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Poll: Grading the Jose Altuve Extension

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Yesterday, it was reported that the Astros have agreed to a five-year, $151MM extension with Jose Altuve that’ll keep him in Houston through his age-34 season. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd mentioned yesterday, the deal will be by far the largest extension ever given to a second baseman, handily topping the $110MM given to Dustin Pedroia by the Red Sox in 2013.

It’s also just the sixth deal in MLB history that comes with an average annual value greater than $30MM. A win above replacement is widely believed to be worth around $8MM, so it seems likely that Altuve could still provide the 4-ish WAR per year necessary to provide the Astros with surplus value on this new deal. Indeed, the reigning AL MVP and three-time batting champ has been worth 14.3 fWAR across the past two seasons alone.

Of course, it’s not a given that Houston’s star second baseman can maintain that level of production through the age of 34. Although his strongest and most notable skill is his penchant for making good contact (with an astonishingly low swinging strike rate) and racking up hits, a large part of his value is tied up in his baserunning. Though last season Altuve stole 32 bases and managed a .339 BABIP on grounders, history says that his speed isn’t likely to stick around past age 30, at least not to that level.

Even as his speed starts to go, however, contact ability and plate discipline (Altuve carries an incredible 10.7% career strikeout rate) are skills that typically tend to age well. And there’s something to be said for the Astros keeping the face of their franchise around through 2024.

It’s not unreasonable to think that Altuve could have earned a larger guarantee if he’d waited to hit the free agent market following the 2019 season. But as with his first extension with the Astros, he’ll essentially sacrifice earnings upside for added financial security… and a whole lot of it, too. The contract ranks as the 31st-largest guarantee in MLB history. He’s now guaranteed life-changing money, with a chance to earn even more when he hits the free agent market again six and a half years from now.

At this point, we want to know your opinion. What do you think of the second Altuve deal from the Astros’ perspective? (Poll link for app users)

What about from Altuve’s perspective? (Poll link for app users)

AL West Notes: Jay, Beltre, Bush, Rangers, Peacock

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The Mariners were linked to Jon Jay back in November, and ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required) reports that Seattle had enough interest to offer Jay a three-year contract.  The two sides didn’t reach an agreement, however, and Jay’s free agent sojourn only ended last week when he signed a one-year, $3MM deal with the Royals.  It’s easy to second-guess Jay’s decision in hindsight, though of course he (like many other free agents) could hardly have expected the market freeze that left several players settling for contracts that fell well below their initial asking prices.  The M’s ended up going in a more unorthodox direction to solve their center field problem, instead acquiring second baseman Dee Gordon from the Marlins and converting him into an outfield role.

Some more news and notes from around the AL West…

  • In a recent appearance on 105.3 The Fan’s Ben And Skin Show (partial transcript from the Dallas Morning News), Adrian Beltre discussed his future both with the Rangers and as a player in general.  The 20-year MLB veteran is taking his career on an annual basis, noting that “I can’t tell you it’s going to be this year or next year or the year after that” when he finally hangs up his glove.  The main factors in Beltre’s decision include his health, his level of production and whether or not he is still on a contender.  Plus, Beltre is seemingly intrigued by the idea of going out on top, saying “It would be easier for me if we won the World Series this year or next year to go home.”  Beltre hopes to achieve that goal in a Rangers uniform, noting that he doesn’t want to be traded, though such a scenario could happen if Texas falls out of contention by the deadline (Beltre is entering the last year of his contract).  If he heads into free agency while still a Ranger, Beltre said “it would make it easy for me” to re-sign with the club if the Rangers promised to make a big push to contend in 2019.
  • The Rangers have decided to keep Matt Bush in the bullpen, manager Jeff Banister told reporters (including MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan).  Bush came into spring camp with the hopes of getting himself into the rotation mix, though the righty will instead be deployed as a setup man and potentially as a multi-inning reliever.  Banister believes Bush is most valuable to Texas in this role, and thus Bush isn’t a candidate to serve as the Rangers’ closer.
  • Brad Peacock may also be ticketed for a multi-inning relief role, as The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan writes that the Astros have used Peacock in two-inning stints in each of his three Spring Training appearances.  Houston places a high value on multi-inning relievers and could theoretically deploy several of their bullpen arms in that fashion, though Kaplan feels Chris Devenski could be in line for more one-inning outings after appearing to tire in the second half of the 2017 season.  Peacock has extra durability as a former starting pitcher and his stuff lends itself well to such a relief role.  He held hitters to just a .420 OPS during his first time through the lineup last season, easily the lowest OPS of any pitcher who made at least 20 starts.

