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MLBTR Podcast: Luis Arráez To San Diego, Other Marlins Trade Candidates And Discussing A Potential Automated Strike Zone

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • When can we expect to see Paul Skenes called up by the Pirates and when do you think Jackson Holliday will be brought up again by the Orioles? (17:10)
  • I’m looking ahead at robo umps calling balls/strikes. Do you think it will dramatically affect counting stats for hitters while affecting pitchers stats negatively in the other direction? (20:55)
  • What measures can be implemented to stop teams like the Tigers from continually rebuilding and why do the Tigers hesitate to send struggling players to the minors? (31:50)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Royals Showed Interest In Luis Arraez Prior To Trade To Padres

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The Marlins got a surprisingly early jump on the trade market this offseason, hammering out a rare May trade of significance when they shipped infielder Luis Arraez to San Diego last Friday in exchange for a package of four players. It’s not entirely shocking given both the Marlins’ awful start to the season and that their trade partner was the hyper-aggressive Padres, whose president of baseball operations, A.J. Preller, leaves no stone unturned when a big-name player is even remotely available. However, it seems the Padres weren’t the only club sniffing around Arraez despite the early nature of his entry to the trade market; Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports this morning that the Royals also showed interest in Arraez before the Padres pulled off that swap.

Rosenthal emphasizes that talks with the Kansas City were preliminary and did not advance far. Still, the mere interest from Kansas City is telling. The Royals had an aggressive winter that saw them spend $109MM across several free agent signings, and now that they’re out to a 20-15 start to the season, it seems they’re interested in further bolstering the club.

Arraez is a limited defender who’s below-average at second base, solid enough at first base and of course has the bat to handle designated hitter duties. The Royals presumably wouldn’t have used Arraez at first base much, thanks to the presence of Vinnie Pasquantino. In all likelihood, Kansas City would’ve given Arraez the bulk of his playing time at second base and designated hitter.

Instead, the Royals will hope for 26-year-old second baseman Michael Massey to continue his recent hot streak and look to get DH/outfielder Nelson Velazquez back to his 2023 form. Velazquez bashed 14 homers in 147 plate appearances for the Royals last year after being acquired in a deadline swap with the Cubs, but he’s hitting just .215/.284/.344 with a 30.4% strikeout rate this season as the team’s primary designated hitter.

Even looking beyond Arraez specifically, the mere fact that Kansas City was poking around the market for one of the presumably few players genuinely available on the trade market at such an early stage in the season signals that the Royals won’t necessarily be content with their offseason additions and any in-house reinforcements that might surface. It also likely signals a willingness to deal from the top end of their farm system. The Royals’ system isn’t viewed as particularly strong, so they’d have had to expend some of their most notable prospects in order to pique Miami’s interest.

Ultimately, news of interest from a team that didn’t wind up trading for a player only carries so much weight. The Royals’ interest in Arraez will be little more than a footnote that’s perhaps worth keeping in mind when he reaches free agency. But it’s also a portent for how the Royals could operate in the weeks and months ahead, and it gives some credence to the idea that they’ll be in the mix when other high-profile bats become available this summer. Whether it was expressed to the Royals that the Marlins would be willing to pay down the remainder of Arraez’s contract isn’t clear. Kansas City opened the season with a roughly $116MM payroll, per RosterResource, and has previously run its payroll as high as $143MM (under the previous ownership regime).

The Royals’ offseason activity already pointed to a win-now mindset, and so long as they remain in or on the periphery of postseason contention, it seems they’ll continue to keep their foot on the gas.

Padres Place Joe Musgrove On 15-Day Injured List

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The Padres announced that right-hander Joe Musgrove has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to right elbow inflammation.  Righty Randy Vasquez has been called up from Triple-A to take Musgrove’s spot on the active roster and in San Diego’s rotation.

More specifically, Musgrove is suffering from triceps tendinitis, as the Padres told reporters (including The Athletic’s Dennis Lin).  Since the IL placement was described as precautionary, it’s possible Musgrove could miss just the minimum 15 days if the triceps issue isn’t overly serious.  However, returning to the IL continues a rough stretch of injury-related misery for Musgrove that has now stretched across two seasons.

A broken toe suffered in a Spring Training weight-room accident delayed Musgrove’s 2023 debut until late April, and he was limited to 17 starts after a bout of shoulder inflammation returned him to the IL in late July, and ultimately ended his season.  The former All-Star still delivered a 3.05 ERA in 97 1/3 innings between these IL stints, but Musgrove has gotten off to a slow start in 2024.

