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Nick Senzel Done For Season Due To Torn Right Labrum

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Nick Senzel’s season is over, as the Reds outfielder has suffered a torn right labrum, The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans reports (Twitter link).  Senzel has missed four of Cincinnati’s last seven games due to the shoulder injury, and only took one plate appearances over the other three games.

Senzel will finish with a .256/.315/.427 slash line and 12 homers over 414 plate appearances, while also stealing 14 bases in 19 chances.  With only an 89 OPS+ and wRC+, it wasn’t quite the big breakout the Reds and their fans were hoping for from one of the game’s top prospects, though it’s worth noting that a sprained ankle suffered late in Spring Training kept Senzel from taking the field until April 23, and delayed his Major League debut until May 3.

Perhaps most troublingly, the 24-year-old is already amassing a rather lengthy injury history just four years into his pro career.  Senzel played just 44 total games (all at Triple-A) in 2018 due to a broken finger and a bout of vertigo, which also cost him time in 2017.  The Reds were going to send Senzel to the Arizona Fall League for more seasoning, only to drop those plans when elbow surgery sidelined him for much of October and November of last year.

Through it all, Senzel also had to take on a brand-new position, as Cincinnati shifted him into center field duty.  Since he’d never played center field prior to 2019, Senzel’s slightly below-average defensive metrics (-2.1 UZR/150 and -1 Defensive Run Saved) are actually more than respectable.  It seems likely that the Reds will continue to use Senzel in center going forward, though now that Scooter Gennett is no longer in the picture, one wonders if the club would consider having Senzel split time between both second base and center field.  Senzel’s original third base position, of course, is blocked by slugger Eugenio Suarez.

It isn’t known if Senzel will require shoulder surgery, though president of baseball operations Dick Williams suggested Thursday that Senzel could be ready for Spring Training either way (link via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com).

Selected as the second overall pick in the 2016 draft, Senzel’s hitting ability has been highly regarded since his days at the University of Tennessee.  Senzel hit .312/.388/.508 with 28 home runs over 1028 PA in the minors, including an .853 OPS over 231 PA at the Triple-A level.

Giants Claim Wandy Peralta

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The Giants have claimed left-handed pitcher Wandy Peralta off waivers from the Reds, according to C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. He’ll report to his new club on Monday, tweets Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic, adding that the Giants have placed infielder Zach Green on the 60-day injured list thanks to a hip impingement.

Peralta has thrown 34 innings for the Reds this year, striking out 27 batters and walking 15 en route to a 6.09 ERA. He hasn’t been able to duplicate the success he generated in 2017, but he’ll have a chance for a change of scenery as he joins the stable of Giants relievers for a September tryout.

Latest On Jeremy Jeffress

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Right-hander Jeremy Jeffress, officially released by the Brewers yesterday, has drawn some level of interest from several teams, tweets Yahoo’s Matt Ehalt. The Reds, Mets, Phillies, Rays and even the Brewers are among the teams who’ve inquired about the 2018 All-Star.

Jeffress isn’t postseason eligible, having been cut loose in September, but some of the interested teams would apparently like to proactively lock him up to a deal that covers the 2020 campaign (perhaps via a club option). That’d help to explain Milwaukee’s reported interest in bringing the righty back; the Brewers clearly had no intention of exercising Jeffress preexisting $4.3MM option for the 2020 season, but they (or another suitor) could conceivably try to hammer out an option at a lower base salary with some additional incentives. Any team signing Jeffress would only owe him the prorated league minimum for the remainder of the current season.

It’s also possible, though, that Jeffress could simply sit out the remainder of the season and explore opportunities this winter. He was on the injured list due to a hip ailment at the time of his release, and there’d surely be some benefit to an extended period of rest for the righty. He’ll likely have offseason minor league offers with decent base salaries (though less than the previous $4.3MM) at the very least, meaning there’s no rush to sign at the moment. There’ll surely be teams who are only interested in adding him after the current season draws to a close, so waiting until November to take a deal would widen his market.

