MLBTR Poll: AL West Winner
Heading into play Tuesday, there’s only one division where the lead is two games or fewer. That’s the AL West, which has a pair of teams within two games of the frontrunner. Whoever wins the division is very likely to get a first-round bye — all three teams are at least five games clear of the AL Central-leading Twins — adding extra incentive for the clubs to secure more than a Wild Card spot.
With the Angels now 11 games out and the A’s on their way to 110+ losses, we’ll take a look at the three remaining teams with a plausible path to contention:
Texas Rangers, 72-53 (lead division by 1.5 games)
The Rangers have had a share of the division lead for all but one day of the season. They’ve been in sole possession of first place going back to May 6, stretching their margin out to 6.5 games in the final week of June. Texas has allowed the gap to close in recent weeks, playing slightly below .500 ball between June and July. They rebounded to win 10 of 11 to start August but have dropped six of eight since then (including five in a row).
Texas has been far and away the best offensive team in the division. They trail only Atlanta overall in runs and all three slash stats. They’ve cooled off a bit following a scorching start, ranking eighth in scoring since the All-Star Break. Even after losing Jacob deGrom, the rotation has held up remarkably well — and deadline acquisitions Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery couldn’t have performed much better through their respective first four starts in a Ranger uniform.
The biggest question mark, as has been the case the entire season, is the bullpen. Texas relievers rank 25th in ERA overall; they’re 24th with a 4.96 figure since the start of the second half. The front office added to the relief corps this summer, bringing in Aroldis Chapman and Chris Stratton. They’ve each been effective (although Chapman blew a save in last night’s extra-inning loss in Arizona) but the group has been shaky enough overall to contribute to a handful of frustrating defeats.
Texas is 9-17 in one-run contests and 2-5 in games that go to extra innings. There’s probably some amount of poor fortune baked into that mark, but it’s hard to attribute those struggles all to luck (particularly after the Rangers were a staggering 15-35 in one-run games a season ago).
Among all major league teams, only the Braves have a superior run differential to the Rangers’ +184 mark. Few teams are capable of bludgeoning an opponent the way Texas can. Can they lock down enough tight games to hold off their two top competitors?
Houston Astros, 71-55 (1.5 games back of Texas, 0.5 ahead of Seattle)
The defending World Series winners entered the season as the favorites to capture another AL West crown. Yet this year’s Houston club, while very good, hasn’t played at the same level as last year’s 106-win squad.
That’s primarily a reflection of a step back on the pitching front. Last year’s club finished the regular season eighth in run scoring; they’re sixth in that regard this season. Their run prevention has regressed a bit, as they’ve dropped from second to fifth in ERA. After finishing second in the majors with a 26% strikeout rate a season ago, they’re down to ninth (at 24%) this year.
It’s certainly not a bad pitching staff — Houston is still in the upper third of the league in most categories — but injuries slowed them early in the year. Luis Garcia won’t return from Tommy John surgery. They got nothing from Lance McCullers Jr. because of persistent forearm issues. Allowing Justin Verlander to depart in free agency subtracted the defending Cy Young winner for the season’s first few months. He’s back in the fold but hasn’t been as dominant in 2023 as he was a year ago. José Urquidy missed a couple months with shoulder issues, while Cristian Javier has been inconsistent after an excellent start to the year.
Strong rookie showings from Hunter Brown and J.P. France were instrumental in keeping the club afloat while Garcia, McCullers and Urquidy were on the injured list. With Urquidy now healthy and Verlander back, Houston’s rotation again runs six deep. The lineup is nearing full strength with Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez healthy and Michael Brantley on a rehab stint. First baseman José Abreu is in an uncertain spot because of a back injury, though he hasn’t produced even when healthy.
The Astros have never really had a chance to fire on all cylinders. They haven’t spent a single day with even a share of first place since losing on Opening Day. They’ve hung around, though, and they’re getting closer to trotting out the roster they’ve more or less envisioned.
