Latest On Market For Rich Hill
There are four teams heavily pursuing free-agent lefty Rich Hill, according to ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden. The Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers, and Astros are all said to be chasing down a pitcher who is arguably the best available on this year’s market. Also joining pursuit are the Red Sox and Orioles, per the report, though it seems their interest is less robust.
We’ve heard plenty of chatter about the possibility of the Yankees making a move on Hill, and the Dodgers likewise have long been said to have interest in a reunion. The AL West-rival Rangers and Astros, though, have not been tied as closely — in part, perhaps, since both have already signed starters — though MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes listed both as plausible suitors in his top-fifty free agent list. Meanwhile, the two AL East teams mentioned seemingly have fully stocked rotations, though surely both could stand to upgrade in the right situation.
Hill is coming off of an outstanding age-36 season. While he was limited to 110 1/3 innings, owing to a blister, the veteran southpaw recorded a sensational 2.12 ERA with 10.5 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. While there was justifiable skepticism last winter, following Hill’s four excellent, late-season starts in the prior campaign, he now seems worth pursuing as a possible top-of-the-rotation arm.
There’s plenty of reason to tamper contract expectations, of course. Even if one accepts that Hill can continue to mow down opposing hitters, he’s not young and comes with a long history of injuries. And it’s certainly possible that he’s in line for some regression in the earned-run department after limiting opposing hitters to just 0.33 home runs per nine innings a season ago.
Though he essentially uses just two pitches, Hill has baffled the opposition with a heater that barely averages 90 mph and a breaking ball that he can manipulate at will. And the recent results aren’t just a batted-ball-fortune fluke; he was credited with a 2.39 FIP, 3.36 xFIP, and 3.29 SIERA in 2016. With no other true impact starters available on the open market, and despite the obvious questions, MLBTR predicts that he’ll command a $50MM guarantee over three seasons.
AL West Notes: S-Rod, Athletics, Gray, Astros, Cashner
Here’s the latest from the AL West…
- The Angels discussed signing Sean Rodriguez before the utilityman agreed to a deal with the Braves yesterday, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports (Twitter link). Fletcher isn’t sure whether the Halos had serious interest or were just considering all options. Rodriguez could have stepped right in to fill the Angels’ hole at second base, or potentially taken over third base if Yunel Escobar had been switched to second. Besides the Halos, the Dodgers, Pirates and Blue Jays were also known to have interest in the versatile Rodriguez.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports joins CSNBayArea.com’s Joe Stiglich on the A’s Insider podcast (audio link) to discuss several offseason topics, including the possibility of some Athletics trades. Rosenthal figures other teams will have “some lively discussions” with the A’s about Stephen Vogt given the lack of catching around the game, and Oakland will get interest in Sonny Gray given the thin free agent pitching market. That said, Rosenthal isn’t sure whether Gray will be dealt since his stock has been lowered by his rough 2016 season. “I’m not so sure this is the right time to trade him because obviously if he puts together a good first half you’ve got the best guy at the deadline,” Rosenthal said. “At the same time, there’s always the risk he gets hurt again. Maybe he doesn’t bounce back, maybe you lose value.”
- The Astros and Rangers still look like the class of the AL West, in Rosenthal’s opinion, though both teams still have clear needs — Houston needs to add another starting pitcher, while Texas has holes to fill in its everyday roster due to several free agents.
- The Astros‘ need for pitching is what differentiates them from the Cubs, though as the New York Post’s Joel Sherman points out, Houston bears a lot of similarity to the World Series champs. Like the Astros, Chicago also totally purged the roster in a rebuild effort and added several impressive young position players through the draft. The Cubs then spent big to add veterans in free agency and trades to score the missing pieces, and the Astros seem to be on the same track by adding Brian McCann and Josh Reddick this winter. The key for Houston, of course, is if Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers can provide the same top-of-the-rotation strength that Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta (not to mention Kyle Hendricks) gave the Cubs.
- Andrew Cashner is an improvement over the departing Derek Holland in the Rangers‘ rotation, Kevin Sherrington of SportsDayDFW.com opines. Cashner, who the Rangers recently signed to a one-year/$10MM deal, has much better velocity, and the loss of zip on Holland’s fastball makes him vulnerable. Also, as MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan previously noted, Rangers pitching coach Doug Brocail believes he can “fix” Cashner.
Astros Sign Josh Reddick
NOVEMBER 23: The deal has been announced, meaning Reddick is officially headed to Houston.
