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Brad Ausmus Reportedly Among Astros’ GM Finalists

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Earlier today, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that the Astros have at least three finalists for their GM vacancy: Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown, Guardians assistant GM James Harris and former Giants GM Bobby Evans. That’s not an exhaustive list, however, and Jose de Jesus Ortiz of Our Esquina tweets that former Astros catcher, Tigers/Angels manager and (most recently) A’s bench Brad Ausmus is also among the finalists. Per Ortiz, Brown and Ausmus are the two favorites for the job.

Jumping straight into the GM’s chair would be a first for Ausmus, though it wouldn’t be his first stint in a big league front office. Ausmus was a special assistant in the Padres’ front office shortly after retiring as a player, and he held a similar role with the 2018 Angels under then-general manager Billy Eppler.

Since retiring, however, the bulk of Ausmus’ experience in the game has come in a big league dugout. That includes a four-year stint as the Tigers’ manager from 2014-17 and a 2019 run as the Angels’ skipper. He spent the 2022 campaign as the bench coach under newly hired A’s skipper Mark Kotsay, but Ausmus turned down an offer from the team to return for a second season in that position. Ausmus’ decision to decline that offer came just a week before ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Ausmus traveled to Houston to meet with former teammate Jeff Bagwell, who’s been a key advisor to owner Jim Crane and has held some sway in the team’s baseball operations decisions.

At the same time, there are renewed connections with now-former Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns, who served as an assistant GM in Houston before being hired as the GM in Milwaukee more than a half decade ago. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that Crane has maintained some interest in bringing Stearns back to Houston.

As has been the case each time Stearns has been rumored as a potential fit for another front office vacancy — the Mets courted him in two separate offseasons, for instance — there are notable caveats to consider. While Stearns stepped down as president in Milwaukee, he remains under contract with the Brewers through the end of the 2023 season. He’s no longer running baseball operations but remains an advisor to newly minted GM Matt Arnold and owner Mark Attanasio.

Furthermore, Stearns appeared at the Brewers’ press conference to announce the reshuffling of the baseball operations hierarchy and plainly declared that he was “not going anywhere” and planned to remain in Milwaukee. That was several months ago, of course, and Stearns didn’t place a definitive timeline on a return to baseball operations — or even whether he planned to pursue such opportunities at all. However, because he’s under contract, the Brewers would need to grant the Astros permission to interview him, and Milwaukee may even require player compensation if Stearns were to depart prior to the conclusion of his contract.

The Astros have operated without a GM this offseason after parting ways with World Series-winning GM James Click following the season. Click rejected what many viewed as a token one-year extension offer that came on the heels of myriad reports about mounting friction between the GM and Crane.

Astros Have Interviewed Guardians Assistant GM James Harris

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The Astros have spoken to Guardians assistant general manager James Harris about their vacant GM position, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Heyman calls Harris, Braves VP of scouting Dana Brown and former Giants GM Bobby Evans as three of the finalists for the post. It’s not clear how many names are still in the running, though former Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill has withdrawn his name from consideration.

Harris has been with Cleveland since 2016, when he was hired away from the Pirates organization to serve as the team’s director of player development. Prior to that, he’d spent a season as a special assistant to baseball operations with the Pirates and several prior years working with the NFL’s Philadelphia Eagles and the University of Oregon’s football program. Over the past several seasons, he’s risen from director level to vice president to assistant GM in Cleveland. The 2022 season was his first following that promotion to assistant general manager.

Houston has been in the market for a new general manager since owner Jim Crane surprisingly made the decision to move on from now-former GM James Click following a World Series win. Reported friction between Crane and Click began to mount late in the season, and Click rejected what was widely regarded as a token one-year extension offer, prompting the formal split between the two parties. Assistant GM Scott Powers, who’d been hired by Click in Jan. 2022, was fired not long after Click’s departure.

Since that time, Crane has taken a sizable role in baseball operations, receiving input from remaining assistant GMs Andrew Ball, Bill Firkus and Charles Cook, in addition to special assistant Jeff Bagwell. There’s seemingly been no urgency to make a new hire to the GM’s chair — the vast majority of the team’s offseason dealings have already been completed — and the team hasn’t commented publicly on when a new hire might be made. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the aforementioned Brown is the current favorite for the job, but there are clearly still multiple candidates in the running.

