MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The AL West?
George Springer, Marcus Semien, Liam Hendriks, Lance Lynn….it seemed that for much of the offseason, the news out of the AL West focused on what stars were leaving the division, rather than joining. It has made for an intriguing divisional race as we approach Opening Day, so let’s run down the contenders as per Fangraphs’ projected standings.
The Astros are judged to be the best of the bunch, projected for an 89-73 record despite losing Springer, potentially losing other still-unsigned free agents (i.e. Josh Reddick, Roberto Osuna), and losing Justin Verlander last season to Tommy John surgery. On the plus side, the Astros brought a couple of key offensive players back into the mix by re-signing Michael Brantley and Yuli Gurriel, and they added Jake Odorizzi to a bolster an injury-hampered rotation. There are certainly some question marks on Houston’s roster, but the core group of talent might be enough to capture the division.
Clocking in with an 84-78 projection, matching this record would give the Angels their fourth-highest win total since 2012 — Mike Trout‘s first full season in the big leagues. The Halos’ inability to build a winner around their superstar has been a sore point for both Orange County fans and perhaps the baseball world at large, but comparatively speaking, the Angels also didn’t suffer as many major personnel losses this winter as their division rivals did. While the Angels didn’t make any blockbuster acquisitions, they did aim to get better, adding such second-tier veterans as Raisel Iglesias, Jose Quintana, Alex Cobb, Jose Iglesias, Dexter Fowler, and Kurt Suzuki. With Trout and Anthony Rendon anchoring the lineup and Shohei Ohtani perhaps healthy again, do the Angels have enough to finally get back to the postseason?
The reigning AL West champion Athletics are projected for a modest 83-79 mark, as Oakland lost some significant veteran talent in Semien, Hendriks, Robbie Grossman, Joakim Soria, and Tommy La Stella. Of course, the A’s have made a habit of overachieving in the Billy Beane era, and they do have a lot of promising young arms. If the pitching staff can healthy and even a couple of hurlers make the proverbial leap, the A’s might have one of the sport’s better rotations. On the offensive side, Oakland is hoping Elvis Andrus thrives with a change of scenery, and that Matt Chapman and Matt Olson hit a bit more like their usual selves.
If the three front-runners all have their weak spots, is there an opportunity for an underdog to emerge? Fangraphs doesn’t thinks so, as both the Mariners (74-88) and Rangers (72-90) are projected to fall well back of the pack, yet it isn’t as if either team is bereft of talent. Seattle has a lot of promising young players that could possibly break out early and help Marco Gonzales, Kyle Seager, and bounce-back candidate James Paxton steal some wins. The Rangers made some interesting additions in Dane Dunning, Nate Lowe, and David Dahl, plus you figure Texas is due for some better offensive luck considering virtually the entire team (even star Joey Gallo) had down years at the plate in 2020.
So, the question remains, who will end up as AL West champions? (Poll link for app users)
Who will win the AL West?
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Athletics 32% (3,980)
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Astros 28% (3,517)
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Angels 27% (3,361)
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Mariners 9% (1,160)
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Rangers 3% (420)
Total votes: 12,438
Rangers Prospect Bayron Lora In Car Accident
MARCH 14: Lora has been released from the hospital, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link). An investigation into the accident is ongoing.
MARCH 13: Rangers outfield prospect Bayron Lora is in hospital after a recent car accident in his native Dominican Republic, Hector Gomez of Deportivo Z 101 (Twitter links) reports. One of the passengers in Lora’s car was killed in the collision. Lora and the other passengers are in serious condition, though in a follow-up tweet, Gomez writes that Lora “has been recovering satisfactorily.”
The Rangers released a statement, saying “We are aware of the accident involving Bayron Lora and several other individuals today in the Dominican Republic. We are working to gather more information at this time. Our thoughts and prayers are with the individuals who were involved in this accident and with their families. We have will have no further comment until we have more information on the accident. Thank you for your understanding.”
The 18-year-old Lora signed with Texas during the 2019-20 international signing window, inking a deal that contained a $3.9MM bonus. Lora was considered one of the top hitting prospects of the 2019-20 int’l class, with MLB Pipeline’s scouting report citing his “prodigious bat speed and strength.” Pipeline ranks Lora 20th on its list of the Rangers’ top 30 prospects, and gave Texas fans a noteworthy comp in saying that Lora is “looks like Joey Gallo‘s tag-team partner and produces similar exit velocities.”
