Poll: Who Will Be The AL’s Wild Card Teams?
The Twins hold a 2.5-game lead over the Indians in the AL Central after today’s action, and in addition to fighting for the division crown, both clubs are desperately trying to avoid facing even more competition in the AL wild card hunt. Cleveland (74-51) is currently in possession of the top wild card spot, with the Rays (73-52) in the second slot, just a game behind.
Despite taking three of four games from the Astros, the Athletics are still 7.5 games behind Houston in the AL West, leaving the wild card as Oakland’s most realistic shot at a postseason berth. The A’s (71-53) are 1.5 games behind the Rays.
Had this poll been posted even a couple of days ago, the Red Sox would likely have been omitted, yet a five-game winning streak merits them a mention. Boston (67-59) is still 6.5 games behind Tampa Bay, and don’t have many head-to-head opportunities remaining against their division rivals, as the Sox and Rays only play four more times this season. The Red Sox do have a three-game set against Minnesota on September 3-5 at Fenway Park.
The Twins have six critical September games lined up against the Tribe, but beyond those two series, Minnesota has a clear advantage over Cleveland in terms of benefiting from their weak division. Twenty-six of the Twins’ remaining 38 games are against the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers, while the Indians only face the AL Central’s lesser lights 16 times in their final 37 games.
It all adds up to a wild final six weeks of action, particularly since injuries, roster shuffles, and players on both incredible hot streaks and cold streaks continue to change the narrative on a near-daily basis. In particularly, all three non-AL Central teams face looming questions about their pitching staffs. Can the A’s get their long-awaited influx of young pitching reinforcements once multiple arms return from the injured list? Can the Rays get by three-fourths of their regular rotation (Blake Snell, Yonny Chirinos, Tyler Glasnow) still hurt? Can the Red Sox mount a late-season comeback even as their own inconsistent rotation has suffered perhaps a critical blow?
Which two teams do you think will emerge from the fray to play in the one-game Wild Card playoff in October? (Poll link for app users)
Which two teams will win the AL wild cards?
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Rays/AL Central runner-up 41% (5,523)
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Athletics/AL Central runner-up 23% (3,072)
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Rays/Athletics 21% (2,845)
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Red Sox/AL Central runner-up 7% (877)
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Rays/Red Sox 5% (704)
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Athletics/Red Sox 3% (445)
Total votes: 13,466
Prospect Notes: Lux, Adell, Dalbec, Hall
As Gavin Lux continues to shred Triple-A pitching, it isn’t yet clear if the star prospect will make his Dodgers debut in 2019, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register writes. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman simply said “I don’t know” when asked about the possibility of a Lux promotion, as Friedman cited considerations like finding room for Lux on the 40-man roster while juggling the roster status of other players returning from the injured list. “I think more of our mental energy is being spent on how to configure our pitching staff (for the postseason) more than our position players that are doing pretty well,” Friedman said.
Lux entered today’s action hitting an unfathomable .415/.497/.768 over 191 plate appearances for Triple-A Oklahoma City (not to mention “only” a .313/.375/.521 slash line in 291 PA at Double-A before his latest promotion). While he has spent much of his pro career at shortstop, Lux has also seen a lot of action at second base, which would be his logical position both in the event of a September call-up and probably for the future, since Corey Seager isn’t leaving L.A. anytime soon. Then again, the Dodgers’ list of second base candidates is also long — Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez are expected to return from the IL on Tuesday, Jedd Gyorko and Kristopher Negron are utility options, and Max Muncy needs an everyday role if the Dodgers continue to deploy Cody Bellinger at first base. Interestingly, Friedman hinted that Lux could potentially join the Dodgers in a non-roster capacity in September, traveling with the team and learning the ropes of being a big leaguer without actually being on the active roster.
Here’s some more on some of the game’s stars of the future…
- There’s more clarity on a heralded youngster on Los Angeles’ other team, as the Angels currently aren’t planning to call Jo Adell up for his first taste of MLB action in September, Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times tweets. Prospect ranking outlets have Adell as a consensus top-four minor leaguer in the sport, though preseason ankle and hamstring injuries kept him from making his 2019 debut until May 24, and he has only a modest .233/.303/.317 slash line over 67 plate appearances in his first stint at Triple-A. As a result, the Angels look to give Adell more seasoning and some time at winter ball before looking to promote him to the majors. It has been widely speculated that Adell could be an everyday member of the Halos’ outfield as early as Opening Day 2020, as Kole Calhoun is a free agent this offseason.