NOVEMBER 17: The Astros have struck twice today: after announcing a deal to acquire catcher Brian McCann, the club has now agreed to sign free-agent outfielder Josh Reddick, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links). So long as his physical pans out, Reddick will receive a four-year, $52MM deal, per the report.
Houston entered the offseason with an immensely talented roster that didn’t quite meet expectations in 2016. The message all along from GM Jeff Luhnow was that the organization would be aggressive in building around a core that includes top-quality players such as Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, and the fast-rising Alex Bregman.
With Yulieski Gurriel already brought into the fold in a mid-season international signing, it seems that the ‘Stros are mostly set on the position-player side of things. But there are still some areas that could see tinkering. Depending upon whether the organization intends to utilize Springer in center, a new regular (or platoon partner for Jake Marisnick) could still be pursued. With Bregman seemingly ensconced at third, Gulieski could spend his time in the corner outfield or perhaps at first base, which is the other area that could conceivably see a new addition.
Like McCann, Reddick will bring a left-handed bat to replace an outgoing player. In this case, it’s Colby Rasmus, who returned to the open market after a disappointing 2016 season. Though the ‘Stros had already dealt for Nori Aoki, who might have been in line for a similar role, it could flip him or simply not tender him a contract in arbitration.
Coming into the winter, the big question for Reddick was whether he’d be able to secure a fourth guaranteed year. While noting that possibility, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes wagered that he wouldn’t in a market that is relatively robust on the supply side in corner outfielders. But Houston evidently believes in Reddick, giving the 29-year-old a fairly hefty contract.
Of course, that kind of deal might even have looked light as of the summer trade deadline. At that point, Reddick was in the midst of a quality season for the A’s (despite missing time early with a fractured thumb), which led the Dodgers to make him their primary position-player addition. But Reddick was terrible in August, and ended up being used in a platoon capacity in Los Angeles.
That wasn’t quite the end of the story, of course. Reddick put up a blistering September and ended with a solid overall .281/.345/.405 batting line and ten home runs over 439 plate appearances. Given that he spent much of his time hitting at the O.Co Coliseum, that represented above-average production, though it fell shy of the .269/.326/.448 slash he put up over the two prior campaigns.
There are certainly some questions in Reddick’s game. First and foremost: his ability to hit left-handed pitching. Reddick has always carried rather significant platoon splits, but things didn’t improve last year, as he posted an awful .155/.212/.155 slash over 104 trips to the plate against same-handed pitching. And despite a history of delivering value in the field and on the bases, Reddick didn’t rate very well in either area last year (though DRS disagreed with UZR on the glovework, grading him as an above-average right fielder).
Still, it’s not as big a commitment as it seems when placed in the overall market context. Reddick’s deal represents something like the going rate for solid players who are capable of near-regular playing time. It’s exactly what the Yankees gave Brett Gardner in an extension and just shy of the older Ben Zobrist‘s free agent contract from a winter ago. Other outfielders to land in this price range on four-year deals in recent years include Nick Markakis ($44MM), Nick Swisher ($56MM), and Michael Bourn ($48MM).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Rumors: Wieters, Beltran, Dunn, Masterson
Matt Wieters‘ poor ratings in terms of pitch-framing are weighing down his market, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney (ESPN Insider required). Olney spoke to multiple evaluators who believe that Wieters’ defense declined in 2016, and as he notes, a number of executives around the game are placing a greater emphasis on framing, which is perhaps why Jason Castro just landed a three-year deal despite poor offensive production dating back to the 2014 season. Per Olney, while both the Twins and Rays are interested in Castro, it’s not clear that either has any interest in Wieters. Olney lists the Orioles and Nationals as potential landing spots for Wieters and also adds that the Braves have expressed some interest, “but probably for far less than what [agent Scott Boras] wants.” Also worth a brief mention with regard to Wieters: Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports that he suffered a laceration to his non-throwing arm in a household mishap this offseason. The wound required stitches, and Wieters is wearing a protective shield for the time being, but he’s expected to be able to resume baseball activities in January. The injury shouldn’t see any delay in his readiness for Spring Training.
