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Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds recently wrapped up a 75-win season, their sixth consecutive sub-.500 campaign. President of baseball operations Dick Williams and general manager Nick Krall have seen enough. They have every intention of assembling a playoff-caliber roster for 2020.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Most of the Reds’ focus last offseason went to their starting staff, and two of the three key acquisitions they made in that regard couldn’t have worked out much better. Picking up Sonny Gray from the Yankees has been a brilliant move thus far. Tanner Roark, whom the Reds landed in a trade with the Nationals, was effective for Cincinnati for a few months before the out-of-contention club flipped him to Oakland in July. Alex Wood wasn’t healthy enough to pitch for most of the season, so acquiring him from the Dodgers was the one starting addition that didn’t work out for Williams and Krall. But the two front office bigwigs swung a massive trade for then-Indian Trevor Bauer prior to the July 31 deadline, meaning the Reds are now slated to get a full year from him alongside Gray, Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani. It’s unclear who will primarily occupy the last spot on Cincy’s staff (perhaps Wood or another free agent on a one-year deal), but it’s obvious the rotation is no longer a major concern for the club.

The Reds’ main problem at the moment seems to be their offense, which finished 25th in the majors in both runs and wRC+ this year. Although he surprisingly struggled this season, first baseman Joey Votto isn’t going anywhere. Neither is third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who fell one home run shy of the 50 mark.

Aside from Votto and Suarez, the Reds’ position player cast certainly isn’t etched in stone. Nick Senzel will also start somewhere, whether it’s second or center field (where he played in 2019), and his flexibility will afford the Reds the opportunity to shop for help at either of those spots. The upcoming class of free-agent center fielders looks quite weak, however, so unless the Reds swing a trade for someone like Starling Marte of the Pirates or Jackie Bradley Jr. of the Red Sox, odds are they’ll be adding second base help over center field aid. Fortunately for Cincy, free agency will be teeming with passable second basemen once the offseason rolls around. Of course, we’d be remiss to ignore that the Reds have a few in-house second base possibilities besides Senzel. Jose Peraza, Derek Dietrich and Freddy Galvis led the club’s second basemen in starts this year, and all are controllable through next season. However, Peraza and Dietrich look like possible non-tender candidates, while Galvis has a $5.5MM option or a $1MM buyout for 2020. Even if the Reds keep Galvis, his track record indicates he wouldn’t make for more than a mediocre-at-best starter at either second or shortstop.

Short, like second, appears to be a position the Reds could give some attention in the coming months. The trouble is that free agency won’t be loaded with obvious solutions there. Jose Iglesias, who started the vast majority of the Reds’ season at the position, is due to hit free agency. The Reds could easily re-sign the defensively adept, light-hitting Iglesias for what surely wouldn’t be a sizable sum, but they’d be wise to hunt for a better alternative first. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Reds seek a reunion with Yankees free agent-to-be Didi Gregorius, whom Cincy signed as an international free agent back in 2007. Otherwise, would the Reds pursue a trade for the Indians’ Francisco Lindor or the Rockies’ Trevor Story? They’re a pair of star shortstops who are likely to come up in trade rumors during the next few months (the speculation has already started in regards to Lindor).

While the Reds could rekindle their relationship with Gregorius, the same holds true for pending free-agent catcher Yasmani Grandal. Clearly the premier catcher set to hit the market in the next couple weeks, the Brewers’ Grandal was the 12th overall pick of the Reds back in 2010. Grandal never wound up playing a game for the Reds, but he’d be a massive upgrade now over the combination of Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali. That said, signing the soon-to-be 31-year-old Grandal at this point would likely mean forking over $60MM or more in guarantees. If the Reds aren’t willing to go that far, and if they do try to add a somewhat high-profile backstop to upgrade over Barnhart, they could wind up with anyone from the affordable trio of Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud or Robinson Chirinos in free agency.

