Red Sox Push Back Price’s Next Start; Chavis Suffers Setback In Rehab
The Red Sox’ faint Wild Card hopes may have taken another hit, as manager Alex Cora told reporters today that David Price won’t make his scheduled start against the Yankees this weekend after experiencing tightness in his ailing wrist during his most recent bullpen session (Twitter links via the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier). The outlook on infielder Michael Chavis is worse, it seems, as a setback in his rehab from an oblique strain has placed the remainder of the season in jeopardy for the 24-year-old rookie.
Price is currently able to throw fastballs but is having difficulty throwing his cutter and changeup. Cora didn’t offer a specific return date on the lefty, but his scratch will now relegate the Red Sox to a pair of bullpen games against the Yankees in their four-game series this weekend. Recently signed righty Jhoulys Chacin is a candidate to start tomorrow’s game in place of Price, but he’d apparently function as more of an opener than a traditional starter; Chacin hasn’t pitched in a big league game since July 24 and hasn’t pitched more than three innings in an appearance since July 14.
Price only just returned from a month-long absence that stemmed from a cyst in his wrist. The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey tweets that the left-hander underwent a platelet-rich plasma injection while on the injured list that was intended to help break up the cyst. Now, however, the ongoing discomfort in the area makes offseason surgery to remove the cyst a likelier outcome.
Chavis, meanwhile, has been out since Aug. 11 with the oblique injury that now threatens to put an to his rookie campaign. Long one of the organization’s top prospects, Chavis burst onto the scene in late April and turned in an OPS north of .900 through his first month-plus in the big leagues. His offensive contributions have slowly waned in recent months, though, and Chavis was mired in an ugly 5-for-32 slump at the time of his IL placement. In all, he’s given the Sox a respectable .254/.322/.444 line through 382 trips to the plate, clubbing 18 home runs, 10 doubles and a triple along the way.
Even with Chavis now unlikely to return in 2019, Cora noted that there’s still no thought to adding top infield prospect Bobby Dalbec to the Major League roster. Dalbec, also 24, hit .234/.371/.454 with 20 home runs in a very pitcher-friendly setting in Double-A — that slash line was 43 percent better than league average, per wRC+ — before graduating to Triple-A and hitting .257/.301/.478 (91 wRC+) in 123 plate appearances there.
Red Sox Announce Series Of 40-Man Moves
According to an official team release, the Red Sox are tinkering with the 40-man roster to make room for a number of September call-ups. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com has the rundown on all the moves, which include the activation of left-hander David Price from the injured list. Newly-signed righty Jhoulys Chacin, catcher Juan Centeno, and outfielder Gorkys Hernandez have all been added to the 40-man roster. To make space for the above trio, injured pitchers Chris Sale and Steven Wright have been transferred to the 60-day injured list, while first baseman Joey Curletta was outrighted to Double-A.
Price last pitched for Boston in early August before a wrist issue forced him to the injured list—his second stint this season. As for much of his Red Sox tenure, it’s been a rocky year for Price, whose hefty contract looms in the face of good—not great—numbers.
Chacin, who yesterday inked a minor-league deal with Boston, will have a crack at the rotation as he seeks to redeem himself from a disappointing season in Milwaukee, which released him just a year removed from a stellar year. With the injury to Sale and many other options underperforming on the mound, Chacin represents a low-risk signee for a September audition.
Curletta has yet to make his big-league debut, and that milestone will have to wait a bit longer for the 25-year-old, a 2012 draftee of the Dodgers. He’ll remain with Double-A Portland though no longer on the Boston 40-man roster. He’s spent this season between the two levels of the upper minors, posting a combined .678 OPS with 14 home runs.
Centeno, 29, and Hernandez, 31, will each make their Red Sox debuts. Neither has appeared in the Major Leagues this season after inking minor-league contracts last winter. Centeno, who will offer depth beyond Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon, is the owner of a career .227/.278/.331 batting line, playing parts of six Major League seasons with the Mets, Brewers, Twins, Astros, and Rangers. Hernandez made a name for himself with the Giants, where he played the previous three seasons. In 2018, he enjoyed a career year as he was given regular playing time, posting a .676 OPS to go with 15 home runs.
