NL Central Notes: Ludwick, Sanchez, Astros
As the Cardinals continue to battle the Giants in the NLCS, here's the latest from the NL Central…
- The Reds probably won't be able to afford Ryan Ludwick if he insists on "market value" for veteran corner outfielders, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. That's probably true if Ludwick looks for the deals that Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel or Michael Cuddyer (Fay's comparables) received last winter, but Willingham and Cuddyer were the oldest of the trio, going into their age-33 seasons. Ludwick turns 35 in July, so a three-year deal seems far-fetched to me.
- The Brewers announced they have purchased the contract of right-hander Jesus Sanchez and added him to their 40-man roster. The 25-year-old Sanchez posted a combined 1.63 ERA in 52 relief appearances at the Double-A and Triple-A levels last season, plus a 2.91 K/BB ratio and 64 strikeouts in 71 2/3 innings.
- The Astros won't have their coaching staff finalized for a week or two, GM Jeff Luhnow told reporters, including MLB.com's Brian McTaggart. Only one or two members of the current Astros' staff is under consideration to return under new manager Bo Porter. Bench coach Joe Pettini will not be back, reports McTaggart (Twitter link).
Quick Hits: Hunter, Leyland, Otani, Astros
The Angels have offered Torii Hunter a one-year contract at a heavy pay cut from his previous $18MM salary, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported today. Hunter, who’s eligible for free agency this offseason, seeks at least a two-year deal. The Angels are interested in bringing him back, so there’s a potential fit here if the sides can agree on the value and length of the contract. Here are today’s links…
- Longtime MLB manager Tony La Russa says Jim Leyland of the Tigers seems "as passionate now as he was the first day he managed,”Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reports. Leyland, 67, doesn't have a contract for the 2013 season.
- Shohei Otani throws a slider and a curve to go along with his explosive fastball, Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker writes. The 18-year-old right-hander is one of the top high school pitching prospects to emerge from Japan in years. The Red Sox, Dodgers and Rangers all have some interest in Otani.
- Astros GM Jeff Luhnow said special assistant Matt Galante was offered the chance to return but will explore other options, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports (on Twitter).
Cafardo On Johnson, Soriano, Hernandez, Hamilton
In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that there are some General Managers who have a few regrets regarding last winter. Red Sox GM Ben Cherington wishes he had done more for the rotation. Angels GM Jerry Dipoto probably would have liked to boost the bullpen more during the team's spending frenzy which netted Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson. Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd was asked to assess his own mistakes and said, “How long is this article? Just kidding. We all have regrets. When you make the amount of decisions we do, you make mistakes. So this year [Jeremy] Guthrie was acquired to give us innings, but Coors [Field] got him and that hurt us. We had such a lack of experience everywhere else. There was no margin for error, and I screwed up.” Here's more from today's column..
- Marlins pitcher Josh Johnson will be trade bait, despite talk to the contrary. Miami could get a ton from teams like the Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Royals, Rangers, Twins, and Dodgers. On the whole, the Marlins look like they're ready to clean house again.
- Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano would make a lot of sense for the Rays as a DH, especially since the Cubs would pick up the bulk of his final two years under contract. Soriano could also help the Blue Jays, Orioles, or Indians.
- Indians GM Chris Antonetti says that he expects Shin-Shoo Choo to be back with Cleveland next season as he enters his walk year, but he will also listen to offers for the 30-year-old. Choo could make sense for Boston as they face a similar situation with Jacoby Ellsbury. Cafardo suggests a deal involving a pitcher like Justin Masterson.
- Teams have offered the moon for Felix Hernandez in the past but there’s no chance that Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is going to trade him now. King Felix is under contract through 2014 and the M's have the money to keep him beyond that. For his part, Hernandez is well-paid and loves playing in Seattle.
- Josh Hamilton says that he won't take a discount to stay with the Rangers, but that's where he's likely to land as it's hard to read the market for him. The Tigers, Nationals, Pirates, Phillies, Angels, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Orioles shouldn't be ruled out. The Yankees and Red Sox also can't be crossed off the list but neither market is a strong fit for Hamilton.
- Jake Peavy would appear to be a target for the Red Sox once his $22MM option is declined by the White Sox. The 31-year-old could also end up staying put in Chicago or returning to the NL.
- Former catcher Brad Ausmus, currently serving as a special assistant to the GM in San Diego, said that he would have interest in the Red Sox managerial vacancy. As of Friday, however, he has yet to be contacted. Ausmus turned down a chance to be interviewed for the Astros job earlier this fall.
