Jason Heyward’s Quietly Productive Season
Outfielder Jason Heyward entered the majors as a can’t-miss prospect in 2010, three years after the Braves chose him 14th overall in the 2007 draft. Heyward made good on the hype in his first at-bat on Opening Day, smashing a three-run homer off Cubs right-hander Carlos Zambrano, and never really looked back from there in his first season. During a rookie campaign in which he didn’t turn 21 until August, Heyward posted 4.6 fWAR on the strength of tremendous offensive production and right field defense. Little did anyone know Heyward wouldn’t again approach the .277/.393/.456 slash and 134 wRC+ he recorded as a rookie.
Heyward did remain a quality hitter from 2011-15 with the Braves and Cardinals, albeit not as formidable as he was during his initial campaign. Still, combining the above-average offense, stellar defense and well-regarded base running he displayed over his first several seasons, he landed an eight-year, $184MM contract from the Cubs entering the 2016 campaign. Heyward was part of the Cubs’ drought-breaking World Series team in the initial year of his deal, in which he delivered a behind-the-scenes rain delay speech that may have helped the team overcome the Indians in Game 7.
Title aside, the Cubs mostly haven’t gotten the bang for their buck they wanted from giving Heyward one of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. During his first three years in a Cubs uniform, Heyward slashed a paltry .252/.322/.367 (85 wRC+) in 1,562 plate appearances. Heyward continued to flash terrific defense during that period, but the overall package was worth just 4.1 fWAR – less than he registered in four individual seasons before heading to Chicago.
Heyward did manage a league-average 2.0 fWAR in 2018, indicating he was hardly a lost cause, though his offense was middling at best for the third consecutive season. This year has been a different story, however. Across 320 trips to the plate, the 29-year-old has hit .273/.364/.471 (116 wRC+) with 14 home runs – already his highest total as a Cub and his most in a season since 2013. With 1.4 fWAR at the 80-game mark, Heyward’s on pace for his most valuable year as a Cub. The figure’s still not excellent, in part because Heyward has struggled as a center fielder this year, but it’s respectable for a player whose Cubs tenure has been a disappointment overall.
The question is whether the above-average offensive version of Heyward has truly returned. If we’re to believe Statcast, maybe not. Heyward’s expected weighted on-base average, .324, ranks below the league mean and lags well behind his .355 real wOBA. Likewise, Heyward’s expected slugging percentage (30th percentile), hard-hit percentage (37th percentile), average exit velocity (54th percentile) and expected batting average (61st percentile) all range from well below par to a bit above it. The left-handed Heyward’s also continuing a career-long trend of having difficulty against same-handed pitchers, who have held him to a horrid .200/.262/.300 line and a 48 wRC+ this season.
On the other hand, Heyward’s showing off an impressive ability to draw walks that has helped buoy his numbers. With a 12.5 percent walk rate (his highest since his rookie year) against a 17.8 percent strikeout rate, Heyward’s K/BB ratio ranks 25th in the majors. Heyward’s also displaying way more power than he has in recent years, evidenced in part by his aforementioned home run spike. His isolated power (.199) is his greatest since 2012 and sits 84 points higher than the ISO he combined for during his first three Cubs seasons. Heyward’s doing much more damage throughout several zones compared to last year, as FanGraphs’ heat maps show (2018, 2019).
One cause: Heyward’s hitting far fewer infield fly balls than he did earlier in his Chicago stint. An infield fly’s essentially an automatic out, and Heyward hit them at a 16.9 percent rate over the prior three seasons. That number has shrunk to 10.4 this year. With that in mind, it’s no surprise Heyward has upped his hard contact by 6.1 percent compared to 2016-18 and decreased his soft-hit rate by almost 8 percent, according to FanGraphs. Heyward has also logged a 12.2-degree launch angle which ranks as his loftiest in the Statcast era.
