AL West Notes: Astros, Rangers, Athletics
Astros owner Jim Crane said Friday that the team’s still interested in re-signing free agents Dallas Keuchel and Marwin Gonzalez, and president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow addressed that Saturday. The Astros “would, of course, love” to have those two back, Luhnow admitted, though he declined further comment on their futures. Luhnow did, however, reveal “there is a decent likelihood” the Astros will make another move, perhaps to pick up starting pitching, relief or position player help, and that he wouldn’t hesitate to trade top prospects to improve the Astros’ rotation. “I did it twice already. And I’m prepared to do it again,” said Luhnow, who swung blockbuster trades for right-handers Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole from 2017-18 and whose club has lost fellow starters Keuchel, Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr. since last season ended. The Astros haven’t made any significant trades yet this offseason, though it hasn’t been for lack of effort. They’ve finished second or third in multiple deals, according to Luhnow, who noted, “We’ve tried and we’ll continue to try” (Twitter links via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).
The latest on a couple of Houston’s division rivals…
- The Rangers have spent big in the past, and 26-year-old superstars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado remain free agents as February approaches, potentially making either a fit for the club. However, Texas is not in position to make a splash on the open market this winter, general manager Jon Daniels told TR Sullivan of MLB.com and other reporters Saturday. “We are probably a year away from adding cornerstone-type pieces,” Daniels said. “Our plan all along has been to get the staff in place, get this young group in place, develop them, put in our new systems and as we move into the new ballpark, kind of change the focus.” The “young group” Daniels referenced includes Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor and Jose Leclerc, among others, Sullivan reports. While any of those players could be trade chips, it seems the current plan is to keep them around as the Rangers gear up for their move to Globe Life Field in 2020.
- Even after signing Mike Fiers and Marco Estrada in free agency, the Athletics may land another starter before spring training, according to general manager David Forst (via Melissa Lockard of The Athletic; subscription required). The A’s were quite reliant on utilizing the opener strategy in 2018, though Forst suggested both Fiers and Estrada will continue as traditional starters. As of now, those two are projected to join any of Daniel Mengden, Paul Blackburn, Chris Bassitt, Aaron Brooks, Frankie Montas or even high-end prospect Jesus Luzardo in the A’s season-opening rotation, per Forst. Oakland also has several rehabbing hurlers – including the trio of Sean Manaea, Jharel Cotton and A.J. Puk – and they’re all making progress, as Lockard details. When healthy, some of those pitchers might factor into the A’s bullpen, a group that could pick up another left-hander, Forst revealed. The only southpaw reliever on their 40-man roster is Ryan Buchter, who excelled in 2018. Securing further catching depth is on the team’s radar, too, executive vice president Billy Beane stated (via Chris Haft of MLB.com). While the A’s do have a quality catcher prospect in Sean Murphy, who could debut in 2019, their behind-the-plate situation at the major league level is uninspiring. Their only 40-man catchers are Josh Phegley and free-agent signing Chris Herrmann, and those two haven’t done much in the majors.
- Meanwhile, although Athletics outfield prospect and ex-Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray declared for the 2019 NFL Draft earlier this month, the A’s expect him to report to camp. “There’s been nothing from their side that suggests otherwise,” Beane said Saturday (via Haft). Murray, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, may end up as a first-round pick in the NFL, which would seem to make it a long shot that he’d ever suit up for the A’s.
AL Notes: Verlander, Correa, Hahn, ChiSox, Elias, Font
Buzz from around the American League…
- There haven’t been any extension talks between Justin Verlander and the Astros front office, the right-hander told reporters, including MLBcom’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter and video link). “I don’t know what their organizational plans are. It’s something I wouldn’t be opposed to….we’ll see what happens,” Verlander said. It isn’t necessarily surprising to see a lack of negotiations between the two sides at this point, since most teams wait until their offseason business is complete and Spring Training begins before turning focus to extending in-house talent. Still, there is some urgency in Verlander’s case, given that 2019 is his last guaranteed year under contract (he agreed to waive a possible vesting option for 2020 as part of his trade to Houston in August 2017). Verlander is coming off one of his finest seasons, a campaign that saw him finish second in AL Cy Young Award voting after leading the league in both K/BB rate (a career-best 7.84) and strikeouts (290, another career high) while posting a 2.52 ERA over 214 innings. There certainly doesn’t appear to be much evidence that Verlander is slowing down, even though he turns 36 in February.
