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MLBTR Poll: Who’ll Land Zach Britton?

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If you haven’t been reading MLBTR for the last few days, let me sum things up: #BrittonWatch is the new #MannyWatch. Want more details on the Orioles’ efforts to trade Zach Britton? Here are your links: today; yesterday; weekend.

If you’ve already read all of that, or don’t want to spend an hour of your time doing so now, the bottom line is that there are loads of plausible suitors. Varying reports suggest one or another team has been more or less aggressive to this point with offers. On the whole, though, there’s no clear indication that a certain club is closing in on an acquisition.

Rather, it seems the Orioles are waiting for someone to come forward with a compelling offer. The Baltimore organization likely feels rather optimistic about the bidding situation. There a broad slate of interest, with nearly every plausible contender mentioned of late as a potential landing spot. Notably, in some cases, getting Britton would also mean keeping him from another a rival.

Despite Britton’s injury history and lack of a recent track record, moreover, his high-powered recent showing has also perhaps separated him by a significant margin from the remainder of the lefty relief market. Assuming the Pirates don’t move Felipe Vazquez, the rest of the possibilities look decidedly less appealing than Britton (at least, a healthy and performing version of him). Zach Duke is probably the next-best rental southpaw, followed by pitchers like Jake Diekman, Jerry Blevins, and Luis Avilan.

So, #BrittonWatch it is, and while he’s the topic of the day, we might as well engage it. We could debate whether Britton is really as valuable a target as the rumors would suggest, but that’ll ultimately come down to individual teams’ scouting assessments. Perhaps we could also take odds and maintain a leaderboard for pursuers, but just because this is happening in Baltimore doesn’t mean it should be treated like the Preakness. Instead, I thought it’d be worthwhile to review briefly each contender’s case for pursuing Britton before polling MLBTR’s readers as to where they think he will end up.

  • Astros: They don’t really need Britton, but then they don’t really need much of anything. Tony Sipp has been quite good, and youngster Cionel Perez is another big arm from the left side, but it doesn’t hurt to bring in another piece to match up with. And there’s broader uncertainty at the back of the ’Stros pen following the demotion of Ken Giles, so Britton’s experience in the ninth could also be a factor. (H/t to MLBTR commenter Mr. MacPhisto for pointing out that I had missed this aspect of the Astros situation.) Perhaps Houston won’t chase the market, but if the organization decides Britton is its top target, then why not?
  • Braves: There’s cause to add elsewhere, to be sure, but the back of the bullpen is arguably the area that the Atlanta organization is most in need. With Arodys Vizcaino out for a while longer, the team can’t just sit back and hope he returns. Especially if it turns out to be too costly to get a quality rotation upgrade, the Braves could really stand to add here. Then again, the club has other left-handed options (including top late-inning arm A.J. Minter), so perhaps if it’s going to cough up precious prospects, it would be better served going after a righty (especially one with future control).
  • Brewers: It’s tough to see this match representing a true priority given the club’s rotation concerns. Plus, Josh Hader is something like a multi-inning version of peak Britton, while Dan Jennings has been a useful match-up option. Then again, perhaps the Milwaukee organization sees some potential for deepening its relief mix in a manner that will take pressure off of the starting staff.
  • Cubs: The Brew Crew’s chief immediate rival faces a generally similar situation. In this case, though, getting better from the left side in the pen is of much greater concern. Both Justin Wilson and Brian Duensing have handed out walks like candy, and though Randy Rosario owns a 2.03 ERA, he has also managed just 17 strikeouts against 14 walks in his 31 frames.
  • Diamondbacks: Left-handed relief help isn’t an obvious need. Andrew Chafin has been quite good and T.J. McFarland is getting grounders like he’s Britton while cutting down opposing lefties at will (though he’s also averaging just 4.7 K/9). That said, if the team simply wants to get another quality arm into its relief unit, it could see an opportunity to replace Jorge De La Rosa.
  • Dodgers: Luxury tax considerations make this a tough fit, perhaps, and there may not be a ton of urgency with Tony Cingrani set to return and a trio of southpaws already on the active roster. That said, these teams have already proven they can line up on a major deal this summer and the Dodgers may feel the pen is the best remaining area to improve.
  • Giants: The CBA tax factors even larger here, but the San Francisco organization has shown itself willing to give up some young talent to shed salary, so there’s no reason it wouldn’t at least consider upping its offer if the O’s are willing to keep some of Britton’s hefty obligation. Of course, there are plenty of southpaw options already on hand for the Giants, and it seems they are in need of more than a finishing piece if they are to stay in the hunt down the stretch.
  • Phillies: Money isn’t a problem for the Phils. Improving the late-inning mix, especially from the left side, definitely looks like a need. Though Austin Davis has opened some eyes with a strong debut thus far, he’s still green. Lefty specialist Adam Morgan has been solid, but hardly dominant, against opposing southpaws and has been knocked around by righties.
  • Red Sox: The Boston roster is flat-out dominating right now, and certainly doesn’t need a closer. But there’s said to be an interest in adding a significant arm to the back of the pen and it stands to reason that the club will target a southpaw. Vazquez might be a dream get for the Sox, as he’d represent a future closing option when Craig Kimbrel leaves, but otherwise it’s not hard to imagine the club focusing on Britton. (The Orioles, of course, would likely want to leave talks with retribution for having sent Eduardo Rodriguez to the Sox for Andrew Miller years back.)
  • Rockies: While the Rockies already invested quite a lot of their resources into the bullpen, the results haven’t been there, especially from the lefties. Jake McGee and Chris Rusin have struggled; Mike Dunn is on the shelf after a very rough start. It’d hurt to pour yet more into the relief unit, but there’s an argument that it’s a primary need for this ballclub.
  • Yankees: The rotation is clearly the area to target for the Yanks, who now have a big gap to make up in the division. But the acquisitions likely won’t stop there. Chasen Shreve has been bombed by lefties thus far (.255/.368/.574), and top southpaw Aroldis Chapman functions as a closer rather than a setup man, so it’s sensible to think the New York organization will seek an upgrade. Funds will be a consideration, at least, given the club’s other needs and the luxury tax line.