None of this is to say the Cubs should be content with what they’ve gotten from Heyward during his run with the team. In fact, they’re stuck with Heyward, who won’t be opting out of the remaining four years and $86MM on his contract during the upcoming offseason. However, he has been a legitimate bright spot this year on a team that has been something of a letdown overall. The Cubs do hold a National League playoff spot at the moment, but not by much. They’ve been slumping since late May and have won just 45 of their first 85 games. Heyward certainly hasn’t been part of the problem, though.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Notable International Signings: 7/2/19
The 2019-20 July 2nd international signing period is officially underway, though it’s not exactly laden with suspense. Teams have long since lined up deals with newly eligible teenage players, so the news today largely represents confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon professional careers.
Let’s round up some of the most notable signings of the day. Throughout, we’ll be citing to the reporting of Baseball America (signings tracker; scouting links) and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (Twitter feed; rankings) along with analysis from Fangraphs. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Check the above links for further information and other signings. Here are a few key deals:
- Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees: Everyone’s top target is reportedly holding strong on his commitment to go to the Bronx. The deal is said to be for $5.1MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com, with an announcement expected this evening. Dominguez is a switch-hitter who’s said to possess five-tool ability. The Fangraphs team is sufficiently impressed to run him all the way up to the #61 overall MLB prospect ranking right out of the gates (via Kiley McDaniel, on Twitter). The Yanks also have struck a $1.2MM deal with outfielder Jhon Diaz, Sanchez tweets. He was the 18th-rated player on the MLB.com board but ran all the way up to #7 at Fangraphs.
- Robert Puason, SS, Athletics: Another player who’ll command about $5MM, Puason is a toolsy shortstop with big upside. He was said to have a deal in place with the Braves before that team was slapped with international sanctions. It’s worth noting that the Atlanta organization wasn’t actually punished for agreeing to terms early (though that widespread practice is officially forbidden) but rather for structuring a group deal with Puason’s trainer, as Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper explains on Twitter.
- Luis Rodriguez, OF, Dodgers: The value on this one is unknown, but BA’s Ben Badler has photographic evidence of the signing (Twitter link). Rodriguez gets top-three billing from Fangraphs. The Los Angeles club is also in agreement with righty Kristian Cardozo, who’s also considered one of the thirty best players available.
- Bayron Lora, OF, Rangers: Baseball America has made this connection for some time; Sanchez tweets that it’s a $4.2MM deal for the slugging prospect. Shortstops Maximo Acosta and Zion Banister are also members of the Texas signing class. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter) has the former at $1.6MM and the latter at $835K. As he notes, the Texas organization will need to acquire some added pool capacity to make the math work.
- Erick Pena, OF, Royals: This is another signing called in advance by the BA crew. Sanchez has the bonus at $3.8MM (Twitter link). FG labels Pena “a well-rounded outfielder with considerable physical projection.”
- Ronnier Quintero, C, Cubs: Occupying the #6 spot on the boards of both Fangraphs and MLB.com, Quintero will follow Willson Contreras from Venezuela to the Chicago organization. The Cubbies also have a deal with fellow top-ten-ish prospect Kevin Made, a shortstop. Sanchez puts the Quintero deal at $3MM and Made’s mark at $1.7MM. Another Venezuelan backstop, Brayan Altuve, will cost the Cubs another million bucks, seemingly setting up the organization for a search for some added pool money.
- Roberto Campos, OF, Tigers: The Detroit organization popped for a hefty $3MM to secure the services of the Cuban outfielder, per Badler (via Twitter). Campos defected in somewhat dramatic fashion several years ago at just 13 years of age. He wasn’t listed among the best prospects, but Chris McCosky of the Detroit News indicates on Twitter that the Tigers like his bat quite a bit.
Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2MM or more, per Sanchez and/or Badler:
Jed Hoyer Discusses Cubs’ Needs
Chicago was on the wrong end of an 18-5 embarrassment against Pittsburgh on Monday, a defeat that dropped the Cubs to 45-40. They’re now 16-22 since they sat a season-best 11 games over .500 on May 22. Although they’ve underwhelmed for a little over a two months, the Cubs are just a game back in a National League Central division mired in mediocrity. With the July 31 trade deadline coming up, Chicago predictably has the mindset of a buyer.
