-throwing right-hander Peter Fairbanks to log some innings in the ‘pen.
Tampa Bay’s comically deep collection of infielders will make it tough to break onto the roster, but any of Vidal Brujan, Kevin Padlo, Lucius Fox, Taylor Walls or newly acquired Esteban Quiroz could push for a spot. Of the bunch, Brujan is the most highly regarded, ranking comfortably inside most top 100 lists.
Red Sox
Boston’s infield is mostly set outside of second base, which could make it tough for their top options to break into the Majors. Corner infielder Bobby Dalbec is the best of the bunch but could probably use a bit more time in Triple-A, where he slashed .257/.301/.478 in 123 Triple-A plate appearances last year. Rule 5 pick Jonathan Arauz (taken out of the Astros organization) and shortstop C.J. Chatham could compete for a bench spot. Young catcher Connor Wong, acquired in the Mookie Betts/David Price blockbuster, is blocked by Christian Vazquez but could end up in the big leagues if injuries arise.
Given the Red Sox’ paper-thin rotation, any of Tanner Houck, Matt Hall, Bryan Mata or Kyle Hart could find himself with an opportunity. Hart and Houck enjoyed nice seasons in the upper minors, while Hall, acquired in a minor swap with the Tigers, has elite spin and movement on his curveball (albeit with an otherwise pedestrian arsenal). Mike Shawaryn has been primarily a starter in the minors but moved to the ‘pen last season. He made his MLB debut in that role but didn’t find success (22 runs in 20 1/3 innings). Righty Durbin Feltman dominated after being taken in the third round in 2018 but needs a mulligan after a terrible 2019 in Double-A.
Yankees
Don’t look for many position players of note, but the Yankees have a number of appealing arms percolating in the upper minors. Right-hander Clarke Schmidt has surpassed righty Deivi Garcia as the top pitching prospect in the organization by some accounts, but he only tossed 90 2/3 innings last year (topping out with 19 in Double-A) as he worked back from 2017 Tommy John surgery. Garcia’s diminutive size (5’9″, 163 pounds) has led to some skepticism, but he averaged better than 13 K/9 through 111 1/3 frames across three minor league levels last year.
Those aren’t the only two options from which the Yankees can choose in the absence of Luis Severino, Domingo German and (depending on his recovery timeline) perhaps James Paxton. Righty Mike King made a brief debut (two innings) last season and has an excellent track record in the minors, though he was hobbled by a stress reaction in his elbow last season. Alliterative hurlers Albert Abreu and Nick Nelson both battled control issues in Double-A but are regarded as solid prospects who aren’t far from MLB readiness. If you’re looking for a reliever to watch, Brooks Kriske flirted with a sub-2.00 ERA and averaged nearly a dozen punchouts per nine innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A.
Quick Hits: Tommy John Surgeries, International Prospects
For the millions of fans missing baseball on what would have been Opening Day, the Strat-O-Matic gaming company will try to help fill the void by providing a simulated version of every game originally on the schedule. Today’s action included Brock Holt hitting a three-run walkoff homer to lead the Brewers to a 7-4 win over the Cubs, a 13-inning marathon between the Rockies and Padres that saw Trevor Story hit two homers in a 10-7 Colorado victory, and Chris Archer tossing six shutout innings in a 4-1 Pirates win over Archer’s former team, the Rays.
Some (real life) notes from around baseball…
- Noah Syndergaard, Chris Sale, and Tyler Beede are a few of the pitchers who have chosen to undergo Tommy John surgeries in the days since the league-wide shutdown, which has led to some questions about when (or should) such procedures be performed given that medical facilities the world over are increasingly halting or postponing elective surgeries to free up resources for COVID-19 patients. The topic is broached in pieces from Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, each featuring comments from several medical professionals debating both sides. The issue is further complicated by the fact that there isn’t yet any nationwide standard about such practices in the United States, which is why clinics in different states can have varying approaches.
- Baseball America’s Ben Badler profiles another batch of international prospects expected to sign with MLB teams when the next international signing window opens (a date that now could be pushed back from July 2 to as late as January 2021). The Orioles, Rangers, Padres, Royals, and Rays are connected to the five players in Badler’s piece, with some contractual bonus information known for two of the youngsters. Kansas City is expected to spend “north of $1.5MM” on Dominican shortstop Daniel Vasquez, while Tampa Bay is expected to spend “a little below $2MM” on Dominican outfielder Jhonny Piron. While the dollar figures for this year’s international spending pools haven’t yet been released, the Rays already figure to have committed a big chunk of their available funds on Piron and Carlos Colmenarez, given that Badler previously described Colmenarez as “making a strong case to be the No. 1 player” in this year’s international class. This would seemingly put Colmenarez in line for a major bonus, though the Rays can always add to their international pool by trading with other teams. It’s also fair to assume that the bonus pool system could also see some type of alteration if and when the signing window doesn’t open until January.