So, which team do you think is most likely to land Britton? (Link for app users.)

Zach Britton Rumors: 7/24/18

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With the Orioles’ marketing efforts building toward a crescendo, lefty Zach Britton came up quite a bit in the rumor mill yesterday and also over the weekend. It appears that’ll again be the case today. With no comparable rental southpaws available on this year’s trade market, contenders that want a live-armed lefty are pushing for Britton, whose once-incomparable power sinker has regained some of its former luster.

The latest:

  • It seems there’s a good reason that we’re seeing a surge in the chatter on Britton. Andy Martino of SNY.tv suggested last night on Twitter that the Orioles are anxious to wrap things up, while Jim Bowden of The Athletic indicates on Twitter this morning that talks indeed appear to be entering their final stages. While there’s no specific timetable, it’s possible to imagine a deal coming together at any time. Britton appeared last night for the first time since the All-Star break and made it through unscathed, but there’s really not much reason for the club to take any risks.
  • The offers will likely drive the decisionmaking from the Orioles’ perspective, though, even if the preference is to make a near-term call. Multiple teams evidently remain involved in talks, so trade packages could yet change. Bowden characterizes the Astros and Yankees as being “in the lead” to get Britton. Of course, it only takes one call for a rival to leap across the track and cross the line first, and the O’s could always decide to extend the race.
  • Indeed, the Red Sox, Brewers, and Diamondbacks are also still in the mix, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links), who also notes that trade talks on Britton remain “fluid.” Both teams have been connected previously to the lefty, but it’s notable that they’re still hanging around the picture. The Boston organization has been rumored to be looking for a major bullpen addition; the need for a lefty and possibility of some notable American League rivals landing Britton instead will surely also increase the motivation. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee club surely has greater needs in other areas but no doubt would love to further improve its relief mix at the right price. As for the D-Backs, there are already three lefties in the current bullpen, but Britton would make for a significant upgrade over the struggling Jorge De La Rosa while freeing the other southpaws (Andrew Chafin and former teammate T.J. McFarland) for earlier-inning matchup work.
  • As yesterday’s roundup shows, there’s no shortage of possible suitors even beyond those. Indeed, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets that the Cubs are another organization considered a serious pursuer. Just two days ago, they seemed an emerging possibility. Rosenthal suggests (Twitter link), though, that the Cubbies may be chatting as much about Baltimore’s top two starting pitchers (Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman) as its best reliever. Meanwhile, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that the Cubs are one of four teams that seem likeliest to land Britton, joining the aforementioned Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees.