No pitcher in baseball has allowed more home runs (10) or earned runs (29) than Musgrove this season, as he has lurched to a 6.37 ERA over eight starts and 41 innings.  This trouble with the long ball has naturally coincided with a huge drop in Musgrove’s barrels and barrel rate, and his strikeout and hard-hit ball rates are also below average.

It could be that Musgrove’s elbow problem contributed to these struggles, or potentially some lingering affects from his long shutdown period in 2023.  Assuming that his injury doesn’t sideline him for too long, this IL visit could be viewed as something of a chance for Musgrove to reboot his season after his time off.

Getting a healthy and effective Musgrove atop the rotation is critical to the Padres’ hopes, as Musgrove being an unexpected weak link has contributed to an overall inconsistent performance for the rotation.  Dylan Cease has been tremendous and Yu Darvish has started to stabilize after a tough start of his own, while Michael King and Matt Waldron have both been up-and-down.

Vazquez has also made a pair of starts, delivering a 5.87 ERA in 7 2/3 innings.  The 25-year-old right-hander was acquired as part of the Juan Soto trade package from the Yankees this past winter, and it remains to be seen if starting pitching will be his long-term role.  Though he has gotten the start in 92 of his 102 professional games, Vazquez hasn’t shown much at Triple-A (5.19 ERA in 95 1/3 career innings) or his 45 1/3 frames in the majors.  He’ll get another look in Musgrove’s absence, though the Padres could approach Vazquez’s starts as bullpen games if he can’t deliver a good chunk of consistent innings at the front of games.

Padres Select Donovan Solano

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The Padres announced this afternoon that they’ve selected the contract of infielder Donovan Solano. Infielder Eguy Rosario was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move, and San Diego’s 40-man roster now stands at 40.

Solano, 36, is a veteran of ten MLB seasons who first made his debut back in 2012. He struggled to hit at the big league level earlier in his career, with a .257/.306/.331 slash line in 370 games from 2012 to 2016, and didn’t appear at all at the major league level in 2017 or 2018. Since resurfacing with the Giants back in 2019, however, Solano has emerged as one of the more underrated utility hitters in the game in recent years. Since returning to the big leagues in 2019, Solano has slashed an impressive .296/.355/.413 (112 wRC+) without a single below-average offensive season during that timeframe. He’s been even more effective against southpaws, boasting a 119 wRC+ and just a 17.2% strikeout rate against lefty pitchers over the past five years.

On top of that strong work at the plate, Solano has offered considerable positional flexibility. He’s appeared at all four infield spots throughout his career, and while the veteran last appeared in a game at shortstop back in 2021 and has primarily played first base in recent years, he’s still more than capable of covering both second and third base as needed with Outs Above Average grading him as a scratch to slightly below average defender at both positions in each of the last three seasons.

The addition of Solano to the club’s positional mix adds yet another quality infielder to a roster deep in infield talent. With former infielders Jurickson Profar, Jackson Merrill, and Fernando Tatis Jr. now playing the outfield on a full-time basis in San Diego, the Solano figures to join the newly-acquired Luis Arraez in taking starts at first, second, and third base when necessary to back up regular infielders Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim, and Jake Cronenworth. Arraez figures to get the lion’s share of playing time at DH, though Solano figures to act as a solid right-handed complement to both he and Cronenworth to provide manager Mike Shildt with a bit of extra flexibility and protection against injuries.

Making room for Solano’s addition to the active roster is Rosario. The 24-year-old made his MLB debut back in 2022 with the Padres and has generally impressed in an up-and-down role over the past three seasons, but his most recent stint in the majors was perhaps the most impressive of all. In 52 trips to the plate that came mostly by way of platooning with Tyler Wade at third base while Machado recovered from offseason surgery earlier this year, Rosario hit a fantastic .250/.294/.542 (141 wRC+) with a whopping eight extra base hits, including three home runs.

That impressive work at the plate combined with Rosario’s ability to play both second and third base as well as shortstop figure to make him a leading candidate to return to the majors in San Diego should an injury require the club to dip into its depth options. Until then, Rosario will return to the Triple-A level where he’s slashed a solid .282/.363/.486 over the past two seasons.

Padres Acquire Luis Arraez

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12:21PM: The Marlins are eating almost all of the roughly $8.5MM owed to Arraez this season, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reports (X link).  San Diego will owe Arraez only the MLB minimum salary for the rest of 2024, so between this arrangement and moving Go’s salary, the Padres look to have actually reduced their luxury tax number with this trade.

TODAY, 9:34AM: Both teams have officially announced the trade, and the Padres will also be receiving cash considerations from the Marlins.  This will lower the Padres’ financial hit, and give them a bit more breathing room under the luxury tax threshold.