General manager Jed Hoyer shed light on a couple needs the front office is looking to address this month, saying Monday (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times): “Certainly providing some depth offensively is something we’ll look at carefully. And looking at left-handed relief is something we’ll do. Kyle Ryan’s doing a great job, and we’ve used him a lot. [Mike Montgomery} is not your prototypical left-on-left guy; we use him more for length. So that’s something to look at.”
Regarding the former, Wittenmyer points to second base as a position the Cubs could attempt to improve in the coming weeks. They’ve gotten dreadful offensive production at the keystone from primary options Daniel Descalso and Addison Russell, though the multi-positional David Bote has logged decent numbers and fellow utilityman Ben Zobrist could return from the restricted list later in 2019. Zobrist has been out since early May, and he didn’t perform well even before going on leave to deal with personal matters. The Cubs have yet another potential in-house option in Ian Happ, though the 2017-18 staple has struggled since a preseason minor league demotion and hasn’t earned a recall as a result.
If the Cubs do seek a second baseman from outside this summer, they might not find a vast selection. The Royals’ Whit Merrifield is a trade candidate, but they may value him more than another team. Ex-Cub and current Marlin Starlin Castro, the Mariners’ Dee Gordon and the Giants’ Joe Panik represent potentially on-the-move veterans, though they’re all enduring terrible seasons. The Orioles’ Jonathan Villar, the Blue Jays’ Eric Sogard and the Reds’ Derek Dietrich (if they deal him, let alone to a division rival) stand out as a few other second basemen who are enjoying better seasons and could find new homes this month. There’s hardly a slam-dunk answer among that trio, however.
Meantime, while the Cubs just signed proven closer Craig Kimbrel, his addition did nothing to address their lack of lefty options. Ryan has been good, especially against same-handed hitters, but as Hoyer mentioned, Montgomery’s not a traditional late-game reliever. Beyond that, Montgomery has struggled mightily this year. While the Cubs do have veteran southpaw relievers in the minors in Randy Rosario, Tim Collins and Brian Duensing, there’s not a confidence-inspiring hurler in the group.
The question is: Whom could Chicago acquire to solve its problems? The Indians’ Brad Hand is the obvious name, but even if they were to trade the ultra-valuable closer, the Cubs would have trouble parlaying a below-average farm system into a winning bid. The same applies to the Pirates’ Felipe Vazquez, whom they seem inclined to keep. The Nationals’ Sean Doolittle and Giants southpaws Will Smith and Tony Watson could also be difficult to obtain. The Pirates’ Francisco Liriano and the Royals’ Jake Diekman are among other possible options for the Cubs, though the former may be an unrealistic target if the Buccos plan to push for an NL Central crown.
As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted a couple weeks ago, money figures to play an important role for the Cubs around the deadline. The team had an understated offseason because it claimed it was tapped out financially. The Cubs have slogged through a so-so campaign since then, though, and they seem to realize they’re in need of outside aid with the deadline approaching.
Cubs Place Tony Barnette On Restricted List
The Cubs announced today that righty reliever Tony Barnette has been placed on the restricted list, as Patrick Mooney of The Athletic was among those to tweet. He had been pitching at Triple-A on optional assignment.
GM Jed Hoyer says that “Tony is sort of reevaluating things with his family right now.” The veteran hurler evidently was not enthused at the prospect of continuing to work in the minors, with The Cub Reporter first on the news (Twitter link).
Barnette, 35, signed a low-cost, one-year deal that includes a club option. He has thrown the ball well at Triple-A, with a 2.31 ERA and 12:2 K/BB ratio in 11 2/3 innings. But Barnette has received only two MLB appearances this year.
While the news will seemingly leave the Cubs without a depth piece, it’ll also open a 40-man roster spot. Since Barnette is promised only $750K this year, cost considerations are of limited moment.
