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Previewing Upcoming Opt-Out Decisions And Player Options

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With the offseason approaching, so is the time for players and teams to decide upon any 2023 options in their contracts. MLBTR has taken a look through various option decisions in recent weeks: first with players whose deals contain vesting provisions, then a respective look at the team options in both the American and National Leagues.

Today, we’ll turn our attention to the players’ side. A number of players could hit free agency this winter either by triggering an opt-out clause in their current deal or bypassing a player option for the 2023 campaign. We’ll take a run through those decisions, many of which will have implications at the very top of the free agent market.

Note: All stats referenced are through play Sunday

Elite Potential Free Agents

  • Nolan Arenado, Cardinals 3B (can opt out of final five years and $144MM)

Arenado was already on a Hall of Fame trajectory before 2022, but he’s bolstering his case with the best season of his career. Through 500 plate appearances, he owns a .306/.370/.567 line with 27 home runs. He’s had seasons with that kind of slash line in years past, but they came with the caveat that he’d played half his games at Coors Field. That’s no longer a factor, and it’s easily his best offensive output once one adjusts for the ballpark. Arenado’s 162 wRC+ is the fourth-best mark among qualified hitters.

That kind of offensive production alone would get him in the MVP discussion, but Arenado’s obviously valuable for far more than his bat. One of the best defensive third basemen in MLB history, he’s continued to post elite marks with the glove even as he’s entered his 30s. Arenado is among the top handful of players in the game. While walking away from $144MM wouldn’t be an easy decision, it’d seem the prudent one from a strict financial perspective. Freddie Freeman received six years and $162MM from the Dodgers (albeit with deferrals that reduced the net present value closer to the $148MM range) headed into his age-32 season. Freeman was coming off a 135 wRC+ platform showing, and he plays a less valuable position. Arenado and his camp could make a strong argument the Freeman contract should represent his floor, and it’s not outlandish to seek a six-year deal at the $35MM annual range Anthony Rendon received from the Angels (which would bring the guarantee to $210MM).

On paper, Arenado’s opt-out decision looks like a slam dunk. There’s at least some amount of uncertainty, though, as he forewent an opt-out opportunity last offseason and told Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch it was “always the plan” to remain in St. Louis long term. Passing on free agency coming off a .255/.312/.494 showing in 2021 is a lot easier than doing so after a career-best year that should make him an MVP finalist. Maybe he’s comfortable enough with the Cardinals he’ll return, but he’d probably be leaving a lot of money on the table to do so. At the very least, he looks to have a case for a renegotiation of his contract with the Cards, which is slated to pay him just $15MM in the final season (2027).

  • Carlos Correa, Twins SS (can opt out of final two years and $70.2MM this offseason; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Correa opts in this winter)

Regarded by many (MLBTR included) as the top free agent in last winter’s class, Correa reportedly turned down at least one ten-year offer early in the offseason in search of a guarantee that rivaled the $341MM Francisco Lindor had received from the Mets last April. That proposal seemingly never came, and Correa reversed course in Spring Training. He signed a shocking three-year deal with the Twins that guaranteed him the largest annual salary ($35.1MM) for a free agent position player and afforded the opportunity to retest the market in either of the next two offseasons via opt-out.

Conventional wisdom was that Correa was sure to trigger his first opt-out and make another run at a long-term deal in a winter unaffected by a lockout. That still seems likely, although he hasn’t resoundingly made the case for teams to be more willing to approach the Lindor range that they had been. He’s having a similar offensive season as he did during his final year with the Astros. After posting a .279/.366/.485 showing his last year in Houston, Correa is hitting .276/.355/.439 over 440 plate appearances with Minnesota. His raw power production is down, but that’s not quite as alarming when considering the leaguewide slugging percentage has dropped from .411 to .395. Perhaps of greater concern is that the elite defensive marks that garnered Correa a Gold Glove last season are unanimously down, ranging anywhere from below-average (-2 Outs Above Average) to solid (+4 Defensive Runs Saved, +1 Ultimate Zone Rating).

There’s no question Correa’s an excellent player having a very good season. Yet he’s not likely to wind up a top five finisher in MVP balloting as he did in 2021. He’d top a $200MM guarantee on the open market, but he’s unlikely to reach the kind of money he anticipated last offseason. Could he return to Minnesota (where he’s by all accounts very happy) for one more year and look to trigger his post-2023 opt-out after hopefully putting up MVP-caliber numbers? That feels unlikely, but he’s already bet on himself once and would only be entering his age-29 season if he put off opting out for a year.

Bogaerts has been the Red Sox’s everyday shortstop since 2014, but his time in Boston could be nearing its end. He and the club didn’t make progress in extension talks this spring, and he’s a lock to opt out and top $60MM on the open market barring a catastrophic injury. One of the game’s top offensive shortstops, Bogaerts is amidst another strong season. He carries a .303/.372/.448 line through 508 plate appearances. His slugging output is below where it was from 2018-21, but he consistently gets on base and has a strong pre-2022 track record from a power perspective.

One can quibble about certain aspects of Boagerts’ profile. In addition to this year’s slugging dip, he’s traditionally rated as a below-average defender. Even with generally solid defensive metrics this season, clubs will probably have some question whether he’ll eventually need to move to second or third base. Those are nitpicks for whether Bogaerts would be a worthwhile investment in the $180MM – $200MM range, though. A 30-year-old shortstop with an elite durability track record and a .299/.370/.478 line since the start of 2020, he’s certainly going to shatter $60MM even if the market takes a relatively pessimistic view of his long-term projection.

