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Bryan Reynolds Expects To Be Pirates’ Right Fielder

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There have been some whispers that perhaps the Pirates would move Bryan Reynolds from the outfield to first base but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards. “It sounds like I’m a right fielder,” Reynolds said today, per Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “It helps to focus on that. Just focusing on that, being a right fielder.” He added that moving from left to right seemed to be “more of a permanent” transition “for now.”

Reynolds has spent his entire career in the outfield, playing all three spots, but the first base rumors started late last year. Back in September, manager Derek Shelton told Hiles that Reynolds had been talking about playing first for years and had recently got a first baseman’s glove.

The Pirates acquired Spencer Horwitz this offseason and he seemed to be slated to be the club’s regular first baseman. However, it was recently revealed that he has undergone wrist surgery and will be sidelined for six to eight weeks. That means the Bucs will need to find alternative solutions there, at least for the beginning of the season.

Despite Reynolds having an interest in the position, it’s understandable that the Bucs don’t want to put him there right now, as it would just further thin out an outfield that already has some questions. Center field is going to be manned by former shortstop Oneil Cruz, who only has 195 innings of experience at his new position. It seems like the favorite for left field is Tommy Pham, who is about to turn 37 years and has has an up-and-down career of late.

Moving Reynolds in to take first would leave a hole on the grass to be filled by a clump of guys including Joshua Palacios, Adam Frazier, Jack Suwinski and Ji Hwan Bae. Next to Cruz and Pham, that doesn’t have the making of a strong group.

Moving from left to right is somewhat notable for Reynolds, as right field is the outfield position he’s played the least. He was primarily a center fielder earlier in his career before moving to left field in the past two years. He does have 398 innings in right, though that’s far less than the 3,062 1/3 frames he’s logged in left.

Metrics are divided on his work in left, as he has four Defensive Runs Saved but -12 Outs Above Average. His sample of work in right is a pretty small sample and tough to draw conclusions from, though he has 75th percentile arm strength and right field is smaller at PNC Park, so perhaps it’s a good move for him.

The Bucs will still have to figure out what to do at first base until Horwitz is back. Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review recently took a look at some of the options, mentioning Jared Triolo, Darick Hall, Matt Gorski, Malcom Nuñez and Suwinski as possibilities.

Triolo just won a Gold Glove for the utility position in the National League last year, spending time at all four infield positions and right field. The larger question would be his bat, since he has a line of .242/.325/.341 in his big league career so far. Hall isn’t on the roster and has minimal big league experience but a big .253/.342/.458 line in his Triple-A career. Gorski isn’t on the roster either and hasn’t made it to the show yet but he had a nice line of .257/.319/.522 in Triple-A last year. Nuñez also has no major league experience and isn’t on the roster. He’s also coming off a poor .250/.310/.365 showing in Triple-A last year.

Suwinski has only played the outfield in his career but there’s potential upside with his bat. Over 2022 and 2023, he hit 45 homers for the Bucs and drew walks at a 12.8% clip. His 31.6% strikeout rate was a problem but the power and on-base abilities made him a productive hitter. Unfortunately, he had a dismal 2024, slashing just .182/.264/.324 and struggling in the minors as well. The first base opening provides a path for him to earn back some playing time but his bat will obviously have to rebound for that to be a realistic possibility. Per Gorman, the Bucs haven’t approached him about playing first but Shelton isn’t opposed to the idea, while Suwinski is open to the switch in order to improve his versatility.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History: Honorable Mentions

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The calendar has flipped to June, and more than one-third of the season is in the rearview mirror. While there’s still plenty of time for the standings to change in dramatic fashion — just ask the 2022 Phillies or 2019 Nationals — the “early” portion of the season is a bit behind us. As the weather heats up and playoff pictures begin to take a more definitive shape, the baseball world inherently turns its focus to a few things: the looming All-Star Game, the upcoming amateur draft and, of course, the annual trade deadline.

June trades of note are admittedly rare — particularly over the past ten years or so — but we’re fast approaching the portion of the season where trade needs, potential trade candidates and many other deadline-adjacent minutiae begin to crystallize. It’s common for fans of rebuilding and/or underperforming clubs to begin to wonder just what sort of returns their favorite team might be able to eke out for veteran players with dwindling club control.

Some of the most common questions we’re asked in chats at MLBTR these days center around what a team might be able to get for a certain player — rentals in particular. Names like Lucas Giolito, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Jeimer Candelario were just a few readers asked me about this past week. To be clear, it’s not a given that all or even any of those specific names will change hands in two months’ time (or sooner), but it’s obviously a hot topic that’s on people’s minds.

As such, it only seemed natural to take a look back through recent history and look at some high-profile trades of rental players and see which panned out the best for the team selling off the veteran player in question. Over the next couple weeks, we’ll roll out a look at the ten “best” returns for rental players in recent trade deadline history.