Seattle Mariners, 70-55 (2 games back of Texas, 0.5 back of Houston)
The Mariners have been the hottest team in the American League over the past two months. Seattle had been remarkably average for the first few months, never winning nor losing more than four consecutive games through the end of July. Even after going 17-9 in July, the M’s trod an uncertain course at the deadline. They dealt away closer Paul Sewald to add MLB-ready but more controllable offensive help in the form of Dominic Canzone and Josh Rojas. Unlike their division rivals in Arlington, Houston and even Anaheim, the Mariners didn’t make any headline-grabbing deadline acquisitions.
No matter, Seattle is an AL-best 15-4 since the calendar flipped to August. They’ve rattled off separate win streaks of seven-plus games (the latter of which is ongoing) this month. Part of the front office’s logic in trading Sewald was their confidence the bullpen was deep enough to remain excellent; the relief corps is indeed fourth in ERA and fifth in strikeout rate since the deadline.
Seattle’s rotation has been among the league’s best all year. They lead the majors in innings and rank sixth in ERA. Rookies Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo have stepped in well behind the star trio of George Kirby, Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert. The biggest recent turnaround has been the offense. A lineup which president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto frankly conceded four weeks ago was “an average major league offense” trails only Atlanta and Philadelphia in scoring this month.
After accounting for the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, they lead the league in wRC+ in August. They’ve gotten contributions throughout the batting order. Of the 11 Seattle hitters with 40+ plate appearances, only Rojas has posted below-average numbers. Julio Rodríguez has arguably been the best player on the planet over the past three weeks, while Ty France and Teoscar Hernández have caught fire after previously underwhelming seasons by their standards.
All of a sudden, the Mariners are firmly within striking distance of what could be their first division title since 2001. They’ll control their own destiny into the season’s final week and a half. As Mike Petriello of MLB.com observed (on Twitter), Seattle’s final three series are against the clubs they’re trying to track down. They’ll finish the regular season with a three-game set in Arlington, three at home against Houston, and then four more against the Rangers at T-Mobile Park.
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How does the MLBTR readership envision things playing out? Which team will take home the division crown, and for good measure, how many teams from the AL West will snag a Wild Card berth?
(poll links for app users)
Which Team Will Win The AL West?
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Mariners 40% (2,168)
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Rangers 30% (1,632)
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Astros 29% (1,559)
Total votes: 5,359
How Many AL Wild Card Teams Will Come From The West?
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2 71% (2,643)
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1 29% (1,069)
Total votes: 3,712
The Astros’ Potential Outfield Surplus
Entering the season, the outfield was an area of some uncertainty on an excellent Houston roster. Kyle Tucker is an established star in right field. The other two positions were more questionable. Before Opening Day, Houston brass has suggested they planned to divide left field and designated hitter reps between Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley. As it has been for a couple seasons, center field looked to involve a battle for playing time between Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers.
Brantley’s recovery from last summer’s shoulder surgery hasn’t been as smooth as hoped. The five-time All-Star began the season on the injured list, leaving rookie Corey Julks to assume the LF/DH hybrid role alongside Alvarez. Julks has had some good stretches of play but been equally prone to extended slumps. He owns a .245/.299/.353 line in his first 86 big league contests and is currently in Triple-A.
Various setbacks have continued to keep Brantley out of action all season. When Alvarez suffered an oblique strain in mid-June — an injury that’d cost him six weeks — it looked as if the outfield and/or DH could be a problem. Not only has that not been the case, Houston’s outfield has thrived.
Since Alvarez first went on the IL on June 9, Houston outfielders are hitting .281/.370/.504 in 745 trips to the plate. They trail only the Braves’ group in on-base percentage and slugging. They’re third in on-base and sixth in slugging if one also includes DH production (where Alvarez would obviously have seen some time had he been healthy for that entire stretch).
In large part, that’s thanks to Tucker. He’ll find his name on MVP ballots for a third consecutive season. The star right fielder has raked at a .323/.410/.610 clip over that stretch and is hitting .297/.377/.526 overall. Alvarez has picked up where he’d left off since returning on July 26, putting up a .282/.378/.521 mark in 19 games.