  • Jacob deGrom, Mets RHP (can opt of final year and $33.5MM this offseason)

There’s no suspense with this one, as deGrom has publicly maintained his plan to opt out for months. That’s in spite of elbow/shoulder injuries that kept him from throwing a major league pitch between July 2021 and this August. With only one guaranteed year remaining on his deal (plus a 2024 club option that’d go into effect if he doesn’t opt out this winter), that’s been a pretty easy call. To the extent there may have been any lingering doubts, deGrom has silenced them with his first five starts since returning from the injured list. He’s looked like his vintage self, averaging 99.3 MPH on his fastball while posting a laughable 46:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 29 1/3 innings. On an inning-for-inning basis, he’s the best starting pitcher on the planet.

deGrom’s free agent case will be fascinating. Even if he finishes the season healthy, he’ll have gone three consecutive years without topping 15 starts or 100 innings (although he’s obviously not at fault for the shortened 2020 schedule). What kind of volume a signing team can expect is an open question, particularly as he enters his age-35 season. Yet the upside of a healthy deGrom is through the roof. He’ll receive a multi-year deal that beats the $33.5MM remaining on his current contract. Can he top teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM AAV over a three or even four-year term? Time will tell.

While we’re on the topic of upper-echelon starting pitchers who are basically certain to opt out, let’s turn to Verlander. The future Hall of Famer triggered a $25MM option for next season by throwing 130 innings, but that’s largely a moot point. Verlander told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic last week he was likely to opt out if things went as planned down the stretch. It’d have been surprising if he were even considering exercising the option.

Verlander has returned from 2020 Tommy John surgery to lead the major leagues with a 1.84 ERA. He’s striking out 26.5% of opponents and has a strong argument for a third career Cy Young award. He’s also a proven playoff performer and a prototypical ace who eats about as many innings as anyone else in the game. Even heading into his age-40 season, Verlander can try to beat the Scherzer AAV on a multi-year contract.

Verlander did injure his calf in his most recent start, resulting in a placement on the injured list just this afternoon. The Astros announced that an MRI of his calf revealed “fascial disruption, but no muscle fiber disruption” — an extremely specific diagnosis but one that both Verlander and GM James Click touted as good news. Click expressed hope the injury will be short-term, and Verlander suggested that had he sustained damage to the muscle fibers themselves, he’d likely have missed the remainder of the regular season and perhaps part of the postseason.

The manner to which Verlander rebounds will obviously be key in his opt-out scenario, but if he misses only a couple weeks’ time and returns strong for his final regular-season and postseason starts, this opt-out is an easy call.

We’ll wrap up the trifecta with Rodón, who’s also going to have an easy decision, barring injury. While there was some trepidation about Rodón’s breakout 2021 season — both due to his inconsistent track record before last season and some shoulder soreness and a velocity drop last August — he’s doubled down and looks to have cemented himself among the game’s top ten starters. Rodón has avoided the injured list thus far, and he’s striking out 32.1% of opponents while posting a 2.81 ERA through 25 starts. By topping 110 innings, he earned the right to opt out after this season.

Heading into his age-30 campaign, he should land the nine-figure deal that eluded him last offseason. Between his youth and last two years of production, Rodón has an argument for the largest guarantee of any free agent starter. He won’t get paid at the deGrom or Verlander level on an annual basis, but he could push for six years and look to top $150MM.

Quality Regulars Likely To Opt Out

Rizzo’s market last offseason seemed a bit underwhelming. The veteran first baseman was coming off two fine but unspectacular seasons, and it looked as if his best days might be behind him with his mid-30s approaching. Rizzo still made plenty of contact and hit the ball hard, but he’d gotten quite pull-oriented and had rough ball-in-play results against an increasing number of defensive shifts. He signed a two-year deal with the Yankees that paid him matching $16MM salaries and allowed him to opt out after this season.

That now looks like an easy call, as Rizzo has bounced back with a year more reminiscent of his peak days with the Cubs. He carries a .223/.337/.480 line and is going to top 30 homers for the first time since 2017. He’s still getting dismal results on balls in play and doesn’t have a particularly impressive batting average, but even that looks as if might turn around next year. It’s widely expected MLB will institute limits on shifting next spring. Few players would stand to benefit more than Rizzo, who’s facing a shift on a whopping 83.5% of his plate appearances according to Statcast. His age and lack of defensive versatility will limit the length of any deal, but he’ll probably beat the $16MM salary over at least a two-year term, even if the Yankees tag him with a qualifying offer.

The Padres’ signing Profar to a three-year, $21MM deal that allowed him multiple opt-out chances was one of the more eyebrow-raising moves of the 2020-21 offseason. The switch-hitter was coming off a solid 2020 campaign, but that shortened schedule was the first in which he’d posted above-average production. It looked like a misstep when he struggled last year and unsurprisingly forewent his first opt-out clause, but Profar has rewarded the organization’s faith with a career-best showing in 2022.

Through 530 plate appearances, he’s hitting .241/.339/.387 with 12 homers. He’s walking at a robust 12.3% clip while only going down on strikes 15.1% of the time. He looks like a solid regular, and headed into his age-30 season, Profar’s a candidate for another multi-year deal this time around. After major throwing issues as an infielder early in his career, he’s played exclusively left field this year. Profar isn’t a prototypical corner outfield masher, but his plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills should allow him to top the guaranteed money remaining on his current deal.

