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GM Trade History: Jeff Luhnow

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It wasn’t long ago that many regarded Jeff Luhnow as one of the best general managers in baseball. The former Cardinals executive took the reins of a horrible Houston team after the 2011 season, oversaw a couple atrocious campaigns and then helped it morph into a juggernaut. Thanks in part to Luhnow’s work, the Astros are coming off three straight seasons of at least 100 victories. They won their first-ever World Series in 2017 and took home the American League pennant in 2019 on Luhnow’s watch.

Despite the accomplishments the Astros piled up under Luhnow, he’s now disgraced, suspended for a year and unemployed. Everything came crashing down for Luhnow during the offseason because of an Astros sign-stealing scandal that has called their recent success into question. As a result, Luhnow may never work in baseball again, let alone as a GM. Nevertheless, it’s worth looking back on his tenure atop the Astros’ baseball operations.

With no real baseball going on for the foreseeable future, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd began a series Tuesday examining the trade histories of GMs. We might explore all current GMs’ swaps, but even though he’s without a job, Luhnow makes for a fascinating enough case to warrant his own post. With that said, we’ll take a look back at the notable trades Luhnow made in Houston. You can assess his trade history after reviewing it…

2011-12 Offseason

2012 Season

2012-13 Offseason

2013 Season

2013-14 Offseason

2014 Season

2014-15 Offseason

2o15 Season

2015-16 Offseason

2016 Season

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

No one knows whether Luhnow will get another chance as a GM. His history of trades may play a role in that. How do you think he did in that department during his reign in Houston? (Poll link for app users)

Rookie Radar: AL West

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The delayed start to the 2020 season will obviously have a wide range of massive effects on Major League Baseball. Among them: a totally different promotional timeline for some of the game’s most exciting young players. We will never know how things would’ve unfolded. And we don’t yet even know what the parameters are for an altered season. But there’s no doubting the impact.

Typically, opportunities open as rosters evolve over the course of a grueling, 162-game season. Some top prospects force their way up to the majors; others are called upon because a need arises. In a shorter campaign, there’ll be less attrition … though we may also see relaxed roster rules and changes to allocation of service time that could create opportunities.

Still, with more time to examine rosters and think about the state of the game, there’s an opportunity to stop and appreciate the young talent on the cusp of the majors. We’ll run through the most interesting prospects pressing for near-term MLB action, starting with the American League West:

Angels

There’s loads of excitement at the top of the farm. The Halos have one of the game’s very best overall prospects in Jo Adell. Perhaps their best chance of catching the Astros lies in Adell taking the league by storm and combining with Mike Trout and (a hopefully resurgent) Justin Upton to form one of the game’s best outfields. Another highly regarded young outfielder, Brandon Marsh, is also close. An elbow injury limited him this spring, but he’ll hopefully rehab through that while the game is on pause.

Otherwise, the Angels will certainly hope they get a significant contribution out of lefty Patrick Sandoval. The 23-year-old took some lumps last year but did put up a 13.5% swinging-strike rate in his first ten MLB outings.

Astros

The division’s dominant force enters the season facing a few questions in the MLB staff. Fortunately, there are a bunch of arms coming. Forrest Whitley still has immense upside despite a brutal 2019 season. He’ll be tasked with getting back on track in the upper minors. Having snuck past Whitley, Jose Urquidy will slot right back into the big league rotation. He’s not known for his high-powered arsenal, but he was highly effective late last year — even including a remarkable performance when pressed into postseason duties (one earned run, 12:2 K/BB in ten innings).

High-octane righty Bryan Abreu also got some playoff action after a strong relief showing late in the season. He could be a force in the pen. Fellow right-handers Christian Javier, Enoli Paredes, and Brandon Bielak are also on the rise.

Another well-regarded player who debuted in 2019 is third baseman Abraham Toro. He smashed minor-league pitching but didn’t thrive in a 25-game run in the majors. Toro had also struggled in Grapefruit League action this spring, but it’d be a surprise if he isn’t called upon at some point in 2020.

Athletics

There’s loads of talent ready to see action in Oakland. Lefties Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk recovered from injuries and hit the majors last year. They’ll draw loads of attention, and rightly so, but that’s just the start. Righties Daulton Jefferies and James Kaprielian could also push for their debuts.