Open-market circumstances surrounding Jeffress will always be somewhat atypical, given the right-hander’s history. He’s served multiple minor league suspensions for drugs of abuse (i.e. marijuana) and was charged with a DWI while pitching for the Rangers in 2016. That track record surely contributed to the club-friendly deal Jeffress signed with Milwaukee prior to the 2018 season, which came with two team options at relatively low base rates and plenty of yearly incentives based on innings pitched and games finished.

Jeffress’ release earlier this week marked the end of a radical downturn in performance. The right-hander logged a 1.29 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.59 HR/9 and a 56.4 percent ground-ball rate in last year’s All-Star season before unraveling in the playoffs. He then missed the first several weeks of the 2019 season due to shoulder fatigue.

Upon activation in mid-April, Jeffress pitched well for two months, logging a 2.52 ERA and a 26-to-9 K/BB ratio through his first 22 appearances (25 innings). Since that time, he’s scuffled with an ERA north of 7.00 and a deflated strikeout rate. Jeffress’ velocity has actually improved a bit as he’s distanced himself from the early shoulder fatigue, but the aforementioned hip ailment has added another injury to the ledger. In all, he’s turned in 52 innings with a 5.02 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.00 HR/9 and a 48.4 percent ground-ball rate while enduring a pair of IL stints in 2019. The upside a healthy Jeffress brings to the table is enormous, but he’s struggled to produce consistent results over the past three seasons.

Early Trade Deadline Re-Assessment: NL Central

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It has only been four weeks, so it’s too soon to judge with finality how this year’s trade deadline maneuvers will play out. That said, we’re already half of the way through the period — the regular season portion, at least — for which rental players were acquired. Even players with future control are usually added first and foremost for their immediate contributions (though there are some exceptions). It’d be awfully premature to say anything conclusive about the prospect side of any deals, but we do now have some additional information with which to work.

So, that’s why we’re going to take a glance back over our shoulders at the moves (and major non-moves) that organizations made in the run-up to this year’s trade deadline. We already covered the AL Central; now we’ll go over to the National League’s middle division.

Cardinals

When the Cards dropped five of six games after the trade deadline, it looked as if they may be on the brink of a collapse. But the club recovered with a stirring, 19-5 run. So … what caused it? A big deadline blockbuster? Multiple, well-conceived additions? Not so much.

The only move the Cards made this summer was a roster-management swap in which they sent veteran infielder Jedd Gyorko to the Dodgers. He’s playing a limited role in L.A. and hasn’t yet done anything of note. Back in St. Louis, the Cards remain laden with position-player options. A deep September roster will help the club mix and match down the stretch, though cramming talent onto a postseason roster will be more difficult.

When the Cards held pat at the deadline, it was fair to wonder whether the team’s uncertain place in the standings was a significant factor. Now, there’s little question that the club has the inside track to a divisional appearance, if not more. It was arguable at the time that the club ought to cash in some of its many solid young assets in pursuit of a higher-end starter or center fielder. So far, the decision not to do so hasn’t hurt (far from it). We’ll see how it plays out over the final month and beyond.

Cubs

The Cubbies’ biggest mid-season acquisition came not via trade, but by way of signing. But closer Craig Kimbrel hasn’t had the biggest impact. That honor would go to outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, who burst to life after being sent to Chicago. He carries a 1.060 OPS through thirty games. The move did cost two pitchers (Paul Richan and Alex Lange) that now feature among the top thirty or so Tigers farmhands. The former has shown well since the deal, carrying a 29:2 K/BB ratio over five High-A starts.

Also more helpful to this point than Kimbrel is veteran reliever David Phelps, who has been excellent since coming over. He has allowed just two earned runs in 13 appearances. That deal could still cost in the long run. It cost the Cubbies Tom Hatch, a Double-A starter who has compiled 35 1/3 innings of 2.80 ERA pitching with an intriguing 34:2 K/BB ratio since the swap.

