MLBTR Poll: Nicholas Castellanos’ Contract
With free agency’s top three players all having come off the board at the Winter Meetings, fans can now turn their attention to the second tier of the market. Chief among those second-tier players is Nicholas Castellanos. The youngest free agent among MLBTR’s top 50, the 27-year-old (28 in March) has compiled a strong multi-year offensive track record. Since the start of 2017, he has slashed .287/.337/.505 (121 wRC+). He also has the fortune of hitting the market fresh off a dynamic second-half tear following a trade from the Tigers to the Cubs. Even more importantly, that midseason swap allowed him to hit the market unencumbered by a qualifying offer.
Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings have been thoroughly discussed, and they figure to drag down his market somewhat. He washed out at third base, and the Tigers bumped him to the corner outfield. Unsurprisingly, that transition got off to a dreadful start, as Castellanos rated as 31 outs below average, per Statcast, over his first season-plus on the grass. To his credit, he took a significant step forward with the glove in 2019. Last year, Statcast had Castellanos as just two outs below average, while UZR and DRS each felt he cost his teams about five to ten runs defensively. It’s highly unlikely Castellanos will ever be even average with the glove, but he has shown enough competency to pique the interest of NL suitors. Teams needn’t have a DH slot to plug Castellanos’ potent bat into the lineup. They just have to be willing to stomach less-than-ideal range in the corner outfield.
Castellanos’ youth gives him a broad range of appeal. Teams not poised to contend in 2020 could still pursue Castellanos and expect a few peak years in 2021 and beyond. Whether he would be amenable to joining a non-contender after suffering through a few miserable years in Detroit isn’t clear, but he should have plenty of options. To this point in the offseason, we’ve heard Castellanos linked to the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Reds. The Cubs, too, obviously like the player, but they are seemingly unwilling to take on the cost a Castellanos deal would require. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR readers considered the cross-town White Sox the plurality favorite, as did the MLBTR staff. They haven’t been publicly tied to Castellanos this offseason, though, and they’ve seemingly addressed their right field situation through other means. To this point, the strongest tie to Castellanos has been with the Giants. One rival executive thinks it a foregone conclusion he’ll end up in San Francisco, although there’s ample time for the sweepstakes to go in any number of directions.
What of Castellanos’ price tag? He’s a tough free agent to pin down. The MLBTR staff forecast a four-year, $58MM deal at the start of the offseason. There are perhaps wider error bars on Castellanos than many free agents, though. He obviously has wide appeal, having been linked to almost a third of the league over the past month. The market, too, has proven stronger than anticipated for quite a few players in the early going. That said, we’re only a few months removed from the Tigers trading Castellanos to Chicago for a pair of mid-tier prospects. That came on the heels of months of Detroit not finding any offers to their liking despite Castellanos’ prominent availability on the trade block. There’s no doubt Castellanos improved his stock somewhat by tearing the cover off the ball in Chicago, but it wasn’t all that long ago that teams seemed to regard him as a fine but hardly game-changing player.
As we did recently with Josh Donaldson, let’s turn things over to you to gauge the Castellanos market.
Where will Castellanos sign (answer order randomized)? Poll link for app users.
Where Will Nicholas Castellanos Sign?
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Reds 22% (5,534)
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Cubs 20% (5,211)
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Giants 17% (4,374)
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White Sox 17% (4,244)
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Rangers 14% (3,492)
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Diamondbacks 4% (1,083)
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Other (specify in comments) 4% (1,035)
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Marlins 3% (747)
Total votes: 25,720
For how long will the contract be? Poll link for app users.
How many guaranteed years will Nicholas Castellanos receive?
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Four years 49% (7,223)
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Three years 31% (4,639)
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Five-plus years 11% (1,681)
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Two years 7% (990)
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One year 2% (300)
Total votes: 14,833
What will be the final number? Poll link for app users.
How much guaranteed money will Nicholas Castellanos receive?
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$55-70MM 40% (5,574)
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$40-55MM 26% (3,550)
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$70-85MM 20% (2,743)
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Under $40MM 8% (1,113)
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Over $85MM 6% (821)
Total votes: 13,801
Latest On David Price Trade Talks
It seems more and more plausible that the Red Sox will end up working out a deal involving lefty David Price, MLB.com’s Mark Feisand reports. The Padres, Cardinals, White Sox, Reds, and Angels have all shown varying degrees of interest in the 34-year-old, per the report.