Michael Hill Withdraws Name From Astros’ GM Search

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The Astros have been without a general manager since James Click was surprisingly dismissed just days after the club won the World Series. Reporting last week indicated that Michael Hill, former president of baseball operations for the Marlins, was one of the candidates for the position. However, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports today that Hill has removed himself from consideration (Twitter links).

Hill, 51, would have brought plenty of experience to the role, having joined the Marlins in 2002. He worked his way up through various positions, including assistant general manager, general manager and president of baseball operations, holding that latter title until his contract wasn’t renewed following the 2020 season.

He has since been working for Major League Baseball as senior vice president of on-field operations. He’s been connected to various front office openings over the past few years, including with the Angels, Mets, Phillies and now the Astros. However, Heyman reports that Hill is happy in his role with the league and would like to stick around as the new rules are implemented. The 2023 season will see the league implementing a pitch clock as well as limits on defensive shifts and pickoff attempts. It seems the Houston job isn’t enough to tempt Hill away from overseeing the transition to this new brand of baseball.

That leaves two known candidates connected to the job in Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown and former Giants general manager Bobby Evans. It’s possible that owner Jim Crane is considering others that haven’t been reported yet but it seems like Hill can be crossed off the list. Crane himself has seemingly been leading the baseball decision making since his disagreements with Click led to the vacancy a couple of months ago.

Astros Notes: Catching, Brantley, Gurriel

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The defending champion Astros could be set to go with internal options alongside veteran Martin Maldonado behind the plate. As a report from Brian McTaggart of MLB.com suggests, the Astros had looked into the possibility of bringing in an external backstop to replace the retired Jason Castro and departed Christian Vazquez, but now may just let one of their young catchers backup Maldonado.

With the popular Maldonado the team’s top backstop, prospects Korey Lee and Yainer Diaz could battle it out in the spring for the big league backup job. Lee was the team’s first round pick back in 2019 and made it onto Baseball America’s Top 100 list before last season. He got some time in the big leagues last year, going 4-for-25 in 12 games. Lee mashed 25 homers on the way to a .238/.307/.483 line at Triple-A, where he spent the bulk of the 2022 season.

Diaz, 24, is known for his big bat and slashed .306/.356/.542 with 25 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A last season, his first with the Astros after coming over in the Myles Straw deal with Cleveland. Diaz, too, got a callup to the big leagues last season, picking up a double and a walk in nine plate appearances. While both Lee and Diaz have upside, McTaggart speculates that Diaz’ bat could give him the edge over Lee initially, as the team could play him at DH and first-base as well.

Here’s some other bits and pieces from the Astros:

  • Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle relays that the expectation is that Michael Brantley will be ready for Opening Day. The Astros re-signed Brantley to a one-year, $12MM deal just before Christmas. The 35-year-old was a productive hitter for the Astros last year, slashing .288/.370/.416 before going on the injured list in late June with a shoulder injury that eventually required surgery. Brantley is no stranger to injury problems, but has been a highly effective hitter when fit, as evidenced by his .306/.365/.462 line since 2017. The Astros will hope he can return fully fit in 2023 and provide more valuable offense as they look to defend their title.
  • Astros great and front office member Jeff Bagwell offered some insight into whether or not the team has any interest in bringing back Yuli Gurriel. The 38-year-old is a free agent after playing seven seasons with the Astros. He had some strong seasons in Houston, but his production dipped last year and he wound up hitting just .242/.288/.360 with eight home runs over 584 plate appearances. The Marlins are the only reported team to have made contact with Gurriel, but it seems the Astros aren’t closing the door on bringing him back. “There’s nobody that loves Yuli more than us, myself, Jim (Crane), Dusty (Baker), everybody. It’s just trying to find the right fit for the club. He’s a huge part of our success here. We’ll continue to monitor that situation,” Bagwell said (via McTaggart).

