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Central Notes: Fulmer, Wood, M. Perez

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Tigers right-hander Michael Fulmer was one of the majors’ hardest-throwing starters from 2016-18, but his velocity has been anything but imposing early in 2019. As has been the case throughout the spring, Fulmer’s fastball sat in the 88 to 92 mph range during a 44-pitch outing Saturday, leading Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press to note that the soon-to-be 26-year-old “didn’t look right.” The Tigers aren’t confident Fulmer’s velocity will return, writes Fenech, which is an eyebrow-raising observation given that he’s one of the rebuilding team’s most valuable players and trade chips. But it’s worth noting Fulmer’s still in the early stages of his comeback from right knee surgery, and he and pitching coach Rick Anderson expressed confidence Saturday that his velocity will return, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News relays. If so, the 2016 AL Rookie of the Year figures to stand a far better chance of rebounding from a disappointing, injury-shortened 2017 – a 132 1/3-inning campaign in which he logged career-worst numbers (4.69 ERA/4.52 FIP with 7.48 K/9 and 3.13 BB/9).

More on a couple other hurlers from the majors’ Central divisions…

  • While Fulmer’s velocity has gone in the wrong direction this spring, the uptick Twins southpaw Martin Perez has experienced has impressed scouts, Dan Hayes of The Athletic notes (subscription required). As a member of the Rangers from 2012-18, with whom he had an unspectacular tenure, Perez’s average fastball clocked in at 93.5 mph. This spring, though, it has consistently reached the mid- to upper 90s – including across four shutout innings against the Pirates on Saturday. The increase may be attributable to a mechanical change the Twins made with Perez, whom they signed to a one-year, $4MM guarantee over the winter. The Twins have pushed Perez to incorporate his hips more into his delivery, Hayes details, and he has taken their advice. “All in from Day One,” assistant pitching coach Jeremy Hefner told Hayes. “He’s a joy to be around. One of the hardest workers we have.” If Perez’s velo gains stick, he could end up as a steal for the Twins, and may finally begin delivering on the hype he had during his days as a prospect.
  • Reds left-hander Alex Wood, who has been dealing with back issues over the past couple weeks, suffered a setback after throwing a simulated game Friday, according to manager David Bell (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Wood hasn’t pitched in a Cactus League game since Feb. 25, and it could be at least another week before he makes an appearance, Nightengale suggests. Although Bell said Wood’s injury isn’t “a major concern,” the skipper’s nonetheless unsure whether the winter acquisition will be ready for the start of the season.  Having picked Wood up in a blockbuster trade with the Dodgers, the Reds are counting on the 28-year-old to serve as one of the anchors in what they hope will be a vastly improved rotation.

NL Notes: Tatis, Senzel, Rox, Reynolds, Braves, Folty

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As a consensus top three farmhand in baseball, shortstop prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. may be able to help the Padres from the outset of the season, but he’s no lock to make the team. After all, by keeping the 20-year-old in the minors until at least mid-April, the Padres would gain an extra year of control over him. Nevertheless, the Padres’ highest-profile player, Manny Machado, is hopeful Tatis will join him on Opening Day to comprise the left side of their infield, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription required). “If he’s in there, we’re going to be a dangerous team, and I think we’re all rooting for him to break camp with us,” said Machado, an experienced shortstop who’s set to hold down third base for the Padres after signing a 10-year, $300MM contract with them last month. Meanwhile, manager Andy Green isn’t ruling out Tatis for the Padres’ season-opening roster, but he cautioned: “In (Tatis’) case, he’s a couple months above Double-A ball. He’s had two incredibly slow Aprils that unbelievable seasons followed. “So, there’s some context there that we’re going to factor into the equation that other people probably aren’t.” 

