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Pirates’ Trade Talks For Rotation Help Have Slowed

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Throughout the late stages of the offseason, the Pirates have reportedly been exploring the trade market for rotation help, with the Marlins (specifically, right-hander Edward Cabrera) being the team most frequently suggested as a potential trade partner. However, while the Bucs talked with the Fish and surely several other clubs about deals to bolster the rotation, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that talks have “lost steam” and that GM Ben Cherington now says he’s increasingly focused on the arms in house.

“If there are things we can do to make the team better, we’re gonna stay on that,” Cherington tells Mackey. “No guarantee those things happen. We’re mostly focused on the guys who are here.”

The Pirates have three slam-dunk members of their Opening Day rotation: Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales. Keller, who recently signed a five-year contract extension, will get the Opening Day nod. There are still a pair of open rotation jobs, however, and Cherington suggested there are six or seven options vying for those two opportunities.

The names currently competing include a mix of young prospects, rebound candidates coming off a down 2023 showing, and veterans hoping to win a spot. While the Pirates have already informed 2023 No. 1 overall draft pick Paul Skenes that he won’t make the Opening Day roster, fellow top prospect Jared Jones (No. 74 on Baseball America’s top 100 list) is firmly in the mix. Jones may not have the same ceiling as Skenes, but Skenes pitched just 6 2/3 innings last year following the draft. Jones, on the other hand, logged a combined 3.85 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate in 126 1/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A in ’23. He’s pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings in camp.

Jones, 22, was specifically called out by manager Derek Shelton as a candidate for a spot in the Opening Day rotation (X link via Alex Stumpf of MLB.com). He’d need to be added to the 40-man roster, which could potentially work against him. That’s not true of Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter and Kyle Nicolas, each of whom is on the 40-man roster. (Lefty Jackson Wolf is as well, but the Pirates already optioned him to Double-A in their first wave of spring cuts).

Contreras and Falter have the most experience of the bunch. Both are looking to rebound from ugly 2023 showings. Contreras looked like a potential rotation staple as recently as 2022, when he pitched 95 innings of 3.79 ERA ball with passable, if unspectacular, strikeout and walk rates (21.1%, 9.6%). However, he lost more than a mile off his heater in ’23 and took a step back in virtually every rate category of note. He’s still only 24 years old and is just two years removed from being a top-100 prospect himself, so there’s ample time for him to figure things out. He’s out of minor league options, meaning he’ll make the roster one way or another — be it in the rotation or in the bullpen. Pirates fans will want to check out Mackey’s piece in full, as it more fully details some of the gains Contreras has shown thus far in camp.

Falter was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in a swap sending utilityman Rodolfo Castro to the Phillies. The 26-year-old was never as touted a prospect as Contreras was, but the two followed relatively similar arcs otherwise: brief MLB debut in 2021, solid back-of-the-rotation results in 2022, poor showing in 2023. Falter tossed 84 innings with a 3.86 ERA as the Phillies’ fifth starter in ’22, fanning 21.2% of his opponents against an exceptional 4.9% walk rate. Like Contreras, he saw his strikeout, walk, swinging-strike and home run rates all back up in 2023 as he finished out the season with a 5.36 ERA in 80 2/3 frames. Also like Contreras, he’s out of minor league options and will need to make the roster or else be traded or exposed to waivers.

Priester, Ortiz and Nicolas all have minor league options remaining and have all made their big league debuts (in quite brief fashion, for Nicolas). They all ranked within the organization’s top 15 prospects at Baseball America as recently as 2023. Priester and Ortiz both drew top-100 fanfare prior to their debuts. None of the three has established himself on the roster, however. Priester has the best minor league numbers of the group but has been hit harder than Ortiz in the big leagues. Ortiz throws the hardest but has displayed shakier command than Priester. Nicolas still hasn’t had much success above Double-A, so he seems likely ticketed for Triple-A Indianapolis to begin the year, particularly since he’s already been hit hard in camp.

