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Rosenthal On Oswalt, Kearns, Dunn

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports leads his latest column with an imagined conversation between Astros owner Drayton McLane and GM Ed Wade, in which Wade attempts to educate McLane on the realities of Roy Oswalt's trade value.  Rosenthal's hot stove notes…

  • Like most people, Rosenthal can't see the Reds splurging on Oswalt.  He finds the Mets "an even less serious contender" due to limited finances.
  • Rosenthal points out that Carlos Zambrano hasn't shown himself to be worthy of replacing anyone in the current Cubs' rotation.  At the moment, the Cubs appear to have a surplus.
  • Rosenthal notes that the Majors' current home run kings – Jose Bautista, Paul Konerko, and Ty Wigginton – could be available at the trade deadline.  Who would've predicted these three would top the leaderboard on May 24th?  With Kelly Johnson tied for fourth?  The Jays acquired Bautista in August of '08 without much fanfare, sending catcher Robinzon Diaz to Pittsburgh.  The Pirates designated Diaz for assignment last November.
  • Austin Kearns would be a nice match for the Giants, suggests Rosenthal.  The 30-year-old outfielder is hitting .304/.377/.487 in 130 plate appearances for the Indians this year.  Nate Schierholtz hasn't been much worse, though he's dealing with a bruised shoulder at the moment.
  • Rosenthal feels that the Nationals will strike a deal to keep Adam Dunn in Washington before he reaches free agency.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Kevin Millwood

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I wasn't a huge fan of the Orioles' acquisition of Kevin Millwood, as I felt $9MM was still pretty hefty for a starter of his caliber and he wasn't likely to return a useful prospect at the trade deadline.  One team executive agreed, citing the Rangers' moving most of Millwood's salary as one of the best deals of the offseason.

With about 28% of the season in the books, Millwood is vindicating Andy MacPhail's acquisition.  The 35-year-old righty leads the American League in innings, averaging 6.8 per start.  He's allowed a fair share of hits and home runs, but has managed a 3.71 ERA due to the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career.

Will the Orioles trade Millwood?  It'd be a logical move, but the Orioles' rotation is already ranked 12th in the American League in ERA.  Without Millwood the team's rotation ERA would be over 5.00 and the bullpen would be even more taxed.  An arbitration offer after the season could net the Orioles a draft pick, as Millwood is currently a Type B free agent.  Of course, the O's would need to offer arbitration and have the Scott Boras-represented pitcher decline.

Millwood has Boras, but he still may have to accept a one-year deal in the $5-7MM range in free agency.  That'd fit with the deals signed by Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Brett Myers, Vicente Padilla, Carl Pavano, and Brad Penny last winter.  At least Millwood doesn't have to worry about a conflict of interest, as Boras doesn't have much else in the way of starting pitching next winter.

Cafardo On Ortiz, Iannetta, Atkins, Lowell

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The key to the Rays' success so far has been their pitching staff, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, who praises Tampa Bay for playing so well despite a few slumping bats. Cafardo says that it may be hard for the club to add another piece or two before the trade deadline, since their budget is already maxed out. However, Cafardo acknowledges that with Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena facing free agency, the Rays may go all-out this year and stretch their budget a little in hopes of winning a championship. Here are some of Cafardo's other notes:

  • After this season, David Ortiz is probably "done in Boston unless he takes a massive pay cut." Ortiz might have trouble catching on anywhere next year, since there's virtually no market for one-dimensional players, and he may not be willing to accept a role similar to Jason Giambi's in Colorado.
  • If Ortiz and Victor Martinez continue to hit, the Red Sox are very unlikely to pursue Chris Iannetta.
  • One of the winter's most disappointing new additions has been Garrett Atkins, who is homerless and sports a .221/.261/.283 slash line in 119 plate appearances. The Orioles will have to consider releasing him if he doesn't turn things around.
  • The Rangers are looking for a starting pitcher and a productive right-handed bat. A Rangers official tells Cafardo that he'd still love to see Mike Lowell in Texas.
  • Cafardo thinks that if the Red Sox fall out of playoff contention and become sellers, they could replenish their farm system, acquiring multiple players for Martinez, Lowell, Ortiz, Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro, and Jeremy Hermida. I'm less optimistic than Cafardo about the caliber of talent the Sox could land for most of those guys.

Remembering the 2000 Trade Deadline

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Ah, times were different back in 2000. Bush and Gore were locked in a closely-contested race. Reality television was the exception, not the rule. And What Women Want taught us that Mel Gibson would be best remembered for capturing Helen Hunt's heart.

Meanwhile, let's climb into the Wayback Machine (though I believe Sherman has already called shotgun) and look at some of the biggest trade deadline hits from the year 2000…

