White Sox “Very Serious” Suitors For Edwin Encarnacion
DEC. 23: The White Sox seem to be aggressively going after Encarnacion, as they’re “very serious” in their pursuit and look as if they’re “at the forefront of talks,” Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. However, Heyman notes that it’s doubtful a deal will come together until after the holidays.
DEC. 22: The White Sox are showing interest in free agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score.
The South Siders have already made a couple of high-profile acquisitions this winter, dishing out multi-year contracts to catcher Yasmani Grandal and lefty Dallas Keuchel. They’ve also added Gio Gonzalez and Nomar Mazara in a pair of lower-profile moves. They’ve been one of the most active teams this winter, and there might still be more to come.
While the additions of Gonzalez and Keuchel—along with the presumed return of touted prospect Michael Kopech and the expected progression of Dylan Cease—figure to provide a healthy boost to the starting rotation, the White Sox could certainly stand to improve the lineup, which in 2019 put up the third-fewest runs in the American League. While Grandal is an unquestionable upgrade, he and Mazara alone are surely not enough to vault the offense into the league’s upper division.
Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson are premium talents on the left side of the infield, and they showcased their talent with a pair of breakout seasons in 2019. Top prospects Nick Madrigal and Luis Robert loom as likely solutions to the vacancies at second base and in center field after putting up video-game numbers in the minors.
Between Anderson, Moncada, Madrigal, Mazara, Jimenez, and Robert, the upside of the lineup is undeniable and the best-case outcome is a lineup that goes nine deep, but Sox fans will more likely have to wait a couple years for that reality to actualize. As far as this year is concerned, the volatility of that group equals its potential. With that in mind, the veteran combination of Jose Abreu and Encarnacion looks like as good a pair as any to teach the young guns.
Enter Edwin? Encarnacion, who will play the 2020 season at age 37, is still among the finest designated hitters in baseball and could probably roll out of bed and put up 30 homers and 100 RBI. He would surely serve as a fine anchor for a youthful lineup that seems to lack a “sure thing.” And he won’t cost a fortune. Even if the Sox, after inking Grandal and Keuchel to hefty deals, are nearing their spending limit—Roster Resource estimates their current 2020 payroll at $112MM, compared to $96MM at the end of 2019—Encarnacion is an affordable option; MLBTR projected that he would earn a one-year deal worth $8MM in free agency.
White Sox Reportedly Still Interested In Nicholas Castellanos
The White Sox have already filled a corner outfield spot by acquiring Nomar Mazara in a trade and added some notable salary by inking Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez as free agents. Despite that slate of moves, however, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the ChiSox are still interested in bringing free-agent slugger Nicholas Castellanos into the fold.
Morosi suggests that the White Sox are comfortable with their payroll continuing to grow. He lists the team’s current obligations as close to $100MM, though that seemingly isn’t accounting for pre-arbitration players; Jason Martinez of Roster Resource has the club currently projected at just over $112MM, including Keuchel and Gonzalez — neither of whom has been formally announced by the team.
Regardless, it certainly would seem as though the Sox have the payroll capacity to fit Castellanos into the budget. The White Sox’ previous record for Opening Day payroll came back in 2011 when they approached $128MM, and the team’s clear shift from rebuild to win-now mode has naturally been accompanied by expectations of greater spending. They’ll also see Alex Colome, James McCann and Kelvin Herrera come off the books next season, so there’s ample space down the road as well.
With the Sox, Castellanos, Mazara and Eloy Jimenez could seemingly be rotated through the corner outfield spots and designated hitter in an effort to keep all three fresh. None of the bunch is capable of playing center field, even in a pinch, although top prospect Luis Robert is looming in the upper minors and should get his first look at the big leagues in 2020. With Robert and top second base prospect Nick Madrigal both believed to be on the cusp of MLB promotions, it’s certainly arguable that adding another potent bat to step in at designated hitter is a greater need than adding insurance in center field or at second base.
That said, the White Sox surely aren’t the only ones still vying for Castellanos and arguably don’t have as acute a need as some rival clubs. The Rangers, for instance, have been aggressive in reshaping their pitching staff but haven’t done anything to upgrade their lineup. The Reds have added Mike Moustakas but have reportedly been in the market for an outfielder since, so Castellanos would still seem to fit the bill there as well. Other clubs, including the Giants, D-backs and Cubs have all been linked to Castellanos to varying extents, although the Cubs seemingly aren’t going to spend at anywhere near the level it would take to bring Castellanos back to Wrigley Field.
