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12 Players Decline Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 13 qualified free agents have declined the QO, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The exception was Nick Martinez, who accepted the $21.05MM offer from the Reds over the weekend.

The players who rejected the offer:

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

Red Sox’ Cooper Criswell Eligible For Fourth Option Year

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The Red Sox’ pitching depth has more flexibility than might’ve been otherwise apparent at first glance. Right-hander Cooper Criswell exhausted his third and typically final option year in 2024, but Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports that the Red Sox will actually hold a fourth option year on Criswell.

It’s standard in Major League Baseball for players to have three “option” years where they can be freely sent down to a minor league affiliate without first clearing waivers. An “option year” is used when any player on the 40-man roster is optioned to the minors and spends at least 20 days there. This applies even to players who’ve yet to make their big league debut but are optioned to a minor league affiliate out of spring training. However, the league grants a fourth option year for players who exhaust their three original three option years in fewer than five professional seasons (defined as 90-plus days on a major league or minor league active roster/injured list).

In the case of Criswell, he’s a 2018 draftee of the Angels who’s appeared in exactly five full seasons: 2019 and 2021-24. (He wasn’t on the roster for the abbreviated 2020 campaign.) The Halos originally selected him to the 40-man roster in 2021, and he was optioned in each of the three subsequent seasons throughout the course of stints with the Halos, Rays and Red Sox.

For the Red Sox, it’s a nice boon. Criswell goes from a back-end starter/swingman who’d have to be rostered on Opening Day to a valuable fifth/sixth starter who can be shuttled between their Triple-A affiliate in nearby Worcester and the major league roster. Criswell, who signed a big league deal with the Sox after being non-tendered by the Rays last winter, clearly pitched his way into the club’s plans with 99 1/3 innings of 4.08 ERA ball between the rotation and bullpen. He fanned a below-average 17.2% of opponents against a strong 7.3% walk rate and impressive 50.3% ground-ball rate.

Right now, the locks in the Boston rotation are Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello. Veteran Lucas Giolito, once healthy, will eventually join them. Criswell, Quinn Priester and Richard Fitts are among the other options near the back of the rotation.

The Sox figure to add at least one starting pitcher via free agency and/or trade. They’ve been linked to the top names on the market already and have at least signaled a willingness to act more aggressively than in recent offseasons. Criswell’s extra option year gives them some flexibility and will help the team preserve depth if and when additional rotation arms are added in the weeks and months ahead.

Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Red Sox Among Teams Interested In Willy Adames

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Willy Adames is drawing “very broad” interest in free agency, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) naming the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, and Red Sox as clubs looking at the shortstop.  The Dodgers, Giants, and Yankees are also mentioned in a somewhat more speculative fashion, under the general premise that teams with infield needs — rather than specific shortstop needs — have Adames on their radar.

Reports surfaced a couple of weeks ago that Adames was open to moving off shortstop if the situation warranted, thus further opening up his market of potential suitors.  Looking at Morosi’s list, the Braves would seemingly be the only one of the four clubs that would be looking at Adames as a shortstop, since Atlanta has a clear need at the position.

Orlando Arcia struggled through a very rough year at the plate in 2024, and replacing Arcia with Adames at shortstop would provide a huge upgrade to the Braves’ lineup.  Signing Adames would represent a new frontier for Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, as Marcell Ozuna’s four-year, $65MM deal from the 2020-21 offseason is the largest free agent contract Anthopoulos has handed out over his seven-plus years running the Braves’ front office.

Adames’ expected contract would more than double Ozuna’s deal.  MLBTR predicted a six-year, $160MM contract for Adames.  Adding somewhere in the range of $26.6MM in average annual value onto the Braves’ books would continue to boost a payroll that has plenty of long-term commitments in place, though Ozuna and Raisel Iglesias are both free agents after the 2025 season, and technically Chris Sale could be as well if Atlanta doesn’t exercise a club option on his services for 2026.