A low-risk shot on Derek Holland hasn’t really paid dividends, as he wasn’t terribly effective before hitting the injured list. But he could still return and provide an important pen presence late in the season. Brad Wieck, acquired when the club gave up on Carl Edwards Jr., has added a bit of lefty relief depth. Edwards was knocked around before hitting the IL, so there aren’t any regrets there.

There was also a sort of hot-stove miniseries regarding the Cubs catching situation. The team added Martin Maldonado but then sent him on to the Astros for Tony Kemp. When starter Willson Contreras went down with a significant injury, the club picked up Jonathan Lucroy. The club was simply acting on the needs it had before it, but this series of moves hasn’t really worked out. Maldonado would be preferable to Lucroy at this stage of their respective careers; Kemp has struggled badly at the plate and doesn’t seem all that necessary to a roster with a wide variety of infield/outfield-capable players.

While the Cubs are now staring at a three-game deficit in the NL Central, they’ve moved into strong Wild Card position. It’s hard to say they realistically could or should have done much more at the deadline.

Brewers

The Milwaukee org has fallen off the pace since the deadline, playing sub-.500 ball over the month of August. That drop coincided with the rise of the Redbirds … in spite of the fact that the Brew Crew front office was far more active on the trade market — and generally successful in unearthing value.

Adding Jordan Lyles, at the cost of pitching prospect Cody Ponce, has been a clear win to this point. The 28-year-old Lyles has a 2.51 ERA through six starts in Milwaukee. Ponce, a former second-round pick, could yet emerge but hasn’t done anything since the deal to suggest the Brewers made a big mistake by parting with him.

Improving the bullpen was also a key need and the Brewers accomplished that in their swap with the Giants. Lefty Drew Pomeranz has turned on the afterburners of late. Overall, he has allowed just four earned runs with a 22:7 K/BB ratio over 13 2/3 innings. Righty Ray Black has just two strikeouts in his 6 2/3 innings but has managed to keep opponents to just a pair of earned runs. It’ll be interesting to see whether former top prospect Mauricio Dubon makes the Milwaukee org pay for parting with him. He’d likely be playing a significant role there with Keston Hiura injured; instead, he’s getting a full MLB showcase with the Giants.

The Brewers’ other trade hasn’t yet added value but also hasn’t hurt much. Though Jesus Aguilar started out hot after the Brewers sent him to the Rays, he has fallen back to an unremarkable .279/.351/.412 overall slash with his new club. The hurler acquired in return, Jake Faria, has been knocked around a bit in three MLB appearances.

Reds

The Cincinnati front office turned in what was arguably the most interesting overall package of deadline moves. With only an outside chance at a postseason run this season, but a keen desire to contend as soon as possible, the focus was on the near-future.

First and foremost was the surprising move to bring in veteran righty Trevor Bauer. After picking up multiple short-term starters in the prior offseason, the Reds were in need of another reload entering 2020. In that respect, going for Bauer made for an early shopping trip. He has struggled quite a bit working to an 8.40 ERA in thirty innings, though he’s still sporting a 37:13 K/BB ratio. It just hasn’t been a great follow-up season for a pitcher who landed sixth in the Cy Young voting last year. The Reds are betting he’ll figure out how to return to dominance over the offseason.

The cost for Bauer was fairly steep. Outfielder Yasiel Puig is a pending free agent, but he could’ve been cashed in otherwise. Top prospect Taylor Trammell isn’t tearing up Double-A with the Padres organization, but remains a highly regarded player. And then there’s the other, least-known aspect of the swap. Lefty Scott Moss was pitching well before the swap but has impressed all the more since. He even overcame the treacherous International League in a late stint, allowing just four earned runs on a dozen hits with 23 strikeouts and eight walks in 18 2/3 innings.

Having picked up Bauer, the Reds proceeded to ship out pending free agent starter Tanner Roark. That helped cover the late-2019 salary of the new rotation piece and also landed the team a new prospect in recent second-round pick Jameson Hannah. Unfortunately, it hasn’t been a shining season thus far for Hannah, who struggled to a .224/.325/.299 slash in 78 plate appearances after the deal.