MAY 3: The Padres and Marlins have lined up on a rare May blockbuster. San Diego is reportedly acquiring two-time batting champ Luis Arraez from Miami for four players: prospects Dillon Head, Jakob Marsee and Nathan Martorella, as well as reliever Woo-Suk Go.

Arraez’s tenure in Miami ends after a season and five weeks. The Fish swapped Pablo López to the Twins to acquire him over the 2022-23 offseason. Arraez played up to expectations in the first season. He flirted with .400 for a few months, and while he didn’t maintain that otherworldly pace, he cruised to a second straight batting title and helped Miami to the playoffs. Arraez finished with a .354/.393/.469 line through 617 plate appearances.

As the batting titles would suggest, Arraez has developed into perhaps the game’s best pure contact hitter. He has walked more often than he’s struck out over the course of his career. The Venezuela native has punched out in only 7.5% of his plate appearances in the big leagues. That’s down to a meager 6.4% clip going back to the start of 2022. That leads qualified hitters by more than three percentage points. Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan is the only other player to strike out less than 10% of the time in that span.

Arraez has tallied 148 plate appearances over 33 games this season. His production is down slightly, as he’s hitting .299/.347/.372 without a home run. That’s not much of a concern for San Diego. Arraez is still making contact at an elite rate. He has never been a huge power threat, topping out at 10 longballs a year ago. It’s unlikely that San Diego feels differently about Arraez than they did during Spring Training, when they reportedly made a push for both him and starter Jesús Luzardo.

Going back to the start of 2022, Arraez is a .331/.380/.437 hitter in nearly 1400 plate appearances. He has hit at the top of the lineup in Miami and should do the same with the Padres. San Diego has been using Jurickson Profar in the leadoff spot of late. While Profar’s out to a fantastic start to the season, he can slide down a few spots in a suddenly deeper lineup.

As great a hitter as Arraez is, his game isn’t without flaws. He’s at best a fringe defender at second base. Defensive Runs Saved has generally graded him around league average with the glove, though it has soured on his work in 281 innings this season. Statcast has long panned him as a defender, grading him negatively in all but one year of his career. Statcast estimates he’s been 24 runs below average in nearly 2700 career innings at the keystone.

The Twins played Arraez more frequently at first base back in 2022. He rated better there defensively, although he doesn’t have the traditional power profile expected at the position. That doesn’t seem to be much of an issue for the Padres. Incumbent first baseman Jake Cronenworth is also a hit-over-power player who began his career in the middle infield.

Arraez could see occasional reps at first and second base, but he’s likely to get the bulk of his at-bats as a designated hitter. The Friars have Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim and Manny Machado as their projected starting infield. Machado was limited to DH for a couple weeks as he recovered from last fall’s elbow surgery. He made his return to third base last Friday, and while he has continued shuffling between the hot corner and DH since then, he’ll eventually work back to everyday third base reps.

Machado’s return to third base would have left the Friars without a clear everyday option at designated hitter. Rookie Graham Pauley has gotten some reps there, but he has hit .125/.125/.313 to start his MLB career. Arraez should solidify that spot while still having enough defensive flexibility to allow manager Mike Shildt to rotate other infielders through the position when they need a break on defense.

Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never shied away from pursuing star talent, so it’s not particularly surprising that they’d keep an eye on Arraez. The timing of the trade, though, is a stunner. It’s incredibly rare to see players of that caliber moved this early into a season. Perhaps the best recent comparison is the May 21, 2021 swap that sent Willy Adames and Trevor Richards from the Rays to the Brewers for Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen.

Peter Bendix was serving as Tampa Bay’s general manager (#2 in the front office hierarchy) at the time of the Adames deal. He’s now in charge of baseball operations in Miami. Bendix is evidently not averse to making a major splash at an atypical time if the opportunity presents itself.

The Marlins followed up a quiet offseason with an absolutely terrible April. They enter this weekend’s series in Oakland with a 9-24 record. Whatever slim chance they had of repeating last year’s surprising playoff berth has all but evaporated. Miami was going to be a deadline seller, so there’s sense in moving early if another team put the right offer on the table.

Miami felt that was the case with a four-player return centered around San Diego’s 2023 first-rounder. The Padres selected Head 25th overall out of an Illinois high school. A left-handed hitting center fielder, he split his first professional season between rookie ball and Low-A. Head ranked eighth among San Diego prospects at Baseball America and fifth on Keith Law’s organizational write-up at The Athletic.