Rangers Plan To Limit Lyles To 50-60 Pitches Per Start
Jordan Lyles won’t get turns as a traditional starter to open the season for the Rangers, and he’s not thrilled about it, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter). Rangers manager Chris Woodward told the 6’5″ right-hander that he’s likely headed for 50-60 pitch outings, at least to start the season. Lyles surrendered more earned runs than any other pitcher in 2020, finishing with a 7.02 ERA/5.95 FIP in 57 2/3 innings. Outside of a 2-inning outing to start the season, Lyles served as a starter, though he did twice enter the game following an opener. Despite his struggles, Lyles averaged 88 pitches per outing as a starter/follower. The Rangers presumably want to protect Lyles while getting an extended look at some of their younger hurlers like Taylor Hearn and Brett Martin. Staying in Texas…
Matt Bush Has Opportunity To Make Rangers' Bullpen
- Non-roster invitee Matt Bush has a good chance to earn a spot in the Rangers‘ season-opening bullpen, writes Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. That’s especially the case now that Jonathan Hernández will open the year on the injured list. After a strong two-year start to his MLB career from 2016-17, Bush had a rough 2018 season. He struggled for much of the year, then suffered a UCL tear that September. After rehab failed to correct the issue, Bush underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2019. The timing of that procedure kept him out through the end of 2020.
Rangers’ Jonathan Hernandez Shut Down At Least Four Weeks
Young Rangers right-hander Jonathan Hernandez will be shut down for at least the next four weeks after being diagnosed with a “low-grade” sprain of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, tweets Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The team is not yet anticipating surgery will be necessary, but the shutdown means they’ll be without one of the most promising members of their bullpen for an extended period.
Hernandez, 24, had a shaky 2019 debut but broke out with a 2.90 ERA and 3.67 SIERA in 31 innings last season. The young flamethrower averaged 98.3 mph on his sinker and punched out a quarter of the batters he faced against a tidy 6.4 percent walk rate. He’d been expected to be one of the team’s primary late-inning options, but the fact that he won’t throw at all until after Opening Day means that even in a best-case scenario he could miss a month or more of regular season work. Hernandez will need to build back up and go on a rehab assignment before he reemerges as an option in the Texas bullpen.
Injuries pertaining to the UCL carry the risk of Tommy John surgery, and a even a mild sprain, by definition, means there is some degree of stretching/tearing in the ligament at present. The extent of the damage is apparently mild enough that the team will hope to avoid that last-resort scenario for now.
It’s long appeared likely that there are some spots in the Rangers’ bullpen up for grabs, and an absence for Hernandez only adds to that reality. Jose Leclerc is expected to be back from last year’s teres major strain to handle ninth-inning duties. Left-hander Joely Rodriguez has been slowed by a sprained ankle in camp but is expected back on the mound shortly and, if healthy, should get late-inning work. But the Rangers are lacking in seasoned bullpen arms overall, creating the possibility for young arms to break through and for minor league signees to land spots on the 40-man roster. Veterans such as Ian Kennedy, Nick Vincent, Hunter Wood and Sam Gaviglio are in camp on non-roster deals, as is righty Spencer Patton, who has reinvented himself in Japan over the past four seasons.
Joely Rodriguez Behind Schedule
- Rangers reliever Joely Rodríguez is “a couple of weeks behind” schedule of the team’s other relievers, president of baseball operations Jon Daniels told reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). The southpaw was bothered by an offseason ankle issue; he’s now pain-free, but the injury delayed his ramp-up before spring training. It remains to be seen if he’ll have enough time to build up before Opening Day. Rodríguez was a bright spot in limited time with Texas last season, striking out seventeen while issuing five walks across 12.2 innings of three-run ball.
Ian Kennedy Fielded Offers From Two Teams Before Choosing Rangers
- Ian Kennedy debated signing with two other teams before settling on the Rangers’ minor league offer, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (via Twitter). The Royals, Kennedy’s former team, were one of the two other suitors, though Kennedy seems to have a clearer path to regular bullpen work in Texas. A starter for all but two of his first 291 MLB games from 2007-18, Kennedy enjoyed a stellar season as the Royals’ closer in 2019, but he is out to re-establish himself after a difficult 2020. Kennedy posted a 9.00 ERA over 14 innings before a left calf strain brought a premature end to his season.