A few caveats of note! At times, it can take three, four, five years or even longer for a team to begin reaping the benefits from such a deal. An immediate return isn’t always apparent, particularly when you’re only selling two months of a player or players. As such, we’re not considering trades completed at last year’s deadline for our top ten, even though they could well prove excellent as soon as 2024 or 2025. It’s simply too soon to evaluate those swaps. Also, these rankings are subjective; they’re not based on a hard-and-fast WAR criteria or anything of the sort. If you think we should’ve ranked No. 7 higher and No. 4 lower, let us know. It’s all part of the fun.

While I said we’re omitting last year’s deadline from our top ten, that doesn’t mean we’ll completely ignore the results of the 2022 deadline. To kick off the series, here’s a quick look at three honorable mentions from 2017-21 as well as a handful of 2022 trades that will be worth keeping an eye on in the years to come. Present-day impact of these 2022 trades has either been minimal or nonexistent, but each brought the “selling” team some nearly MLB-ready help that could be impactful as soon as this season. These honorable mentions and 2022 swaps aren’t ranked — they’re just sorted alphabetically by the last name of the player who was traded.

Let’s begin!

Honorable Mentions

Orioles acquire RHPs Dillon Tate, Cody Carroll and LHP Josh Rogers from the Yankees in exchange for LHP Zack Britton (7/24/18)

Two-thirds of this return for Baltimore wound up making little to no impact, but the acquisition of Tate, a former No. 4 overall draft pick, wound up paying dividends. Though Tate isn’t the rotation piece the Rangers hoped for when drafting him or the Yankees envisioned when acquiring him for Carlos Beltran, he’s emerged as a quality setup man at Camden Yards. The O’s gave Tate just ten starts after the trade before moving him to the bullpen, and while his rookie effort in 2019 left plenty to be desired, he’s since pitched quite well.

Dating back to 2020, Tate has a 3.65 ERA in 158 innings of relief, adding 25 holds and eight saves along the way. Tate’s 19.1% strikeout rate is below-average, but his 6.8% walk rate is better than average and his 57.9% grounder rate is outstanding. In 2022, he pitched to a pristine 3.05 ERA through 73 2/3 frames, tallying five of those saves and 16 of those holds. A forearm strain has kept Tate out of action this year, however.

Tate isn’t peak Britton and likely never will be, but trading two months of an elite reliever and winding up with six years of club control over an above-average reliever isn’t a bad outcome for Baltimore. As for the Yankees, they got the tail end of Britton’s prime. He notched a 2.88 ERA in 25 innings down the stretch and re-signed on a three-year deal with a fourth year option (that had to be exercised after the contract’s second season to prevent a Britton opt-out). Britton posted a sub-2.00 ERA in both 2019 and 2020, but he pitched just 19 innings over his final two years in New York due to injuries.

Rays acquire LHP Jalen Beeks from the Red Sox in exchange for RHP Nathan Eovaldi (7/25/18)

Few could’ve predicted what an impactful trade this would end up being at the time it was made. At the time of the swap, Eovaldi was in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and had pitched 57 innings of 4.26 ERA ball for Tampa Bay. He’d long intrigued teams with his power arsenal but was inconsistent and carried a career ERA that more or less matched that season total.

Eovaldi took off in Boston, however, tossing 54 frames of 3.33 ERA ball as the Sox marched to the postseason, where he cemented his status in Red Sox lore. Eovaldi was a star that October, tossing 22 1/3 innings of 1.61 ERA ball with a 16-to-3 K/BB ratio. Those are impressive numbers on their own, but they only tell part of the tale. Eovaldi won his first two starts of the playoffs before moving to the bullpen and picking up a pair of holds. But it was Game 3 of the World Series, where Eovaldi gutted out six innings of relief in an 18-inning marathon and finished out the game, that many will remember. The Dodgers wound up winning when Eovaldi’s 97th (!) pitch out of the bullpen was deposited in the seats by Max Muncy, but he saved the Boston bullpen with six innings of one-run ball that night. The Sox went on to win the World Series in five games.

As for the Rays, they came away with a lefty who’d come up through Boston’s system as a starter but would be used in a jack-of-all-trades role in St. Petersburg. Beeks has served as a long reliever, a setup man and an opener in parts of five seasons with Tampa Bay, totaling 258 innings of 4.12 ERA ball along the way. He’s been the type of versatile arm whose value can’t be neatly encapsulated in what looks like an otherwise modest WAR total. Beeks has handled just about any role the Rays could ask, and he’s generally been effective in doing so. He’s not a star, but he’s been an important member of their pitching staff for a half decade now and is still under team control through the 2024 season.

Tigers acquire RHP Reese Olson from the Brewers in exchange for LHP Daniel Norris (7/30/21)

The 23-year-old Olson made his big league debut on Friday when he stepped into the Detroit rotation to take the spot of the injured Eduardo Rodriguez. As far as debuts go, it was nearly as good as a young pitcher could ask for. Olson carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning before being tagged for a pair of runs and departing five frames of two-run ball in the books.