The Bucs also have a pair of veterans who could compete for a job. Lefty Josh Fleming is on the 40-man roster after signing a split deal late in the winter. He’s out of options and can’t be sent down, but he’s spent the bulk of his MLB career as a swingman with the Rays and could be headed for a similar spot in Pittsburgh. Righty Chase Anderson is in camp on a non-roster deal. The 36-year-old hasn’t posted a sub-5.00 ERA in the big leagues since being traded by the Brewers following the 2019 season but has shown decently in Triple-A while bouncing around the league since then.

Paul Skenes Won’t Make Pirates’ Opening Day Roster

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Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes won’t make the Opening Day roster, with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette relaying that general manager Ben Cherington has already informed the righty. The young hurler will remain in big league camp for the time being but will start the season in the minor leagues.

“I’ve thrown 6 2/3 innings in pro ball,” Skenes said of the situation, per Mackey. “It’s just kind of how it goes. [Pirates general manager Ben Cherington] said it would be unprecedented if I started the year in the big leagues. Not that I don’t think I can do it, but I understand it.”

Though it was a long shot, there was an argument for Skenes cracking the big leagues out of camp this year. The argument against it is simple as he’s still just 21 years old, turning 22 in May, and only just entered the professional ranks last year. But on the other hand, he’s dominated everywhere he’s pitched and has been built up to something close to a starter’s workload.

With Louisiana State last year, Skenes tossed 122 2/3 innings over 19 starts. He posted an earned run average of 1.69 in that time, striking out 45.2% of batters faced while giving out walks at just a 4.3% clip. Those results led the Bucs to take him first overall last year, after which they put him into five minor league games at the Complex League, Single-A and then Double-A. He faced 40 batters overall and struck out 10 while giving out just two walks.

Given the quality and quantity of that work, it wouldn’t have been outlandish to think he could break camp right now and toss 160 innings or so out of the Pittsburgh rotation. That’s especially true when considering the current rotation, with is front by Mitch Keller but has plenty of uncertainty beyond that.

The club added Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales to be veteran stabilizers in the middle or the rotation, but there’s no guarantee they can provide that kind of service. Pérez got bumped from the Rangers’ rotation last year and finished the year with a 4.98 ERA as a starter. Gonzales only made 10 starts and logged 50 innings due to a nerve issue in his left forearm which required surgery. Beyond that, the other options are fairly unproven young guys like Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, Roansy Contreras or Quinn Priester. No one in that quartet has reached 200 big league innings pitched nor do any of them have an ERA below 4.73.

Despite that potential path to a role for Skenes, the club will keep him in the minor for now. But if he is putting up zeroes in the minors while the results in the majors are lacking, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him up at some point this summer. The club will potentially be getting JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows back midseason, as both underwent Tommy John surgery early in 2023, but Skenes could still seem like one of the five best options in the coming months.

When Skenes does finally get the call, it could have an impact for both him and the club. If he misses the first few weeks of the season, he won’t be able to earn a full year of service time here in 2024, at least not the traditional way. To combat service time manipulation, the current collective bargaining agreement allows a player to earn a full year of service regardless of when they were called up if they have less than 60 days of MLB service coming into the season, placed on at least two preseason Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline and then finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting. Each of those three prospect lists have Skenes in the top 10, so he would certainly qualify if he were called up midseason but with enough time to get into the top two of the ROY voting.

Not getting a full year of service time here in 2024 would have an impact on his trajectory towards free agency and potentially to arbitration as well. Players need six full years of service to become free agents, so Skenes would be slated for the open market after 2029 if he broke camp this year and stayed up for good. If he falls short of one year, then his potential free agency would be pushed back a year to after 2030.

In terms of arbitration, players need three full years for guaranteed qualification but can get in with less. Of the players between two and three years of service each year, the 22% with the most service time get to qualify early. The “Super Two” line oscillates from year to year based on who is in that 22% category. Going back to 2009, the line has gone as high as 2.146 and as low as 2.115, with a full year being 172 days. That means that Skenes has a chance to qualify for arbitration after 2026 even if he isn’t called up until a couple of months into this year.

