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Martinez On Decision To Release Solis

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  • Left-hander Sammy Solis was caught “completely off guard” by the Nationals’ decision to release him, the pitcher tells Richard Justice of MLB.com. Solid seemingly took the abrupt and unexpected news in good stride, thanking the organization and expressing some disappointment over having to say goodbye to longtime teammates. As manager Dave Martinez explains, the move was made with an eye toward giving Solis a chance to find another organization before the season begins. “For me, it was more about giving Sammy an opportunity to latch on with another team and get a chance to have that Spring Training elsewhere,” said Martinez. The Nats also shed $713K in salary with the move, which surely played a factor as well. The 30-year-old Solid has had a pair of unsightly seasons over the past two years, including a 2017 campaign that was shortened by elbow troubles. He maintains that he’s healthy now, though, and one would imagine that a lefty who averaged nearly 94 mph on his fastball to go along with a 12.9 percent swinging-strike rate in 2018 will garner interest — even if only on a minor league contract.
  • Left-hander Sammy Solis was caught “completely off guard” by the Nationals’ decision to release him, the pitcher tells Richard Justice of MLB.com. Solid seemingly took the abrupt and unexpected news in good stride, thanking the organization and expressing some disappointment over having to say goodbye to longtime teammates. As manager Dave Martinez explains, the move was made with an eye toward giving Solis a chance to find another organization before the season begins. “For me, it was more about giving Sammy an opportunity to latch on with another team and get a chance to have that Spring Training elsewhere,” said Martinez. The Nats also shed $713K in salary with the move, which surely played a factor as well. The 30-year-old Solid has had a pair of unsightly seasons over the past two years, including a 2017 campaign that was shortened by elbow troubles. He maintains that he’s healthy now, though, and one would imagine that a lefty who averaged nearly 94 mph on his fastball to go along with a 12.9 percent swinging-strike rate in 2018 will garner interest — even if only on a minor league contract.
  • Right-hander Pablo Lopez is making a strong case to open the season in the Marlins’ rotation, but manager Don Mattingly said this weekend that no decisions have been made as to who’ll round out the rotation behind Jose Urena and Dan Straily, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. Lopez tossed four perfect innings and picked up four punchouts in his most recent outing against a Nationals lineup featuring many regulars. He’s now allowed just one run on three hits and a walk with eight strikeouts in nine spring frames. Wei-Yin Chen’s contract — he’s owed $42MM over the next two seasons — makes him a likely candidate to get a long look, while other rotation hopefuls include Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Richards and southpaw Caleb Smith.

Vidal Nuno Has Opt-Out Chances In Contract

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  • Left-hander Vidal Nuno’s minor league contract with the Nationals includes opt-out chances on March 27 and June 15, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports. Thanks in part to the Nationals’ release of fellow lefty Sammy Solis on Saturday, Nuno’s chances of cracking their 25-man roster by one of those dates have seemingly improved, Dougherty observes. Further, the 31-year-old Nuno has gained an important fan in manager Dave Martinez, who said Saturday: “From what I’ve seen, he’s got a multitude of pitches that he can get people out with. I mean lefties, righties, he’s not afraid of pitching in. I like him. His presence on the mound is good. He attacks the strike zone. I really like what I see so far.”

Nationals Release Sammy Solis

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Per a team release, the Nationals have released LHP Sammy Solis unconditionally.

Solis, 30, had spent the entirety of his 9-year professional career with the organization, appearing in 141 games (all in relief) at the MLB level. In 39 1/3 IP last season, where he was deployed mostly as a lefty specialist, Solis’s ugly 6.41 ERA was at least somewhat offset by an encouraging 10.07 K/9 and 45% grounder rate.

Despite his traditional left-handed role in the Nats’ pen, Solis has actually been more effective against right-handers over the course of his career, notching a combined .306 wOBA against, compared to .329 vs same-side bats. Beset for much of his big-league time by persistent command issues, Solis’s also been a victim of the recent homer surge around the game, with over 17% of his fly balls coming to rest in the seats since the start of 2017.

After avoiding arbitration by signing a one-year, $850K pact with the team in November, Solis was set to compete for the second-lefty role in the Washington pen with longtime teammate Matt Grace. With the release, the Nats owe the lefty just one-sixth of his agreed-upon salary for 2019.

Nationals Reportedly Not Pursuing Craig Kimbrel

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The Nationals and Braves “are not ’in’ on” free agent closer Craig Kimbrel, according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic (via Twitter). Whether that’s a truly definitive statement on those two clubs’ engagement with Kimbrel isn’t clear; each has been linked (his former team in Atlanta, especially) over the course of the winter and would surely be interested at the right price. The arms race in the NL East has continued all offseason long and has not really halted with the start of Spring Training. Financial considerations make several teams in the division conceivable suitors for Kimbrel, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams examined in depth.