- Could the Red Sox go with a youth movement at first base next season? Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe wonders if this could be the case, as since Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce will both be free agents, the Sox could turn to either Michael Chavis or top prospect Bobby Dalbec. Abraham notes that while Chavis has played a lot of second base this season, the keystone is “probably not a long-term position for him,” and thus Chavis could be used at first base, in the outfield, all over the diamond as a super-utility player, or potentially even as an offseason trade chip to add pitching. A fourth-rounder for Boston in the 2016 draft, Dalbec (ranked 92nd on Baseball America’s list of the game’s top 100 prospects) has steadily climbed through the farm system and is now hitting well over his first two weeks at Triple-A. Dalbec was originally drafted as a third baseman, but has increasingly seen more time at first base thanks to Rafael Devers establishing himself at the hot corner for the Sox. While Devers and Xander Bogaerts have the left side of Boston’s infield locked down for the foreseeable future, the right side is much more in flux, between Moreland and Pearce possibly leaving and the continued uncertainty about whether Dustin Pedroia will ever be able to play again. The Red Sox are likely to explore the market for first base and second base options this offseason, and Chavis will certainly be in the conversation at either position, Dalbec could also be an important piece of the team’s puzzle for 2020.
- Orioles left-handed pitching prospect D.L. Hall has been shut down for the season following a left lat strain, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports (Twitter link). While the injury isn’t considered serious, Hall won’t have enough time to get back before the Orioles’ A-ball affiliate in Frederick completes its season. The 21st overall pick of the 2017 draft, Hall has a 3.46 ERA and 12.9 K/9 over 80 2/3 innings for Frederick this season, though with a troubling 6.0 BB/9. ESPN’s Keith Law ranked Hall 35th in his midseason top-50 prospects list and Baseball America has Hall 38th in their top 100 list, while MLB.com (62) and Fangraphs (63) are just a touch less bullish on his promise.
Red Sox Place Chris Sale On 10-Day IL With Elbow Inflammation
6:37 pm: Ryan Brasier has been called up from Triple-A Pawtucket to fill Sale’s spot on the active roster, according to a report from the Boston Herald’s Steve Hewitt (link).
4:52 pm: It appears the issue may indeed be more serious than initially believed. Per President of Baseball Ops Dave Dombrowski (h/t to Bill Koch of the Providence Journal) the injury is “brand new” and the team will seek a second opinion from renowned surgeon Dr. James Andrews. No timetable has been set for Sale’s return.
4:34 pm: The Red Sox have placed lefty Chris Sale on the 10-Day IL with left elbow inflammation, the team reports.
The 30-year-old Sale’s performance has been much-maligned this season, though apart from his participation in the league-wide gopher-ball parade, his dominant stuff seems very well intact. Sale’s still setting down a league-best 13.32 per nine, walking a minuscule 2.26/9, and getting grounders at a league-average rate. His FIP is a full run lower than his 4.40 ERA, while his 2.94 xFIP (a metric that accounts for his career-worst 19.5% HR/FB) ranks second in the AL to Gerrit Cole.
In short, it’s still all there for Sale, provided the left-hander isn’t dealing with a more serious injury to his left elbow than initially believed. The Red Sox have fallen six and a half games behind Tampa in the team’s quest for a second wild card spot, so perhaps it’d be prudent to give the seven-time all-star all the rest he needs.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Rick Porcello
Relative to expectations, the 2019 season has been a major disappointment for the Red Sox. Many teams would be satisfied with Boston’s 64-59 record, but after winning 108 regular-season games and a World Series in 2018, what the club has done in the first four-plus months of this year looks rather underwhelming. The unspectacular performance of right-hander Rick Porcello is among the many reasons the Red Sox have fallen short of expectations this season.
Porcello wasn’t great last year during the Red Sox’s latest run to a championship, but he gave the team 33 starts and 191 1/3 innings of 4.28 ERA/4.01 FIP pitching. That was a valuable complementary effort to the better output Chris Sale and David Price put forth. This season, though, Porcello has logged a far worse 5.67 ERA/4.92 FIP across 133 1/3 frames. He ranks dead last among 69 qualified starters in ERA and sixth from the bottom in FIP. It’s an unexpected fall from grace for someone who won the American League Cy Young Award in 2016, when Porcello posted a 3.15 ERA/3.40 FIP in 223 innings.