David Bednar Battling Lat Tightness

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  • Pirates closer David Bednar is battling what seems to be minor tightness in his right lat, skipper Derek Shelton said over the weekend (via MLB.com). The two-time All-Star has yet to get on the mound in exhibition play as the team keeps an eye on the situation. Bednar is a force at the back of the Pittsburgh bullpen and one of the sport’s best relievers overall. He has turned in a 2.25 ERA through 179 2/3 innings for the Bucs after his inclusion in the Joe Musgrove trade return. Bednar allowed an even two earned runs per nine over 67 1/3 frames a season ago. He paced the National League with 39 saves.

U. L. Washington Passes Away

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Former big league shortstop U. L. Washington passed away on Sunday at the age of 70 after a battle with cancer.

“We mourn the loss of Royals Baseball Academy graduate and 1980 American League Champion U. L. Washington and send our condolences to his family and friends,” the Royals said in a statement earlier today.

“So sorry to hear my friend my teammate UL Washington has died of cancer,” Hall of Famer George Brett said in his own statement on X last night. “He was a great player. I will always be thankful of our time together with the Royals.”

Born in Stringtown, Oklahoma, Washington played collegiate baseball at Murray State College in Tishomingo, Oklahoma for one year before being admitted into the Royals Baseball Academy in 1973, which he attended alongside the likes of Frank White and Ron Washington. After spending several years in the Kansas City system, Washington made his big league debut at the age of 23 in 1977, though he was limited to a 10-game cup of coffee in the majors that season as the Royals went on to win 102 games before falling to the Yankees in the ALCS. Washington grew into a larger utility role with the club over the next two seasons, batting a combined .257/.304/.338 while playing solid defense at both second base and shortstop.

By 1980, Washington had developed into the club’s everyday shortstop and enjoyed the best season of his career to that point, slashing .276/.336/.375 in 153 games in conjunction with slick fielding. Washington’s first season as a regular saw the club reach the World Series, though they ultimately fell to the Phillies in a six-game set. Washington was a key contributor during the club’s postseason run not only in the field but also at the plate, where he went 10-for-33. After struggling somewhat during the strike-shortened 1981 season, the then-28-year-old returned to form in 1982 with a career year that saw him slash an above-average .286/.337/.412 despite missing a month due to injury. Washington came back down to Earth over his final two seasons with the Royals, batting just .233/.294/.310 in a combined 207 games despite recording a 40-steal season in 1983.

The switch-hitter’s tenure in Kansas City came to an end upon being dealt to the Expos in January 1985 in exchange for a package featuring southpaw Mike Kinnunen. Washington played in a utility capacity for the Expos, spending time at shortstop as well as second and third base while slashing .249/.301/.352 in 209 trips to the plate with the club. Washington hit free agency following the 1985 season, but did not sign with a club until partway through the 1986 campaign when he latched on with the Pirates. The then-32-year-old shortstop would finish his career in Pittsburgh, appearing in 82 games over two seasons with the club.

Washington finished his major league career with 907 games under his belt across eleven seasons, 757 of which came as a member of the Royals. A career .251/.313/.343 hitter, he stole 132 bases and clubbed 166 extra-base hits throughout his career while recording 5,864 1/3 innings at shortstop. Though Washington’s playing career in the majors came to a close in 1987, his time in the game was far from over. He began his coaching career as a manager in the Pirates’ system in 1989 before moving on the act as a hitting coach in the Royals, Dodgers, Twins, and Red Sox organizations. During his time as a coach, he worked with future stars such as Tim Wakefield and Mookie Betts.

MLBTR joins the rest of the baseball world in sending our condolences to Washington’s family, friends, loved ones, and former teammates.

Ed Ott Passes Away

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The Pirates announced today that former major league catcher Ed Ott passed away today at the age of 72. “We are saddened by the loss of such a beloved member of the Pirates family,” said Pirates President Travis Williams in a statement. “Ed spent seven of his eight years in the Major Leagues with the Pirates and was a valued member of our World Series Championship team in 1979. It was great to see him last summer when he was in Pittsburgh to support former teammate Kent Tekulve at our Hall of Fame induction ceremony.”