Latest On The Market For Zach Britton

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8:17pm: The Yankees are not only involved but have “serious interest,” Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets. He adds that the O’s are trying to get something done in short order, which is perhaps not surprising given that Britton is throwing well now but goes represent an injury risk.

12:39am: The list of teams being linked to Zach Britton continues to grow, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweeting this morning that the Diamondbacks are also showing interest in the lefty. The D-backs join the likes of the Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Brewers, Red Sox and Braves as clubs holding some level of interest in acquiring Britton.

Of course, it stands to reason that virtually every contending club will want to familiarize itself with the asking price on Britton. It’s not known exactly how aggressively all of the teams that have been tied to Britton are actually pursuing him. That said, Rosenthal adds that, similarly to colleague Jim Bowden, he hears the Astros’ interest is “heavy.” The Yankees, who weren’t among the teams prominently linked to Britton over the weekend but are “still trying” to pry him away from the Orioles, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link).

Meanwhile, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported today that the Dodgers could be a tough fit for Britton given the team’s ongoing quest to remain underneath the $197MM luxury tax threshold. Passan cites a league source in noting that a Britton acquisition would put the Dodgers over that threshold.

Certainly, the Dodgers could remedy that scenario by trading away a veteran player, but that didn’t pan out in the Manny Machado talks. Rumors surrounding the Dodgers and Machado at one point indicated that Logan Forsythe could be sent back to Baltimore as a means of offsetting some of the money the Dodgers would take on, but Forsythe ultimately remained in Los Angeles. Perhaps the two sides could come to an alternative solution when discussing Britton, but (speculatively speaking) the fact that no money changed hands in the Machado trade could be a reflection on the Orioles’ feelings on subsidizing a theoretical Britton trade.

On the flip side, it’s possible that the Orioles’ previous talks for Machado with other clubs who also hold interest in Britton could prove beneficial. Rosenthal tweets that the Brewers are indeed among the many clubs pursuing Britton, and their Machado negotiations already give them a good idea of how Baltimore values many of their prospects.

Britton has now snapped off eight consecutive scoreless appearances to drop his ERA to 3.45. Alternatives like FIP (4.43), xFIP (4.02) and SIERA (4.37) still aren’t exactly bullish on his overall body of work, but there’s little denying that he’s been an improved pitcher of late. Britton’s sinker has averaged 95.2 mph over that scoreless streak — up from the 93.8 mph it averaged through his first eight appearances. His ground-ball rate, too, is on the rise and is now sitting at 72.2 percent over his past eight outings.

If there’s a knock on Britton — beyond the $4.45MM he’s owed through season’s end — it’s that his control still doesn’t seem to be as sharp as it once was. He’s walked four hitters and thrown two wild pitches while falling behind nearly two-thirds of the batters he’s faced over his scoreless stretch (35.7 percent first-pitch strike rate). But, with his stuff clearly ticking upward and contending clubs universally seeking to deepen their bullpens, the market for Britton should continue to be robust right up until the moment he’s inevitably moved.

Jonathan Schoop, Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy Drawing Trade Interest

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July 23: The Rockies have been scouting both Gausman and Bundy recently, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Colorado has held a “longstanding interest” in Gausman, in particular, Rosenthal adds.