There are names to watch on the position player side as well. The A’s have a bevy of youthful backstops who’ll be entrusted with holding down the catching duties. Sean Murphy put himself on everyone’s map last year. He could be joined by Austin Allen, but fellow young receiver Jonah Heim is also a factor. Infielders Sheldon Neuse will factor, though he hasn’t hit much this spring and didn’t impress in his 2019 debut. It remains to be seen how the club will handle the out-of-options Jorge Mateo with strong competition at second base. Outfielder Luis Barrera hasn’t yet debuted but earned a 40-man spot after a solid partial season at Double-A.

Mariners

On the pitching side, lefty Justus Sheffield has been on the map for some time and is in need of extended testing at the game’s highest level. Righty Justin Dunn had some struggles in his brief debut last year but is competing for a MLB job in camp. Recent first-rounder Logan Gilbert ran up to Double-A in his first professional season and now stands as a consensus top-100 prospect.

Several position players are sure to factor in the bigs as well. Recently extended first baseman Evan White is obviously slated for a big role. And the M’s may well go ahead and provide long looks to 24-year-old outfielders Jake Fraley and Kyle Lewis, each of whom cracked the bigs last year. The Seattle org will want to get a sense of their outlook. After all, there’s more talent coming up behind. It never seemed likely we’d see much-hyped outfield prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez in 2020. With some or all of the minor-league season now gone, it’s even less likely.

Rangers

Most of the best-regarded Texas farmhands are still queuing up further down the system. But there are a few players vying for immediate playing time.

First and foremost, infielder/outfielder Nick Solak is almost sure to fit … well, somewhere. He has featured in the team’s planning all winter, even if the vision for where and how much he’d play has shifted as the Rangers pursued offseason additions. It’s plausible to imagine Solak appearing at first, second, third, and anywhere in the outfield as needs dictate.

Unless and until there’s an injury, the rotation doesn’t have any space. But lefty Joe Palumbo could be among the first names on call if a need arises, or he could slot into the pen. Righty DeMarcus Evans joined the 40-man after a lights-out 2019 season and seems likely to get a crack at the majors at some point.

Astros Release Jared Hughes

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The Astros announced that right-hander Jared Hughes has been released.  Hughes requested the move, as per the opt-out terms in his minor league deal with the team.

Hughes joined the Astros last month, on a minors deal that would have paid him $1.5MM if he had made the big league roster.  Hughes’ opt-out date was yesterday, and he chose to look for opportunities elsewhere since Houston didn’t put him on their 40-man roster.  Hughes posted only a 6.35 ERA over 5 2/3 spring innings, which could have impacted the team’s decision (though The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan expressed surprise at Houston’s decision).

The small Spring Training sample size aside, Hughes has posted very solid numbers over nine MLB seasons and 519 career relief innings.  The 34-year-old has a career 2.88 ERA despite not missing many bats (6.07 K/9) thanks to an outstanding ability to generate grounder, with a 61.5% career groundball rate.  It’s a skillset that has left Hughes perhaps a bit undervalued, as he has been non-tendered, released, and claimed on waivers within the last three years, and his firmest bit of security was a two-year, $4.5MM free agent deal with the Reds in the 2017-18 offseason.

2019 saw Hughes post a 4.04 ERA over 71 1/3 innings for the Reds and Phillies, easily the highest ERA of his eight full big league seasons.  A big spike in his home run total (1.6 HR/9) was the most obvious reason for that 4.04 number, though Hughes also benefited from a .228 BABIP, which particularly aided such an extreme groundball pitcher.

Hughes now heads into perhaps the most uncertain open market in baseball history, as free agents face even more questions than the average affiliated player given the league shutdown.  His track record should get him some attention from other teams, particularly defensively-adept squads that could best benefit from Hughes’ grounder-heavy arsenal.

Justin Verlander Undergoes Surgery To Repair Groin Injury

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The Astros announced Tuesday that right-hander Justin Verlander underwent a surgical procedure on his right groin. He’d been slowed by a lat strain earlier this month, but Verlander was also scratched from an earlier spring start due to tightness in his groin. That was deemed a precautionary measure at the time, but general manager James Click revealed today that the right-hander had a setback in rehabbing the issue.

“The hope was that physical therapy would be the proper course of action,” Click told reporters (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). “However, after a recent setback in his rehab, the medical staff recommended that a surgical procedure was necessary. The early prognosis is that Justin will be out for about six weeks.”