The fact that the 30-year-old Porcello’s just a couple months from his first-ever trip to free agency makes his subpar season all the more inopportune. Luckily for Porcello, he has already received one significant payday in his career. Back in April 2015, just months after they acquired him in a trade with the Tigers that also included outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, the Red Sox signed Porcello to a four-year, $82.5MM extension. Porcello was a decent mid- to back-of-the-rotation innings eater at that point, which – Cy Young season aside – has largely been the case in Boston.
This year has been the worst as a member of the Red Sox for Porcello, who hasn’t just seen his run prevention numbers go backward. Porcello has also struck out just 7.22 batters per nine, which is down from a personal-best 8.94 a year ago and sits 14th from the bottom among qualified starters. Meanwhile, although Porcello’s 2.43 walks per nine certainly isn’t bad, it’s the highest of his career. His K/BB ratio (2.97) is superior to just 24 other starters’. Porcello’s groundball rate (38.9) stands as a career worst, too, and pales in comparison to the 50 percent-plus marks he consistently recorded as a Tiger.
Beyond those numbers, Statcast doesn’t think much of what Porcello has done this season. It ranks him toward the bottom of the majors in expected slugging percentage against (.475; 15th percentile), fastball velocity (91.1 mph; 16th percentile), expected weighted on-base average (.332, compared to a .346 wOBA; 32nd percentile), expected batting average (.256; 36th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (46th percentile).
It’s clear there hasn’t been a lot to like this season about Porcello, who will nonetheless try to find a sizable deal in free agency a few months from now. He’ll definitely fall behind Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Dallas Keuchel (perhaps among others) in the open market pecking order, while there are several other starters in a similar class to Porcello who could negatively affect his earning power. A short-term contract (one or two years) seems like a strong possibility for Porcello, who’s likely to struggle to reach eight figures on his next pact. That obviously isn’t what Porcello had in mind when he earned the AL’s top pitcher honors just three years ago.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Latest On Nathan Eovaldi
WEDNESDAY: Not so fast. Eovaldi came out of Boston’s bullpen Tuesday. Having only thrown six pitches, he will be available today, but will not get the start, Cora told reporters including Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). Brian Johnson will instead take the ball to open today’s contest. Where things go from this point remains to be seen.
TUESDAY: After a short run as a reliever, the Red Sox are returning right-hander Nathan Eovaldi to a starting role. Eovaldi will start Wednesday and then spend the rest of the season in the Red Sox’s rotation, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports. He’ll only throw around 55 pitches Wednesday, according to manager Alex Cora (via Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe).
Eovaldi has been a starter for almost all of his career, but after he sat out from late April toward the end of July while recovering from elbow surgery, reliever-needy Boston planned to give him a shot as its closer. The decision came in part because the Red Sox weren’t sure if Eovaldi would have the time to build his arm up enough to go back to his typical job as a starter. Eovaldi did not acquit himself well out of the Red Sox’s bullpen, though, as he has allowed eight earned runs in 10 2/3 innings since coming off the injured list. The 29-year-old didn’t even rack up a save attempt, with the club instead using Brandon Workman as its closer.
The hard-throwing Eovaldi also had a tough time as a starter this year before going under the knife, which isn’t what the Red Sox envisioned when they splurged on him last winter. After coming over in a midsummer trade with the Rays and then establishing himself as one of the Red Sox’s many playoff heroes during their championship run in 2018, they re-signed him to a four-year, $67.5MM contract in free agency. Eovaldi has since logged a 6.25 ERA/5.74 FIP with 8.81 K/9 and 4.26 BB/9 across 31 2/3 innings. He’s one of many Boston pitchers who have gone through less-than-ideal seasons.
Thanks largely to the struggles of their pitching staff, the Red Sox are on track to begin their offseason far earlier than expected this year. The club’s 62-59, placing it a whopping 17 1/2 games behind the Yankees in the American League East and 8 1/2 back of a wild-card spot. Realistically, it’s time to start looking ahead to 2020, when Eovaldi, Chris Sale, the currently injured David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez figure to comprise 80 percent of the team’s rotation.
Red Sox Move Andrew Cashner To Bullpen
Manager Alex Cora says that the Red Sox will move righty Andrew Cashner into a relief role, as Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to cover (Twitter links). For the time being, at least, the club will go with a four-man rotation.
Cashner is said to have accepted the demotion — not that he really had any choice in the matter. And it’d be hard to argue he deserves otherwise. In six outings since arriving via trade, Cashner carries a brutal 8.01 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9 over 30 1/3 innings.