Price is still owed $32MM a year for the next three seasons. That’s a big chunk of change for a 34-year-old who has made just 63 starts over the past three seasons — including 22 starts in a 2019 campaign that was cut short by elbow and wrist issues. Price was the embodiment of durability from 2010-16, pacing the Major Leagues with 1529 1/3 innings over that seven-year stretch, but he’s totaled just 358 frames over the past three seasons.
When on the field, of course, Price remains an effective pitcher — albeit one whose weighty annual salary no longer aligns with his rate of compensation. Dating back to 2017, Price owns a 3.75 ERA and 3.82 FIP. The 2019 season resulted in one of the worst ERAs of Price’s career (4.28), but he did give some reason for optimism with a career-high 10.7 K/9 and 28 percent strikeout rate. Price’s control remained solid (2.7 BB/9, seven percent walk rate), and his 21.0 K-BB% was the second-best of his career. Stranding runners was an issue, and a career-high .336 average on balls in play against him assuredly did Price no favors. Ultimately, though, Red Sox ownership’s desire to drop back below the luxury tax line is the driving factor in moving Price, whose seven-year, $217MM contract comes with a $31MM annual luxury hit.
Feinsand notes that the Red Sox have no desire to attach a desirable young player such as Andrew Benintendi to Price in order to simply shed the remainder of his contract. The Athletic’s Chad Jennings offers a similar sentiment (subscription required). “I don’t think we’d ever want to rule anything out,” chief baseball office Chaim Bloom of parting with prospects to help facilitate a Price trade (quote via Jennings). “But so much of what we’re always going to be trying to accomplish, but certainly now, is to make sure we have as strong a farm system as possible.”
Of course, that doesn’t mean that the Sox would be forced to simply include cash along with Price in a trade. The Boston organization could certainly acquire another unpalatable contract in return, thus helping to . The Padres have discussed the possibility of including Wil Myers in a deal, for instance, although there’s no indication that such talks gained any traction. Myers himself is owed a regrettable $61MM over the next three seasons and just wrapped up an ugly .239/.321/.418 effort, striking out in 34.2 percent of his plate appearances along the way.
AL Central Notes: Donaldson, Edwin, Shaw, Fulmer, Tigers
Some rumblings from the AL Central…
- Reports surfaced a few weeks ago that the Twins “kicked the tires” on Josh Donaldson and other third basemen, and La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that the Twins have continued to show interest in Donaldson’s services. With Anthony Rendon now wearing Angels red, Minnesota will face some stiff competition for the best third baseman remaining on the market, as the Rangers and Nationals are among the clubs who are reportedly set to redirect their efforts towards signing Donaldson are coming up short on Rendon.
- The White Sox have met with Edwin Encarnacion‘s agents, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine reports (Twitter link). After already adding Yasmani Grandal and Nomar Mazara, signing Encarnacion would add even more pop to Chicago’s lineup, as he would pair with Jose Abreu (and Grandal, on days when Grandal isn’t catching) in the first base/DH mix. The Blue Jays are the only other team known to have some interest in Encarnacion this offseason, though Levine reports that Encarnacion’s camp has also met with two other teams, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Encarnacion has received interest from six clubs overall — five in the American League and one in the National League. The mystery NL team made Encarnacion an offer, according to Heyman, though the veteran slugger has said he would prefer to remain in the AL.
- The Tigers are one of the teams interested in Travis Shaw, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports (via Twitter). Shaw was non-tendered by the Brewers last week, as Shaw’s disastrous 2019 season left Milwaukee wary of paying the infielder a projected $4.7MM arbitration salary. In 2017-18, however, Shaw hit .258/.347/.497 with 63 homers over 1193 PA for the Brew Crew, so he could be an intriguing buy-low candidate for several clubs. In particular, a rebuilding team like Detroit could certainly see the rebound potential in Shaw, who can play either corner infield position and also has experience at second base.
- Tigers GM Al Avila provided reporters (including MLB.com’s Jason Beck) with an update on right-hander Michael Fulmer, who is “on track” in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and “should be able to pitch in games sometime in July.” Fulmer underwent his procedure last March, so a July return would be slightly beyond the normal 12-15 month timeframe for TJ patients, though not by any unusual amount.
AL News & Rumors: Yanks, Gardner, Tigers, Chirinos, ChiSox, Rangers
Optimism continues to build regarding a potential agreement between the Yankees and free-agent outfielder Brett Gardner. The Yankees are “hopeful” they’ll finalize a contract soon, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds that the two sides are “far down the line” in negotiations. With center fielder Aaron Hicks set to miss a large portion of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and the Yankees having no established in-house replacements, the need for Gardner – the most accomplished CF option in free agency – is obvious. Although he’ll turn 37 years old in 2020, Gardner remains a valuable all-around contributor and a revered clubhouse presence.