Notes On Dallas Keuchel, Market Trends
The White Sox continued their active offseason by inking Dallas Keuchel to a three-year deal with a vesting option for a fourth. Let’s check in on some reactions to Chicago’s most recent splash, as well as a look at broader market trends.
- The Sox are still a bit shy of being legitimate contenders, feels ESPN’s David Schoenfield. Between some anticipated regression from Tim Anderson, whose .399 BABIP is not sustainable, and uncertainty among Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal and Nomar Mazara, Chicago’s lineup doesn’t match up with the league’s elite, even if it is rife with upside. In Schoenfield’s estimation, that’s not quite enough to support a rotation that still looks a bit underwhelming. Keuchel and Gio González are reliable but no longer top-of-the-rotation starters, and there’s little in the way of depth beyond those two and ace Lucas Giolito. Skepticism aside, Schoenfield notes there’s little question this will be the most exciting White Sox team in recent memory.
- The Athletic’s James Fegan feels similarly, pointing out that the Sox may not contend until the soon to be 32-year-old Keuchel is firmly on the downside of his career. Nevertheless, Fegan praises the signing as a “declarative moment” for the franchise. Between Keuchel and Yasmani Grandal, the organization is showing “seriousness and urgency about breaking an embarrassing eleven-year playoff drought,” Fegan argues. Keuchel should be a positive in the clubhouse, he feels, and Chicago no doubt needed to add capable arms to a rotation that was the league’s sixth-worst run prevention unit in 2019.
- While the 72-win White Sox have been busy this offseason, playoff teams have actually been the most active in free agency thus far, found Ben Clemens of Fangraphs in a piece which predated the Keuchel signing. 58.6% of free agents worth at least 2 fWAR last season have inked with teams who made the postseason in 2019. (Keuchel’s signing wouldn’t change that figure, as he was worth just 0.8 wins in his abbreviated time with the Braves). If that trend were to hold, it would make for the highest rate of quality free agents flocking to playoff teams in the past twenty years. Grandal, Mike Moustakas and Anthony Rendon are among the notable exceptions. Nevertheless, as Clemens explores more fully, teams looking to defend their postseason berths, not those hoping to unseat recent powerhouses, have been the first to strike in free agency.
MLBTR Poll: Grading The Dallas Keuchel Deal
Dallas Keuchel is the newest member of the White Sox, courtesy of a three-year, $55.5MM deal with a vesting option that could push the final value of the deal to 4/$74MM. At 31 years old, Keuchel can’t be called an upside play, nor is he likely, given recent performance, to repeat the kind of output that saw him earn a Cy Young award back in 2015. But, in committing multiple years and an $18.5MM AAV to the lefty, the White Sox seemed to, for the moment, answer an age-old question: just what is the value of “pretty good”, anyway?
For front offices in recent offseasons, “pretty good” has seemed to be a non-starter. When Keuchel was on the market just last winter, more than a few observers offered opinions on why the lefty struggled to find a long-term deal: there was the dip in velocity; the mid-3.00 FIPs; a resounding lack of strikeout oomph. Few argued that Keuchel was an incompetent pitcher, but words like “impact”, “upside”, and “premier” were not what one would have ascribed to him. A year later, debate will likely still follow his receipt of a deal that, if vested, will be within throwing distance of a $100MM.
Then again, if the case of Dallas Keuchel and his recent forays into the open market say anything, the commentary may be more about the current qualifying offer system than anything else. Sure, one could argue that the prorated, one-year, $13MM deal he signed with the Braves last year was of the “prove it” variety— a chance to show that downward trends in velocity and underlying metrics wouldn’t threaten his bottom-line results. But did Keuchel really prove that in 2019?
Across 112.2 innings with Atlanta, Keuchel basically pitched to career averages. His 3.72 ERA (3.67 career ERA), 7.27 K/9 (7.16 career K/9), and 60.1% GB rate (58.9% career GB rate) in 2019 were all in keeping with his broader body of work, if not slightly better. Meanwhile, he continued to show diminished velocity (88.3 mean mph in 2019) and his 4.72 FIP would tell you he was somewhat benefitted by the defense playing behind him in Atlanta—leaving some remaining question as to whether his performance is sustainable. Basically, Keuchel is the same guy who entered last offseason in search of a long-term deal—except one year older, and, perhaps more critically, free of a QO. For those inclined to criticize this deal as an overpay based on what the lefty received last offseason, it would pay to bear that in mind.