- The Red Sox are pursuing John Farrell, but Ryne Sandberg could be on their list, even though he was just named as the Phillies' third base coach and is likely being groomed for Charlie Manuel's job. Cherington tried to get Sandberg to take Boston's Triple- A job a couple of years ago.
- While some have accused Bobby Valentine of ignoring advanced scouting reporters, Cafardo says that he saw the manager reading them every time he visited his office.
Minor Moves: 28 Players Elect Free Agency
A total of 28 players — all with big league time under their belts — recently elected free agency after finishing the year in Triple-A. Here is the full list, courtesy of the International League and Pacific Coast League transaction pages…
- Infielders: Brian Bixler (Astros), Sean Burroughs (Twins), Blake DeWitt (Cubs), Alberto Gonzalez (Rangers), Angel Sanchez (Astros), Nate Spears (Red Sox), Drew Sutton (Pirates)
- Outfielders: Travis Buck (Astros), Ryan Langerhans (Angels), Mitch Maier (Royals), Darnell McDonald (Yankees), Jai Miller (Orioles), Trent Oeltjen (Dodgers), Jason Pridie (Phillies), Mike Wilson (Mariners)
- Right-handed Pitchers: Roman Colon (Royals), Mike Ekstrom (Rockies), Jack Egbert (Mets), Ryota Igarashi (Yankees), Evan Meek (Pirates), Scott Richmond (Blue Jays), Kip Wells (Padres), Randy Wells (Cubs), Dan Wheeler (Indians)
- Left-handed Pitchers: Alex Hinshaw (Cubs), Cesar Jimenez (Mariners), Zach Kroenke (Diamondbacks), Garrett Olson (Mets)
Arbitration Eligibles: Houston Astros
The Astros kick off our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series. Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.
- First time: Bud Norris ($2.9MM), Wilton Lopez ($1.4MM), Wesley Wright ($900K)
- Second time: Jed Lowrie ($1.9MM), Edgar Gonzalez ($800K)
Norris, 27, authored an uneven season leading up to his first arbitration year. He posted a stellar 1.71 home ERA versus 6.94 on the road, for an overall 4.65 platform year ERA that won't lead to big arbitration bucks. Norris also comes up short on wins, another important stat for pitchers in arbitration. He's won only 28 of 97 career starts, but at least gets credit for the innings. Other first-time starters such as Doug Fister and Mike Leake will come into play for Norris' arbitration discussions. Beyond his 2013 salary, the broader question is whether Astros GM Jeff Luhnow will attempt to extent Norris at some point. Prior to this season, Luhnow told Milo Hamilton Norris was "a critical part of the plan moving forward."
The Astros acquired Lowrie as part of the Mark Melancon trade with Boston in December of last year, and the shortstop stayed true to his history of solid production in injury-shortened seasons. To be fair, the 28-year-old's injuries have mostly been freakish in nature, and Luhnow noted in a June MLB.com chat, "while I’d never say anyone is untradeable, he’s not likely to go anywhere for a while…or longer!" Though Lowrie has just 353 games under his belt, he has racked up big league service time, so he'll be eligible for free agency after 2014. This offseason would be a fine time for Luhnow to hammer out a team-friendly extension. Yunel Escobar's contract might be a good model, but with less guaranteed money.
The Astros also have a pair of first-time relievers on the docket in Lopez and Wright, and both should be affordable in lieu of big saves or holds totals. Lopez can ramp up his salary dramatically if he holds onto the team's closing job for all of 2013. Gonzalez is the team's lone non-tender candidate, as he's barely sniffed the Majors since '09 and the Astros waited until September to grant him a 40-man roster spot. Assuming he is cut loose, the Astros will have an estimated $7.1MM in 2013 salaries for four arbitration eligible players.
Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.
NL Central Notes: Correia, LaHair, Snyder, Brewers
With tonight's 3-0 win over the Cubs, the Astros have now recorded three straight shutouts for the first time since 1986. It's a small measure of consolation for a team that has already clinched the worst record in baseball and the first overall pick in next year's amateur draft. Here's the latest from Houston and elsewhere around the NL Central…
- Kevin Correia cracked the 170-inning plateau with tonight's start, earning him a $100K bonus, tweets Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Correia will be a free agent this winter and is rumored to be parting ways with the Pirates, given that he's already requested a trade earlier this season.
- Bryan LaHair thinks he has a 50-50 chance of being traded by the Cubs this offseason, he tells ESPN Chicago's Doug Padilla.