It isn’t just the established superstars though. McCormick was a quietly productive player over his first two big league seasons and has found a new gear in 2023. Over 313 plate appearances, he owns a .288/.378/.539 batting line. Of the 215 hitters with 300+ trips to the plate, McCormick ranks 18th in OBP and 12th in slugging. He has been on a particular tear of late, with a .317/.410/.593 slash since June 9.
McCormick’s strikeout and walk rates aren’t much different from his prior two seasons. His average exit velocity and hard contact percentage haven’t changed and he’s unlikely to maintain a .363 average on balls in play. Yet his uptick in production isn’t entirely about batted ball fortune. McCormick is hitting for more power than he did in his first two seasons, at least in part reflecting a conscious change in his offensive approach.
Eno Sarris of the Athletic recently chatted with the right-handed hitter about a mechanical tweak he’d made to become more upright in his stance. The goal was to open his front shoulder slightly in order to allow him to become more pull-oriented. McCormick has always had raw power, but an extreme opposite-field approach muted some of that production. Pulled fly balls clear the fence at a much higher rate than flies to center or the opposite field. Few hitters pulled the ball in the air less often than McCormick between 2021-22. That didn’t stop him from being a good player, but it left some power potential on the table (particularly with the Crawford boxes only 315 feet down the left field line in Houston).
The change certainly seems to be paying off. His rate of pulled fly balls this season is nearly twice that of the previous two years. While he’s not hitting the ball harder overall, his average exit velocity on fly balls specifically is a personal high. The production has followed. Even if his BABIP takes a step back, McCormick should be a better offensive player than he’d been over his first two seasons and certainly looks deserving of everyday playing time.
Lately, that has mostly come in left field. Brantley could soon cut into those corner outfield reps. The veteran began a rehab assignment at Triple-A Sugar Land on Tuesday. Barring another setback, he could rejoin the big league club within the next two weeks. Skipper Dusty Baker will likely carefully monitor Brantley’s workload to ease the stress on his shoulder, but a healthy Brantley can be a key table-setter and adds a left-handed bat to a righty-heavy Houston lineup.
McCormick can play center field, so Meyers’ playing time might be most adversely impacted by Brantley’s expected return. Meyers isn’t having a great offensive season, hitting .227/.303/.385 over 304 trips to the plate. He started the year well, but unlike Tucker and McCormick, he has struggled at the dish going back to the beginning of June. Meyers is an excellent defensive center fielder, though. In 710 1/3 innings this season, he has rated between six and eight runs better than average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast. (In his career, he’s been between 13 and 18 runs above average over 1406 frames.) Plugging Brantley in left, pushing McCormick to center, and moving Meyers to the bench should improve the lineup but will downgrade the defense.
It’s an enviable “problem” to have. Potentially juggling four starting-caliber outfielders helps Houston’s chances of tracking down their in-state rivals in a closely contested AL West. There’s likely to be some degree of concern about Brantley’s shoulder holding up down the stretch. Perhaps he or Alvarez could rotate through first base on occasion, at least while José Abreu is out. However Baker manages it, the outfield looks like a strength for the Astros as they enter the home stretch. And, with each of Alvarez (signed through 2028), Tucker (controlled through 2025), McCormick (controlled through 2026) and Meyers (controlled through 2027) standing as long-term pieces, their outfield outlook looks increasingly bright.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Astros, Andrew Knapp Agree To Minor League Deal
The Astros are in agreement on a minor league pact with catcher Andrew Knapp, the club informed reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Athletic). He’ll report to Triple-A Sugar Land.
Knapp had been released from a minor league pact with the Tigers last week. The switch-hitting backstop had a respectable 70-game run with their top affiliate in Toledo, hitting .253/.337/.397 through 267 plate appearances. He struck out in just over a quarter of his trips but walked at a solid 10.1% clip.