Born in Muncy, Pennsylvania in 1951, Ott was part of both the football and wrestling teams at his local high school although he did not play baseball there on account of the school not having a baseball team. Instead, Ott participated in American Legion Baseball during the summers as a third baseman before being drafted in the 23rd round of the 1970 draft by the Pirates, at which point the club converted him from the infield to the outfield. Ott spent three seasons as an outfielder in the Pirates’ minor league system before the club once again asked him to change positions, this time moving him behind the plate.

While Ott had previously made his major league debut in 1974 as a bench bat with a brief two-game cameo in right field, he’d spend the next six seasons of his career as a catcher for the Pirates. After making just 10 trips to the plate across his first two big league seasons combined, Ott impressed in a 27 game stint as an emergency catcher behind injured backstops Manny Sanguillén and Duffy Dyer. While his playing time remained limited, Ott made the most of the opportunity by slashing .308/.349/.359, an above average slash for the era. That winter, the Pirates shipped Sanguillén to the A’s as compensation for hiring away manager Chuck Tanner, a deal that opened the door for Ott to take on primary catcing duties in the 1977 season.

In his first season as a major league regular, Ott performed well with a respectable .264/.334/.395 slash line in 347 trips to the plate across 104 games while spending 712 2/3 innings behind the plate. That combination of reliability behind the plate and roughly league average offense continued for the rest of Ott’s time with the Pirates, as he slashed .268/.316/.383 across the next three seasons while appearing in at least 112 games during each season. Ott is most famous for his role as a key piece on Pittsburgh’s 1979 team, which won 98 games before sweeping the Reds in the NLCS and being crowned World Series champions after beating the Orioles in a seven-game set. It’s the fifth and most recent championship in franchise history. Ott went 7-for-25 during that postseason, knocking in three runs during the World Series and scoring the game-winning run against Baltimore in Game 2.

Ott’s time in Pittsburgh came to an end following the 1980 season when he was traded to the then-California Angels alongside southpaw Mickey Mahler in exchange for All Star first baseman Jason Thompson. Ott appeared in 75 games for the Angels in 1981, though he batted just .217 with .545 OPS before undergoing surgery on his rotator cuff that winter, causing him to miss the 1982 campaign. Ott spent the next two seasons in the Angels’ minor league system before retiring in 1984. Following his playing career, Ott went on to serve as a minor league manager in the Pirates organization and a big league coach with the Astros and Tigers.

We at MLBTR join the rest of the baseball world in sending our condolences to Ott’s family, friends, loved ones, and former teammates and colleagues around the league.

Andrew McCutchen, Joshua Palacios Nearing Spring Debuts

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  • Pirates outfielders Andrew McCutchen and Joshua Palacios have yet to appear this spring after being slowed by injuries entering camp, though manager Derek Shelton recently told reporters (including those at MLB.com) that each figures to see the field at some point in the next week. McCutchen, 37, has been working on defensive drills and taking swings this spring while rehabbing the partially torn achilles that ended his 2023 campaign in early September. The veteran figures to enter the 2024 season penciled in as the club’s regular DH, though he did make occasional appearances in right field last season. Palacios, meanwhile, figures to battle with the likes of Edward Olivares and Connor Joe for playing time in the outfield alongside regulars Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski. The 28-year-old slashed .239/.279/.413 in 91 games with Pittsburgh last year but has been slowed this spring by a lower leg injury.

Jose DeLeon, MLB Pitcher From 1983-95, Passes Away At 63

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Former major league pitcher José DeLeón has passed away at age 63, according to a report from The Associated Press. His death was announced last night by the Leones del Escogido of the Dominican Winter League. DeLeón, not to be confused with the free agent pitcher who played for the Twins last season, pitched in the major leagues between 1983-95.

A native of the Dominican Republic, DeLeón entered the professional ranks in 1979 as a third-round pick by the Pirates. The 6’3″ right-hander pitched in four minor league seasons before reaching Pittsburgh. He had an impressive debut season, working to a 2.83 ERA and striking out 118 hitters in 108 innings covering 15 starts. He earned a seventh-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year balloting.

DeLeón would hold a spot in the Pirates rotation for a few seasons. He worked to a 3.74 ERA over 192 1/3 innings during his second big league campaign. He struggled to a 4.70 ERA with an MLB-leading 19 losses the next season. Midway through the ’86 campaign, Pittsburgh dealt him to the White Sox in a lopsided swap that landed future MVP finalist Bobby Bonilla.