Extension Candidates: AL East
There’s no baseball in the present, which has many fans turning to the past, as broadcasters are helping us addicts get our fix by filling the air with classic games from days gone by. But what about the future? Which players are logical fits for contract extensions for the days yet to come?
We’ve already checked in on the NL East, NL Central and NL West. Now it’s time to switch over to the Junior Circuit and check in on the AL East.
Blue Jays
The youth movement is in full effect north of the border, as the team currently has no position players on the 40-man roster who have reached their 30th birthday. That means there are extension candidates up and down the line. From the team’s perspective, they would surely love to lock up their young core players of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio, all of whom have less than a year of service time and are therefore at least two years away from arbitration. However, since all three are the sons of retired big leaguers who made millions during their playing days, they might not be as motivated as some other players to sign away years of free agency in exchange for the security of having guaranteed money in the bank.
One promising youngster without a famous lineage is catcher Danny Jansen. The team could have some desire to lock him up if they think he’s their catcher of the future. But does the team still believe that after his lackluster offensive numbers in 2019?
On the pitching side, the most promising young arm is prospect Nate Pearson, who hasn’t even made it onto the roster yet. We’ve seen some recent extensions given to players before their MLB debuts, such as Luis Robert, Evan White and Eloy Jimenez, but none for pitchers just yet. One wild card is Ken Giles. The 29-year-old has been lights out since leaving Houston and is one year away from free agency. But because of injury concerns, perhaps the right deal could give him enough peace of mind to forgo the open market.
Orioles
The Orioles are about as full into rebuild as a team can be. And the path out of the AL East basement seems to be long and arduous. But one way to brighten the light at the end of the tunnel would be to lock in some quality players for the happier days down the road. Unfortunately, there’s not a lot of guys that currently meet that description.
The team had four players produce more than 2.0 fWAR in 2019. Two of them are now on different teams (Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Villar). And another, Trey Mancini, is suddenly in an uncertain position after recently undergoing surgery to remove a malignant tumor from his colon.
That leaves only hurler John Means, who had a fantastic breakout season in 2019. And since he’s about to turn 27 and is two years away from arbitration, he might want to lock up some cash while he can. But from the team perspective, Means might not be worth betting on at this stage. His 2019 ERA of 3.60 was nice, but FIP and xFIP are less bullish, pegging him at 4.41 and 5.48, respectively. It would be prudent for the Orioles to be patient and see if he has the ability to find repeat success.
Rays
The cash-strapped Rays are big fans of the extension, having signed 11 of them in the decade that just ended. Since they almost never reel in big fish in free agency, Charlie Morton notwithstanding, extensions are the best way for them to get bang for their buck and keep talent on the roster. Just a few weeks ago, they were reportedly discussions extensions with Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows.
As for Glasnow, he finally had his long-awaited breakout in 2019. He just reached arbitration as a Super Two and could conceivably make some decent money with four trips through arbitration. The club would surely prefer to put a cap on his earnings ceiling if they could. And since Glasnow struggled through his first few years in Pittsburgh, he might welcome the security of guaranteed cash to insure himself against those struggles returning. But because of injuries, he only logged 60 2/3 innings last year. He still hasn’t proven he can maintain his abilities over a full season. Until he does, that limits his leverage in negotiations.
As for Meadows, he had a tremendous season in 2019, putting up the kind of classical power numbers that should reward him well in arbitration. As long as he can stay healthy and repeat them. But since arbitration is still two years away, perhaps a compromise could be worked out wherein he gets more money now but sacrifices the top end of his earning power.
In terms of other guys, there are a whole whack of them that the Rays could try to nail down before they start getting paid real money. The list includes Joey Wendle, Willy Adames, Ryan Yarbrough, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe and a big batch of relievers. But of course, with the Rays, there’s always a decent chance they’ll just trade a guy as soon as they get uncomfortable with his cost.
Red Sox
After trading away Mookie Betts and David Price and then losing Chris Sale to Tommy John surgery, it might feel like the Red Sox are a hollowed-out husk. But there’s still a lot of talent on the roster that they should want to keep around. And now that they’ve accomplished their goal of getting under the luxury tax barrier, they should have some room on the payroll to actually do it.