Olson isn’t regarded among the sport’s top 100 prospects and isn’t even universally considered to be among the Tigers’ top 10 prospects, but he’s missed bats consistently in the upper minors and is regarded as a potential long-term rotation piece if he can improve upon the command of his fastball. Scouting reports at Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic and MLB.com praise Olson’s secondary pitches, particularly his changeup, which he’s begun using effectively even in right-on-right situations.

Detroit has seen a lot of turnover in the baseball operations department since this trade, but former GM Al Avila, AGM David Chadd and others will be in line for some praise if the Tigers get a viable big leaguer in exchange for two months of the veteran Norris, who was sitting on a 5.38 ERA in 36 2/3 innings at the time of the deal. Norris had been tough on lefties, and the Brewers surely felt they could coax a higher level of performance out of him with some tweaks. That didn’t happen, however, as Norris was rocked for a 6.64 ERA in Milwaukee, walking 15 of the 63 batters he faced (23.8%) and serving up five homers in 20 1/3 frames (2.2 HR/9).

2022 Deadline Swaps to Watch

Pirates acquire RHP Johan Oviedo, INF Malcom Nunez from the Cardinals in exchange for LHP Jose Quintana, RHP Chris Stratton (8/2/22)

Yes, technically this isn’t a pure rental. Stratton had an additional year of club control, and that surely factored into the return. But he was also sitting on a 5.09 ERA at the time of the deal, and this was largely a trade centered around getting Quintana to land some much-needed rotation help in St. Louis.

The Cardinals got just what they wanted out of this deal — and then some. Quintana stepped into the rotation and not only solidified the staff but pitched to a brilliant 2.01 ERA in 62 2/3 frames down the stretch. The lefty was so excellent that St. Louis wound up tabbing him as the Game 1 starter in last year’s National League Division Series. Quintana had signed a one-year, $2MM deal in the offseason and was acquired as a back-end starter but pitched like an ace. The script doesn’t get much better for the acquiring team.

That said, this trade also has the makings of a winner for Pittsburgh. The 25-year-old Oviedo has been inconsistent but shown flashes of brilliance with the Bucs. He’s throwing fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches — particularly more curveballs, which has been an extremely effective offering for him through 11 starts. Oviedo’s 4.50 ERA in 58 innings looks pretty pedestrian, but he’s upped his ground-ball rate and improved his velocity even in a rotation role. He’s allowed one or zero runs in six of his 11 starts this year. The Pirates can control Oviedo for four more years beyond the current season, and if he’s a legitimate starter or even a multi-inning relief piece, that’ll be a fine return for their modest Quintana flier. Nunez, meanwhile, hit .286/.381/.476 in Double-A following the trade and is at .255/.338/.369 in 160 Triple-A plate appearances this year.

Cubs acquire RHP Ben Brown from the Phillies in exchange for RHP David Robertson (8/2/22)

Robertson was one of the most in-demand relievers — or trade candidates in general — at last year’s deadline, and the rebuilding/retooling Cubs needed to get their return right. So far, it looks like they’ve done just that. Brown is out to a sensational start in the upper minors this year, pitching to a combined 2.63 ERA with a 35.5% strikeout rate against a less-appealing 11.7% walk rate. Baseball America ranked him sixth among Cubs prospects heading into the season, and The Athletic’s Keith Law called him a “heck of a get for two months of a 37-year-old reliever.” FanGraphs currently has him ranked 87th on their top-100 prospect list, and MLB.com moved him into its top-100 just this morning.

Despite Brown’s wide-reaching acclaim, the Phillies might not even regret making the swap. Robertson struggled with his command following the trade but still posted 22 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball and saved six games for Philadelphia down the stretch in a tight Wild Card race that saw them edge out the Brewers by exactly one win. The Phillies needed every single victory, and if they’d held onto Brown and targeted a different reliever(s), who knows whether they’d have reached the playoffs? Were it not for Robertson — who pitched 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs — the Phils may never have experienced J.T. Realmuto’s NLDS inside-the-parker, Rhys Hoskins’ four-homer NLCS, or Bryce Harper’s iconic NLCS-clinching bomb.

Angels acquire OFs Mickey Moniak, Jadiel Sanchez from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Noah Syndergaard (8/2/22)

This trade might not have gone as well as the Phillies hoped. Syndergaard was decent down the stretch, pitching to a 4.12 ERA in 10 appearances, nine of them starts. He started just twice in the postseason and made one relief appearance. Syndergaard pitched like a fourth or fifth starter but saw his already diminished velocity and strikeout rate step even further back following the trade. Again, the Phils needed every last win to get to the playoffs, though, so it’s hard to say they’d definitively have done anything different. They won six of Syndergaard’s nine starts and also picked up the victory in the lone game they used him out of the bullpen, when he tossed two scoreless frames.