The way the Reds map out their 2020 outfield will depend in part on their plans for Senzel. As mentioned earlier, though, finding an obvious center field upgrade in free agency will be difficult. It’ll be less of an arduous task in the corner outfield, where ex-Red Yasiel Puig, Marcell Ozuna, Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia and Corey Dickerson are all on the cusp of becoming free agents. The Reds traded Puig in July as part of the Bauer deal, though Krall expressed interest in a Puig extension shortly before that.

Whether the Reds bring back Puig or find one or two players from the outside, their corner outfield does look as if it should be a priority. Cincinnati has in-house possibilities in Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino, Phillip Ervin and Josh VanMeter, granted. However, they all come with warts. The left-handed Winker was just about unplayable this year versus same-handed pitchers; Aquino came back to reality after a historically remarkable start; Ervin’s decent overall numbers were buoyed by an unsustainable first few months; and VanMeter didn’t produce much outside of a red-hot July.

Meanwhile, the Reds’ bullpen seems to be much less of an issue than their outfield, though it’s still an area they (like just about every other team) could attempt to improve.. Raisel Iglesias has been a prime trade candidate in the past, but if Cincy’s as bent on pushing for a playoff spot next year as it has indicated, he seems unlikely to go anywhere this winter. So, he’ll stay a key member of a unit that will also welcome back Amir Garrett, Michael Lorenzen, Robert Stephenson and Matt Bowman, while Cody Reed, Lucas Sims and Joel Kuhnel could also be among in-house arms pushing for innings. Kevin Gausman, whom the Reds claimed from the Braves in August, may be a part of the unit again, too (or even vie for the Reds’ fifth starter job); however, considering his lofty arbitration projection for 2020, it seems more likely the Reds will non-tender Gausman.

Deciding Gausman’s future is one of the more immediate tasks on the Reds’ plate as the offseason nears its official start. If the Reds do let Gausman go, it’ll further increase spending space for a team that’s all but guaranteed to boast a franchise-record payroll in 2020. The Reds opened this season with an outlay just over $126.6MM, and Williams has said that number will go up next year as the club tries to bring an end to its long-running playoff drought.

“The goal for us now, all we’re talking about is the postseason. That’s what matters,” Williams declared a few weeks ago. “That’s the goal next year. It’s not taking incremental steps in a rebuild. It’s about the postseason.”

Judging by the Reds’ win-now attitude, they could be among the majors’ busiest teams during the upcoming offseason.

Reds Name Alan Zinter Hitting Coach

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It appears that major league front offices are taking Thursday as their opportunity to announce new coaching hires, as the Reds have announced the installment of Alan Zinter as the club’s new hitting coach and the promotion of Donnie Ecker to an assistant hitting coach and director of hitting role.

This announcement won’t carry the same impact of the managerial hires reported around the game today, but Zinter’s hire could still prove crucial for a club looking to get over the hump in 2020. A former hitting coach with the Padres, Zinter has been working in player development for the last two years in the Giants organization. Turner Ward, the club’s former hitting instructor, was relieved of duty earlier this month after one season in Cincy.

Zinter will inherit from Ward one of the game’s bottom-half offenses. The club’s 2019 cumulative 87 wRC+ figure–which accounts for park factors–placed Cincinnati 26th among major league teams last year. Though they did unlock a massive breakout from Eugenio Suarez and a nice half-season from Aristides Aquino, the Reds coaching staff received disappointing seasons from the since-departed Yasiel Puig and cornerstone Joey Votto. If hitting is the archetype of the inexact sciences, then Zinter and Ecker will be tasked with undertaking some bold experiments in 2020 to tap into the potential of a largely stagnant group of Reds hitters.

Position Players Recently Electing Free Agency

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Since the conclusion of the regular season, a number of players have elected free agency. That right accrues to certain players who are outrighted off of a 40-man roster during or after the season — namely, those that have at least three years of MLB service and/or have previously been outrighted. Such players that accepted outright assignments during the season have the right to elect free agency instead at season’s end, provided they aren’t added back to the 40-man in the meantime.