Astros Return Rule 5 Pick Anthony Gose To Rangers

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The Rangers announced today that they received Rule 5 pick Anthony Gose back from the Astros and assigned him to Triple-A Round Rock. He’ll join the Rangers in big league camp as a non-roster player. The Astros reportedly placed the left-hander/outfielder on outright waivers earlier this week.

Gose, a former big league outfielder, had been hoping to make a stacked Astros roster as a reliever. The former top outfield prospect converted to the mound last season after several years of difficulties at plate. Gose was a two-way star as an amateur but was drafted and developed solely as an outfielder. His arm strength from the outfield and his former pitching prowess have translated to the mound to an extent, as he’s reportedly been able to touch triple digits with his fastball.

Gose pitched 10 2/3 innings in Class-A Advanced in the Rangers organization last season and posted a 14-to-6 K/BB ratio in that time. It’s possible that the Rangers will continue to give him a look on the mound, though the team’s exact plans for him remain unclear. Rangers EVP of communications John Blake referenced Gose as an outfielder/left-handed pitcher in announcing the move, so perhaps he’ll continue to work on both elements of his game.

Astros Renew Carlos Correa’s Contract At $1MM

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The Astros have renewed the contract of star shortstop Carlos Correa at $1MM, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). That comes in just shy of the record for a pre-arbitration player, set by Kris Bryant last offseason when the Cubs agreed to a $1.05MM salary. Correa’s $1MM mark ties the previous record holder, Mike Trout, who earned $1MM in 2014 as a pre-arb player before agreeing to his $144MM contract extension the following offseason.

It’s worth noting, though, that the Astros renewed Correa’s contract. That indicates that, in spite of the near-record-setting nature of Correa’s pre-arbitration salary, the two sides did not see eye to eye on his 2018 earnings. Teams can negotiate with their pre-arb players, and the two sides will often agree to terms on a salary — typically within the vicinity of the league minimum for most players but sometimes a few hundred thousand or so greater for higher-profile players that have not yet reached salary arbitration.

However, if the two sides cannot agree to a negotiated salary, then the team can renew the player’s contract at any amount at or above the league minimum. In this instance, the fact that Correa’s contract was renewed could mean that he and his representatives at the Legacy Agency were hoping to set a new record and simply elected to let the team renew the contract.

Certainly, though, it’s nothing new for this player and team. A renewal also occurred in each of the past two seasons. Most notably, the ’Stros gave Correa only the league-minimum salary for the 2017 campaign. Of course, there’s still no real indication whether the failure to agree could hint at underlying discord that might impact future contractual matters.

The deal isn’t a straight MLB contract, it’s also worth noting, per a tweet from Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Houston elected instead to make it a split deal, providing a $267,500 rate of pay in the exceedingly unlikely event that Correa is optioned down. Clearly, as with Correa’s own decision not to agree to the offered amount, the sides have elected to stand on their rights — even if there’s no reasonably anticipated practical difference.

Astros Place Anthony Gose On Outright Waivers

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The Astros have placed lefty Anthony Gose on outright waivers, per Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (Twitter link). That will ultimately open a 40-man spot, though it’s not clear whether the organization has immediate plans for utilizing it.