This move comes as the Red Sox continue to sink in the Wild Card standings. With a 7.5-game deficit entering play today, and no end in sight to the veteran hurler’s struggles, the club can ill afford to keep running him out there every fifth game.
There are also some contractual elements at play here, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently explained. Cashner had an outside shot at triggering a vesting option provision had he made all of his remaining potential starts (and gone deep into every one of them). His most recent start, which lasted only 1 2/3 innings, all but eliminated that possibility. Today’s news buries it once and for all.
It’s unlikely the Boston organization really considered that factor in making today’s move, since it remained quite unlikely that Cashner would’ve made the innings tally required to turn the $10MM club option into a guaranteed 2020 salary. It was natural to bump Cashner from the rotation with so many upcoming off days. Indeed, Cora hinted that the club may at times even try to skip another starter — almost certainly, the scuffling Rick Porcello — over the next six weeks.
Now that Cashner is all but assured to return to the open market at season’s end, it raises the stakes for him over the stretch run. It will certainly be interesting to see whether he can change his fortunes in a relief role.
East Notes: Red Sox, Mets, Diaz, Rays, Jays
The Red Sox are going to have to “be creative” in the near future when it comes to drawing up a plan for their floundering rotation, manager Alex Cora said Sunday (via Chad Jennings of The Athletic; subscription required). The club has six days off in the next three weeks, which will enable it to skip certain starters, but there’s no denying Boston’s in trouble. The reigning world champions are what could be an insurmountable 7 1/2 games back of an American League wild-card spot, in part because their rotation has endured a Murphy’s Law year. Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez have arguably been the Red Sox’s best starters, but the former hasn’t been the dominant ace we’ve grown accustomed to watching, and the latter has been more good than great. Meantime, David Price is on the injured list (and went through a horrid stretch before hitting the shelf Aug. 8), former Cy Young winner Rick Porcello has been horrid, and the pre-trade deadline acquisition of Andrew Cashner has blown up in the team’s face.
Here’s more from the East Coast…
- Despite his ongoing struggles, the sizzling Mets aren’t considering demoting reliever Edwin Diaz to the minors, according to Andy Martino of SNY. The hyped offseason acquisition has surrendered at least one earned run in five of his past six outings, contributing to a horrendous 5.60 ERA in 45 innings on the season. That’s almost four runs higher than the 1.96 ERA the hard-throwing Diaz posted in his final season as a Mariner last year. Most of Diaz’s other numbers have also gone way downhill, though he has still struck out 14.6 batters per nine.
- The sprained right hand Rays outfielder Tommy Pham is “something he’s going to have to manage” through the end of the season, skipper Kevin Cash said Sunday (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). The Rays don’t expect Pham to land on the injured list, but it seems the sprain has negatively affected his production. He’s just 5 for 30 since suffering the injury, though Pham’s still batting a strong .266/.365/.440 with 16 home runs and 13 steals in 485 plate appearances on the season.
- Blue Jays executive vice president, business operations Andrew Miller has joined the NFL’s Minnesota Vikings as their chief operating officer, Adam Schefter of ESPN tweets. Miller had been with the Blue Jays since 2016. His familiarity with Jays president of baseball operations Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins dates back to their time in Cleveland’s front office. For more on the Vikings and the NFL, visit ProFootballRumors.com.
2020 Vesting Options Update
With over two-thirds of the 2019 season in the books, let’s check in to see how seven players are progressing towards possible vesting options in their contracts. For those unfamiliar with the term, a vesting option is an agreed-upon threshold within a player’s contract (usually based on health and/or playing time) that, if achieved, allows the player to alter the terms of the contract for the next season, and perhaps beyond in some cases.
Some vesting options aren’t reported, so it could be that more players beyond this septet could also be playing towards gaining more guaranteed money or contractual freedom for the 2020 season. For now, let’s examine just these seven names…
Yonder Alonso, Rockies: Under the terms of the two-year, $16MM deal Alonso signed with the Indians in the 2017-18 offseason, his $9MM club option (with a $1MM buyout) for 2020 becomes guaranteed if the first baseman first passes a physical, and then hit plate-appearance benchmarks. Unfortunately for Alonso, he has only 287 PA this season, so he’s on pace to fall well short of reaching either 550 PA in 2019 or 1100 total PA in 2018-19 — either of which would’ve caused his option to vest.