  • As is the case with Tatis, Reds prospect Nick Senzel could be an early season victim of service time manipulation. Senzel’s also trying to learn a new position, center field, as he entered the spring with no game experience there. Already, though, “it’s become clear” Senzel has the ability to handle the position, manager David Bell said Sunday (via John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Regardless of whether Senzel’s in center for the Reds from the get-go, the 24-year-old seems like a good bet to see the lion’s share of time at the position for the Reds this year. Senzel’s customary spots – second and third – are spoken for, whereas there’s no established center fielder blocking him in Cincinnati.
  • Although he only landed a minor league contract in free agency, first baseman Mark Reynolds is a near certainty to make the Rockies’ Opening Day roster, per Nick Groke of The Athletic (subscription required). If so, he’ll be the primary backup to first baseman Daniel Murphy, another offseason pickup for the club. The 35-year-old Reynolds was teammates with Murphy last season in Washington, where the former turned in a solid .248/.328/.476 line in 235 plate appearances after signing a minors pact with the Nationals in April.
  • Braves right-hander Mike Foltynewicz has been down with elbow soreness, but it’s “expected” he’ll resume throwing Monday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets. Foltynewicz isn’t on track to serve as the Braves’ Opening Day starter, but it appears he’ll be able to make his regular-season debut sometime during the first week of the campaign. The 27-year-old will attempt to build on a breakout 2018 showing in which he pitched to a 2.85 ERA/3.37 FIP with 9.93 K/9, 3.34 BB/9 and a 43.1 percent groundball rate over 183 innings.

Service Time Perspectives: Vlad, Bryant, Senzel

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With camp in full swing, we’re watching some of the game’s very best prospects share the field with existing big leaguers. That creates opportunity both for excitement at the youngsters’ eventual regular-season ascent and consternation at the anticipated timing thereof. As teams near decision points on another crop of players, with accusations of service-time manipulation already lurking, let’s take a look at some interesting recent comments on prospect promotion timing:

  • Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins discussed uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (audio via Twitter). Citing the organization’s focus on “development,” Atkins says of Guerrero: “I just don’t see him as a major league player.” While the consensus top prospect in baseball “has accomplished everything he can accomplish as an offensive player” in the minors, Atkins says, there’s evidently more he needs to work on before he’s to be trusted with a big league job. That includes “the physical aspect, the baserunning, the defense,” per the GM. (That first point represents a nod at Guerrero’s shape, John Lott of The Athletic suggests on Twitter.) The Toronto organization wants Guerrero to “start[] with an incredible foundation” once he reaches the majors so that it can “tap into all of that potential,” says Atkins. Some projection systems already regard Guerrero as one of the most capable hitters on the planet, even without having seen him against MLB pitching, so there’s no question of his readiness in that regard. The Jays, though, purport to believe that the other aspects of his game can benefit more from further game action at the Triple-A level.
  • There are certainly those who’d take a skeptical view of the true motivations where Guerrero and others are concerned. Cubs star Kris Bryant is among them, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Bryant believes the annual top-prospect hold-back represents an effort by teams to exploit “a loophole in the system.” His own promotion timeline more or less represents the most outwardly obvious service-time manipulation imaginable: Bryant was a polished, well-rounded college player who had laid waste to the upper minors and Cactus League pitching and was called upon as soon as the team secured the ability to control him for a full additional season. “It’s funny how obvious it can be,” said Bryant. “But now I can look back on it and just laugh about it because I was told to work on my defense too and I think I got three groundballs in those games that I played,” he added. The Chicago third baseman says that solving the issue will require “compromise” and “a logical solution,” noting that changes to free agent outcomes also serve to highlight the concerns for players.
  • Another much-hyped young player, top Reds prospect Nick Senzel, also has adopted a realistic (bordering on jaded) perspective as he nears his debut. He tells C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (subscription link) that he’s skeptical whether he really has a chance to head north out of camp with the MLB club. “Do I believe it? No,” he said of the Reds’stated intention to carry their best roster out of the gate without reference to service time. “But that’s just my honest opinion. We’ll see.” The Reds do have cover in this case, as Senzel’s 2018 season was cut short by injury and he’s transitioning to a new position, though he could put any questions to rest over the next few weeks. It’s particularly frustrating in Senzel’s case, Rosencrans notes, because he was on track to receive a late-2018 call-up before suffering a broken index finger that cost him the second half of last year.

Central Injury Notes: Darvish, Gray, Duffy, Dunning

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Though he was clearly carrying plenty of rust, Cubs righty Yu Darvish nevertheless turned in a rather promising first spring outing today, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes. Darvish says he felt great and the radar guns reflected it. While he struggled a bit to stay in the zone, that’s a secondary concern at this point given the major health ailments that ruined his 2018 season. With $101MM still owed to Darvish over the next five years, the Cubs have to be encouraged to see him feeling strong, though he still has a ways to go to reestablish himself as a front-line starter.