Gose was taken in the Rule 5 draft back in December, meaning any claiming team would need to retain him on the active roster for all of 2018 in order to keep him permanently. Given his prior MLB experience as an outfielder, he would be arbitration-eligible after the season were that to occur.

If Gose clears waivers, he’ll be offered back to the Rangers, who had signed him to a minors deal last fall. The Texas organization took a low-risk shot despite the fact that Gose had only previously thrown 10 2/3 High-A innings, over which he allowed nine earned runs and six walks but also recorded 14 strikeouts.

Despite the limited track record, the 27-year-old Gose has shown a powerful throwing arm on the hill and could also bring value on the bases and in the outfield. But it seems his interesting time in Astros camp did not make the desired impression. Gose failed to record an out in his only Grapefruit League appearance, issuing walks to all three hitters he faced.

Yuli Gurriel To Undergo Hamate Surgery

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Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel is undergoing surgery today to remove the hook of his left hamate bone, skipper A.J. Hinch told reporters including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter link).

Houston GM Jeff Luhnow says the team expects to be without Gurriel for about five to six weeks, per Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (Twitter links). Clearly, then, the rehab period will delay Gurriel’s start to the 2018 season. In this case, says Luhnow, it was a years-old injury that only just became symptomatic.

While injuries to the hamate — a hand bone near the wrist — are common for hitters, that doesn’t mean they aren’t reasonably significant. Those interested in learning more should check out this detailed examination of the subject from Michael Jong of SB Nation.

That limited recovery time is obviously promising, though hamate injuries have a reputation for sapping a hitter’s power upon his return to action. This interesting look from of SB Nation’s Stuart Wallace suggests, though, that any shorter-term loss of pop does not generally turn into a long-term impediment.

For the ’Stros, it’s perhaps at least preferable for the injury to occur now rather than during the season. Gurriel will still need to serve a five-game suspension, though the injury situation may allow the team to manage that more easily.

Regardless of the specifics, Houston will have to create a fill-in plan. An open-market option seems unlikely with so many internal possibilities. Marwin Gonzalez could step in at first, with the team also giving some opportunities to Tyler White, A.J. Reed, or J.D. Davis.

Though clearly the preference would be for the 33-year-old Gurriel to pick up where he left off in 2017, the Astros likely won’t mind the idea of getting a longer look at some of those players. And any hit to the team’s expectations will be minimal. While Gurriel produced a strong .299/.332/.486 slash line with 18 home runs last year, he’s not exactly a top-end hitter as a first baseman. (A third bagger by trade, Gurriel has been pushed to the other corner by Alex Bregman.)

Injury Notes: Gurriel, Frazier, Gausman, Stroman, Thornburg, Eaton

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The Astros have shipped first baseman Yuli Gurriel to Houston so his injured hand can be evaluated, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic reports (Twitter link). At this point, the situation is more or less a mystery, with no real indication how the issue arose or just what the club is concerned about. Clearly, though, the team’s training staff has found cause to get a closer look from a specialist.

Here’s more on some injury situations from around the game:

  • Yankees outfielder Clint Frazier has been diagnosed with a concussion, tweets MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Frazier made a leaping catch in yesterday’s Grapefruit League game against the Pirates and stumbled a bit before falling backwards and hitting his head against the base of the left-field wall (video link). Manager Aaron Boone said Frazier will be down for “a few days” and acknowledged the seemingly optimistic nature of that timeline. Frazier is far from a lock to make the Opening Day roster in New York with Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and Jacoby Ellsbury all on the roster, but he remains a key potential long-term piece for the Yanks.
  • It seems that Orioles righty Kevin Gausman has largely shaken off a home-plate collision yesterday, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. The young starter, who is a key factor in the team’s hopes for the coming season, says he “feel[s] pretty good” on the whole despite slamming into Tigers youngster Jeimer Candelario. For the time being, at least, Gausman is expected to take the ball for his next scheduled spring outing.
  • The outlook is at least a bit more worrisome for Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman. Per MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm, shoulder inflammation is holding Stroman back. Though he has already been cleared by an MRI of structural concerns, Stroman will rest up in hopes of moving past a problem that has evidently been going on for a few weeks. The key Jays hurler says he’s hoping to be fully ramped up for “the very beginning of the start of the season,” even if it’s not Opening Day, though surely the organization will proceed with caution.
  • The Red Sox will welcome reliever Tyler Thornburg back to the hill for the first time since he underwent surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. A bullpen session is just one of many steps back, of course, and Thornburg still has some hurdles to clear. He has yet to pitch competitively for the Boston organization (excepting brief spring action last year) since coming over in a trade in advance of the 2017 season.
  • Indications are that Nationals outfielder Adam Eaton is largely progressing well after a long layoff for a torn ACL. As Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes, though, Eaton has yet to appear in game action. That appears to be less a reflection of Eaton’s surgically repaired joint than it is a planned effort to build him up deliberately. “We’re going to take it and be methodical and do it right for the first time and make sure I’m overcooked, so to speak, before I go out there.” While it’s surely tempting to max out Eaton’s reps after a lost season, skipper Davey Martinez emphasized the primary goal is to have Eaton at full speed come Opening Day.
  • The rival Mets are reporting shoulder and back soreness for Yoenis Cespedes and Jacob deGrom, respectively, but those don’t seem to be real concerns at this point, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports. However, the New York organization is likely to hold back first baseman Dominic Smith for a while after he was diagnosed with a strained quad. He already seemed to face a difficult task of cracking the Opening Day roster, so this setback is not likely to help the cause. (New reliever Anthony Swarzak just left his relief appearance with an apparent calf injury, as Mike Puma of the New York Post was among those to tweet, though details are sparse at this time.)

Astros Prospect Forrest Whitley Suspended For 50 Games

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Astros pitching prospect Forrest Whitley has been suspended for fifty games, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Twitter link). The ban is drug-related, per the report, though it is not clear just what improper substance Whitley was deemed to have used.

Whitley, a 20-year-old right-hander, greatly elevated his stock in 2017. Indeed, many outlets now consider him one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball, with only the uniquely situated Shohei Ohtani drawing greater plaudits. Baseball America, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN.com, and Fangraphs all rated Whitley within the top ten overall pre-MLB players in the game in their most recent rankings.

Typically, fifty-game bans are handed out for drugs of abuse or amphetamines rather than performance-enhancing substances. In this case, Chuck Miketinac of FOX San Antonio says (Twitter link) a source told him that Whitley took an “unknown stimulant” to help keep him awake on a drive. The youngster intends to challenge the suspension, per that report. JJ Cooper of Baseball America notes (Twitter links) that the official release on the suspension does not follow the typical template utilized either for drugs of abuse or PED bans and also stands out because it does not state there was a positive test.

Clearly, there’s still quite a lot that is not known about the situation. Whitley himself released a statement through his agent (via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, on Twitter) in which he accepted responsibility and apologized. Astros GM Jeff Luhnow says he’s disappointed in what has transpired but also says he believes Whitley will learn from the situation. (Video via Twitter, also from McTaggart.)

Whitley, a 2016 first-rounder, reached the Double-A last year, compiling 92 1/3 innings of 2.83 ERA ball with 13.9 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 across three levels of the minors. He will be eligible to return around the end of May and will likely work out in the meantime at the organization’s spring facilities, per Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (Twitter links).

NL Central Notes: Russell, Cain, Freese, Moran

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Addison Russell was made available in various Cubs trade talks over the offseason. a rival official told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  It should be noted that “made available” is quite different than openly shopping a player, as it isn’t any surprise that the Cubs at least explored the possibility of moving Russell or other notable names over the course of the winter.  Theo Epstein even said during his end-of-season chat with reporters that his team would consider trading from areas of depth to address other needs, though it’s interesting to note that the Cubs have yet to make any trades this offseason, instead turning to free agency to add starting and relief pitching.  Russell, for his part, considers Chicago’s position player depth to be “a beautiful thing,” and is pleased to still be in a Cubs uniform.

