Cafardo On Jeter, Ortiz, Pavano, Kemp
Barring an incredible comeback or collapse, perennial playoff contenders like the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, and Cardinals won't be playing meaningful October baseball this year. In his weekly Sunday column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe examines why these clubs have fallen short in 2010. He also shares a few hot stove notes….
- One American League executive calls Derek Jeter a "two-year, $8MM-a-year player on the open market," though the exec acknowledges that the Yankees will pay more than that to keep their long-time shortstop around.
- While David Ortiz believes that he could play first base for a National League team next season, he tells Cafardo that he'd rather stay in Boston and DH.
- Carl Pavano's ideal offseason would see him signing a multi-year deal with the Twins. His agent, Tom O'Connell, says Pavano would "love for something to work out" with Minnesota. When MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith looked at Pavano's impending free agency earlier this week, he concluded that the right-hander might have trouble landing more than a one-year deal.
- Cafardo spoke to Dodgers officials who said they'd be very surprised if the club moved Matt Kemp this winter. One team official told Cafardo, "You never know in trades, but I’d guess we’d have to be pretty overwhelmed to give up on him."
- Fredi Gonzalez is widely considered the favorite to replace Bobby Cox in Atlanta, but the former Marlins skipper should be a candidate for the Cubs and Mariners as well. Jim Hendry and Jack Zduriencik both like Gonzalez's managerial style.
Odds & Ends: Konerko, Kuroda, Astros, Morgan
A few links to check out while we wait to see if Jon Garland can halt the Padres' eight-game losing streak and get his team's season back on track…
- The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo wonders out loud (via Twitter) if Paul Konerko could be a fit for the Red Sox in 2011. That speculation, of course, likely depends on Adrian Beltre's future in Boston.
- In a piece for MLB.com, Sarah D. Morris opines that the Dodgers should re-sign Hiroki Kuroda, even though the team's financial situation makes it unlikely.
- ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider req'd) draws the parallels between this year's Astros and last year's Padres, pointing out that both clubs traded long-time stars at the deadline for young players and payroll savings, then went on to have strong second halves.
- Olney also notes that given his disappointing season (.255/.314/.315) and recent suspension troubles, Nyjer Morgan is hurting his chances for future employment. FoxSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi also chimed in on the subject.
- The Nationals plan to call up Cuban defector Yunesky Maya following Monday's game according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson. Washington signed the 28-year-old righthander early last month.
- USA Today's Bob Nightengale recently sat down for a chat with Dan Hudson. Among other things, the righty said it's nice to be with a team that wants him. Hudson was traded from the White Sox to the Diamondbacks for Edwin Jackson before this year's deadline.
Odds & Ends: Jocketty, Pirates, Indians
Links for Friday, before Cardinals host the Reds in a must-win series…
- Tyler Kepner of the New York Times profiles Reds GM Walt Jocketty. Former Padres GM Kevin Towers has some amusing observations about trading with his longtime rival.
- If you haven't done so already, visit our Reverse Standings page to see how the 2011 draft order is shaping up.
- Pirates president Frank Coonelly repeated to Bob Nightengale of USA Today that he is "extremely disappointed" in his team. Asked how safe GM Neal Huntington and manager John Russell are, Coonelly said he is “evaluating every aspect of [the team’s] operation in order to determine how [to] get the club moving in the right direction immediately.”
- As Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports, the Red Sox want 2010 draft pick Anthony Ranaudo to get accustomed to pro ball, but they don't want him to pitch just yet.
- I previewed the Indians 2011 rotation last month; now Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer makes some predictions of his own right here.
Discussion: Adrian Beltre
Last month, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith examined some potential suitors for Adrian Beltre's services this offseason. The 31-year-old should have no shortage of opportunities coming his way this winter after his resurgent 2010 campaign in Boston. It seemed unlikely before this season that the former Dodger and Mariner would reach the necessary 640 plate appearances to activate a $10MM player option for 2011, writes Daniel Barbarisi of The Providence Journal, but with a month to go and just over 100 plate appearances needed, it now seems probable.