Colorado’s rotation has been in the bottom-third of the league in terms of ERA this season, though Rockies starters collectively rank in the top half of the league in both FIP and xFIP, lending some more reason for optimism. That said, Opening Day starter Jon Gray has been anything but the anchor the club expected him to be this season, and Chad Bettis has also had his share of struggles.

July 22: Orioles second baseman Jonathan Schoop and right-handers Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy are drawing trade interest, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The Braves have asked the Orioles about all three players, while the Brewers have inquired about Schoop and Gausman, and Kubatko confirms the Yankees’ previously reported interest in Gausman.

Whether the Orioles are open to moving any of those players is unclear, but as a rebuilding team with the majors’ worst record (28-71), it stands to reason they’d listen to offers. Gausman and Bundy would likely bring back appealing returns, considering both the underwhelming trade market for starting pitchers and the fact that they’re affordable and controllable. The 27-year-old Gausman, who’s on a $5.6MM salary, has two arbitration trips remaining. Bundy, 25, is much cheaper ($1.64MM), and he’ll go through the first of three potential arbitration trips during the upcoming winter. Meanwhile, Schoop’s in his penultimate year of arbitration control and on an $8.5MM salary.

To this point, Gausman and Bundy have experienced similar seasons. Gausman has pitched to a 4.33 ERA/4.48 FIP with 7.77 K/9, 2.16 BB/9 and a 46.7 percent groundball rate over 112 1/3 innings, continuing a career of decent production. Bundy has managed a 4.57 ERA/4.85 FIP with 9.64 K/9, 2.61 BB/9 and a 34 percent grounder rate across 108 1/3 frames. He’s currently in the throes of a rough stretch in which he has allowed five earned runs in three consecutive starts. Thanks in part to that, the former top prospect’s ERA has risen by nearly a full run since June 11, when it sat at 3.66.

Schoop, 26, was among the game’s premier second basemen in 2017, when he slashed .293/.338/.503 with 32 home runs and 3.8 fWAR in 675 plate appearances. This season has been a totally different story, though, as Schoop has batted .229/.262/.394 with 11 homers and a replacement-level fWAR over 333 PAs. Moreover, he owns the majors’ fifth-worst xwOBA (.268), per Statcast, suggesting his .281 wOBA isn’t a product of poor luck.

Despite his decline this season, both the Brewers and Braves seem to think Schoop could help them. The fact that the Brewers are looking for an upgrade at the keystone isn’t a surprise, as their second basemen have hit a mere .227/.285/.340 and accounted for minus-0.5 fWAR. The Braves’ interest is an eye-opener, however, considering they have Ozzie Albies at second. Perhaps they could stand to upgrade over Dansby Swanson at shortstop and Johan Camargo at third base, but both players have outperformed Schoop this year, and Schoop has minimal professional experience at those two positions.

O's Didn't Discuss Extension With Schoop Last Winter

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  • Jonathan Schoop’s time with the Orioles may be coming to an end, if recent trade rumors are any indication.  The second baseman tells The Athletic’s Dan Connolly (subscription required) that he hopes he can remain in Baltimore to become a building block for the O’s as they go through a rebuild.  That said, the team also didn’t engage in any extension talks with Schoop last winter in the wake of his strong 2017 season.  That move may have been prescient on the Orioles’ part, as Schoop suffered through a nightmarish first three months that saw him miss time with an oblique injury and post just a .587 OPS over 266 PA.  Though he has hit better in July, the Orioles would still be selling low on Schoop, so they could retain him for the rest of the season to see if he can rebuild any value in the second half.  Schoop has one remaining year of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency after the 2019 campaign.

Orioles Notes: Bundy, Gausman, Britton, Machado Trade

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Among the many trade proposals being tossed around behind the scenes, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) hears that the Twins have been approached about dealing Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar in the same trade, while teams interested in Zach Britton have also asked the Orioles about a larger deal involving Dylan Bundy or Kevin Gausman.  Rosenthal is doubtful either scenario takes place, as Baltimore may not be looking to deal from its rotation and, more generally, teams usually prefer to deal players individually rather than package together several trade chips in a single blockbuster move.  In regards to the Twins, Rosenthal speculates that the Brewers could have been the team who asked about the multi-player deal — Milwaukee has the most glaring need of any contender for middle infield help, and the Brew Crew has been connected to both Dozier and Escobar in reports.

