AL East Notes: Kiermaier, Holt, Pearson
Some items from around the AL East…
- The Rays would “really would like to avoid” an injured list placement for Kevin Kiermaier, manager Kevin Cash told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times and other reporters, though Kiermaier is still “in a significant amount of pain” following a collision with the outfield wall on Sunday. Kiermaier hasn’t taken the field since suffering the left rib cage contusion, though Cash was hopeful that the center fielder would be able to return on Friday. Kiermaier already spent ten days on the IL earlier this season due to a sprained left thumb, though 2019 has thus far been a relatively healthy season for the injury-plagued outfielder. His 109 games played is already the second-highest total of his seven-year career.
- Super-utilityman Brock Holt is enjoying the best season of his eight-year career, leaving MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo to wonder if the Red Sox will be able to affordably re-sign Holt in free agency this offseason. Despite missing over seven weeks due to shoulder and eye injuries, Holt has hit .320/.393/.455 over 206 plate appearances, playing mostly as a second baseman to help the Sox fill the void left by the injured Dustin Pedroia. Cotillo thinks the 31-year-old could find a three-year deal worth $27MM-$30MM on the open market, though “that might take a market rebound and some teams rewarding Holt for trending upward this season.” While Boston has a lot of money coming off the books this winter, the club still has roughly $159.35MM in projected salary commitments (as per Roster Resource) and that’s not counting big raises due to arbitration-eligible players like Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. Andrew Benintendi, or Eduardo Rodriguez. The Red Sox have Marco Hernandez on hand as a possible heir apparent utility infielder, should they choose to let Holt go and spend elsewhere. For his part, Holt stated last spring that he “would love to stay here for the rest of my career.”
- In a radio interview on the Fan 590’s Good Show today, Blue Jays pitching prospect Nate Pearson said that he doesn’t think he’ll be making this MLB debut this season. “[The Blue Jays] haven’t really talked to me about anything,” Pearson said. “I’m just assuming I’m going home if we don’t make the [Triple-A] playoffs and just taking some time off. That’s all I really have planned right now.” Pearson has been dominant in working his way up the Jays’ minor league ladder this season, with an overall 2.05 ERA, 10.6 K/9, and 4.75 K/BB rate in 96 2/3 combined innings at the high-A, Double-A, and Triple-A levels. This performance has elevated Pearson’s already-high prospect stock, as he placed 14th and 15th on midseason top-100 prospect lists from MLB.com and Baseball America, respectively. Since Pearson has made only two Triple-A starts and missed almost all of 2018 due to injuries, the Jays are being cautious in bringing along the prized right-hander (plus, service time considerations are likely in mind). Given Pearson’s ability, however, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Pearson in the big leagues before the halfway point of the 2020 season.
Can The Red Sox Mount A Late-Season Comeback?
It has been presumed for some time that the World Series-champion Red Sox were sunk in their quest for a repeat. While the club has easily kept its head above water, it has struggled to bag enough victories in a highly stratified American League.
An eight-game losing streak wrapping the trade deadline — at which Boston held pat — sent the club’s chances plummeting. By August 21st, Fangraphs’ playoff odds tracker gave the Sox a meager 1.8% chance of making the postseason.
But here’s the thing about postseason odds charts: they make for useful, rough gauges as to where a team stands at a given moment. But they can’t and don’t reflect all the nuanced factors that can influence performance swings. And the odds are based upon simulations of how the remainder of the season can play out. Thus, they necessarily change as actual results come in, and can change rather significantly in fairly short periods of time.
(The Red Sox suffered a drop of nearly fifty percentage points from July 27th through August 4th. The Mets did nearly the opposite from July 24th through August 10th — only to quickly shed many of the “gains” with a recent skid.)
With just a month of the season remaining, there are less plausible scenarios. But several of them certainly involve the Red Sox continuing to play once the regular season concludes.
After an 8-3 stretch of play — coupled with middling periods from the Rays and Indians — the BoSox have shot back up to a 9.8% chance by reckoning of the Fangraphs computers. Other systems are less optimistic: 538 puts it at 7%, Baseball-Reference at just 3.1%. But these systems are telling us the same essential thing: there’s a chance, and not just in the Lloyd Christmas sense.
The Indians just lost Jose Ramirez and are still missing some key pitchers, as are the Rays. The Athletics seem to be cresting, but who’s to say the rotation can keep outperforming ERA estimators by such a wide margin? (4.02 ERA; 4.87 xFIP; 4.94 SIERA.) Or that the Red Sox’ opposite fortunes won’t suddenly reverse? (5.02 ERA; 4.44 xFIP; 4.41 SIERA.) David Price is slated for a return, with Michael Chavis perhaps not far behind him. Boston relievers have reversed their fortunes over the past month, perhaps portending good things for high-leverage situations.