- Danny Santana is also coming off an injury-plagued season, as the super-utilityman amassed just 63 plate appearances over 15 games with the Rangers. After undergoing elbow surgery in September, Santana is now set to hold a showcase for scouts on Thursday, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) reports, and Santana has also been holding private workouts for teams. The 30-year-old has played all over the diamond over his seven years with the Twins, Braves, and Rangers, and was a revelation for Texas in 2019 — he hit .283/.324/.534 with 28 home runs, with by far his best wRC+ (111) since a 132 wRC+ over 430 PA as a rookie with Minnesota back in 2014.
Rangers To Sign Ian Kennedy To Minors Deal
The Rangers will sign reliever Ian Kennedy to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Boras Corporation client will earn $2.15MM if he makes the team, plus more in performance incentives, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
Kennedy is coming off a five-year run with the Royals that included a full-time transition to the bullpen in 2019. After more than nine seasons of working out of the rotation for the Yankees, Diamondbacks, Padres and Royals, Kennedy became Kansas City’s full-time closer in 2019, tossing 63 1/3 innings in 63 appearances with a 3.41 ERA/2.99 FIP, 44.4 percent groundball rate, 27.4 percent strikeout rate, and 6.4 percent walk rate. All three of those rate metrics clock in above average.
Kennedy unfortunately struggled to find his footing in 2020, logging a 9.00 ERA/8.83 FIP in 14 innings. He suffered a left calf strain that ended his season before September. If healthy, he’ll have a real chance to make a Rangers bullpen that’s light on sure-things beyond closer José Leclerc. Even entering his age-36 season, Kennedy represents a fairly high upside signing for Texas considering his hefty resume. Kennedy owns a 4.13 ERA/4.25 FIP in 1,781 1/3 innings in the big leagues.
Rangers Outright Jimmy Herget To Triple-A
- The Rangers announced that right-hander Jimmy Herget has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A, though Herget will still be invited to the big league Spring Training camp. Herget was designated for assignment earlier this week. Selected off waivers from the Reds last winter, Herget posted a 3.20 ERA and 17 strikeouts over 19 2/3 innings for Texas last season, but control was a major issue, as he also walked 14 batters.
Rangers Sign Tyson Ross
The Rangers have signed right-hander Tyson Ross to a minor league contract, per a club announcement. The Wasserman client won’t be in Major League camp and will instead report to Spring Training with the minor league rehab group, per the announcement.
Ross, 33, opted out of the 2020 season and hasn’t pitched at the big league level since an ugly 2019 run with the Tigers (35 1/3 innings, 6.11 ERA). He’s battled shoulder and elbow troubles throughout his career, including a thoracic outlet procedure back in 2016. This’ll be the second Rangers stint for Ross, who was with the club in 2017 as well.
While injuries have derailed much of Ross’ career, there was a point where he was one of the better young starters in the National League. From 2013-15, Ross tallied 516 2/3 innings with the Padres and turned in a tidy 3.07 ERA with a 24.6 percent strikeout rate. That mark was more impressive at that point, as the league-average strikeout rate for hitters in that three-year span was 20.2 percent — a good bit lower than today’s average 23.4 percent.
Ross hasn’t had much success since that first Padres run, thanks primarily to injuries, but he did mix in a solid 2018 showing amid a series of injury-marred seasons. He returned to the Padres as a free agent in the 2017-18 offseason and gave them 22 starts of 4.45 ERA ball before being traded to the Cardinals and pitching well out of their bullpen. All in all, that 2018 season resulted in 149 2/3 innings of 4.15 ERA output — a far cry from his 2013-15 peak but still plenty useful for both clubs whose uniform he donned.
It’s anyone’s guess whether Ross can shake off the rust and the persistent injuries and return to form in a second go-around in Arlington. That he won’t report to big league camp indicates that he’ll be more of a mid-season option than a candidate to crack the Opening Day roster, but Ross is a no-risk veteran depth stash with a fair bit of MLB success under his belt. There’s no harm in seeing what he can bring to the table at this point, and if he does regain his form, he’s a versatile pitcher familiar with multiple roles who can help the Rangers navigate a 162-game slate that will prove challenging after last year’s 60-game schedule.