Chicago plugged DeLeón into their rotation for the next year and a half. While he wasn’t anywhere close to as impactful as Bonilla became in Pittsburgh, he enjoyed a solid showing on the South Side. DeLeón turned in a 2.96 ERA in 13 starts after the trade in ’86 and logged 206 frames of 4.02 ball in 1987.

Over the 1987-88 offseason, Chicago flipped DeLeón to the Cardinals for reliever Ricky Horton and young outfielder Lance Johnson. He was a rotation fixture in St. Louis over parts of five seasons. DeLeón topped 225 innings in each of his first two years with the Redbirds. He had the best year of his career in 1989, pitching to a 3.05 ERA with a National League-leading 201 strikeouts across 36 starts. DeLeón again lost an MLB-worst 19 games in 1990 but rebounded with a personal-low 2.71 ERA over 28 appearances in ’91.

The Cardinals released him in August of the following season. DeLeón signed with the Phillies and remained in Philadelphia into the next year. He converted to the bullpen by 1993. The White Sox reacquired him for reliever Bobby Thigpen the next August. DeLeón reached the postseason for the only time in his career with Chicago, making two relief appearances in an eventual ALCS loss to the Blue Jays. He’d pitch in two more seasons, working with the Sox and Expos through 1995. DeLeón didn’t return to the majors thereafter, although he pitched in Taiwan until his age-37 campaign in 1998.

Over parts of 13 seasons, DeLeón tallied nearly 1900 innings while allowing 3.76 earned runs per nine. He struck out almost 1600 hitters with an 86-119 record. He surpassed 150 frames on seven occasions and donned five major league uniforms. MLBTR sends our condolences to DeLeón’s family, loved ones, friends and former teammates.

NL Central Notes: India, Ashby, Santana, Pirates

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Plantar fasciitis sidelined Jonathan India last summer, and the injury is still impacting the Reds infielder’s availability as Spring Training begins.  Manager David Bell told the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith and other reporters that India isn’t slated to appear in a game until March 7 or 8, as India’s plantar fasciitis tore during the offseason and is still causing him some discomfort.  On the plus side, the tear means that India won’t need to undergo surgery on his foot, and Bell said that India is still able to take part in baseball activity as he builds up to being game-ready.

Health is just one of many uncertainties hanging over India as he begins his fourth Major League season.  Already the subject of frequent trade rumors due to Cincinnati’s plethora of up-and-coming infield talent, India looks to be moving into a utility role if he remains with the Reds, as he could be playing all over the infield, at DH, and perhaps in left field.

Other items from around the NL Central…

  • Aaron Ashby is eager to be back after missing virtually all of the 2023 season due to arthroscopic surgery on his throwing shoulder.  Describing the procedure to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Ashby said “I essentially had some calcified muscle on my rotator cuff, and they went in there and clipped it right off.  Once I got out of surgery the doctor was like, ’This was best-case scenario for you.’  It’s a minimal surgery in terms of what they did, but a shoulder surgery is a shoulder surgery, and it’s tricky at times.”  The southpaw’s only game action in 2023 was seven innings of minor-league rehab work in September, but he has been making good progress in Spring Training and is hoping to win a spot in the Brewers rotation, though Rosiak notes that bullpen work could help ease Ashby back into regular activity.
  • Carlos Santana had interest in returning to the Pirates as a free agent this winter, with Santana telling Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he expressed this to the team when he was traded to the Brewers prior to last summer’s trade deadline.  The Bucs still had some interest during the offseason even after signing Rowdy Tellez to ostensibly fill the void at first base, but Santana didn’t know why an agreement wasn’t reached.  “My agent has a very good relationship with the team, but he didn’t tell me anything.  I wanted to come back, but there was nothing going on,” the first baseman said.  Santana instead joined the Twins on a one-year, $5.25MM deal, and the Pirates will head into 2024 with Tellez and Connor Joe as the first base platoon and Andrew McCutchen returning as the primary DH.
  • This could be something of a tough read for Pirates fans, but The Athletic’s Stephen J. Nesbitt and Ken Rosenthal details some of the missteps that have slowed the team’s rebuild, such as a lack of success in international signings and some instances of a disconnect between traditional baseball teachings and the more modern approach of GM Ben Cherington.  However, the largest issue is naturally the team’s lack of spending under owner Bob Nutting, as there is less margin for error for Cherington’s front office when operating within a tight budget.  Nesbitt and Rosenthal’s piece was published a day before the Pirates announced a five-year, $77MM extension with Mitch Keller, which is one instance of how the Bucs have been slightly more willing to spend in order to lock up young cornerstone players.