More on the free-agent market…
- Executives with interested teams are beginning to get the sense that Carlos Beltran‘s market is coming down to the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Rangers, too, could be “lurking” in the background and contemplating a more earnest attempt to retain him, although WEEI’s Rob Braford reported that Texas wasn’t in the running as of last week. Though he turns 40 next April, Beltran obviously enjoyed a strong 2016 season split between the Yankees and Rangers. The Yankees and Red Sox have the clearest paths to playing time for him, from my vantage point, as the Astros also have Evan Gattis on a guaranteed $5.2MM salary to spend a considerable amount of time at DH. However, if the Astros are comfortable deploying Gattis more sparingly or giving Beltran some time in the outfield, the fit could still work. And, of course, it’s never bad to have significant significant depth options.
- The Marlins are still in the mix to retain left-hander Mike Dunn, according to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, but the recent four-year, $30.5MM contract that the Cardinals gave to Brett Cecil may have skewed the market for left-handed relief help. Dunn’s representatives could push for an annual value north of $5MM, which may be more than Miami was hoping to spend. Like Cecil, Dunn has had some success against right-handed hitters in his career and may not be deployed as a pure lefty specialist by the team that ultimately signs him. However, Dunn is 14 months older than Cecil and also battled a forearm strain this season. Beyond that, he simply hasn’t been as good as Cecil in recent years; Cecil owned a 2.90 ERA with 11.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 50.2 percent ground-ball rate from 2013-16. Dunn, meanwhile, had a 3.38 ERA with 9.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 35.4 percent ground-ball rate in that same time.
- Former Indians right-hander Justin Masterson said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today that his agent, Randy Rowley, is talking with a few teams as he looks for a landing spot (Twitter link). “It’s looking for a situation that will fit,” said Masterson. “I feel healthy. I feel strong.” Masterson spent most of the 2016 season with the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate and didn’t perform particularly well, pitching to a 4.97 ERA with a 32-to-26 K/BB ratio in 54 1/3 innings. While he’s still young enough for a rebound (32 in March), Masterson hasn’t delivered above-average results since his All-Star 2013 season with Cleveland. In the interim, he’s been sidelined by myriad knee and shoulder injuries.
Astros Outright Jon Singleton
TUESDAY: Singleton has cleared waivers and been assigned to Triple-A, Kaplan tweets.
SATURDAY: The Astros placed first baseman Jon Singleton on outright waivers yesterday, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reports (Twitter links). Kaplan expects Singleton to clear waivers when eligible on Tuesday, and Singleton will then be outrighted to Triple-A, and off the Astros’ 40-man roster.
Once considered one of the top minor leaguers in the sport, Singleton was the centerpiece of the prospect package sent by the Phillies to the Astros in July 2011 for Hunter Pence. Houston even signed Singleton to a five-year, $10MM extension prior to his major league debut in 2014, a deal that drew quite a bit of controversy given how it was perceived by some (including the MLBPA) as Singleton signing away quite a bit of future earning potential.
As it turned out, Singleton may have done well to lock down a big payday given his struggles over the last few years. He hit just .171/.290/.331 over 420 plate appearances in 2014-15 and he didn’t play in the bigs at all in 2016, instead spending the year at Triple-A Fresno and hitting .202/.337/.390 over 501 PA. That batting line is particularly concerning given that Singleton was playing in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
With A.J. Reed, Tyler White, Yulieski Gurriel and Brian McCann all looking like first base options on Houston’s major league roster, one has to wonder if Singleton’s time in the organization is coming to an end. As Kaplan noted, Singleton isn’t likely to be claimed by another team since the Astros still owe him $2MM in each of the next two years (plus a $500K buyout of his $2.5MM option for 2019).
Angels Claim Nolan Fontana, Designate Juan Graterol
The Angels announced today that they’ve claimed infielder Nolan Fontana off waivers from the Astros and designated catcher Juan Graterol for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.
Fontana, 25, long rated as one of Houston’s top prospects but has seen his stock decline steadily in recent seasons. Baseball America rated him 29th among Astros farmhands last winter, and by midseason, he’d fallen off MLB.com’s top 30 Astros prospects entirely. The former second-round pick batted a combined .203/.282/.273 in 451 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A this year. While the ‘Stros once hoped that he could eventually man an up-the-middle infield spot, BA noted last winter that his ceiling now looked to be a utility infielder who draws plenty of walks but has bottom-of-the-scale power. BA did note that Fontana is a reliable defender at second base, even if he lacks the range or arm to handle shortstop on a regular basis. Fontana did hit .241/.369/.357 in a full season at Triple-A in 2015, so he does at least have a history of somewhat better performance at that level.