At least thus far, Angels fans can’t complain about the return. Moniak isn’t going to sustain a .429 batting average on balls in play, but he’s hitting .327/.340/.694 in 50 plate appearances. The BABIP and a 34% strikeout rate scream for regression, but the former 1-1 pick has already hit as many homers through 50 trips to the plate with the Halos (four) as he did in 167 with the Phillies. He’s played good defense, run well and given some hope that he can carve out a role moving forward.

Red Sox acquire INF Enmanuel Valdez, OF Wilyer Abreu from the Astros in exchange for C Christian Vazquez (8/1/22)

Trading Vazquez was part of a disjointed Red Sox trade deadline that saw Boston trade away their longtime catcher and lefty reliever Jake Diekman while also acquiring Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. It wasn’t clear that their 2023 roster was improved, and the decision to hold onto other trade targets while adding Pham’s salary left them just over the luxury tax line (thereby reducing their compensation for qualifying offers extended to Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi).

Digression aside, the swap might prove beneficial to the Sox in the long run. Valdez has already made his big league debut, and although his bat faded after a hot start, he’s still sporting a passable .244/.292/.422 batting line (91 wRC+) in his first 97 big league plate appearances. He’s picked up four homers, four doubles and three steals (in four tries) while subbing in at second base in the wake of a slew of middle-infield injuries. Valdez posted absolutely massive numbers in 205 Double-A plate appearances last year (.357/.463/.649) before moving up to Triple-A and hitting .265/.327/.488.

Abreu, meanwhile, was added to the 40-man roster over the winter and is hitting .264/.379/.479 in 40 Triple-A games so far. He’s regarded as a potential plus outfield defender, and his success in Triple-A and status on the 40-man roster mean the Red Sox could possibly have two MLB contributors within a year or so of trading Vazquez.

It’s hard to say anything moves the 2022 Astros made “didn’t work out,” as the team won the World Series in the end. But Vazquez took a backseat to Martin Maldonado both in the regular season and the playoffs, hitting just .250/.278/.308 in 108 regular-season plate appearances following the swap (plus .235/.316/.235 in just 19 playoff plate appearances).

Looking At Pirates’ Past Trades That Are Starting To Pay Off

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The Pirates are off to an excellent start to begin the 2023 season, currently sporting a record of 16-7 with a run differential of +25. It’s too early to simply assume that they are quite this good, especially since many of their games have come against teams that aren’t expected to be competitive, like the Reds and the Rockies. But after a couple of 100-loss seasons and an even worse winning percentage in the shortened 2020 season, it’s an encouraging development, even if it’s not wholly sustainable.

As with any rebuilding club, the talent on the roster has been acquired in various ways. Some were brought into the organization with high draft picks, like Ke’Bryan Hayes and Mitch Keller. There are former amateur free agents, like Rodolfo Castro and Ji Hwan Bae. There’s also some veterans on modest free agent deals, like Carlos Santana, Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez. But a sizable portion of the roster was acquired via trade, as is often the case with rebuilding clubs, who use the playbook of sending established players away for prospects.

Some of these trades have been on the minor side, bringing in role players like Connor Joe or Mark Mathias. There have also been a few trades that haven’t worked out, such as the Clay Holmes deal, but here are some that have had a significant impact on the current roster. Also, just as a quick side note before launching into this, general manager Neal Huntington was fired in October of 2019. While most of the moves listed below were completed by his successor, Ben Cherington, the credit on the first few goes to the previous regime.

Watson had spent his entire career with the Pirates up until this point, having been drafted by them and making it to the majors by 2011. He had posted consistently solid results, never finishing a season with his ERA above 4.00, even coming in below 2.00 in both 2014 and 2015. In the 2017 season, he was in his final campaign of control before becoming a free agent. The Pirates made the playoffs in three straight years from 2013 to 2015 but fell below .500 in the two subsequent seasons. That made it a fairly logical move to flip an impending free agent reliever who wasn’t going to be a qualifying offer candidate.

German was a relief prospect who never amounted to much, topping out at Double-A in 2019. He reached free agency and signed a minor league deal with the Rays in 2020 but was released before pitching for them. But landing Cruz is in this deal looks like it will work out quite well for the Bucs. He’s currently on the 60-day injured list due to an ankle injury that required surgery, but he could be back around August. There are concerns about his strikeout rates and shortstop defense, but he has some of the best tools in the league, consistently featuring among the leaders in terms of exit velocities, arm strength and sprint speed. His eventual value will be determined by how much he refines the rougher edges in his game, but he clearly has incredible talent and should impact the club in some way. He’s not slated for free agency until after the 2028 campaign.