More health notes from the central divisions …

  • Reds right-hander Sonny Gray, who was scratched from his spring debut due to some elbow stiffness, is expected to throw a bullpen session Thursday, writes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. The team’s most notable offseason addition to the rotation, Gray will also throw from flat ground at a distance of 120 feet today, per the Cincinnati Enquirer’s John Fay (Twitter link). Manager David Bell told Feinsand that Gray was initially concerned about the elbow discomfort but is in vastly better spirits and has felt improvement each day since being scratched. For the time being, it seems, the Reds have decreasing reason to be concerned about Gray’s status.
  • The Royals are “backing off” from using Danny Duffy for the time being, manager Ned Yost tells reporters (Twitter links via Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star). The southpaw experienced tightness in his shoulder and had difficulty getting loose for his latest side session, though he eventually completed that session. Duffy feels it’s a minor issue and some standard-issue early spring stiffness. The Royals are already down a rotation candidate with righty Trevor Oaks perhaps headed for hip surgery, and subtracting arguably their most talented starter from the mix would be a considerably more damaging blow. Duffy, 30, struggled through a down season in 2018 but was Kansas City’s best arm in 2016-17 when he worked to a 3.64 ERA with 8.8 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 in 326 innings.
  • There was some ominous news out of White Sox camp, as Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com tweets that pitching prospect Dane Dunning is due for a closer medical look after experiencing forearm discomfort. The talented young righty has shown quite well ever since he cracked the professional ranks and entered the 2018 campaign as a consensus top-100 prospect leaguewide. Unfortunately, he missed half of the 2018 season owing to an elbow sprain. The hope was that Dunning would be able to pick up where he left off this spring.

Quick Hits: Reds, Gray, Rangers, Red Sox, Porcello

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The Reds rotation upgrades are the story of their winter, though impending free agency for Alex Wood and Tanner Roark means there’s not much time for this unit to gel. Their third big addition, Sonny Gray, is the most significant of the three if only because he immediately signed a three year, $30.5MM extension. Unfortunately, Reds fans will have to wait for Gray’s debut, as he was scratched from his start today with right elbow stiffness, per the Cincinnati Enquirer’s John Fay. Gray came to camp sore a couple days after throwing a bullpen session, but the hope is a little extra rest will get Gray right again. The team did not perform an MRI, and there’s no reason to suspect anything serious at this time. Time to check in on another couple of stories from around the league…

  • Each January, the Rangers invite a select group of top pitching prospects for a week-long mini-camp with the major league staff in advance of Spring Training, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. This season, however, they sent an even smaller group of about ten pitchers to a “secret secondary-pitch intensive.” The camp takes place at Driveline Baseball, an increasingly ballyhooed research and development consultant founded by Kyle Boddy. Trevor Bauer is one noted client, as is a couple of potential feel-good stories of 2019, Kyle Zimmer of the Royals and the Cubs 37-year-old rookie Luke Hagerty. Among the Rangers sent to Driveline were bullpen hopefuls like C.D. Pelham, Brett Martin, Michael Matuella, Jason Bahr, Nick Snyder and Brady Feigl. The exact purpose of the camp remains unclear, and Jon Daniels and the Rangers have been none too keen to speak on the subject. Still, the Driveline story is one to track throughout the year, as we may be hearing more from the innovative research group.
  • Rick Porcello is open to furthering his time with the Red Sox, but they have yet to approach him about an extension, per Rob Bradford of WEEI Sports Radio Network. Porcello excelled in 2016 when he was able to limit walks and home runs en route to winning 22 games and the AL Cy Young, despite a FIP of only 3.40. Now in the final year of the four year, $82.5MM deal signed before that season, Porcello’s market value is tricky to pinpoint. The Cy Young raises his profile, though he remains closer to a mid-rotation workhorse than a top-of-the-rotation ace. He has a career 4.02 FIP, but he’s also on a remarkable run of durability that makes him an outlier in this era – he has started between 27 and 33 games each season for ten years running. Porcello, 30, is likely not as high on the Red Sox priority list as Chris Sale, Mookie Betts, and Xander Bogaerts.

Reds Add Jose Iglesias On Minor League Deal

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11:45am: It is indeed a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training for Iglesias, who will earn $2.5MM if he makes the team out of camp, with the opportunity for $1MM more based on games played, tweets Mark Sheldon of MLB.com.