Graterol, 27, made his Major League debut and tallied 15 PAs with the Halos this past season. The former Royals farmhand spent the 2015 season in the Yankees organization before inking a minors pact with the Halos last offseason. He’s a career .274/.306/.338 hitter in parts of three seasons (95 games) at the Triple-A level.
AL West Notes: Rangers, Astros, Angels
Several young Rangers prospects have been investigated by Dominican police after a reported sexual assault occurred in a hazing incident a few months ago. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported on the matter recently, with Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports providing additional information today. At this time, no charges have been filed, but Passan notes that prosecutors have stated an intention to do so with regard to four players. The Rangers organization reported the matter to Major League Baseball, which placed the players on administrative leave.
Here are more notes from the American League West:
- The Rangers announced a series of front office moves in the wake of the departure of former assistant GM Thad Levine. As Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News explains, the organization promoted a trio of executives to AGM posts. Mike Daly, previously the player development director, will most directly step into Levine’s shoes. Josh Boyd will take charge of professional scouting, research and development, and the team’s operations in the Pacific region. And Jayce Tingler, who was previously a uniformed coach (most recently, major league field coordinator), will take charge of player development.
- ESPN.com’s Keith Law takes a look at the Astros‘ recent series of moves, arguing that the team managed to shore up three areas of need without dedicating too much in the way of resources. Adding Josh Reddick improves the team’s flexibility while installing a near-regular corner outfielder, and Law finds the four-year, $52MM payday to be palatable. He’s also bullish on the value signing of righty Charlie Morton, who the team will look to as a solid rotation piece after he missed most of the 2016 season with a hamstring injury. Law is somewhat less enamored of Houston’s trade for Brian McCann, who he views as a more-or-less average performer behind the plate whose age is a concern.
- Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports isn’t convinced of the Angels‘ current direction, suggesting that the organization is in the process of wasting some of the best seasons of Mike Trout‘s already incredible career. Though Trout was again recognized as the A.L. MVP despite the team’s losing season, Rosenthal says that he’s playing in “relative obscurity” since the Halos haven’t managed to complement him with enough talent. Meanwhile, of course, there are no indications that Los Angeles has any interest in trading the best player in baseball. There’s no doubt, from my perspective, that the organization is in a bit of a bind given its largely moribund farm and the fact that it’s still feeling the effects of some ill-fated signings. The only real path to improving its roster at this point is to take on yet more future salary obligations, or to roll the dice on less-appealing (but more affordable) open-market options. The Angels have already set out to find some budget-friendly solutions in the early going — dealing for Cameron Maybin and signing Jesse Chavez and Andrew Bailey — but it’ll be interesting to see if a larger move or two is in the offing.
Blue Jays Offered Roughly $80MM To Edwin Encarnacion
The Blue Jays made a four-year contract offer to Edwin Encarnacion that was worth “about” $80MM before agreeing to a three-year, $33MM deal with Kendrys Morales, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi first noted that the Jays’ offer to Encarnacion was “likely” in that vicinity. However, despite the addition of Morales, Toronto is still interested in re-signing Encarnacion and remains in the mix for his services, according to Heyman. The Jays feel that Encarnacion can play first base competently enough to coexist on the roster with Morales.
The $80MM offer to Encarnacion is a sizable step up from the team’s reported two-year offer back in Spring Training, though Encarnacion’s robust market seems likely to lead to greater offers. Heyman lists the Astros, Yankees, Rangers and Red Sox as other teams that have at least reached out to Encarnacion, and agent Paul Kinzer tells him that a couple of National League clubs have reached out as well. Certainly, there will be some who are scared off by the notion of playing Encarnacion at first base on an everyday basis, especially as he advances into his late 30s over the life of a four- or five-year deal, but it’s worth noting that Encarnacion has at least graded out as a roughly average defender at first in fairly limited action with the Jays over the past two seasons (0 DRS, +3.3 UZR in 1117 innings).
Toronto general manager Ross Atkins said this weekend that the door is still open for a new deal with Encarnacion, stating that the signing of Morales only “slightly” lessens the chances of a big splash for Encarnacion. However, Atkins also said the team would be aggressive in pursuing one, if not two outfield pieces to add to the mix, and the Jays are also known to be interested in adding left-handed relief help (especially now that Brett Cecil has signed in St. Louis). With so many needs across the board and a number of other clubs interested in Encarnacion’s bat, it’s not clear that the Jays will feel comfortable beating the market in order to retain their star slugger, especially considering the fact that the Morales deal brings another potential 30-homer bat to the table at a considerably more affordable rate.
