10 Players Receive Qualifying Offers
It appears that ten players have received qualifying offers this year. Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounds up the full slate of players on Twitter, some of whom were already reported and covered on this site.
This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM for a one-year term. Players issued the offer will have ten days to assess their options. Should a player reject the offer and fail to work out a deal with their existing team, he will enter the market carrying the requirement that a signing team sacrifice draft compensation. (While the former team would not stand to lose a pick, it would not gain a compensatory pick if it re-signs that player.) Click here for a full rundown of the QO rules.
This represents a bounce back up in the number of players to receive a qualifying offer. Last year was a record-low of seven, with other offseasons ranging from nine (2012, 2017) all the way up to twenty offers (2015).
Here are the ten players:
- Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
- Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants
- Gerrit Cole, SP, Astros
- Josh Donaldson, 3B, Braves
- Jake Odorizzi, SP, Twins
- Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals
- Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals
- Will Smith, RP, Giants
- Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals
- Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets
There are a few notable players that were eligible for the QO but did not receive it. Those players will hit the open market free and clear of draft compensation. Didi Gregorius of the Yankees and Cole Hamels of the Cubs were perhaps the leading possibilities beyond those that received the offer. J.D. Martinez would surely have received one from the Red Sox had he opted out of his deal; Aroldis Chapman was also certain to get a QO had he not agreed to a new contract. Quite a few other prominent free agents were ineligible because they were traded during the 2019 season and/or had previously received a qualifying offer.
J.D. Martinez Will Not Opt Out Of Red Sox Contract
Outfielder J.D. Martinez will not opt out of his contract with the Red Sox, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The 32-year-old Martinez had the option of collecting a $2.5MM buyout to forgo the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his contract but will instead once again serve as Boston’s primary designated hitter in 2020.
Martinez, signed to a five-year, $110MM contract prior to the 2018 season, enjoyed a career-year with in the first season of that deal, hitting .330/.402/.629 with 43 home runs. He followed that up with a terrific .304/.383/.557 slash through 657 trips to the plate.
That excellence at least created the possibility of Martinez opting out, but the market was also a poor one for Martinez, given the lack of contending clubs (or hopeful contenders) with an opening at designated hitter. The Astros (Yordan Alvarez), Angels (Albert Pujols/Shohei Ohtani) and Twins (Nelson Cruz), for instance, all have solidified options there. The Yankees have a number of options to rotate through their DH slot (Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Luke Voit, Mike Ford and Greg Bird among them). Other clubs, including the Rays, Indians and incumbent Red Sox all face varying degrees of payroll issues. National League teams, surely, would be reluctant to issue a multi-year pact to a player with such defensive limitations.
Beyond the clearly sub-optimal market factors, Martinez will have another bite at the free-agent apple next year via a second opt-out provision in the aforementioned five-year deal. He’ll now earn $23.75MM in 2020 before having the opportunity to test free agency again next winter when he’ll have two years and $38.75MM remaining on his contract.
The decision has significant long-term ramifications for the team as well. Already, there have been rumors about the Red Sox shopping 2018 AL MVP Mookie Betts this winter as he heads into his final season of club control. Some of that is tied to the fact that the Betts has, to this point, insisted upon testing the free-agent market rather than explore a potential extension, but Boston’s luxury tax situation is also a clear factor. The Red Sox are currently $28MM over the luxury tax threshold, placing them firmly into the second tier of penalties. Had Martinez opted out of his deal, they’d have seen $22MM subtracted from that luxury ledger, but they’ll now likely search for alternative means of reducing their levels of penalization.
Red Sox Outright Juan Centeno
The Red Sox have announced that catcher Juan Centeno was outrighted from the 40-man roster. He elected free agency.
Soon to reach his 30th birthday, Centeno will go out searching for the best possible opportunity this winter. He has appeared in the bigs in each of the past seven seasons, but still has only appeared in 118 games in total.