Signing with Boston would open up several defensive possibilities for Adames.  Trevor Story is the incumbent shortstop and still an excellent defender, even if injuries have limited Story’s offense and playing time altogether over his three seasons with the Red Sox.  Story is still owed $77.5MM through the 2027 season, and while he can opt out of his contract after the 2025 campaign, an opt-out doesn’t seem at all likely given the veteran infielder’s last few years.

The Sox used Story at second base in 2022 when Xander Bogaerts was still on the team, so Story could shift over to the keystone again to accommodate Adames.  Or, perhaps the simplest answer is just to install Adames as the regular second baseman, hopefully finally ending the revolving door that has been Boston’s second base position in recent years.

Star prospects Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell could slot into the infield mix as early as 2025 if Campbell isn’t utilized as an outfielder.  Once the Sox see what they have in the youngsters and need to find playing time, the Red Sox could them perhaps use Adames as a third baseman, bumping Rafael Devers into a first base or DH role.  There are plenty of moving parts defensively, yet Adames would provide a clear boost to a lineup in sore need of a big right-handed bat.

Bo Bichette is coming off a miserable 2024 season, yet he remains Toronto’s everyday shortstop heading into his final year of team control.  With Bichette in the fold, the Jays could use Adames at second or (more likely) third base, as the Blue Jays’ collective of in-house young infielders are almost all better suited defensively to the keystone than the hot corner.

If Bichette was to leave in free agency next winter, Toronto could explore simply moving Adames back to shortstop, thus addressing a major position in relatively easy fashion.  Second and third base could then be occupied on a more permanent basis by one of the Blue Jays’ incumbent infielders, depending on which stood out during the 2025 season.  Again, the offensive upgrade is obvious, since Adames, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and what the Jays hope will be a resurgent Bichette form a powerful lineup core on paper.

It is worth mentioning that Adames has played virtually his entire MLB career at the shortstop position, and he hasn’t played anywhere else on the diamond since making 10 appearances as a second baseman during his 2018 rookie season with the Rays.  Moving to third base would therefore represent an entirely new challenge for the 29-year-old, which provides an interesting backdrop to the Astros’ pursuit.

Since Jeremy Pena and Jose Altuve have the middle infield positions covered, Houston would therefore be looking at Adames as a third baseman if Alex Bregman signed elsewhere.  Astros GM Dana Brown has described re-signing Bregman as “our biggest priority,” so while Bregman’s departure is far from a foregone conclusion, the Astros surely have some backup plans in mind if their longtime third baseman did leave.

Replacing Bregman with another high-priced free agent infielder would count as a bit of a surprise, given how Brown has said his club “may have to get a little bit creative” in managing the payroll this winter.  The same applies to the Blue Jays, as Toronto already posted a team-record high payroll in 2024 with only a last-place finish in the AL East to show for it.  The Red Sox have plenty of payroll room open, and while the team has shied away from major free agents in the last few years, Boston has already been linked to a wide range of top names (Juan Soto, Max Fried, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Snell), so the Sox seem to be signaling that they are ready to again shop in the high-rent district.

Since Adames is sure to reject the Brewers’ qualifying offer, a new team would face some sort of penalty for signing him.  The Braves and Astros both exceeded the luxury tax in 2024, and thus signing Adames or any qualified free agent would cost the club $1MM in international bonus pool money, plus their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft.  It is a steep penalty to pay, though the draft hit could be slightly lessened in the form of a compensatory pick after the fourth round if either the teams’ own qualified free agents (Houston’s Bregman, Atlanta’s Fried) signed elsewhere.

The Blue Jays (just barely) and Red Sox stayed under the tax threshold this season, so both would have to give up $500K of international bonus pool money as well as their second-highest 2025 draft selection.  The Sox also have a qualified free agent of their own in Nick Pivetta, and if Pivetta departed, Boston’s compensatory pick could come before the start of the third draft round.

Red Sox Interested In Blake Snell

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Upgrading the rotation is a known goal for the Red Sox this winter, with such trade targets and free agents as Garrett Crochet, Max Fried, and old friend Nathan Eovaldi already reportedly on Boston’s radar in the offseason’s early stages.  Blake Snell is another prominent name also under consideration, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan (in a recent appearance on the Baseball Bar-B-Cast) said the Sox “are talking with” the two-time Cy Young Award winner.