Red Sox Sign Jhoulys Chacin To Minor-League Deal
The Red Sox have signed free-agent right-hander Jhoulys Chacin to a minor-league deal, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Many expected Chacin to sign on with the Red Sox, who expressed interest in the ex-Brewer after he threw a bullpen session in front of Red Sox brass.
Chacin hit the open market on Monday after he was released by the Brewers, the team for which he took the mound on Opening Day this season. Evidently, Milwaukee’s opinion of the 31-year-old soured after he mustered only a 5.79 ERA in 88 2/3 innings for the Brew Crew. It’s been a swift fall from grace for Chacin, who just last season pitched nearly 200 innings of 3.50 ERA baseball en route to a game 7 start in Milwaukee. However, David Stearns and company prefer other in-house options, to the point that the club was willing to eat the $6MM remaining on Chacin’s deal.
It shouldn’t be long before Chacin is given a chance to pitch out of the Boston rotation, which has seemingly been in a constant state of turmoil this season. With Chris Sale unlikely to pitch again this year and rotation stalwarts David Price and Rick Porcello failing to meet expectations—to say nothing of Nathan Eovaldi‘s underperformance and the flubbed acquisition of Andrew Cashner—the Red Sox are exhausting every last option in hopes that something will stick as the club hopes for a last-minute turnaround. As a last resort, taking a late-season chance on Chacin—who is just a year removed from a career year and whose injuries this year may in part be attributed to injuries—can’t hurt and has some potential for a nice payoff.
Red Sox Interested In Jhoulys Chacin
Free-agent right-hander Jhoulys Chacin conducted a workout with the Red Sox on Friday, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald reports. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and manager Alex Cora were on hand to watch Chacin throw a bullpen session in Anaheim, but it’s unknown whether Boston will sign the hurler.
Chacin has been available since the Brewers released him Monday, which was an especially damning transaction when considering the adversity their rotation has gone through this season. After back-to-back quality seasons with the Padres and Brewers, Chacin dealt with multiple injuries and struggled to a 5.79 ERA/5.68 FIP with 8.12 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9 in 19 starts and 88 2/3 innings this year. The Brewers elected to cut ties with Chacin as a result, even though they’re short on viable starters and had to eat the rest of his $6MM salary in releasing him.
The Red Sox are also in dire straits in their rotation, leading to their interest in Chacin. They’re likely to go without injured ace Chris Sale for the rest of the year, while David Price (nearing activation from the IL), Nathan Eovaldi and Rick Porcello haven’t given the team the type of production it expected entering the campaign. Thanks in part to their starting staff’s issues, the defending champion Red Sox are a strong bet to miss the playoffs. Nevertheless, they could take a late-season flier on Chacin, who has a fan in Sox scout Steve Peck, according to Silverman. The club worked out Chacin at Peck’s recommendation.
MLBTR Poll: Superstars For Sale?
ESPN scribe Jeff Passan floated a very interesting tidbit in his latest column Wednesday: There’s a belief among rival executives that the Red Sox, Indians and Cubs will at least be willing to listen to trade offers for their franchise players during the upcoming winter. That means any of Boston’s Mookie Betts, Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor or Chicago’s Kris Bryant could change hands once the offseason rolls around. It’s far from a guarantee anyone from the group will wind up on the move, but the idea that they might should make hot stove season all the more interesting.
The only member of the trio with fewer than two years of team control remaining is Betts, who will enter his final season of arbitration eligibility over the winter. The 26-year-old right fielder is just a season removed from earning AL MVP honors, which helped him land a historic $20MM payday to avoid arbitration last winter. The 2019 version of Betts hasn’t been as stellar as the MVP-winning player, but that’s not a knock on his performance this season so much as a compliment to what he did a year ago, when he amassed an eyebrow-raising 10.4 fWAR. Betts is up to 4.8 in that category this year, having slashed a strong .282/.384/.494 with 21 home runs and 13 stolen bases across 622 plate appearances.
Just a year from winning their latest World Series title, why would the Red Sox possibly move Betts? They’re unlikely to make the playoffs this year, though a trip back to the postseason in 2020 hardly looks out of the question. However, Betts has indicated on multiple occasions that he’d like to test free agency after next season, when he could reel in one of the all-time richest contracts in the sport. For the Red Sox, trading Betts a year before a potential journey to the open market would help the club replenish its farm system to some degree. The Red Sox only came in 22nd place in Baseball America’s most recent talent rankings.