Astros’ Prospect Pedro Leon Undergoes Sports Hernia Surgery

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The Astros informed reporters this afternoon that prospect Pedro León will not be ready for the start of Spring Training after undergoing sports hernia surgery earlier this week (relayed by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). The procedure comes with a six-to-eight week recovery timetable, so León still looks to be in position to start the regular season on time.

León, 24, was a high-profile international signee for Houston over the 2020-21 offseason. A native of Cuba, he didn’t reach the amateur free agent market until he was headed into his age-23 campaign. He was nevertheless regarded as one of the more talented players in that signing class and his experience meant he was far more advanced than the typical signee, most of whom join clubs as teenagers. He was assigned to Double-A during his first professional campaign and made it to Triple-A Sugar Land later in the season.

The right-handed hitter spent all of last season with the Space Cowboys. Through 504 plate appearances, he hit .228/.365/.431, connecting on 17 home runs and stealing 38 bases. Promising as his combination of speed, plate discipline and power potential is, León also showed some areas of concern. He was caught stealing on 18 occasions and struck out in nearly 29% of his trips to the dish. Baseball America named him the #6 prospect in the Houston organization this offseason, praising his physical abilities but raising questions about his contact skills.

Initially signed as a shortstop, León mostly moved to the outfield last year. He made 52 starts in center field and 33 more in right while playing 23 games in the middle infield (all but three at second base). Given his upper level experience, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him factor into the MLB outfield during the upcoming season. Chas McCormick, Mauricio Dubón and Jake Meyers are each on the 40-man roster and ahead of León on the depth chart for now, though the young player could find himself in the mix midseason. He has not yet been added to the 40-man.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Latest On Astros’ General Manager Search

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The Astros have been operating without a general manager for several months but owner Jim Crane is actively interviewing candidates for the position, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It’s unclear if a resolution is close at hand or how many people are being considered, but Rosenthal lists three people who have been interviewed: Michael Hill, Dana Brown and Bobby Evans.

The Astros’ offseason got off to a surprising start when the club parted ways with general manager James Click and assistant general manager Scott Powers in November. There were some reported differences between Click and Crane, but it was expected by many that the Astros winning the World Series would be enough to get all parties on the same page going forward.

That didn’t come to pass and the club has been operating without a general manager for the past few months. It seems as though Crane has taken on a prominent role in the baseball operations while conducting a search for Click’s replacement. Crane commented on the matter back in November, saying that he planned to take his time and didn’t expect to make a hire prior to the new year. That has indeed come to pass as it is now mid-January with the position still vacant.

The club has been going about its business regardless, signing free agents like José Abreu and Michael Brantley in addition to agreeing to terms with various arbitration-eligible players. It’s not known if the club has any specific date in mind for a front office decision, but it seems the wheels are at least in motion with these interviews having been conducted.

Hill spent many years in the front office of the Marlins, joining the club in 2002. He would go on to hold various titles in his time with that franchise, including assistant general manager, general manager and president of baseball operations. When his contract ran out after the 2020 season, the club didn’t extend him despite the fact that they qualified for the postseason for the first time since 2003. Since that time, Hill has been connected to various clubs looking to add to their front office, including the Angels, Mets and Phillies. However, he has yet to sign on with another team since leaving the Marlins, spending the past two years working for Major League Baseball as senior vice president of on-field operations.

Brown was drafted by the Phillies in 1989 and spent a few years playing in their minor league system. He has since had various jobs throughout the league, serving as scouting director of the Nationals and a special assistant with the Blue Jays. He was a candidate to join the Mariners’ front office in late 2015 but didn’t land the job. For the past four years, he has been with the Braves, where he currently serves as the vice president of scouting. Much of his career has overlapped with Atlanta’s president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, as they worked together with the Expos before that team became the Nats, were with the Jays at the same time and are now working alongside each other in Atlanta.

Evans was hired by the Giants in 1994 and worked his way up through various titles over the years. He was eventually named the club’s general manager going into 2015, just after the club had won its third title in five years. However, he was “reassigned” from that role in late 2018 after less than four years on the job. He interviewed for the general manager job with the Astros in 2020 before Click was hired. He also interviewed for the Angels later that year, though that job ultimately went to Perry Minasian.