- Astros GM Jeff Luhnow is undecided about bringing back Chris Snyder next season, though he's been impressed by Snyder's veteran leadership, reports MLB.com's Brian McTaggart. The Astros and Snyder have a $4MM mutual option for 2013, an option that seems unlikely to be exercised by the club given Snyder's poor hitting this season and the fact that $4MM is a high price for a backup catcher. It's possible the Astros could decline the option and still bring Snyder back on a smaller contract.
- Ron Roenicke tells reporters (including MLB.com's Adam McCalvy) that the Brewers will bring their current coaching staff back next season.
Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros
New ownership, a new front office, a new manager, even a new league. In many ways the 51-year-old Astros are the closest thing MLB has to an expansion franchise.
Guaranteed Contracts
- None
Arbitration Eligible Players
- Jed Lowrie, SS: second time eligible
- Edgar Gonzalez, P: non-tender candidate
- Wilton Lopez, RP: first time eligible
- Wesley Wright, RP: first time eligible
- Bud Norris, SP: first time eligible
Contract Options
- Chris Snyder, C: $4MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Free Agents
- None
The Astros have more needs than can be addressed in a single offseason. They don’t score runs, they have trouble preventing runs, and the roster lacks players who project as MLB regulars on a contending team.
While the upcoming offseason offers general manager Jeff Luhnow the chance to make meaningful additions, it seems unlikely that Houston will court top free agents. If last offseason is any indication, the Astros will be among the sport's most restrained teams. A year ago, in his first offseason as Houston's GM, Luhnow signed two players to guaranteed contracts for a total of $1.45MM. It’d be a surprise if this winter unfolds much differently.
The Astros figure to pursue short-term contracts, minor league free agents and non-tendered players while exploring trades. They spent approximately $61MM on payroll in 2012, their first season under Luhnow and owner Jim Crane. Remarkably, they have less than $10MM committed to next year’s team before accounting for arbitration eligible players. Most of that sum goes to Wandy Rodriguez, who will be starting for the Pirates next year. As a result, the Astros should have financial flexibility even if they lower payroll for the 2013 campaign. This is a team with no bad contracts (and no good, team friendly ones, for that matter).
Adding veterans on one-year deals could make sense for the Astros, as long as the established players aren't displacing those in need of development at the MLB level. There’s value in winning as often as possible, even for non-contenders. It was once possible for teams to flip veterans on one-year deals for legitimate prospects, but those trades are becoming less common. Signing players with the intention of trading them for prospects midseason could also dissuade free agents from signing in Houston.
The Astros rank last in MLB in runs scored, which means offense is a clear need this winter. They have some promising middle infielders in Jose Altuve (pictured) and Jed Lowrie. But among the 30 MLB teams Houston ranks in the bottom ten in OPS at catcher, first base, left field, center field and right field. Then there’s the designated hitter role, which the Astros will have to fill for the first time in the 51-season history of the franchise. Jason Castro is in place behind the plate and Justin Maxwell has probably earned another shot in the outfield. Even so, there are plenty of positions at which Houston could potentially upgrade.
The Astros could also use starting pitching depth following a season in which the team's ERA exceeded 4.50. Ed Wade, Luhnow's predecessor, selected Lucas Harrell off of waivers toward the end of his tenure in Houston and this is precisely the sort of move the current Astros front office will look to replicate. Luhnow claimed three players off of waivers last winter, showing interest in allocating roster spots and playing time to players who have fallen out of favor elsewhere. This is advisable for the Astros, who should continue to prioritize upside over certainty. Only a fraction of pitchers who hit the waiver wire become valuable MLB starters, yet it’s still a worthwhile pursuit. Harrell, who posted a 3.88 ERA in 31 starts this year, joins Bud Norris and Jordan Lyles in Houston’s projected rotation. For now we'll assume Roger Clemens' role with the Astros will be limited to coaching.
If teams closer to contention pursue Norris aggressively it would make sense for Houston to listen. The Astros could aim to copy last year’s Gio Gonzalez trade and turn one established pitcher into multiple players close to the MLB level (the asking price for Norris would presumably be lower). Norris is under team control through 2015, and if the Astros don't expect to contend by then, they should consider trades that might bring long-term pieces to Houston.
The Astros don't have any departing free agents this year after parting ways with players like Carlos Lee, Brett Myers and Francisco Cordero midseason. They have one contract option, a $4MM mutual option for Chris Snyder. The catcher hit just .176/.295/.308 in 258 plate appearances this year, so expect the Astros to decline their side of the option and seek a more affordable backup.
The Astros have a relatively manageable arbitration class led by Norris, the first time eligible starter, and Lowrie, the second time eligible shortstop. Norris should do well after completing lots of innings early in his career and Lowrie's due for a raise after hitting 16 home runs. This isn't a particularly intimidating class from a team standpoint, however.