Pittsburgh’s Second Base Camp Battle

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With Spring Training’s arrival, the next few weeks will feature a number of camp battles around the league. One position that could be up for grabs before Opening Day: the second base job in Pittsburgh. The Bucs used eight players at the position a year ago. Four of them remain on the roster and could vie for time at the team’s most uncertain infield spot.

Peguero, 23, got his first extended MLB run last year. He appeared in 59 games and tallied 213 trips to the plate. Peguero didn’t produce much, hitting .237/.280/.374 with dismal strikeout and walk rates (5.2% and 31.5%, respectively). It’s not all that surprising that he had a rough go against MLB pitching. Peguero only appeared in seven Triple-A games before being called to the majors. He had spent the majority of the season’s first half at Double-A Altoona, where he turned in a .260/.333/.453 showing with 11 homers, 19 steals, and a solid 10.1% walk rate against an 18.2% strikeout percentage.

Scouting reports on Peguero have credited him with a well-rounded physical toolset but raised questions about his strike zone judgment. He showed excellent speed in his MLB time but didn’t put things together consistently on either side of the ball.

Pittsburgh selected Gonzales, a New Mexico State product, with the #7 overall pick in 2020. He has drawn plenty of walks while hitting for power in the minors but hasn’t consistently made contact. That concern carried over in his first look at MLB arms. Gonzales hit .209/.268/.348 with a 28.1% strikeout rate across his first 35 big league contests.

The 24-year-old was a lot more productive with Triple-A Indianapolis. Gonzales hit .281/.379/.507 with 14 homers in 443 plate appearances at the top minor league level. He drew free passes at a 12% clip and hit for power, but a .369 average on balls in play masks a near-27% strikeout percentage. Gonzales isn’t regarded as a great defender, so he’ll have to take a notable step forward in his pure contact skills. Baseball America ranked him the #9 prospect in the Pittsburgh system this offseason.

Last year’s team leader in playing time at second base, Bae also had a tough rookie season. He hit .231/.296/.311 in 371 plate appearances. Unlike Peguero and Gonzales, Bae had roughly average plate discipline and contact metrics. His issue was a complete lack of power. He only homered twice with 17 doubles and a pair of triples. Nearly three-fifths of his batted balls were hit on the ground.

Bae is a plus-plus runner and stole 24 bases a year ago. He’ll need to contribute more offensively if he’s to play more than a bench role. Defensive metrics gave the 24-year-old below-average marks for his work at second base. The Pirates also gave him a fair bit of center field run and could use him in a utility capacity.

Of this group, Triolo had easily the best results against MLB pitching. The Houston product put up a .298/.388/.398 line over his first 209 plate appearances. He’d need to dramatically improve his contact rate if he’s to sustain anything like that production over a full season, though. No hitter can maintain anything like the .440 batting average on balls in play that Triolo posted last year. (Freddie Freeman led qualified batters with a .370 BABIP in 2023.) In order to offset the inevitable regression from a batted ball perspective, Triolo will need to cut a strikeout rate that sat above 30%.

While he’s clearly not a finished product, Triolo isn’t without promise. He had a strong minor league track record, including a .286/.412/.432 slash in Triple-A last season. He came up as a third baseman but doesn’t have a path to playing time at his natural position thanks to Ke’Bryan Hayes. Prospect evaluators raved about his glove at the hot corner in the minors. If he can carry that to multiple infield positions, he could compete for second base reps.