Starting Pitchers With High Buyouts

Walker signed a $20MM guarantee with the Mets over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal was front-loaded but came with a $6MM player option or a $3MM buyout for 2023. Adding a player option allowed the Mets to soften the contract’s luxury tax hit. Because player options are treated as guaranteed money, it technically qualified as a three-year, $20MM deal with a $6.67MM average annual value for CBT purposes. Yet the $3MM gap between the option value and the buyout meant Walker was a virtual lock to opt out, barring injury that made him unable to pitch next season. The Associated Press reports the option has various escalators that could push its value as high as $8.5MM if Walker throws 175 innings this year, but even that figure is modest enough he’s going to decline.

Walker should opt out in search of a multi-year deal, as he’s been a valuable mid-rotation arm for New York. Over 117 1/3 frames, he owns a 3.38 ERA despite a modest 18.3% strikeout rate. His blend of plus control and solid ground-ball rates makes him a candidate for a three-year pact as he heads into his age-30 season. The Mets will have an interesting decision on whether to tag him with a qualifying offer.

Like Walker, Odorizzi signed late in the 2020-21 offseason on a deal that locked in the first two seasons and gave the player a third-year option. Odorizzi’s contract with the Astros was similarly structured to facilitate a third-year buyout while diminishing the AAV for luxury tax purposes, although he’s deciding on a bit more money. The option was initially valued at $6.5MM with a $3.25MM buyout, but the Associated Press provided a breakdown of various escalators. The option value would jump by $2MM apiece if Odorizzi reached 20, 25 and 30 appearances between 2021-22 in which he either started the game or worked four-plus innings of relief. The buyout value would spike by $1MM apiece for hitting each of those thresholds.

Odorizzi has already made 41 such appearances over the past two years, so he’s long since maxed out both thresholds. He’ll therefore be deciding between a $12.5MM option to return to the Braves or taking a $6.25MM buyout and heading to free agency. With only a $6.25MM difference between the option value and the buyout, Odorizzi looks like a borderline opt-out case. He owns a 3.90 ERA across 85 1/3 innings this season, although his 18.3% strikeout rate is a few points below league average. He’ll be 33 by next Opening Day, and he didn’t find as robust interest as most expected he would during his last trip through free agency. He’s a quality strike-thrower and a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation starter, but it’s now been three years since he’s missed bats at an above-average rate, and he was traded this summer in a one-for-one swap for an underperforming reliever (Will Smith).

Easy Calls To Return

  • Chris Sale, Red Sox LHP (can opt out of final two years and $55MM)

Sale has the right to pass on the final two years of his extension with the Red Sox this winter, but he certainly won’t do so. He’s made just 11 starts over the past three seasons due to various injuries, including a 2020 Tommy John surgery and a trio of fractures (rib, finger and wrist) this year. Sale has still flashed mid-rotation or better upside in the limited time he’s been on the field, but there’s too much uncertainty with his health to land anywhere near $55MM were he to test the market.

  • Eric Hosmer, Red Sox 1B (can opt out of final three years and $39MM)

Hosmer’s opt-in decision is a no-brainer. Since signing a $144MM contract with the Padres heading into 2018, he’s posted a league average .264/.325/.409 slash line. Paired with his lack of defensive versatility and mixed reviews on his glovework (public metrics have never been as fond of Hosmer as his four Gold Gloves would suggest), he’d probably be limited to one-year offers were he a free agent. The Padres will remain on the hook for virtually all of the money, as they agreed to pay down Hosmer’s deal to the league minimum salary to facilitate his trade to the Red Sox.

  • Jorge Soler, Marlins LF (can opt out of final two years and $24MM; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Soler opts in this year)

Soler parlayed a big second half and huge batted ball metrics into a three-year deal with Miami last offseason. His massive raw power hasn’t translated into especially strong results since he’s become a Marlin, however. He’s been a below-average hitter, and it’s now been three years since he was a middle-of-the-order caliber player over a full season. Paired with a limited defensive profile that keeps him in the corner outfield or at designated hitter, he’s been right around replacement level this season. He’s not opting out this year, but a big showing in 2023 could allow him to reconsider the possibility next winter.

  • AJ Pollock, White Sox LF ($11MM option, $5MM buyout)

The White Sox acquired Pollock just before the start of the season, sending Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers in a surprising one-for-one swap. The hope was that they’d addressed a notable hole in the corner outfield, but Pollock’s production has cratered in Chicago. Just a season removed from a .297/.355/.536 showing in L.A., he’s stumbled to a .237/.284/.363 line through 401 plate appearances with the ChiSox. Even with a fairly modest $6MM gap between the option’s present value and the buyout, Pollock is likely to bypass a trip to free agency after a replacement-level platform season.

The present $11MM option value isn’t fixed, as Pollock’s contract contains escalators that could boost it a bit further. Originally set at $10MM, he’d lock in an extra $1MM for hitting each of 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances this season. He’s already surpassed 400 trips, and the 450 mark is well within range with 34 games remaining. Consistent playing time down the stretch would allow him to reach 500 plate appearances as well, although it’s hard to envision him getting to 550. The most likely outcome is that the option price ends up at $12MM, but anywhere between $11-13MM is viable.

Schoop signed a two-year, $15MM extension amidst a productive 2021 season in Detroit. While a defensible enough decision for the Tigers at the time, that hasn’t panned out. The veteran second baseman has a .235 on-base percentage that’s easily the worst in the majors among players with 400+ plate appearances. He’s posted otherworldly defensive marks this season and could well collect a Gold Glove, but the complete lack of production at the dish should make him a lock to exercise his option.