The three candidates each bring different levels of experience and success to the table. The Marlins didn’t find much success while Hill was with the club, but he worked for owner Jeffrey Loria who was known for meddling in baseball decisions and keeping the payroll modest. Brown’s teams have all found much success while he’s worked for them and he’s credited with drafting or signing many great talents, but he doesn’t have any previous work as a club’s top baseball decision maker. Evans was with the Giants during their most successful period in recent years, though his time in the top chair was brief and the club was less successful at that time. It’s unknown if the Astros have any preference among these three, though there are likely other candidates under consideration as well, with more details to come.

Notable International Signings: 1/15/2023

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Major League Baseball’s international signing period for 2023 has officially opened up today, with many of the big names signing almost immediately. Teams have long since agreed to verbal agreements with newly eligible teenage players, and today’s signings largely represent confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon the start of their professional careers.

As previously mentioned, most of the agreements have been known for a while, with Baseball America’s Ben Badler and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez having listed each player’s expected landing spot. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Here are a few key deals:

  • Ethan Salas, C, Venezuela — Padres ($5.6MM): Ranked as the top prospect by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, the 16-year-old is considered by MLB Pipeline as “one of the best catching prospects in recent history” and is lauded for his strike zone control, power, and defense. Scouts have specifically highlighted his swing and soft hands. Born in June 2006, the backstop is the youngest player in MLB Pipeline’s Top 10 International Prospect Rankings. The young switch-hitter is no stranger to high-level baseball, with his grandfather, father, and uncle all playing professionally, and his older brother Jose Salas signed by the Marlins in 2019. Salas’ $5.6MM deal will comprise almost all of the Padres’ base signing pool of $5.825,000.
  • Felnin Celesten, SS, Dominican Republic — Mariners ($4.7MM): MLB Pipeline’s second-best prospect and Baseball America’s third-best, Celesten has been heralded as having “the highest ceiling of any international shortstop prospect in a decade” by MLB Pipeline. Scouts have noted the switch-hitter’s plus speed, arm, and raw power. However, Baseball America reports that Celesten has “an aggressive approach” and “might need to become a more selective hitter.“
  • Brando Mayea, OF, Cuba — Yankees ($4.4MM): Baseball America’s second-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s ninth-best, Mayea has drawn praise for his bat speed, power, and approach to the plate, with one scout going as far as to describe the 17-year-old as a “mini Gary Sheffield.” Scouts have praised the righty’s strong arm, with some expecting an eventual move to a corner outfield position.
  • Alfredo Duno, C, Venezuela — Reds (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fourth-best prospect and Baseball America’s seventh-best, Duno is a 17-year-old catcher that boasts three above-average tools — his fielding, arm, and power. Scouts have praised his “elite bat speed” and defensive ability. MLB Pipeline and Baseball America both predict that Duno will remain behind the plate, but both also cite his swing-and-miss tendencies as a result of his aggressive approach.
  • Emmanuel Bonilla, OF, Dominican Republic — Blue Jays ($4.1MM): Baseball America’s fourth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s seventh-best, Bonilla profiles as a slugging outfielder that has a chance to remain in centerfield but will likely move to a corner position as the 16-year-old matures. Scouts have praised the righty’s bat speed and swing, with Baseball America reporting that some scouts believe Bonilla has “one of the best combinations of hitting ability and power in the class.”
  • Luis Morales, RHP, Cuba — Athletics (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fifth-best prospect and Baseball America’s ninth-best, Morales is a hard-throwing righty with a fastball that sits between 94-97 MPH with a slider, changeup, and curveball as secondary pitches. Born in Cuba, Morales was considered the best U-18 pitcher on the island, setting a record for strikeouts (161) in 82 2/3 innings between 2019 and 2020. He defected in 2021 while playing for Cuba’s U-23 team in Mexico. Morales, 20, is one of the oldest high-profile international prospects and thus may be potentially fast-tracked through the A’s system.
  • Sebastian Walcott, SS, Bahamas — Rangers (Unknown): Baseball America’s sixth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s eighth-best, Walcott is a 6’3, 170 lbs (6’4, 190 lbs, per Baseball America) 16-year-old that has impressed scouts with high raw power and bat speed. Despite being 6’3, Walcott has drawn praise for his contact skills, hand-eye coordination, and his fluid swing. Baseball America projects that as Walcott matures, he will outgrow the shortstop position and transition to third base. 

Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2M or more, with the specifics provided by Sanchez:

  • Brailer Guerrero, OF, D.R., Rays ($3.7MM)     [MLB Pipeline #12, BA #5]
  • Jesus Caba, SS, D.R., Phillies ($3MM)                [MLB Pipeline #11, BA #8]
  • Ariel Castro, OF, Cuba, Twins ($2.5MM)            [MLB Pipeline #11, BA#13]
  • Rayner Arias, OF, D.R., Giants ($2.8MM)          [MLB Pipeline #15, BA #8]
  • Camilo Diaz, OF, D.R., Astros ($2.25MM)          [MLB Pipeline #17, BA #19]
  • Luis Almeyda, SS, D.R., Orioles ($2.3MM)        [MLB Pipeline #20, BA #17]
  • Roberto Calaz, OF, D.R., Rockies ($2.5MM)     [MLB Pipeline #24, BA #14]

MLBTR Poll: American League West Favorite

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The Astros have won the division title in the American League West in each of the past five full seasons. They also reached the ALCS in each of those years, along with the shortened 2020 campaign. There hoisted the World Series trophy twice in that time, including just a few months ago. However, their rivals have been aggressive in trying to load up to chase them in 2023 and it now seems like four out of the five clubs seem like legitimate contenders.

There’s still over a month until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, meaning there’s still time for some aggressive transactions that will further change the calculus. But much of the heavy lifting of the offseason appears to be done. Most of the top free agents are off the board, with guys like Jurickson Profar, Michael Wacha and Andrew Chafin the top remaining options. Those are fine players that could certainly help a team but they wouldn’t be franchise-altering additions. There’s also the trade market, which could theoretically see Bryan Reynolds on the move. The Rangers are reportedly interested in him, but so are many other teams and the Pirates have continued to hold firm to an asking price that seems to be quite high.

Whether there are significant moves still to come or not, let’s look at where the clubs stand now, starting with the reigning champs.

Houston Astros – 2022 record: 106-56, projected 2023 fWAR: 48.2

There’s not much doubt about the Astros at this point. As mentioned, they’re enjoying an incredible run of success. Going into the winter, they lost some significant players to free agency, the most notable of which was Justin Verlander. The club hasn’t done anything to supplant him thus far, which is a defendable but risky move. The rotation has plenty of solid options without Verlander, with Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown on the roster. However, Verlander is the reigning Cy Young winner after tossing 175 innings with a 1.75 ERA last year. Subtracting that kind of performance would have an impact on any club.

On the position player side, they lost Christian Vázquez, Jason Castro, Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and Aledmys Díaz to free agency. They’ve since re-signed Brantley and added José Abreu. Overall, the team is still going to be good, but is it enough to hold off the others? FanGraphs certainly thinks so, giving them the highest projected wins above replacement on their depth charts, but there are three clubs within striking distance.

Seattle Mariners – 2022 record: 90-72, projected 2023 fWAR: 43.5

The Mariners finally broke through in 2022, earning a Wild Card spot and reaching the postseason for the first time since 2001. That snapped the longest active postseason drought in the majors, a dishonor that now falls to the Tigers and Angels, who each last qualified for the playoffs in 2014.

This offseason, they have been fairly quiet in terms of free agency, with reliever Trevor Gott marking their only signing so far. They have made some notable trades, however, as is their wont. They acquired slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays, sending reliever Erik Swanson and prospect Adam Macko the other way. They also acquired Kolten Wong from the Brewers, sending Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro to Milwaukee. Hernández and Wong will essentially replace two of the club’s most significant free agent departures in Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier.