Here are the position players that have recently taken to the open market, along with their now-former teams (via the International League and PCL transactions pages):

Quick Hits: Hicks, Didi, Bradley, Nats

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As baseball takes a break until Tuesday night, we’ll touch on a few items pertaining to the upcoming offseason and looking back at how last offseason laid the foundation for where we stand.

  • Aaron Hicks made a remarkable return to action in the ALCS after sitting out over two months with a flexor strain in his right elbow. We knew at the time that Tommy John Surgery was in consideration for the 30-year-old, and with the season now over, Hicks admits it was actually recommended by renowned orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (via Twitter). Hicks reiterated last night he believes he’ll avert the operation given the progress he’s made with less drastic rehabilitation methods. Hicks, who signed a seven-year extension entering the season, is surely an integral part of the Bombers’ plans moving forward.
  • It’s less clear if Didi Gregorius is part of the team’s future, but the five-year Yankee tells reporters, including James Wagner of the New York Times (Twitter link), he’d like to return to the Bronx. The 29-year-old is ticketed for free agency, where he profiles as the top shortstop option on the market. Gregorius didn’t play in the majors this season until June 7 owing to a Tommy John of his own, and he never got on track offensively, slashing .238/.276/.441 (84 wRC+) in 344 plate appearances. Nevertheless, Gregorius’ pre-2019 track record, age, and the scarcity of shortstops available in free agency make him a reasonable qualifying offer candidate. With a glut of infielders on hand, among them former shortstop prospect Gleyber Torres, Brian Cashman’s front office will have some tough decisions sorting out the infield mix this winter.
  • The Reds discussed Jackie Bradley, Jr. with the Red Sox last offseason, relays the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale. While there’s no indication talks progressed very far or have picked up since, it’s still noteworthy to hear Cincinnati’s front office liked the player not too long ago. Bradley’s one of the offseason’s most obvious trade candidates, as we’ve already heard rumblings Boston would shop him this winter to ameliorate payroll concerns. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently explored Bradley’s market in full and noted that the Reds have some uncertainty in center field if they believe Nick Senzel to be more valuable at second base. Bradley didn’t have a banner 2019 season and comes with a rather significant arbitration projection ($11MM), but the free agent market in center field isn’t particularly robust.
  • The Nationals aren’t turning their attention to next spring just yet. As the team gears up for a World Series showdown with the Astros, the Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli looks back to the organization’s roster construction work last winter. General Manager Mike Rizzo was aggressive early in free agency, re-signing Kurt Suzuki and bringing aboard Patrick Corbin and Brian Dozier. A willingness to dangle a sixth year was perhaps the driving factor in getting Corbin (the Phillies and Yankees stopped at five), the prize of last offseason’s pitching market. That said, Rizzo’s forthrightness in negotiations certainly didn’t hurt, Corbin explains, and Dozier tells Ghiroli he declined more lucrative offers elsewhere out of a belief in what the Nats were building. It’s a worthwhile read for Nationals’ fans soaking up the enjoyment of the franchise’s first pennant.

Reds Outright Juan Graterol

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The Reds announced Friday that catcher Juan Graterol cleared waivers after being designated for assignment this week and has been sent outright to Triple-A Louisville. A a player who’s previously been outrighted, Graterol will have the opportunity to elect free agency, which seems likely with the offseason on the horizon.

Graterol, 30, appeared in six games with Cincinnati this season and tallied four singles in 18 trips to the plate. He’s played sparingly in several big league stints across the past four seasons, compiling a .218/.227/.266 line in 129 plate appearances between the Angels, Twins and Reds. He’s also spent parts of six seasons in Triple-A, where he’s a career .277/.313/.340 hitter.

While he’s not much of a threat at the plate, Graterol has been a plus framer, pitch blocker and thrower both in the upper minors and in the Majors. He boasts a 32 percent caught-stealing rate in the big leagues and a hefty 38 percent mark in parts of 14 minor league seasons. He’ll presumably draw interest among teams eyeing catching depth in the upper minors this winter, likely landing a minor league deal and an invite to big league Spring Training somewhere.