Blackmon exercised a 2022 option last season, and he went on the record at the time as saying he’d trigger the 2023 provision as well. There’s no intrigue as to his decision — he’ll be back in Colorado next year — the only question is how much he’ll make. The ’23 option came with a $10MM base value, but ESPN reported it’d escalate by $500K apiece if Blackmon reached 400, 425, 450, 475, 500, and 525 plate appearances in 2022. It’d jump another $1MM apiece at 550 and 575 trips.

The veteran outfielder enters play Tuesday with 490 plate appearances, so he’s already pushed the value to $12MM. Barring injury, he’s a lock to hit at least the 525 PA mark, and he’s quite likely to get all the way to 575. Colorado has 33 games remaining, and Blackmon is only 85 plate appearances (2.76 per game) from maxing out the plate appearance threshold at $15MM. The deal also contained escalators based on MVP finishes which Blackmon will not hit.

Relievers

  • Nick Martinez, Padres RHP (can opt out of final three years and $19.5MM this offseason, $1.5MM buyout; deal also contains opt-out chances after 2023 and 2024 if Martinez opts in)

Martinez signed a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee with San Diego this past winter. That deal contained opt-out chances after each of the first three seasons for the former NPB hurler, but it seems unlikely Martinez will take his first opportunity to return to the open market. He has a strong 3.02 ERA over 92 1/3 innings during his return season in the big leagues, but he’s worked as a swingman for a San Diego team that has quite a bit of rotation depth. Martinez has excelled as a reliever, pitching to a 1.35 ERA while holding opponents to a .208/.258/.295 line in 40 innings. That’s come with a modest 21.5% strikeout rate, though, and he doesn’t brandish the power arsenal teams tend to prioritize late in games.

Entering his age-32 season, Martinez probably wouldn’t find a better deal that the opt-out laden three years and $18MM (after factoring in the buyout price) he’d be bypassing to return to the open market. The Friars have to be happy with their investment considering his excellence out of the bullpen, but the surprisingly strong deal they gave him in the first place makes it hard to see him doing much better elsewhere even on the heels of a quality first season.

Detroit signed the ever-reliable Chafin late last offseason, and they’ve been rewarded with another excellent year. Through 43 1/3 innings, he’s posted a 2.91 ERA while striking out more than 30% of opponents with an excellent 52.3% ground-ball rate. The market probably undervalued Chafin last winter; it’d be hard to do so again after another very good season. In a vacuum, declining the option and topping $6.5MM in free agency seems likely.

That said, the Tigers decision to not trade Chafin at this summer’s deadline was tied to a belief he could stick around. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press reported shortly before the deadline that Detroit’s proximity to Chafin’s Ohio home could lead him to return in 2023 if he weren’t moved before August 2. That led to a disconnect in his trade value, with the Tigers confident they still possessed a year and a half of his services while other clubs viewed him as an impending free agent. From a strict financial perspective, opting out is the prudent call. Yet the family considerations Petzold noted would make the decision more complicated if Chafin’s priority isn’t simply to maximize his earnings.

San Diego added Suárez, who’d never previously pitched in the majors, on the heels of an excellent career closing in Japan. He had a nightmare outing on Opening Day where he dished out free passes to all three batters he faced, but he’s been quite effective since that point. Excluding his first appearance, Suárez owns a 2.36 ERA with a strong 29% strikeout rate in 34 1/3 innings. He’s still had spotty control, but he’s averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. He’d only need to beat $4MM on the open market, and something around that rate over a multi-year term feels attainable heading into his age-32 season. A rough final couple months could change the calculus, but Suárez seems likely to retest free agency at the moment.

Red Sox Acquire Taylor Broadway From White Sox

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The Red Sox announced they’ve acquired minor league reliever Taylor Broadway from the White Sox. He’s the player to be named later in this month’s trade that sent reliever Jake Diekman to Chicago for catcher Reese McGuire.

A closer at Ole Miss, Broadway was selected by the White Sox in the sixth round of the 2021 amateur draft. A college senior, he signed for $30K but has quickly progressed to the upper minors. The right-hander made just 15 appearances in A-ball before getting a bump to Double-A Birmingham. He’s spent most of this season there, pitching to a 4.74 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. While it’s not an especially impressive ERA, the 25-year-old has struck out a strong 33.9% of opposing hitters while issuing walks at only a 6.4% clip.

Broadway was eligible to be traded even after the August 2 deadline, as he’s never occupied a spot on a 40-man roster. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored this month, players who have spent the entire season in the minor leagues and haven’t been added to an MLB 40-man or injured list at any point this year are still eligible to be traded. Broadway will report to Double-A Portland and adds an upper level bullpen arm to the system.

As for the big leaguers involved in that swap, the Red Sox have gotten the better results through the first month. McGuire is hitting .396/.412/.500 through 16 games while taking the strong side of a catching platoon with Kevin Plawecki. Diekman has allowed six runs (five earned) with 13 strikeouts but eight walks in 8 1/3 frames with the South Siders. McGuire will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason; Diekman is under contract for $3.5MM next season and has a $4MM club option or a $1MM buyout for 2024.