Centeno offers a relatively rare left-handed bat from the catching position, but hasn’t hit much in his opportunities. In 371 plate appearances in the majors, he carries a .223/.278/.323 batting line. Centeno slashed .248/.321/.350 in his 301 Triple-A plate appearances this season.
AL East Notes: Chapman, Yankees, Liu, Edwin
Some items from around the AL East…
- Negotiations between Aroldis Chapman and the Yankees about the closer’s contract extension apparently came down to the final moments before the deadline for Chapman to decide whether or not to exercise his opt-out clause, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. Chapman was hoping to have two extra years added onto the remaining two years on his pre-existing contract, but ultimately settled for just one extra season ($18MM for the 2022 season).
- The impact of Chapman’s new contract on the Yankees‘ luxury tax situation is examined by Joel Sherman of the New York Post, who observes that the extension won’t lead to any savings due to the “true-up charge” associated with the specific breakdown of how Chapman’s salaries were paid out over the first three years of his deal, largely due to a signing bonus payout. As a result, Chapman’s new tax number is $17.5MM over the next three years, which doesn’t help alleviate the crunch for a Yankees team that Sherman figures is already approaching the $208MM threshold for 2020 just with pre-existing roster talent. The Yankees will face tax penalties for surpassing the second level ($226MM) of the tax threshold in 2019, and it remains to be seen how far over the $208MM threshold ownership will allow the front office to go in 2020. As Sherman notes, ownership would presumably balk at surpassing the top penalty level of $248MM, which would impact the Yankees’ chances of adding a mega-salary (i.e. for a Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg) and retaining free agents like Didi Gregorius or Dellin Betances.
- A brief scouting report on newly-signed Red Sox right-hander Chih-Jung Liu is provided by former big leaguer Chien-Ming Wang to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, as Wang has worked with the 20-year-old prospect. Liu “needs to improve his slider and splitter to have a good out pitch” and “needs to build up his arm strength and pitch count,” Wang said. These aren’t unusual criticisms for any young pitcher, especially for a case like Liu, who mostly played shortstop in high school and only recently got back into pitching. Liu is also “bright” and “seems to be able to adapt to [a] new environment quickly,” Wang said, and he also noted that Liu asked him how to throw a sinkerball, Wang’s signature pitch. Abraham reports that the Phillies and Diamondbacks were among the other teams who had interest in Liu before the Red Sox signed him for $750K.
- Now that Edwin Encarnacion is officially a free agent, could the slugger potentially return to the Blue Jays? There is room on paper, as Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith notes that the Jays have a vacancy at first base/DH since Justin Smoak is also headed for free agency, and Encarnacion could likely be had on a fairly inexpensive one-year deal. However, with the Blue Jays still in rebuild mode, Nicholson-Smith figures it probably makes more sense for the club to “find the next Encarnacion instead,” i.e. a player who can be an important contributor for several years. Toronto GM Ross Atkins has also spoken of wanting a first baseman who can play multiple positions, while Encarnacion is limited to first base (and could best be suited for a DH role altogether).
Red Sox Claim Josh Osich
The Red Sox have claimed left-hander Josh Osich off waivers from the White Sox, as per a team announcement.
Originally claimed off waivers from the Orioles last March, Osich posted a 4.66 ERA, 4.07 K/9 rate, and 8.1 K/9 over 67 2/3 relief innings for the White Sox last season. Osich’s effectiveness was limited to same-sided batters, as he held left-handed hitters to only a .551 OPS (115 plate appearances) while right-handed hitters mashed him to the tune of a .903 OPS (157 PA).
These numbers largely match Osich’s rather lopsided splits for his career, making him one of many specialist relievers (particularly lefties) whose careers could be altered by the three-batter minimum rule coming into effect in 2020. From Boston team in need of bullpen reinforcements, however, clearly the team sees value in exploring Osich’s potential. The 31-year-old does possess a mid-90’s fastball, and he has a solid 48.5% grounder rate over his 188 career MLB innings.