Gut out a few extra wins, and those postseason odds will keep lurching forward. Gain some momentum, and perhaps the goal will feel — and even actually be — more attainable than the numbers would suggest. This team has been there before, so there’s no questioning the capacity. And it’s arguably the best of the AL Wild Card contenders from a true-talent perspective.
That’s the argument in favor of a stirring comeback, anyway. But what do you think? Do you agree with the computer simulations, or do you believe the Red Sox will mount a successful charge? (Poll link for app users.)
Will the Red Sox make the playoffs?
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No 77% (7,616)
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Yes 23% (2,229)
Total votes: 9,845
Red Sox To Activate David Price On Sunday
The Red Sox will activate left-hander David Price from the injured list to start against the Angels on Sunday, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. Meanwhile, lefty Brian Johnson will finish the year in Boston’s bullpen, according to Abraham.
Price went to the shelf with a cyst in his wrist back on Aug. 8, which came on the heels of a rough few starts. The 34-year-old owned a 3.16 ERA as of July 16, but the number shot to 4.36 in the handful of outings preceding his IL placement. A significant portion of the damage came in Price’s most recent appearance, in which the rival Yankees clobbered him for seven earned runs on nine hits (including a pair of homers) in 2 2/3 innings.
Recent struggles notwithstanding, the Red Sox will be glad to get back Price, who’s in the fourth season of a seven-year, $217MM investment. For the most part, Price has been a decent contributor this season, evidenced by a 3.63 FIP/3.67 xFIP/3.82 SIERA with 10.77 K/9 and 2.65 BB/9 in 105 1/3 innings. And the rest of the Red Sox’s starting staff isn’t in particularly great shape, which helps explain why the defending champions are 5 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. Injured ace Chris Sale is probably done for the year, former Cy Young winner Rick Porcello has been a letdown, and big-money offseason re-signing Nathan Eovaldi has both underperformed and dealt with significant elbow problems.
Thanks in part to the myriad issues in their rotation, the Red Sox have had to give seven starts to Johnson, who hasn’t produced appealing results during an injury- and illness- shortened campaign. The 28-year-old has logged a 5.09 ERA/5.03 FIP with 5.87 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 out of Boston’s rotation.
AL Injury Notes: Buxton, Price, Laureano, Pence
Out since Aug. 2 with a left shoulder subluxation, center fielder Byron Buxton still isn’t ready to rejoin the Twins’ roster, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Buxton is coming back to the Twins, but only because his rehab assignment hit a snag. He has been dealing with discomfort in his shoulder this week, though an MRI didn’t reveal any new inflammation, per Hayes. “We’re still optimistic that he’s still going to help this team at some point before the season’s end,” said general manager Thad Levine, who added he’s “very confident” Buxton will slot back into the Twins’ lineup this year. While Buxton has been on the IL three times in 2019, he has nonetheless managed 2.8 fWAR in 295 plate appearances, thereby helping Minnesota to a three-game lead in the American League Central.
- Red Sox southpaw David Price “believes” he’ll come off the IL to rejoin this weekend in Anaheim, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes. A TFCC cyst in Price’s left wrist has kept him from pitching in the majors since Aug. 4, which was a particularly forgettable start for the 34-year-old. Price gave up seven earned in 2 2/3 innings against the Yankees then, raising his 2019 ERA from 3.86 to 4.36 in one fell swoop. The hurler’s other numbers are much better, however, as he owns a 3.64 FIP with 10.77 K/9 and 2.65 BB/9 across 105 1/3 innings.
- Athletics center fielder Ramon Laureano has been on the shelf since July 29 with a shin injury, though it’s possible he’ll return without embarking on a rehab assignment, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Laureano has been racking up at-bats at the A’s minor league complex, and he could rejoin the team this weekend or during an upcoming homestand that starts next Tuesday, Slusser suggests. Oakland has done well without Laureano, evidenced by the fact that it holds the AL’s second wild-card spot, but he has been one of the drivers of its success this season. The 25-year-old has slashed .284/.334/.518 with 21 homers, 12 steals and 3.0 fWAR through 419 trips to the plate.