Kennedy: Red Sox Plan To Retain Chaim Bloom, Alex Cora

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The Red Sox have dropped seven of their past ten contests, knocking them four games under .500. At 62-66, they’re in last place in the American League East and seven games out of the AL’s final Wild Card spot. The Sox are very likely to miss the playoffs, and their -48 run differential betters only those of the Royals, Tigers and A’s in the American League.

That’s certainly not what the Sox anticipated heading into the season, and the struggles have predictably led to some speculation among the fanbase about the future of the organization’s leadership. Those questions apparently aren’t simmering within the Fenway Park offices, however. Boston’s CEO/president Sam Kennedy tells Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic the club has no plans to dismiss either chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom or manager Alex Cora this offseason.

“I am very comfortable saying Chaim and Alex will be back. And I am very comfortable saying there is a strong belief in the direction of the franchise from our ownership group,” Kennedy said. “That direction is continuing to build for the future, but also continuing to invest at the major-league level.”

Both Cora and Bloom remain under contract for at least another season. The Sox preemptively exercised their 2023-24 options on Cora’s services last November, keeping him in the fold for two years beyond this one. Bloom was hired to lead the front office over the 2019-20 offseason, making this his third season at the helm. Rosenthal now reports that contract was of no less than four years in length, so even barring an extension, the Red Sox can keep him around at least through the end of next season.

There wasn’t a whole lot of doubt that Boston would keep Cora atop the dugout steps. Originally hired in advance of the 2018 season, Cora led the Red Sox to a World Series title his first year at the helm. The club missed the playoffs in 2019, and Cora was dismissed that offseason when his role in the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal was made public. MLB suspended him for the entire 2020 campaign, but Boston promptly re-hired Cora once that ban was up. During the first season of his second stint, the club won 92 games and advanced to the ALCS. Even with this year’s losing record, the Sox have gone 346-268 under Cora’s stewardship.

The team’s results under Bloom have been more mixed. Boston went 24-36 and finished last in the AL East during the abbreviated 2020 schedule. As mentioned, they bounced back with a very successful season last year, but they’re now facing another possible last place finish. That’d be a second in Bloom’s three years leading the organization, and he wasn’t a part of the 2018 championship squad as Cora was.

As is the case with every baseball ops group, one can point to various hits and misses for Bloom’s front office. The club made some strong under-the-radar moves in the 2020-21 offseason that contributed to last year’s turnaround. The Sox signed Enrique Hernández to a two-year, $14MM deal and were rewarded with perhaps the best season of his career in 2021 before his production cratered this year. They plucked Garrett Whitlock from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft and immediately watched him develop into one of the game’s top late-inning weapons. At the preceding trade deadline, Boston landed Nick Pivetta and Connor Seabold for relievers Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree. Pivetta’s performance has been up-and-down, but getting a roughly league average controllable starter for a pair of middle relievers is a strong outcome for the Boston front office.

Bloom and his group have placed an emphasis on building the minor league pipeline. They’ve seemed to take some steps forward in that regard. Shortly before Bloom was hired in 2019, Baseball America placed the Red Sox 22nd in their organizational talent rankings. Earlier this month, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel slotted them 13th, with last year’s first-round pick Marcelo Mayer now regarded as one of the best prospects in the sport.

At the same time, there are plenty of recent moves that have drawn criticism. The decision to not re-sign Mookie Betts in 2020 likely falls at ownership’s feet more so than the front office’s, but none of the players involved in the return (Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong) have performed as well as the club would’ve hoped this season. Boston’s biggest free agent signee of the past three years, Trevor Story, has performed below his previous career level in the first year of a $140MM deal.

Dealing Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr. and prospects David Hamilton and Alex Binelas over the winter added some talent to the middle tier of the farm system, but it marked a notable step down in a right field position that has gone on to give the team problems. The club’s faith in Bobby Dalbec at first base looks to have been misguided, and their handling of the trade deadline (acquiring Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer while dealing away Christian Vázquez) reportedly sparked some confusion from the clubhouse and others within the organization.

Regardless of how one feels about the moves the Red Sox have made of late, the more relevant question is how Bloom and his group plan to move forward. Aside from the Story deal, the team has been quite cautious from a long-term spending perspective. Assuming Xander Bogaerts opts out of his contract, Boston will only have around $60MM in guaranteed money on the books for next year. Rafael Devers headlines an arbitration class that is likely to push the in-house spending to the $85MM – $90MM range, but there’ll still be plenty of space for a club that exceeded the $230MM luxury tax threshold this season.

The front office has consistently maintained they’d like to work out a long-term deal to retain Boagerts and to hammer out an extension with Devers. There’s no indication they’ve made progress to date in either case. Whether or not Bogaerts is brought back, the club will face plenty of turnover in the starting rotation, bullpen and the outfield. Unsurprisingly, it doesn’t seem there’s any thought of deliberately taking a step back in 2023, so there’ll need to be a fairly significant roster overhaul.

“Next year will be the 22nd season of the John Henry-Tom Werner-Mike Gordon Fenway Sports Group stewardship of this franchise,” Kennedy told Rosenthal of the ownership group. “Since we’ve been here, each and every year we have a goal of playing baseball in October. I do not see that changing. I see us continuing to invest across the entire organization, at the major-league level, throughout our baseball operations. This group is hungry for another World Series championship. … I know we’re in a tough spot right now. But we have a lot of flexibility going into this offseason. I’m really excited to see what we’re going to do with that flexibility and the resources we have.“

Red Sox Designate Hirokazu Sawamura, Austin Davis; Select Zack Kelly

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Aug. 29: The Red Sox have made these moves official, selecting Kelly, recalling Ort, while designating Sawamura and Davis.

