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AL Notes: Lorenzen, Taylor, Grandal

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Angels righty Michael Lorenzen began a rehab assignment yesterday, throwing 47 pitches over three innings for the Triple-A Salt Lake Bees. He went on the injured list July 7, retroactive to July 4, due to a shoulder strain. He was eventually transferred to the 60-day IL, meaning he isn’t eligible to be activated until September 2.

The return of Lorenzen won’t be terribly significant for the Angels, since they are 13 1/2 games out of a playoff spot and won’t be in competition during the final weeks of the season. However, it will be an important stretch for Lorenzen personally as he will be heading back into free agency in a few months.

During his time with the Reds, he was frequently deployed as a reliever. But when he reached free agency, he went looking for an opportunity to return to starting, which he found with the Angels. Signed to a one-year, $6.75MM deal, Lorenzen’s return to the rotation went well for a few months. He had a 3.45 ERA through mid-June, having made ten starts. Unfortunately, he allowed 16 earned runs over his next three, ballooning his ERA 4.94. At this point, one could argue that Lorenzen proved himself a capable starter that was just waylaid by an injury, while a pessimist could say he proved he’s better suited to shorter stints out of the bullpen. Teams on the lookout for pitching this winter will keep an eye on how he fares in the coming weeks, with Lorenzen surely hoping to tip the scales with a strong finish to the campaign.

Some other notes from around the Junior Circuit…

  • Astros lefty Blake Taylor is being pulled off his rehab assignment, tweets Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. General manager James Click says that Taylor is dealing with “posterior elbow discomfort.” Taylor’s been on the IL since June due to elbow discomfort. Click tried to downplay the update, but the fact that the rehab is being paused is noteworthy. With just over six weeks remaining in the season, there’s not much time left to restart a rehab and get back to the team. The club has been shorthanded in terms of left-handed relief all year, with Taylor’s 16 innings leading the team. Deadline acquisition Will Smith is currently the only southpaw in the bullpen. However, it seems the team can probably do just fine regardless, as lefties have hit just .217/.299/.299 against Houston’s bullpen overall this year.
  • White Sox catcher Yasmani Grandal left Saturday’s game with an obvious injury, having to be helped off the field. With only about six weeks left on the schedule, some folks were understandably worried that his season might have ended right then and there. Thankfully, it’s been nothing but good news since. Yesterday, the club announced that further testing revealed no serious damage and that Grandal could return to action in 10-14 days. Today, Grandal is walking around the clubhouse as if the injury never occurred, tweets Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Manager Tony La Russa says that Grandal is getting treatment but also swinging in the cage already. The backstop is having a down year, particularly in the power department. He only has three homers on the season, after hitting more than 20 in each of the previous five full seasons. But he still walks in 12.4% of his plate appearances and could be a difference maker if he can quickly return to health and rediscover his power stroke.

Astros Prospect Drew Gilbert Suffers Season-Ending Dislocated Elbow

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  • Drew Gilbert’s first pro season is already over due to a dislocation in his right elbow, the Astros announced.  (Hat tip to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle.)  Gilbert hasn’t played since August 13, when he suffered a forearm contusion after a collision with the outfield wall in a game for the Astros’ A-ball affiliate.  However, according to the team, a further medical exam revealed that Gilbert “had sustained a dislocated right elbow that spontaneously went back into place before he was examined.”  The 21-year-old Gilbert was the 28th overall pick of the 2022 draft, and MLB Pipeline already ranks the University of Tennessee product as the second-best prospect in the Astros’ farm system.

Latest On Yordan Alvarez

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Yordan Alvarez left Friday’s game in the fifth inning due to shortness of breath, and went to a local hospital for examination later that evening.  Both the Astros and manager Dusty Baker addressed the situation today, saying that Alvarez was released from hospital after tests revealed nothing abnormal, and the slugger was even back at the ballpark today, though he wasn’t in the starting lineup for the Astros’ game against the Braves.