Reds Claim Josh Smith, Designate Juan Graterol For Assignment

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4:45 pm: The Marlins have announced Smith’s claim, with an addendum indicating that Miami has also outrighted catcher Tyler Heineman and righty Hector Noesi to the Triple-A New Orleans roster. This puts Miami’s 40-man roster count at 37.

2:47 pm: The Reds have claimed pitcher Josh Smith off of waivers from the Marlins, according to a tweet from C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (link). In a corresponding move, Cincinnati has designated catcher Juan Graterol for assignment.

The Marlins had claimed the left-handed Smith off of waivers from the Indians on Sept 14, making his time in the Miami organization exceedingly brief. Occasionally referred to as “Josh D. Smith” in order to avoid confusion, the lefty is a soft-tossing reliever with a largely fastball/slider dependent repertoire.  The 30-year-old played in both the Pirates and Red Sox organizations before making his big league debut with Cleveland in 2019; he ultimately made 14 appearances between the Indian and Marlin pens, logging a 6.39 ERA (4.32 FIP) in a small sample of 12.2 innings. Amir Garrett is the only lefty on-hand in the Cincinnati bullpen, so Smith could be a relatively no-cost flier for a club looking to broaden its mix-and-match capabilities.

The 30-year-old Graterol first came up to the bigs with the Angels in 2016, but he’s never really been given an extended look in the majors. Across parts of three seasons, he’s received just 129 plate appearances at the game’s highest level, logging a meek .218/.227/.266 line with zero home runs. He spent most of 2019 at Triple-A in the Reds organization, logging a .249/.301/.325 slash through 226 plate appearances.

Quick Hits: Maxwell, Lorenzen, Bauer, Manfred

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Former Athletics catcher Bruce Maxwell is a player known more for his ideological stances than for his performance on the diamond, but that hasn’t stopped the backstop from turning a few heads while playing in Mexico this season. The San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser can be counted as one who has taken the time to notice Maxwell’s torrid production south of the border, as the veteran scribe profiled the catcher’s attempts to resurrect a career impacted, in part, by his decision to kneel during the national anthem in 2017 (link). The now-28-year-old Maxwell hit .325 with 25 homers in 2019 while playing for the Acereros de Monclova, a team that also featured fellow former Athletic Chris Carter. But, as Slusser points out, it’s far from clear if Maxwell’s foreign success will be enough to entice teams to overlook the “political baggage” (Slusser’s words) associated with him.

“People say you have to be stand-up citizens, but guys who are taking steroids come back and they still have jobs,” Maxwell said to Slusser in regard to his current lack of stateside of employment. “Guys who beat their wives are back like nothing happened.” While Maxwell had a few other expletive-laced thoughts on the subject of perceived double standards within the business of sport, he did also admit to some mistakes over a brief MLB career that saw him hit .240/.314/.347 (83 wRC+) over 127 games. “I accept I had an attitude,” Maxwell said, “and I could have changed it and I didn’t; I accept responsibility for that.” Maxwell, in addition to his anthem protest, also gained notoriety for a 2017 arrest for aggravated assault.