- There also haven’t been any long-term contract talks between Carlos Correa and the Astros, the shortstop tells the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome. Persistent back problems limited Correa to just 468 plate appearances in 2018 and a .239/.323/.405 slash line, easily the worst of his four MLB seasons. “For me, right now is not the time to talk about [an extension],” Correa said. “Obviously coming off the injury last year and the down year. I’m looking forward to bouncing back this year, be the player I am and we go from there.” The first step is an arbitration hearing between Correa and the Astros on January 31, with Correa submitting a $5MM salary figure for 2019 and the team counting with a $4.25MM offer. This is Correa’s first of three years of arbitration eligibility, so there is still plenty of time for the two sides to eventually work out a longer-term deal once Correa feels he’s coming off a better platform year.
- White Sox GM Rick Hahn said he would “be personally disappointed” if the team didn’t sign Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, though he told MLB.com’s Scott Merkin and other reporters that the mere pursuit of such top-tier stars represents a new stage of the team’s rebuild. “The fact that we are now sitting here in a potential position — or at least in a position where, if we don’t convert, people are going to be disappointed — I think is an important step forward for this organization,” Hahn said.
- The Orioles aren’t likely to sign any free agents to multi-year contracts this winter, GM Mike Elias told Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com and other media, and the team could avoid any Major League contracts whatsoever for free agents. With the O’s in the early stages of a rebuild, the team wasn’t much of a candidate to be making any long-term commitments, as the focus will instead be on giving time to young players. That said, Elias didn’t close the door on any possibilities for his club, noting “we’re looking for ways to be opportunistic and true with the players that are left unsigned right now.”
- Rays right-hander Wilmer Font has recently started to throw fastball-only bullpen sessions and expects to be ready for Spring Training, he tells MLB.com’s Juan Toribio. Font suffered a lat strain in late June that wound up being a season-ending injury, rather than an eight-week DL stint as originally projected. The injury brought an abrupt end to a very promising start for Font as a Ray, since the righty had a 1.67 ERA over his first 27 innings for Tampa after the club acquired him from Oakland in May. A healthy Font would give the Rays yet another intriguing pitching weapon, able of a traditional bullpen role or perhaps again working as an “opener.”
Astros Owner Jim Crane On Keuchel, Marwin, Free Agency
Astros owner Jim Crane gave some interesting comments today regarding his organization’s remaining plans for the winter and the state of the market at large, as MLB.com’s Alyson Footer of MLB.com reports on Twitter. It’s tough to tell the degree of interest, but Crane certainly seemed to indicate that the organization has some realistic inclination to bring back one or more of its recent players who remain available on the open market.
“We’ve got a couple guys that were here last year that are a possibility to be back here [this] year,” said Crane. “We hope that happens.” He went on to specifically cite southpaw Dallas Keuchel and utilityman Marwin Gonzalez, both of whom are among the most-accomplished players who have yet to find new teams. Calling both Keuchel and Gonzalez “great players and great for the franchise,” Crane suggested there was at least a chance still of a reunion. “Maybe something will work out there,” he said, “who knows?”
It’s certainly arguable that both of those outgoing free agents still make sense on the roster. Between Keuchel and Charlie Morton, the Astros saw a lot of innings walk out the door. While there are options on hand to fill them, pursuit of another starter has long seemed sensible. It’s a bit of a tougher match with Gonzalez, particularly now that the Houston front office has acquired a potential replacement piece in Aledmys Diaz, but perhaps he’d still be of interest at the right price.
The club also bid adieu to several other veterans this winter, a few of whom have already signed elsewhere (including Morton). Backstop Martin Maldonado, southpaw reliever Tony Sipp, and DH Evan Gattis, however, all remain available after wrapping up their contracts with the ‘Stros. Among them, Sipp seems to represent the most sensible roster fit, though there’s no reason to think at this point that he’s a particular target.
However things shake out on Keuchel and Gonzalez, Crane’s comments didn’t admit of much of an opening for the team to pursue free agent market’s two biggest stars — or much of an appetite for any true blockbuster contracts in the future. Stating that the market is “a little bottled up” due to the ongoing presence of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, Crane went on to offer some revealing thoughts on the state of the hot stove economy and his own organization’s theoretical leanings.