The Hernández/Wong pairing could certainly act as an upgrade over Haniger/Frazier, but probably not a huge one. If the club is going to catch the Astros, it will likely have to come from gains made by players already on the roster. Having a full season of Luis Castillo, whom they acquired at the deadline last year, will certainly help. Julio Rodríguez had an incredible rookie season at the age of 21 but could perhaps be even better this year. A breakout from struggling young outfielder Jarred Kelenic would be a tremendous boost. Continued development from young pitchers like George Kirby and Matt Brash would also help.

Los Angeles Angels – 2022 record: 73-89, projected 2023 fWAR: 40.4

The Angels have continued to disappoint despite having two of the best players on the planet on their roster. That was the case again in 2022, as Mike Trout was limited by injury to just 119 games but still produced 6.0 fWAR while Shohei Ohtani produced 3.8 fWAR at the plate and 5.6 on the mound. Still, the club fell out of contention in the summer and never really made it back.

Despite years of falling short of expectations, there are reasons to think 2023 could actually be the year they deliver. They didn’t lose any key contributors to free agency, with players like Michael Lorenzen and Matt Duffy marking some of the most notable departures. They’ve also patched some of the holes that have caused their ship to sink in past years, as a lack of adequate depth has continually wasted the star performances at the top of the roster.

Starting pitching has long been a struggle for the club but the rotation seems like it could be in the best shape in years. 2022 saw encouraging developments from Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and José Suarez, all of whom are slated to return to the club this year. The Halos also supplemented that group by signing Tyler Anderson away from the Dodgers. That gives them a solid front five with Tucker Davidson, Griffin Canning and Chase Silseth on hand as depth options. On the position player side, they’ve added Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury and Gio Urshela. Those aren’t stars, but the Angels already had stars. They needed adequate role players to supplement their stars and seem to have added some solid options.

Texas Rangers – 2022 record: 68-94, projected 2023 fWAR: 41.9

Of the four plausible competitors in the division, the Rangers will need the biggest turnaround, since 2022 was rough. Turning a 68-win team into a contender in one offseason is no easy feat. But they already did most of the heavy lifting on the position player side last winter, adding Corey Seager and Marcus Semien on mega deals just prior to the lockout.

The big task of this winter would be upgrading the pitching staff and they have completely overhauled it. They re-signed Martín Pérez while signing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and trading for Jake Odorizzi. Those five, along with incumbents Jon Gray and Dane Dunning, put the club in a much better position going forward. There are injury concerns scattered throughout that crew, but it’s miles beyond the staff they had last year.

Oakland Athletics – 2022 record: 60-102, projected 2023 fWAR: 29.3

Since the lockout ended in March, the A’s have leaned hard into a rebuild. In just the past ten months, they have traded away Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas and Sean Murphy. They lost 102 games last year and should be lined up for another rebuild/evaluation season. They’ve made marginal adds by signing Aledmys Díaz, Jace Peterson, Drew Rucinski and Trevor May, but the expectation of just about everyone is that they will be in the basement yet again this year.

______________________

The Astros will likely go into the season as the favorite, since they are the reigning World Series champs and have made a few solid moves this offseason. But there are plenty of reasons to think it could be an interesting battle all season long. The Mariners, Rangers and Angels have all made interesting moves this winter and are all within 8 WAR of the Astros according to the projections of FanGraphs. Is this the year the Astros get dethroned?

What do you think? Who will be best in the West in 2023? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Did The Astros Fix Will Smith?

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Back on Aug. 1, when the Astros and Braves agreed to a swap of veteran pitchers Jake Odorizzi and Will Smith, the move was met with some confusion by Astros fans. Odorizzi hadn’t endeared himself with a rocky start to his tenure in Houston, nor his public gripes about the team’s usage of him (specifically, a quick hook even on effective days), but he’d vastly outperformed Smith to that point in the season.

At the time of the trade, Odorizzi had a 3.60 ERA in 60 innings, and while it was accompanied by a lackluster strikeout rate, that was partially offset by a strong walk rate. Odorizzi wasn’t a star by any means but had been a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter. Houston, however, had six options ahead of him on the depth chart and felt a need for some left-handed help in the ’pen. Some ’Stros fans took issue with the return of Smith, in particular, though — and understandably so. He’d posted a tepid 4.38 ERA to that point in the season, and the under-the-hood numbers were actually worse. Smith’s 24% strikeout rate was his lowest since moving the to the bullpen, and his 12.3% walk rate was a career-worst. He was averaging 1.70 homers per nine innings pitched, and metrics like FIP (5.22) and xFIP (4.76) didn’t view him favorably.