Within the context of this offseason, Keuchel checks in comfortably below what Madison Bumgarner received from Arizona. That five-year, $85MM was slightly lighter in terms of AAV, although that was likely a secondary consideration with respect to the opportunity to maximize guaranteed dollars—plus, we know Bumgarner was rather adamant about ending up in Arizona and may have left richer offers on the table. Meanwhile, it trumps what Kyle Gibson earned, and is miles above the one-year, $9MM guarantee that Julio Teheran—another player comfortably within the hall of pretty good—received from Los Angeles. This may not register as brilliant analysis, but, for the moment, Keuchel’s deal seems to occupy its own little window in the winter of 2019-2020.
For a relatively recent precedent, we might look, perhaps a bit ironically, to the four-year, $67.5MM contract Nathan Eovaldi drew from the Red Sox in the very same offseason that saw Keuchel left out in the cold. Eovaldi was likely able to earn that sum because of his relative youth, postseason performance, and, of course, premier amounts of impact/upside. Keuchel was lacking in a few of those departments last offseason, but, then again, he offered a few things Eovaldi did not: a broad track record of stability, numerous 30-start seasons, and a sinker-based repertoire that may prove more immune to season-over-season vagaries. He may lack Eovaldi’s horizon, but he offers a “pretty good” floor. That Keuchel should ultimately line up alongside Eovaldi in terms of AAV is perhaps a fitting commentary on his value.
So, what say you? Is this an overpay for veteran stability or a reasonable investment in the market’s mid-point? Just what is the value of pretty good, anyway? (Poll link for app users)
White Sox To Sign Gio Gonzalez
DECEMBER 20: Gonzalez is slated to receive a $5MM guarantee, per James Fegan of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’ll be paid $4.5MM for the coming season, with $1MM in incentives, before the club decides between a $7MM option and $500K buyout.
DECEMBER 19: The White Sox are in agreement with left-hander Gio Gonzalez, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. Reporter Robert Murray (Twitter link) was the first to break the news that Gonzalez and the Sox were nearing a contract. Gonzalez is represented by CAA Sports.
Gonzalez represents Chicago’s first major pitching acquisition of the offseason, after the Sox were widely expected to target rotation help. While the White Sox have thus far been linked to several big name hurlers on the free agent and trade fronts, the 34-year-old Gonzalez is a less-heralded veteran who still offers some significant upside to the 2020 staff.
Gonzalez was actually drafted by the White Sox (38th overall) back in 2004 but never played for the team, as he was sent to the Phillies as a player to be named later in the November 2005 deal that brought Jim Thome to the Windy City. Over 1901 1/3 career innings with the A’s, Nationals, and Brewers, Gonzalez has established himself as a usually-durable starter who can miss bats (8.6 K/9), limit free passes (3.8 BB/9), keep the ball on the ground (47.1% grounder rate), and limit home run damage (0.8 HR/9).
Gonzalez came close to matching all of these career numbers in 2019, and his 3.50 ERA over 87 1/3 innings with Milwaukee also fell near his 3.68 career ERA. The big outlier, however, was the lack of innings, as Gonzalez spent almost two months on the injured list due to a dead arm. The southpaw already got off to an abbreviated start to the 2019 campaign since he didn’t sign until March 19 (a minor league deal with the Yankees), and missed much of Spring Training rather than going through a normal ramp-up process to Opening Day.
With a full offseason to prepare, Gonzalez could very well return to his normal self next year, which would be a nice boost to a young White Sox rotation. Ace Lucas Giolito is the only projected 2020 rotation member coming off a quality season, as Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez have yet to prove themselves at the MLB level, with Lopez taking a step back after a promising 2018. Gonzalez will now join that trio as Chicago’s starting four, with Dylan Covey, and veteran swingman Ross Detwiler in line to compete for the fifth starter’s job. Michael Kopech is also expected to be in the mix as he returns from undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2018.
It isn’t quite yet the pitching staff that you would expect from a contending team, which is why the White Sox are likely to keep up their efforts to acquire more front-of-the-rotation help. The Sox have been linked to such names as Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, and David Price in recent days, though came up in efforts to sign Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Jordan Lyles, and Cole Hamels.
White Sox Sign Cheslor Cuthbert
1:35PM: The White Sox have officially announced Cuthbert’s signing. It is a minor league deal, with an invitation to the team’s Major League Spring Training camp.
1:07PM: The White Sox have reached an agreement with free agent infielder Cheslor Cuthbert, according to reporter Robert Murray (Twitter link). Cuthbert hit the open market in early December after the Royals chose not to tender him a contract.
Cuthbert was projected to earn $1.8MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility, though Kansas City decided to move on in the wake of a season that saw Cuthbert hit .246/.294/.379 with nine homers over 330 PA. It was a performance almost exactly on par with the .250/.300/.378 slash line Cuthbert has posted over 1160 career plate appearances, all with the Royals from 2015-19.