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It’s likely one of that quartet will get the bulk of the second base time in 2024, although there’s some chance the mix changes before Opening Day. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey has suggested the Bucs could dangle someone from the group in talks with the Marlins about right-hander Edward Cabrera. It’s far from a guarantee that any deal with Miami will get across the finish line, but the front office is still evaluating ways to add rotation help in some capacity before Opening Day.

Beyond this group, the Bucs have two other second basemen on the 40-man roster. Prospect Tsung-Che Cheng hasn’t played above Double-A and might not factor in until 2025. Alika Williams got to the big leagues last year but likely didn’t hit well enough (.198/.270/.248) to compete for the second base job. He played exclusively shortstop last year when Oneil Cruz was injured but could handle second base defensively. Williams’ bat is very light, pointing to a likelier future as a glove-first utility type than a regular.

Which Is The Best Team In The NL Central?

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The National League Central is arguably the tightest division in the majors right now. That’s subjective but borne out by projection systems. The FanGraphs projected standings have all five teams currently slated for between 83 and 77 wins, the smallest spread from first to last out of the six divisions. The PECOTA standings at Baseball Prospectus aren’t quite as tight, with a spread of 11.7 games from first to last, but that’s still narrower than any other division in the league.

Last year, the Brewers took the division fairly easily, going 92-70 and finishing nine games up on the second-place Cubs. But a lot has changed since then and there could still be more changes to come. The “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger remain unsigned, as do several other free agents. One of those players joining an NL Central club could change the calculation but let’s take a look at where things stand now, in order of last year’s standings.

Brewers: 92-70 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79

The reigning champions have undergone some significant changes, particularly in their rotation. Brandon Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late last year, with the rehab putting his 2024 season in jeopardy. He was non-tendered and re-signed but won’t be a factor until late in the upcoming season, if at all. On top of that, the club traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, meaning they are now without both of their co-aces from recent years.

That makes the rotation clearly weaker than it has been in previous seasons, even though they did acquire some reinforcements. DL Hall came over in the Burnes trade and the Brewers will give him a chance to earn a rotation job. They also re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea in addition to bringing in Jakob Junis and Joe Ross to back up Freddy Peralta, who has now been vaulted to the top spot. Prospects Jacob Misiorowski and Robert Gasser could push for roles during the season.

While the starting rotation has clearly been diminished, the lineup should be better. They didn’t lose any core pieces from last year’s position player mix while they have signed free agents Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sánchez for some extra thump. Prospect Jackson Chourio should be up to make his debut this year while other young players like Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang will hopefully continue to take steps forward. Joey Ortiz, who came over in the Burnes deal alongside Hall, could seize a role on the infield.

Cubs: 83-79 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 80.8

The Cubs have been retooling for a few years but just narrowly missed a return to the postseason in 2023. Their finished 83-79, just one game behind the Diamondbacks and Marlins, who got the last two Wild Card spots. They then saw Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and Marcus Stroman become free agents, subtracting two regulars from the lineup and a starter from the rotation. Candelario since jumped to the Reds and Stroman to the Yankees, though Bellinger is still out there.

In the rotation, Stroman has effectively been replaced by the signing of Shota Imanaga. The Cubs signed him in January and it’s hoped that he can supply at least some mid-rotation production to make up for the loss of Stroman, slotting in next to Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks. A bounceback from Taillon could arguably make the rotation even better this year. The same could be said about a step forward from rookie Jordan Wicks, who debuted last year.

In the lineup, the Cubs are hoping that Michael Busch can be a difference maker. Acquired from the Dodgers in an offseason trade, he has always hit well in the minors but was blocked from seizing a role on his previous club. He’ll take over the first base spot, which was a bit of a hole for the Cubs last year. Bringing back Bellinger to center field still seems possible, but until it happens, the plan appears to be to count on Pete Crow-Armstrong to seize a job. The youngster is considered a great defender but his bat is questionable. Mike Tauchman is on hand if PCA doesn’t make a case for himself.

Signing Chapman to take over third could be a logical move but it’s also possible the club could slot Christopher Morel there. He has an exciting amount of power in his bat and his throwing arm, but concerns about his defense and propensity for strikeouts. Still, the bar is not too high for him to be better than guys like Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom.