Both outlets credit Head with excellent speed and the chance to be a plus defensive center fielder at his peak. BA writes that he’s likely to be a contact-oriented offensive player without a ton of power, but Law wrote that professional scouts were impressed by the bat speed he showed after being drafted. Head has spent his age-19 season at Low-A Lake Elsinore. He’s out to a relatively slow start, hitting .237/.317/.366 with a 24% strikeout rate.

While Head is a long-term development play, Marsee has an outside shot at getting to the big leagues in 2024. A sixth-round pick out of Central Michigan two years ago, he dramatically improved his stock with a .274/.413/.428 showing between High-A and Double-A last season. Marsee followed up with a massive performance in the Arizona Fall League. There was even some speculation he could compete for the Opening Day center field spot, but it quickly became clear that Jackson Merrill was above him in that discussion.

Marsee, 23, ranked between 10th and 12th on the respective organizational prospect lists at BA and The Athletic. He’s credited with advanced plate discipline and instincts but without a ton of power potential. Marsee has played almost exclusively center field in the minors and likely projects as a fourth outfielder. He has spent this season at Double-A San Antonio, where has slumped to a .187/.337/.333 slash through his first 22 games.

Martorella, who is also 23, was a fifth-round pick out of Cal in that 2022 draft. The left-handed hitter has a career .269/.373/.447 batting line in nearly 800 professional plate appearances. He’s out to an excellent .294/.392/.435 start with a pair of homers and six doubles through 102 trips to the plate in San Antonio. Martorella is limited to first base or designated hitter, so he’ll need to hit a lot to be a regular, but he has shown a well-rounded offensive profile in pro ball.

Rounding out the return is Go, whom the Padres just signed out of Korea last winter. San Diego inked the 25-year-old righty to a two-year, $4.5MM deal. He’s playing this season on a $1.75MM salary. He’ll make $2.25MM next year and is guaranteed a $500K buyout on a $3MM mutual option for 2026. As is the case with most players signed out of a foreign professional league, his contract stipulates that he return to free agency at the end of the deal even though he’ll be well shy of six years of MLB service.

Go has yet to pitch in the major leagues. The Padres optioned him to Double-A after he struggled in Spring Training. He has tossed 12 2/3 innings there, allowing seven runs (six earned) on 14 hits. Go has fanned 15 hitters while issuing four walks. He was a closer for the KBO’s LG Twins before making the jump to MLB. He turned in a 3.18 ERA over parts of seven KBO seasons. Go missed plenty of bats in Korea but struggled to consistently throw strikes. Scouting reports before his signing generally suggested he projected as a middle reliever at the MLB level.

It’s the first of what is likely to be a handful of trades for the Marlins over the next few months. Miami seems set to kick off at least a retool, if not a full-scale rebuild. Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are among a number of players whom the Fish could put on the market. It’s unlikely the Arraez trade will open the floodgates three months before the deadline, but it’s clear Miami is already willing to engage in conversations.

Making trades well in advance of the deadline would also allow the Marlins to offload a greater portion of players’ contracts. Budgetary constraints are always present for a franchise that annually runs payrolls in the bottom third of the league. Miami essentially sat out free agency until taking a $5MM flier on Tim Anderson (which hasn’t worked out) at the beginning of Spring Training.

Arraez was one of the higher-paid players on the roster. He’s making $10.6MM this season after losing an arbitration case in February — the second straight year he and the team went to a hearing. Around $8.5MM is yet to be paid. Assuming there are no cash considerations involved, they’ll offload that but assume around $1.4MM of Go’s salary. That amounts to just over $7MM in savings. The team’s estimated player payroll now sits around $92MM, as calculated by RosterResource.

The Padres absorb that money, which is no small matter for a team that spent most of the offseason cutting spending. RosterResource estimates their actual player payroll around $174MM. Their competitive balance tax number is far higher, reflecting their slate of backloaded contracts. RosterResource calculates their CBT in the $232MM range. They’re around $4.5MM below this year’s $237MM base threshold, a marker they were reluctant to cross last winter.

A team’s CBT calculation isn’t determined until the end of the season. This surely isn’t the last of the Padres’ trade activity. Their deadline direction could go in a number of ways depending on how the team performs over the next few months. It’s not even out of the question the Padres fall out of the race and put Arraez back on the trade block in July, though that’s surely not what the front office currently intends.

Even if Arraez finishes the 2024 season in San Diego, he could be a trade candidate next offseason. He’ll go through arbitration once more before hitting free agency during the 2025-26 offseason. The two-time All-Star is likely to command a salary in the $14-16MM range for his final year of club control. The Padres could ostensibly plug him in at second base and move Bogaerts back to shortstop if Kim departs as a free agent, but that’s not something with which the team will concern itself in the short term.