Otherwise, the Reds don’t regret dumping Scooter Gennett, whose feel-good tenure in Cincinnati ended in bitterness. He didn’t last long in San Francisco. The club added righty Justin Grimm for depth, but he hasn’t been called upon.

Pirates

The Pirates were within 2.5 games of the division lead as late as July 7th, but it has been an unmitigated disaster ever since. It was already clear that this wasn’t going to be the team’s year by the time the deadline hit, but that didn’t set the stage for a sell-off.

The deadline period ended up being rather quiet. After the aforementioned Lyles deal, the Pirates swapped Corey Dickerson to the Phillies for some international bonus capacity and a PTBNL. Something may ultimately come of the acquired assets — Ponce seems like a good bet to appear in the majors at some point — but it was hardly a moment of note.

It could’ve been different. The Pirates discussed Felipe Vazquez with the Dodgers and could’ve come away with some serious talent for the high-end reliever. The club also could’ve held trade talks on Starling Marte, Josh Bell, or others. But it’s also plenty understandable that the organization decided against rushing into a decision on such significant assets. The pressure of the deadline might’ve spiked Vazquez’s value, but it could also be that the Bucs can get as much or more by shopping him over the winter (if they decide to do so at all). There’s always injury risk, but he has only continued to excel. While there is an argument to be made that the organization ought to pursue a different direction after another disappointing season, the club still has every opportunity to do so after holding tight this summer.

NL Central Notes: Jeffress, Kela, Baez, Darvish, Suarez, Reds

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The Brewers released Jeremy Jeffress today, but before parting ways with the former All-Star, Milwaukee tried shopping the reliever within the NL Central.  The Athletic’s Robert Murray reported back in July that the Brewers and Pirates were discussing a trade that involved Keone Kela, and Murray reports today that a Jeffress-for-Kela swap was floated between the division rivals, though “talks never gained traction.”

While the Bucs were (and possibly still are) open to moving Kela in trade negotiations, the controversial right-hander isn’t necessarily a totally expendable piece for the Pirates, whereas Jeffress was clearly no longer in Milwaukee’s plans, as GM David Stearns indicated today to Murray and other reporters.  While Stearns left the door open for a potential reunion with Jeffress down the road, the reliever was hampered by a lack of trust in his splitter and a loss of velocity, possibly due to a heavy workload in 2018 or a shoulder injury that sidelined him for most of Spring Training.  “I think his arsenal changed this year.  That’s something that’s been well documented, not only with the fastball velocity but with the loss of a pitch that had become extremely important in his repertoire,” Stearns said.  “When you lose a pitch, you have to become a different pitcher and it’s certainly possible that Jeremy can become a different pitcher and be effective. We just didn’t see it consistently enough to count on him at any point this year.”

Here’s more from around the NL Central…

  • The Cubs received a twin dose of injury scares on Sunday when Yu Darvish was scratched from his start due to right forearm tightness.  In that same game, Javier Baez suffered a sore neck and a jammed left thumb after sliding into Orlando Arcia’s knee during a third-inning steal of second base.  Baez stayed in the game before being removed in the seventh, and while he may miss a game or two, x-rays were negative on his hand and the shortstop expects to be fine.  Darvish’s injury is more ominous, particularly since the righty has been dealing with the issue for his last five outings, as pitching coach Tommy Hottovy and manager Joe Maddon told reporters (including MLB.com’s Russell Dorsey).  Despite the late scratch, Maddon thinks Darvish will be ready to make his next turn in the rotation.  Needless to say, the Cubs can’t afford to lose any key contributors given the tight status of both the NL Central and NL wild card races.
  • Eugenio Suarez left the Reds’ 5-3 win over the Cardinals tonight after being hit on the left hand during a fifth inning plate appearance.  Suarez will be evaluated tomorrow after the swelling subsides.  The third baseman has continued to be an offensive force for the Reds (.261/.342/.546 with 40 home runs in 568 plate appearances) despite a worrying spike in swing-and-miss, as Suarez has a league-high 161 strikeouts.
  • The Reds’ pitching has gone from a major weakness in 2018 to a strength in 2019, and while some new acquisitions like Sonny Gray and (the since-traded) Tanner Roark played a part in that improvement, Cincinnati’s biggest addition might have been pitching coach Derek Johnson.  C. Trent Rosecrans and Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required) break down how several of the Reds’ arms have changed their tactics from last season now that they’re under Johnson’s tutelage.