The Astros could explore an extension for Altuve this winter. The pre-arbitration eligible second baseman hit .274/.331/.351 in the second half after playing at an All-Star level for the first three months of the season, so Luhnow must determine what to expect from the 22-year-old going forward. It'll never be more affordable to lock Altuve up, but the team could easily wait another season before making a substantial commitment. They don't have as much time to decide on Lowrie, who's on track for free agency following the 2014 season. If the Astros aren't interested in extending their shortstop, this winter would be a good time to explore trades.
The Astros may have already made their most significant offseason addition, hiring Bo Porter as the team's new manager. Now that Porter's been hired, Luhnow and other Astros officials can focus on the team's roster instead of prolonging the managerial search unnecessarily.
The Astros will select first overall again next summer, when they'll have the opportunity to add another impact amateur player. Until then, Houston can take steps toward becoming a winning team. Just don't expect this organization to hasten the process in search of a quick fix.
Photo courtesy of US Presswire.
Teams With Protected First Round Picks
Playoff races rightfully get most of the attention this time of year, but there’s intrigue at the bottom of the standings, too. Seven teams have clinched protected first round picks in the 2013 amateur draft with three days remaining in the regular season. The Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Twins, Marlins, Indians and Red Sox will have top ten selections in next year’s draft even if they win the remainder of their games.
These teams can sign elite free agents this offseason (players who turned down qualifying offers from their former clubs) and retain their first round selections. Instead, these teams would surrender second round selections.
As MLBTR detailed last week, the nine teams with the worst records in baseball will have protected first round selections in 2013. The Pirates will also have a protected first round pick, since they did not sign their top 2012 selection, Mark Appel.
The Blue Jays and Royals are currently positioned to obtain the remaining two protected 2013 picks. The Mariners and Mets could pass the Blue Jays or Royals depending on the results of the season's final series.
Cafardo On Blue Jays, Valentine, Smoak, Francona
In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe looks at this season's Executive of the Year candidates. Orioles Executive Vice President Dan Duquette returned from baseball after a ten-year absence to turn the club around and help give them the biggest improvement in all of baseball. In Oakland, A's GM Billy Beane has put the team in position to win with an exciting club powered by strong pitching. In the National League, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo has made a strong case for the award as well for taking the 80-win Nats of 2011 and turning them into division champs. A's outfielder Josh Reddick doesn't get a vote, but he believes that the title should go to Beane. “He’s the best GM in baseball,” said Reddick. “And he has been for a long time. He gives people the opportunity to have their talents come out. The environment he creates is amazing.” Here's more from today's column..
- The prevailing thought is that the Blue Jays will demand a good player from the Red Sox in exchange for John Farrell, but those around Toronto believe it would be easier to get him now than it was last year. Farrell is no longer viewed as the key to the Blue Jays' future, but he would be a strong pickup for the Red Sox who like his familiarity with the club.
- If the Red Sox let Bobby Valentine go, his managerial career isn't necessarily finished. Marlins Jeffrey Loria nearly hired him before he opted to go with Ozzie Guillen to ring in the club's new ballpark. Bobby V could also be an option for the Reds where he is close with owner Bob Castellini and manager Dusty Baker is at the end of his deal.
- Justin Smoak struggled for the bulk of the season but has come on recently thanks to a change in his swing mechanics. Now, Cafardo writes, he's making it tough for the Mariners to decide if they want to keep him for the long haul or move him.
- If Terry Francona does wind up taking the Indians job, Cafardo believes that he would be frustrated after a while given their limited resources. The Tribe also lacks the ability to give Francona the big-time money that he could net from another team.
- Cafardo was surprised by the Astros' hiring of Bo Porter over Rays bench coach Dave Martinez, given their desire to model themselves after Tampa Bay.
Central Notes: Cubs, Hoyer, Indians, Astros
Here's a look at some items out of the Central divisions..
- Cubs General Manager Jed Hoyer has just $40MM committed to four players for 2013 and says that the rotation will be a priority for the club this winter, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. “We certainly have to be aggressive with starting pitching over the course of the winter," said Hoyer. Last night, Hoyer indicated that the Cubs are prepared to be active on the open market this winter.
- A number of candidates have already emerged for the Indians job but Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com opines that newly-minted interim manager Sandy Alomar Jr. is the right hire. Terry Francona, who has also been linked to the gig, appears to be a longshot as Cleveland may not have the money to give him an attractive offer.
- Randy Harvey of the Houston Chronicle writes that Bo Porter won the Astros' job thanks in large part to his high-level of intensity, something that Brad Mills was not known for.