“I think that teams are very focused on value,” said Crane of the business-wide approach to free agency. “I don’t know that you’ll see many more ten-year deals in this business anymore because the analytics are so good and a lot of those deals never work.”
The notion of value as an overriding concern — increasingly treated as something of an actuarial assessment of risk — is hardly a novel concept. But it’s interesting to see an owner not only come forward with that viewpoint, but to characterize it as an industry-wide phenomenon and acknowledge a particular practical ramification of such an approach.
Beyond those somewhat eyebrow-raising aspects of Crane’s comment, it’s also an interesting point to consider. It’s certainly possible to imagine decade-long deals that make sense, particularly for especially youthful players, even if it’s to be expected that the bulk of the on-field performance contributions will be reaped in such a contract’s earlier seasons. Beyond that, nobody really needed analytics to tell them of the concerns with guaranteeing so much money for so many years to one necessarily aging, potentially injured player. After all, the teams that have done so in the past did not tack on years and dollars because they preferred to; they simply did what it took to get the player in an open bidding situation.
Such elite players remain highly prized, of course, but the still-deepening analytical revolution — which has both recognized and helped usher in an influx of cheaply-acquired, increasingly well-prepared, league-minimum-earning players along with a youthened aging curve — has pointed to cheaper ways to maximize roster output while highlighting the financial risks of clogging future payrolls. The resulting reductions in demand have made it increasingly difficult for free agents to squeeze extra guaranteed seasons from clubs.
It’ll be interesting to see how things transpire this winter, with a pair of obvious candidates for extremely lengthy deals still waiting to sign them. While the Astros evidently will not be dabbling in such corners of the market, they’ll still be working to improve the roster in other ways — perhaps even by looking at the second tier of remaining free agents, which includes Keuchel, Gonzales, and others. “Every day we’re looking at opportunities,” says Crane.
Astros Still Interested In Dallas Keuchel
It’s too early to count out a reunion between Dallas Keuchel and the Astros, as Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link) that Houston continues to have interest in the free agent left-hander. We haven’t heard much connecting Keuchel and the Astros this winter, though back in late December, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart speculated that the Astros could reconsider signing Keuchel if he was still on the market by late January, and if the team hadn’t made any other notable pitching signings.
This is exactly the situation both sides find themselves in, four weeks later, and it’s fair to wonder if there could be more than a “slim” chance (as McTaggart described things) of Keuchel again donning a Houston uniform in 2019. There hasn’t been much recent news on Keuchel, as it could be that his market is being held up until Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado both sign contracts. Of the teams who have been linked to Keuchel this offseason, at least three (the Phillies, Nationals, and Padres) have also had interest in one or both of Harper and Machado. Of course, Washington could be out of the running for Keuchel regardless of what happens with Harper, as the Nats have already augmented their rotation by signing Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez.
Beyond those three teams, the Reds, Rangers, Brewers, Angels, Braves, and Blue Jays have all reportedly had some level of interest in Keuchel at certain points this offseason. This group could all still be fits on paper, though Texas, Cincinnati, and Los Angeles have all preferred to add shorter-term arms to their rotations. Keuchel, meanwhile, was still looking for at least a five-year contract as of last month.
With all this in mind, there seems to be some room for the Astros to re-emerge as a potential landing spot. Keuchel is represented by Scott Boras, who has negotiated some creative contracts for his pitching clients in recent months, and thus could find some common ground if Houston is wary of making a big multi-year commitment to a 31-year-old southpaw. Since Keuchel rejected a qualifying offer, the Astros are currently in line for a compensatory draft pick if signs elsewhere, but the club could decide that foregoing that extra pick is worth it if Keuchel could be re-signed at an acceptable price.