- The Rangers placed outfielder Hunter Pence on the IL on Tuesday (retroactive to Aug. 24) with a lower back strain, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets. The club recalled infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa from Triple-A Nashville in a corresponding move. It’s the second IL placement of the season for Pence, who missed a few weeks earlier in the summer on account of a groin strain. Injuries aside, this season has been a resounding success for the 36-year-old Pence, who earned his fourth All-Star appearance last month. After back-to-back woeful campaigns with the Giants, Pence took a minor league contract with the Rangers in the offseason and has since logged a stout .297/.358/.552 line and smacked 18 home runs in 316 plate appearances.
Latest On Dustin Pedroia
Rehabbing Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia seems to be in good spirits after his latest knee procedure. As Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports, the veteran reports that “things are going really good compared to where I was before the surgery.”
It’s only two weeks out, but that seems generally to be a promising development for a player whose future remains quite uncertain. As Bradford notes, it’s still not clear just how Pedroia will proceed with rehab work — if he does so at all — after several prior attempts at a return have been stymied.
Pedroia, who recently turned 36, is owed $25MM over the next two seasons. While the Boston organization would no doubt welcome a contribution from the long-time star, it’s hard to imagine the club will rely upon a return as it compiles a plan for the offseason.
Since undergoing season-ending surgery in 2017, Pedroia has appeared in just nine MLB contests. But he was still in good form prior to the onset of the physical ailments. From 2015 through 2017, he compiled a .304/.369/.430 batting line in 1,586 plate appearances.
Regardless of how Pedroia proceeds, it’ll be interesting to see how the Red Sox handle the second base position this winter. Brock Holt and Michael Chavis have spent much of the time there in 2019, but the former is a free agent and the latter is arguably better-suited to playing first base.
Quick Hits: Lux, Morrison, Bogaerts
Some stray items from around the baseball world…
- It still isn’t clear if the Dodgers will call up infield prospect Gavin Lux this season, as FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link) said the team is “not ruling out” the possibility that Lux could yet make his big league debut. The potential upside is obvious, as Lux is hitting .407/.493/.747 with 12 homers over 213 Triple-A plate appearances and clearly has nothing left to prove in the minors. If Lux was called up and installed at second base, however, that would leave L.A. with a logjam of A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, and Joc Pederson between two outfield positions, as Max Muncy would then become the regular first baseman and Cody Bellinger would play every day in either center or (more likely) right field. And that’s not even counting other bench options like Matt Beaty, Jedd Gyorko, or how currently-injured players like Alex Verdugo or David Freese would fit back into the roster. Further developments (injuries, slumps, etc.) could change the situation in the coming weeks, of course, so there’s still time for the Dodgers to decide whether not to make Lux a part of their late-season and postseason plans.
- Coming off an injury-shortened 2018 season, Logan Morrison went through a quiet offseason of offers before taking a minor league deal with the Yankees in April, and then opting out on July 1 and then catching on with the Phillies on another minors contract. This has led to appearing in seven MLB games for the Phils, though Morrison tells Fangraphs’ David Laurila that he is considering playing in Japan or South Korea due to both interest in a new cultural experience for he and his family, as well as recognizing his limited future opportunities in North American baseball. “You look at rosters and know that you’re better than guys, but at the end of the day it doesn’t matter because of the economic situation,” the 32-year-old Morrison said. “Having someone under control for six years is more important than them actually being good. The game has turned into where being young is a tool. If you ask baseball people, and fans who want their teams to win, that shouldn’t be the case. Unfortunately it is.” While a lack of contractual interest wasn’t surprising following Morrison’s rough 2018 campaign, he also faced a cool market in the aftermath of a 2017 season that saw him hit .246/.353/.516 and 38 homers for the Rays. That big year only led to a one-year, $6.5MM guarantee from the Twins, with a club/vesting option that could have added another season and $10MM to the contract.
- Xander Bogaerts (and his twin brother Jair) signed with the Red Sox on August 23, 2009, and in commemoration of a decade passing since that key signing, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe looked back at the circumstances that led the Sox to the superstar shortstop. The team was only starting to expand its developmental base in the Caribbean, and it was when scout Mike Lord held Boston’s first workout in Aruba that Lord met Jair, only to learn that this impressive young prospect’s brother was an even better player. Since Xander was absent from the tryout due to chicken pox, Lord arranged for a later private workout, and a film of Xander’s session quickly impressed Boston’s front office. A handshake deal was reached to sign both twins within the week, and though teams like the Yankees, Mariners, Braves, Astros, and Reds all tried to top Boston’s offer, the Bogaerts brothers stuck to their initial agreement with the Red Sox. The rest is history, as Xander has emerged as one of the game’s best players.