  • More favorable reviews were given to the Manny Machado deal between the Orioles and Dodgers, from front office executives and scouts surveyed by Baseball America.  Speaking anonymously, the evaluators spoke positively about the five-prospect package Baltimore received for Machado, particularly since [which could also go to the Mets’ logic on dealing Familia when they did] rental players have become harder to move in the modern trading climate.  “For a rental these days, getting [Yusniel] Diaz and [Dean] Kremer was good in my opinion. In general I don’t see teams sacrificing top talent for two-plus months (of a big league player),” one American League front office official said.

At Least Six Teams Pursuing Zach Britton

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SUNDAY, 8:01pm: Last year’s failed Britton trade talks between the Astros and Orioles won’t play any factor in this year’s negotiations, The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweets.  A source tells Bowden that Houston is “all in” on acquiring Britton.

3:48pm: The Rockies and Brewers are also in the mix, Heyman tweets.

1:38pm: There are indeed teams ahead of the Dodgers in Britton talks, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, who lists the Astros, Cubs and Red Sox as being “more active” than LA.

8:06am: It doesn’t appear the Dodgers or Braves are “quite as engaged” on Britton as other teams are, Crasnick relays. LA’s wary of the luxury tax, as mentioned below, while the Braves aren’t keen on giving up prospects for short-term help, Crasnick suggests.

SATURDAY, 8:44pm: It’s “at least” a six-team race for Britton, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.

8:14pm: The Orioles are seeking a return equal to or better than the one the Royals received for reliever Kelvin Herrera in a trade last month, Buster Olney of ESPN reports. Washington acquired Herrera for three prospects, though none ranked among the Nationals’ absolute best farmhands at the time.

7:39pm: Both the Cubs and the Astros “are trying to match up prospects with the Orioles,” Jerry Crasnick of ESPN tweets. The Dodgers are also among those who would like to acquire Britton, Dan Connolly of The Athletic reports, though Rosenthal notes that it may be difficult because of LA’s desire to stay under the luxury-tax threshold. No matter where Britton goes, the O’s hope to make a deal happen within the next few days, Crasnick adds.

6:38pm: With Brad Hand and Jeurys Familia now off the market, Orioles left-hander Zach Britton may be the best soon-to-be traded reliever in baseball. The 30-year-old has drawn widespread interest in recent weeks, too, with Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reporting “virtually every top contender” is in on him (video link). The NL Central-leading Cubs are among that group, and they “remain deeply involved” in the Britton discussions, sources tell Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (subscription required).

In at least the near term, Britton would likely serve as a replacement for Cubs closer Brandon Morrow, who went on the disabled list this week on account of right biceps inflammation. Britton has also endured injuries, most recently a ruptured Achilles that shelved him from the start of the season until mid-June. The two-time All-Star got off to a less-than-dominant start in his first action of the season as he returned from that injury, though he has been better of late as the deadline approaches.

Not only has Britton gone eight straight appearances (eight innings) without yielding an earned run, but he has seen his velocity climb closer to its past levels in the process. Of course, Britton has also walked a batter in three straight outings and has issued an unpalatable 10 free passes against 13 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings this year. To Britton’s credit, though, he has posted a 3.45 ERA and a terrific groundball rate (64.1 percent).

While the Cubs are high on Britton, Mooney wonders if they have a good enough farm system to win a bidding war for the pending free agent. Chicago has Baseball America’s 28th-ranked prospect pool, which seemingly places it behind the 8-ball, and Rosenthal notes Britton is likely to yield a “strong” return with so many championship hopefuls chasing him.

Given the competition for his services, Britton to the Cubs may be a long shot. However, if acquired, Britton would further strengthen a bullpen that ranks fifth in the majors in ERA and just added ex-Ranger Jesse Chavez via trade this week.