Quick Hits: Realmuto, Dominguez, Edwards, McKay
J.T. Realmuto was removed during the sixth inning of Sunday’s 13-6 Phillies win over the Marlins after feeling tightness in his left hamstring, Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. The issue arose while Realmuto was running the bases during a seven-run inning for the Phils, and the blowout nature of the game may have also contributed to the early exit, since Realmuto said the injury wasn’t serious. The All-Star catcher described the problem as “just a little standard tightness thing,” and manager Gabe Kapler felt Realmuto would likely be fine for the Phillies’ next game on Tuesday. Realmuto has yet to really catch fire since coming to the Phillies from Miami in a blockbuster trade, as his 95 wRC+ (off a .265/.319/.431 slash line in 310 PA) represents his lowest numbers since 2015. Still, Realmuto’s .353 xwOBA far outpaces his actual .320 wOBA, so his production is likely to improve as long as he keeps up the quality contact.
Some more stray items as we head into July…
- Also from Breen, Seranthony Dominguez will receive a re-evalution of his damaged right UCL on Wednesday. This is the latest step in Dominguez’s quest to avoid Tommy John surgery, as the Phillies right-hander instead opted for a platelet-rich plasma treatment. If everything checks out on Wednesday, Dominguez could begin throwing at the beginning of next week.
- Cubs right-hander Carl Edwards Jr. is set to begin a Triple-A rehab assignment, ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers tweets. Edwards has been on the IL (retroactively) since June 10 due to a left thoracic strain. 2019 has been a tale of two seasons for Edwards, who allowed six runs over his first 1 2/3 innings of the season and was demoted to the minors, though he then delivered a 2.03 ERA over 13 1/3 frames after being recalled.
- Two-way star Brendan McKay made his debut on the mound for the Rays on Saturday, though it isn’t yet known if McKay will also get any plate appearances at the Major League level, MLB.com’s Juan Toribio writes. “We’ve expressed that I don’t think the at-bats are going to come as consistent for him over the next week or so, but if there’s an opportunity to get him in there where we feel it fits with his workload, then we’ll do that,” Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash said. McKay is set to start again on Friday, though in the interim, he’ll be both going through his usual pre-start routine and also getting some swings in, both during batting practice and in the Tropicana Field. While McKay’s pitching was more developed than his hitting in the minor leagues, McKay did hit .265/.400/.551 over the small sample size of 60 plate appearances at Triple-A this season.
Cubs To Activate Kyle Hendricks From Injured List On Tuesday
The Cubs intend to activate Kyle Hendricks from the 10-day injured list on Tuesday so the right-hander can start that night’s game against the Pirates, manager Joe Maddon told reporters (including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times). Hendricks will be limited to roughly 60-75 pitches, so Mike Montgomery or Tyler Chatwood will likely be in line to throw in long relief once Hendricks’ outing is complete.
Hendricks went on the IL on June 15 with a shoulder impingement, which is the type of broadly-defined injury that has occasionally sidelined players for long stretches of time. Fortunately for Hendricks and the Cubs, his problem seemed like a minor issue, as some rest after a cortisone shot and then some warm-up bullpen sessions have left him feeling “100 percent.”
Rather than send Hendricks to the minors for a rehab start, the right-hander will go right back into Chicago’s rotation in the hopes of continuing what has been another outstanding season. Hendricks has a 3.36 ERA, 7.6 K/9, and 4.69 K/BB rate over 88 1/3 innings in 2019, and his somewhat early return will greatly help a starting five that just lost Cole Hamels to the IL with a left oblique strain.
With an off-day on Friday and the All-Star break looming, Wittenmyer suggests that Adbert Alzolay could be optioned to Triple-A to make room for Hendricks on the 25-man roster, after Alzolay starts Monday’s game. Conversely, the Cubs could make another roster move to open a space for Hendricks and then, if he struggles or seems to be laboring, Alzolay could then start the Cubs’ final game of the first half on Sunday (Hendricks is tentatively slated to start that game).