After two straight disappointing seasons, the Pirates clearly decided to lean in to their rebuild prior to 2018, making two significant trades within a few days of each other. The first one saw them deal Cole, who had two years of control remaining, to Houston. In return, they got four younger players, the most significant of whom was Musgrove. At the time of the trade, there were some questions about whether he was better suited to be a starter or a reliever. The Bucs gave him the chance to prove himself as a capable rotation member, which worked out for both parties. He posted a 4.23 ERA in 325 1/3 innings over three seasons in Pittsburgh, showing enough potential to establish his bona fides as a starter. That gave him enough trade value to get flipped to his hometown Padres, allowing the Pirates to add more young talent, which we will get to below.

As if the Cole trade wasn’t enough of a sign that the rebuild was on, the Pirates took down the Jolly Roger and waved a white flag when they traded McCutchen just two days later. He had been an iconic player for the franchise for many years, helping them return to contention after two decades of losing, earning the 2013 National League Most Valuable Player award in the process. He had signed an extension with the club going into 2012, a deal that ran through 2017 with a club option for 2018. He had fallen off from his MVP heights but the $14.5MM option price was still a bargain, so the Pirates made the easy decision to pick that up instead of paying the $1MM buyout. However, he would eventually play that season in San Francisco.

While the trade of a face-of-the-franchise player like McCutchen was undoubtedly frustrating for the fan base, it’s paying off now. Crick had some decent results at times for the Pirates but was ultimately released in 2021. The real coup of the deal is Reynolds, who has emerged as a new face-of-the-franchise player for Pittsburgh. He’s hit 79 home runs in his career and is currently sitting on a batting line of .282/.359/.484. He’s set for free agency after 2025, which has made him the constant subject of rumors, both the trade and extension variety. To date, both paths are still open, making it unclear if Reynolds will be part of the next playoff club in Pittsburgh or an extra bullet added to the bottom of this list.

The Pirates managed to sneak above .500 in 2018 but had a dismal season after that, going 69-93 in 2019, making it unsurprising that the selloff continued. Marte had previously signed an extension with the Bucs that ran through 2019 but had two affordable option years, meaning he still had a couple of years of control at the time of this trade. But with contention in that time frame seeming unlikely, he was sent to the desert.

Malone is now 22 years old and has yet to climb higher than Class-A in the minors. Injuries and the pandemic have limited him to fewer than 30 professional innings. Peguero in on the 40-man roster and made his MLB debut last year, though he got into just a single game. His prospect rank has faded in recent years, but he was still considered to be among the 10 best in the system as of the start of this season. He’s off to a slow start this year in a small sample of 11 Double-A games, so he’ll have to turn things around to stop his stock from falling further.

As mentioned earlier, Musgrove had established himself as a viable starter, enough to reap a pile of prospects that has already worked out well for the Bucs. Bednar has become one of the better relievers in the game, currently sporting a 2.82 ERA and 31.3% strikeout rate while racking up 30 saves. The fact that he happens to be a Pittsburgh kid is just icing on the cake. He’s yet to reach arbitration and isn’t slated for free agency until the 2026-27 offseason.

There’s still plenty of time for the Bucs to get even more out of this deal as well, as the other four players are still in their system. The most notable of them is Rodríguez, who is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t made it to the majors just yet. The catcher/infielder/outfielder is a versatile player with a potent bat, making him one of the most highly-touted prospects in the sport. He’s considered to be one of the top 50 prospects in the league by each of Baseball America, FanGraphs, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Keith Law of The Athletic and MLB Pipeline.

Taillon had some good seasons working in the Pittsburgh rotation from 2016 to 2018, but Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2019 and all of his 2020. He was set to return to the mound in 2021 when he still had a couple of years of control remaining. Despite the injury uncertainty, the Yankees believed in Taillon enough to acquire those two seasons, sending four prospects to Pittsburgh in exchange.

Yajure is already gone from the organization and Escotto’s prospect stock has fallen off, but the other two players are still on the roster. Most evaluators project Smith-Njigba for a bench/utility role, though he’s still young, turning 24 this coming weekend. Regardless, the most significant player in this batch seems to be Contreras, as he’s already in the club’s rotation. He has a 3.84 ERA through his first 119 2/3 innings in the big leagues and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2028. If he can continue to hold his own against major league hitters, then the Pirates have a rotation building block in place for the foreseeable future.

Frazier was drafted by the Pirates and had spent his entire career with them up until this point, establishing himself as a solid utility option. His bat was roughly around league average, a useful asset for a player who could be plugged in at almost any position on the diamond. He was having a BABIP-backed spike in 2021, hitting .324/.388/.448 when the Pirates sold high, trading him away while he still had a year and a half of control remaining, getting three young players in return.