Here’s more on New York and a few other AL clubs:
- The Yankees agreed to sign ace Gerrit Cole on Tuesday. Now they’re interested in free-agent catcher Martin Maldonado, who caught Cole 10 times last season in Houston, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. If he goes to the Yankees, Maldonado would presumably replace Austin Romine – who’s a free agent – and serve as a defensively gifted backup to slugging catcher Gary Sanchez.
- Fellow catcher Robinson Chirinos, who was teammates with Maldonado in Houston, has drawn widespread interest on the open market. The Rockies were already just put on the board along with the Rangers, Astros, Tigers, Rays, and Pirates. You can add the Tigers to the still-growing list of teams eyeing Chirinos, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. It’s no surprise Detroit’s in on Chirinos, as he may be the top catcher left and general manager Al Avila has made it known the team’s serious about finding an upgrade behind the plate.
- Any catcher the Tigers sign will be managed by Ron Gardenhire next season, but his future’s murkier thereafter. Gardenhire doesn’t have a contract for 2021, and it doesn’t sound as if he’ll be signing an extension this winter. The 62-year-old said Wednesday that he won’t discuss a new deal with Avila until after next season, per Jason Beck of MLB.com. It’s possible, though, that the Tigers will choose to go in another direction by then.
- Several teams have shown interest in free-agent outfielder Kole Calhoun, who hit the market when the Angels declined his pricey 2020 option after the season. It turns out the White Sox had been involved in the race, but they’re now out after acquiring fellow outfielder Nomar Mazara from Texas on Wednesday, according to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. Between Mazara and Eloy Jimenez, Chicago no longer has a need for a starting-caliber corner OFer.
- The Rangers acquired outfield prospect Steele Walker from Chicago in exchange for Mazara. One day into his tenure with the Rangers organization, Walker has garnered almost as many calls from interested teams as Mazara generated, according to general manager Jon Daniels (via Levi Weaver of The Athletic). However, Daniels added the Rangers do not intend to flip the 23-year-old Walker elsewhere.
White Sox Acquire Nomar Mazara
12:15am: Both teams have announced the trade.
11:05 pm: The Rangers and White Sox have agreed on a trade that will send outfielder Nomar Mazara to Chicago, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Outfielder Steele Walker is going to Texas in return, per MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter).
This move represents a bet on Mazara’s long-lauded talent for the South Siders, who’ll hope he can finally break out at the plate after languishing just shy of league average to this point of his career. Mazara is just 24 years of age but is already in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR projects a $5.7MM salary.
Mazara has received ample opportunity ever since breaking into the bigs in his age-21 campaign. But through more than two thousand plate appearances at the game’s highest level, he’s hitting just .261/.320/.435 with a steady diet of ~20 home run seasons. That’s certainly not what you’d like to see out of a corner outfielder who isn’t a standout in the field. Mazara has yet to reach 2 WAR for his career. If you’re looking for evidence that Mazara is about to hit his stride, his power did jump in 2019, with a .469 SLG and .200 ISO both career highs. As he approaches his age-25 seasons, there’s certainly time for another developmental leap.
The Chicago organization has announced its intentions to press towards contention in 2020, upping the stakes for this move. Mazara will presumably be asked to handle the lion’s share of the time in right field, joining Eloy Jimenez as a corner outfield regular. No doubt the front office has visions of a breakout, youthful trio emerging when Luis Robert is deemed ready to man center field. Leury Garcia could hold down center to open the season and then step back into a reserve role.
As for the 23-year-old Walker, he’s a recent second-round pick who reached the High-A level last year with the Chicago organization. The former Oklahoma University star slashed .269/.346/.426 in 441 plate appearances for Winston-Salem in 2019. Walker is viewed as a high-quality hitting prospect who has a shot at sticking up the middle. He’s generally considered one of the ten best prospects in a strong White Sox farm. Walker will begin the season in Double-A, per John Blake, the Rangers’ Executive VP of Communications.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rangers Exploring Outfield Trades, Pursuing Chirinos Reunion
8:58pm: The Cardinals are also in the mix for Mazara, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. That jibes with their goal of acquiring a lefty-hitting outfielder.
6:17pm: The White Sox are “working hard to land” Mazara, as Jim Bowden of SiriusXM first reported. As for Chirinos, the Astros, Tigers, Rays and Pirates join the Rangers in the market for him, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.
1:04pm: The Rangers have remained busy on the market, with MLB.com’s TR Sullivan reporting that the club is active on multiple fronts (Twitter links). While it stands to reason that the team is still considering moves in the rotation, the attention now is on the position player side after several notable pitching additions.