Baker even suggested that Alvarez could play on Sunday, though “We still have to watch him. He’s still under (something) similar to a concussion protocol,” the manager told The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome and other reporters.  “You don’t want him to maybe fall out.  They couldn’t find anything, but that don’t mean nothing’s wrong.  We’re just going to wait today, see how he is tomorrow.”

Any sort of breathing issue is naturally cause for concern, though it is a very good sign that Alvarez’s initial round of testing and observation didn’t reveal any more serious problem.  It could be that Alvarez was affected by playing in Atlanta in particular, with Baker noting that there is more smoke than usual in the atmosphere due to Truist Park’s tradition of shooting fireworks every time a Braves player homers, or every time a Braves pitcher records a strikeout.

Alvarez is also working through his first real slump of the 2022 season, as he has only one home run and a .572 OPS over his last 78 plate appearances.  However, even with his cold streak, Alvarez is still batting .295/.400/.612 for the season, and his 31 homers ties him for the third-highest total in baseball.  The season has cemented Alvarez as one of the game’s top hitters, and he will be a major factor for the Astros as they try to capture the World Series.

Astros Select David Hensley, Designate Jonathan Bermudez

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6:00PM: Houston officially announced the selection of Hensley’s contract.  In corresponding moves, first baseman J.J. Matijevic was optioned to Triple-A and left-hander Jonathan Bermudez was designated for assignment.

Bermudez was a 23rd-round pick for the Astros in the 2018 draft.  The lefty reached Triple-A for the first time in 2021, but has badly struggled at the top minor league level this season, posting an 8.96 ERA over 67 1/3 innings, allowing 16 home runs.

2:30PM: The Astros are calling up utility player David Hensley, reports Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Hensley is not currently on Houston’s 40-man roster, meaning a corresponding move of some kind will be required to open a spot for him.

Hensley, 26, has never been a highly-touted prospect, having been selected by the Astros in the 26th round of the 2018 draft. However, he has increased his stock immensely in the past two seasons. Last year, he played 105 games at Double-A, slashing .293/.369/.439, production that amounted to a wRC+ of 118, or 18% better than league average. This year, he’s taken another step forward, slashing .298/.420/.478 in 104 Triple-A games. He’s increased his walk rate to an incredible 17.2% after being at 10.3% last year.

Beyond his work at the plate, Hensley also brings defensive versatility, having played all four infield positions this year, in addition to a brief showing in left field. There’s also the speed element, as he stole 11 bags last year and 20 already this season. All told, he should bring a well-rounded game up to Houston. Baseball America recently ranked him the #11 prospect in the team’s system, which was the first time he cracked one of their top 30 lists.

The Astros placed Aledmys Diaz on the injured list earlier this week, which left Mauricio Dubon as the club’s primary utility player. However, Dubon appeared to injure himself during last night’s game, crashing into the outfield wall while attempting to make a catch. It’s unclear if Dubon will require a stint on the injured list, but it seems the club will add Hensley to the roster for support either way.

Injury Notes: Díaz, Garcia, Rios

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The Astros announced that utility player Aledmys Díaz has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to left groin discomfort. His roster spot will go to first baseman/outfielder J.J. Matijevic, who has been recalled.

Díaz, 32, is having a nice season, serving as a super utility option for Houston. He’s played all four infield positions and also the outfield corners, hitting .252/.303/.417 for a wRC+ of 108. Given that versatility, his absence will cut into the club’s depth pretty much everywhere around the diamond, except for center field and behind the plate. Injuries have become something of a recurring theme for Díaz, as this is now the fifth straight season where he’s landed on the IL.

Mauricio Dubón, who has played everywhere except first base and catcher this season, will now be the club’s primary utility option. The club hasn’t indicated how long they expect Diaz to be out of action. He is slated to reach free agency at the end of this season.