While he didn’t get to the majors in Detroit, the former second-round draftee has seen a fair bit of MLB action. Knapp has played parts of six campaigns, five of which came in Philadelphia. He got brief stints with each of Pittsburgh, Seattle and San Francisco last year. In 325 career games, Knapp is a .209/.310/.313 hitter. Statcast has given him below-average grades for his framing and blocking. He has a modest 18.8% caught stealing rate at the MLB level but has cut down a solid 28.2% of baserunners this year in Triple-A.
Knapp brings plenty of experience as a non-roster option in the upper minors. There’s little need for catching help at the big league level, where Martín Maldonado is ensconced as the top option and backup Yainer Diaz is having a strong rookie season. The only other catcher on the 40-man roster is César Salazar, a 27-year-old with 13 games of big league experience. Knapp adds a veteran presence as injury insurance. Since he’s in the organization before September 1, he’d be eligible for postseason play if the Astros qualify.
AL West Notes: Brantley, Heim, Ohtani
It has been over a year since Michael Brantley underwent shoulder surgery and even longer (June 26, 2022) since the veteran slugger appeared in a big league game. However, Brantley’s long recovery process may finally be nearing an end, as Astros GM Dana Brown told 790 AM’s Robert Ford in a radio interview today (hat tip to Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle) that Brantley might begin a minor league rehab assignment within a week’s time. “This was the time where we really started to grind [Brantley] a little bit where he got sore and the fact that he’s pushing through this, there’s no soreness,” Brown said. “He’s feeling really good, this feels like a special moment to try get that left-handed bat back….So hopefully he continues to feel well.”
The Astros were confident enough in Brantley’s recovery to sign him to a one-year, $12MM free agent deal last winter, though an initial expectation of an Opening Day return was delayed a season-opening stint on the injured list. Brantley was then expected back early in May except another setback shut down his rehab entirely, and he had to briefly shut things down again July after restarting his hitting work in June. Brown’s comments today provide some fresh optimism, but considering Brantley has yet to face live pitching, it may still be a while before he is fully ramped up and ready for MLB competition. Speculatively, Brantley might be on track for a September return if all goes well, which could provide the Astros with a nice boost for the stretch run and perhaps into the playoffs.
More from the AL West…
- The Rangers activated catcher Jonah Heim from the 10-day injured list today, and optioned Sam Huff to Triple-A in the corresponding move. After a left wrist tendon strain sent Heim to the IL on July 27, he returns within the 2-3 week recovery timeline that was initially projected at the time of his placement. Heim’s outstanding performance in the first half earned an All-Star nod, though his absence hasn’t slowed the Rangers down at all, in part because Mitch Garver has also been hitting up a storm in a part-time catching role. Even if Heim’s wrist problem limits him to being a left-handed batter rather than a switch-hitter, Garver’s presence should guard Texas against any sort of offensive dropoff behind the plate.
- Shohei Ohtani will skip his next scheduled start due to arm fatigue, Angels manager Phil Nevin told the Associated Press and other media. Ohtani was initially slated to face the Rangers on Wednesday, but due to what Nevin described as “some normal arm fatigue that happens at times,” the Halos will now hold Ohtani’s next start back until a series with the Reds that begins on August 21. The arm issue won’t prevent Ohtani from his usual regular DH duty, and the two-way superstar underlined that point by hitting a home run (his 41st of the season) in the Angels’ 2-1 victory over the Astros today.
Astros Place Jose Abreu, Phil Maton On Injured List
The Astros announced that first baseman Jose Abreu has been placed on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to August 10), and that right-hander Phil Maton has been placed on the 15-day IL. Abreu is dealing with lumbar spine inflammation while Maton has a right elbow contusion. Infielder David Hensley and left-hander Parker Mushinski were called up from Triple-A in corresponding moves.
Abreu’s back has been an issue for both the last few days, and for much of the season, as he revealed to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome (Twitter links) and other reporters today. The IL placement seemed to be sparked when an MRI revealed the inflammation, and Abreu received two cortisone shots to help ease the discomfort.