The Red Sox were somewhat lightly linked to Snell’s market when he was a free agent last year, as while reports suggested the Sox had some level of interest in the left-hander, other pitchers like Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery were ahead of Snell on Boston’s wish list.  As it turned out, the Sox didn’t end up landing any of the top-tier arms available on the market, even though Snell and Montgomery were both available deep into Spring Training, and Montgomery didn’t end up signing with the Diamondbacks until Opening Day.

At this point in the winter calendar, it is fair to assume the Red Sox are “in on” several pitchers to one degree or another, so it isn’t any surprise that they’ve reached out to Snell out of due diligence alone.  That said, the two parties are a natural fit, which is likely why MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco each predicted Snell would indeed sign with Boston as part of our site’s top 50 free agent projections (Snell ranks fourth on our list, and is predicted to land a five-year, $160MM contract).

The Red Sox have largely eschewed making splashy signings in recent years, as the club has been more focused on reloading the minor league system and finding value signings than making a truly aggressive bid to contend.  After three straight non-winning seasons, patience is running thin within the fanbase, and there is some increased pressure on the Sox front office to make a big-budget signing as a clear marker that the club wants to win.  Landing a top pitcher like Snell would certainly count in this category, and give the Sox the ace-level pitcher the rotation so clearly needs.

Snell’s extended stay in free agency ended last winter when he joined the Giants in mid-March, and the abbreviated nature of his Spring Training prep initially seemed to be leading to a disastrous season.  The left-hander’s first three months in San Francisco resulted in two injured-list stints and a 9.51 ERA over six starts and 23 2/3 innings, and yet as has so often been the case in Snell’s career, he only got better as the season developed.  In the most extreme example yet of Snell’s second-half surges, he had a phenomenal 1.23 ERA over his final 14 starts and 80 1/3 innings, once again re-establishing himself as one of baseball’s best pitchers.  As such, Snell chose to exercise the opt-out clause in his two-year, $62MM deal with San Francisco, foregoing the $30MM owed to him in 2025 in order to chase a pricier long-term commitment.

This isn’t to say that some of the questions that clouded Snell’s market last winter have entirely disappeared.  He was again hampered by injuries, and is now another year old, as he’ll turn 32 in December.  However, one key difference between Snell’s free agent status from last year to this year is that he no longer has a qualifying offer attached to his services.  Snell rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer last winter, and since the QO can only be issued to a player once in his career, a team is free to sign Snell without having to surrender any compensation.

Boston would have to give up $500K in international bonus pool money as well as its second-highest pick in next year’s draft in order to sign a qualified free agent.  It can be argued that Snell’s lack of QO status is a bigger deal for luxury tax payors, as since they face a stiffer penalty for signing one of the 13 free agents who were issued qualifying offers this offseason, a pitcher like Snell might have more appeal than a qualified pitcher like Fried or Corbin Burnes.

Still, the Red Sox would certainly love to avoid losing a draft pick if they can help it, plus the Sox could also be considering Snell and a qualified free agent.  For instance, the Sox are interested in Juan Soto and Teoscar Hernandez among the position player class, in addition to their quest for rotation help.  Nick Pivetta also appears likely to reject Boston’s qualifying offer, so the Sox would get a compensatory pick back if Pivetta signed elsewhere.

Juan Soto Rumors: Red Sox, Yankees, Jays, Dodgers

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Juan Soto’s free agency will be the primary narrative this offseason until he chooses his next landing spot, though there’s no indication that things are close. The 26-year-old superstar began meeting with teams this week but is still in the early stages of the process. For instance, Sean McAdam of MassLive.com reports that while the Red Sox feel their three-hour meeting with Soto and agent Scott Boras was “productive,” it was more introductory and informative than anything else. The two sides did not discuss years and dollars; the Sox pitched Soto on their plans for the future, their upcoming wave of high-end prospects and other aspects of the organization, while Soto sought to learn about their player evaluation methods, Fenway Park’s facilities, etc. It’s common for early meetings of this nature for top-end free agents to be introductory in nature, so this isn’t necessarily unique to Soto.