With the season pushed back at least eight weeks — quite likely longer than that — Verlander should have ample time to get back up to speed once players are cleared to resume training and once a firm target date for Opening Day is established.

Verlander’s health is paramount for the Astros more than ever, now that Gerrit Cole and (to a lesser extent) Wade Miley have departed via free agency. Houston’s 2020 roster is pricey enough that they’ll face luxury-tax penalties for the first time, and the front office opted to spend the limited resources afforded by owner Jim Crane to bring back catcher Martin Maldonado and reliever Joe Smith.

The hope is certainly that a returning Lance McCullers Jr. and young righty Jose Urquidy, whose stock soared in 2019, can join Verlander and Greinke in comprising a formidable top four. Offseason acquisition Austin Pruitt and holdovers like Brad Peacock, Josh James and Framber Valdez could all be in the mix for starts in the final rotation slot. Right-hander Rogelio Armenteros could eventually be in the mix, although he recently underwent surgery to have a bone spur removed from his elbow. Unlike Verlander, he’ll be sidelined for around four months, so he wouldn’t be an option to pitch until July at the earliest. Given the uncertainty regarding Opening Day, it’s anyone’s guess as to what point in the season that’ll be — or if the season will have even started.

Coronavirus Plan Updates: Cardinals, Astros, Mets, Royals, Rays

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Teams have taken various approaches in the wake of the coronavirus hiatus. Some more details have emerged about how a few teams plan to handle the unpredictable situation.

  • The Cardinals had initially planned to largely disperse, with only ten to fifteen players remaining at the team’s Florida complex. It seems they’ve reversed course somewhat. Fifteen to twenty-five players will stick around for the time being, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. They’ll continue to work out informally, but they unsurprisingly plan to pare back the training intensity, especially on the pitching side. Cardinals officials anticipate an eventual abbreviated “2.0 spring training,” in the words of manager Mike Shildt, that’ll last around two weeks in advance of MLB’s official regular season start date. Technically, MLB could return as soon as April 9, but it’s unlikely games will get underway until at least May.
  • The Astros will split into two groups to train, pitcher Lance McCullers announced (h/t to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Some members of the club will remain in the team’s spring complex in Florida, while others are headed back to Houston. The players plan to work out collectively.
  • Most of the Mets’ coaching staff will stay at the team’s Florida spring complex, as will many players on the team, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Newsday’s Tim Healey recently reported that most of the team would stay put.
  • As of yesterday, the Royals were holding tight at their Arizona spring facility, reports Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star. As pitcher Danny Duffy acknowledged to Worthy, the fluid situation could call for a change in plans at any time.
  • A good portion of the Rays’ roster is holding tight at the team’s spring complex for now. 30-35 players took part in an informal workout yesterday, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Unlike some other clubs, Tampa has no plans to conduct any sort of team-wide vote on the matter, Topkin adds, preferring to let players decide on a case-by-case basis their preferred course of action.

James Click, Profiled

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  • James Click “rose from constructing an ultimate frisbee website on a whim to shepherding the Houston Astros forward,” the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome writes in a profile of the Astros’ new general manager.  Click’s pre-Houston resume included a stint as a writer and database-builder for Baseball Prospectus, which led to 14 years working in the Rays’ front office thanks to a recommendation from another new Rays intern and former BP writer in Chaim Bloom, now Boston’s chief baseball officer.  Rome’s piece is a strong look at an executive whose arrival at a GM position comes with the added challenge of trying to reconfigure the Astros after an offseason of scandal and public scorn.

Rogelio Armenteros Has Bone Spur Removed From Elbow

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Astros right-hander Rogelio Armenteros underwent surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow yesterday, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Armenteros should be ready to pitch again in four months time.

Armenteros, 25, made five appearances (two starts) for the Astros last season, contributing 18 innings of 4.00 ERA/2.77 FIP baseball. He also put together 84 1/3 innings with a 4.80 ERA/5.08 FIP in Triple-A.

While not an upper-tier prospect (Baseball America puts him as the Astros’ #26 prospect, while MLB.com does not rank him among their top 30), Armenteros nonetheless offers some upside as a late-season contributor in 2020. He will be an option for the rotation or bullpen upon his return. Given his lack of big league experience, however, the 25-year-old will likely report directly to Triple-A upon his return. There’s enough uncertainty baked into the Astros’ rotation that Armenteros could very well find himself a key contributor at the tail end of 2020. He’ll have to prove himself healthy and effective first, of course.

