Red Sox Rumors

Red Sox left-hander James Paxton plans to retire after this season, he tells Rob Bradford of WEEI. The 11-year big league veteran announced the news on Bradford’s Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast (X link).

“I’m hoping that we can squeak into the postseason and I get an opportunity to pitch again. But I think, after this season, I’m going to be retiring and moving on to the next chapter,” Paxton said. The 35-year-old called it a “tough” decision because he remains confident in his ability but indicated he feels it’s the right time to “settle in at home.” Paxton told Bradford he has already gotten to work on building a company focused on addressing athletes’ mental health.

While there’s a small chance he gets back on the mound this year, it’s likely his playing career is over. Paxton tore his right calf in mid-August and was placed on the 60-day injured list last month. He’s ineligible to return until the middle of October. The Sox would need to erase a four-game deficit in the Wild Card race and likely need to make a run into at least the ALCS for Paxton to be able to get on the mound.

Injuries were an unfortunately frequent occurrence. This season was only the fifth in which he reached 100 MLB innings. Paxton was a very productive pitcher when healthy, highlighted by a four-year peak with the Mariners and Yankees at the end of the 2010s.

The Blue Jays initially drafted Paxton, a British Columbia native who’d eventually earn the “Big Maple” nickname. Toronto selected him 37th overall in the 2009 draft. The sides couldn’t agree to contract terms, however, sending the 6’4″ southpaw back to the draft the following year. Seattle selected him in the fourth round, a move that would pay off a few seasons later.

Paxton was immediately one of the M’s top pitching prospects. He got to the big leagues as a September call-up in 2013, firing 24 innings of 1.50 ERA ball. Paxton battled shoulder and finger injuries, respectively, over the following two seasons. He was limited to 13 starts in each year but managed a sub-4.00 earned run average both times. Paxton topped 100 innings and reached 20 appearances for the first time in 2016, turning in a 3.79 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning.

The following season saw Paxton emerge as an upper mid-rotation starter, at least on a rate basis. He fired 136 frames with a career-best 2.98 ERA while striking out more than 28% of opponents. Paxton continued to miss bats in bunches the following year, when he fanned 32.2% of batters faced with a 3.76 ERA across 160 1/3 innings. Among pitchers with 150+ innings, only Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole had a better strikeout rate that year.

That 2018 campaign saw Paxton log the highest workload of his career and included perhaps his two best performances. Paxton no-hit the Jays at the Rogers Centre in May 2018, becoming the second Canadian pitcher in MLB history to throw a no-hitter. That was one of two complete game victories he posted that month, though those arguably weren’t even his best outings. Paxton also struck out a personal-high 16 A’s hitters over seven scoreless innings in the start preceding his no-hitter. Overall, he struck out 51 hitters with a 1.67 ERA across 43 innings that month.

At the end of that season, the M’s traded Paxton’s final two seasons of arbitration eligibility to the Yankees for a three-player return. The headliner, Justus Sheffield, did not pan out. Erik Swanson, included as the secondary piece, developed into a productive reliever. Paxton had a strong first season in the Bronx, tossing 150 2/3 frames of 3.82 ERA ball while punching out nearly 30% of opposing hitters. He started a trio of postseason games for a Yankee team that lost to the Astros in the ALCS. Barring a surprise run from this year’s Sox, those were the only playoff appearances of his career. Paxton fanned 20 while allowing five runs in 13 innings (3.46 ERA).

That was Paxton’s final full season. He sustained a flexor strain during the shortened 2020 season, limiting him to five starts in his walk year. The Mariners brought him back during his first free agent trip on a buy-low $8.5MM deal. Paxton pitched once before his elbow blew out. He underwent Tommy John surgery and wouldn’t pitch again until 2023.

Paxton made 19 starts and logged 96 innings for the Red Sox last season, the second year of a $10MM free agent deal. He returned to the open market and signed with the Dodgers on a contract that eventually paid him $13MM after he hit certain start bonuses. L.A. squeezed him off the roster just before the trade deadline and flipped him back to Boston. Paxton made three starts for the Sox before suffering the calf injury. He’ll finish the year with a 4.40 ERA across 100 1/3 innings between the two clubs.

While the injuries kept Paxton a bit below 1000 innings, he finishes his career with a solid 3.77 earned run average. Paxton recorded his 1000th strikeout against former teammate Justin Turner on July 30. He made 177 appearances, all starts, and compiled a 73-41 record with a pair of complete games. Paxton’s one shutout was a memorable one — the aforementioned no-hitter in his home country. Baseball Reference credits him with roughly 14 wins above replacement, while he was worth 19 WAR at FanGraphs. B-Ref calculates his earnings at nearly $50MM. MLBTR congratulates Paxton on a fine career and sends our best wishes on his worthwhile endeavor to help athletes with their mental health.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.