9:00am: MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Reds have a deal in place for Iglesias. No details have been given, though it figures to be a minor league deal.

Feb 23, 8:44am: The Reds still have not officially announced a deal for Iglesias, but he has a locker and a jersey, per the Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans (via Twitter).

Feb 22: The Reds and shortstop Jose Iglesias have been discussing a minor league contract, Ken Rosenthal and C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic report (via Twitter). If the deal comes to fruition, he’d join Derek Dietrich in MLB camp as a quality veteran with a strong chance at securing a bench role come Opening Day. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Reds are indeed interested, but the veteran Iglesias could wait a bit longer to see if an injury elsewhere in the game opens a clearer path to regular at-bats.

Iglesias, 29, is one of the game’s premier defenders at shortstop and actually had an improved year at the plate in 2018, hitting .269/.310/.389 in 464 plate appearances — good for both a 90 OPS+ and wRC+ (essentially indicating that his bat was about 10 percent worse than that of a league-average hitter after adjusting for his home park and league). For a player with his defensive prowess, that level of offense is more than acceptable, which is why both Fangraphs (2.5) and Baseball-Reference (2.2) both felt that Iglesias was worth more than two wins above replacement last season.

That said, Iglesias’ bat was considerably less productive in 2016-17, when he posted a timid .255/.297/.353 batting line over the life of 1002 plate appearances. It’s now been three full seasons since Iglesias enjoyed a quality season at the plate, when he hit .300/.347/.370 (99 OPS+) back in 2015.

The Reds already have some infield depth beyond starting shortstop Jose Peraza. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez has the ability to slide over to shortstop in a pinch, and Cincinnati also has one of baseball’s premier prospects, Nick Senzel, looming in Triple-A (although Senzel is currently working in the outfield as he vies for a job in center field). Iglesias, though, would give them a clear backup at shortstop while also providing the ability to handle second base and third base when needed.

Iglesias’ situation appears somewhat similar to that of veteran catcher Martin Maldonado, who is reportedly drawing interest from the Mariners but having difficulty securing a Major League deal. Both are light hitters who are among the game’s best defenders at their respective positions but have seemingly been unable to find a team willing to sign them to the big league roster.

NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Moose, Reds, Montgomery

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Though the Cardinals have a deep mix of rotation candidates, Bernie Miklasz of The Athletic explores the uncertainty surrounding many of those arms in a call for the St. Louis organization to pursue free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel (subscription required). The Cards can’t know what to expect from Adam Wainwright, Miklasz writes, and the recent shoulder troubles for Carlos Martinez have raised some questions as well. Michael Wacha, too, has had his share of injuries in recent seasons and made only 15 starts in 2018. And while ballyhooed prospect Alex Reyes has a sky-high ceiling, he’s pitched just four innings across the past two seasons (27 frames, including the minors) and will obviously be limited in ’19 as a result. Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas each have just one season of MLB success under their belt, and the depth options for the rotation are even less established.

Furthermore, each of Mikolas, Wacha and Wainwright are free agents next winter, creating some potential needs down the line. Miklasz does write, however, that the Cardinals are “confident” of reaching an extension with Mikolas. Both sides expressed interest in such a deal late last month.

