- The Astros have successfully weathered a slew of rotation injuries of late; needless to say, though, the team will be glad to welcome back its missing arms. Righty Charlie Morton will be activated to start on Friday, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle writes, and he’ll be interesting to watch upon his return. Morton has a solid 4.06 ERA and even better peripherals, though it remains to be seen whether Houston will feel comfortable relying on him (among others) for a presumptive postseason staff. Fellow righty Collin McHugh is also making forward progress; Kaplan notes he’ll make a second rehab outing at Double-A. Meanwhile, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart tweets, top lefty Dallas Keuchel may be closing in on his own rehab assignment.
Astros Rumors
David Paulino Receives 80-Game Suspension
Major League Baseball has announced an 80-game suspension without pay for Astros right-hander David Paulino, who tested positive for Boldenone, a performance-enhancing substance. It’s the first PED offense for Paulino, who won’t appeal the ban, tweets Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle. Paulino will miss the rest of the regular season and won’t be eligible to participate in the playoffs if Houston qualifies, which looks like a formality for a 54-27 club that leads the American League West by 13.5 games.
“We are disappointed in the news today regarding David Paulino,” general manager Jeff Luhnow said in a statement. “We hope this is a one-time incident and something David can learn from as he continues his career. The Astros will continue to fully support Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.”
The 23-year-old Paulino currently ranks as Baseball America’s 67th-best prospect, a slight fall from his 51st-place standing after the 2016 season. He debuted at the major league level last year, albeit with only seven innings of work, and racked up six starts this season prior to his suspension. Paulino managed just a 6.52 ERA and a 30.1 percent ground-ball rate in 29 innings this year, but he did post impressive strikeout and walk rates (10.55 K/9 and 2.17 BB/9), and he induced infield pop-ups at an above-average clip (11.9 percent).
While Paulino wouldn’t have factored into a semi-healthy Astros rotation come playoff time, his loss is a blow to their depth at the very least. Houston is currently without three-fifths of its rotation in Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh, all of whom have missed significant time this year because of injuries. Lance McCullers and Joe Musgrove have also spent time on the disabled list this season, thus creating opportunities for the likes of Paulino and Brad Peacock.
With Morton on his way back, Paulino likely would have been leaving Houston’s starting group soon, but he could have continued his development in the big league bullpen or in Triple-A Fresno’s rotation. Further, it’s possible that Paulino would have served as a trade chip by this month’s deadline. As one of Houston’s top prospects, the team perhaps could have used Paulino in a package to reel in a more established big leaguer.
Luhnow rightly called Paulino an “important piece” earlier this season, but his off-field troubles are undoubtedly frustrating to the club. Paulino has now been subjected to discipline in back-to-back years. When Paulino was at Double-A last summer, the Astros issued him a suspension for unknown reasons, though Luhnow did note that Paulino didn’t do “anything major.” That’s not the case this time, however, and his season is over as a result.
Draft Signings: 6/29/17
Let’s round up the latest significant draft signings:
- Both of the Blue Jays’ top picks are under contract, per a team announcement. Both Logan Warmoth and Nate Pearson will receive above-slot bonuses, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (on Twitter), though neither went much over. MLB.com’s Jim Callis tweets that Warmoth will receive $2,820,200 ($25K over slot), while Pearson gets $2,452,900 (that’s $150K over the value of the 28th pick). Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith has the story on the deal from the team’s perspective. Warmoth, taken 22nd overall, received top-20 billing from Baseball America and Fangraphs. ESPN.com’s Keith Law was even higher on the UNC shortstop, crediting him with a top-level hit tool, good speed, and a strong chance to stick at short in the long run. Similarly, Pearson drew a consensus as being a top-30-ish prospect, but earned a higher grade from one outlet. BA ranked him 13th, noting that the JuCo righty has made huge strides in developing his arsenal and controlling it.
- The Astros announced the signing of second-rounder Corbin Martin, a right-hander from Texas A&M. He’ll receive a $1MM bonus, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter), which lands a bit shy of the $1,178,600 allotment for the 56th overall selection. MLB.com was highest on Martin, ranking him 32nd, noting that some inconsistencies have clouded the status of a pitcher who has a promising array of pitches.
- Indians supplemental second-round pick Tyler Freeman, a high-school shortstop from California, will get the slot value of $816,500, Callis tweets. He cracked the top 100 on BA’s list. While he’s said not to possess loud tools, Freeman is credited as a well-rounded player with a sense for the game and quality makeup.
Pitching Injury Notes: Smyly, Weigel, Keuchel, Nats, Salazar, Hendricks, Finnegan
The Mariners got some unwelcome news about the status of rehabbing lefty Drew Smyly. As Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, plans for Smyly to face live hitting were scuttled after the southpaw experienced some elbow discomfort. Pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre explains that Smyly has dealt with other such “episodes” while working back from a flexor strain, especially when throwing breaking pitches, so perhaps this could just be a minor blip. Still, he’s slated for a medical examination; at present, there’s no clear indication of what’ll come next. “Until the doctors check, and all that stuff subsides, you just can’t move forward,” explains Stottlemyre. “It’s hard to make a plan going forward until we know more.”