More notes from around the game, as the Nats and Cards do battle in the NLCS…

  • While any news involving Maxwell is likely to inspire some commenting forum debate, our second item comes with far less controversy. In a piece for The Cincinnati Enquirer, Bobby Nightengale profiles Reds hurler Michael Lorenzen’s offseason quest to add velo to his already-fearsome fastball (link). Notably, Lorenzen is planning to seek the tutelage of recently new teammate Trevor Bauer. “We’re talking about making my delivery more efficient where I’m actually able to throw harder with less effort,” Lorenzen said of his discussions with Bauer to this point. “That’s a real thing if you understand human anatomy and human movement. It’s a real thing. With my strength numbers and my power numbers and my movement quality, I should be throwing harder.” As Nightengale points out, Lorenzen already averaged 97.2 mph on his heater this past season en route to notching a 2.92 ERA across 83.1 innings out of the Cincy pen. If Bauer is able to replicate the success he had working with former Indians teammate Mike Clevinger–who added several ticks to his fastball under Bauer’s instruction–the Reds may find themselves with a truly terrifying late-inning option in the Orange County-bred Lorenzen.
  • Evan Drellich of The Athletic published a thoughtful and well-researched piece that touched on MLB’s so-called attendance problem, which the writer positions as a possible consequence of broader societal moves toward online–and not in-person–leisure activities (link). MLB attendance was 68,494,752 in 2019, down 1.7 percent from the 2018 season, but Drellich points to the year-over-year growth of MLB At Bat and MLB.tv as signs that the league is growing in ways that may not be evident when looking at attendance data alone. Commissioner Rob Manfred is inclined to agree with this line of thinking: “We try to think about engagement with the game,” Manfred told Drellich. “We sell different things. We sell a live product…We sell a broadcast product…We try to look broader than just attendance.” Drellich’s piece also features extensive data regarding the league’s deployment of social science polling data in their concerted effort to engage Gen Z fans–very heady stuff, for those so inclined.

Reds Offense, Not The Bullpen, Responsible For Struggles In Close Games

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The Reds bullpen crumbled down the stretch in 2019, but confidence remains high in their core group of high-impact relievers, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

They formed the league’s best unit over the first half of the season, but the pressure never let up as the Reds finished with more one-run margins than any other team in the game. 57 one-run games plus another 31 games with a two-run margin made the difference in an up-and-down season for Cincinnati. Interestingly, President of Baseball Ops pretty clearly assigned blame in these games to the offense, defending the bullpen in saying, “When they did let things get away, I think they were, at times, unfairly scrutinized because I really think when the offense had chances to provide separating runs, get big leads, jump out, we just didn’t get quite enough of that, taking pressure off the pitching at times.”

The bullpen finished middle-of-the-pack by ERA, FIP, and fWAR, though admittedly closer to the top than the bottom. Despite all the close games, the unit still finished 25th in innings pitched, a good indicator for the starting rotation. All things considered, the Reds enter the offseason feeling pretty good about Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, and Robert Stephenson making up the core of their relief unit.

[RELATED – Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds]

All signs point to another eventful winter for the Reds, but it’s the offense where Williams is focusing his attention. Despite some breakout power in the forms of Eugenio Suarez and Aristides Aquino, the Reds finished 25th in the majors in runs scored. Their offense as a whole finished with just an 87 wRC+, also ranking 25th in the MLB. They have a ways to go to join the league’s elite in this regard: 11 teams finished with 100+ weighted runs created plus, 8 of whom made the postseason. The Cardinals 95 wRC+ was the lowest of any team in the postseason.

NL Notes: Keuchel, Cards, Mets, Reds, Wood, Fish, DJ

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Dallas Keuchel and the Braves are squaring off against the Cardinals in a memorable NLDS, but the left-hander recently told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch he’s surprised the Redbirds didn’t make a bigger effort to sign him when he was a free agent from November to June. “Honestly, I was fully expecting an offer from them,” said Keuchel. “Just never really came about.” Keuchel, whom the Braves signed to a one-year, $13MM deal after a protracted standoff between him and the entire league, added that he viewed St. Louis as “a good destination,” which could be notable with the soon-to-be 32-year-old set to hit free agency again in the coming weeks. Meantime, his club will try to eliminate the Cardinals in a do-or-die Game 5 on Wednesday.