Part of the swap was surely the similarities in their 2022 contracts. Smith was owed the balance of a $13MM salary and had a $1MM buyout on a 2023 option. Odorizzi was earning just $5MM but had another $2.5MM of easily attainable incentives, plus a weighty $3.25MM buyout on a 2023 option. More at the heart of the issue, however, it seems the Astros viewed Smith as someone they could revitalize with some tweaks.

That’s indeed how things played out, though the changes were more subtle than glaring. Smith largely scrapped his curveball in Houston, dropping from an 11.9% usage rate to just 3.6%. He threw slightly fewer fastballs (41.8% in Atlanta, 39.1% with Houston) and upped the usage on his slider, throwing it at a career-high 52.1% of the time. With the ’Stros, Smith also dropped both his vertical and horizontal release points, although not dramatically.

There was no major spike in spin rate — the spin on his four-seamer actually dipped slightly following the trade — and Smith didn’t begin throwing harder or unveil a new pitch that changed his fortunes. Rather, the subtle tweaks to his mechanics and a more acute focus on two pitches seemed to turn his fortunes. He located his slider more effectively (pre-trade, post-trade) and, crucially, avoided the heart of the plate far more often with his four-seamer (pre-trade, post-trade). Smith operated far more regularly and more effectively in the top-third of the strike zone — and just above it.

Unsurprisingly, his swinging-strike rate jumped from an already-sharp 13.6% in Atlanta to a massive 17.3% with Houston. He was able to spot both pitches more effectively both on the fringes of the zone and within the zone; his first-pitch strike rate spiked from 63.2% with the Braves to 72.2% with the Astros. His walk rate plummeted from 12.3% to 4.4%.

Smith’s time with the Astros proved brief, but in two months with Houston he tossed 22 innings of 3.27 ERA ball with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a 4.4% walk rate. After averaging 1.7 homers per nine frames with Atlanta, he allowed just two in 22 innings with Houston (0.82 HR/9). If anything, Smith was bizarrely unlucky on balls in play as an Astro; he yielded a sky-high .350 average on balls in play. Smith wasn’t on the Astros’ ALDS or ALCS roster — perhaps in part due to a heavily right-handed Yankees lineup — but was added to the World Series roster. He did not, however, pitch in a game. Houston declined his option at season’s end, favoring a $1MM buyout over a $13MM salary next season.

That outcome seemed obvious, but it’s hard to ignore the high note on which Smith ended the regular season. The lefty overwhelming improved his command, missed more bats, issued fewer walks and yielded fewer home runs. He still wasn’t used in many high-leverage spots by the Astros, but that’s in part due to their generally strong bullpen. Over his final 17 outings of the season, Smith pitched to a 2.35 ERA with an 18-to-2 K/BB ratio in 15 1/3 innings.

However, because Smith was generally used in lower-leverage spots and because he didn’t pitch in the postseason, his turnaround in Houston flew largely under the radar. On the one hand, it’s arguably a damning reality that he was passed over in leverage situations and omitted from two of the Astros’ three postseason rosters. On the other hand, the results when he did pitch were excellent, and Houston had four other relievers with a sub-3.00 ERA (and five others with a FIP of 3.02 or better). Smith was a luxury but not someone they necessarily needed to acquire to plug into those leverage positions for lack of better options.

As was the case in the Houston bullpen, Smith is again somewhat lost in the shuffle of the offseason’s free-agent class. MLBTR ranked Taylor Rogers as the top lefty in this year’s class, and he indeed secured a three-year deal. Smith was never going to get another contract along those lines, but he’s perhaps closer to the next tier of lefties than one might expect when looking at his season-long numbers. Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore both had better seasons, and Chafin in particular seems like he should command a strong contract after his past couple years of performance. Smith’s end to the season, however, was quite strong, and if his next team gets more of the Houston version than the Atlanta version, he’ll likely be a bargain.

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