Reds: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 79 wins in 2024, PECOTA 78.7

A surge of young position player talent was almost enough to vault the Reds into the playoffs last year. They did that despite a team-wide ERA of 4.83 and and 5.43 mark from their starting rotation. No significant contributors to the 2023 club reached free agency, so even just a bit of internal improvement could make them a contender.

But the Reds weren’t just going to rely on their incumbent options, as they have been fairly active this offseason. They added Candelario to their position player mix despite already having plenty of bats for their lineup. That should give them some cover for any of their young players suffering some regression or an injury.

They also bolstered the pitching staff which, as mentioned, was an issue last year. Free agents Frankie Montas, Nick Martínez, Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter were all signed to the roster. Montas is coming off a lengthy injury absence but was quite effective the last time he was healthy. Martínez could be a back-end addition for the rotation or he might wind up in the bullpen with Pagán and Suter. They could also get better just via health, as no one on the club logged 150 innings last year as each of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft spent time on the IL, while Andrew Abbott didn’t debut until midseason.

Pirates: 76-86 in 2023, FG projects 77 wins in 2024, PECOTA 73

Somewhat similar to the Reds, the Pirates also rode a wave of young talent last year, though it didn’t have the same staying power. They were in first place in the division as late as June 15 but faded as the season wore on and finished outside contention.

They were facing almost no roster losses, as their most significant free agents from 2023 were Andrew McCutchen and Vince Velasquez. McCutchen re-signed while Velasquez only made eight starts last year anyway due to elbow surgery. But they faced other challenges as right-hander Johan Oviedo and catcher Endy Rodríguez both required UCL surgery this offseason and will miss all of 2024.

With Rodríguez out, the club is hoping Henry Davis can pivot back behind the plate and take over. They signed veteran Yasmani Grandal as a bit of insurance in case things don’t work out with Davis. They grabbed a couple of veteran starters as well in Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales, hoping that duo can over for the losses of Oviedo and Velasquez as well as the struggles of Roansy Contreras. The impending debut of prospect Paul Skenes could also help in that department as well, with Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler perhaps not far behind.

The lineup hasn’t drastically changed, with Rowdy Tellez brought in as a bounceback candidate. Perhaps their most impactful lineup upgrade could be the health of Oneil Cruz, who missed most of 2023 due ankle surgery. They also signed Aroldis Chapman to help David Bednar form a lockdown late-inning duo.

Cardinals: 71-91 in 2023, FG projects 83 wins in 2024, PECOTA 84.7

Many predicted the Cards to win the division last year but it clearly did not happen. Plenty of things went wrong, particularly on the pitching side of things, and they ended up in the basement. The team-wide ERA of 4.83 was better than just five teams in the majors, with the 5.08 rotation ERA even worse. Adam Wainwright’s swan song turned out to be ear-splitting while Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty also struggled. Depth guys like Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Jake Woodford were all bad to varying degrees.

Remaking the rotation was the clear priority this winter and they have been active in that department. They quickly signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson at the start of the offseason to replace Flaherty, Montgomery and Wainwright. Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein, Tekoah Roby and Drew Rom were all acquired at last year’s deadline and could make the emergency depth stronger. Victor Santos was added this offseason as part of the Tyler O’Neill trade.

Not too much has changed on the position player side of things. As mentioned, O’Neill was shipped out but the club is hoping to replace him internally. The emergence of Masyn Winn at shortstop means that Tommy Edman is probably now an outfielder full-time, assuming Winn produces better results than he did in his debut last year. Bounceback performances, particularly from Nolan Arenado, will be key. In the bullpen, Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton were traded last summer. The Cards traded for Andrew Kittredge and signed Keynan Middleton to try to make up for those two departures.

Compared to the other divisions in the big leagues, this one is the hardest to decide on a clear favorite. The Brewers are the defending champs but have lost their two aces. Can the extra offense make up for that? Was it a rare blip that the Cardinals were so bad last year? Have the Cubs done enough to get over the hump? Can the Reds or Pirates get enough improvement from their young players to surge ahead?

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