AL Notes: Benintendi, Calhoun, Rays
As the American League wild card race gets closer by the day, we’ll take a look at some other news and notes from the Junior Circuit.
- Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi left last night’s game against the Padres in the sixth inning with left side tightness, as relayed by Chris Cotillo of Mass Live. For now, he remains day-to-day, with manager Alex Cora telling Cotillo he’ll be evaluated on Monday’s off day. Benintendi won’t be available today, per Cora, although he was due for a maintenance day regardless, the skipper noted. The University of Arkansas product hasn’t quite emerged as the superstar many envisioned when he was one of baseball’s top prospects, but he’s no doubt a valuable and important piece of Boston’s outfield mix, boasting a solid .283/.357/.462 slash line (112 wRC+). The Sox have won seven of their last ten games, but as Rob Bradford of WEEI points out, they haven’t made up much ground in their pursuit of a Wild Card spot in recent weeks. Fangraphs gives the defending champions just a 6.4% shot of getting to the play-in game, and any long-term absence for Benintendi would only deplete those odds further. Fortunately, the club is optimistic at this point he’ll return Tuesday for the start of a series against the Rockies, per Cotillo.
- Willie Calhoun is beginning to look like a core piece for the future, opines Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Following a slow start to his MLB career, Calhoun has mashed since this year’s All-Star break, and his .292/.333/.579 line on the season is awfully impressive, even considering Globe Life Park’s hitter-friendly tendencies (128 wRC+). Calhoun tells Grant he made a swing adjustment this offseason hoping to elevate the ball and take advantage of his cozy home environment. He’s done exactly that, pushing his average launch angle from 11.6° in 2018 to 18.4° this season. Calhoun’s not without question marks- he’s not well-regarded defensively anywhere on the diamond and his batted ball metrics don’t quite line up with his stellar results- but he’s nonetheless worked his way into the organization’s good graces, as manager Chris Woodward raved to Grant about the slugger’s improved focus and plate approach.
- The Rays are getting some help on the injury front, rounds up Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. In addition to the returns of Joey Wendle and Avisaíl García, the club is seeing some progress on the pitching side. Ace Blake Snell, out since July 22 with a left elbow injury, is on track to throw a bullpen session this week, while potential ace Tyler Glasnow just wrapped up a ‘pen of his own. Glasnow, who’s hoping to return from a forearm strain as a reliever, is on track for a rehab assignment and could return during the club’s next homestand, which spans August 30 to September 8. Contributions from those two, as well as solid starter Yonny Chirinos, who’s feeling better three weeks after hitting the shelf with finger inflammation in his pitching hand, would be a boon to a club up half a game on Oakland for the AL’s final playoff spot.
Latest On Steve Pearce, Steven Wright, Heath Hembree
Injured Red Sox first baseman Steve Pearce and knuckleballer Steven Wright have barely been factors this season, which now looks likely to go down as a lost year for both players. It’s “doubtful” either will take the field again in 2019, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com.
It’s hard to believe 2019 has been so dreadful for Pearce, one of the main heroes of the Red Sox’s championship run a year ago. The midseason trade acquisition was an offensive force with two teams (Boston and Toronto) during the regular season and continued his torrid pace in the playoffs, earning World Series MVP honors for the Red Sox’s five-game triumph against the Dodgers.
As great as Pearce was in 2018, he only appeared in 76 games then. This season, thanks largely to a lower back strain that has shelved him since May 31, Pearce has played in a mere 29 contests. When he has entered the batters box, the once-potent Pearce has slashed a miserable .180/.245/.258 with one home run and a microscopic .079 ISO in 99 plate appearances. That obviously isn’t what the Red Sox had in mind when they re-signed Pearce to a $6.25MM guarantee last November. Considering his meager production since inking that deal, free agency certainly won’t be as kind to the 36-year-old Pearce during the upcoming offseason.
The Red Sox can still control Wright next year, his last season of arbitration eligibility, but he has joined Pearce in enduring a nightmarish campaign. Wright began the year serving an 80-game suspension after a failed PED test, thus keeping him from debuting until late June, and then went on the IL in mid-July with a right foot contusion. The 34-year-old right-hander – a former All-Star – has thrown 6 1/3 innings this season and allowed six earned runs on 11 hits (including three home runs) and four walks.