Andrew Benintendi recently signed a two-year deal. But he will still have one arbitration year remaining after that. That means he would hit the free agent market as a 28-year-old, potentially lining himself up for a nice payday, unless the Sox pay him first. Eduardo Rodriguez just had his best season and could also reach free agency at 28. He’s making $8.3MM in 2020 and still has one more pass through arbitration remaining. With Price and Sale gone, and Eovaldi’s injury history, it could make sense to keep Rodriguez around for a few more years for some rotation stability.
Rafael Devers won’t even get into arbitration until after this season. And since he’s only 23, he could bank some cash, give away a few free agent years and still reach the open market before he turns 30. Alex Verdugo is just a bit older but has one more year of team control than Devers. If Boston believed in him enough to make him the centrepiece of their return for giving up a franchise player like Mookie Betts, they must believe he’s capable of helping them down the road.
Yankees
The big-spending Yankees of old seem to have returned, after they blew way past the luxury tax for 2020. But you can never rule out another dump truck of money coming around the corner. They’re the Yankees, after all.
They already struck gold with the first time they signed DJ LeMahieu. He somehow managed to have his best offensive output during a season in which he turned 31, and after leaving the friendly confines of Coors Field. Last month, it didn’t seem like anything was imminent. But that doesn’t mean a deal couldn’t be reached at some point this year to prevent him going on the block. James Paxton is also just one year away from free agency. But given his persistent injuries, would the Yankees bet on him in a big way?
Of course, the 6’7″ elephant in the room is Aaron Judge. The delayed start to the season is giving him a chance to convalesce and approach full health. The slugger will make $8.5MM in 2020 and still has two passes through arbitration remaining before he hits free agency as a 30-year-old. Will the Yankees shell out the big bucks to keep the fan favorite around? Or does his injury history give them pause? Gary Sanchez is in a similar position, but just a few months younger than Judge and with a slightly smaller salary at $5MM.
In the pre-arb department, Gleyber Torres is the shining star. He is sure to reach arbitration after 2020 as a Super Two, meaning he’ll have four chances to get a raise through arbitration unless the Yanks can fork over enough to get him not to. Since he’s on pace to reach the open market at 27, he could give up a few free agent years and still become a free agent at a relatively young age.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Rays, LeBlanc, Phillips, Orioles
Should the Red Sox reload or rebuild? The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham votes for the latter option, arguing that Chris Sale‘s season-ending injury should inspire the Sox to “consider trading anybody outside of Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and Eduardo Rodriguez.” (Personally speaking, I’d also add Christian Vazquez and Andrew Benintendi to Abraham’s no-trade list.) Such a move may seem drastic, though the Red Sox already faced a tough battle to reach the playoffs in 2020 even with Sale, and that was assuming the left-hander was able to rebound from a down year in 2019. With building blocks like Bogaerts and Devers already in place and their luxury tax penalties reset to zero, Boston could look to get back into playoff contention as early as 2021 after trading veterans for the right young talent, and then adding some other higher-priced players in trades or free agency.
Some more from around the AL East…
- It all could be something of a moot point given the indeterminate delay to the 2020 season, though Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times looked at how the Rays‘ roster was shaping up in the latter days of Spring Training. Bullpen-wise, Nick Anderson was looking like the favorite for the majority of save chances, while non-roster invitee Aaron Loup was working towards winning a roster spot, which would have required Tampa to clear a space on its 40-man roster. Kevan Smith and Chris Herrmann, two other veterans in camp on non-roster invites, had seemingly fallen behind Michael Perez in the backup catcher competition. Though the Rays were preparing to deploy five regular starting pitchers, Topkin notes that the Rays were still planning to use openers every once in a while, as a way of managing injuries or giving the regular starters a break if necessary.
- Thursday was the opt-out date in Wade LeBlanc‘s minor league contract with the Orioles, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. We’re reaching the end of the 48-hour window for the club to put LeBlanc on its 40-man roster or release him, assuming some other arrangement hasn’t been made in the wake of the shutdown. Regardless, Kubatko feels LeBlanc is a lock to make the roster, and getting selected would guaranteed an $800K salary for LeBlanc in 2020.
- In another piece from Kubatko, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that no Orioles players are set to undergo any medical procedures. This includes right-hander Evan Phillips, who dealt with some soreness in his throwing elbow in early March and recently met with Dr. Neal ElAttrache for a second opinion about the issue.
Orioles Notes: Mancini, Mountcastle, Hays
Here’s the latest from Baltimore…
- Orioles slugger Trey Mancini underwent surgery to remove a malignant tumor from his colon earlier this month. Fortunately, Mancini is recovering nicely. General manager Mike Elias spoke on the matter Thursday (via Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun), saying Mancini’s “doing really well” and “his physical condition is great.” That’s certainly welcome news for the Orioles and all of those who follow baseball, though it’s unclear when Mancini will be ready to take the field again.