Most of Cuthbert’s time in K.C. was spent as a third baseman, and he stepped into a virtual everyday role in 2016 when Mike Moustakas spent much of the season on the injured list. Despite posting some solid numbers that year, Cuthbert’s production badly tailed off in the subsequent three seasons and he became little more than a bench piece.
Aside from his work at the hot corner, Cuthbert also has played a lot of first base and a handful of games at second over his career. Second base could potentially be Cuthbert’s best path to playing time in Chicago, as while star rookie Nick Madrigal is expected to make his MLB debut at some point in 2020, the White Sox will need some kind of veteran stopgap until Madrigal is ready. Yolmer Sanchez was non-tendered, leaving rookie Danny Mendick as the current top choice for the Opening Day lineup. It seems likely that Cuthbert could be one of many veteran infielders brought into Chicago’s Spring Training camp to compete for the second base job, and Cuthbert’s versatility could give him a path to staying on the roster as a utility infielder once Madrigal is called up.
Pitching Notes: Ryu, Keuchel, Ray, King Felix
Hyun-Jin Ryu is very arguably the top starter remaining on the free-agent market, though his injury history is a clear red flag despite the southpaw’s dominant showing over the past couple of seasons. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported earlier this week that Ryu was “expected” to top four years and $80MM on his next contract, but on this morning’s appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove show (video link), Rosenthal indicated that multiple teams have since told him they were immediately skeptical of that price point: “I heard from a couple of clubs yesterday that said ‘That’s not going to happen — not with that medical history.'”
Certainly, that doesn’t rule out the possibility of a four-year pact for Ryu, but the pushback serves to underscore what makes Ryu such a polarizing free agent. The 32-year-old (33 in March) has a 2.21 ERA over his past 265 innings and a 2.71 ERA in 391 2/3 innings dating back to 2017. On a per-inning basis, he’s among the market’s elite options, but Ryu’s age and injury history likely have some teams steering clear of him on any type of notable multi-year arrangement. It only takes one team to push to four years, but to this point, his realistic price tag is hard to pin down.
More on Ryu and the rest of the pitching market…
- Ryu’s agent Scott Boras, who also represents lefty Dallas Keuchel, chatted with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand about the two free-agent southpaws and (unsurprisingly) offered optimism that a deal could come together in the near future. “Clubs are identifying their needs, and we’re certainly narrowing the corridor of finality,” Boras said with characteristic idiosyncrasy. “It could happen soon.” Meanwhile, Bruce Levine of 670AM The Score/CBS Chicago writes that the White Sox are interested in both Boras lefties, also implying that the team might find it preferable to add a free-agent of that ilk rather than for a one-year rental (e.g. Robbie Ray). The ChiSox are still hopeful of reeling in a rotation upgrade but are wary of surrendering notable young talent for a one-year upgrade.
- The Diamondbacks‘ decision to sign Madison Bumgarner wasn’t made as a precursor to a Robbie Ray trade, GM Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Of course, it wouldn’t behoove any general manager to proclaim otherwise, and as Piecoro observes, nothing in Hazen’s comments expressly rules out the possibility of trading Ray, who’ll be a free agent next winter. Arizona moved Paul Goldschmidt under similar circumstances, when he had a year of control remaining and was set to be their second-highest-paid player. (Ray will actually be Arizona’s highest-paid player, given the backloaded nature of Bumgarner’s deal.) The strong demand for pitching and dwindling supply in free agency should make Ray a popular target and could position the D-backs to again pick up a controllable piece or two that’s near the big league level, as was the case in recent trades of Goldschmidt (Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly) and Zack Greinke (Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Josh Rojas).
- Former Mariners ace Felix Hernandez has already made clear he won’t be hanging up his spikes. He’s “receiving interest” from teams, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports on Twitter, although the extent of that interest isn’t clear. Hernandez may be a former Cy Young winner who sat atop the hierarchy of baseball’s very best pitchers from 2009-14, but his decline into a back-of-the-rotation arm and, more recently, a liability on the mound was rather swift. Over the past two seasons, Hernandez has limped to a dismal 5.82 ERA / 5.44 FIP in 227 1/3 innings. The scintillating heater that averaged nearly 96 mph and scraped triple digits when he debuted as a babyfaced 19-year-old in 2005 has faded to an 89.5 mph average dating back to Opening Day 2018. A pitcher with Hernandez’s preternatural talent shouldn’t be totally counted out, particularly given that he won’t even turn 34 until April, but he’s purely a rebound candidate at this point.