The Indians, on the other hand, boast the game’s 10th-best system, though they’re incapable of spending to the extent the Red Sox can. That means Lindor is quite likely to end up elsewhere in the coming years. Mr. Smile will be a free agent after 2021, but it would behoove the Indians to get something for him prior to then. In the meantime, the 25-year-old Lindor is sure to collect a notable raise over his current $10.55MM salary when he reaches arbitration for the penultimate time during the offseason. Lindor perhaps hasn’t been quite as great as he was in 2018, a career-high 7.6-fWAR campaign, but his 4.3 mark and .300/.353/.532 line with 24 homers and 19 steals through 522 PA are mighty impressive nonetheless. Needless to say, teams will line up for the elite shortstop if small-market Cleveland goes with the agonizing decision to make him available in the coming months.
And then there’s Bryant, yet another former MVP. The Boras client joins Lindor as another all-world performer who’s slated for his second-last trip through arbitration in a few months. Bryant, 27, is well on his way to another raise (he’s currently on a $12.9MM salary), having batted .282/.379/.521 and smashed 29 dingers over 552 trips to the plate. Whether the Cubs would truly consider parting with Bryant is up in the air, but they are amid their second somewhat disappointing season (albeit one that looks as if it will culminate in yet another playoff berth), and waving goodbye to the third baseman/outfielder would go a long way toward aiding them in bolstering their system. It’s definitely a below-average group, according to BA, which places it 29th in baseball.
We’re still a couple months from the offseason rearing its head, but if anyone from this trio hits the block, it should make for an incredibly interesting winter of rumors. Do you expect any of them to actually change teams after the season?
(Poll link for app users)
Will any of these three be traded in the offseason?
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Francisco Lindor 39% (3,089)
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Mookie Betts 34% (2,690)
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Kris Bryant 26% (2,080)
Total votes: 7,859
AL East Notes: Kiermaier, Holt, Pearson
Some items from around the AL East…
- The Rays would “really would like to avoid” an injured list placement for Kevin Kiermaier, manager Kevin Cash told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times and other reporters, though Kiermaier is still “in a significant amount of pain” following a collision with the outfield wall on Sunday. Kiermaier hasn’t taken the field since suffering the left rib cage contusion, though Cash was hopeful that the center fielder would be able to return on Friday. Kiermaier already spent ten days on the IL earlier this season due to a sprained left thumb, though 2019 has thus far been a relatively healthy season for the injury-plagued outfielder. His 109 games played is already the second-highest total of his seven-year career.
- Super-utilityman Brock Holt is enjoying the best season of his eight-year career, leaving MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo to wonder if the Red Sox will be able to affordably re-sign Holt in free agency this offseason. Despite missing over seven weeks due to shoulder and eye injuries, Holt has hit .320/.393/.455 over 206 plate appearances, playing mostly as a second baseman to help the Sox fill the void left by the injured Dustin Pedroia. Cotillo thinks the 31-year-old could find a three-year deal worth $27MM-$30MM on the open market, though “that might take a market rebound and some teams rewarding Holt for trending upward this season.” While Boston has a lot of money coming off the books this winter, the club still has roughly $159.35MM in projected salary commitments (as per Roster Resource) and that’s not counting big raises due to arbitration-eligible players like Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. Andrew Benintendi, or Eduardo Rodriguez. The Red Sox have Marco Hernandez on hand as a possible heir apparent utility infielder, should they choose to let Holt go and spend elsewhere. For his part, Holt stated last spring that he “would love to stay here for the rest of my career.”