In the meantime, the Astros’ rotation is most likely to consist of Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy and Josh James. The fifth spot is officially up for grabs, however, and Verlander remains on the shelf with a lat strain.

Quick Hits: Bauer’s Sandlot Game, Yankees, German, Astros, Verlander

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The enigmatic Trevor Bauer isn’t letting a state of emergency stop him from playing baseball, per his Twitter account. Bauer is organizing a “sandlot” game for any interested MLB or MiLB  players still in Arizona, complete with mandatory mics for all players involved for streaming across his social channels. While the wisdom of such a gathering may be at odds with directives of social distancing, there will no doubt be plenty of interest in watching Bauer spearhead, well, anything, really, but especially a sandlot-style ballgame as the rest of the sporting world is in shut down. More than half of his Reds’ teammates have left camp, per The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans, but many players from the Reds and other organizations remain in Arizona. Let’s check in on how else the virus might be affecting the ramp-up to the 2020 season…

  • Yankees’ right-hander Domingo German, currently suspended for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy, will have his own return delayed in step with the MLB season, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Davidoff offers clarification on the terms of German’s suspension, which will keep him on the shelf for the first 81 games of the 2020 season, whenever the season begins. Because the terms of the suspension are classified in games, there’s little wiggle room for German even if the season should be further delayed or truncated due to the spread of COVID-19. German had his best season to date in 2019, going 18-4 with a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP across 143 innings of work, striking out 9.6 K/9 versus 2.5 BB/9.
  • The Astros might be see the biggest benefit of a delayed season as it gives their ace Justin Verlander time to heal, writes MLB.com’s Ricard Justice. The Astros have a difficult season ahead, and Verlander is arguably the most important player for the defending American League champs. Verlander’s lat strain had put his opening day start in question, but with an extra month (and perhaps more) to heal, the Astros’ will certainly benefit in getting Verlander back earlier, even if he’s not ready whenever the season does actually kick off.

Bryan Abreu In Mix For Starter Role

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  • The Astros are looking for answers after the recent news that it will “take a miracle“ for Justin Verlander to be ready by Opening Day. One of those answers could come in the form of right-hander Bryan Abreu, according to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Abreu, who will turn 23 on April 22nd, made his MLB debut in 2019, coming out of the bullpen in seven games and compiling 13 Ks over 8 2/3 innings with an ERA of 1.04. Even with Verlander’s injury, Abreu seems to be a long shot to wind up in the rotation. Pitching coach Brent Strom lists Austin Pruitt, Framber Valdez and Josh James as candidates to fill in behind Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr. and Jose Urquidy, but he also has a fondness for Abreu. Strom indicated that he expects Abreu to be “a big-time starter at the big league level for a number of years,” though he also acknowledges the hurler could be present on Opening Day as a member of the bullpen.

Yordan Alvarez Still Not Ready To Return

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11:48am: GM James Click says the hope is for Alvarez to return on Friday, as Rome further reports. There’s no new concern, it seems. Alvarez has simply not progressed quite as quickly as hoped. Click indicate he still believes Alvarez will be ready for Opening Day.

9:52am: Astros outfielder/DH Yordan Alvarez has been dealing with a seemingly minor knee injury. But it’s an increasing threat to his readiness for the upcoming season.

Houston manager Dusty Baker says that Alvarez won’t appear on Wednesday as had been scheduled, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports on Twitter. His precise timeline is unclear and it’s now uncertain whether he’ll be able to on the active roster on Opening Day.

Alvarez did say just yesterday that he has seen improvement in the joint, as Rome reported. And he expressed optimism about his ability to return for the start of the season.

The precise issue isn’t entirely clear, but Alvarez has indicated it is more or less the same sort of discomfort he faced during the 2019 season. Those problems didn’t prevent him from marauding through MLB pitching, but there’s obviously ample good reason to ensure that the 22-year-old is at full health in advance of his sophomore campaign.

At the moment, there’s no indication that any invasive or other more significant treatment is under consideration. The ’Stros can afford to be patient. While the team would unquestionably miss Alvarez’s big left-handed bat during any absence, it can fill in by handing over more opportunities to Kyle Tucker and others.

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