The waiver claim will shave a little bit of money off Chicago’s book, as Osich was projected to earn $1MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility.
Red Sox To Hire Dave Bush As Pitching Coach
The Red Sox are slated to name Dave Bush their new pitching coach. Bush, who has recently served as the club’s minor league pitching performance coordinator, was previously tabbed as the front runner for the pitching coach position in a Monday report from Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. Jared Carrabis of Barstool Sports (link) was first to report today that a final decision has been reached.
It appears that Bush beat out four other candidates for the post, among them former Reds manager Bryan Price (the names of three other candidates remain unreported).Bush’s familiarity with the organization likely worked in his favor, as the 39-year-old has been a coach in the Boston system since the beginning of the 2017 season. Previous pitching coach Dana LeVangie was reassigned to a pro scouting role with the organization earlier this month.
Of course, Bush is best known to readers as a longtime starter in the majors, logging 187 starts with the Blue Jays, Brewers, and Rangers in a nine-year big league career. That background will distinguish him from his predecessor, as LeVangie was noted for being a formidable scout despite having never pitched professionally.
AL Notes: Vogelbach, Rangers, Red Sox, A’s
With the 2019 MLB season officially wrapping up in a matter of hours, much of the league is fully turned toward the upcoming offseason. We’ll track some American League news here.
- Daniel Vogelbach started 49 games at first base for the Mariners in 2019, but that’s not likely to happen again, reports Corey Brock of the Athletic. Never regarded as an especially strong defender, some in the Mariners’ organization believe Vogelbach’s offensive downturn in the season’s second half (71 wRC+, compared to a 136 wRC+ in the first half) was related to his playing the field more than was ideal. With Vogelbach looking like a pure DH, the Mariners could again turn first base over to Austin Nola, a 29 year-old rookie who slashed .269/.342/.454 in 267 plate appearances down the stretch. Nola’s capable of bouncing all around the diamond, including catching, and is probably best served as a multi-positional piece. Fortunately, top first base prospect Evan White is on the doorstep of the majors and has a chance to win the job early, perhaps even out of spring training, Brock adds.
- The Red Sox could be facing payroll constraints and have a number of high-priced but effective starting pitchers. With that in mind, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News hears that the Rangers have internally kicked around the idea of pursuing one of those arms in trade. Texas is planning to increase payroll in 2020, after all. While much of that attention has focused on a potential pursuit of Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon in free agency, that flexibility can certainly be put to use in trade as well. Grant speculates that any of Chris Sale, David Price, or Nathan Eovaldi could be targets. Of course, given the caliber of players (particularly Sale and Price) and amount of money involved, any trade scenario would be extremely complex.
- Speaking of the Red Sox, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe takes a fascinating look at the career of Brian O’Halloran. Part of the four-person interim front office crew (alongside Raquel Ferreira, Eddie Romero and Zack Scott) who ran baseball operations between the departure of Dave Dombrowski and the hiring of chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, O’Halloran was promoted to general manager at the time of Bloom’s hiring. Speier’s piece, certainly worth reading in full, is rife with quotes from O’Halloran’s colleagues lauding his work ethic and aptitude and details his rise from volunteer to jack-of-all-trades within the organization.
- The A’s have an uncertain mix at second base, and three young players have a chance to stake their claim to the job next spring, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Sheldon Neuse, Franklin Barreto and Jorge Mateo should all have a shot at earning the job, assuming none are traded in the coming months. Jurickson Profar may, too, Slusser notes, although it’s possible he’ll end up elsewhere following a disappointing season with a projected $5.8MM arbitration salary. Slusser doesn’t foreclose the possibility of an outside addition, something explored by MLBTR’s Connor Byrne in his A’s offseason outlook, but it’s nonetheless notable to hear the organization continues to have faith in its young infield options.