Andrew Cashner, Red Sox: Having struggled through six starts since coming to Boston in a trade from the Orioles, the Sox have a legitimate performance-related reason for moving Cashner out of their rotation. There would also be a financial motive involved, as Cashner’s $10MM club option for 2020 would become guaranteed if he amasses 340 total innings in 2018-19. After today’s abbreviated outing against the Angels, Cashner now has 279 2/3 IP over the last two seasons, putting him within distant range of causing his option to vest if he keeps receiving starts. (Incidentally, the option could also vest into a player option if Cashner hits the 360-inning threshold.)
Sean Doolittle, Nationals: The closer finished his league-high 47th game of the season today, giving him 82 games finished since the start of the 2018 season. Should Doolittle reach 100 games finished, the Nationals’ $6.5MM club option ($500K buyout) on Doolittle for 2020 would vest into a mutual option, giving him the opportunity to opt out of his contract and enter into free agency. This is definitely one to watch down the stretch, since with the Nats in a postseason race and the rest of their bullpen struggling, D.C. won’t hesitate to use their closer for every save situation possible. Manager Davey Martinez has used Doolittle in a traditional late-game role, so shifting him into high-leverage situations outside of the ninth inning to cut down on his games-finished numbers would be a risky (and controversial) tactic, to say the least.
Chris Iannetta, Rockies: With 110 starts at catcher since the beginning of the 2018 season, Iannetta won’t reach the 220 catching starts he needed to convert the Rockies’ $4.25MM club option on his services for 2020 into a guarantee.
Wade LeBlanc, Mariners: The unique extension signed by LeBlanc in July 2018 carried three $5MM club option years for 2020-22 that can all vest into guarantees. That 2020 option turns into guaranteed money if LeBlanc throws 160 innings in 2019 and doesn’t have a left arm injury at season’s end. A month-long IL stint due to an oblique strain earlier this season almost certainly ended LeBlanc’s chance at the 160-inning plateau, as he has only 98 IP thus far. While he’s still eating a good share of innings as a “bulk pitcher” behind an opener in most outings, it seems likely that LeBlanc won’t reach his vesting threshold.
Brandon Morrow, Cubs: Morrow’s two-year, $21MM deal carried a 2020 vesting option worth $12MM, or a $3MM buyout. It wasn’t actually known what the terms were of this option, though since injuries have kept Morrow from pitching since July 15, 2018, it’s safe to assume the option won’t vest, and Morrow will be a free agent this winter.
Oliver Perez, Indians: The veteran southpaw appeared in his 49th game of the season today, so barring injury, he’s a lock to hit the 55 appearances required to guarantee his $2.75MM club option for 2020. He also seems like a pretty safe bet to lock in even more money, as that option will be guaranteed at $3MM if Perez pitches in 60 games. The Tribe likely won’t at all mind having Perez back for another season, as the reliever continues to dominate left-handed batters.
Red Sox Select Chris Owings
The Red Sox announced they have the selected the contract of utilityman Chris Owings. First baseman Steve Pearce was transferred to the 60-day injured list to create 40-man roster space. Right-hander Hector Velázquez was optioned to Triple-A Pawtucket in a corresponding active roster move.
Owings, who’s immediately getting a chance to start at second base and lead off for Boston in this afternoon’s game against the Angels, played his way back to the big leagues with a monster showing in Triple-A. The 27 year-old slashed .325/.385/.595 over 183 plate appearances with Pawtucket, blasting 11 home runs along the way. He also struck out in 27.3% of his Triple-A plate appearances, though, and he’s never been much of a power threat before his barrage in the International League. Clearly, the introduction of the MLB ball to Triple-A has inflated Owings’ power output, but he’ll obviously have the luxury of hitting with the same ball at the game’s highest level.
Even still, it’s tough to imagine Owings emerging as a major offensive threat in Boston. The 27 year-old was a below-average hitter every year with the Diamondbacks between 2014 and 2018, and he struggled mightily after signing a one-year contract this offseason with the Royals. Owings slashed .133/.193/.222 with a 37.9% strikeout rate over 145 plate appearances before being released June 4. Only Zack Cozart (-13 wRC+) has put up a worse offensive performance than Owings (6 wRC+) among players with at least 100 plate appearances this year.
Even if he’s not much of a threat in the box, though, Owings is a plus baserunner with ample experience up-the-middle defensively. Defensive metrics haven’t traditionally loved him at shortstop, but he’s rated well at the keystone, where he seems likely to get the most work in Boston. He also transitioned well to center field in Arizona, giving the Red Sox some additional outfield depth on hand, even if it’s tough to imagine him spending much time on the grass in Fenway.