The Red Sox haven’t been involved in the deep waters of free agency in recent offseasons. Trevor Story is the lone nine-figure expenditure for the Sox in the past five years. Since signing David Price in 2015, the Red Sox have only gone beyond two years on a free agent four times (Story, J.D. Martinez, Masataka Yoshida and Nathan Eovaldi). Given that, it’s not surprising to see one of the elements Soto hoped to gauge (per McAdam) was the team’s “commitment to winning.”

That said, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets that the Red Sox are approaching their pursuit of Soto with a level of “intent” that we’ve not seen from Boston “in some time.” Intent alone won’t win the bidding, of course, but the Sox have not been characterized as major players for top-end free agents in recent years. All indications this offseason seem to signal a shift in direction.

The incumbent Yankees and crosstown Mets are still perceived by many as the favorites to win the Soto bidding, once formal offers begin rolling in. To this point, it doesn’t seem the process has reached that point. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Yankees are comfortable going to 13 years and topping Aaron Judge’s $40MM annual salary in order to keep Soto, placing their baseline comfort level somewhere in the $520MM range overall. Most expectations are that Soto will exceed that mark by a fair margin, but it’s a notable starting point all the same.

Meanwhile, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet takes a look at at the Blue Jays’ interest in Soto, noting that as was the case with Shohei Ohtani last offseason, ownership views him as an exception to any other offseason budgetary plans. Toronto’s pursuit of Soto is not an indication that if the Jays miss out on the star slugger, they’ll pivot and spend $500-700MM elsewhere in free agency. Within his previously referenced column, Heyman doubles down on prior reporting that the Blue Jays plan to be aggressive in their pursuit of Soto.

That’s not necessarily the case with all of his expected suitors. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this week that the Dodgers “won’t chase after Soto,” having already committed to nine more years of Ohtani and thus potentially restricting them in the event that Soto eventually needs to spend more time at designated hitter. They’ll be opportunistic and perhaps jump into the fray if the market doesn’t develop as Soto hopes, though that seems unlikely, given the robust demand for his services and a potential Bronx-versus-Queens bidding war.

Up until last winter, with Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, that was generally how Los Angeles had approached the market under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. Though they regularly fielded one of the game’s largest payrolls and most star-studded rosters, most of the Dodgers’ star power over the years was acquired on the trade market (e.g. Mookie Betts, Tyler Glasnow) or developed in-house (e.g. Will Smith, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager prior to his free agent departure). Freddie Freeman was the lone big-ticket free agent acquisition, and he came on board with a deferral-laden deal after an extended stay on the open market. That scenario almost certainly won’t happen with Soto.

As it stands, there’s still no expected timetable for when Soto might reach a decision or when offers might be presented in earnest. The fact that the Red Sox didn’t even delve into numbers speaks to the current preliminary stage of the bidding process. It’s always possible Soto could decide he wants to accelerate the process and have a team by the end of the month, but a decision at some point in December feels likelier.

Red Sox Sign Justin Wilson

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The Red Sox announced they’ve added lefty reliever Justin Wilson on a one-year contract. Boston had an opening on the 40-man roster, which is now at capacity. Wilson, an ACES client, is reportedly guaranteed $2.25MM on a deal that offers another $750K in incentives. He’d earn $150K apiece for reaching 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 appearances.

Wilson, 37, has a lengthy track record in the majors but has struggled with injuries in recent seasons. He returned from Tommy John surgery last year to pitch 46 2/3 innings for Cincinnati but was tagged for an unsightly 5.59 earned run average in that time. A good portion of those struggles were due to spikes in his average on balls in play and home run rate, the latter of which was directly influenced by the hitter-friendly nature of his home park in Cincinnati. Seven of the ten homers surrendered by Wilson last year came at Great American Ball Park, which has been far and away MLB’s most homer-friendly setting over the past three seasons, per Statcast’s Park Factors. (Boston’s Fenway Park is right in the middle of the pack at No. 16.)