For now, they’ll plug Arraez at the top of the lineup as they push for a playoff spot. They’ll get a few more months of production than they would’ve had they waited to make a traditional deadline move, albeit at the cost of a trio of mid-level prospects and around three-quarters of Arraez’s 2024 salary. There may not be any more huge moves in the next couple weeks, but it’s a precursor to what should be busy summers in both South Florida and Southern California.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Padres were nearing agreement on an Arraez deal for three prospects and a reliever. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic confirmed there was an Arraez trade in place. Craig Mish of SportsGrid was first to report the Marlins’ return.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Luis Patiño Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Padres right-hander Luis Patiño underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday, per Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The righty will miss the remainder of 2024 and some part of 2025 as well.

Patiño, 24, began the season on the 15-day injured list due to elbow inflammation. It seems that subsequent testing revealed the need for surgery. Given the typical 14-18 month recovery range for Tommy John procedures, he will miss the remainder of this year and a significant chunk of 2025 as well.

It’s yet another setback for a pitcher who was once a top prospect. Patiño came up as a Padres prospect and was on Baseball America’s top 100 list in three straight years from 2019 to 2021, being in the top 25 in the latter two. He had a 2.35 earned run average in 234 innings in the minors from 2017 to 2019, striking out 29.4% of batters faced while walking just 8.4%. The Friars called him up in 2020 and he posted a 5.19 ERA in 17 1/3 innings, though he was only 20 years old at that time.

Going into 2021, he was traded to the Rays as part of the Blake Snell deal, going to Tampa alongside Francisco Mejia, Blake Hunt and Cole Wilcox. He tossed 77 1/3 innings in his first season for the Rays, with a 4.31 ERA in that time. His 22.2% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate were fairly average, but not a bad outcome for a pitcher who was only 21 years old and in his first extended look at the big leagues.

But in 2022, an oblique strain cost him more than three months. He was only able to pitch 20 innings on the year and had a bloated ERA of 8.10 in that time. Last year, he was kept mostly in the minors and showcased significant command woes. In 45 1/3 innings for Triple-A Durham, he walked 13.4% of batters and posted a 6.75 ERA.

He went to the White Sox in a cash deal just before the trade deadline and his struggles continued. His 17 2/3 innings in the majors were passable, with a 3.57 ERA. But in 14 1/3 Triple-A innings after the deal, he walked a massive 20.3% of batters faced.

He exhausted his final option year and the Sox designated him for assignment in December. The Padres claimed him off waivers, bringing him back to his original organization. Unfortunately, he’s now facing a significant layoff as he recovers from his surgery.

Amid all of these twists and turns, it’s easy to forget that Patiño is still incredibly young. Though he’s bounced around the league for years and is now out of options, he’s younger than some top prospects who haven’t even made it to the big leagues yet, such as Will Warren or Christian Scott. He still has time to get himself back on track, though he obviously has a long recovery ahead of him now.

If there’s a silver lining in this for Patiño, it’s that he’s already on the major league injured list. He’ll eventually be transferred to the 60-day variety whenever the Padres need his roster spot, collecting big league pay and service time for the whole year. He’ll cross the three-year service mark this season and will be eligible for arbitration this winter, though he’ll be a non-tender candidate given his health status.

Manny Machado Returns To Third Base

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The Padres activated Manny Machado from the paternity list before tonight’s series opener against the Phillies. More notably, he’s in the lineup at third base for the first time this season.

Machado had been limited to designated hitter for the first few weeks. Last October, he underwent surgery to repair the extensor tendon in his right elbow. The offseason provided enough of a recovery window for Machado to resume hitting by Opening Day, but he wasn’t quite ready to throw at the level needed to play the left side of the infield. That’s evidently no longer the case.

Rookie Graham Pauley is in the DH spot tonight against Aaron Nola. The Friars used Jurickson Profar as the designated hitter in three of the four games that Machado missed while on paternity leave. Profar is back in left field for today’s contest.

Machado will probably still see a fair amount of DH action in the next couple weeks. It stands to reason that manager Mike Shildt and the coaching staff will be wary of putting too much stress on his arm right away. As Machado builds increasingly back to everyday third base work, San Diego could rotate various players through the DH spot.