The IL transfer for Pearce is entirely procedural. He hit the 10-day IL June 1 with a lower back strain, so he’s already exceeded the 60-day minimum on the shelf. We last heard about Pearce a month ago, when the organization confirmed he was “nowhere close” to returning. It’s been a lost season for the reigning World Series MVP, who hit just .180/.245/.258 before hitting the shelf for the long haul.
Velázquez has logged 48 big league innings in 2019 as a swingman. He’ll be optioned for the second time this year, reflecting his subpar MLB results. Velázquez has worked to a 5.81 ERA with mediocre strikeout (21.6%) and walk (10.6%) rates.
MLBTR Poll: J.D. Martinez’s Opt-Out Clause
The offseason could come sooner than expected for the reigning World Series champion Red Sox, whose playoff chances have dwindled in the year’s second half. Losers of nine of their past 11, the Red Sox sit a stunning 16 games behind the Yankees in the AL East and 5 1/2 back of a wild-card spot. The club has already lost more games in 2019 (56) than it did last regular season (54), and it still has 45 games to go.
Boston’s fall certainly hasn’t been the fault of designated hitter J.D. Martinez, who has been on another of his signature offensive rampages of late. After four straight multi-hit games, his line has climbed to .304/.379/.547 – one of its highest points of the season. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, these may be the final weeks with the club for Martinez. He’ll dive back into free agency if he opts out of his contract after the season, though he’s far from a lock to abandon his deal.
Returning to the open market – where the former Astro, Tiger and Diamondback joined the Red Sox on a five-year, $110MM contract back in February 2018 – would mean leaving a substantial amount of money on the table. However, while Martinez will still have another three years and $62.5MM left when this season concludes, he’s not ruling out another stab at free agency. Martinez said last month he plans to leave his future in the hands of famed agent Scott Boras.
Based on his production, Martinez has a case for more money than he stands to earn on his current deal. Martinez was one of the game’s greatest hitters in the handful of years preceding his Boston deal, and that hasn’t changed. Although Martinez’s numbers have markedly fallen off compared to where they were from 2017-18, that’s more a compliment to his output then than an indictment on what he has done this year. With 25 home runs in 479 plate appearances, Martinez is on pace for his third straight year with at least 30 HRs. His wRC+ (136) is tied with Anthony Rizzo and Josh Bell for 19th among qualified hitters, and his .408 expected weighted on-base average ranks quite a bit higher. Only fellow offensive luminaries Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Nelson Cruz, Christian Yelich, Anthony Rendon, Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge rank above Martinez in that department.
It’s fair to say Martinez remains an absolute force at the plate, then, and it would surely help his cause that he’d be a big fish in a fairly small free-agent pond. Aside from Rendon, a fellow Boras client and the lone pending free-agent position player who looks like a shoo-in for a $100MM-plus contract, Martinez would be the second-most appealing hitter available. Still, the soon-to-be 32-year-old and Boras might be leery of taking advantage of his opt-out. Free agency has been tough on even highly decorated 30-somethings in recent years, especially those who come with qualifying offers attached (just ask Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel).
Martinez didn’t receive a QO in his previous trip to free agency because it came after a midseason trade, but the Red Sox would no doubt saddle him with one during the upcoming winter. Plus, although he remains among the majors’ most formidable hitters, that’s essentially where all of Martinez’s on-field value comes from. Formerly a regular in the outfield, he’s easily on pace for his second straight season of fewer than 500 innings in the grass. That doesn’t mean Martinez’s offense won’t continue to make him immensely valuable going forward – former Red Sox DH David Ortiz and the aforementioned Cruz are two examples of offense-only players who’ve been tremendous even in the twilight of their careers. The lack of a real position still won’t do Martinez’s market any favors, though, especially considering there aren’t any near-term plans for the National League to implement the DH.
There’s no easy answer here for the Martinez-Boras tandem, who can either choose the bird-in-hand route or take a gamble on his bat leading him to even more cash than he’s due on his present pact. Without question, it’ll be one of the most interesting early offseason situations to watch. As of now, how do you expect it to play out?
(Poll link for app users)
What do you expect J.D. Martinez to do after the season?
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Keep his current deal 57% (4,166)
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Opt out 43% (3,148)
Total votes: 7,314