The back problem continues what has been a rough debut season for the veteran first baseman in Houston. After signing a three-year, $58.5MM free agent contract with the Astros last winter, Abreu has stumbled to a .234/.291/.343 slash line and 10 homers over 464 plate appearances. Abreu and the Rockies’ Jurickson Profar each have a 75 wRC+, tied for the lowest wRC+ of any player in baseball with at least 450 PA in the 2023 campaign.
It has been a surprising result for a player who was so consistently productive over his nine previous seasons with the White Sox, and yet Abreu made a point of not using his back problems as an excuse, telling Rome and company “this is not a justification for the hitter I’ve been for the past four months.”
The Astros selected Jon Singleton‘s contract from Triple-A earlier this week, and the former top prospect will continue to get a good chunk of the first base playing time while Abreu is sidelined. Hensley and Mauricio Dubon could also chip in, though Houston might also opt to use Yainer Diaz more often at the cold corner, when Diaz isn’t catching. The rookie has hit very well in his first extended taste of MLB action, and the Astros have been using first base and the DH spot to keep Diaz in the lineup when Martin Maldonado is behind the plate.
Maton was hit in the elbow by a line drive in Friday’s game, which forced him to make an early exit from his relief outing. Rome reports that initial x-rays didn’t show a fracture, but Maton will undergo more x-rays and an MRI in due course.
Injuries have plagued Houston’s rotation all season, but the bullpen has been relatively healthy, and a big reason why the Astros have been able to largely withstand their thinned-out starting staff. Maton has enjoyed a very solid campaign, posting a 3.04 ERA and an above-average 26.2% strikeout rate. Though Maton isn’t a hard thrower and his walk rate is below average, he has elite spin rates and his fastball and curveball, and his 23.1% hard-hit ball rate is the lowest in the majors.
The Astros can only hope that the further scans don’t reveal a more serious problem for Maton, as the club needs their bullpen to keep contributing during the playoff push. Houston already added to their relief depth in acquiring Kendall Graveman at the trade deadline, a move that looks even shrewder now that Maton will miss at least the next 15 days.
Astros Outright Bligh Madris
Aug. 10: Madris went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Sugar Land, tweets Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle.
Aug. 8: The Astros announced that outfielder Bligh Madris has been designated for assignment. His roster spot will go to Jon Singleton, whose selection was reported yesterday.
Madris, 27, has been bounced on and off the Houston rosters this year, both the active and 40-man versions. Acquired from the Tigers in an offseason cash deal, he didn’t make the Astros out of Spring Training and was designated for assignment on Opening Day. He cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A, sticking in the organization. He was added back to the club’s roster in June but was put into just 12 games in a span of over one month before being optioned a couple of weeks ago.
Between his stint with the Astros this year and the Pirates last year, he’s hit just .173/.248/.252 in 153 major league plate appearances. He’s generally fared much better in the minors, including a line of .243/.357/.442 in Triple-A this year. Though in the offensively-charged environment of the Pacific Coast League, that amounts to a wRC+ of just 92.
With the trade deadline now in the past, the Astros will have no choice but to place Madris on outright waivers or release waivers. Since he was previously outrighted, he would have the right to reject a second such assignment in favor of electing free agency. Though this year hasn’t been amazing, he hit .297/.366/.510 in the minors last year and still has a couple of option years, including this one, as well as less than a year of service time. He could potentially be a long-term depth piece for any club willing to give him a 40-man roster spot.
Astros Notes: Tucker, Abreu, Rotation
The Astros and right fielder Kyle Tucker discussed a long-term contract in the offseason and into spring training, but no deal was reached by the time the season got underway, and general manager Dana Brown noted at the time that negotiations were “paused” for the time being. Brown piqued the fan base’s interest in his weekly appearance on 790 AM’s Sean Salisbury Show that he’s optimistic the two sides will work out a deal and that Tucker will spend his career with the Astros. He later clarified, however, that talks have yet to resume since being put on hold (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).