Clearly, Seattle’s deadline plans could be altered by Smyly’s progress (or lack thereof). If the team finds itself in a strong Wild Card position at the end of July, but doesn’t think it’ll get the rotation boost it needs, it’s at least possible to imagine a move to bolster the rotation. Here are some more notable injury situations from around the game:
- Young Braves hurler Patrick Weigel is headed for Tommy John surgery, per David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. That’s the result that was feared when it was learned that he had suffered a partial UCL tear. Soon to turn 23, Weigel had reached Triple-A in just his third professional season. He could’ve conceivably provided the Braves with a rotation option for 2018, so the loss should only increase the organization’s interest in adding a significant outside starter.
- It seems the Astros are wisely taking a measured approach with southpaw Dallas Keuchel, who is working back from a pinched nerve in his neck. As Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle writes, skipper A.J. Hinch acknowledges that the club is “just being conservative” by “methodically putting a few more challenges in front of him” to bring Keuchel along slowly. With Keuchel in need of at some rehab outings before returning to the MLB hill, it seems he won’t likely make it back until after the All-Star break. That timeline surely works just fine for the front-running Astros, who are as close to a postseason shoe-in as there can be at this stage of the season.
- The Nationals’ bullpen needs have long been a focus of the 2017 trade season. Just how many arms the Nats will go looking for could well depend in part upon the progress of several current pitchers. Per a club update, via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter), Sammy Solis appears to be making real strides after missing a significant stretch with elbow issues, as he was able to take the ball for Triple-A Syracuse. If the power lefty can return to health and to form, that’d be a significant boost. Meanwhile, Shawn Kelley (out with a trap strain) has resumed throwing — which is not yet the case for fellow righty Koda Glover (who is dealing with back issues).
- There’s some positive momentum for Indians righty Danny Salazar, as Jimmy Miller of the Akron Beacon Journal writes. Salazar says his shoulder feels good, and he’s now slated to begin a rehab assignment. The high-octane hurler, 27, could potentially re-take a spot in the rotation or provide Cleveland with another fascinating, multi-inning-capable bullpen arm.
- Likewise, the Cubs saw progress from righty Kyle Hendricks, as Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago tweets that he was able to throw (albeit only from 90 feet) without experiencing any issues in his hand. Hendricks has been dealing with tendon problems in his pitching hand, leading to a DL placement. Before going down with the injury, Hendricks had turned in eleven somewhat worrying starts. Expectations were high after he landed third in the 2016 Cy Young voting, but Hendricks has shown a significant velocity loss (over two miles per hour on his fastball) and a big drop in swinging-strike rate (from 10.0% to 7.3%). Getting him healthy and back to form would represent a big boost to the Cubs, though it’s not clear whether they’ll have a real read on his capacity before making deadline plans.
- While the Reds haven’t yet made a move, it seems likely that lefty Brandon Finnegan is heading back to the DL. Initial indications were that he had only experienced a triceps strain during his first start after rehabbing an injury to the teres major muscle in his shoulder. Instead, per manager Bryan Price (on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM, via Twitter), the injury was traced to that same muscle. While it’s said to be in a different part of the muscle, it nevertheless seems rather concerning that Finnegan is experiencing issues in that same narrow area. The broader prognosis remains unclear at this moment, though Price said he expects the southpaw to miss “at least … several weeks, if not longer.”
Draft Signings: 6/27/17
Here are the latest draft signings of note:
- The Astros have landed second-round pick Joe Perez, according to MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo (via Twitter). He’ll take home a $1.6MM bonus that exceeds the 53rd overall pick’s slot value of $1.265MM. Perez is coming off of Tommy John surgery, but he has a big arm that led to top-100 grades from MLB.com and Baseball America. The righty looks like a possible future bullpen piece, but the Astros say they’ll give him a shot at developing first as a hitter. Per BA’s scouting report, he’s a question mark to stay at third but shows promising all-fields power. Perez, who forewent a scholarship at Miami to join the ’Stros, becomes the first of Houston’s top four picks to agree to terms.
- We previously covered the Brewers’ signing of second-rounder Caden Lemons, but his bonus information wasn’t available at that time. Per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter link), the prep righty will receive $1.45MM — just shy of the $1,493,500 slot value of the 46th pick. While top selection Keston Hiura is already in agreement, the remainder of Milwaukee’s slate of draftees were held up a bit by the NCAA tournament.
Dallas Keuchel Likely Sidelined Until After All-Star Break
- Astros ace Dallas Keuchel isn’t likely to return from the disabled list until after the All-Star Break, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle writes. The left-hander was placed on the DL on June 8 due to neck discomfort, the second time Keuchel has been sidelined this season due to neck problems. The team was known to be taking a very conservative approach to Keuchel’s rehab, and he has yet to begin throwing off a mound, though he has doing some long-tossing at a 120-foot distance. As Kaplan notes, there isn’t any huge rush to get Keuchel back given the Astros’ big AL West lead, as the team obviously wants to ensure its star lefty is fully recovered and ready for the postseason push.