The Friars have had to live without much offensive production at third base as they’ve relied on utility players to handle the position for a few weeks. San Diego third basemen — primarily Tyler Wade and Eguy Rosario — have combined for a .228/.291/.316 slash line. That ranks 19th in MLB in on-base percentage and 21st in slugging. Rosario and Wade can each play multi-positional roles off the bench, while Matthew Batten was optioned to accommodate Machado’s reinstatement to the active roster.

Latest On Padres, Diamond Sports Group

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11:38am: The second payout is evidently not all that significant. Sanders reports (on X) that the Padres will receive roughly $17MM in total from the settlement, indicating the remaining-asset value is roughly $6.5MM.

10:06am: There were minor developments in the long-running Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy proceedings this week. Most notable is the revelation of a deal that the broadcasting conglomerate struck with the Padres last summer.

As Daniel Kaplan of Awful Announcing first reported, Diamond agreed in July to a deal that could pay the San Diego organization as much as $78.9MM to resolve breach of contract claims which the Padres made after Diamond dropped the team’s TV deal last spring. The Padres initially sought a $162MM award as compensation for the lapsed television contract before agreeing to the lesser sum in mediation.

That money has not yet been paid. The settlement calls for an initial payment of roughly $10.5MM, followed by a second payout worth a maximum of $68.3MM that’ll be determined by calculating the remaining assets of that contract’s value after the Diamond/Padres RSN network is officially liquidated. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Diamond will owe the approximate $10.5MM payment by the middle of May. The timeline for the second sum is still not clear.

As part of the agreement, the Padres and Diamond agreed to drop all litigation against one another. The Friars have proceeded without an RSN deal since Diamond abandoned the contract. MLB has handled in-market broadcasting in San Diego via MLB.tv. The league covered 80% of what the Padres would’ve received — Sanders writes that the deal was valued around $60MM annually — for the 2023 season. Commissioner Rob Manfred has said that the league would not cover lost rights fees for this year and beyond.

The Padres are one of two teams which Diamond had covered but abandoned midseason. The company did the same with the Diamondbacks a few weeks after dropping the San Diego deal. It is not known if Diamond has agreed to any kind of settlement with the Arizona franchise.

Diamond continues to hold local broadcasting rights for 12 teams: the Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Guardians, Marlins, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Royals, Tigers and Twins. While it initially seemed as if Diamond would disband after the 2024 season, an influx of cash as part of a streaming partnership with Amazon has given the company confidence about its viability beyond this year. That’s not entirely shared by MLB, which continues to express skepticism about Diamond’s long-term prospects. The Atheltic’s Evan Drellich writes that the bankruptcy court has scheduled a hearing for June 18 on the company’s specific plans for its $450MM in financing from the Amazon deal.

2023 Rule 5 Update: April Edition

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We’re three weeks into the 2024 season, and this year’s crop of Rule 5 picks has had an atypical amount of staying power. That’s perhaps in part due to the fact that only ten players were selected in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but as of this writing, only one Rule 5 selection has been returned to his original organization.

For those unfamiliar, in order to be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, a player must not be on his team’s 40-man roster and must have played in either parts of five professional seasons (if they signed at 18 or younger) or four professional seasons (if they signed at 19 or older). The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 by selecting their contracts to the 40-man roster typically falls in mid-November and spurs a good deal of player movement as teams jettison borderline players and non-tender candidates from their roster in order to protect younger prospects.

A player who is selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire subsequent season on his new club’s Major League roster and cannot be optioned to the minors. The player can technically spend time on the injured list as well, but at least 90 days must be spent on the active roster. If not, the player’s Rule 5 status rolls into the following season until 90 days on the active roster have been accrued. If a team at any point decides it can no longer carry a Rule 5 selection, that player must be passed through waivers and subsequently offered back to his original organization. Any other club can claim the player via waivers, but the same Rule 5 restrictions will apply to the claiming team.

Broadly speaking, the Rule 5 Draft rarely produces impact players. There are plenty of exceptions over the years, though, with names like Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton and, more recently, Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Stephan thriving in new organizations. The Rule 5 Draft dates back more than a century and has even produced a handful of Hall of Famers: Roberto Clemente, Hack Wilson and Christy Mathewson.

It’s unlikely we’ll see any Cooperstown-bound players come from this year’s crop, but the teams who opted to select a player will be content if any of these names become a viable reliever or role player for the next several seasons. Here’s a look at this year’s group of ten Rule 5 players and where they stand. We’ll do a few of these throughout the season, keeping tabs on which players survive the season and formally have their long-term rights transferred to their new clubs.