- In a radio interview on the Fan 590’s Good Show today, Blue Jays pitching prospect Nate Pearson said that he doesn’t think he’ll be making this MLB debut this season. “[The Blue Jays] haven’t really talked to me about anything,” Pearson said. “I’m just assuming I’m going home if we don’t make the [Triple-A] playoffs and just taking some time off. That’s all I really have planned right now.” Pearson has been dominant in working his way up the Jays’ minor league ladder this season, with an overall 2.05 ERA, 10.6 K/9, and 4.75 K/BB rate in 96 2/3 combined innings at the high-A, Double-A, and Triple-A levels. This performance has elevated Pearson’s already-high prospect stock, as he placed 14th and 15th on midseason top-100 prospect lists from MLB.com and Baseball America, respectively. Since Pearson has made only two Triple-A starts and missed almost all of 2018 due to injuries, the Jays are being cautious in bringing along the prized right-hander (plus, service time considerations are likely in mind). Given Pearson’s ability, however, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Pearson in the big leagues before the halfway point of the 2020 season.
Can The Red Sox Mount A Late-Season Comeback?
It has been presumed for some time that the World Series-champion Red Sox were sunk in their quest for a repeat. While the club has easily kept its head above water, it has struggled to bag enough victories in a highly stratified American League.
An eight-game losing streak wrapping the trade deadline — at which Boston held pat — sent the club’s chances plummeting. By August 21st, Fangraphs’ playoff odds tracker gave the Sox a meager 1.8% chance of making the postseason.
But here’s the thing about postseason odds charts: they make for useful, rough gauges as to where a team stands at a given moment. But they can’t and don’t reflect all the nuanced factors that can influence performance swings. And the odds are based upon simulations of how the remainder of the season can play out. Thus, they necessarily change as actual results come in, and can change rather significantly in fairly short periods of time.
(The Red Sox suffered a drop of nearly fifty percentage points from July 27th through August 4th. The Mets did nearly the opposite from July 24th through August 10th — only to quickly shed many of the “gains” with a recent skid.)
With just a month of the season remaining, there are less plausible scenarios. But several of them certainly involve the Red Sox continuing to play once the regular season concludes.
After an 8-3 stretch of play — coupled with middling periods from the Rays and Indians — the BoSox have shot back up to a 9.8% chance by reckoning of the Fangraphs computers. Other systems are less optimistic: 538 puts it at 7%, Baseball-Reference at just 3.1%. But these systems are telling us the same essential thing: there’s a chance, and not just in the Lloyd Christmas sense.
The Indians just lost Jose Ramirez and are still missing some key pitchers, as are the Rays. The Athletics seem to be cresting, but who’s to say the rotation can keep outperforming ERA estimators by such a wide margin? (4.02 ERA; 4.87 xFIP; 4.94 SIERA.) Or that the Red Sox’ opposite fortunes won’t suddenly reverse? (5.02 ERA; 4.44 xFIP; 4.41 SIERA.) David Price is slated for a return, with Michael Chavis perhaps not far behind him. Boston relievers have reversed their fortunes over the past month, perhaps portending good things for high-leverage situations.
Gut out a few extra wins, and those postseason odds will keep lurching forward. Gain some momentum, and perhaps the goal will feel — and even actually be — more attainable than the numbers would suggest. This team has been there before, so there’s no questioning the capacity. And it’s arguably the best of the AL Wild Card contenders from a true-talent perspective.
That’s the argument in favor of a stirring comeback, anyway. But what do you think? Do you agree with the computer simulations, or do you believe the Red Sox will mount a successful charge? (Poll link for app users.)
Will the Red Sox make the playoffs?
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No 77% (7,616)
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Yes 23% (2,229)
Total votes: 9,845
Red Sox To Activate David Price On Sunday
The Red Sox will activate left-hander David Price from the injured list to start against the Angels on Sunday, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. Meanwhile, lefty Brian Johnson will finish the year in Boston’s bullpen, according to Abraham.
Price went to the shelf with a cyst in his wrist back on Aug. 8, which came on the heels of a rough few starts. The 34-year-old owned a 3.16 ERA as of July 16, but the number shot to 4.36 in the handful of outings preceding his IL placement. A significant portion of the damage came in Price’s most recent appearance, in which the rival Yankees clobbered him for seven earned runs on nine hits (including a pair of homers) in 2 2/3 innings.
Recent struggles notwithstanding, the Red Sox will be glad to get back Price, who’s in the fourth season of a seven-year, $217MM investment. For the most part, Price has been a decent contributor this season, evidenced by a 3.63 FIP/3.67 xFIP/3.82 SIERA with 10.77 K/9 and 2.65 BB/9 in 105 1/3 innings. And the rest of the Red Sox’s starting staff isn’t in particularly great shape, which helps explain why the defending champions are 5 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. Injured ace Chris Sale is probably done for the year, former Cy Young winner Rick Porcello has been a letdown, and big-money offseason re-signing Nathan Eovaldi has both underperformed and dealt with significant elbow problems.