Many people in the baseball world, including Buster Olney of ESPN (via Twitter), believe that the Scott Boras client will decline the player option without much thought. After all, Beltre could land a three- or four-year deal on the open market this winter. Our own Tim Dierkes writes that the veteran may start the bidding at about $50MM over four years.
Will the third baseman rake in more than $10MM per season on a multi-year deal?
Clay Buchholz: Extension Candidate
If the Red Sox want to extend Clay Buchholz this winter, there's one comparable pitcher they just won't be able to avoid. Whether they like it or not, Jon Lester's five-year $30MM extension will be a model of sorts for any extension discussions with Buchholz.
Both pitch in Fenway Park against the tough American League East and both authored no-hitters early on in their respective careers. As the table below shows, Buchholz's current career numbers are similar to the ones Lester had when he signed long-term:
Ricky Romero and Yovani Gallardo had comparable numbers at similar stages in their careers and both signed for about $30MM over five years. The Red Sox are no doubt aware of the similarities between Lester and Buchholz and surely realize that locking up Buchholz for five years will cost about $30MM. The team has also committed to Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett and John Lackey, so they may be reluctant to commit tens of millions more to a starting pitcher.
But if the Red Sox are ready to invest, Buchholz seems interested in striking a deal. Back in May, he told Alex Speier of WEEI.com that he would "love" to sign with the Red Sox long-term. We should find out early in 2011 if Theo Epstein and the Red Sox front office want to commit to the right-hander and make a deal.
The Red Sox’ 2011 Rotation
The Red Sox have perhaps the most recognizable rotation in baseball. Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Tim Wakefield and Daisuke Matsuzaka have won a combined 545 games, two of them have pitched no-hitters, five have made All-Star teams and all six are under team control for 2011.
There are no guarantees for any big league rotation, no matter how well-established, and the Red Sox are no exception. Lackey's first season in Boston has been a difficult one; no American Leaguer has allowed more hits and Lackey's ERA (4.60) is higher than it has been in years. Beckett told WEEI that the Red Sox are in a "pretty frustrating" situation and fans hoping for an ERA better than 6.21 from the right-hander surely agree (Beckett's peripherals, it must be noted, remain strong). Meanwhile, Lester and Buchholz have been tremendous and Matsuzaka and Wakefield have pitched as expected.
Those six pitchers have started all but four Red Sox games this year, but the team may have to rely on a more diverse collection of arms in 2011. That shouldn't be a problem for Boston, because they have a number of younger starters ready or nearly ready to contribute in the major leagues.
First of all, there's Felix Doubront, the 22-year-old left-hander who is now pitching well out of Boston's bullpen. Before the Red Sox called him up, Doubront posted a 2.81 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 as a starter in the upper minors. And though Doubront is a reliever now, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein told Alex Speier of WEEI that could change.
"We see him long term as a starter, but like a lot of starting pitchers, the first stage of his big league career might be as a reliever, especially in this organization,” Epstein said.
Another Red Sox reliever, Michael Bowden, climbed the minor league ladder as a starter and could return to the rotation if a need arises. While Bowden has proven himself in the minors, a couple other young starters likely need some more seasoning. Junichi Tazawa is returning from Tommy John surgery, but he should be able to contribute in the majors if he can return to his 2009 form. Casey Kelly, another top prospect, has seen his walk rate and ERA jump at AA, so he will likely need more time in the minors. Another AA starter, Kyle Weiland, has pitched well for Portland and could become a consideration for the Red Sox.
These minor leaguers will, in all likelihood, have to wait their turn. Boston has six major league starters under team control for 2011, so their rotation appears set. Don’t expect the Red Sox to bid on free agent starters like they did last year (Lackey) and the year before (John Smoltz, Brad Penny). Unless they offer Buchholz an extension, the Red Sox probably aren’t going to present any starters with proposals this winter. Even though it’s been a frustrating season for the Red Sox, the organization has a strong group of starters and potential starters for 2011.