Aug. 28: The Red Sox are evidently taking multiple steps to shake up their bullpen, with right-hander Hirokazu Sawamura designated for assignment, according to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. That’s the second such move of the night, as lefty Austin Davis is reportedly being designated as well. Chad Jennings of The Athletic tweets that Zack Kelly and Kaleb Ort will take the open roster spots. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe had previously mentioned Kelly as a possibility.

Sawamura, 34, had pitched in 10 seasons in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball before signing a two-year deal with the Red Sox prior to the 2021 campaign. Coming into today’s action, he had thrown in 103 games with a 3.16 ERA between last year and this year. His 22.5% strikeout in that time is around league average, though his 12.8% walk rate is definitely on the high side. He has been able to limit damage by keeping the ball on the ground, as evidenced by his 51.9% ground ball rate.

There are some reasons to be somewhat bearish on Sawamura, as his .267 career BABIP is below the .290 league average. That might be somewhat related to his ground ball tendencies, but he’s also been hit hard. His 45.9% hard hit rate is about ten points above league average and only in the fifth percentile among MLB pitchers. He’s also been trending in the wrong direction, having registered a 2.48 ERA through July 23 this year but a 5.40 mark since.

Between the Sawamura and Davis moves, it seems the club felt it necessary to make changes to a relief corps that has been fairly disappointing. The club’s combined bullpen has a 4.49 ERA that ranks 26th in the majors. Although some advanced metrics are a bit kinder, none of them view the group as elite.

Sawamura’s contract came with a split option for 2023, with various escalators in play. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently looked at that option, noting that the club option had already increase to $3.6MM. Since that writing, it has ticked up to $3.7MM and still had room to climb. If the club had declined that option, Sawamura would have had the ability to trigger a player option, which had reached $1.9MM as of today and could still have grown further. It seems the Red Sox didn’t intend to trigger their end of the deal and are cutting Sawamura loose.

Since the trade deadline has now passed, the Sox will have no choice but to put Sawamura on outright waivers or release waivers.  If he were to pass through waivers, the Sox would remain on the hook for the remainder of his salary for this season, as well as the $1MM buyout on the 2023 option. As Sawamura has less than three years of MLB service time and has not been previously outrighted in his career, he would not have the ability to reject an outright assignment.

Ort, 30, is already on the club’s 40-man roster, having thrown 15 innings this year with an ERA of 9.00. But as for Kelly, this will be the first addition to a big league roster for the 27-year-old. Having previously spent time in the systems of the Athletics and Angels, he was released and signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox prior to the 2021 season. This year, he’s spent the entire season in Triple-A, throwing 49 2/3 innings with a 2.72 ERA and excellent 34.4% strikeout rate, though a high walk rate of 12%. Boston will give him a chance to see if he can carry any of those strong numbers over to the majors.

Red Sox To Designate Austin Davis For Assignment

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The Red Sox are going to designate left-hander Austin Davis for assignment before Monday’s game against the Twins, according to Chad Jennings of The Athletic.

Davis, 29, spent time with the Phillies and Pirates before coming over to the Red Sox last year in a deadline deal that sent Michael Chavis to Pittsburgh. After that trade, Davis pitched adequately, registering a 4.86 ERA in 16 2/3 innings, along with a 22.7% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 47.1% ground ball rate.

As Jennings points out, 2022 started out well for Davis, as he held a 2.55 ERA through July 8. Since that time, however, he’s been rocked to an ERA of 11.12. His 24.7% strikeout rate in that time is slightly above the 23.5% league average for relievers. However, his 12.9% walk rate is well beyond the 9.1% average.

Given that extended slide, it seems the Sox have decided to move on and cut Davis from the roster. It’s not known what other moves will be made in conjunction with this one, but a spot will be opened on Boston’s active roster as well as its 40-man roster. Given that we are in the post-deadline part of the season, the Red Sox will have no choice but to put Davis on outright waivers or release waivers. Davis began the year with his service time at 2.098, meaning he’s beyond the three-year mark at this point of the year, as 172 days are required to fulfill a “year” in this department. By getting beyond the three-year threshold, he’s earned the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of electing free agency.

Red Sox Option Jarren Duran, Activate Trevor Story

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The Red Sox have optioned outfielder Jarren Duran to Triple-A Worcester, reports Chris Cottilo of MassLive (Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe had earlier reported that Duran’s locker was empty, suggesting such a move had occurred). The move opens a roster spot for the return of Trevor Story, who’s been activated from the 10-day IL and is in the starting lineup for today’s game against the Rays.

While the move may be short-lived with rosters set to expand to 28 in a few days, it will represent a disappointment for Duran, a consensus top-100 prospect entering the season. Though by no means entirely overmatched in the big leagues, Duran’s batting line — .220/.283/.365 in 219 plate appearances — fell well short of the stellar .305/.379/.531 line he posted in Triple-A in roughly the same sample.

Meanwhile, the combination of Duran’s demotion and Story’s return could have something of a cascading effect on the Red Sox lineup, likely pushing Enrique Hernandez to more regular duty in center field and Christian Arroyo to first base, at least until Eric Hosmer returns from injury (per Ian Browne of MLB.com). In addition to offering a bit more defensive stability, Story’s return adds some much-needed power potential to Alex Cora’s lineup card, even as Story has limped to a career-worst .221/.289/.423 batting line in his first year in Boston.