  • The first deal of significance near the non-waiver trade deadline came on July 12, when the Yankees acquired Denny Neagle (and Mike Frank) for Jackson Melian, Drew Henson, Brian Reith and Ed Yarnall. The Yankees didn't lose much, since Henson's production never approached his hype. Neagle, however, was actually nearing the end of a good career, and posted just a 5.81 ERA after coming to New York.
  • Little-discussed, however, is one of the most impressive trade-deadline pickups of all time. On July 21, the Yankees dealt the forgettable Ben Ford and Oswaldo Mairena to the Cubs for Glenallen Hill. For Hill, the deal provided the last, best jolt of power in a home run-packed career. He hit .333/.378/.735 (!) with 16 home runs in 143 at-bats for the Yankees. It is hard to imagine a better example of acquiring an impact bat. Hill, who last played in 2001, publicly admitted to using performance-enhancing drugs late in his career.
  • The most important trade of that time took place on July 26, 2000, when the Phillies traded Curt Schilling to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Omar Daal, Nelson Figueroa, Travis Lee and Vicente Padilla. Padilla was the most productive of the bunch, with a pair of 14-win seasons, while Travis Lee, the centerpiece, hit just .258/.343/.402 in Philadelphia. Schilling, meanwhile, still had 111 of his 216 career victories ahead of him. He posted a 22-6 record in 2001, a 23-7 record in 2002, and had a successful Red Sox career after the trade.
  • Probably the biggest surprise of the players acquired at this time was Melvin Mora, traded with three other players by the Mets to the Orioles for Mike Bordick. The Mets wanted a shortstop and Bordick had a reputation as a strong defender. He posted a .260/.321/.385 mark with the Mets in 2000 and Mora went on to hit 158 home runs for the Orioles through 2009.
  • The Indians dealt a 25-year-old Richie Sexson, along with Kane Davis, Paul Rigdon and a player to be named later to the Brewers for three pitchers to shore up their pitching staff: Jason Bere, Bob Wickman and Steve Woodard. Of the three, only Wickman posted a reasonable ERA, and the Charlie Manuel-led Indians finished five games behind the Jerry Manuel-led White Sox. Sexson, meanwhile, hit 45 home runs in two of the next three seasons. And adding insult to injury, the player to be named later turned out to be Marco Scutaro.
  • In my favorite trade of the 2000 deadline, the Cardinals sent minor league slugger Jose Leon to the Orioles for first baseman Will Clark. All Clark did was hit .345/.426/.655 with the Cardinals, leading them into the NLCS. He then retired- the textbook case of going out on top.

Odds & Ends: Orioles, Scheppers, Pirates, Blue Jays

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As we prepare for a weekend of watching AL pitchers take ineffective swings, here are a few news items…

Orioles Designate Justin Turner For Assignment

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The Orioles designated Justin Turner for assignment to make room for Scott Moore, according to a team press release. Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun anticipated the move earlier this afternoon. Turner, a 25-year-old infielder who was acquired in the Ramon Hernandez deal, was hitless in nine trips to the plate this year. Turner hit .300/.362/.388 at Triple A Norfolk last year, but is not considered a top Orioles prospect.

Moore, 26, was hitting .276/.324/.463 in Triple A. The former first round pick hasn't appeared in the majors since 2008, but he has had brief stints with the Cubs and Orioles. Moore is primarily an infielder and he has professional experience in the outfield.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Hoffman, Bay, Markakis

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On this date back in 2004, Alex Rodriguez returned to Texas to play the Rangers for the first time since being traded (along with $71MM) to the Yankees for Alfonso Soriano and Joaquin Arias. He was booed loudly just like every other road game of his career, though he silenced the home crowd – at least temporarily – with a two-run homer in the first inning. 

 Here are a few links from around the baseball blogosphere…

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.

Odds & Ends: Strasburg, Ruiz, Millwood, Crawford

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Links for Wednesday, as we make sense of Angel Pagan's unbelievable night…

Free Agent Stock Watch: Garrett Atkins

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Assuming the Orioles choose to buy Garrett Atkins out for $500K instead of paying him $8.5MM next year, he'll hit the free agent market once again. This time, he and his agent will have a harder time securing a guaranteed contract, unless Atkins' production surges.

That's not out of the question for the 30-year-old, even though he's hitting .227/.261/.291 without any home runs. Atkins, who makes a base salary of $4MM this year, hit at a nearly identical clip (.194/.270/.285) through the first two months of last season before posting a more respectable .254/.341/.392 line for the remainder of the season. That improvement, plus the not-so-distant memory of his 2006-08 production added up to a $4.5MM payday for Atkins.

This year, he'll need a more pronounced second-half surge to obtain that kind of guarantee. It's been a while since he was a difference-maker at the plate and his defense is below average, according to UZR. Atkins is in the lineup for now, since Rhyne Hughes hasn't hit as well as the Orioles would like. But Andy MacPhail recently told Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun that the O's will continue looking at internal and external options as the club attempts to find more production at first base.

If the Orioles don't replace Atkins and he rebounds this season, he could find a modest one-year deal this winter. If he loses playing time, he'll have a hard time signing more than a minor league deal this offseason. And if the Orioles release him, there's no guarantee another team would have a roster spot for Atkins.

Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Griffey, Pena, Dye

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In his latest Full Count video for FOX Sports, Ken Rosenthal says that retirement could become a more realistic option for Ken Griffey Jr. if the 40-year-old continues to see less playing time. Rosenthal adds that, during their past two contract negotiations, Griffey and agent Brian Goldberg have discussed with the Mariners "how a phase-out might occur," since Griffey hopes to continue his relationship with the team after his retirement. Here are Rosenthal's other hot stove notes:

  • Although Carl Crawford likely won't be a Ray past this season, the club has a chance to retain Carlos Pena. With Adam Dunn, Derrek Lee, and Paul Konerko eligible for free agency after this year, and Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, and Prince Fielder potentially hitting the open market in 2011, there are a slew of alternatives to Pena. A power-starved club like the Mariners and Orioles could make a run at Pena, but it's still possible he ends up back in Tampa Bay, assuming there's mutual interest.
  • If the White Sox decide to blow up their roster, it may happen sooner rather than later, given the ten and five rights that will kick in for A.J. Pierzynski and Mark Buehrle this summer. Pierzynski, Konerko, J.J. Putz, and Andruw Jones would be the most likely trade candidates.
  • Although the Padres spoke to Jermaine Dye in the offseason, they'd prefer to stick to their current, younger players. If they decide to add a bat, it's more likely to be an active outfielder than the inactive Dye.
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