MLBTR Poll: Value Of Potential J.D. Martinez Contract
The Red Sox just named a new chief baseball officer in Chaim Bloom, but he may already be facing the departure of one of the team’s best players. Designated hitter/outfielder J.D. Martinez will have a chance to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM left on his contract within five days of the conclusion of the World Series, which could end Tuesday. Red Sox chairman Tom Werner recently met with Martinez’s agent, Scott Boras, though owner John Henry said afterward the club’s still not sure whether JDM will exit his contract in the coming days.
On one hand, if Martinez goes back to free agency, it could give Boston the type of financial relief it’s seeking. The team’s seemingly hoping to get under the $208MM competitive-balance tax threshold for 2020, so erasing Martinez from its list of guarantees would be a boon in that regard. On the other, it’s hard to imagine a Red Sox team that just missed the playoffs improving without Martinez in the fold. The 32-year-old is only weeks removed from the end of another excellent offensive campaign, in which he slashed .304/.383/.557 (139 wRC+) with 36 home runs in 657 plate appearances. Martinez’s results this year weren’t as tremendous as they were from 2017-18 with the Tigers, Diamondbacks and Red Sox, though he was still unquestionably one of the premier hitters in the game. Statcast backed that up, crediting Martinez with a .402 expected weighted on-base average that tied him with Aaron Judge for ninth in baseball.
It’s pretty clear Martinez can still hit at an elite level. Still, it’s not clear whether he should opt out. He’d be leaving a substantial amount of money on the table in doing so, which could be especially risky for a 30-something whom the Red Sox would saddle with a qualifying offer. There was no QO hanging over Martinez’s head when he signed with Boston for five years and $110MM entering 2018, as he was part of a midseason trade during the prior campaign. He wouldn’t be so fortunate this time, and with teams seemingly veering away from giving up draft-pick compensation for aging free agents, Martinez may be in for a disappointing trip to the open market. That’s particularly true when considering his lack of defensive value, which could largely limit Martinez’s market to American League franchises that could use him as a DH.
It’s obvious Martinez is no slam dunk to opt out, but whether he does will be one of baseball’s most interesting stories in the coming days. If Martinez does leave behind what’s left of his Red Sox deal, though, how well do you think he’d do on his next pact?
(Poll link for app users)
Predict the value of a potential Martinez deal
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$60MM-$69MM 28% (2,588)
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Less than $60MM 26% (2,336)
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$70MM-79$MM 25% (2,267)
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$80MM or more 21% (1,926)
Total votes: 9,117
Red Sox Front Office Notes
The Red Sox introduced new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom yesterday, with Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald and Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe among those to cover the proceedings. With Brian O’Halloran rising to become GM, the top leadership is set. But how did the team settle on this arrangement and what does it mean for the rest of the baseball ops department?
President Sam Kennedy, chairman Tom Werner, and principal owner John Henry all addressed the matter, as did Bloom. The picture painted was of a hiring search that increasingly became a coronation.
While the Boston club started out looking at about twenty possible candidates to replace Dave Dombrowski, it recognized that many roads were leading to Bloom. It was a bit of a risk, Kennedy acknowledged, but the club focused on the key Rays executive even before sitting down with him.
There certainly was an interview process, with Bloom convincing the Red Sox of the merits of their intuitions. As Henry explains it, the team “felt he was the right candidate before we met with him” and left everyone with precisely that belief after a lengthy two-day process that involved a number of one-on-one meetings with key organization personnel.
Clearly, Bloom and upper management were on the same page — and not just on his general baseball acumen and lauded people skills. Both Kennedy and Bloom hit upon the same theme. The former says that Sox fans “want” and “deserve” a “sustainable baseball organization;” the latter cited a desire “to build as strong of an organization as possible in all aspects so that we can have sustained long-term success and compete for championships year in and year out.” While there’s no disputing the desirability of putting out a good product every year, Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports rightly points out that the concept of sustainability is en vogue leaguewide as something of a euphemism for profit-minded salary management. The Red Sox have not been shy about stating a desire to draw down their spending levels.