Miliano is a 23-year-old reliever who’s yet to surpass High-A, so he’s probably the least likely of this group to be a key contributor going forward. Marcano is in the big leagues but is expected to serve a bench/utility role. Suwinski, however, has the chance to be an impactful member of the club. He’s been playing all three outfield spots in the big leagues, seeming to be a passable defender at any of them. He’s also hit 24 home runs in just 122 games thus far. His 30.3% strikeout rate is certainly on the high side, but he’s also drawn walks at a healthy 12% clip. His .209/.310/.440 career batting line to this point in his career translated into a 109 wRC+, and his batted-ball data in 2023’s small sample is particularly interesting (95.2 mph average exit velocity, 56.3% hard-hit rate). He’s not slated for free agency until after the 2028 season.

Vogelbach was a known power threat, having hit 30 home runs with the Mariners in 2019, but he struggled in the next few seasons and bounced to the Blue Jays and Brewers, getting non-tendered by the latter club after the 2021 season. The Pirates signed him to a modest deal worth $1MM plus incentives, watched him get into a groove and flipped him to the Mets after a few months.

Holderman has just 35 major league appearances to this point in his career, but the results are fairly encouraging.  He has a 3.20 ERA with a 49.1% ground ball rate, helping him keep the ball in the park to such a degree that he’s yet to allow a home run. That surely won’t be able to last forever, but he’s working himself into a high-leverage role with the club, having accrued eight holds already in this young season.

Quintana has a long track record of success in the majors but struggled in both 2020 and 2021, getting bumped to the bullpen in both seasons. The Pirates bought low by signing him to a one-year, $2MM deal and giving him a shot to re-establish himself as a starter. It worked, as he registered a 3.50 ERA with the Bucs, allowing them to flip him to the Cardinals for a couple of younger players. Nunez has yet to reach the majors and is struggling in Triple-A right now, but he’s still just 22 years old. Baseball America and FanGraphs both considered him the club’s #21 prospect coming into the season.

Oviedo was initially a starter with the Cards but got bumped to the bullpen last year. The Pirates are giving him another shot at rotation work with good results so far. He has a 2.78 ERA in 11 starts for Pittsburgh between last year and this year, with a 22.4% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate and 54.8% ground ball rate. Oviedo has more than doubled his curveball usage in 2023, and is throwing the pitch harder than ever before. It’s a small sample, but his swinging-strike rate is up from 11.2% to 14.6%. He’s under club control through 2027.

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It’s no secret that the Pirates are a low-spending club. Looking at data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, which goes back to the year 2000, they’ve never even made it to the middle of the pack in terms of payroll. They’ve frequently been at the very bottom of spenders and their highest relative rank was getting to 19th place way back in 2001. For the clubs that keep the purse strings that tight, it’s essential that they succeed in getting the most out of younger players who haven’t yet maximized their earning power.

Since the major league economic system artificially deflates player salaries until they get to six years of service time, it’s important for a club on the stingy side to find good young players, whether it’s those that they draft/sign or those they get from other organizations. As the Pirates appear to be on the verge of being respectable again, or perhaps have already arrived, they seem to be doing just that. As mentioned, they’ve had the occasional clunker, like the Holmes deal, but a decent chunk of the roster was built via trade. Two of their regular outfielders were acquired in trades, as was their everyday shortstop, although he’s on the shelf right now. Their dealing has also given them two of their five rotation members, some of their best relievers, a few utility players and some key prospects.

Big Hype Prospects: Miller, Nunez, Thomas, Ramos, Duran

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Building on last week’s column, we’ll continue evaluating possible Rule 5 draft targets. By nature, these are not truly “big hype prospects.” After all, Rule 5 picks rarely go on to have notable Major League careers. We’ll have a few leftovers to discuss next week.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Erik Miller, 24, RP, PHI (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 48.1 IP, 11.5 K/9, 5.8 BB/9, 3.54 ERA

At times, Miller looked like he might one day be a Top 100 prospect. At his best, he shows a four-pitch repertoire of average or better offerings from the left side. Unfortunately, errant command causes his stuff to play down. In a brief 12-inning trial at Triple-A, he allowed 14 walks, one hit batter, and four home runs. Between suspect strike-throwing ability and his late-season flop, the Phillies must have determined he couldn’t help them contend in the near future. Their 40-man roster is already crowded. Other clubs without the burden of a 2023 playoff push might be more willing to hand Miller a role, especially since he’s a southpaw. His career has been interrupted by several injuries. A healthy stretch could help him to resolve his command woes.

Malcom Nunez, 21, 1B, PIT (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 493 PA, 23 HR, 5 SB, .262/.367/.466

Designated hitters tend to escape Rule 5 scrutiny. Perhaps we’ll see new trends with the universal DH in place. Nunez has almost no defensive value even though he’s mostly played first and third base. The Pirates acquired the slugger as part of the Jose Quintana deal. Nunez mashed at Double-A last season and had a successful five-game stint in Triple-A. He showed improved strike zone judgment and is prone to hard, low-angle, pulled contact which cuts into his home run potential. He might be a more substantive Rule 5 target this time next year.