Reds Release Ryan Lavarnway

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The Reds have released catcher Ryan Lavarnway, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. Lavarnway had been with the organization since signing a minor league contract July 18 – the same day the Yankees released him.

Now 32 years old, Lavarnway came through the ranks as a high-end prospect for the Red Sox, who grabbed him in the sixth round of the 2008 draft. Lavarnway hasn’t matched the hype he garnered during his younger days, though, and has been a member of several organizations as a result. Along with Boston and Cincinnati, Lavarnway has appeared at the major league level with Baltimore, Atlanta, Oakland and Pittsburgh, combining for a nonthreatening .211/.270/.343 line with nine home runs in 445 plate appearances.

The Reds actually received impressive production from Lavarnway, albeit over only 19 trips to the plate, as he collected five hits and a pair of homers in their uniform. But Lavarnway never seemed likely to stick for long in Cincinnati, as he came up just to fill in for then-injured catchers Tucker Barnhart, Curt Casali and Kyle Farmer. The club deemed Lavarnway expendable when it designated him for assignment to clear room for Farmer activation’s from the injured list on July 28. Lavarnway then wound up spending a few weeks with the Reds’ Triple-A team in Louisville, where he hit .225/.319/.500 and totaled three long balls in 47 PA.

Reds Release Rob Refsnyder

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The Reds have released utilityman Rob Refsnyder, per the International League’s transactions page. Refsnyder had been with the organization since it acquired him from the Diamondbacks on April 7.

Prior to his exit from the Reds, Refsnyder was a clear bright spot for their last-place Triple-A team in Louisville. The 28-year-old went to the plate 334 times as a member of the club and slashed .315/.377/.500 with 10 home runs. Even in the offense-happy International League environment, Refsnyder’s production was 25 percent better than average, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric.

Solid Triple-A numbers aren’t anything new for Refsnyder, he of the .296/.372/.436 line with 35 HRs in 1,804 PA at that level. On the other hand, major league success has eluded the once-promising prospect, whom the Yankees chose in the fifth round of the 2012 draft. Across a combined 423 trips to the plate in MLB as a Yankee, Blue Jay and Ray from 2015-18, Refsnyder only managed to bat .218/.308/.302 with four homers.

Reds Release Brad Boxberger

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The Reds have released right-handed reliever Brad Boxberger, Kegan Lowe of Baseball America relays.

The reunion between the Reds and Boxberger didn’t last long, as they just signed the 31-year-old to a minor league contract Aug. 6. It was the second stint with the Reds for Boxberger, whom the club spent the 43rd overall pick on back in 2009. The Reds ultimately traded Boxberger to the Padres two years later in a blockbuster that included several players who either were or have become household names.

To his credit, Boxberger has turned into a well-known commodity in his own right over the past several years. He made the American League All-Star team as a member of the Rays in 2015, the same year he led the AL in saves (41). But Boxberger’s effectiveness has waned since his final season with the Rays in 2017. He struggled a year ago as a member of the Diamondbacks, and after signing a $2.2MM contract with the Royals over the winter, Boxberger opened 2019 with a 5.40 ERA/4.67 FIP and 9.11 K/9 against 5.74 BB/9 over 26 2/3 innings.

The Royals released Boxberger in early July, after which he inked a minors pact with the Nationals’ Double-A club. The Nats quickly cut Boxberger loose, leading him to rejoni the Cincy organization. However, Boxberger had immense difficulty in 5 1/3 frames with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate, yielding seven earned runs on 10 hits and five walks (with eight strikeouts).