It has long seemed likely that the Rangers would explore possible swaps involving its existing outfielders. But the team now appears to be engaged in a somewhat dedicated manner. Sullivan says the intention is to “move one of their extra left-handed hitting outfielders,” with Nomar Mazara, Willie Calhoun, and Shin-Soo Choo named as possibilities.
That’s a highly varied group of players. Mazara is a mid-arbitration player that hasn’t turned the corner in the majors but remains quite youthful. Calhoun hasn’t had the same degree of opportunity (and hasn’t logged as much service) but showed well with the bat last year. He’s also still a question mark defensively, as is the aging Choo, who can still hit but isn’t worth the remainder of his big contract.
The Rangers are said to be chatting with the Diamondbacks about some of these players; the clubs were connected last night regarding Mazara. Evidently talks between the Rangers and Marlins didn’t advance. Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio tweets that the Fish were turned off by the asking price for Mazara, a former top prospect.
Meanwhile, there’s “mutual interest” in a new deal with backstop Robinson Chirinos. That’s rather an interesting development, considering the Texas organization surprisingly declined its option over him last fall. The replacement plan fell apart, as MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored, while Chirinos flourished with the cross-state Astros.
The 35-year-old Chirinos and the Rangers are amply familiar with one another, as he played with the team for six seasons. It seems the sides carry no ill will over the way things ended. The catching market has moved rather swiftly to this point, leaving Chirinos and Jason Castro as the top available options.
FA Rumors: Ozuna, Braves, J. Castro, Stammen, Peraza, Grandy
The Braves are interested in free-agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. This isn’t the first connection between the sides, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported last month that the Braves were one of the clubs in on Ozuna. Now, though, it seems the Braves are willing to aggressively pursue the 29-year-old qualifying offer recipient. In the event third baseman Josh Donaldson leaves Atlanta for another team, the Braves would regard Ozuna as a viable fallback option, Morosi suggests. MLBTR predicts Ozuna will reel in a three-year, $45MM guarantee, and if he lands anywhere near that neighborhood, he should fall well short of Donaldson’s next contract. That said, replacing Donaldson’s bat with Ozuna’s would still leave a sizable hole at third base for the Braves.
Here’s the latest on several other free agents…
- The Angels, Astros, and Rangers are among the organizations with interest in backstop Jason Castro, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). With Yasmani Grandal and Travis d’Arnaud off the market, the 32-year-old Castro could be the best catcher left on the board. The pitch-framing savant’s coming off a strong season in Minnesota, where he batted .232/.332/.435 in 275 plate appearances and earned positive grades in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.
- Several teams appear to be in the market for reliever Craig Stammen. The right-hander’s most recent team, the Padres, as well as the Astros, Diamondbacks, Reds, White Sox, Blue Jays and Cardinals have all expressed interest, per Morosi (Twitter links). Stammen, whom MLBTR projects for a two-year, $10MM guarantee, has put together a strong career divided between Washington and San Diego. The 35-year-old logged a 3.29 ERA with 8.01 K/9, 1.65 BB/9 and a 50.8 percent groundball rate in 82 innings last season as a Padre.
- The Reds are one of the teams with interest in Japanese center fielder Shogo Akiyama, president of baseball operations Dick Williams revealed (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Clubs have until Dec. 19 to sign Akiyama, who had an impressive run with the Seibu Lions from 2011-19. It’s unclear what a potential Reds-Akiyama union would mean for Nick Senzel, their starting center fielder last season. Senzel could perhaps move to the corner outfield, which does look like a need area for the Reds.
- The Cardinals are interested in re-signing backup catcher Matt Wieters, according to general manager Michael Girsch (via Goold). Whether it’s Wieters or someone else, the team seems intent on adding a veteran to play behind Yadier Molina. Wieters could wind up in Oakland if he doesn’t go back to St. Louis, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Athletics have shown interest in the 33-year-old to back up Sean Murphy. This is the second straight offseason in which Wieters has landed on the A’s radar.
- The Orioles and Indians are two of the four teams that have shown interest in infielder Jose Peraza, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The Reds non-tendered Peraza last week on the heels of an unproductive season, but he’s only a year removed from a respectable showing. The 25-year-old’s also controllable via arbitration through 2022.
- Although he hopes to play next season, there has been little interest in outfielder Curtis Granderson, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. The soon-to-be 39-year-old Granderson is a revered clubhouse presence who has enjoyed an outstanding career, but he’s a free agent at an inopportune time. Granderson struggled to a .183/.281/.356 line with minus-1.4 fWAR in 363 plate trips with the Marlins last season.