Wilson’s run-prevention numbers were uninspiring, but his rate stats were far more encouraging. Both his 24.4% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate were better than league average. The 95.5 mph he averaged on his four-seamer was the second-best mark of his career, trailing only his 95.9 mph average in 2017. The 92.3 mph he averaged on his cutter was a career-high. Metrics like xFIP (3.99) and SIERA (3.41), which normalize a pitcher’s homer-to-flyball rate, both feel Wilson is a strong bet to rebound in 2025 if he can continue at his 2024 pace.

From 2015-20, Wilson was one of the most consistently effective lefties in the game. He appeared in 344 games between the Yankees, Tigers, Cubs and Mets during that span, totaling 291 innings of 3.41 ERA ball with a 28.2% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate. His command looked far better than usual in his ’24 showing with the Reds, and his ability to miss bats didn’t seem overly compromised. The veteran Wilson is no stranger to late-inning work, having picked up 142 holds and 20 saves in his 12 major league seasons.

Entering the offseason, Brennan Bernardino was the only lefty reliever who could be comfortably projected for Boston’s 2025 bullpen. Fellow southpaws Bailey Horn, Cam Booser and Chris Murphy are on the 40-man roster as well. However, Murphy had Tommy John surgery last year and won’t be ready for Opening Day. Horn and Booser come with little to no big league experience of which to speak. Wilson will provide skipper Alex Cora with a seasoned veteran who’s still capable of missing bats and, if he can get back to pre-surgery levels of run prevention, could eventually emerge as a viable leverage option at a bargain price point.

Robert Murray of FanSided was first to report that Wilson and the Red Sox had an agreement. Rob Bradford of WEEI first reported it was a one-year major league deal with a $2.25MM base salary and $750K in incentives. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the specific incentive structure.

Red Sox To Name Chris Holt Bullpen Coach

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Former Orioles pitching director Chris Holt has reached an agreement to become the Red Sox’ new bullpen coach, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Holt has already received a formal offer, and the hiring could become official next week, per Kubatko.

Holt departed Baltimore’s staff at the end of the season as the organization underwent a coaching overhaul in the wake of a limp to the finish line and a second consecutive quick postseason exit. He was one of several coaches/instructors to be replaced, joining hitting coaches Ryan Fuller and Matt Borgschulte.

Baltimore general manager Mike Elias was familiar with Holt from the pair’s time together in the Astros organization. He hired Holt away as the Orioles’ new minor league pitching coordinator in 2019. Holt rose to the title of major league pitching coach and was eventually bumped up even further, being tasked with overseeing the entire organization’s pitching practice. Holt held those roles concurrently in an effort to form a cohesive top-down vision throughout the team’s big league staff and pitching development efforts.

Holt will join the Red Sox staff with a narrower focus in his responsibilities. He’ll join a revamped pitching practice in Boston that began when Craig Breslow, a former big league reliever who’s entering his second season as the team’s chief baseball officer, hired former Sox reliever Andrew Bailey away from the Giants to serve as the club’s new pitching coach. Holt will also work closely with another Breslow hire from last offseason: Red Sox director of pitching Justin Willard (the same role Holt held in Baltimore and that Breslow himself held with the Cubs before landing the top job in Boston).

Holt fills a role that was vacated when the Sox dismissed six coaches, including bullpen coach Kevin Walker, at season’s end. Walker had been in place since being hired by former chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom back in 2020.

Red Sox Among Teams Showing Interest In Nathan Eovaldi

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Nathan Eovaldi returned to free agency when he declined a $20MM player option with the Rangers. Reports quickly tied him to the Braves, but Atlanta is one of a number of teams involved. Rob Bradford of WEEI tweets that Eovaldi’s camp has heard from roughly a dozen teams, the Red Sox among them.

Eovaldi spent five seasons with the Sox, totaling 461 2/3 innings of 4.05 ERA ball. He had a fantastic postseason in 2018 to help Boston win the World Series. Eovaldi returned on a $68MM free agent deal on the heels of the championship. He generally lived up to the contract, most notably finishing fourth in AL Cy Young balloting in 2021. Eovaldi departed after the ’22 season, declining a qualifying offer before accepting a two-year, $34MM guarantee with the Rangers.

