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9 NL Central Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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Nobody knows when the 2020 Major League Baseball season will begin, but we can still look forward to its start. With that in mind, we’ll continue our series on potential bounce-back players from each division, this time focusing on notable National League Central pitchers whose production fell off from 2018 to ’19.

Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Cubs:

Undoubtedly among the greatest relief pitchers in baseball history, Kimbrel’s numbers careened off a cliff in his first season as a Cub. In fairness, though, Kimbrel didn’t have a normal offseason before finally joining the Cubs on a three-year, $43MM contract. The 31-year-old flamethrower went without a deal until the first week June, and he never really got on track after debuting later that month. Kimbrel battled elbow issues and threw just 20 2/3 innings, over which he allowed 15 earned runs on 21 hits (including a whopping nine home runs) and 12 walks. Although Kimbrel did strike out 30 hitters and continue to throw upward of 96 mph, it wasn’t enough to overcome the other problems. Considering what the Cubs have invested in him, not to mention the losses their bullpen suffered in free agency, it’s a must for him to return to form this year.

Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Cubs:

Jeffress was a lights-out part of the Brewers’ bullpen in 2018, but last season represented an enormous step backward. In fact, it went so badly for Jeffress that the Brewers – then vying for a playoff spot – released him during the first week of September. Jeffress wound up with a ghastly 5.02 ERA in 52 innings and saw his typical fastball go from 95.3 mph in 2018 to 93.8. He also lost 4 percent on his swinging-strike rate, almost 10 percent on his strikeout rate, and 8 percent on his groundball rate. Consequently, he was only able to secure an $850K guarantee in free agency.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Reds:

Bauer went from one of the absolute best pitchers in the sport two years ago to someone whom the opposition shelled after the Reds acquired him from the Indians at last summer’s trade deadline. The 29-year-old kept throwing hard, averaging about 95 mph on his fastball, but yielded 57 hits (including 12 home runs) en route to a 6.39 ERA in 56 1/3 innings as a Red. Between the two teams, his combined 4.48 ERA and 4.34 FIP were each more than two runs worse than the production he logged in 2018. Bauer also experienced an almost 7 percent fall in groundball rate, and he wasn’t any kind of Statcast hero, ranking near the middle of the pack in multiple important categories.

Pedro Strop, RHP, Reds:

Strop, 34, had several terrific years with the Cubs, but last season wasn’t one of them. His average fastball dropped by 1.5 mph (93.6), his walk rate spiked to its highest level since 2012 (4.32 BB/9) and he gave up more home runs than ever (1.3 per nine). All of those factors helped lead to career-worst run prevention totals for Strop (4.97 ERA/4.53 FIP), which came at a less-than-ideal time for the pending free agent. Strop’s subpar output last year stopped him from cashing in on the open market, but if he can rebound, the Reds will have a bargain on their hands at $1.825MM.

Chris Archer, RHP, Pirates:

MLBTR’s Steve Adams just took a more in-depth dive into the surprising struggles Archer has gone through as a Pirate. The former Rays standout has been a shell of himself since Pittsburgh acquired him from Tampa Bay in a July 2018 trade that looks incredibly lopsided in the Rays’ favor. But not all hope is lost for Archer, who – at the Pirates’ behest – grew too reliant on a sinking fastball that the opposition hammered. Archer bagged the pitch last summer and proceeded to post far better numbers during the second half of the season than he did before then, making the 5.19 ERA/5.02 FIP, 4.14 BB/9, 1.88 HR/9 and 36.3 percent groundball rate he put up over 119 2/3 innings look somewhat deceiving.

Derek Holland, LHP, Pirates:

Holland resurrected his career two years ago in San Francisco, only to fall apart between the Giants and Cubs last season. While Holland made 30 starts in 2018, he had such a rough time a year ago that he spent most of it in the bullpen, where he amassed 43 of 51 appearances. The 33-year-old limped to a 6.10 ERA/6.08 FIP with 8.75 K/9, 4.8 BB/9 and 2.13 HR/9, forcing him to settle for a minor league contract with Pittsburgh in the offseason.

Andrew Miller, LHP, Cardinals:

The first season as a Cardinal didn’t go well for Miller, whom they signed to a two-year, $25MM pact beforehand. The majority of his numbers, including a 4.45 ERA/5.19 FIP in 54 2/3 innings, went the wrong way. Miller, who barely walked more than one hitter per nine during his career-best season back in 2016, issued almost four and a half free passes last season. Moreover, he endured a 10.5 percent dip in groundball rate from 2018 and saw his home run-to-fly ball rate skyrocket to 21.6 percent. The 34-year-old has since dealt with some health troubles this spring, though the latest update on his status was encouraging.

Corbin Burnes, RHP, Brewers:

Burnes had a promising debut from Milwaukee’s bullpen in 2018. However, the spin rate darling’s propensity for surrendering homers proved to be his undoing last season. Burnes, 25, gave them up on 38.6 percent of fly balls, leading to an awful 8.82 ERA/6.09 FIP in 49 innings and canceling out a strong strikeout rate of 12.86 per nine and a borderline elite swinging-strike percentage of 17.2.

Corey Knebel, RHP, Brewers:

Knebel’s on the list for injury reasons, not ones related to performance. He was a huge piece of the Brewers’ relief corps from 2017-18, but Tommy John surgery kept him off the mound a season ago. Knebel, who underwent the procedure just under 12 months ago, had been lining up for an early May return before the game shut down, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. So, the longer baseball’s hiatus last, the better Knebel’s odds are of returning to his past role as a Brewers contributor over a full season.

10 NL Central Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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Our series focusing on notable players looking for bounce-back seasons in 2020 rolls on with the National League Central. We’ll start with 10 of the division’s hitters who hope to return to form this year…

Joey Votto, 1B, Reds:

Votto is one of the greatest hitters who has ever lived, so it was rather surprising – even at the age of 35 – to see him turn in such pedestrian numbers in 2019. He ended up with what was essentially a league-average line of .261/.357/.411 with 15 home runs in 608 plate appearances, mustering just 0.7 fWAR during that span. Compared to 2018, the ever-patient Votto saw his walk rate fall by almost 5 percent, his out-of-zone swing rate jump by nearly 5 percent and his strikeout rate climb by 4 percent. Regarding his performance last year, Votto admitted in February (via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com): “It’s the worst season I’ve had in my career, pretty clearly. I don’t think it’s close. Everything went the wrong way.” Now, the six-time All-Star and former MVP is “motivated” to turn things around as part of what could be the Reds’ first contending team in several years.

Lorenzo Cain, CF, Brewers:

Cain joined Votto in logging uncharacteristically mediocre numbers last season. But Cain, a 5.7-fWAR player as recently as 2018, was clearly hampered by a right thumb injury. That issue played a part in limiting the 33-year-old to 1.5 fWAR and a .260/.325/.372 line across 623 trips to the plate. From 2018-19, his walk rate fell by 3.5 percent, his wRC+ plummeted by 41 points (124 to 83) and he stole 12 fewer bases (30 to 18).

Justin Smoak, 1B, Brewers:

One of the Brewers’ offseason free-agent pickups, Smoak is coming off a year in which he matched Votto in wRC+. That’s normally a good thing, but at 101, that wasn’t the case last season. In his final campaign with the Blue Jays, the switch-hitting Smoak only put together a .208/.342/.406 line in his 500 PA. But his hard-hit rate increased by almost 9 percent, according to FanGraphs, and Statcast was a fan of his work. Notably, the 33-year-old’s expected weighted on-base average (.366) far outpaced his real wOBA (.323).

Jedd Gyorko, INF, Brewers:

Another of Milwaukee’s offseason signings, Gyorko is on the heels of a brutal and injury-wrecked 2019 spent with the Cardinals and Dodgers. He accounted for minus-0.7 fWAR in just 101 PA, thanks in large part to an unsightly .174/.248/.250 line. Before that, Gyorko totaled three straight seasons of above-average offensive production. For an affordable $2MM, Milwaukee’s hoping a healthy version of the 31-year-old will return to his 2016-18 days.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals:

There was nothing wrong with Goldschmidt’s output in 2019, per se; it just didn’t match up to the brilliance we’ve come to expect from him. A middling start to the six-time All-Star’s first season as a Cardinal tamped down his overall numbers, helping limit him to a .260/.346/.476 showing and 2.9 fWAR (though he did hit 34 home runs). Remember, Goldschmidt entered the year as a lifetime .297/.398/.532 hitter with six consecutive seasons of between 4.0 and 7.2 fWAR.

Matt Carpenter, 3B, Cardinals:

Carpenter, like Goldschmidt, was a star in the several seasons preceding 2019. But last year went awry for Carpenter, who – for the first time in his career – failed to record even average offensive production. The 34-year-old finished the season as a .226/.334/.392 hitter in 492 PA, notching a career-worst 1.2 fWAR in the process. Compared to 2018, Carpenter’s walk and strikeout rates went in the wrong direction by about 3 percent apiece, his ISO plummeted by a stunning 100 points, and his hard-hit percentage fell by eight points.

Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals:

The Cardinals are currently working to extend the 37-year-old Molina, one of the best players in franchise history, though the potential Hall of Famer wasn’t his usual self in 2019. He produced his lowest fWAR (1.2) since 2006 and batted a powerless .270/.312/.399 in 452 PA. On the other side, Molina’s caught-stealing rate went down by a few points to 27 percent (still a bit better than average), and his pitch-framing output also dropped.

Harrison Bader, CF, Cardinals:

With this many Cardinals on the list, it’s a wonder they took the division last season. Anyhow, Bader was a major contributor to the team in 2018 – his first full season – but couldn’t come close to replicating that performance in ’19. His fWAR was cut in half by 50 percent (3.6 to 1.8), largely because of a disappointing .205/.314/.366 line over 406 trips to the plate. A 4 percent increase in strikeout rate was among the culprits. To Bader’s credit, though, he did slash his soft-contact rate and continue to thrive in the outfield, where he tallied 14 Defensive Runs Saved and a 12.9 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Gregory Polanco, OF, Pirates:

It would be fair to give Polanco a mulligan for his poor year, as he underwent left shoulder surgery in September 2018 and dealt with problems in that area throughout last season. He only appeared in 42 games and amassed 167 PA, batting .242/.301/.425.

Daniel Descalso, INF, Cubs:

The typically light-hitting Descalso was so effective as a Diamondback in 2018 that it convinced the Cubs to give him a two-year, $5MM contract heading into last season. That decision has not paid off at all so far. The 33-year-old Descalso’s initial season in Chicago couldn’t have gone much worse, as he batted .173/.241/.250 over 194 PA and accounted for minus-0.8 fWAR. Among 411 hitters who racked up at least 150 PA, Descalso ranked seventh worst in wRC+ (42) and 14th from the bottom in ISO (.077). If you’re skeptical that he’ll turn back into a decent contributor this year, you’re not alone, but there’s really nowhere to go but up.

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Cubs?

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It’s no secret that it was  a quiet winter for the Cubs, a team coming off a 2019 collapse and a disappointing 84 wins. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently took a deep dive into the Cubs’ unpopular offseason, in which they spent a meager $3.5MM on major league free agents and didn’t make any earth-shattering trades.

There was some expectation the Cubs would deal at least one high-profile player (third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, for instance), but having found no offers to their liking, they seem prepared to bring back a roster somewhat similar to last year’s. That is, minus a handful of notable players – Nick Castellanos, Cole Hamels, Steve Cishek and Brandon Kintzler – who performed well for Chicago in 2019 and then exited in free agency.

Despite those losses, there is still a case that the Cubs are more talented than your average club. Bryant, shortstop Javier Baez, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, catcher Willson Contreras and left fielder Kyle Schwarber are still around to drive their position player group. That unit finished top 10 in the majors in runs and fWAR last year (though Castellanos’ second-half tear contributed to both figures).

As with the loss of Castellanos, Hamels’ departure seems likely to hurt. Although injuries hampered Hamels in his last season as a Cub, he still racked up 141 2/3 innings of solid production (3.81 ERA). They’d love that this year from the beleaguered Tyler Chatwood or some other fifth starter (Alec Mills? Jharel Cotton? Adbert Alzolay?), but it’s tough to bet on it happening. The good news is that the club’s top four – Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish, Jon Lester and Jose Quintana – should continue to at least post decent numbers. The same can’t really be said of the team’s bullpen, however. The unit received horrid production from the normally great Craig Kimbrel a year ago and, despite waving goodbye to Cishek and Kintzler (among others), didn’t do anything of significance to augment its relief corps in the winter.

Fortunately for the Cubs, the National League Central looks as if it’ll be almost anyone’s to win in 2020. The Pirates have almost no shot to contend for the crown, granted, though it could be a four-way race with the Cubs, Brewers and the reigning champion Cardinals vying against the much-improved Reds. If we’re to take this year’s PECOTA projections at face value, the Cubs will fall shy just of an NL Central title en route to 84-85 wins, yet they will earn a wild-card spot. But how do you feel about their chances under rookie manager David Ross? Do you expect a return to contention?

(Poll link for app users)

How many Cubs wins do you expect?
86-89 35.66% (4,445 votes)
80-85 33.25% (4,145 votes)
90-95 19.18% (2,391 votes)
Fewer than 80 8.46% (1,055 votes)
More than 95 3.44% (429 votes)
Total Votes: 12,465

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Lorenzen, Chatwood

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The Pirates were “behind the times” in their approach to developing pitchers under the previous front-office/coaching regime, right-hander Tyler Glasnow opines in a fascinating interview with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Glasnow details the manner in which the Pirates emphasized pitching down and inside even as the rest of the league evolved to attacking the top of the strike zone with four-seamers and ramping up the usage of breaking balls. The right-hander calls the Pirates’ approach “a good strategy for [2013-15]” but an outdated one in the current era of data-driven approaches to pitching and game-planning. Glasnow explains how he began working at the top of the strike zone on his own toward the end of his time as a Pirate — he was never approached by the club about doing so — and that was the first thing the Rays encouraged him to do following the trade. The interview is rife with interesting (and, if you’re a Pirates fan, frustrating) quotes from Glasnow and is well worth a full look regardless of which team you follow.

Taking a look elsewhere in the division…

  • The “two-way player” criteria established by Major League Baseball within this winter’s slate of rule changes puts National League clubs at a disadvantage, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required). The rules, which stipulate that a pitcher who wishes to gain two-way designation must start 20 games as a position player (with three plate appearances per start), appear to have been written with Shohei Ohtani in mind (and perhaps Brendan McKay) but don’t allow for someone like the Reds’ Michael Lorenzen to easily attain that status. Lorenzen played 29 games in center last season, including six starts. In two of those instances, he played every inning of an extra-inning game in the outfield, and in another he came in to throw two innings of relief before returning to center. Lorenzen called the criteria “obnoxious” in chatting with Rosenthal, who notes that the Reds are among the teams that have approached the league about the issue. Over the past two seasons, Lorenzen has batted .241/.302/.468 with five home runs in 87 plate appearances. He logged 89 innings in center field last season after serving as a frequent pinch-hitter a year prior in 2018.
  • Cubs skipper David Ross has at least considered utilizing righty Tyler Chatwood as a multi-inning reliever, he tells Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Ross still calls Chatwood the favorite for the fifth slot in the rotation, but he also points to Chatwood hitting 99 mph out of the bullpen and the fact that he pitched in every inning while functioning in various roles last season. Ross likens Chatwood to Kenta Maeda, suggesting that he could function as a starter for much of the season before shifting to a multi-inning relief option late in the year and potentially into the postseason. If Chatwood once again struggles as a starter early in the season, it seems likely the organization will shift him back into that role and look to alternative options in the rotation.

NL Notes: Castellanos, Cubs, Chatwood, Mills, Nats, Ross, Voth

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Nicholas Castellanos spoke eloquently about his experience dealing with the Cubs this offseason – which is to say, he experience not dealing with them. And yet, the Cincinnati Red appears to harbor no ill will towards the Cubs. Instead, he offered nuanced insight and thoughtful considerations about the challenges facing ownership, per The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. Said Castellanos, “I don’t know the intricacies of owning a team. The only thing I can speak on when it comes to the Cubs is what a tremendous and incredible soul that organization has when it has life. The only thing I would care about if I owned the Cubs would be to give it as much life as possible. It’s hard, I don’t know what it’s like to own a business.” Polite and diplomatic as he may be, Castellanos does offer an implicit criticism of a Cubs organization that has exhibited, shall we say, less “life” than in years past. Though Castellanos seems to understand and accept why the Cubs made no contact with him after his exit interview, he did wonder broadly about the lack of interest from teams league-wide. Let’s check in on some fifth starter races..

  • Cubs’ manager David Ross gives Tyler Chatwood the lead in the race for the Cubs’ fifth starter role, tweets MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. Alec Mills is also a contender for the role, though whoever wins the spot on opening day is likely to keep it until performance dictates otherwise. Ross has no interest in modernizing his approach to the fifth starter role, preferring to let players earn a role in spring training and enter the season thusly, per Bastian. Mills is out of options, but he’s a heavy favorite to land a bullpen spot if he can’t unseat Chatwood for the rotation.
  • Joe Ross has pole position to break camp as the fifth starter for the World Champion Washington Nationals, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Austin Voth has pitched well enough to provide a legitimate challenge, but given that both players are likely to make the team, Ross has the track record to give him an edge. He also has the gaudy bullpen ERA to suggest he’s best utilized in the rotation. It’s fair to question the significance of rotation/bullpen splits, but few can boast a Jekyll-and-Hyde routine like Ross’ 2019. The 26-year-old put up an 11.17 ERA over 19 1/3 innings as a reliever, only to counter with a 3.02 ERA in 44 2/3 innings as a starter during the second half. Voth, meanwhile, is more of a late-bloomer at age-27, and he has yet to be tested in a relief capacity. Since making his professional debut in 2013, he has just 3 minor league relief appearances to go with 3 major league appearances out of the pen. Since the right-hander is out of options (as is Ross), Voth is likely to get his first real taste of bullpen life in 2020.

Camp Battles: Cubs’ Second Base Competition

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As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes detailed earlier this week, the Cubs are coming off a rather quiet offseason. There were no earth-shattering trades, no significant free-agent signings. The high-payroll club doled out just $3.5MM in guaranteed contracts over the winter, though it did add at least a couple familiar names by way of the minor league market. One of those pickups, longtime Indian Jason Kipnis, is vying to begin the season as the Cubs’ starting second baseman. The position was a sore spot last year for a what was overall a disappointing Chicago team – one that received little from Ben Zobrist (who missed a sizable portion of the season because of a personal matter), Addison Russell and Daniel Descalso. The lone member of that trio still with the organization is Descalso, who’s competing with Kipnis and a couple others to become rookie manager Davis Ross’ Opening Day choice at the keystone. Here’s a rundown of the quartet that’s in the mix…

  • Jason Kipnis: He was a two-time All-Star in Cleveland during his heyday, but it has been a few years since Kipnis even came close to putting up average offensive production. The 32-year-old’s .245/.304/.410 line in 511 plate appearances in 2019 helped prevent him from scoring a guaranteed contract in his first trip to free agency. Kipnis was much better during the second half of the season, though, and the left-handed hitter was playable against right-handed pitchers. As someone who has regularly performed better versus righties than southpaws, he could wind up as part of a platoon for the Cubs.
  • Daniel Descalso: The normally light-hitting Descalso had a solid season with the Diamondbacks in 2018, thereby convincing the Cubs to give him a two-year, $5MM guarantee in the ensuing winter. Thus far, however, the deal has blown up in the team’s face. Descalso, 33, limped to a .173/.271/.250 line with just two home runs in 194 trips to the plate. Along the way, his ISO (.077) dropped off 121 points from the prior season, while his strikeout and walk rates also trended in the wrong direction.
  • David Bote: The versatile Bote, 26, recorded adequate numbers for the second straight year in 2019, slashing .257/.362/.422 with 11 homers and 1.5 fWAR in 356 PA. On paper, it may make sense to attempt a platoon between the right-handed Bote and Kipnis, but Bote actually posted far superior production versus same-handed pitchers than southpaws last season.
  • Nico Hoerner: The 22-year-old Hoerner debuted with the Cubs last September, at which point the recent first-round pick (No. 24 in 2018) was regarded as a top-50 prospect. Hoerner ultimately didn’t log great numbers in his initial taste of MLB action (.282/.305/.436), but it was just an 82-PA sample; furthermore, it was the first time Hoerner had even played above the Double-A ball, making it all the more understandable he didn’t light the league on fire in his initial try. Hoerner may end up as Chicago’s long-term solution at second, but if the club doesn’t think he’s ready yet, it’ll have the option of sending him to Triple-A Iowa for more seasoning and regular playing time.

Orioles Return Rule 5 Picks Brandon Bailey, Michael Rucker

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3:01pm: The O’s announced that both players have cleared waivers and been returned to their prior teams.

1:37pm: The Orioles have decided against carrying both of their Rule 5 selections from the December draft, GM Mike Elias told media members including Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun (via Twitter). The departures of righties Brandon Bailey and Michael Rucker will open two 40-man roster spots.

It isn’t yet entirely clear whether these two hurlers have cleared waivers. Every other team in baseball will have (or has had) a chance to step into the O’s Rule 5 rights. If nobody places a claim, then they’ll be offered back to their prior teams — where they will not lock up a big-league roster spot unless and until they’re added.

The 25-year-old Bailey came over from the Astros organization after a strong 2019 season in which he pitched to a 3.30 ERA over 92 2/3 innings at the Double-A level with 10.0 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9. He had been selected with the second overall pick in the Rule 5 draft. The Orioles could’ve utilized him as a swingman in the majors this year but evidently didn’t see enough upside to merit the effort.

As for Rucker, who’s also 25, he’d be heading back to the Cubs. Last year, he transitioned into a full-time reliever, throwing 79 2/3 upper-minors innings over 36 appearances. Rucker carried a 4.18 ERA with a healthy combination of 10.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 on the season. He also threw five scoreless innings over three appearances in camp, with three strikeouts and a pair of free passes.

Extension Notes: Baez, Minor, Realmuto

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Reports back in November indicated that the Cubs had initiated extension talks with star shortstop Javier Baez, but Baez himself said as recently as mid-February that talks on that front have been “up and down.” Asked about the potential of signing a long-term deal in the wake of this week’s seven-year extension for division rival Christian Yelich, Baez told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times that Yelich’s seven-year, $188.5MM extension “doesn’t have anything to do with mine.” Baez acknowledged that he and the Cubs are still “working on” a long-term deal, though there’s no indication that talks have gained significant momentum.

Cubs president of baseball ops Theo Epstein declined to discuss talks with Baez or any other player in detail, merely indicating that the Cubs have tried to sign several players long term. “It’s not worth talking about,” Epstein said of his team’s extension efforts. “If we can get it done, we will. If we can’t, then we’ll move forward. But players don’t have an obligation to sign.” Baez is earning $10MM in 2020 and will be arbitration-eligible one last time next winter before reaching free agency in the 2021-22 offseason.

Some more notes on potential extensions for high-end players…

  • Mike Minor has previously made his desire to sign an extension with the Rangers known, but the left-hander told Sam Blum of the Dallas Morning News that “nothing’s happened.” The 32-year-old said he’s not the type to “put a hard deadline kind of thing” on talks before immediately contradicting that statement (to an extent) by adding that he doesn’t want to discuss a new contract during the season. Getting a new deal done before Opening Day would be a “best case” scenario, per Minor, who pitched to a 3.59 ERA with 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.30 HR/9 and a 40 percent ground-ball rate in a career-high 208 1/3 innings with Texas in 2019. Minor is owed a $9.83MM salary in 2020 — the final season of a three-year, $28MM deal signed with Texas prior to the 2018 campaign. Minor figures to be one of the better arms available on next year’s market and was an honorable mention on the first edition of MLBTR’s 2020-21 Free Agent Power Rankings.
  • The Phillies continue to discuss an extension with free-agent-to-be J.T. Realmuto, writes Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. The desire to get a long-term deal worked out isn’t exactly a well-kept secret, as both sides have made their desire to continue the relationship beyond 2020 known. Zolecki reports that talks between the two sides are moving slowly at this point, however. Realmuto for the first time this spring publicly acknowledged that the two sides are indeed talking but wouldn’t specify beyond that, simply stating that there’s “no update” at this time. Realmuto landed second on the first edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings, wherein Tim Dierkes observed that the 29-year-old is one more strong season away from being the first free-agent catcher to ever sign a deal worth more than $100MM.

Kris Bryant Notes: Grievance, Free Agency, CBA

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Kris Bryant’s service-time grievance became one of the offseason’s longest-running subplots, both because of the unexpectedly lengthy amount of time it took for the final ruling to be announced, and because of the perception that this extended wait may have impacted the Cubs’ efforts to trade the former NL MVP.  Arbitrator Mark Irvings eventually ruled in favor of the Cubs, which kept Bryant under team control through the 2021 season rather than only the 2020 season, though the specific arguments behind Irvings’ decision weren’t known until Tuesday, when the Associated Press obtained a copy of Irvings’ 42-page ruling.

The Cubs kept Bryant in the minor leagues to begin the 2015 season, arguing that the then-prospect still had to work on his defense in preparation for his eventual MLB debut.  Bryant was called up on April 17, a day after he would have gathered enough service time to become a free agent after the 2020 season.  Instead, the Cubs gained a seventh year of control over Bryant, who earned a fourth arbitration year as a Super Two player but still couldn’t hit the open market until after the 2021 campaign.

It was widely expected that the Cubs would win the case, and indeed, Irvings ultimately felt “the [MLBPA] could not satisfy its burden of proving that the Cubs’ assignments of Bryant were done in bad faith to mask service time manipulation.”  Irvings cited Bryant’s three errors during Spring Training 2015 as plausible evidence that his glovework was a concern for the team, and the specific timing of Bryant’s call-up coincided with injuries to regular third basemen Tommy La Stella and Mike Olt earlier in the week.  Also, Irvings noted that Theo Epstein’s front offices in both Boston and Chicago didn’t place rookies on the Opening Day roster as a general rule, so it wasn’t as if keeping Bryant in the minors departed from Epstein’s established norm.

Irvings specified that his ruling applied only to Bryant’s case, and that “this decision does not address, the global issue of whether clubs have the right to manage service time to delay a player’s achievement of the service benchmarks for salary arbitration and free agent eligibility.”  Bryant’s grievance is the most high-profile instance of a player challenging the increasingly common practice of star prospects being kept in the minors for (unstated) service-time reasons, yet it isn’t likely that this practice will be formally dealt with in any way until the new Collective Bargaining Agreement is negotiated between the league and the MLBPA.

As one might expect, Bryant sees early-career status as one of the key issues of the coming CBA talks.  “I think we need to look at how early in your career you provide so much value to a team, and you’re a significantly huge bargain,” Bryant told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  “And then when it’s your turn to fight for your value, people only want to see what you’ve done recently.  I just feel like we should definitely change that structure where you’re paid earlier on, and are quicker to arbitration and free agency, stuff like that.  Certain things we should totally fight for.”

Bryant gave his take on a number of current topics surrounding the game during the Q&A, including his thoughts on the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, his positive feelings about the new three-batter minimum rule for relievers, and his more measured view of other proposals (i.e. an expanded playoff structure, automatically placing a runner at second base during extra innings).  While Epstein and Bryant recently had a meeting that left the third baseman feeling that he’ll remain with the Cubs at least through the 2020 season, he told Nightengale that was “over” worrying about trade speculation since “I don’t have any control over it, so what are you going to do?”

That said, it is perhaps telling that when asked about getting no-trade protection in his next contract, Bryant said, “I think that might be the most important thing to me.  It just gives you clarity in where you’ll be.  If you have that in your contract, you know the team’s 100% committed to you being there.  You’re their guy.  It’s never in your mind about being traded.  That’s definitely a very comforting feeling.”

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