Winter Meetings Previews: Royals, White Sox
In advance of the winter meetings, let’s take a moment to quickly preview a couple teams from the American League Central…
- The Kansas City Royals will look for value buys on the free agent market, per Lynn Worthy of The Kansas City Star. Given the sale of the team and the managerial transition underway, the Royals have more justification than usual for patience this offseason. With Kansas City, however, there’s often a sense that internal valuations of the talent on hand differs from those of the general public. The Royals continue to present the idea that they are happy with their core, an impression bolstered by the “moon, sun, and stars” type packages the Royals are demanding for players like Whit Merrifield, Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy. Senior VP of Baseball Ops & GM Dayton Moore refined his fence-walking trick recently while saying both, “…we’re very encouraged with where we are based on how our players performed individually last year,” and also, “I think we’ve got to upgrade everywhere, really.” Pitching is definitely a target, and Moore has been active in trade discussions already, enough to have a sense of where trades might happen – though from Moore’s comments, it seems the Royals are disinclined to be major players on the trade market unless opposing GMs become more amenable to Moore’s ask(s). They do have four open spots on the 40-man roster and should be active in the Rule 5 draft, per The Athletic’s Alec Lewis.
- After being spurned by Zack Wheeler, the White Sox remain in the hunt for starting pitching, per MLB.com’s Scott Merkin. Chicago was also among the teams in on Jordan Lyles before the righty signed with the Rangers, tweets the MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Their rotation candidates are currently made up of high-ceiling but largely-unestablished youngsters, fronted by 2019 breakout superstar Lucas Giolito. Speculatively, Dallas Keuchel fits nicely from a culture perspective as the perennially-attention-starved White Sox have already added Yasmani Grandal from the nobody-believes-in-us free agent pool – and they like playing with a chip on their shoulder on the southside. As for position players, Chicago boasts close to a full house now that Grandal and Jose Abreu are officially on board. With prospects Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal expected to play a large portion of 2020 in the big leagues, they have one of the more intriguing groups on that side of the ball. Still, there’s definitely room to tinker around the edges, especially in the outfield, where Luis Alexander Basabe, Daniel Palka, Leury Garcia, Adam Engel, and Luis Gonzalez make up the flexible collection of candidates to join Eloy Jimenez and Robert in the outfield.
White Sox, Blue Jays, Brewers, Twins Among Runners-Up For Jordan Lyles
Before Jordan Lyles signed his two-year, $16MM deal to join the Texas Rangers rotation, there was no shortage of interest in the big righty. Though we don’t know which (if any) of these teams made official offers, we do know that the White Sox, Blue Jays, Brewers and Twins were among the teams with interest, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Without financial specifics, it’s presumptuous to assume much in regards to the interest level of these four clubs, but the size of the contract inked by Lyles at least hints at a low-scale bidding war for the back-end rotation arm.
The Brewers interest is not surprising, given they acquired Lyles around the deadline in each of the past two seasons and he pitched to a 2.45 ERA (4.42 FIP) to close out 2019. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel points out that the Brewers have now lost the bidding on each of their free agent targets thus far (except Justin Grimm!), suggesting either limited payroll flexibility or disciplined judiciousness on the part of GM David Stearns. Of course, Lyles signed for more than most would have guessed, and Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas signed for a combined 8-years, $137MM, a stratum the Brewers were hardly expected to reach. On the plus side, should the Rangers scuffle and Brewers stay in the race, we could see the rare baseball trade turkey, when a team successfully strikes for the same player at the deadline for three consecutive seasons.
The Twins and White Sox are two of the more eager starting pitching hunters this offseason, so their inclusion on this list is no surprise either. Both teams are likely to sign a couple of veteran free agents before the winter is out. As for the Blue Jays, they have less urgency given their timeline, though Lyles certainly fits the mold of the type of free agent they are likely to target.
White Sox Claim Tayron Guerrero
The White Sox have claimed righty Tayron Guerrero off waivers from the Marlins, per a club announcement. He had been designated for assignment on non-tender day to clear roster space.
Guerrero pumps 99 and increasingly proved capable last year of drawing swings and misses (13.3%) while also getting his first pitches over for strikes (63.4%). But he hasn’t yet figured out how to consistently convert his physical tools into big-league outs.
Last year, Guerrero averaged over seven walks per nine innings to go with 8.4 K/9 and an ugly 6.26 ERA. Perhaps the Chicago organization has mechanical or pitch usage ideas to help the towering hurler as he moves from South Beach to the South Side.