The Astros’ pitching staff was already expected to take a hit this winter with Keuchel and Charlie Morton (now with the Rays) hitting free agency, but they lost another arm in early November when Lance McCullers underwent Tommy John surgery. While the one-two combo of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole gives Houston plenty of quality at the front of the rotation, the back end is less certain. Collin McHugh is returning to starting after a year in the bullpen, youngsters Josh James and Framber Valdez have less than a year of MLB experience between them, and some highly-touted arms in the farm system (namely top prospect Forrest Whitley and righty J.B. Bukauskas) are entirely unproven at the big league level. Adding a seasoned, playoff-tested veteran like Keuchel would go a long way towards reinforcing the staff in a year that the Astros hope to again contend for a World Series title.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Santana, Marlins, Happ, Gray, Reds, Perez, Boras
Carlos Santana in a Marlins uniform? Surprising at it may seem, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) reports that Miami was in talks with the Mariners about the veteran first baseman before Seattle flipped Santana to the Indians as part of a three-team deal with the Rays. It’s been a quiet offseason for the Marlins as they continue their rebuild and weigh J.T. Realmuto trade offers, though since their past fire-sale moves have cleared a lot of future payroll space, there have been indications that the Fish could use this room to potentially to add future trade chips. The Marlins had interest in free agent D.J. LeMahieu, and Santana is owed $35MM over the next two seasons.
Between the Marlins’ flexibility and Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto’s creativity in swinging deals, any number of scenarios could have been floated. The most obvious offer could have been a “buying a prospect” type of trade, where the Marlins absorb a big chunk of Santana’s salary if the Mariners added some minor leaguers along in the deal. If not a prospect, perhaps the M’s could have included a Major League player along with Santana in a package to Miami, potentially a needed reliever or a left-handed bat. Whatever was discussed, Seattle ended up preferring the return from the three-team deal (a Competitive Balance Round draft pick and $10MM in salary relief), though the Marlins are certainly emerging as a possible trade partner for teams trying to unload an ill-fitting contract.
Here’s more from Rosenthal’s latest set of notes from around baseball…
- The Reds were willing to offer J.A. Happ a three-year contract and give him more in guaranteed money than the $34MM he received from the Yankees in a two-year deal (with a $17MM vesting option for 2021). New York’s offer, however, included a higher average annual value than Cincinnati’s offer. Rosenthal speculates that Happ could have based on his decision on a desire to return to a contender, or perhaps the fact that pitchers are generally wary of the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.
- The Happ situation could be a reason the Reds are looking to work out an extension with Sonny Gray before acquiring him from the Yankees, a tactic that Rosenthal says has surprised some rival agents and executives. While Gray’s success outside of Yankee Stadium has made him a popular bounce-back candidate on another team, Rosenthal wonders if the right-hander might want to lock in a multi-year payday now in the wake of his 2018 struggles. Gray might welcome a chance to avoid a free agent market that has become less friendly to veterans, and Cincinnati offers him a familiar face in pitching coach Derek Johnson (Gray’s former coach at Vanderbilt).
- Rosenthal’s piece also offers a broader overview of the Reds‘ offseason, which has seen the club try to make significant upgrades even while still looking like postseason longshots in the competitive NL Central. Cincinnati has been willing to trade some second-tier prospects to add established Major League players, while resisting moving any of its top minor league talents (such as Nick Senzel or Taylor Trammell).
- The Astros and Mariners both had interest in left-hander Martin Perez before Perez agreed to join the Twins yesterday. Perez picked Minnesota since he wanted to be a starting pitcher next season, which likely gave the Twins the edge over the Mets, though the other suitors might have had more room in their rotation. The Astros are thin on pitching, though since Houston plans to contend next season, it might have been a taller order to assign a starting spot to a pitcher who struggled as Perez did in 2018. The Mariners have a full rotation plus Justus Sheffield waiting in the wings at Triple-A, though more room could have made for Perez — Felix Hernandez‘s health and future as a starting pitcher is questionable, and Mike Leake has been the subject of trade rumors this winter.
- Scott Boras has been vocal about what he sees as a lack of competitiveness around baseball, and has made several suggestions (though not yet officially to the league or players’ union) about ways to better motivate teams to win games — and, of course, have more incentive to spend money on Boras clients in free agency. The list includes such concepts as extra playoff teams, cash bonuses to teams that reach the postseason, and draft pick compensation for teams that sign a veteran free agent or win a draft lottery for passing various wins thresholds. Boras also proposes an anti-tanking rule that would prevent teams from receiving a top-five draft pick if they win 68 or fewer games. “Our system is like a restaurant saying, ‘If I can’t be an elite, fine-dining restaurant, I am no longer going to make a good hamburger. I’m just going to give poor meat to my clientele,’ ” Boras said. “Which results in fewer patrons, a downturn in (overall major-league) attendance three years running.”
Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League
The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed at 1pm ET yesterday, meaning over the next few hours, there will be a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track today’s minor settlements from the American League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.
It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.
As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…
Today’s Updates
- Yankees 1B Greg Bird will make $1.2 MM next season, per Bob Nightengale on Twitter.
- The controversial Roberto Osuna will make $6.5MM next season, per Feinsand. Teammate Jake Marisnick, who again scuffled in ’18 after a promising 2017, will make $2.2125MM.
- Per Mark Feinsand on Twitter, A’s lefty Sean Manaea $3.15MM in what’s sure to be an injury-marred 2019.
- Hard-throwing reliever Mychal Givens will make $2.15MM, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), with additional incentives for making the All-Star team or placing in the Top-3 for the Rivera/Hoffman Reliever of the Year Awards, added MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
- The Mariners agreed on a $1.95MM deal with outfielder Domingo Santana, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). Santana is the second and last of the Mariners’ arbitration-eligible players.
- The Angels agreed to contracts with a pair of players yesterday, per Maria Torres of the LA Times (via Twitter). Reliever Hansel Robles signed for $1.4MM. Robles threw 36 1/3 innings of 2.97 ERA baseball after the Angels claimed him off waivers from the Mets in June. Luis Garcia, acquired via trade from the Phillies this winter, signed for $1.675MM.
- The Tigers and reliever Shane Greene settled on $4MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
- The Yankees reached an agreement with Sonny Gray for $7.5MM, per Nightengale. Gray, of course, has been involved trade rumors most of the winter, but for the time being, he stands to play a role in the Yankee pen while providing insurance for the rotation.
- Didi Gregorius has also come to an agreement with the Yankees on a one-year, $11.75MM deal in his final season before free agency, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).
- New Yankee James Paxton signed for $8.575, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Paxton is under contract for the 2020 season as well.
- The Houston Astros came to an agreement with Collin McHugh for $5.8MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). McHugh could be moving back into the rotation after a stellar season in the pen, either way this will be his final season of arb eligibility before hitting the open market.
- Jonathan Villar comes away with $4.825MM for what will be his first full season in Baltimore, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
Earlier Updates
Astros File Arbitration Figures For Carlos Correa, Chris Devenski
The Houston Astros submitted their arbitration bids yesterday after signing fellow arb-eligibles Lance McCullers Jr., Will Harris and Brad Peacock to one-year deals. Houston failed to reach agreements with shortstop Carlos Correa, starter Gerrit Cole and swingman Chris Devenski. All three, at least for the time being, will head towards arbitration hearings to determine their 2019 salaries.
Correa is coming off a bit of a down year, while injuries have kept him to no more than 110 games in each of the last two seasons. He filed for a $5MM salary for 2019, while the Astros countered at $4.25MM. MLBTR projected a $4.625MM contract for Correa in this, his first year of arbitration. Both sides are surely hoping for a healthy bounceback campaign from Correa, a core piece of their championship winning club of 2017 who struggled to the tune of .239/.323/.405 last season. Of course, most clubs would be pretty thrilled to get a 101 wRC+ from a 23-year-old shortstop.
Devenski, meanwhile, filed for $1.65MM, with Houston countering at $1.4MM – the same number MLBTR projected for the righty. Devenski has primarily come out of the pen for Houston, pitching to a 2.74 ERA over his three major-league seasons. Last year was the worst campaign of Devenski’s three in the majors, though he was still serviceable in 47 1/3 innings, which included one start (4.18 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 4.01 xFIP). Like Correa, Devenski has two further seasons of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency after 2021.
As reported yesterday, Cole filed at $13.5MM, while the Astros countered at $11.425MM. The rather large difference of $2.075MM is understandable given this will be Cole’s last time through arbitration before hitting free agency. He had a stellar 2018 in his first year with the Astros, 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 12.4 K/9, a rather ridiculous number across 200 1/3 innings. No doubt it was a tremendous season, good for 5.3 rWAR, a far cry better than the 2.3 rWAR he accrued per season in Pittsburgh, which definitely complicates the valuation process for all parties.