Kendrick Out 10 To 12 Days With Hamstring Strain

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  • The Nationals will be without infielder/outfielder Howie Kendrick for “at least” 10 to 12 days as he nurses a hamstring strain, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets. Kendrick underwent an MRI earlier this week to evaluate the status of his hamstring after he suffered an injury during a game last weekend. Opening Day is less than three weeks away, so the strain could potentially jeopardize his readiness.

Kendrick Possibly Headed For MRI Following Hamstring Injury

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  • Nationals infielder/outfielder Howie Kendrick could be headed for an MRI after exiting this morning’s Grapefruit League game with a hamstring strain, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. The 35-year-old is hoping for a bounceback season in terms of health after missing the majority of the 2018 campaign due to a ruptured Achilles tendon. Kendrick was excellent in the 40 games he played last year, hitting .303/.331/.474 through 160 plate appearances. He’ll back up all around the infield and in the outfield corners this season, health permitting, as he plays out the second season of a two-year, $7MM contract in D.C.

Nationals Ownership Hesitant To Pass Luxury Tax Threshold

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Recent reports have hinted at a possible connection between the Nationals and free agent closer Craig Kimbrel, though luxury tax concerns could prevent a signing from taking place.  According to both MASNsports.com’s Pete Kerzel and MLB.com’s Jamal Collier, the team’s ownership isn’t at this point willing to exceed the $206MM luxury tax threshold, in an attempt to reset the Nats’ tax penalty to zero after paying the Competitive Balance Tax in each of the previous two seasons.

As per Roster Resource, the Nats’ projected luxury tax payroll sits at just under $201.5MM for 2019.  This leaves the club with a bit of breathing room for a potential trade deadline addition, as Collier notes, but not much else.  Barring a trade of another high-salaried player, there certainly isn’t room to fit Kimbrel into the mix.

It’s hard to accuse the Nationals of being unwilling to spend when the team has already been one of the offseason’s bigger spenders.  Patrick Corbin’s six-year, $140MM deal was the headline piece, though the Nats also doled out significant shorter-term expenditures on Brian Dozier, Anibal Sanchez, Kurt Suzuki, and Trevor Rosenthal, while also adding Yan Gomes in a trade from Cleveland.  Some of these moves were afforded due to money coming off the books, of course, most notably the expiring contracts of Bryce Harper and Matt Wieters, plus Tanner Roark was traded to the Reds.  Plus, the Nats have doled out plenty of large deals in the past, and may do so again if the club is able to extend Anthony Rendon.

Going forward, Washington has at least $110MM in luxury tax payroll accounted for in 2020.  Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton, Sean Doolittle, and Gomes can all be retained through club options, and Zimmerman is the only one that looks like a solid bet to be declined.  Rosenthal has a vesting option for 2020, while Rendon and Dozier will be free agents outright.  Since some more roster needs will surely emerge over the coming year and into next season, Nationals ownership is surely wary of committing to another big deal for Kimbrel that would make it hard for the team to get under the tax threshold again (which will slightly rise to $208MM next season).

This all being said, it should be noted that even in adding Kimbrel, the Nationals would still very likely be in the first bracket of luxury tax overage, meaning they’d stay under the $226MM mark.  This means Washington would avoid a further surtax and only be charged a tax rate of 50% for every dollar they spend over $206MM.

As both Collier and Kerzel observe, the actual amount of money the Nationals would have to surrender in tax payments isn’t unreasonable.  Let’s suppose the Nats ended the season with a $225MM luxury tax payroll to barely stay within that first tax bracket.  For that $19MM in overages, they would then owe $9.5MM in taxes — not an insignificant amount of money, but hardly onerous for a big-market team with World Series aspirations.  As Collier puts it in a rhetorical question, “Would you rather win 93 games, the division and have paid the penalty or win 88, miss the postseason and avoid it? To me, it’s a no-brainer, but it’s a hurdle they [the Nationals] have not been willing to clear.”

It isn’t a guarantee, of course, that Kimbrel’s addition would automatically put Washington over the top in a very competitive division.  But this hesitation on the part of team ownership is particularly odd considering that the Nats have already topped the tax level in both 2017 and 2018.  It also calls into question of why, if a third straight season in excess of the tax was such a big issue for ownership, the Nationals didn’t make a bigger push to unload salary last summer.  D.C. waited until they were entirely out of the race in late August to begin trading players (i.e. Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Madson, and Matt Adams), though it already looked like they had little shot at either the NL East title or even a wild-card slot.  The Nats ended up topping last year’s CBT threshold by only $8MM, even dealing some of those same players earlier would’ve saved the team a few more weeks’ of salaries.

Nationals Interested In Craig Kimbrel

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11:07pm: Kimbrel to the Nats is “further down the road” than reports have indicated, ESPN’s Keith Law tweets.

3:06pm: Though even the biggest-spending MLB franchises routinely bow out of a tit for tat vis-á-vis high-impact rival moves, it appears the Nationals, who Thursday lost star OF Bryce Harper to the hard-charging Phillies, may be poised to strike the next blow. The team has “maintained interest” in free agent reliever Craig Kimbrel, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who notes that the club “might be willing” to dish out a long-term deal for the righty.

It’s about time for the noise to crank on the market for the star closer, who’s been listening to mostly muffled sounds for months now. Per Rosenthal, the Braves are also “exploring” Kimbrel, 31 in May, but still holding firm to the short-term pact they’ve long desired. Offers and specified durations and dollar amounts are still in the dark, but the urgency to a strike a deal with the flamethrower, especially for teams in the stacked NL East, has now heightened substantially.

The Nationals, per Roster Resource, sit just $4.5MM below the $206MM luxury-tax threshold – which, if eclipsed by the team for the third consecutive season, would require them to pay a 50% tax on every dollar they spend over the limit – and would almost certainly lose their third- and sixth-round draft picks if they were to sign Kimbrel (the team already lost its second- and fifth-rounders after November’s signing of Patrick Corbin). Still, none of it seems an impediment – the club is now just a win or so behind the Phillies in most projected models, and could immediately close the gap with the inking of Kimbrel, who’d almost certainly represent a 1.5-2 win upgrade over any of the gaggle of green arms competing for jobs at the back end of the Nats’ bullpen.

Kimbrel’s 2018 season was arguably his worst – he set career-lows in HR/9 and GB% and walked 4.48 men per nine – but still a top-10 reliever season in the more-difficult American League. Three times the righty has bettered the 3-win mark for a reliever, a staggering stat indeed, and his 19.0 career fWAR already ranks fifth all-time in the three-out era of the modern closer.

The back end of the Nats pen, which features an again-dominant Sean Doolittle at its core, is thin: Trevor Rosenthal returns from Tommy John and is a major question mark, Koda Glover is again hampered by arm issues, and Kyle Barraclough, shipped early on to Washington for international bonus pool money, can’t be counted on to throw strikes. The team doesn’t feature a potential fast-riser, like Philly did last season with Seranthony Dominguez, and the remainder of the bargain bullpen pickups don’t strike fear in any hearts. Kimbrel, though, has, and does, and would.

MLBTR Poll: Does Arenado Deal Impact Extensions For Goldschmidt, Rendon?

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Though it took longer than expected, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper got their big deals – Machado for a decade, Harper for a baker’s dozen. In the time between their signings, next winter’s top free agent got his big payday as well – the Rockies locked up Nolan Arenado for 8 years, $260MM. Free agency’s treatment of this winter’s big fish was always going to somewhat inform Arenado’s path, but the ramifications of all three superstars having planted their respective flags extends beyond San Diego, Philadelphia, and Colorado.

With Arenado’s abdication of his position atop 2019’s free agent class, Paul Goldschmidt inherits the throne. The Cardinals are now pressed with increased urgency to sign their new first baseman to an extension, writes Ben Frederickson of the St.Louis Post-Dispatch. Though Machado and Harper were both presumptive fits on the Cardinals roster, they never really approached the bidder’s circle. Of course, as Frederickson points out, signing top free agents hasn’t been the Cardinal modus operandi. What is very much in their DNA is trading for superstars and extending (or re-signing) them, two prime examples being Mark McGwire in 1997 and Matt Holliday in 2009.

Frederickson urges the Cards to dive headlong into their partnership with Goldy, who might prove amenable to a long-term guarantee after watching Machado, Harper, and so many others tread water in free agency. An extension won’t come cheap for one of the more more accomplished hitters of his generation, who boasts an absurd 144 career wRC+, six consecutive All-Star games, four Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, plus two silver medals and a bronze for MVP. And yet, there’s no ignoring the uncertainty created these past two frigid winters.

Still, the top free agents continue to make bank, and the same should be true for Goldschmidt. It was only a year ago this time that Scott Boras coaxed the Padres into giving Eric Hosmer, a far inferior player, $144MM over eight years. Frederickson cites his Post-Dispatch colleague Derrick Goold in putting forth five years, $150MM ($30MM AAV) as a potential framework for a Goldschmidt extension.

The biggest differentiator between the Machado/Harper/Hosmer trio and Goldschmidt, of course, is age. The ISE Baseball client can claim one of the most well-rounded skill sets in the league – but he will be entering his age-32 season as a free agent. Still, the smart play for the Cardinals here, Frederickson suggests, is locking in the .297/.398/.532 career hitter as soon as possible he is willing.

The Nationals have a similar conundrum on their hands with Scott Boras client Anthony Rendon. For most Boras clients, there would be little hope for an extension this close to free agency, but Boras and the Nationals have made this work before – just not in every case. The two sides have remained in contact about a Rendon extension for most of the last year, per MLB.com’s Jamal Collier. Similarly to Goldschmidt, the Arenado signing has an effect here, as Rendon jumps to the top spot among free agent third basemen.

Rendon’s been a foundational piece throughout the Harper/Strasburg era in DC, batting .285/.361/.469 over six seasons in DC. He creates 23% more runs than average in that span, and he’s been even more impressive lately with a 141 wRC+ in 2017 and 140 wRC+ last year. Defensively he’s as sure-handed as they come, if not quite with Arenado’s flash. If it weren’t for Arenado’s vice-grip on the gold glove award, Rendon would likely have some hardware of his own.

Take a stacked positional class that includes Arenado, Kris Bryant, Matt Carpenter, Justin Turner, Eugenio Suarez, add to it superstar contemporaries in Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Harper, plus a flourishing next generation of Nats stars like Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto – and Rendon’s excellence gets lost in the shuffle. Epitomizing Rendon’s place in the current canon is this: he has zero All-Star appearances despite three top-12 finishes in MVP voting. He did, however, win a Silver Slugger in 2014 and the NL Comeback Player of the Year award in 2016.

Rendon, who turns 29 in June, is set to earn $18.8MM in 2019, his last year before hitting the open market. With Arenado securing a $32.5MM AAV, what is Rendon’s value? He’s a year older and less decorated than Arenado, but Rendon’s 25.8 career fWAR compares favorably to Arenado’s 25.3 fWAR. Turning to a rate metric, Arenado’s put forth a 127 OPS+ over the past five seasons versus Rendon’s 122 OPS+ in the same span. Still, Arenado is pretty much universally regarded as the superior player.

Given their ages, neither Goldschmidt nor Rendon are likely to surpass Arenado’s contract in terms of length, but they could reach higher AAVs if their incumbent clubs take Frederickson’s advice: “Pour on the money. Scale back the years.” 

Goldschmidt poll link for app users. 

Rendon poll link for app users.

 

More On Bryce Harper: Werth, Phillies, Nats Farewell, New Teammates

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Former National and Phillie Jayson Werth was unsurprised to hear about his former teammate’s decision to sign in Philadelphia, per Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Werth knows the trek up I-95 well, as he went the opposite direction in the winter before 2011 when he ended a four-year run in Philly by joining a DC club that had drafted Harper the June prior. Werth’s perspective is unique, obviously, because of his relationship to mentee Bryce Harper, but Werth said he and Harper never discussed free agency or Philadelphia, despite speaking a couple of times over the winter. Werth likes the deal for both sides,“You’re getting a young Bryce Harper for his whole career,” says Werth. “You’re going to get him through tons of prime years. Compared with some of the other deals that are out there, it’s fair in the market for both parties. If you’re Bryce, I think you love the years. If you’re Philadelphia, you probably love the price.” Werth fans will appreciate this update from his post-playing days, which is going about as one might expect: he has his hands full with organic farming, snowboarding, and the launching of his own hemp processing business in Illinois. Let’s check in on a couple other Harper notes…

  • Reuben Frank of NBC Sports Philadelphia takes a look at the ten free agents in Philly history who made the biggest splash upon signing. Current 76ers GM Elton Brand makes the list, as does Werth’s former teammate Cliff Lee and MLB’s hit king Pete Rose. 
  • The Nationals bid Harper a fond farewell from their Twitter account in advance of his introduction in Philly. There does not appear to be quite the level of heartbreak one might expect from fans in Washington, perhaps due to Harper’s early flirtations with the Yankees, or the protracted nature of his departure, or the fact that his national fame predates his Nats career. Of course, the suppression of hurt feelings is a time-tested defense mechanism after a breakup, though the development of Juan Soto and Victor Robles certainly helps soften the blow. Harper leaves the Nationals second to only Ryan Zimmerman in many offensive categories since the club moved to Washington, including home runs, walks, runs, RBIs, extra-base hits and total bases. Add in the organization’s history in Montreal and Harper’s .900 OPS ranks second all-time, bested only by Vladimir Guerrero’s .978 OPS with the Expos.
  • Harper’s future teammates, meanwhile, are excited about the expectations Harper brings to the club, per MLB.com’s Richard Justice. Already many of the comments from Phillies players like Rhys Hoskins and Andrew McCutchen center on this team’s potential as a World Series contender. “[Harper] wants to be a Phillie for the rest of his career, pretty much. I get goosebumps thinking about it,” says Jake Arrieta, a guy who knows something about what it takes to win a World Series. “I doubt I’ll play for another 13 years, but I would love to be here for 13 years with him.” It’s safe to say Arrieta will need to kick his pilates routine into high gear if he’s to stick around that long, as he will turn 45 in March of the final year of Harper’s deal.
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