That positioned the righty to win a second ring. Eovaldi made 25 starts with a 3.63 ERA as Texas won the World Series in 2023. The Rangers disappointed this year, though that wasn’t any fault of his. Eovaldi fired 170 2/3 innings across 29 starts, working to a 3.80 earned run average with solid peripherals. He punched out nearly 24% of batters faced while issuing free passes at just a 6% rate. His fastball still checked in around 95-96 MPH on average, while he picked up swinging strikes on an excellent 13% of his pitches.

There aren’t many better free agent starting pitchers in the short term. Eovaldi turns 35 in February. He’ll be limited to two or at most three years, but he’s well positioned to cash in on annual basis. The previous qualifying offer made him ineligible for one this time around. There’s no draft compensation weighing down his market. Eovaldi should land behind Sean Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi, both of whom are two years younger, among high-AAV starters available for relatively short terms.

Boston probably has some level of interest in all the top starters. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow spoke at the GM Meetings about the need to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. Boston has solid depth with Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, a returning Lucas Giolito, and the likes of Richard Fitts and Cooper Criswell. They’re awaiting word from Nick Pivetta on the $21.05MM qualifying offer, though he’s seemingly leaning against the QO as he looks for multiple years.

The Sox are among the most obvious fits for the Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried tier in free agency. Bradford suggests that the true top-of-the-market arms remain the Sox’s biggest focus, but Eovaldi represents one of the biggest available upgrades among the middle tier of free agents.

Blue Jays, Red Sox To Meet With Juan Soto, Scott Boras

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7:54pm: There is currently no meeting scheduled between Soto and the Giants, tweets Jayson Stark of the Athletic.

11:10 am: The list of known teams who have upcoming meetings with Juan Soto and agent Scott Boras continues to grow. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that both the Blue Jays and Red Sox are set to meet with Soto and his representative this week. They’ll join Mets and Yankees in that regard. Passan adds that the Jays are “serious about adding a star” to the lineup alongside Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Soto unsurprisingly tops their wishlist.

Similarly, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman paints the Jays as a legitimate contender in the Soto bidding. Toronto was famously willing to put forth the same offer that the Dodgers did to lure Shohei Ohtani to Los Angeles last winter, and Heyman adds that the Jays tried to trade for Soto last winter as well before the Yankees ultimately acquired him from the Padres. Both reports peg Toronto as a motivated buyer on the heels of a disastrous 2024 season that saw them finish in the AL East cellar.

From a payroll vantage point, the Jays should have a clear path to making a compelling offer. Jose Berrios and Yariel Rodriguez are the only players the Blue Jays have signed beyond the 2026 season — the latter never earning more than $8MM annually. RosterResource projects Toronto’s 2025 payroll at around $197MM at the moment — a good ways shy of last year’s franchise-record $225MM Opening Day mark. That projected number could drop even further with several non-tender/trade candidates still on the roster (e.g. Dillon Tate, Erik Swanson, Jordan Romano, Zach Pop). By 2026, the Blue Jays have under $75MM in guarantees on the books.

Toronto, of course, hopes to extend the aforementioned Guerrero and would need a massive offer to do so, but a long-term payroll ledger with Soto and Guerrero seems plenty doable given the lack of other commitments. Shortstop Bo Bichette could be another extension candidate, but he’s a tough case for a long-term deal after an injury-shortened season that included career-worst production at the plate. At the very least, it’s easy to see how the Blue Jays could make an aggressive push and competitive bid for Soto, as they did with Ohtani.

That’s generally true of the Red Sox as well, though their short-term books aren’t quite so clean. Rafael Devers, Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela are the only players signed truly long-term in Boston, but the Red Sox will still be paying Masataka Yoshida and Trevor Story notable salaries through the 2027 season at least. That said, the Sox have a much smaller arbitration class and don’t have the specter of a superstar’s potential departure hanging over them, as the Jays do with Guerrero. They’re projected for a payroll around $136MM in 2025 (again, via RosterResource) — modest relative to their franchise-record spending levels.