Here’s more from around the NL Central…

  • Lorenzo Cain was very intrigued by the idea of once again playing for the Brewers and they became his top choice in free agency, the outfielder tells Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.  In fact, “once I saw their interest was for real,” Cain said the Brewers became his only choice for contract talks.  “Honestly, when we engaged Milwaukee, my focus was on them the entire time,” Cain said.  “We told them we were only going to negotiate with them at the time. That’s the way I wanted it….we continued to push forward and found a way to get it done.  I had a number I wanted to get to, and Milwaukee got to that number.”  Cain ended up signing a five-year, $80MM contract with the Brew Crew, and though “some other teams jumped in toward the end” of negotiations, Cain “knew [Milwaukee] would be the most comfortable fit for me.  I don’t need to be in a big city.  I played for a small-market team in K.C.  I get more joy out of beating big-market teams.  It puts a smile on my face.”
  • David Freese had some frank opinions about the Pirates’ recent lack of success, telling reporters (including Elizabeth Bloom of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) that more “urgency” and “accountability” is needed within the Bucs’ clubhouse.  “The last two years, we haven’t done as well as we could have because of our environment,” Freese said.  “That’s what I think.  I walk in every day, and it’s not in the air.  The demand to win just hasn’t been in the air.  That’s what you need.  You can say all you want about how we’re going to win, this and that, but if you don’t walk in and you don’t feel it and you don’t see it in people’s eyes, it’s just not going to work.”  The piece is well worth a full read for a different take on the Pirates’ struggles, as Bloom notes that Freese’s criticisms differed from recent comments made by Josh Harrison and Sean Rodriguez that indicated more frustration towards the front office.
  • Colin Moran suffered a concussion and a facial fracture after a fouling a ball into his left eye last July, and it is quite possible that the injury changed the course of the young infielder’s career.  Moran was dealt to the Pirates last month as part of the Gerrit Cole trade, and Astros GM Jeff Luhnow tells Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that Moran might still be an Astro today had he gotten a longer chance to perform last summer, rather than being sidelined just two games into a midseason call-up.  “I think he would have hit .300, I think he would have hit for power,” Luhnow said.  “We might not have traded him because we might have wanted to figure out a way to keep him on our club.”  Interestingly, it’s also possible to speculate that a healthy and productive Moran would’ve been traded from Houston much sooner, as Moran was reportedly involved in the Astros’ talks with the Orioles about Zach Britton at the July trade deadline (though an injured Houston pitching prospect was the primary reason the Britton deal was scuttled).

Collin McHugh Wins Arbitration Hearing

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Right-hander Collin McHugh won his arbitration hearing against the Astros, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (on Twitter). He’ll earn the $5MM salary that he filed as opposed to the $4.55MM sum that was submitted by the team (as can be seen in MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker). McHugh, a client of Moye Sports Associates, receives a $1.15MM raise on last year’s $3.85MM salary after an injury-shortened 2017 campaign.

The 30-year-old McHugh may have lost his rotation spot when the Astros acquired Gerrit Cole earlier this winter, but he’ll still work as a starter this spring. If each of Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Cole, Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton remain healthy, then McHugh could open the year as a well-compensated long reliever/spot starter. He’d also be the team’s first line of defense in the event of an injury to one of the top five starters.

Of course, there’s also the possibility that McHugh opens the season in a rotation other than Houston’s. McHugh has seen his name pop up in trade rumors in recent weeks as clubs like the Orioles, Twins and Brewers continue to hunt for rotation upgrades before Opening Day.

McHugh missed much of the 2017 season on the disabled list but worked to a 3.55 ERA with 8.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 in 63 1/3 innings when he was healthy enough to take the field. Since being acquired by the Astros, he’s logged a solid 3.70 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a 43 percent ground-ball rate through 606 1/3 innings (102 starts).

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