White Sox To Sign Ross Detwiler
The White Sox have agreed to a minor league contract with veteran left-hander Ross Detwiler, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). He’ll return to the ChiSox after appearing in 18 games for them during the 2019 campaign.
Detwiler, 33, was once the No. 6 overall pick in the draft and, earlier in his career, was a fine back-end starter for some competitive Nationals clubs. His 2012 season included 164 1/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball, and his overall body of work between the rotation and bullpen from 2010-14 was sound: 394 1/3 innings with a 3.61 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 5.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.
Things have gone south for Detwiler since, however. He’s floundered through brief stints with Texas, Cleveland, Atlanta, Seattle and the White Sox, pitching to a combined 6.60 ERA in 182 2/3 innings of work since being traded away from the Nationals prior to the 2015 campaign. Detwiler did pitch well in eight Triple-A starts for the White Sox in 2019 and has had successful indie ball stints in 2018-19, but it’s been a half decade since his last solid run in the Majors. He’ll give the Sox some depth in both the rotation and in the bullpen for the upcoming season, but the Chicago front office surely remains in pursuit of more impactful additions.
Latest On James McCann
White Sox catcher James McCann was quietly one of the most productive backstops of 2019, during which he slashed .273/.328/.460 with 2.3 fWAR across 476 plate appearances. But McCann’s offensive numbers petered out as the year progressed, and he’s now done as the team’s No. 1 option after it signed fellow catcher Yasmani Grandal to a club-record guarantee worth $73MM over four years just under a month ago.
Despite adding Grandal as their undisputed first-string catcher, the White Sox appear perfectly content to retain McCann as a backup. According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, it would take an overwhelming offer for the White Sox to part with McCann, who’s entering his final year of team control (in which he’ll earn a projected $4.9MM).
Even though the free-agent market for catchers has shrunk (Grandal and Travis d’Arnaud are among those who have signed), odds are good that no one will bowl over Chicago in an effort to get McCann. After all, before heading to the Windy City, McCann was largely a below-average producer with the Tigers from 2014-18 – a 1,658-plate appearance span in which he managed a meager .240/.288/.366 line. That subpar performance helped influence the Tigers to non-tender McCann a little over 12 months ago. Behind the plate, McCann has regularly fared well at throwing out would-be base stealers. The 29-year-old has caught 36 percent of runners (compared to a 29 percent league-average mark) since he first cracked the majors. However, McCann has typically earned poor overall defensive marks from Baseball Prospectus.
While McCann does have his flaws, he could nonetheless keep garnering a solid amount of playing time if the White Sox keep him. Grandal’s locked in as their top catcher, but he’s a good enough offensive hitter to pick up reps at DH and/or first base should the club try to limit his wear and tear, which would open up playing time for McCann.
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/16/19
Here are the latest minor moves from around the baseball world…
- Outfielder Nicky Delmonico announced Monday on Instagram that he has rejoined the White Sox. He’ll head to big league camp as a non-roster invitee, per Lamond Pope of the Chicago Tribune. Delmonico had been without a team since the White Sox released him in June on the heels of season-ending shoulder surgery. Before that, the 27-year-old struggled through a subpar year and a half as a member of the club. While Delmonico stood out during a 166-plate appearance major league debut in 2017, evidenced by a .262/.373/.482 slash, he has stumbled to an underwhelming .213/.290/.357 line in 386 MLB trips to the dish since then.
- Rockies right-hander Joe Harvey has been outrighted to Triple-A Albuquerque after clearing waivers, the team announced. Harvey, whom Colorado acquired from the Yankees at last season’s trade deadline, divided the majority of 2019 between the two clubs’ Triple-A affiliates. A bloated walk rate (5.19 per nine) helped lead to a less-than-stellar 4.93 ERA across 34 2/3 innings, though the 27-year-old Harvey did strike out upward of 12 batters per nine at the minors’ top level. The former 14th-round pick (2014) picked up his first MLB experience last season, but he yielded 10 earned runs on 18 hits and 13 walks (against 17 strikeouts) over 18 frames between New York and Colorado.
- Outfielder Jerry Sands has reached an agreement with the Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, Jim Allen relays. Sands, a once-promising prospect, appeared with a few major league teams from 2011-16, but he had trouble establishing himself in the bigs. On the other hand, the 32-year-old was excellent in the Korea Baseball Organization over parts of the previous two seasons, during which he combined for a .306/.394/.574 line with 40 homers in 706 PA as a member of the Kiwoom Heroes.