The 26-year-old Tucker has delivered in spades both on his lofty draft status (No. 5 overall in 2015) and his top-prospect billing. Already a two-time All-Star and a 2022 Gold Glove winner, he’s in the midst of perhaps the finest season of his exceptional young career. In 113 games and 481 plate appearances, Tucker has slashed .296/.377/.517 with 21 home runs, 28 doubles and 24 stolen bases (in 27 attempts). He’s just one steal shy of last year’s career-high mark, and he’s on pace for his third consecutive 30-homer season. This year’s 11.6% walk rate is easily a career-high mark, while his 12.9% strikeout rate is both a personal low and the ninth-lowest mark among all qualified big league hitters.
Tucker entered the 2023 season with 3.079 years of big league service and will finish at 4.079, leaving him arbitration-eligible for another two seasons. Given his age, draft/prospect pedigree and general excellence to date, there’s little reason to expect any sort of downturn in the near future. Were Tucker to naturally reach free agency by accruing six years of MLB service, he’d do so heading into his age-29 season — and likely in position to command a contract in excess of $200MM.
The Astros haven’t necessarily shied away from large payroll commitments, but they’ve typically preferred to mitigate the length of any high-priced deals. Jose Altuve‘s extension promised him five years and $151MM on top of the remaining two years and $12.5MM on his prior contract. Yordan Alvarez‘s six-year, $115MM contract is the longest handed out under owner Jim Crane. That deal covered all three of Alvarez’s arbitration seasons and three would-be free agent years. Tucker is already playing his first arb year on a $5MM salary and will be due a substantial raise this offseason.
Any extension for Tucker would presumably need to top Alvarez’s deal by a good margin — not only in terms of overall guarantee but in terms of length. The six-year term Alvarez landed would cover Tucker’s age-27 through age-32 seasons and set him up for free agency in advance of his age-33 season. It stands to reason that a player of his caliber would more likely be seeking a deal of eight-plus years in length, particularly now that he’s only two seasons removed from hitting the open market in prime position for a mega-deal.
For now, Brown stressed that the focus is squarely on attempting to overtake the Rangers for the lead in the American League West and to engineer another deep postseason run. Tucker will play a focal part of those efforts, of course, but the ‘Stros were dealt some potentially difficult news regarding another key contributor following last night’s game. Manager Dusty Baker told reporters this morning that first baseman Jose Abreu reported discomfort in his lower back following yesterday’s game (Twitter link via Joe Trezza of MLB.com). He’ll be evaluated further this weekend.
Abreu’s first season in Houston has been a forgettable one overall, but the former Rookie of the Year and MVP looked to be rediscovering his form earlier in the summer. After floundering to a .211/.276/.260 slash through his first two months, Abreu came roaring back with a .288/.330/.484 output over his next 200 plate appearances. While not quite his peak form, that was 22% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+, and Abreu looked well on his way to quieting concerns brought about by his sluggish start to the season.
Unfortunately, his production has cratered once again. Abreu has just three hits in his past 39 trips to the plate and has fanned at an uncharacteristic 28.2% clip in that time. It’s unclear how long his back has been ailing, but the recent downturn after an impressive performance in June and July could well be related to the apparent injury with which he’s dealing. The season-long numbers are still ugly (.234/.291/.343), but losing the June/July version of Abreu is a notable hit to any lineup.
Of course, for as many potent bats as the Houston lineup has featured in recent years, elite starting pitching has been a hallmark of Astros clubs throughout their recent peak. The trade deadline return of Justin Verlander should only help to continue that legacy, but the reacquisition of Verlander won’t necessarily cost someone his spot on the starting staff.
Trezza writes that the Astros are likely to move to a six-man rotation, at least for the time being, keeping rookie right-hander J.P. France in the mix. Calling baseball an “earn-it business,” Baker emphasized that France has indeed earned his spot and will stay on turn moving forward.