The Cubs’ relief corps has received great results from Morrow, Steve Cishek, Pedro Strop, Justin Wilson, Carl Edwards Jr., the unit’s top five innings leaders. Although, only one of those hurlers (Wilson) is a lefty, and fellow southpaws Brian Duensing and Randy Rosario are difficult to trust. Duensing has endured a brutal year, having logged a 7.31 ERA with more walks (23) than strikeouts (18) across 28 1/3 innings. Rosario, on the other hand, has done well preventing runs over 27 2/3 innings (1.95 ERA), but with 5.2 K/9, 4.23 BB/9, a sky-high 94.2 percent strand rate and a .238 batting average on balls in play against, he’s an obvious regression candidate. It’s likely Britton would be an upgrade over those two, and if his track record is any indication, he’d join Wilson in giving the Cubs a second formidable lefty reliever.

Dodgers Interested In Brad Brach

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  • Along with Baltimore’s closer, Zach Britton, the reliever-needy Dodgers are interested in Orioles setup man Brad Brach, according to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. The Dodgers have also scouted the Marlins and Rays and “monitored” Athletics closer Blake Treinen, Shaikin adds, though it seems improbable he’ll go anywhere with the A’s making a major push for a playoff spot. Conversely, as a pending free agent on a rebuilding team, the 32-year-old Brach is a good bet to end up in another uniform in the coming weeks. The problem for Baltimore is that Brach is in the midst of his least effective season in a while, with a 4.34 ERA/3.61 FIP and a 4.34 BB/9 in 37 1/3 innings. On the positive side, Brach has struck out upward of nine hitters per nine and generated swinging strikes at a solid clip (13.2 percent).

Cafardo: Yankees' Offer For Manny Machado Included Brandon Drury

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Third baseman Brandon Drury was in the package the Yankees offered the Orioles for shortstop Manny Machado, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. The Yankees’ proposal didn’t suffice for the Orioles, who sent Machado to the Dodgers for a five-player return on Wednesday. Drury has also been part of a 2018 trade, an offseason deal in which he went from the Diamondbacks to the Yankees, but he hasn’t been able to find steady playing time in New York. After entering the season as the Yankees’ starting third baseman, the 25-year-old Drury headed to the disabled list with migraines in early April, paving the way for rookie Miguel Andujar’s emergence at the hot corner. While Drury also offers a fair amount of experience at second base and in the corner outfield, the Yankees have set starters in those spots.

Trade News & Rumors: Trade Value Rankings, Dozier, Andujar, Britton

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Fangraphs recently released its annual rankings of the top 50 most valuable contracts in baseball, or the players who would have the highest value in a trade. High atop the list sits a pair of Indians infielders (Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor), while Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and Carlos Correa round out the top five. The rankings take into account the amount of money each player is owed and the length of his contract in relation to his expected future performance. While the list is top-heavy with young stars (as one might expect), there are a few surprising names later down in the rankings, and a few top prospects even make the list.

Speaking of trades…

  • Twins second baseman Brian Dozier has drawn trade interest from the Brewers, reports Darren Wolfson of KSTP. That comes as little surprise considering the tight NL Central pennant race and the fact that Milwaukee’s second basemen have combined for the third-worst production in baseball to date. However, Wolfson also reports that another (unnamed team) has been “showing stronger interest”. For their part, the Twins (who now sit 8.5 games out of first place in the division) are open to moving Dozier.
  • The Yankees tried to acquire left-hander Brad Hand (who recently went to the Indians), but balked when they were asked to include young third baseman Miguel Andujar in the return, reports Andy Martino of SNY. That’s just one name the club had been targeting in a search for pitcher, but the prices for some of the available names (Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ, for instance), remain “insane” according to Martino.
  • The trade interest in Orioles lefty Zach Britton is “intensifying”, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Kubatko says that he expects Britton to be the “next Oriole out the door.” The Braves have thrown their hat into the ring recently, while the Cubs, Astros, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers and Giants have also been “in the mix”. As Kubatko aptly points out, the removal of Hand from the pool of available names should turn a lot of attention towards Britton.
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