- The Orioles have optioned first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, right-hander David Hess, outfielder Cedric Mullins and utility player Ramon Urias to Triple-A Norfolk, Joe Trezza of MLB.com writes. The most notable player there is Mountcastle, a 2015 first-round pick and current top-100 prospect who ranks as one of the Orioles’ best farmhands. Still just 23 years old, Mountcastle climbed to the Triple-A level for the first time last season and batted .312/.344/.527 with 25 home runs in 553 plate appearances, though that solid production came with below-average strikeout and walk percentages of 23.5 and 4.3, respectively.
- Outfielder Austin Hays figures to enter the season as the Orioles’ leadoff hitter, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes in a piece focusing on their roster. The 24-year-old Hays has dealt with injuries over the past couple seasons, but he racked up 75 plate appearances in the majors in 2019 and posted tremendous numbers. Hays slashed .309/.373/.574 with four home runs, a .265 ISO and seven walks against 13 strikeouts.
Latest On Orioles-Nationals MASN Television Dispute
The television rights fee battle between the Orioles and Nationals is still generally on track for potential resolution — at least, in significant part. But the ever-expanding saga has grown so massive that it now comes with a range of complications. Its ultimate outcome will ultimately carry widespread implications, especially in the D.C.-Baltimore region.
Dan Connolly and Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic (subscription link) recently examined the underlying dispute and its more recent developments. It’s a worthwhile overview of a contentious issue that has turned an acronym for the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network into the name of a monster with a mind of its own: The MASN Dispute.
To be clear, there really isn’t a new development on the legal or the negotiation front. The teams are still at an apparent standstill while they await the outcome of the latest round of litigation.
In terms of the convoluted legal roadmap, it’s best to focus on where things are now rather than looking back … to the extent that’s possible. Last summer, a court upheld an arbitration award in the Nationals’ favor. That judicial decision is presently being appealed. If it’s not upheld, we’re back to square one. If it is upheld, in theory, the initial dispute will in large part be resolved.
Unfortunately, there’s quite a bit more to the situation. The Orioles have injected new legal claims and even launched a separate arbitration proceeding. The initial five-year TV rights fee period has already passed, so even as it remains under dispute there’s another one to consider. And as Connolly and Ghiroli write, there are other complications: tens of millions in legal fees and costs that continue to pile up; the need for the Nats to repay the league a $25MM loan; and a need to recalculate and distribute back revenue-sharing payments from the D.C. organization.
The aforementioned post documents the genesis of the dispute and its connection to the fortunes of these two organizations. The O’s benefited from a near-term cash injection as they controlled MASN and broadcast Nats games at a bargain rate. But the long-term concerns that the Baltimore organization raised at the outset seem largely to be coming to fruition. The Nationals are turning in a consistently competitive product and just captured the 2019 World Series, creating a rosy outlook for drawing new fans from the broader capital region. Meanwhile, the O’s are gasping for air after going all out to take advantage of those aforementioned competitive years, trotting out a low-grade roster and seeing franchise-low attendance figures.
The major question remains whether the two clubs can both thrive at the same time in the same geographic region. They both drew well in successful 2014 seasons, but has the balance shifted south? Connolly and Ghiroli discuss the recent downturn in the fortunes of the Orioles and concerns about the team’s profitability should the Nationals receive a full market rate for their TV rights. There’s no indication at the moment that the O’s are in financial trouble or can’t operate just fine in Baltimore, but the organization’s long-term outlook isn’t clear — particularly with the Nats’ draw creeping northward.
This surely isn’t a zero-sum game; the teams play in separate leagues and could in theory benefit from a friendly rivalry. Cooperation between these teams seems like the best path to mutual success. Orioles owner Peter Angelos and Nationals owner Ted Lerner have handed the operations of their respective franchises off to their sons, which presents some hypothetical opportunity to set aside personal misgivings. But we haven’t seen evwidence of a detente just yet. A return to competitive baseball from the Orioles would obviously help. Baltimore GM Mike Elias says he sees the D.C. organization as a model to follow in building back up the roster.
So … how to sum things up? There’s reason to expect some clear decision points from the courts that will bind both parties. And there are some conceivable pathways to a “more business-like way” of determining rights fees in the future (to reference the words of commissioner Rob Manfred). But it remains largely unclear precisely when and how these ever-broadening relationship problems will be resolved.