Quick Hits: Twins, Hughes, D’Arnaud, Aoki, Mariners
Some items from around baseball as we head into a new week…
- Brian Dozier is drawing interest from other teams but the Twins aren’t looking to tie Phil Hughes‘ contract to Dozier in trade talks, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets. Hughes still has three years and $39.6MM remaining on the extension he signed with the Twins prior to the 2015 season, and since inking that new deal, Hughes has struggled badly and battled injury problems. The veteran righty underwent surgery to help alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome last summer, and Hughes believes he can regain his old form now that he’s healthy.
- While Hughes may not be getting shopped, Berardino also notes (Twitter link) that the Twins aren’t looking to add payroll, even after freeing up some money by parting ways with Trevor Plouffe, Kurt Suzuki and Tommy Milone. As one rival official puts it, “everyone knows they’re rebuilding.”
- The Mets don’t seem to be looking for a big change at catcher, as Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports that the team told representatives of a free agent catcher that Travis d’Arnaud will be given every opportunity to succeed next season. Since the Mets offered d’Arnaud as part of trade talks for Jonathan Lucroy over the summer, it’s notable that the team is reaffirming its commitment to the talented but oft-injured catcher, though it could be that New York was more enamored with Lucroy than it is with the options on free agent catching market. Ackert does note that the Mets could look for a more reliable backup, given d’Arnaud’s injury history and the shared offensive struggles of Kevin Plawecki and Rene Rivera.
- Though Nori Aoki has only been an Astro for less than three weeks, the veteran outfielder may now be a non-tender candidate, the Houston Chronicle’s Jake Kaplan writes. If the Astros plan to use the newly-signed Josh Reddick in left field, Aoki will be a very highly-paid fourth outfielder (thanks to a projected $6.8MM arbitration salary) and possibly an expendable part. If the Astros use Reddick in right and move George Springer to center field, Aoki will again have more of a clear role, platooning with Jake Marisnick in left. Houston has also been linked to some first baseman in rumors, which could push Yulieski Gurriel to left field and again leave Aoki without regular playing time.
- For the second straight offseason, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto is acting quickly on lower-profile moves to elevate his team’s talent floor, ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield writes. Additions like Danny Valencia, Richie Shaffer and Carlos Ruiz fill holes and add more valuable depth around the Mariners’ core players, the type of top-to-bottom roster management that former Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik was unable to achieve in his time with the club.
- While several big-name relievers are dominating headlines this winter, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello cites Daniel Hudson, Juan Nicasio and Koji Uehara as relatively inexpensive arms who could provide major dividends in a bullpen next season, perhaps even as closers.
Astros Interested In Mike Napoli
Veteran slugger Mike Napoli is one of the free agent hitters drawing interest from the Astros, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link). While a left-handed bat would be a better fit within a Houston lineup is heavy with right-handed hitters (even after the acquisitions of Josh Reddick and Brian McCann), Napoli would bring some extra veteran leadership to a young team as well as a significant amount of pop.
First base is an area of uncertainty for the Astros for 2017. Top prospect A.J. Reed is still likely seen as the long-term answer at the position, though Reed didn’t show much in his first taste of the big leagues and perhaps isn’t ready to be a regular for a contending team. Yulieski Gurriel is penciled in as Houston’s top first base option, with Reed, Tyler White, Marwin Gonzalez and McCann in the mix for backup duty.
It’s also still possible that Gurriel ends up as the regular left fielder if the Astros go with George Springer in center and Reddick in right, so adding a player like Napoli would go a long way towards stabilizing the first base situation. Whereas a big-ticket free agent first baseman like Edwin Encarnacion would require a commitment of four or five years, Napoli probably won’t require anything more than a two-year deal, so Reed wouldn’t be blocked for too long.
GM Jeff Luhnow’s statement earlier this month that the Astros were going to look to the free agent market for upgrades has already proven to be true with the signings of Reddick and Charlie Morton, though Houston also swung a big trade to land McCann from the Yankees.
Seattle and Cleveland have both been linked to Napoli this winter, and he has been speculatively connected to several other teams with vacancies at first base or DH. The 35-year-old put himself in line for a nice contract in the wake of his 34-homer, .239/.335/.465 season with the American League champion Indians last season.