That said, the Red Sox have curbed spending in recent seasons. They did open the 2022 season with a $206MM payroll but have otherwise spent in the $170-180MM range since 2020. Back in 2018, when they last won a World Series, the Sox opened the season at $233MM. They followed with a $236MM in 2019 (both figures via Cot’s). Signing Soto would require a willingness to return to those 2018-19 levels — if not exceed them — but there are some signals the organization is willing to do just that.

Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has been vocal about his intention of “deliver[ing] the team that’s capable of winning the AL East and making a deep playoff run,” adding that the Sox need to be willing to be big players in the free agent and trade markets in order to do so. Skeptics will call back to chairman Tom Werner’s regrettable and oft-mocked “full throttle” comments from an offseason ago, but Breslow has taken a more direct and repeated stance on his intent to be active in both markets.

The Sox have multiple areas they’ll need to target, however, as Breslow has also voiced his intent to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. (They’ve also been linked to Max Fried, further lending credence to the idea that they’re willing to spend this winter.) Soto won’t accomplish that specific goal, nor will he help to balance out a heavily left-handed lineup (another of Breslow’s stated objectives), but that’s of little consequence. Free agents as young and impactful as Soto only come around every few decades; adding him to the lineup is an endeavor unique unto itself, and the rest of a team’s given goals can take a backseat to such a rare pursuit.

Nick Pivetta Unlikely To Accept Qualifying Offer

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Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta was one of the more surprising recipients of a $21.05MM qualifying offer earlier this month, but he’s likely to reject the offer in search of a multi-year deal, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan, who suggests that “at least” a three-year deal should be waiting for the righty, who’s heading into his age-32 season. Passan lists the Orioles, Cubs and Braves as potential landing spots.

Anything more than a three-year deal for Pivetta would register as a surprise and something of a precedent-breaker. In the past ten offseasons, only four pitchers have commanded a contract of four or more years when signing ahead of their age-32 season or later (link via MLBTR’s Contract Tracker): Jacob deGrom (five years, $185MM starting at age 35), Hyun Jin Ryu (four years, $80MM starting at 33), Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5MM starting at 32) and James Shields (four years, $75MM starting at 33).

Solid as Pivetta is, he doesn’t have the track record of any of those four pitchers. When healthy, deGrom has been the best pitcher on the planet. Ryu signed his four-year deal after a Cy Young runner-up. Greinke was opting out of a six-year, $147MM deal with the Dodgers and was one of the game’s best pitchers at the time he signed his six-year deal with Arizona. Shields was a clear No. 1 or 2 starter, having pitched 933 innings over the prior four seasons — 233 per year — with a 3.17 ERA and strong strikeout and walk rates.

Pivetta doesn’t have that sort of resume, though his high-end strikeout and walk rates have made him a candidate for a quietly strong deal. When preparing for our annual top 50 free agent rankings, we felt a three-year deal in the $14-17MM annual range was possible for Pivetta — at least before he received a qualifying offer. The right-hander has never turned in a sub-4.00 ERA campaign, but that’s largely due to a regular susceptibility to home runs, something that another club might feel can be curbed or improved with a tweak in mechanics, approach or pitch selection. Pivetta is durable, misses bats at a premium level and has improved his command three years running. He ranked 10th among 126 big league pitchers (min. 100 innings) in terms of his K-BB% this season (22.9%).

It still seems feasible that a three-year deal could be there, but suggesting anything more feels like a stretch, unless multiple teams feel Pivetta is untapped as a potential No. 1-2 starter and is willing to ignore historical norms for pitchers in this age bracket. That could well be the case, but Passan opines that Pivetta “is looking at one of the biggest deals of the winter for a starter,” which would surprise plenty of onlookers. That’s a subjective sentence, but no one expects Pivetta to top Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell and Jack Flaherty, while others like Sean Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi should have greater per-year earning power on a three- or four-year contract.

Time will tell where the bidding lands, but the more immediate takeaway is that Pivetta apparently doesn’t feel inclined to lock in a one-year deal that would more than double his career earnings. That speaks to the strength of the market he and his agents at CAA are finding for his services thus far.

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