In better news for Boston, there’s a “good chance” righty reliever Heath Hembree will pitch again this season, manager Alex Cora told Cotillo. Hembree went down with an elbow strain Aug. 2 – the second time the joint forced him to the IL in 2019. The elbow problems have helped lead to middling results for Hembree, he of the 4.06 ERA/4.91 FIP with 10.75 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a paltry 21.8 percent groundball rate in 37 2/3 innings.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Price, Orioles, Rays
Left-hander David Price had been a candidate to come off the injured list and start for the Red Sox on Sunday, but that won’t happen, Scott Miller of Bleacher Report was among those to report. Price, out since Aug. 8 with a left wrist problem, is instead another several days from returning. He’ll throw a 55-pitch simulated game Tuesday, after which the Red Sox will decide a next course of action, according to manager Alex Cora. That’s unfortunate news for Boston, which is a potentially insurmountable seven games back of the American League’s last wild-card spot and whose rotation has been an issue throughout the season. Price didn’t help the Red Sox’s cause in his most recent starts, as his ERA skyrocketed from 3.16 on July 14 to 4.36 after the last time he took the ball. But the 33-year-old has still been among the club’s most effective starters this season. His K/BB ratio (4.06) ranks 26th out of 103 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings in 2019.
- The Orioles fired a combined 11 members of their front office and scouting departments Friday, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com relays. Tripp Norton, who had been the Orioles’ director of baseball operations dating back to 2012 (and was with the O’s since 1998), was the most prominent member of the organization to lose his job. The club also parted with scout Nathan Showalter, son of ex-Baltimore manager Buck Showalter. First-year general manager Mike Elias, who’s attempting to remake the front office in his image, said the team will “be very busy bringing people into this organization” to replace those it let go.
- Red Sox infielder Michael Chavis started a rehab assignment Friday, according to the team’s Triple-A affiliate in Pawtucket. Chavis went to the IL on Aug. 12 with an AC joint sprain in his left shoulder, continuing what has been a rough month for the 24-year-old. While Chavis was amid a slump when he landed on the shelf, he has enjoyed a respectable rookie year overall. Chavis has batted .254/.322/.444 with 18 home runs in 382 plate appearances and 95 games, during which he has split time between first and second base.
- The Rays activated lefty Anthony Banda from the 60-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A Durham, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com. They placed infielder Brandon Lowe (out for the season) on the 60-day IL in a corresponding 40-man move. Banda hasn’t pitched in the majors since undergoing Tommy John surgery in June 2018, though perhaps he’ll serve as a late-season reinforcement for the Rays. The 26-year-old has struggled at the Triple-A level this season, though, evidenced by a 5.57 ERA/6.14 FIP across 21 innings.
Latest On Chris Sale
Chris Sale‘s visit with Dr. James Andrews on Monday didn’t reveal any ligament damage in the star left-hander’s throwing elbow, Sale told reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne) yesterday. For now, Sale will continue to rest following a platelet-rich plasma injection shot, and he’ll be re-evaluated in six weeks.
While any visit to Dr. Andrews is usually considered as an ominous sign by fans and pundits (and as a harbinger of possible Tommy John surgery), Sale described his diagnosis as “not great news, but about as good as we could get. We rest, I think maybe four to six weeks, get on a throwing program and get back to it.”
With the Red Sox sitting six games out of a wild card slot, postseason availability may be a moot point for the entire roster, though Sale in particular seems like a longshot for the playoff roster even if Boston does make a miracle run over the season’s final six weeks. It was already known that the PRP shot’s six-week recovery period would cost Sale the remainder of the regular season, and Sox manager Alex Cora told media that it would “probably…be almost impossible” for Sale to be ready to contribute in October.
This will mark the second straight year that Sale has been limited by a late-season injury, as shoulder issues limited him to just 17 innings from July 28, 2018 until the end of the 2018 regular season. It’s possible Sale could have pitched more if the Sox were in a pennant race rather than comfortably coasting to an AL East title, though even while cautiously deploying Sale during the playoff run, the lefty posted an uncharacteristically middling 4.11 ERA over 15 1/3 postseason innings.
All these injury questions loom large given that Sale’s five-year, $145MM extension with the team doesn’t begin until the start of the 2020 season. Sale fully expects to be ready for the start of the next season, though between Sale, David Price and Nathan Eovaldi, the Red Sox have $79MM in 2020 salary committed to three starters with checkered health histories.
Sale has a career-worst 4.40 ERA over 147 1/3 innings, though that ERA has largely been boosted by a career-high 19.5% home run rate. ERA predictors such as FIP (3.39), xFIP (2.94) and SIERA (3.00) paint a much more forgiving picture of the southpaw’s performance in 2019. His 13.32 K/9 is still elite, and Sale’s .283 xwOBA is in the 81st percentile of all pitchers. That said, Sale also has a 36% hard-hit ball rate, by far the highest of his career.