Some other IL moves from around the league…

  • The White Sox announced that their own utility player, Leury Garcia, has been placed on the 10-day IL due to a lower back strain. Infielder Romy Gonzalez was recalled to take his place on the active roster. Garcia, 31, has certainly provided the Sox with versatility, having played every non-pitching position except for catcher and first base. However, unlike Díaz, he’s not having a strong campaign. In 288 plate appearances this year, he’s batting .212/.238/.275 for a wRC+ of just 44. He is in the first season of a three-year, $16.5MM contract that he signed with Chicago prior to this year. It’s unclear how long the club expects him to be out of action.
  • The Dodgers announced that infielder Edwin Ríos has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City. The club had a vacancy on its 40-man roster, so no corresponding move was required. Ríos, 28, suffered a hamstring tear in early June and had been out of action until beginning a rehab assignment in late July. Prior to landing on the IL, he had a nice showing in 27 big league games, hitting .244/.293/.500 for a wRC+ of 119.

Astros Reinstate Lance McCullers Jr. From 60-Day Injured List

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Right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. has been activated from the 60-day injured list to start the Astros’ game against the Athletics today.  In corresponding moves, outfielder Michael Brantley (who just underwent season-ending shoulder surgery) was moved to the 60-day IL, while right-hander Seth Martinez was optioned to Triple-A.

McCullers will be taking the hill for the first time since October 12, when he tossed four innings in Game 4 of the ALDS — a 10-2 win that clinched Houston’s series win over the White Sox.   A flexor tendon forearm strain then sidelined McCullers for the remainder of the Astros’ postseason run and for much of this 2022 season, as a setback during the rehab process delayed the right-hander from making his debut until today.

A healthy McCullers represents a nice late-season boost to a rotation that is already arguably baseball’s best.  McCullers’ impending return allowed Houston the luxury of moving Jake Odorizzi at the trade deadline, as the Astros can slot McCullers right into a six-man rotation that also includes Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, and Cristian Javier.  That pitching depth also extends to the bullpen, as on most teams, Martinez’s 2.48 ERA in 32 2/3 innings would merit a larger role, not a demotion to the minors.

Even amidst all these other quality arms, McCullers can certainly factor into the Astros’ starting plans for this year’s postseason, as the Astros again look to make a deep October run.  McCullers has a 3.35 ERA over his last 217 1/3 innings in the regular season, since returning from the Tommy John surgery that erased his entire 2019 campaign.  In 2021, McCullers factored into Cy Young Award voting for the first time, finishing seventh on the ballot.

Michael Brantley Undergoes Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

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The Astros announced Friday that outfielder Michael Brantley, who has been out since June due to a shoulder issue, underwent an arthroscopic procedure to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. The surgery will end his season.

Since Brantley was placed on the injured list, the Astros have been vague regarding the nature of Brantley’s injury. General manager James Click said in July that there were no updates on Brantley other than that the team was waiting for inflammation in his shoulder to subside. Acting manager Joe Espada (filling in while Dusty Baker was out due to Covid-19) said earlier this week that Brantley was seeking a second opinion.

Today’s announcement is the first indication of structural damage within the shoulder. This is the second time in Brantley’s career that he’s required surgery on this shoulder; he also suffered a small tear in his labrum late in the 2015 campaign and eventually underwent surgery that November.

Brantley, 35, is the second season of a two-year, $32MM contract with the Astros. It’s the second consecutive two-year, $32MM deal he’s signed with Houston, where he’s now played since the 2019 campaign. He’s appeared in 64 games and taken 277 plate appearances this season, batting .288/.370/.418 with five homers, 14 doubles and a triple. In all, Brantley has batted a combined .306/.368/.464 in just over 1600 regular-season plate appearances as an Astro, plus an additional 211 plate appearances of .314/.376/.408 production in the postseason.