It’s hard to argue with that characterization. The 28-year-old France has turned in 95 innings of 2.75 ERA ball since making his big league debut earlier this season, emerging as a godsend in the wake of season-ending injuries to Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia. France has had some modest fortune on balls in play (.277 BABIP) and probably can’t continue stranding 81% of his baserunners — league average is 72% — but he’s looked the part of a solid big league starter even when accounting for some potential regression.
Keeping France in the rotation will have other benefits beyond his own performance. Hunter Brown is nearing last year’s total workload with seven weeks of the season yet to play out. Jose Urquidy just returned from a months-long absence due to a shoulder injury. Cristian Javier has been pitching better of late, but he hit a wall midsummer and had his spot in the rotation skipped heading into the All-Star break. Keeping France on the starting staff alongside Verlander, Brown, Javier, Urquidy and Framber Valdez will help the Astros to manage Brown’s workload and exercise caution, as necessary, with Urquidy and Javier.
Athletics Claim Spenser Watkins
The A’s have claimed right-hander Spenser Watkins off waivers from the Astros, as first reported by Jessica Kleinschmidt (Twitter link). He’ll been assigned to Triple-A Las Vegas for the time being. Houston designated Watkins for assignment over the weekend when Jose Urquidy was reinstated from the 60-day injured list.
Watkins, 30, has a bit of major league experience but has been stuck in the minors all year. He tossed 160 innings for the Orioles over 2021 and 2022, allowing 5.85 earned runs per nine innings in that time. He only struck out 13.7% of batters faced but his 6.9% walk rate was quite strong.
This year, the O’s optioned him to Triple-A Norfolk at the end of Spring Training. He spent about a month on the minor league injured list and had only tossed 26 innings for the Tides with a 7.27 ERA by mid-June. He was designated for assignment and flipped to the Astros for cash. He tossed 20 1/3 innings for Triple-A Sugar Land with a 9.74 ERA, before getting his second DFA of the year this past weekend.
The results this year haven’t been great, but it’s likely not quite as bad as his combined 8.35 ERA would indicate. His .386 batting average on balls in play and 55.4% strand rate are both on the unlucky side of average, leading to a 5.27 FIP that’s much more palatable. The most recent chunk of his season was also spent in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, which likely didn’t do him any favors.
The A’s are the worst team in baseball, with a 32-81 record and .283 winning percentage. Their pitching staff has a collective 5.82 ERA that’s easily the worst in the majors. Watkins can provide them with a depth arm that has a bit of major league experience under his belt. He’s in his final option year and will be out of options next season, though he’s yet to reach arbitration and can potentially be controlled for five seasons beyond this one.
Astros To Select Jon Singleton
The Astros are set to select the contract of first baseman Jon Singleton from Triple-A Sugar Land, Singleton himself tells Kristie Rieken of the Associated Press (Twitter link). He’s on his way to join the team in Baltimore. A corresponding 40-man roster move will need to be announced, though Houston already opened a spot on the 26-man roster by optioning Corey Julks to Triple-A earlier today.
The 31-year-old Singleton reached the Majors earlier this season with the Brewers — his first MLB stint since his original run with the Astros in 2014-15. Prior to making his MLB debut, Singleton inked a five-year, $10MM extension with the Astros that included a trio of club options. Both parties took some criticism from detractors, with Singleton in particular drawing flak for potentially selling himself short. In hindsight, taking the deal looks to have paid off; Singleton batted just .171/.290/.333 with the ‘Stros in multiple stints before being released in 2018.
That was the first of three full seasons in which Singleton was out of baseball entirely. He turned up in the Mexican League during the 2021 season and hit well enough to draw looks with the Brewers on minor league contracts in both 2022 and 2023. Though he went just 3-for-29 with the Brewers in his return to MLB action earlier this year (to say nothing of a 34% strikeout rate), Singleton has turned in a combined .289/.409/.567 slash between the Triple-A affiliates for Milwaukee and Houston this season. He’s walked at an exceptional 17.3% clip against just a 20.6% strikeout rate between those two stops.