Injury Notes: Hendricks, Pence, Haniger, Treinen, A. Wood
The Cubs lost left-hander Cole Hamels to the injured list Friday, but there’s better news regarding fellow rotation stalwart Kyle Hendricks. The righty, who has been out two weeks because of shoulder inflammation, could return to the Cubs’ rotation as early as the upcoming week. It’s possible Hendricks will skip a rehab start and slot back into the team’s starting staff Tuesday, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. If that happens, the Cubs could get two Hendricks starts before the All-Star break. That would be a boon for NL Central-leading Chicago, whose rotation looks especially shaky at the moment without Hamels and Hendricks. Both starters have enjoyed terrific seasons thus far, with Hendricks having pitched to a 3.36 ERA/3.48 FIP and posted 7.64 K/9 against 1.63 BB/9 in 88 1/3 innings.
More on a few other injured notables…
- Rangers designated hitter/outfielder Hunter Pence will embark on a two-game minor league rehab stint beginning Monday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Barring setbacks, Pence will return to the Rangers on Wednesday. Pence has been out since June 17 with a right groin strain, but the stunning start the revived 36-year-old jumped out to before then earned him his fourth career All-Star nod. Thanks in no small part to Pence, who’s raking at a .294/.353/.608 clip (142 wRC+) with 15 home runs over 215 plate appearances, Texas owns a 46-37 record and a 1 1/2-game lead on the AL’s last wild-card spot.
- Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger won’t return until sometime after the All-Star break, manager Scott Servais announced Saturday (via Greg Johns of MLB.com). The Mariners had been hopeful Haniger would come back a bit before then, but the ruptured testicle he suffered June 6 will ultimately keep him out at least five weeks.
- Athletics closer Blake Treinen is on track to come off the IL on Wednesday, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com tweets. In the meantime, Treinen’s likely to pitch a rehab game Monday. The A’s placed Treinen on the shelf last Saturday with a right shoulder strain, continuing a disappointing campaign for the 30-year-old. Arguably the majors’ premier reliever in 2018, Treinen has recorded a pedestrian 4.08 ERA/4.11 FIP with 9.17 K/9, 5.35 BB/9 and a 43.2 percent groundball rate in 35 1/3 innings this season.
- Reds lefty Alex Wood has dealt with multiple setbacks in his recovery from a back injury, an issue that has stopped him from pitching in the majors this year. But he’ll make another attempt to progress toward a rehab assignment, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer relays. Wood plans to throw off flat ground Sunday, and the Reds will determine his next step thereafter. “We’re keeping our fingers crossed, hopeful that it wasn’t too big of a setback for him,” manager David Bell said of the latest setback Wood suffered earlier this week.
Cubs DFA Carlos Gonzalez, Place Cole Hamels On IL, Recall Dillon Maples, Rowan Wick
The scene in the Cubs clubhouse Friday suggested a DFA was coming for Carlos Gonzalez, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter), who noted Gonzalez receiving handshakes and hugs from teammates. CarGo indeed was put on waivers earlier today, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The team has officially announced the move, along with a trio of corresponding roster moves: Cole Hamels goes on the 10-day injured list, while relievers Rowan Wick and Dillon Maples have been recalled from Triple-A.
The Cubs would like to send Gonzalez to the minors, per Heyman, though he would first have to go unclaimed, and second accept the assignment. If he does go unclaimed, the writing would be on the wall for Gonzalez, who then might be willing to accept a minor league assignment to stay in the Cubs organization.
The Gonzalez DFA was precipitated by the Hamels injury, which overtaxed the bullpen and pushed the Cubs to add a pair of arms before today’s game. Hamels left yesterday’s game after one inning with an oblique injury. Mike Montgomery, Brad Brach, and Kyle Ryan each pitched for more than one inning apiece, while Steve Cishek pitched for the second straight game. Maples and Wick rejoin the club today to serve as reinforcements.
CarGo managed a couple of nice moments during his short stint in Chicago, including a diving catch in the outfield in his first weekend, but a listless offensive performance ultimately made him expendable in Chicago, as he had been in Cleveland previous. In 15 games with the Cubs – half as much time as he spent with the Indians – Gonzalez hit only .175/306/.300 with three extra-base hits.