There is, of course, still time for Houston to forego arbitration with Correa/Cole/Devenski, though the common “file and trial” practice means teams typically stop negotiating one-year deals at this juncture. It is not uncommon for parties to negotiate long-term deals during this period.
Arbitration figures for Correa and Devenski was first posted by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Cole’s figures were reported yesterday by Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).
Unresolved 2019 Arbitration Cases
Yesterday’s arbitration deadline wasn’t a firm date for agreeing to terms. Rather, it was the end of the period to negotiate before submitting numbers for possible hearings. Negotiations can continue thereafter, but teams and players will now have to defend their submission numbers if they can’t bridge the gap before a hearing. Baseball arb panels simply pick one side’s number; that aspect of the process is designed to force the parties to the bargaining table.
[RELATED: MLBTR Arbitration Projections; MLBTR Arbitration Tracker]
Here’s what we know thus far about the still-unresolved cases:
Today’s Updates
- The Yankees have yet to come to a deal with ace starter Luis Severino, and they may be heading to arbitration. The Yanks have submitted their bid at $4.4MM, while Severino has asked for $5.25MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
- Tommy Pham and the Rays have submitted their numbers for arbitration, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Pham filed at $4.1MM while the Rays submitted a bid of $3.5MM. Pham has had no problem expressing his honest opinion about the Rays fanbase of late, and it will be interesting to see if he gets an equal portion of honest feedback in return in his arbitration hearing.
- The Oakland A’s and their closer Blake Treinen have both submitted their numbers, with the team coming in at $5.6MM while Treinen files for $6.4MM, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). It’s not a shock to see these sides far apart, given Treinen’s remarkable 2018 and how far above his usual standard of production last season’s numbers fell.
- Washington Nationals filed at $1.725MM for newcomer Kyle Barraclough, who counters at $2MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). The former Marlin was acquired in an uncommonly early offseason trade that sent international bonus pool money the Marlins’ way.
- The Diamondbacks have only one player they did not reach an agreement with, lefty reliever T.J. McFarland. The Dbacks submitted a bid of $1.275MM, while McFarland is asking for $1.675MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
- Alex Wood submitted $9.65MM for his 2019 salary, while his new club the Cincinnati Reds countered at $8.7MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Wood will be a free agent at season’s end.
- The Detroit Tigers reached agreements with all of their arbitration eligible players except for right-handed starter Michael Fulmer. Fulmer comes in at $3.4MM with the team countering at $2.8MM, the difference being 600K, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
- Ryan Tepera has filed for $1.8MM while the Blue Jays submitted their bid at $1.525MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Tepera has been a reliable bullpen arm for the Jays through his first four seasons. He has two more seasons of arbitration remaining, set to reach free agency in advance of the 2022 season.
- Reserve outfielder Michael A. Taylor and the Washington Nationals are a 250K apart, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Seems like a rather small sum to quibble over in the grand scheme of things, but every cent counts right now in Washington, it seems. Taylor submitted a bid of $3.5MM, with the Nats countering at $3.25MM.
Earlier Updates
- Rockies star Nolan Arenado is headed for a record arb salary, unsurprisingly. The question is by how much. He has filed at a whopping $30MM, with the club countering at $24MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Even the lower figure would represent a record. It doesn’t seem as if the sides will go to a high-stakes hearing on this one; Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweets that the odds are good they’ll find common ground. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected Arenado to earn $26.1MM, though he also explained that it’s not hard to see that number swaying in either direction based upon a close examination of the (few relevant) comps.
- Despite a monster 2018 season, Phillies righty Aaron Nola isn’t seeking to set a record first-year arb starter salary. (That belongs to Dallas Keuchel, at $7.25MM, when he was coming off of a Cy Young season.) Nola did file at a hefty $6.75MM, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (via Twitter), while the club entered just $4.5MM. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Keuchel salary represented a sea change for young starters, but few others have tested the process since. MLBTR’s projection system spit out a $6.6MM figure for Nola.
- Righty Gerrit Cole filed at $13.5MM, while the Astros countered at $11.425MM, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Teammates Carlos Correa and Chris Devenski have also yet to agree to terms. MLBTR projected Cole to earn $13.1MM in his final arb season, Correa to check in at $5.1MM in his first arb year, and Devenski to take home $1.4MM his first time through the process.