Tahnaj Thomas, 23, RP, PIT (AA)
50.2 IP, 9.24 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, 3.02 ERA

Thomas is a former top prospect whose development has plateaued in recent years. He looks like a big league pitcher and even used to brush triple-digit velocity on the regular. Lately, his fastball has sat in the mid-90s. It’s his best offering. A lack of secondary stuff continues to constrain his progression. Given his modest success at Double-A despite middling stuff, I expect some club will take a leap to see if they can teach him a breaking ball during Spring Training. There’s also a chance the right pitching lab work could help him to recover his heater.

Jose Ramos, 21, OF, LAD (A+)
407 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .240/.322/.467

It’s possible 26-man rosters could help a few rebuilding clubs stomach rostering a player like Ramos. He’s a tooled-up slugger who’s prone to flailing at bendy stuff in the dirt. A year ago, he was on a Top 100 prospect trajectory. If he continues to produce in the upper minors, he could still rebound to that level. A jump straight to the Majors is almost certainly doomed to fail in terms of statistical results. Any acquiring team has to be comfortable getting close to no production from the corner outfielder in 2023. Drafting Ramos is a long-term gambit.

It’s worth noting that the Dodgers dev staff is considered one of the best in the league. If they’ve failed to help Ramos lay off breaking balls, there aren’t many clubs that can confidently expect to do better.

Carlos Duran, 21, SP, LAD (A+)
48.2 IP, 12.58 K/9, 4.44 BB/9, 4.25 ERA

This is a classic Rule 5 draft profile – a good young starter coming off a solid, age-appropriate performance. His stuff could instantly pop in the bullpen. The Dodgers never got around to evaluating him as a reliever – at least not during game action. Duran features a spicy upper-90s fastball with bowling ball sink. His slider is also considered a double-plus offering. He throws a changeup and curve, both of which are developing offerings that would likely be dropped if he’s picked up as a Rule 5 reliever. Given his imposing presence on the mound, he evokes another Duran (Jhoan Duran) though he lacks that top-end ceiling. Still, Duran is one of the better bets for teams hoping for the instant gratification of finding a high-leverage reliever.

Five More

Korry Howell, SDP (24): A toolsy utility man who shows best in the outfield, Howell combines plate discipline and speed with questions about his bat-to-ball ability. Though he only has mixed success in Double-A, his speed and defensive versatility might prove attractive to another club.

Corey Julks, HOU (26): Julks is one of the most statistically accomplished players available in the draft. Last season, he hit .270/.351/.503 in Triple-A with 31 home runs and 22 steals. He’s also one of the oldest plausible picks without Major League experience. While he could patch center field in a pinch, he’s a better fit defensively in the outfield corners. The only glaring flaw in his game is a lack of standout tools. Even so, this blend of contact, discipline, pop, speed, and acceptable defense is sufficient to merit an immediate big league look.

Ryan Ward, LAD (24): Over the last two seasons, Ward has popped a combined 55 home runs in 1,001 plate appearances split between High- and Double-A. A left-handed corner outfielder, he’s trending as a righty-mashing platoon bat. While he’d ideally get some time in Triple-A, a non-contending club might tolerate having him on the regular roster as a part-timer.

Dominic Canzone, ARI (24): Like Ward, Canzone passes a smell test as a possible platoon outfielder. He eviscerated Double-A pitching before posting a merely solid .284/.349/.489 line in 364 plate appearances. Remember, the Reno Aces play in a hitters’ haven. While he doesn’t have an obvious path to the Majors with the outfield-rich Diamondbacks, plenty of clubs should be interested in giving him a spring tryout.

Edgar Barclay, NYY (24): Barclay dominated High-A as a strike-throwing bulk reliever. The southpaw has a plus changeup but lacks an impact fastball or breaking ball. Since he’s short and left-handed, he could be used as a situational reliever and mop-up man. His lack of upper-minors experience could be a deterrent.

Cardinals Acquire Jose Quintana, Chris Stratton From Pirates

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The Cardinals added a needed arm to the rotation and picked up a veteran reliever Monday evening, announcing an intra-division trade that will net them lefty Jose Quintana and righty Chris Stratton from the Pirates. In return, the Pirates are receiving righty Johan Oviedo and minor league third baseman Malcolm Nunez.

Jose Quintana | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Quintana was an obvious trade candidate, as he’s an impending free agent on a Pittsburgh club with no chance of reaching the postseason in 2022. The Bucs were certain to move him for some players who could help beyond this season, and as a rental player, there’s no reason for Pittsburgh to be concerned about moving him to a division rival.

The Cards have kicked around the market for higher-impact arms, with former Oakland ace Frankie Montas reportedly a primary target. Once the A’s dealt Montas to the Yankees, it seems the Cards pivoted to a lower-cost veteran stabilizer for the back of the starting staff. Quintana is no longer the mid-rotation arm he was at his peak, the kind of pitcher a club would target to start a playoff game. Yet he’s had a decent bounceback season in Pittsburgh after struggling in 2021.