If that’s the end of Brantley’s run with the Houston franchise, he’ll go down as an immensely successful veteran signing. There’s no option on Brantley’s contract, so he’s set to become a free agent in a couple months’ time. The Astros did not provide a timetable for when he might return to playing. The Astros’ announcement added that Click will speak to reporters in a couple hours, so further updates could be provided at that time.

The ’Stros have been dealing with Brantley’s absence for some time already, most regularly turning to Chas McCormick, Yordan Alvarez and Aledmys Diaz in his absence. Houston acquired Trey Mancini from the Orioles prior to the Aug. 2 trade deadline, but Baker has voiced a reluctance to play him in the outfield, given Mancini’s limited outfield work in recent seasons. (More broadly, he’s opted to sit Mancini nearly as often as start him since the trade, much to the chagrin of Astros fans.)

Subtracting Brantley from the outfield mix entirely puts a damper on the potential postseason roster, as players like McCormick and Diaz — generally viewed as depth/bench options — will now be pressed into more full-time duty. Add in the ongoing struggles of center fielder Jake Meyers, who’s batting just .218/.260/.328 this season (and .147/.205/.221 over his past 23 games), and the outfield is at least a potential area of concern for the remainder of the year. It also stands out as a natural area of focus for Click and his staff in the coming offseason, whether they pursue a Brantley reunion or look for alternatives on the free-agent and/or trade markets.

Michael Brantley Going For Second Opinion On Injured Shoulder

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The Astros have been without Michael Brantley for six weeks, and there’s no clear timetable for his potential return. Acting manager Joe Espada told reporters this afternoon that the veteran outfielder was currently away from the team as he sought a second opinion on his injured right shoulder (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Espada declined to elaborate when asked whether that meant surgery was on the table.

Houston hasn’t revealed many specifics about Brantley’s injury — the Astros tend to play things close to the vest when providing health updates generally — but the announcement of a second opinion certainly seems alarming. It comes just days after general manager James Click acknowledged that “with every passing day, you have to kind of take an honest look” at whether the five-time All-Star will be able to make it back at all in 2022. At the very least, it doesn’t seem he’ll be back imminently.

Owners of an 11-game cushion in the AL West, the Astros can certainly afford to play things cautiously with their injured players. They’d obviously love to top the Yankees for home field advantage in the American League playoff field, but Houston’s a virtual lock to hold onto one of the top two seeds in the Junior Circuit to earn a first-round bye. Still, it’d be ideal to get Brantley some at-bats late in the regular campaign to get back to game speed before the playoffs. Whether the 35-year-old will be able to make it back at any point, regular season or postseason, appears murky.

Losing Brantley for the postseason, if it comes to that, would be a tough blow to the Houston lineup. He’s remained one of the game’s preeminent “professional hitters,” carrying a .288/.370/.416 line across 277 plate appearances. Brantley only has five home runs, but he’s picked up 14 doubles and walked more often than he’s struck out (11.2% against 10.8%, respectively). He’s in the waning months of the two-year, $32MM contract he signed to return to Houston over the 2020-21 offseason.

Since Brantley went down, the club has relied on Chas McCormick and Aledmys Díaz as its primary left field options. Both players are having nice seasons, but Díaz is the top depth infielder while McCormick would be in the best position to take center field playing time if the team were to move away from the struggling Jake Meyers. They’ve rotated Yordan Alvarez into left field on occasion, but keeping him primarily at designated hitter could be the best way to ensure he’s holding up physically to have his bat in the lineup on a daily basis. Rome tweeted yesterday that newly-acquired Trey Mancini was taking some pregame reps in left field as well. Mancini started 13 games in the corner outfield with the Orioles this season but spent the bulk of his time at either first base or designated hitter. He’s not logged substantial outfield playing time since 2019.