NL Notes: Votto, Franchy, Doolittle

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Reds legend Joey Votto will be eligible to return from the injured list on Sunday, but it appears that the plate discipline devotee will need at least a few more days before resuming his role as the elder statesman on the Cincy lineup card. “He’s making a lot of progress,” manager David Bell told Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. “Still no date. I know he’s eligible tomorrow. That won’t happen. Maybe not too far behind.”

Votto did some on-field work in rehab for his lower back injury on Friday. Cincinnati has around a 1% chance of reaching the playoffs this year on the strength of a 60-67 record entering Saturday, so Votto’s return will likely be mostly about gaining a little feel-good momentum entering 2020–a year in which the Reds expect to compete, as evidenced by their deadline acquisition of ace Trevor Bauer.

More jottings from around the National League this weekend…

  • For Padres fans suffering through their 13th-consecutive season without a playoff appearance, there has been no greater “what if” story in recent years than the continued tease offered by outfielder Franchy Cordero. Long noted for his prodigious raw power and tantalizing athletic gifts, Cordero’s path toward center field playing time has been submarined by repeated injury–an unfortunate circumstance given the recent-year struggles of center fielders Wil Myers and Manuel Margot. Now, as noted in a tweet from MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell, Cordero is back on the rehab trail. While it was a wonky elbow that sidelined Cordero for most of 2018 and the beginning of this year, it was a hurt quad that has delayed his rehab for the last two months. Saturday marked Cordero’s first game in the resumption of his rehabilitative assignment, as the outfielder appeared at DH in the Arizona League. Manager Andy Green, however, has apparently learned to be cautiously optimistic in regard to Franchy’s injuries–with the key word being “cautiously”. “He’s on the path toward returning,” Green said. “It’s not a short path, though.”
  • Mark Zuckerman of MASN provides partial updates on Nationals arms Roenis Elias and Sean Doolittle, saying that Elias is “heading in the right direction” and that Doolittle should be ready for activation when his IL stint is up on August 28th (Twitter link). Does it even bear repeating that the Nats are in need of as much pitching help as they can get? Elias, for his part, appeared in just one D.C. game before being felled by injury. Between Seattle and Washington this year, the veteran has a 3.59 ERA through 47.2 relief innings, although his 4.68 xFIP indicates that he should be due for some bad luck regression if he does indeed make it back soon. Doolittle, for his part, has been the subject of a great deal of armchair psychology in recent weeks, as a rough stretch of play (10 earned runs in his last 5 appearances) culminated in his placement on the 10-day injured list with a knee injury. Nats relievers have amassed a 6.00 ERA on the year.

Reds Activate Tyler Mahle, Place Jesse Winker On IL

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The Reds have activated right-hander Tyler Mahle from the injured list and sent outfielder Jesse Winker to the IL (retroactive to Monday) with a cervical strain, the team announced. Mahle will head to Triple-A Louisville.

Mahle missed just over a month with a hamstring injury. Prior to that, the 24-year-old gave the Reds 102 1/3 innings and 19 starts of 4.93 ERA/4.31 FIP ball. Those numbers don’t look impressive, though Mahle also recorded 9.32 K/9 against 2.29 BB/9 and posted a solid 45.6 percent groundball rate at the same time. He’ll hope that production, not to mention whatever he does the rest of the season (if he returns to the Reds), will help him earn a place in the club’s rotation next year. The group figures to welcome back Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani then, while Kevin Gausman could join Mahle in pushing for the last spot.

Winker, meanwhile, represents another of Cincinnati’s promising young players. In his most extensive big league action to date, the 26-year-old has slashed .269/.357/.473 (113 wRC+) with 16 home runs, 38 unintentional walks and 60 strikeouts over 384 plate appearances this season. The lefty-swinging Winker hasn’t been a legitimate option this year versus southpaws, though, as he has hit just .163/.280/.163 against them in 50 PA.

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