Even if Story returns to form, though, the Red Sox would need a minor miracle to salvage what’s been a disappointing season in Beantown. Despite high expectations and a hot start, the club has been beset by injuries to the pitching staff (including to would-be ace Chris Sale, who suffered a broken wrist in a cycling accident just as he’d returned from a series of baseball-related injuries) and currently sits in last place in the AL East and 8 games behind the Mariners for the American League’s final wild card spot.

The Sox also face a rather uncertain future, with J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, and Hernandez all set to enter free agency at season’s end, with Xander Bogaerts an effective lock to exercise his opt-out clause and join them after pre-season extension talks broke down. Third baseman Rafael Devers remains under team control through next season but will be a free agent thereafter, also a likelihood given the similar impasse reached between player and club in pre-season discussions.

James Paxton Diagnosed With Grade 2 Lat Tear, Will Not Pitch This Season

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Red Sox left-hander James Paxton has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 tear in his left lat muscle and will be shut down for the season, manager Alex Cora informed reporters (including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). It’ll go down as a completely lost season for the left-hander, who hasn’t pitched in a big league game since April 2021.

Paxton has dealt with numerous injuries throughout his career. He’s spent time on the IL in every year since 2014, including an extended absence for a left lat strain that season. Paxton has also been plagued by hand, forearm, chest, knee and elbow concerns. The arm injuries, in particular, have proven problematic over the past few years. The southpaw missed most of the shortened 2020 campaign trying to rehab from a flexor strain in his forearm. While he avoided undergoing surgery at the time, he blew out in the second inning of his first start the following year and required Tommy John surgery.

That procedure ended Paxton’s reunion tour with the Mariners last year before it got far off the ground, but the Red Sox nevertheless signed him to a $10MM guarantee this past offseason. That rather complex arrangement paid him a $6MM salary for this season and contained a pair of successive $13MM club options — essentially a two-year, $26MM deal — for the Sox to decide upon in conjunction this winter. If the team declines the options, Paxton would receive a $4MM player option for 2023 alone.

On the heels of a third straight injury-wrecked season, there’s essentially no chance the Red Sox commit $13MM salaries for the upcoming two years. It seems likely that Paxton will accept his $4MM option, although there’s at least a small possibility he foregoes that figure in search of an incentive-laden pact on the open market. If Paxton declines the player option, the Sox would’ve committed him $6MM for no return on their investment.

That’s not to say it was an entirely illogical bet for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff to take last winter. At the time of Paxton’s signing in December, the club anticipated he’d contribute for the second half and a possible playoff push. Despite a minor delay as he dealt with elbow soreness in May, he indeed seemed on track to get on the mound for the season’s final month. Paxton had ramped up a throwing program and begun a rehab assignment last Thursday, but he faced just two batters before suffering the lat injury.

It has now been three years since Paxton was healthy, but he was an effective starter for the Yankees during his last extended stretch of action. He made 29 appearances in 2019, tossing 150 2/3 frames with a 3.82 ERA and an excellent 29.4% strikeout rate. A trio of teams (New York, Seattle and Boston) have taken successive shots to see if he can replicate that well above-average production in the years since then, but the series of injuries has unfortunately kept that from happening.

Boston is facing a fair bit of potential turnover in the rotation this offseason. Paxton has the aforementioned dual team/player options, while Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill will all be free agents. Chris Sale is under contract through 2024 but coming off another injury-plagued season of his own. Aside from Nick Pivetta — whose 4.24 ERA this season is a career-low — there isn’t much rotation certainty moving forward. Bloom and his staff will have their work cut out for them in overhauling much of that group, regardless of whether Paxton elects to return.

Rich Hill Discusses Possible 2023 Plans

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Rich Hill is currently amidst his 18th big league season, with the long-tenured southpaw set to reach his 43rd birthday before next Opening Day. Among active players, only Albert Pujols — who has already announced 2022 as his final season — is older than the Red Sox’s hurler. Hill, however, tells Rob Bradford of WEEI he feels physically able to continue his playing career beyond this year. He nevertheless also expressed a desire to spend more time with his wife and son, pointing to the amount of time players spend away from their families over the course of a 162-game schedule.

With that in mind, Hill tells Bradford he could consider an atypical approach to next season — sitting out the first few months with an eye towards joining a contender midseason. Hill, who will be a free agent again at the end of this year, suggested he could stay in shape and continue to throw independently for the first few months of next season before pursuing an opportunity with a club around July. “If we look at the trade deadline, even for this year, everybody needs more pitching,” the pitcher noted. “Whether that be out of the bullpen and/or starting, it’s that opportunity to be able to help a team that’s going to be able to go into the postseason and make some things happen, especially with the experience I have in the postseason.”

To be clear, Hill didn’t definitively state he was committed to the half-season approach. He expressed confidence in his ability to hold up physically if he went the traditional route and signed with a team over the offseason and played a full schedule. It seems he’ll wait until the offseason for he and his family to officially settle upon their plans, but Hill pointed to some benefits that could be associated with a hypothetical half-season approach. Waiting until midseason would give him and his representatives at ACES a clearer picture of the standings to target a playoff contender. He also indicated a preemptive rest period could have performance benefits for the stretch run.

“You’ll be 43, but there’s obviously some more to give inside, where you can take those extra couple months to rejuvenate and put the work in and the time in the gym. It could be beneficial for that second half,” he opined. “You’re trying to come back and be as productive and fresh as possible. … I’m not saying I wouldn’t be for an entire season. It just might not be ideal for my family. (It might be better) to spend half the year with my son and my wife, where we can enjoy each other, and start to move in that direction.”