Thanks in part to the myriad issues in their rotation, the Red Sox have had to give seven starts to Johnson, who hasn’t produced appealing results during an injury- and illness- shortened campaign. The 28-year-old has logged a 5.09 ERA/5.03 FIP with 5.87 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 out of Boston’s rotation.
AL Injury Notes: Buxton, Price, Laureano, Pence
Out since Aug. 2 with a left shoulder subluxation, center fielder Byron Buxton still isn’t ready to rejoin the Twins’ roster, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Buxton is coming back to the Twins, but only because his rehab assignment hit a snag. He has been dealing with discomfort in his shoulder this week, though an MRI didn’t reveal any new inflammation, per Hayes. “We’re still optimistic that he’s still going to help this team at some point before the season’s end,” said general manager Thad Levine, who added he’s “very confident” Buxton will slot back into the Twins’ lineup this year. While Buxton has been on the IL three times in 2019, he has nonetheless managed 2.8 fWAR in 295 plate appearances, thereby helping Minnesota to a three-game lead in the American League Central.
- Red Sox southpaw David Price “believes” he’ll come off the IL to rejoin this weekend in Anaheim, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes. A TFCC cyst in Price’s left wrist has kept him from pitching in the majors since Aug. 4, which was a particularly forgettable start for the 34-year-old. Price gave up seven earned in 2 2/3 innings against the Yankees then, raising his 2019 ERA from 3.86 to 4.36 in one fell swoop. The hurler’s other numbers are much better, however, as he owns a 3.64 FIP with 10.77 K/9 and 2.65 BB/9 across 105 1/3 innings.
- Athletics center fielder Ramon Laureano has been on the shelf since July 29 with a shin injury, though it’s possible he’ll return without embarking on a rehab assignment, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Laureano has been racking up at-bats at the A’s minor league complex, and he could rejoin the team this weekend or during an upcoming homestand that starts next Tuesday, Slusser suggests. Oakland has done well without Laureano, evidenced by the fact that it holds the AL’s second wild-card spot, but he has been one of the drivers of its success this season. The 25-year-old has slashed .284/.334/.518 with 21 homers, 12 steals and 3.0 fWAR through 419 trips to the plate.
- The Rangers placed outfielder Hunter Pence on the IL on Tuesday (retroactive to Aug. 24) with a lower back strain, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets. The club recalled infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa from Triple-A Nashville in a corresponding move. It’s the second IL placement of the season for Pence, who missed a few weeks earlier in the summer on account of a groin strain. Injuries aside, this season has been a resounding success for the 36-year-old Pence, who earned his fourth All-Star appearance last month. After back-to-back woeful campaigns with the Giants, Pence took a minor league contract with the Rangers in the offseason and has since logged a stout .297/.358/.552 line and smacked 18 home runs in 316 plate appearances.
Latest On Dustin Pedroia
Rehabbing Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia seems to be in good spirits after his latest knee procedure. As Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports, the veteran reports that “things are going really good compared to where I was before the surgery.”
It’s only two weeks out, but that seems generally to be a promising development for a player whose future remains quite uncertain. As Bradford notes, it’s still not clear just how Pedroia will proceed with rehab work — if he does so at all — after several prior attempts at a return have been stymied.
Pedroia, who recently turned 36, is owed $25MM over the next two seasons. While the Boston organization would no doubt welcome a contribution from the long-time star, it’s hard to imagine the club will rely upon a return as it compiles a plan for the offseason.
Since undergoing season-ending surgery in 2017, Pedroia has appeared in just nine MLB contests. But he was still in good form prior to the onset of the physical ailments. From 2015 through 2017, he compiled a .304/.369/.430 batting line in 1,586 plate appearances.
Regardless of how Pedroia proceeds, it’ll be interesting to see how the Red Sox handle the second base position this winter. Brock Holt and Michael Chavis have spent much of the time there in 2019, but the former is a free agent and the latter is arguably better-suited to playing first base.