On a Major League Roster

Mitch Spence, RHP, Athletics (selected from Yankees)

Spence, 26 next month, was the first overall pick in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, and understandably so after the 2023 season he had. His 4.47 ERA might’ve been pedestrian, but the 2019 tenth-rounder led all Triple-A pitchers with 163 innings while delivering a nice blend of strikeouts (21.8%), walks (7.5%) and ground-balls (50%). For an A’s club desperately thin on starting pitching after the slew of rebuilding-driven trades for minor league arms have failed to produce much, adding a 25-year-old arm with that type of season held obvious appeal.

Spence made Oakland’s decision easy with a monster spring showing. He pitched 17 2/3 innings and allowed only six earned runs (3.06 ERA) on 15 hits and six walks with 21 punchouts. He’s worked out of the ’pen so far in Oakland but could very well find himself making starts later in the year. Through his first 11 2/3 MLB frames, Spence has yielded four earned runs on 10 hits and four walks with a 48.4% grounder rate. He’s not in danger of losing his spot anytime soon.

Matt Sauer, RHP, Royals (selected from Yankees)

Another 25-year-old righty out of the Yankees organization, Sauer came to his new club with a much heavier draft pedigree than his now-former teammate, Spence. The Yankees selected the 6’4″ righty with the No. 54 overall pick back in 2017, but Sauer didn’t develop as quickly as hoped. He was set back by 2019 Tommy John surgery and the canceled 2020 minor league season. He’s never topped 111 innings in a season, but Sauer rebuilt some prospect pedigree with a nice 2023 season that saw him pitch 68 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball in Double-A. He whiffed 29.5% of his opponents, albeit against a less palatable 10.3% walk rate.

Like his former teammate, Sauer had a nice spring that made the decision relatively easy for his new club. In 10 2/3 innings, he held opponents to three earned runs (2.53 ERA) on 13 hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts. He opened the season in the Kansas City bullpen and has thus far pitched five innings, allowing a pair of runs in that time. Sauer has walked four of his 25 opponents and fanned just two thus far. It’s a small sample, of course, but he’ll need to reverse that early trend to hang onto his roster spot — especially if the Royals continue their hot start and find themselves contending into the summer.

Anthony Molina, RHP, Rockies (selected from Rays)

The 22-year-old Molina worked as a starter in the Rays’ system last year, taking the ball 28 times (27 starts) and pitching 122 innings with a 4.50 ERA. The undersized righty has garnered praise for a solid-average heater and above-average changeup, and he showed good command in 2023 after struggling with walks earlier in his minor league career. Molina continued to show good command in spring training (in addition to a massive 60.5% grounder rate), but the regular season has been brutal for him thus far. In three appearances, he’s been tattooed for a dozen runs on 13 hits and four walks with just two strikeouts. The Rockies can afford to be as patient as they want. They’re 4-13 on the season and were never expected to contend. Still, Molina will need to improve on his early performance in order to stick on the roster.

Nasim Nunez, INF, Nationals (selected from Marlins)

The Nationals have effectively played the season thus far with a 25-man roster. Nunez made the Opening Day squad but has been M.I.A. since. He’s appeared in just five of Washington’s 16 games and received only two plate appearances, going hitless in that meaningless sample. Nunez is an all-glove and speed prospect who hit just .224/.341/.286 in Double-A last season. He did go 52-for-59 in stolen base attempts, and scouting reports have long touted his defensive excellence at shortstop. He hit just .152/.200/.182 in 35 spring plate appearances.

It’s fair to wonder how long the Nats can essentially punt a roster spot by keeping Nunez on the bench, but like the Rockies, they’re not expecting to contend this season anyhow. One would imagine that from a pure developmental standpoint, they need to find a way to get Nunez into some games and start getting him some playing time, but for now, the team appears content to just hide the 23-year-old on the bench.

Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Cardinals (selected from Red Sox)

Fernandez, 25, has just four appearances out of the St. Louis bullpen so far and has been understandably deployed in low-leverage spots while he acclimates to the majors. He’s pitched fairly well in sparse duty, holding opponents to three runs (two earned) in 5 2/3 innings. Fernandez has averaged just under 96 mph on his heater, fanned seven opponents and issued three walks. His swinging-strike rate isn’t close to where it’s been in his minor league work, but his wipeout slider has been strong thus far. Fernandez has finished off eight plate appearances with that pitch, picking up four strikeouts and yielding only one hit. Nothing he’s done so far makes it seem like he’ll be cut loose anytime soon.