Hill, who has suited up for a whopping 11 teams in his big league career, signed a $5MM guarantee to return for a third MLB stint with the Red Sox last December. He lost most of July to a left knee sprain but has been a useful back-of-the-rotation contributor when healthy. Hill has given the Sox 82 2/3 innings of 4.68 ERA ball. While his 18% strikeout rate and 8.4% swinging strike percentage are each below-average, he remains a capable strike-thrower and has held left-handed opponents to a meager .220/.278/.320 line in 54 plate appearances on the year.

Between that production and Hill’s wealth of major league experience, he should still find interest from teams during the upcoming offseason. Whether he elects to pursue a job during the winter or holds off until the middle of next season remains to be seen, but his comments to Bradford indicate he’s eyeing a 19th MLB campaign in some capacity.

Red Sox Place Nathan Eovaldi, Eric Hosmer On Injured List

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The Red Sox have placed right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and first baseman Eric Hosmer on the injured list, with Eovaldi heading to the 15-day IL (retroactive to August 19) and Hosmer to the 10-day IL (retro August 21).  Right-hander Josh Winckowski and first baseman Franchy Cordero were called up from Triple-A in corresponding moves, and Winckowski will start tonight’s game against the Blue Jays.

Eovaldi has been bothered by soreness in his neck and right shoulder, and an IL placement isn’t surprising given that he’d already been scratched from a start against the Pirates last Thursday and tonight’s start against Toronto.  Officially, Eovaldi is now on the 15-day IL due to right shoulder inflammation, and he also missed a month due to back inflammation earlier this season.

Over the weekend, Eovaldi told reporters that his soreness was improving and that he hoped to avoid another IL trip altogether.  This at least gives some hope that Eovaldi can return when first eligible, though he’ll now be out of action until September, leaving the Red Sox short a major arm at the front of their rotation.

Multiple injuries within the rotation allowed Winckowski to make 12 starts and pitch 60 2/3 innings in his first Major League season.  The righty has only a 5.19 ERA, as his grounder-heavy, low-strikeout approach hasn’t yet found much consistent success against MLB batters.

Hosmer has been sidelined due to lower back inflammation.  Since being acquired from the Padres at the trade deadline, Hosmer has hit .225/.311/.300 in his first 45 plate appearances with Boston, continuing the prolonged slump that has lasted for the veteran first baseman since he enjoyed a huge April.  Cordero and Bobby Dalbec figure to get most of the first base time in Hosmer’s absence, with the versatile Christian Arroyo also perhaps factoring into the mix.

One name not yet involved is Triston Casas, as the Red Sox continued to hold off giving the top prospect his first taste of big league action.  His development was slowed by a high ankle sprain that cost him two months of the season, but Casas has hit a solid (if not dominant) .258/.367/.458 over 270 PA with Triple-A Worcester.  It seems likely that Casas will make his MLB debut before the season is out, though the question is when exactly the Sox will decide to take their first look at the 22-year-old.

Nathan Eovaldi Likely To Be Placed On IL Due To Neck/Shoulder Soreness

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Aug. 22: Chris Cotillo of MassLive tweets that Eovaldi will likely be placed on the 15-day injured list in order to make room on the roster for Josh Winckowski, who is taking the ball in Eovaldi’s place for tomorrow’s game.

Aug. 21: The Red Sox skipped Nathan Eovaldi’s last turn through the rotation since the right-hander was dealing with soreness in his neck and shoulder.  The issue is still bothering Eovaldi, and manager Alex Cora told MLB.com’s Ian Browne (Twitter links) and other reporters that Eovaldi won’t make his next start, scheduled for Tuesday against the Blue Jays.  Another trip to the injured list hasn’t been ruled out, though Cora said the Sox haven’t yet decided how to proceed.

For Eovaldi, he said that staying off the IL is “the main goal,” since he is “feeling a lot better” than earlier in the week, even if the recovery process is “going a little slower than we anticipated.”  Needless to say, it has been a “frustrating” time for the righty, who said that “every day, it’s just how can we make sure that I’m 100 percent especially going down the road for this next stretch.”

Eovaldi already missed a little more than month of the season due to inflammation in his lower back, and injuries have hampered the right-hander for much of his career.  2021 was a rare healthy season for Eovaldi, and he responded with a 3.75 ERA over 182 1/3 innings and a fourth-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting — indicative of just how high Eovaldi’s ceiling can be if he can just stay on the field.

With a 4.15 ERA over 99 2/3 innings this season, Eovaldi’s bottom-line numbers aren’t far off his 2021 totals, and he still has an elite walk rate.  However, Eovaldi has allowed more hard contact than almost any other pitcher in the league, and his strikeout has dropped to a middling 22.7%.  Despite this step backwards, Eovaldi is still arguably Boston’s best starting pitcher, and is critical to whatever chance the Red Sox might still have of sneaking back into the wild card hunt.

In the bigger picture, Eovaldi is also a free agent after the season, and would surely prefer to reach the open market without yet another IL stint on his resume.  Eovaldi already hasn’t appeared in a game since August 12, and even with up to three days of backdating available on an injured-list placement, putting Eovaldi on the IL would keep him out of action until September.  If Eovaldi is already feeling some improvement, the Sox could take the risk of leaving him off the IL, though another setback (which presumably would then make an IL stint a foregone conclusion) would delay his return even further.

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