Astros Players On Fastball Trends
- The Astros are seeing the fewest four-seam fastballs of any team in recent history but are also throwing the fewest number of four-seamers as a team, observes Eno Sarris of Fangraphs. Houston players such as George Springer, Brad Peacock, Brian McCann and Josh Reddick all chatted with Sarris about the trend, offering potential explanations for the manner in which they’ve been pitched. Peacock, who is having a breakout season, described his deviation from the four-seamer as “playing keepaway,” and Sarris points out that Mike Fiers’ season turned around sharply when he began incorporating a sinker into his fastball mix. Springer suggested to Sarris that the move away from four-seamers is a league-wide trend — the Angels, for one team, have been moving away from four-seamers — while McCann suggests that perhaps the trend is merely part of the natural ebb and flow of pitching trends that takes place throughout the league every few years. It’s an interesting read with very good insight from several players that’s well worth a full look.
McCullers Nearing Return, Morton Ready For Rehab
- The Astros have weathered the absences of several top starters, though the team is surely looking forward to welcoming them back in time to make a full rotation assessment before the trade deadline. First in line seems to be righty Lance McCullers; as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle writes, the excellent young hurler is set to return to the bump on Saturday. He has missed time with a lower back issue, but it doesn’t appear to be cause for much concern in the bigger picture.
- Meanwhile, fellow Astros righty Charlie Morton is scheduled for a short rehab outing tonight, as Kaplan further writes. The hope is that he’ll be ready to make it back to the MLB hill before the All-Star break. Morton has been quite a pleasant surprise, despite the time missed for a lat strain. He has not only provided 57 2/3 solid innings, posting a 4.06 ERA, but has shown the promise of delivering even better results. Morton is sitting in the mid-nineties with his fastball while carrying 10.1 K/9, both of which dwarf his prior full-season marks.
Athletics Notes: Gray Rumors, Semien, Stadium
It now seems likely that the Athletics will end up moving Sonny Gray this summer, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. There’s likely to be plenty of interest in the righty, who is showing improved form after a forgettable 2016 season; indeed, he just placed fourth on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 trade candidates. The full scope of potential suitors isn’t yet known, but Slusser does provide some interesting observations. The Astros, she notes, are “one of the more realistic landing spots” for Gray, with clear interest on Houston’s part and a history of swaps between the division rivals. (A prior report of that possible connection arose over the weekend.) There’s even an unnamed NL club that, per Slusser, “has toyed with the idea of using Gray as a closer.” (If you’re wondering what team that might be, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs takes a shot at a guess.)
More out of Oakland…
- Injured shortstop Marcus Semien will embark on a rehab assignment this weekend, writes John Hickey of the San Jose Mercury News, though it’s not likely to be a quick assignment. “It’s going to look maybe a little like spring training,” said manager Bob Melvin. Semien will start off by playing five innings per game and gradually build up to playing full games, per Hickey. I’d imagine that the impending return of Semien will only further trade chatter surrounding Jed Lowrie, as there have already been rumblings that he could be moved to pave way for infield prospect Franklin Barreto.
- Athletics president Dave Kaval stated yesterday that the A’s will announce the site of a new stadium with the calendar year, as Joe Stiglich of CSN Bay Area writes. The three locations in consideration are a waterfront venue near Howard Terminal, a neighborhood park next to Laney College or a newer facility at the current site of the Coliseum. “Obviously we’re working as quickly as we can to make the announcement as soon as possible,” said Kaval. “At that time, we’ll not only let folks know what the final location is, but also the timeline to actually develop the ballpark, all the different approval processes and also the groundbreaking and the opening date.”
Astros’ Jandel Gustave Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Astros righty Jandel Gustave underwent Tommy John surgery today, writes Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle. The hard-throwing reliever had been on the disabled list since April 19 with what was announced as a flexor strain. It’s not clear when the diagnosis of a torn ulnar collateral ligament was made, but regardless, Gustave will be out for the rest of the 2017 campaign and likely most of the 2018 season as well.
[Related: Houston Astros depth chart]
Gustave, 24, was picked out of the Astros’ organization in the 2014 Rule 5 Draft by the Red Sox and bounced around the waiver circuit during Spring Training 2015 before being returned to Houston in early April. He made his MLB debut a year later in 2016, tossing 15 1/3 innings of 3.52 ERA ball with a 16-to-4 K/BB ratio and a 40 percent ground-ball rate. This year, Gustave made the Opening Day roster out of Spring Training for the first time in his career and tossed five innings with the ’Stros before falling to injury. In that brief time, he issued seven walks and fanned just two men.
The Astros have solid bullpen depth as it is, and currently rank 11th, third, and first in the league, respectively, in bullpen ERA (3.85), FIP (3.27) and xFIP (3.43). The loss of Gustave and departure of Luke Gregerson as a free agent this offseason will thin that depth out a bit, though the combination of Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Will Harris and Michael Feliz make for a formidable top four in the relief corps.