Justin Slaten, RHP, Red Sox (selected by Mets from Rangers; traded to Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons)

While most Rule 5 relievers are eased into low-pressure spots, that hasn’t been the case with the Sox and Slaten. He held a four-run lead to pick up a seven-out save in the team’s fourth game of the season, and the 6’4″ righty has since tallied three holds out of Alex Cora’s bullpen. In 10 1/3 innings, Slaten has allowed only one run on three hits and a walk with eight strikeouts. Add in 6 1/3 shutout innings in spring training, and he’s looked more like a seasoned veteran than a 26-year-old who entered the season with all of 8 1/3 innings above the Double-A level. Slaten has immediately made himself an important part of Boston’s roster, and while a prolonged slump could always change things, he looks like a keeper right now.

Stephen Kolek, RHP, Padres (selected from Mariners)

Kolek, who’ll turn 27 tomorrow, began his big league tenure with four runs in 1 2/3 innings over his first two appearances. He’s since bounced back with 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball, fanning 11 hitters against three walks along the way. He punched out nearly a quarter of his opponents in Triple-A last year and did so with a huge 57.5% ground-ball rate. He hasn’t picked up grounders at such a strong level just yet (43.5%), but San Diego probably isn’t second-guessing their decision to select him. He’s already picked up a pair of holds, and his recent run of success has dropped his ERA to 4.35. Command has been a problem for Kolek in the past, but he’s only walked 8.9% of his opponents against a 26.7% strikeout rate so far.

On the Major League Injured List

Shane Drohan, LHP, White Sox (selected from Red Sox): Drohan underwent shoulder surgery in late February and is on the 60-day IL. There’s no telling yet when he’ll be medically cleared to return. As noted in the intro, Drohan needs 90 days on the active roster to shed his Rule 5 designation; even if he spends the entire 2024 campaign on the injured list, his Rule 5 status will carry over into 2025 until he picks up those 90 active days.

Carson Coleman, RHP, Rangers (selected from Yankees): Coleman is also on the 60-day injured list. Unlike Drohan, it was well known at the time of his selection that he’d be IL-bound to begin the year. Coleman had Tommy John surgery last year and is expected to be out until midsummer at the least.

Returned to Original Organization

Deyvison De Los Santos, INF, Guardians (returned to D-backs): De Los Santos has big raw power but a well below-average hit tool. The Guardians selected him on the heels of a 20-homer campaign in Double-A with the D-backs, but he hit just .227/.227/.318 in 44 spring appearances before being designated for assignment, clearing waivers and getting returned to the Snakes. He’s had a big performance in a return-trip to Double-A.

Padres Place Yu Darvish On Injured List

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The Padres announced Wednesday that they’ve placed righty Yu Darvish on the 15-day injured list due to a tightness in his neck and recalled right-handed reliever Logan Gillaspie from Triple-A El Paso in his place. Darvish’s IL placement is retroactive to April 15.

Darvish had been slated to take the ball for San Diego on Saturday but will now be sidelined until at least April 30. The team hasn’t provided further details on the injury or given a timetable for the length of his expected absence. The Friars also haven’t listed a replacement starter for Saturday yet, though they have an off-day tomorrow which could allow them to move everyone else up a day for the time being without starting someone on short rest.

In five starts this season, the veteran Darvish has pitched 23 2/3 innings and notched a 4.18 ERA. He’s sitting on an uncharacteristically low strikeout rate (21.9%) and high walk rate (9.9%). Darvish’s most recent start against the Dodgers, wherein he yielded three runs and fanned just two in five innings, saw his average fastball drop more than a mile per hour relative to his season debut.

With Darvish shelved  for a yet-to-be-determined period of time, the Padres will lean even more heavily on the trio of Joe Musgrove, Dylan Cease and Michael King. Twenty-seven-year-old knuckleballer Matt Waldron has pitched well through three starts but comes with minimal track record in the big leagues. Other rotation options on the 40-man roster include righties Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez in addition to lefties Jackson Wolf and Jay Groome. Brito is already on the big league roster in a long-relief capacity. Groome has yet to pitch more than two innings in a Triple-A appearance this season. Both Wolf and Vasquez have been hit quite hard in their first looks of the ’24 season in El Paso.

The 37-year-old Darvish is in the second season of a six-year, $108MM contract that runs through his age-41 season. That deal, which promised Darvish five years and an additional $90MM on top of the final $18MM he was owed under his prior contract, was engineered in many ways as a means of tamping down his luxury tax hit. The $90MM in new money was closer to what one might’ve expected for a then-36-year-old Darvish over a three-year term. He’d finished eighth in Cy Young balloting a season prior, rattling off 194 2/3 innings of 3.10 ERA ball. The Padres instead stretched what looked like three-year money out over an additional five years, weighing down the annual value and lessening the contract’s luxury hit in the process.

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