  • The manager-needy Mets may have a couple in-house candidates for the job in quality control/outfield coach Miguel Rojas and Single-A manager Edgardo Alfonzo, per Mike Puma of the New York Post. The 38-year-old Rojas, who’s the son of longtime MLB outfielder/first baseman/manager Felipe Alou and the brother of former outfielder Moises Alou, has been a member of the Mets organization for 14 seasons (including eight as a minor league skipper). Now 45, Alfonzo’s best known for a highly productive run as a second/third baseman for the Mets from 1995-2002. Having coached in the organization since 2014, Alfonzo’s hoping New York considers him to replace the fired Mickey Callaway, Puma reports.
  • If the Reds are going to re-sign pending free-agent left-hander Alex Wood, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com estimates it would happen by way of a minor league contract. Considering Wood’s past success and relative youth (29 in January), getting him to accept a non-guaranteed deal may be unrealistic. Regardless, it’s inarguable Wood is coming off a contract year to forget. Acquired from the Dodgers last winter, Wood made only seven starts and threw just 35 2/3 for the Reds this year as he battled nagging back issues. Wood managed an ugly 5.80 ERA/6.38 FIP with 7.57 K/9, 2.27 BB/9 and a 38.2 percent groundball rate when he was healthy enough to take the ball for Cincy.
  • It’s already known the Marlins had interest in DJ LeMahieu last winter, but Joe Frisaro of MLB.com writes the Fish “made a strong push to sign” the second baseman in free agency. The former Cub and Rockie ultimately accepted a two-year, $24MM contract from the Yankees, with whom he has enjoyed a career season. The low-budget Marlins, meanwhile, ended up guaranteeing a mere $4.5MM to players in free agency, inking infielder Neil Walker (who served as a lesser version of LeMahieu for the club) and reliever Sergio Romo to one-year contracts.

NL Notes: Robles, Wainwright, Wood

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On a quiet transactional night in MLB, we’ll take a look at a few playoff and offseason related matters from the National League.

  • Nationals center fielder Víctor Robles isn’t in tonight’s lineup for the club’s pivotal NLDS Game 3 matchup against the Dodgers. Per Jamal Collier of MLB.com, that’s at the discretion of manager Dave Martinez, who overruled the rookie’s requests to start in order to be particularly cautious with his prized 22-year-old. Nevertheless, Martinez described Robles’ injury as a “very, very mild” hamstring strain, and noted that the speedster could come off the bench tonight. The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty adds (via Twitter) that the Nationals don’t anticipate any scenario in which they would scratch Robles from their NLDS roster, so it indeed seems an exceedingly minor concern for the defensive stalwart.
  • Adam Wainwright, 38, gave a brilliant performance this evening in the Cardinals’ Game 3 loss to the Braves, tossing 7.2 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. It was a vintage performance for the former ace, who gave the Cardinals 171.2 innings of league average pitching (4.19 ERA, 20.5% K%, 8.6% BB%) in the regular season. Clearly, Wainwright can still perform at a high level, but given his age and the upcoming expiration of his one-year contract, there are questions about his future. Wainwright, though, doesn’t sound like a man on the verge of hanging up the spikes, telling Joe Trezza of MLB.com postgame he “never felt for one second that today was going to be (his) last day.” That’s not a definitive statement that he’d be returning to the big leagues, or to St. Louis specifically, but it stands to reason both sides could have interest in a similar incentive-laden arrangement (which Waino went on to maximize for $10MM) as they hammered out last October.
  • While Wainwright stayed healthy all season, the same can’t be said for left-hander Alex Wood, who started just seven games for the Reds after they sent two noteworthy prospects to the Dodgers to acquire him, Yasiel Puig, and Kyle Farmer last winter. Dealing with a back injury, Wood was ineffective when he did manage to take the mound, working to a 5.80 ERA with dreadful peripherals. It was hardly the platform season the 28 year-old (29 in January) wanted as he nears free agency for the first time. With the offseason offering an opportunity to get healthy, the sinkerballer tells Bobby Nightengale of Cincinnati.com he’d like to return to the Reds, admitting that his injury-riddled season wasn’t what the organization had in mind when they acquired him. As Nightengale notes, it’s difficult to see the Reds winning a bidding war for Wood given their strong staple of returning starters. That said, president of baseball operations Dick Williams has made clear the organization plans to be aggressive in free agency this offseason and wants to bolster the club’s pitching depth, so perhaps a Wood reunion could be in the cards depending on how his market shakes out.
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