Bloom wasn’t brought in to sit atop the existing leadership so much as to integrate within and lead it. Henry said that his initial inclination to pursue a heavily experienced baseball ops manager began to shift as he watched the club’s four-person interim team operate. “I don’t think anybody thought we were going to be interviewing No. 2’s, or people that had not been at least a general manager,” said Henry. “But because they were so strong, we decided that we should have somebody who can compliment them and lead the department.”
The precise stucture is still being sorted. Brian O’Halloran has been elevated to the GM seat, so he’ll be Bloom’s number two. But the exact arrangement on the next tier isn’t clear. Raquel Ferreira, Eddie Romero, and Zack Scott joined O’Halloran in filling in bridging from Dombrowski to Bloom. They’ll all remain in key roles, though at least one could still be on the move, as Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports. That’s not due to any known acrimony, but a hiring opportunity. Henry did not specify which person was actively under consideration elsewhere, but did make clear one of those three is interviewing for a position with another club.
Latest On J.D. Martinez
Red Sox chairman Tom Werner met recently with agent Scott Boras regarding the contractual status of slugger J.D. Martinez, as Christopher Smith of MassLive.com was among those to report, but there’s still no clarity as to whether Martinez will remain with the Boston organization for 2020 and beyond. Martinez can opt out of the three years and $62.5MM left on his contract, with a decision due five days after the conclusion of the World Series.
That’s one of several opt-out calls that Boras will be making with his clients. There have been some indications over recent months that Martinez is at least pondering a return to the open market. When we polled MLBTR readers late in the season, it came down as a fairly close call, with just under 57% of respondents expecting Martinez to stay in Boston.
Martinez’s representative did not give the Red Sox a clear impression as to his current thinking, per owner John Henry. Neither did the team express any interest in hammering out a new deal that would override the in-or-out decision available to the veteran outfielder/DH. Given the club’s decision to pare back payroll, that’s not at all surprising. It’s quite possible that the club would rather Martinez walk, freeing up spending capacity to utilize in other, potentially more efficient manners. The ability to issue a qualifying offer and pick up draft compensation would also hold appeal.
That said, there’s no question the Red Sox are better with Martinez anchoring the lineup. The 32-year-old turned in a .304/.383/.557 batting line with 36 home runs in his second campaign in Boston. That wasn’t quite the monster showing he put up in 2017-18, but was still about forty percent better than the league-average hitter.
With just-inked chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom tasked with finding spending efficiencies to keep the BoSox competitive at a lower price point, it’d be surprising to see an expanded commitment to Martinez. But there was — and perhaps still is — at least a theoretical possibility of working out a new deal that spreads the cash owed over a lengthier stretch. But that would mean pushing deep into Martinez’s fourth decade, a decidedly risky proposition.
For much the same reason, it is far from clear that Martinez would benefit by opting out. As noted, his just-completed season was not especially excellent by his lofty standards. The qualifying offer would be a factor. The consensus among the MLBTR staff seems to be that Martinez might have trouble beating his remaining guarantee since there just isn’t a ton of obvious demand for players of his ilk on the marketplace. It’s possible to imagine him getting more money, but there’s certainly downside risk in an opt-out scenario.
It may well be that the sides will remain wedded for the time being. Boras already controls the market’s top names — including fellow opt-out candidate Stephen Strasburg — and would surely love the chance to dangle another top name when he’s making the rounds with ownership. But the super-agent has also shown ample respect (and disdain) for the power of the qualifying offer and knows the limits of earning power for aging, defensively limited hitters. In recent comments, Boras said he believes Martinez is capable of playing the corner outfield and certainly seemed to be launching his marketing campaign. But it’ll be a close decision and one that probably comes down to personal preference and risk tolerance on the part of Martinez.