- Indians righty Trevor Bauer is seeking a $13MM payday, while the club will argue instead for $11MM, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). The Cleveland org has long utilized a file-and-trial approach on a case-by-case basis. It’s not totally clear whether that’ll be the approach here, but as Hoynes notes, the sides did go to a hearing already last year. (Bauer won.) MLBTR projected a $11.6MM payday; Swartz also explained why he thought the model was likely in the right ballpark for Bauer in a detailed post.
- Passan provides a list of other players who have yet to agree to terms and who could therefore still end up before a panel. There are fifteen in total, including those already noted above as well as Kyle Barraclough and Michael Taylor (Nationals), Michael Fulmer (Tigers), T.J. McFarland (Diamondbacks), Tommy Pham (Rays), Luis Severino (Yankees), Ryan Tepera (Blue Jays), Blake Treinen (Athletics), and Alex Wood (Reds).
Alex Bregman Undergoes Arthroscopic Elbow Surgery
The Astros announced Friday that third baseman Alex Bregman underwent arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his right elbow earlier today. Bregman is expected to be limited at the start of Spring Training but ready for full duty by Opening Day.
Bregman, 24, made his first All-Star team in 2018 and finished fifth in American League MVP voting after hitting .286/.394/.532 with 31 home runs in 705 plate appearances for the Astros. The former No. 2 overall draft pick walked more often (96 times) than he struck out (85) — a rare and remarkable feat in today’s game.
In the event of an unexpected setback in Bregman’s recovery, the Astros do have Tyler White as an option to fill in at the hot corner. The 28-year-old White has more than 2000 innings of minor league experience at third base, so while he’s appeared in just three games there at the MLB level, the ‘Stros would presumably feel comfortable playing him there on a short-term basis. First baseman Yuli Gurriel is no stranger to third base, either.
Still, with Marwin Gonzalez hitting free agency and the recent trade of J.D. Davis to the Mets, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see the Astros add a veteran capable of playing third base on a minor league contract in the coming weeks, just to create a bit of additional depth at the position.
Marlins Reportedly Engaged In “Substantive” Realmuto Trade Talks
Now that Yasmani Grandal has agreed to terms with the Brewers, the Marlins are ramping up trade talks surrounding J.T. Realmuto and are in “substantive discussions” with six teams, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Frisaro pegs the Dodgers, Braves, Astros, Rays, Padres and Reds as the six teams still in the mix for Realmuto. Frisaro further tweets that the Dodgers “may be [the] most motivated” to land Realmuto of the six current suitors.
As one would expect, the report indicates that Miami’s asking price remains extremely high — at least one elite prospect and, in some cases, a big league catcher with some MLB experience already under his belt. For the six clubs in question, the Dodgers (Austin Barnes), Astros (Max Stassi), Padres (Austin Hedges) and Rays (Michael Perez) would best fit that billing. The Reds, too, have Tucker Barnhart as a catcher with MLB experience, though he’s signed through 2021 (plus a 2022 option) as part of a $16MM extension. He’s previously been rumored as a potential piece in talks with the Marlins, but while his salary isn’t exactly prohibitive, it’d be more logical to see Miami pursue younger, pre-arbitration options who are not yet eligible for arbitration. None of the aforementioned catchers, of course, would be a centerpiece to the deal but could give the Marlins a near-term replacement while they hope for higher-end talent to emerge from their system.
When and whether anything more significant comes to fruition remains to be seen, but the timing of the report certainly makes sense. Now that Grandal is no longer an option for teams around the league who are in the market for a catcher, the Marlins can legitimately pitch Realmuto as the primary difference-maker available. As shown in MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker, light-hitting defensive specialist Martin Maldonado is the top remaining free agent. Pirates backstop Francisco Cervelli is an option on the trade market, but he’s earning north of $11MM next season, would be a one-year rental and has some concerning recent issues with concussions.
All six of the rumored suitors have deep farm systems that also feature high-end talent, with each of the bunch possessing multiple prospects currently ranked among the game’s 50 best minor leaguers (per both MLB.com and Fangraphs). However, teams throughout the league are increasingly reluctant to part with top-tier minor league talent — particularly when the prospective trade partner is also seeking a controllable MLB-level asset in return, as the Marlins appear to be doing in Realmuto discussions.