Quintana has made 20 starts for the Pirates, working to a 3.50 ERA. He’s only averaged a hair above five innings per outing, tallying 103 frames on the season. The sheltered role — in which Pittsburgh has limited his exposure to opposing lineups for a third time in a start — has aided the veteran southpaw, but his production has been good on a rate basis. Quintana’s 20.6% strikeout rate is a bit below average, but he’s induced swinging strikes on a solid 11.2% of his offerings. He’s also generated grounders on a slightly above-average 45% of batted balls — a trait that has been of appeal of the Cards front office in light of the team’s strong infield defense — and he’s only walked 7.2% of opponents.

Adding Quintana addresses a rotation that has been hit with a couple notable injuries in recent weeks. Jack Flaherty is shelved once again after battling renewed shoulder concerns, though the Cards hope he can return late this month. Offseason signee Steven Matz, meanwhile, tore the MCL in his left knee and could miss the remainder of the season. While he’s not officially been ruled out for the year, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that it’d be “very, very difficult” to get him back onto a mound in 2022.

The Cardinals add Quintana to a rotation that also includes Adam Wainwright, Dakota Hudson, Miles Mikolas and rookie Andre Pallante. The Cards have top prospect Matthew Liberatore as a depth option, but he’s bounced on and off the active roster throughout the year. Pallante, meanwhile, has spent a good chunk of the season in the bullpen and could be on an innings limit. Even with a hopeful late-season return from Flaherty, the Cardinals could still look into another rotation pickup in addition to Quintana.

Chris Stratton | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Stratton, meanwhile, gives the Cards a veteran reliever who’s worked in a leverage role with the Pirates for the past few seasons. He’s sitting on an ugly 5.09 ERA in 2022 but was a rock-solid member of the bullpen in 2020-21.

This year’s struggles have come in large part due to a bloated .365 average on balls in play against Stratton, who’s actually sporting a career-low 7.2% walk rate so far. The former first-round pick has seen his strikeout rate dip from last season’s 25.5% to 20.4% in 2022, but his 12.2% swinging-strike rate is right in line with last year’s mark and his 37.3% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate is a career-best (and well north of the league average). He’s also a perennial spin-rate darling, and 2022 is no exception. Stratton leads all of Major League Baseball in fastball spin rate this season, and the spin rate on his curveball clocks into the 99th percentile.

All in all, Stratton looks like a nice rebound candidate, particularly once he moves from a Pirates club that ranks 24th in the Majors with -12 Outs Above Average (per Statcast) to a Cardinals club that ranks third with a collective +19 mark in that same category. As a bonus, Stratton will remain under team control into the 2023 season via arbitration.

It’s an affordable gambit for the Cardinals, as the 33-year-old Quintana is guaranteed just $2MM this season and Stratton is earning a similar $2.7MM salary. The final few months of those salaries won’t make much of an impact on St. Louis’ payroll outlook for the remainder of the year.

Turning to the Pirates’ end of the swap, they’ll add an immediate big league option for their staff in the 24-year-old Oviedo, who has logged MLB time with the Cardinals in each of the past three seasons. The 2022 campaign is the first that he’s enjoyed above-average results, but he’s been quite impressive in a bullpen role this season after struggling as a starter in 2020-21. Through 25 1/3 innings, Oviedo owns a 3.20 ERA with a 24.1% strikeout rate, a very strong 6.5% walk rate and a 43.2% ground-ball rate.

Oviedo is averaging a career-best 95.6 mph on his heater this season after moving into a multi-inning relief role, and he’s sporting career-best swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates (13.3% and 33.9%, respectively). The Pirates could entertain the idea of moving him back into a starting role, but Oviedo has been hit hard as a starter both in Triple-A and in the Majors to this point in his career. The move to the bullpen may well be the best role for him going forward, and if that’s the case he can be a member of the Pittsburgh bullpen for years to come. Oviedo will finish the season with under two years of MLB service, meaning he can be controlled five years beyond the current season.

Nunez, 21, was the Cardinals’ No. 13 prospect on Baseball America’s midseason update of their prospect rankings. He’s in his second stint at the Double-A level and enjoying a much more productive go of it this time around, hitting .255/.360/.463 with 17 big flies in that pitcher-friendly setting. Nunez has walked at a hearty 13.7% clip and is striking out at a manageable 20.3% rate.

Scouting reports on Nunez give him little chance of sticking at third base, but the Cardinals have emphasized improving his defense in recent years and continue to play him at the hot corner. Nunez draws praise for above-average to plus power and a potentially above-average hit tool. A move to first base or even designated hitter might be in his future, but he adds an intriguing bat to the Pirates’ system — one who could soon be ready for the Triple-A level.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the Cardinals were finalizing a Quintana deal (Twitter link). Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch broke the news that Stratton was also headed to St. Louis (on Twitter). Francys Romero reported the Pirates’ return (Twitter link).

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