While the club awaits further word on Brantley, they are set to receive one notable reinforcement over the next few days. Lance McCullers Jr. will be reinstated from the 60-day injured list to start Saturday against the A’s, Espada announced (via Mark Berman of Fox 26). It’ll be the righty’s season debut, his first appearance since he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm during last year’s postseason. Houston will need to create a vacancy on the 40-man roster, although that can be achieved by transferring Brantley to the 60-day injured list (a procedural move since the outfielder certainly won’t be ready for an MLB return within the next two weeks).

McCullers has made four rehab starts over the past couple weeks. He topped out at five innings and 86 pitches with Triple-A Sugar Land on Sunday. It’s unlikely the Astros will throw him right back into a typical starter’s workload out of the gate, but he should have plenty of time to build into that role before the postseason gets underway.

It’s another addition to a rotation that already boasts the majors second-best ERA (3.18). McCullers was arguably the team’s top pitcher in 2021, tossing 162 1/3 innings of 3.16 ERA ball with a quality 27% strikeout rate and an excellent 56.4% ground-ball percentage. If he recaptures that kind of form after nearly a year of rehab, he’ll add another high-octane arm to a playoff rotation that’s sure to feature Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez and could also include any of Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier or José Urquidy.

MLBTR Poll: Justin Verlander’s Next Contract

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Last winter, Max Scherzer hit the open market as one of the more unique free agents in recent memory. While most baseball players, and athletes of all kinds, generally decline in quality as they get farther from their 20s, Scherzer was 37 and still playing at an elite level. Though last year was his age-36 season, he turned 37 years old on July 27th. (A player’s age on July 1 is generally considered to be their age for the year.) In that year, he threw 179 1/3 innings and somehow registered a career-best 2.46 ERA. Though he got ground balls at a below-average 33.5% clip, his 34.1% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate were both much better than the mean. He also added 16 1/2 innings of 2.16 ERA ball in the postseason, just for a little icing on the cake.

So, how do you value an elite pitcher who is 37 years old? The answer from the market was high salary over a short term. Scherzer received a three-year deal covering his age-37 through age-39 seasons, with Scherzer turning 40 in the last year of the deal. The deal comes with a $130MM guarantee, spread out evenly with a $43.33MM salary in each year. That AAV shattered the previous record, which was Gerrit Cole’s $36MM. Scherzer can also opt out of the deal after the second year.

This winter might feature a similar but perhaps more extreme free agent. Justin Verlander threw only six innings in 2020 before Tommy John surgery wiped out the rest of that season and all of 2021. After returning to health, he held a showcase for interested teams, eventually re-signing for the Astros. The contract guaranteed him $25MM for 2022, despite having barely pitched for two years. It also came with a $25MM player option for 2023, conditional on Verlander reaching 130 innings pitched this year. Verlander has already surpassed that mark, allowing him to cash in another $25MM salary next year.

However, he’s pitching so well this season that he’s likely to decline his option and return to the open market in search of a larger payday. Through exactly 130 innings coming into tonight, he has a 1.73 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate and 37.4% ground ball rate. The strikeouts aren’t as high as Scherzer’s were last season, but his ERA is significantly better, with a lower walk rate and better ground ball rate.

Verlander is older than Scherzer, having turned 39 years old in February. However, if he got an annual average value of $25MM after two lost seasons, what would he get after a Cy Young-caliber campaign, even if he is one year older? It will be a fascinating and unprecedented experiment. Verlander could rightly ask for a similar AAV to Scherzer, in the $40-45MM range, depending on how strong he finishes. But how much term will teams be willing to commit to a player about to enter his age-40 season? How many teams will be willing to go to two years? Will any go to three like they did for Scherzer?

But then what does Verlander want? Would he prefer something like a one-year, $50MM deal or try to land around $40MM annually spread out over three years? Verlander has previously said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s, perhaps pointing towards the latter option, but we can’t really know.

MLBTR readers, what do you think? Below are two polls, one for what kind of term you think Verlander will get and another for what kind of guarantee. Let us know your thoughts.

(link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

(link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League

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Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

  • James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

  • Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

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