Houston has been on the lookout for extra left-handed bats for much of the season. Michael Brantley has yet to return to the lineup after signing a one-year, $15MM deal over the winter, as multiple setbacks have popped up in his rehab from shoulder surgery. Yordan Alvarez missed more than a month of the summer with an oblique strain, though he’s back in the lineup and again serving as a middle-of-the-order masher. GM Dana Brown said in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline that he’d love to add a left-handed bat, but no deal ever materialized, so the organization will turn to an old friend and look for a late-blooming breakthrough to help balance out an extremely righty-heavy roster.
Astros Option Corey Julks; Jon Singleton Promotion Under Consideration
The Astros announced Monday that they’ve optioned struggling outfielder Corey Julks to Triple-A Sugar Land. Houston is off for the day, so a corresponding move wasn’t announced, but general manager Dana Brown said just yesterday that the club has been considering a promotion of former top prospect Jon Singleton (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Houston would need to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Singleton if he is indeed called up.
Julks, 27, has been on Houston’s roster since Opening Day but has seen his playing time dwindle in recent weeks as the roster has gotten healthier and as his own production has waned. The 2017 eighth-rounder had a string of four consecutive multi-hit games in early July, but after collecting 11 hits in four days, he’s gone just 3-for-54 in his past 19 games (15 starts).
Julks hit .289/.333/.418 through his first 249 plate appearances this season but did so in large part because of a bloated .365 average on balls in play. That good fortune has completely evaporated (.071 BABIP during this slump), and the rookie outfielder is now hitting just .245/.299/.353 on the season (with a .306 BABIP that’s right in line with league average levels). He’s striking out at a higher-than-average 23.5% mark, while his 7.1% walk rate, 87.7 mph average exit velocity and 34.9% hard-hit rate are all lower than average.
The Astros have been without much in the way of left-handed bats throughout the season, thanks to multiple setbacks in Michael Brantley‘s return from shoulder surgery and an oblique strain that sent Yordan Alvarez to the injured list for more than a month. Singleton could give the ‘Stros a left-handed bat to help balance things out — if he can sustain any semblance of the minor league production he’s shown this year.
Singleton, 31, is a former Astros top prospect who took considerable flak for signing a five-year, $10MM extension with multiple club options before setting foot in the Majors. Critics at the time lamented that the young slugger had sold himself short, but in retrospect Singleton may well be glad he took that deal. No one can say precisely how things would’ve panned out at he declined the offer, but a then 22-year-old Singleton hit just .171/.290/.333 in multiple auditions with the Astros before eventually being released four years later, in 2018.
Out of baseball entirely from 2018-20, Singleton raked in the Mexican League in 2021 and parlayed that performance into minor league deals with the Brewers in 2022 and again this year. Milwaukee even brought Singleton back to the Majors earlier this season — his first MLB action since 2015. That promotion came on the heels of a .258/.384/.483 slash in Triple-A, but Singleton went just 3-for-29 with 11 strikeouts in 32 plate appearances during his brief time as a Brewer. He signed back with the Astros after being released and has since been on a tear in Triple-A.
In 148 trips to the plate with the Space Cowboys, Singleton has batted .333/.446/.692 with a dozen home runs, seven doubles, a 17.6% walk rate and a 23% strikeout rate. For a team that’s been seeking a left-handed bat for some time now, there’s little harm in giving Singleton at least a short-term look — particularly when at least one member of the bench group is struggling to the extent Julks has been of late.
Notably, Rome writes that Brown implied a trade for a left-handed bat never got all that close. Brown indicated that the teams with which he inquired were typically seeking a player of Houston’s Major League roster, and he was not inclined to “weaken our club while we were trying to strengthen our club.” The summer trade market was particularly thin on lefty bats. Switch-hitters Jeimer Candelario (a better right-handed hitter), Josh Bell and Carlos Santana were moved, as was utilityman Jace Peterson, but generally speaking it was a pitching-heavy slate of players that changed hands this summer.