Gonzalez has maintained a good approach in his age-33 season with a 10.8 BB% that’s higher than his career average. Strikeouts have been more frequent (31.3 K%), but even more troubling has been his inability to get any lift. In 166 plate appearances for the Cubs and Indians, Gonzalez has mustered a mere .083 isolated power mark while hitting the ball on the ground 56.4 % of the time. Statcast puts Gonzalez’ launch angle for the year at just 1.7 – not a sustainable mark for a major league hitter.
Gonzalez has fit well in the Cubs clubhouse, and he was a fun attraction for a few weeks, but ultimately the Cubs cannot afford to be patient with the veteran slugger. While there are at-bats for the taking in the Cubs outfield, it’s not necessarily an area of need with Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora, Jason Heyward, and Kris Bryant on hand. They’d certainly prefer a degree of greater offense from Almora in particular, but CarGo is not to be the answer.
Though they will use Gonzalez’ roster spot on a pitcher for the moment, the fourth outfielder role could eventually be returned to Mark Zagunis, who held the role early in the season, or Ian Happ, who continues to refine his approach in Triple-A.
MLB Draft Signings: 6/29/19
We’ll use this post to track some of the day’s draft signings…
- The Cubs signed their 3rd rounder to below-slot value today, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter). Michael McAvene signs for $500K, just a little below his potential value as the 103rd overall pick in the draft – slot value of $565,600. He appeared in 23 games out of the Cardinals bullpen this season, going 2-0 with a 2.73 ERA across 33 innings. He struck out 50 versus only 11 walks, good marks for the righty, who chucked a mid-90s heater as a reliever. There’s at least a chance the Cubs will try to convert him to a starter moving forward.
- The Mariners signed their supplemental 2nd rounder Isaiah Campbell for $850K, tweets Callis. Slot value for the 76th pick in the draft is $818,200, but Seattle felt Campbell was worth splurging for. Campbell rocks a mid-90s heater that touches 98 mph, and he has a couple of interesting secondary pitches as well. Campbell helmed the staff for the Arkansas Razorbacks this season, goin 12-1 with a 2.13 ERA in 18 starts. He struck out 125 batters versus only 22 walks, promising numbers for Seattle’s new righty. Fun fact from Callis, Campbell would be the first major leaguer from Portugal since the illustrious Frank Thompson in 1875.
Cubs To Place Cole Hamels On Injured List
Cubs southpaw Cole Hamels exited his start Friday with a left oblique strain, manager Joe Maddon told Jordan Bastian of MLB.com and other reporters. The severity of the injury won’t be known until Hamels undergoes an MRI, but he will go on the injured list, according to Maddon.
Oblique issues often lead to weeks-long absences, which is one of the last thing the Cubs need in this instance. The Cubs are already without their top starter, Kyle Hendricks, who hasn’t pitched since June 14 because of shoulder inflammation and may not return until after the All-Star break. Beyond that, Chicago’s rotation hasn’t gotten great performances from the established trio of Jon Lester, Jose Quintana and Yu Darvish.
With their starters not firing on all cylinders this year, the Cubs are sitting a somewhat disappointing 44-38, though they do hold a half-game lead over the second-place Brewers in the NL Central. The Cubs lost for the 11th time in 18 games Friday, when Hamels lasted a mere one inning against the Reds. The 35-year-old was amid yet another quality season before suffering his oblique strain, as evidenced by a 2.98 ERA/3.56 FIP with 8.76 K/9, 3.16 BB/9 and a 51.1 percent groundball rate in 99 2/3 innings.
Hamels’ injury could certainly affect the Cubs’ plans leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. For now, though, they’ll have to make do with in-house arms after Lester, Quintana and Darvish. Tyler Chatwood and prospect Adbert Alzolay have each started games of late, though neither righty has soaked up many innings in those showings. The Cubs also have experienced lefty swingman Mike Montgomery, who replaced Hamels on Friday, but he has posted surprisingly subpar numbers this year and hasn’t thrown more than 2 1/3 innings in a game since May 9. Otherwise, the Cubs may have to dip into the minors if they want to find a Hamels replacement from within.