Red Sox Rumors: Overbay, Victor Martinez
The Red Sox are seven games out in the wild card, with a 6.3% chance at the playoffs according to Baseball Prospectus. However, keep in mind that BP's report is not aware of the team's injuries. Still, GM Theo Epstein told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, "It's not all about the math." The Red Sox aren't quitting on the season, despite trading Manny Delcarmen yesterday.
According to Cafardo, the Red Sox were close to a deal for Blue Jays first baseman Lyle Overbay. Overbay cleared waivers several weeks ago, but is now dealing with post-concussion symptoms.
In offseason-related news, Cafardo says the Sox "have at least talked to Victor Martinez about a two-year offer." Boston's catcher is hitting .309/.350/.505 since May 1st and has reportedly shown improved defense. He's earning $7.7MM this year, and I doubt he'd forgo free agency without a raise. He's probably looking for more than two years, too.
Red Sox Release Jeremy Hermida
The Red Sox released outfielder Jeremy Hermida, according to Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com (on Twitter). The 26-year-old posted a .203/.257/.348 line in 171 plate appearances for the Red Sox this season, but never became the quality role player the Red Sox were hoping for when they traded for him last fall.
Hermida had been playing in the minors ever since the Red Sox designated him for assignment on July 31st. Baseball America ranked the former first-rounder fourth among all prospects before the 2006 season, but Hermida has yet to be an impact player for a full major league season. He posted an .870 OPS in 123 games for the 2007 Marlins, but has struggled to match that level of production since.
The move is essentially an early non-tender; the Red Sox were not going to offer Hermida arbitration this offseason, partly because he hasn't played well and partly because he makes $3.345MM this year and would have made a comparable amount in 2011.
Rangers Not Likely To Acquire Mike Lowell
5:18pm: Sullivan now hears from the Rangers that they aren't going to acquire Lowell.
4:38pm: The Rangers and Red Sox are discussing Mike Lowell again, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. The Rangers, who are also discussing Jeff Francoeur with the Mets, are "pushing hard" to acquire a right-handed bat by tonight, according to Sullivan, who says Lowell appears to be the Rangers' main target.
The Red Sox placed Lowell on waivers earlier in the month and he presumably cleared. If he had been claimed and the Red Sox had pulled him back, no trade would be possible at this point. About $2.2MM of Lowell's $12MM salary remains. That figure has been an obstacle all season, but the Rangers showed that they have some money to spend when they claimed Manny Ramirez.
As WEEI.com's Alex Speier reports, the Red Sox are not giving up, despite the fact that they traded Manny Delcarmen to the Rockies. Lowell hasn't hit much this season (.234/.309/.373 line), so perhaps the Red Sox believe they have an equally good chance of heating up and re-entering the playoff picture without him. Lowell has a career .841 OPS against lefties, which presumably contributes to the Rangers' interest.
Rockies Acquire Manny Delcarmen
The Rockies acquired reliever Manny Delcarmen from the Red Sox for minor league righty Chris Balcom-Miller, tweets WEEI's Alex Speier. According to a press release, the Red Sox also sent cash considerations. The Rockies were known to be seeking relief help given Matt Belisle's heavy workload and Rafael Betancourt's abdominal strain. At 3.5 games back in the wild card, Colorado has a 15.9% shot at the playoffs according to Baseball Prospectus. Unless Delcarmen cleared waivers, the trade implies Delcarmen went unclaimed by American League teams as well as National League non-contenders.
Delcarmen, 28, has a 4.70 ERA, 6.5 K/9, and 5.7 BB/9 with seven home runs allowed in 44 innings this year. His control took a turn for the worse after the '07 season, and his fastball velocity has been down a tick the last few years. The Red Sox were willing to trade Delcarmen in July, but didn't find a match. The Rockies have had their eye on him for years. If September goes well in the new league, perhaps they'll tender him a contract for 2011 at a small raise on this year's $905K salary.
Balcom-Miller, 21, has a 3.31 ERA, 9.7 K/9, and 1.6 BB/9 with three home runs allowed in 108.6 innings for the Rockies' Low A affiliate. Heading into the season Baseball America ranked him 16th among Rockies prospects, saying he "has the ceiling of a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter."