Outfield Market Notes: Akiyama, Puig, Dickerson
Potential Japanese import Shogo Akiyama, 31, remains a popular target on the free agent market. Yesterday’s reports affirmed the Reds and Padres atop the list of pursuers. The long-time Seibu Lions centerfielder is said to have 3-year offers on the table, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Cubs and Diamondbacks have also consistently been linked to the left-handed hitter, while the Rays and Blue Jays have had reported interest at various times during the offseason.
The 45th-ranked free agent on our Top 50 Free Agents list, Akiyama is one of the only true centerfield options on the open market, and he carries enough bat to find a place near the top of a batting order. His on-base ability in particular is drawing teams to his door, per Heyman. He carries a career .301/.376/.454 line from 9 seasons in the NPB, with OBPs floating right around .400 over the past five seasons.
MLBTR’s Dylan A. Chase asked readers early in the offseason to predict which NPB import would collect the largest guarantee. Akiyama landed firmly between Yoshitomo Tsutsugo and Shun Yamaguchi. We now know Tsutsugo claimed $12MM from the Rays while Yamaguchi got $6.35MM from the Blue Jays. Both deals are for two seasons. So while it’s reasonable to expect Akiyama to come on a fairly reasonable contract, the dearth of centerfield options could drive the bidding beyond either deal’s total guarantee.
Elsewhere among outfielders, the Marlins remain interested in Yasiel Puig. The volatile Cuban outfielder would certainly entertain Floridians, even if the .267/.327/.458 line he put up for the Reds and Indians in 2019 isn’t necessarily awe-inspiring. He did technically produce at an above-average rate with a 101 wRC+.
The Marlins, however, seem to be leaning towards Corey Dickerson at the moment, per FNTSY Sports Radio’s Craig Mish (via Twitter). The Fish have outfield prospects knocking on the door (namely, Monte Harrison and Jesus Sanchez), as well as intriguing talent a little further away (JJ Bleday, Victor Victor Mesa, Kameron Misner) – but they continue to explore adding offensive talent for the near-term.
Reds, Padres Reportedly Leading Shogo Akiyama Bidding
DECEMBER 27, 7:42pm: Aside from the Reds and Padres, it’s “thought” that the Diamondbacks, Cubs and maybe even the Blue Jays still have interest in Akiyama, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.
6:55pm: The bidding is largely down to the Reds and Padres, according to a Sports Hochi report (Japanese language link; h/t Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker, on Twitter). It seems the expectation is that he’ll reach a decision before the new year.
5:50am: The Reds have a multi-year offer to Akiyama on the table and are the likeliest landing spot for the 31-year-old, per a Friday report from Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link).
DECEMBER 26: When he declared his intentions to come to the majors, Japanese center fielder Shogo Akiyama entered an interesting place on this winter’s market. With so few viable center fielders available, and no shortage of demand, he offered an intriguing new possibility.
Interest has been fairly robust from the outset for the long-time Seibu Lions standout. And the chatter — at least, in Japanese outlets — has increased of late after Yahoo Japan reported (Japanese language link) that the left-handed-hitting 31-year-old would reach a decision in late December. If Akiyama has settled on a contract, it’s not yet known. But there are a few new hints to chew on. And other recent developments have had an impact on his market.
Yahoo Japan (Japanese language link) cites the Padres as a leading new contender. While it’s tough to assess the merits of those reports, they’re each rather notable for the impact on the market at large. The Pads only just added a somewhat similar player in Trent Grisham; it’d seem a move on Akiyama might portend a trade of another left-handed-hitting outfielder. Plus, adding salary would increase the team’s desire to move some of the money owed Wil Myers.
Then again, Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link) labels the Reds the likeliest landing spot for Akiyama, citing the organization’s persistent interest. The possibilities are all the more interesting with regard to the Reds, who have seemingly been preparing to utilize Nick Senzel in center but could take any number of different directions upon adding Akiyama. There certainly could be implications for the club’s interest in right-handed-hitting corner bats such as Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna. With six left-handed-hitting outfielders on the 40-man, the Cincinnati club would at minimum have to do some roster maintenance.
The Cubs and Diamondbacks have long been known to have interest. But it’s worth wondering to what extent either club is a legitimate possibility at this stage. The Cubs are reportedly sifting through pocket change and don’t appear to have any salary-freeing swaps on the immediate horizon. And the Arizona organization just added Kole Calhoun, which gives the team two well-compensated, left-handed-hitting corner outfielders around switch-hitting center fielder Ketel Marte (although he could shift back to second base if Akiyama lands in Arizona).
Another team long known to have interest, the Rays, also made a significant new left-handed-hitting addition to its outfield mix. Fellow Japanese standout Yoshitomo Tsutsugo secured a relatively surprising two-year, $12MM deal (plus a $2.4MM release fee) with the Tampa Bay organization. To what extent the Rays are involved at the moment isn’t entirely clear. But the team reportedly remains interested in Akiyama, even with multiple other left-handed-hitting options — including regular center fielder Kevin Kiermaier — still on hand.
While there’s still quite a lot of uncertainty, the foregoing discussion does indicate the layers of intrigue at play. In all likelihood, an Akiyama signing will be preceded by and/or will trigger some potentially notable corresponding transactions.
Blue Jays To Name Shane Farrell Amateur Scouting Director
The Toronto Blue Jays are getting set to name Shane Farrell as their new amateur scouting director, per sources for Robert Murray (via Twitter), previously of The Athletic. Farrell has been the west coast crosschecker for the Chicago Cubs.
Chicago and Toronto both are undergoing behind the scenes makeovers this offseason, to varying degrees. Toronto is in need of new blood due to the departure of Ben Cherington to Pittsburgh. Chicago, meanwhile, has remade parts of their scouting and development departments, ostensibly driven by the stagnation of the team’s development pipeline.
Farrell’s departure from Chicago isn’t all that shocking after interviewing for and missing out on a VP of Scouting role that went to Dan Kantrovitz, a former assistant GM with the A’s. The Cubs also lost national crosschecker Sam Hughes to the Yankees this offseason, per The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma.
Farrell, of course, is the son of the well-known former Red Sox and Blue Jays manager John Farrell, currently a scout for the Reds. The Cubs still have one Farrell connection, as Shane’s brother Jeremy is an assistant director of baseball development with the organization, while the third Farrell brother, Luke Farrell, is a former Cubs farmhand, who made 9 quality appearances for the Rangers in 2019.
For the Blue Jays, Shane Farrell joins a crew with heavy connections to his father’s time in Cleveland, though don’t be fooled into thinking this is a nepotism hire. Farrell has a strong reputation of his own accord and has been seen as a “fast-riser” among those in the industry, per Sharma.
Central Notes: Reds, Miley, Cubs, Twins, Clippard
Wade Miley stood helplessly by as his Astros’ tenure crumbled behind a disastrous September. A rocky final month boiled over into his lone ALDS appearance, forcing Miley off the roster for the ALCS and World Series. The team supposed Miley was relying too much on his cutter and steering his changeup to the point of altering the arm action that makes the pitch effective. After the year was out, however, a former teammate reached out to alert Miley that glove position was tipping his pitches, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. That’s cold comfort for Astros’ fans, but those in Cincinnati can officially raise their expectations for the two-year, $15MM free agent signing. If the Miley that shows up to Great American Ballpark more closely resembles the guy who put up a 3.06 ERA through 156 innings prior to September (and if the offense rebounds), the Reds might finally live up to the dependable, high-quality performance the chamber of commerce had in mind when adopting the the nickname of the Blue Chip City.
- As much credit as Theo Epstein deserves for finally turning the Cubs into a winner, the blame falls at his feet as well for the current state of affairs. Something has clearly gone awry when the Cubs are so short of cash that they can’t even outbid the Brewers for low-cost free agents like lefty Alex Claudio, who signed for $1.75MM. The problem isn’t that the Cubs are cheap (they had the third-highest payroll last season), but Epstein hasn’t made the best use of their funds, per The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. With one of the highest budgets in baseball, Epstein ought to have enough resources to maintain a winner in Chicago – instead he’s bargain hunting for the second consecutive offseason.
- The Twins finally made good on a decade-long courtship of reliever Tyler Clippard when they signed him to a one-year, $2.75MM deal, per The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman. He’s long been successful in this league, thanks largely to a north-south approach that’s come into fashion in recent seasons: a high-spin rising fastball set up by a splitter and changeup that move the opposite direction. The arsenal induces soft, airborne contact, especially against lefties. Besides being a reverse splits guy, he is also the rare pitcher who can be relied upon to consistently produce below-average batting average on balls in play. His career .239 BABIP is second-lowest all-time, Gleeman notes, and he’s only once let that number rise above .300, the average mark league-wide.
Brandon Kintzler Drawing “Plenty Of Interest”
Brandon Kintzler credits a bounce-back campaign in 2019 to working with Tommy Hottovy to simplify his mechanics during Spring Training, he said on MLB Network Radio (audio link). After a strong season with the Cubs, Kintzler is drawing “plenty of interest” on the free agent market.
Kintzler, 35, worked through one of the worst campaigns of his career in 2018, especially struggling after coming to Chicago from the Nationals in a mid-season trade. He was knocked around for a 7.00 ERA across those 25 appearances in a Cubs’ uniform, giving up 13.5 H/9 and walking an unusually high 4.5 batters per nine innings.
The sinkerballer turned in around in 2019, however, becoming one of the Cubs most reliable relievers across 62 appearances (57 innings). He put up a career-high 1.7 bWAR and career-low 2.84 ERA, though a 3.56 FIP puts his turnaround closer to career norms enjoyed throughout previous tenures with the Brewers, Twins and Nationals.
Kintzler was particularly tough on lefties in 2019, holding them to a .163/.247/.275 line. Career splits paint Kintzler as more of an equal opportunist, though he’s done a nice job of limiting left-handed power throughout his career. The changeup is key against opposite-hand hitters, a pitch he went away from during his struggles in 2018. With simpler, repeatable mechanics in 2019, his feel for the pitch returned, and with it returned his effectiveness.
NL Notes: Donaldson, Braves, Cubs, Bryant, Pirates, Reds
Third baseman Josh Donaldson, the No. 1 free agent left on the board, continues to contemplate his future. The Nationals, Twins, Dodgers and Braves (with whom he thrived in 2019) look like the front-runners for his services. All things being equal, though, it appears Donaldson would prefer to stay in Atlanta. The “belief” is Donaldson’s camp has promised the Braves he’ll let them make a final offer before he signs anywhere else, David O’Brien of The Athletic reports (subscription link). The problem, as O’Brien notes, is that the Braves may not want to give Donaldson, 34, four guaranteed years. Meanwhile, Washington and Minnesota are reportedly open to doing so.
More from the National League…
- The Cubs’ Kris Bryant could be a trade target for Atlanta if it doesn’t re-sign Donaldson, though it’s still unclear how much more team control the former has left. Bryant filed a grievance over service time against the Cubs, whose decision to delay the now-star’s promotion in 2015 earned them an extra year of control. That grievance was heard back in October, and briefs were due Friday, but arbitrator Mark Irvings’ ruling won’t arrive until sometime after Jan. 1, Evan Drellich of The Athletic tweets. For now, Bryant’s under control for two more years, but that figure will drop to one if he unexpectedly wins his grievance. The 27-year-old has been featured in trade rumors, but at least until the league knows how much more control Bryant has, it’s highly unlikely he’ll go anywhere.
- Rookie Pirates manager Derek Shelton has chosen Tarrik Brock as his first base coach, according to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. This will be the second go-around as a major league 1B coach for Brock, who worked in that role for the Padres in 2016. He went on to serve as the Dodgers’ minor league outfield and baserunning coordinator from 2017-19. Now 45, Brock’s a former outfielder who saw brief MLB action in 2000 with the Cubs.
- The Reds hired Joe Mather as assistant hitting coach earlier this week, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. The 37-year-old Mather – who, like Brock, is an ex-outfielder – spent last season as the Diamondbacks’ minor league field and hitting coordinator. He’ll now work alongside new Reds hitting coach Alan Zinter.
Cubs Sign Ryan Tepera
The Cubs have struck a deal with reliever Ryan Tepera, as first reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It comes with a 40-man roster spot, though Tepera will play on a split arrangement. He’ll earn at a $900K rate in the majors and $300K in the minors.
Tepera, 32, was an effective inning for a nice stretch for the Blue Jays. But he ran into trouble in 2019, when he managed only 21 2/3 innings of 4.98 ERA ball. Long capable of striking out about a batter per inning, Tepera managed a meager 5.8 K/9 in the just-completed campaign. And he succumbed to the long ball malaise that afflicted so many other pitchers, coughing up five in 21 2/3 innings.
It’s a nice opportunity for the Cubs to seek value, though whether Tepera can bounce back may depend upon the question whether he can move past the elbow issues that plagued him in 2019. Tepera lost around 1.5 mph in average fastball velocity as compared to his ’18 numbers, with opposing hitters making contact on pitches in the zone at a 91.1% rate despite typically sitting in the low-eighties. More promisingly, Tepera was still able to generate a 12.6% swinging-strike rate and induce batters to chase on 37.3% of his pitches out of the zone.
Steven Souza Jr. Reportedly Recovered From Knee Surgery, Generating Interest
Former Rays and Diamondbacks outfielder Steven Souza Jr. is running at 100 percent and drawing interest from a handful of teams as he looks to bounce back from a devastating knee injury, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. Souza underwent surgery in April after tearing the ACL, LCL, PCL and posterolateral capsule in his left knee in a gruesome and gut-wrenching injury at home plate at the end of Spring Training. Per Morosi, the Rays, Giants, Cubs and Rangers are among the teams who’ve shown interest.
That report paints a fair bit of overlap between the markets for Souza and Nicholas Castellanos — he’s reported to be interested in signing with the Giants, Cubs or Rangers — though it’s doubtful that any club has Souza ranked ahead of Castellanos (beyond teams whose payroll simply won’t accommodate Castellanos). That said, Souza could certainly be a fallback option for a team that misses out on Castellanos and/or fellow right-handed-hitting corner outfielder Marcell Ozuna.
Looking at the teams listed, the budget-conscious Rays are reportedly hoping to reel in a right-handed bat and assuredly won’t spend at the level required for Castellanos or Ozuna. But they’re plenty familiar with Souza, his makeup, clubhouse presence and on-field upside. Souza spent three seasons in Tampa Bay before being traded to Arizona, but it’s fair to wonder whether he’d be amenable to playing his first season post-surgery on the artificial surface at Tropicana Field.
The Cubs, operating in a decidedly non-Cubs manner over the past two winters, are reportedly looking to shed payroll to avoid a second slap on the wrist for luxury tax purposes. They paid out $7.6MM in luxury fees this year but seem motivated to avoid a second year of taxation despite the fact that a second-year offense would only see their penalty level increase from 20 percent to 30 percent. Nearly every report out of Chicago this offseason has signaled that a Castellanos reunion is far-fetched, but Souza would represent a more affordable option with some upside.
Meanwhile, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said prior to the offseason that adding power to a lineup that was largely devoid of home run threats would be a priority this winter. A healthy Souza fits that description and also fits with the slate of short-term signings the Giants have made under Zaidi.
The Rangers moved on from Nomar Mazara during the Winter Meetings and traded Delino DeShields this past weekend, creating some space in the outfield. They’re a largely left-handed club, so Souza’s right-handed bat could hold some appeal if other options (Castellanos in particular) don’t pan out.
Souza, 31 in April, was worth about four wins above replacement in 2017 when he hit .239/.351/.459 with 30 home runs, 21 doubles, two triples and 16 stolen bases (in 20 tries). He’s graded out as a strong defender in right field, per metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, although coming off such a major knee reconstruction, there’ll surely be some skepticism about his mobility and how well he’ll be able to track down fly balls.
Trade Rumblings: Lindor, Padres, Dodgers, Betts, Yanks, Schwarber
The Padres have at least kicked around the idea of attempting to swing a deal for Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). However, Rosenthal cautions that the superstar probably won’t end up in San Diego, which already has an enviable left side of the infield between shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and third baseman Manny Machado. In the unlikely event the Padres do wind up with Lindor, it seems they’d try to turn Tatis into a multi-position player (primarily a center fielder), though Rosenthal notes doing so could displease the 20-year-old and would likely receive pushback from his representatives. That’s important considering San Diego’s desire to extend the phenom.
On the plus side, in addition to picking up an elite player in Lindor, the Padres would keep him away from the division-rival Dodgers, who have been connected to him this winter. But the Lindor-related talks between LA and Cleveland have only been “preliminary” to this point, per Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription). The Indians, for their part, aren’t necessarily under pressure to trade Lindor right now – he still has two years’ control left and remains the best player on a team that has been a consistent playoff contender in recent seasons. That said, the Indians don’t appear to have much of a chance to extend Lindor, so perhaps they’ll be open to parting with him this winter.
Let’s check in on a couple more of baseball’s highest-profile trade candidates…
- Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported earlier this week that the Red Sox and Dodgers have had “exploratory trade talks” in regards to Boston outfielder Mookie Betts. The Dodgers have even included shortstop Corey Seager in discussions centering on Lindor and Betts, Nightengale relays. However, even though Betts only has a year of control left (in which he should make almost $30MM via arbitration), and even though the Red Sox are working to get under the $208MM luxury tax, it doesn’t look as if there’s any hurry to part with the former AL MVP. Instead, it seems the Red Sox’s preference is to trade from their starting staff, tweets the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier, who hears that they and the Dodgers “had virtually no engagement” in regards to Betts at last week’s Winter Meetings.
- More from Rosenthal, who writes that the Yankees’ years-long interest in Cubs outfielder Kyle Schwarber has continued. Nevertheless, there’s no momentum toward a deal as of now, Rosenthal adds. Schwarber has been a favorite of the Cubs’ front office, though trading him could be part of an offseason shakeup for a club that fell apart late in 2019. The 26-year-old slugger still has two seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining, and he’s coming off a pair of above-average campaigns, so he’d likely be difficult for the Yankees or anyone else to acquire.
Details On Luxury Tax Bills For Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees
The luxury tax bills for the Red Sox, Cubs and Yankees – the three teams that exceeded the $206MM threshold in 2019 – are now public knowledge. The Red Sox owe $13.4MM, the Cubs will pay $7.6MM and the Yankees must surrender $6.7MM, according to Ronald Blum of The Associated Press. As far as actual payrolls go, Boston checked in at $228MM, the Yankees put a $226MM roster on the field and the Cubs spent $220MM, Blum notes.
Neither the Red Sox nor the Cubs made the playoffs in 2019 despite their elite-level spending, while the Yankees lost to the Astros in the ALCS. Now, with the exception of the Yankees (who’ve already made history this offseason with the nine-year, $324MM contract they awarded right-hander Gerrit Cole), those clubs look as if they’re in salary-cutting mode. The tax limit will climb to $208MM next season, and the Yankees will blow past it in the wake of the Cole signing. Moreover, there’s a decent chance the Yankees will outspend the $208MM mark by $40MM or more, which would lead to a 42.5 percent overage tax next year and would cause their highest draft pick to drop 10 spots.
It seems the Red Sox and Cubs would like to avoid the tax, but it remains to be seen whether either will pull off that feat. As things stand, next year’s Red Sox are projected to go beyond $208MM by almost $30MM, while the Cubs will do so by about $6MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.
It will be easier for Boston and Chicago to duck the tax 12 months from now if they sell off an expensive star or two, which seems possible. The clubs have former MVPs (outfielder Mookie Betts for the Red Sox and third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant for the Cubs) who have come up in trade rumors. Betts and Bryant aside, there are other well-compensated potential trade chips in both cases. Left-hander David Price and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. come to the fore for the Red Sox, while righty Yu Darvish and first baseman Anthony Rizzo join Bryant among high-priced Cubs who may not be untouchable.