Here’s more from the NL Central…

  • Mike Moustakas met with reporters upon his arrival at Brewers camp this week to discuss his offseason and his new position: second base (video link courtesy of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). “It’s going to be fun,” said Moustakas of playing second base. “Obviously, it’s going to be new. I’ve been over there a couple of times in the shift, so it’s kind of comfortable at this point. … Me and Counsell talked about — even last year, we talked about it when I got traded over.” Moustakas had no gripes about being asked to make the switch even though last season it was Travis Shaw who slid to second base. Rather, he touted Shaw’s “phenomenal” glove at the hot corner and voiced trust in the Brewers’ data/analytics department to help position him for success at his new spot on the diamond. There are, of course, some other intricacies to handle, though Moustakas noted that the middle infield isn’t totally foreign to him, considering he was drafted as a shortstop (and logged 561 innings there in the low minors from 2007-08). “…That double play is something we’re going to have work on and get used to, and cutoffs, relays — being in the right position. I’ll get the hang of it.”
  • Because the Reds have yet to add a true center field option to the roster, Scott Schebler is among the top options to break camp in that role, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. The 28-year-old does have a nominal amount of experience at the position, having logged a combined 358 innings there across the past three seasons. “I’m interested to see him in center,” rookie manager David Bell said to Sheldon. “Everyone I’ve talked to that has seen him, people are confident that he can do it. I am, too, but it’ll be a good opportunity to see him out there. I’m convinced he can be really good in left and right.” Schebler will have some competition for the center field gig in the form of Yasiel Puig and top prospect Nick Senzel, though Senzel played in only 44 games last season due to a fractured finger and vertigo symptoms; he was also forced to sit out the Arizona Fall League after undergoing elbow surgery.
  • Cole Hamels’ return to the Cubs all but eliminated Mike Montgomery’s chances of opening the season in the team’s rotation, but Montgomery nonetheless tells MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian that he was “rooting” for the team to retain Hamels. Montgomery will return to a role with which he’s quite familiar — one that requires him to be ready to start, pitch in high-leverage spots late in games and also to enter in multi-inning stints as needed. “Be a guy that can start 20 games or close 20 games, because it has to be [that way],” said Montgomery. As Bastian notes, Montgomery not only started 19 games in Chicago last season, he also entered the game in eight different innings as a reliever and pitched multiple innings of relief on seven occasions. The versatile lefty is controlled through the 2021 season and will earn $2.44MM in 2019 as a first-time arbitration-eligible player.

No Agreement Between Reds, Robbie Ross

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Feb. 19: A source tells MLBTR that there is no current agreement between the Reds and Ross. While the two sides have talked, Ross is continuing to throw for other clubs as he seeks a landing spot for the 2019 campaign.

Feb. 16: The Reds have reportedly signed reliever Robbie Ross to a minor league deal.

Ross, 29, held down a regular spot in the Ranger and Red Sox bullpens from 2012-16, but has missed much of the last two seasons with elbow and back problems. In 2016, his last full season of work, Ross turned in an excellent 3.25 ERA/3.27 FIP (0.7 fWAR) on the back of career-best (9.11 K/9, 0.33 HR/9) peripherals. The lefty’s slider, always a cut above, checked in as the 9th best version of the pitch among all qualified relievers that year, per FanGraphs.

Though his bat-missing acumen against opposite-side hitters has largely prevented a breakaway from the journeyman pack, Ross still sports a respectable .319 career wOBA against vs. righties, and shouldn’t be confined to a specialist-only role. The veteran will hope to regain the 2.4 MPH he lost (down to a career-low 91.8 average MPH) on his fastball after injuries took hold.

Ross will look to join an in-flux Reds bullpen spearheaded by a dominant Raisel Iglesias and otherwise peppered with mostly-fungible names. Zach Duke and Amir Garrett carry the unit’s southpaw flag at current, though a pain-free Ross may well squeeze himself in.

Scooter Gennett Frustrated By Lack Of Extension Talks

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Reds second baseman Scooter Gennett expressed frustration today with the lack of engagement by the organization regarding a long-term contract, as John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.

Saying that his side has “opened it up” in search of a dialogue this winter, Gennett says he has “heard absolutely nothing.” Previously, he and the club worked out a $9.775MM deal to cover his final season of arbitration eligibility. That’s a hefty sum, to be sure, but did fall shy of the $10.7MM that MLBTR projected.

Gennett made clear that his primary frustration isn’t the lack of a long-term deal so much as it is the club’s communication on the matter. “What I don’t like is when you’re told we’re going to have a talk and it doesn’t happen,” he said. GM Nick Krall declined to comment, citing club policy.

In the middle of the 2018 campaign, Gennett said he had reason to believe there was serious interest from the club in an extension. Things seemingly shifted this winter, though, for the Cincinnati native. President of baseball operations Dick Williams cast doubt on the possibility of a deal and Gennett even briefly popped up in trade rumors.

There’s still time for a change of course in camp, but there’s clearly no momentum toward an agreement at present. Gennett says he’s fine with the current arrangement from a financial perspective — “I’m only going to make more money going year-to-year than if I signed a long-term deal” — but would like to know what to anticipate from a personal perspective.

Looking at the subject from a roster-building perspective, it’s not too hard to see why the Reds might have hesitated. Gennett is still just 28 years of age and has now put up two-straight quality seasons, but he also has some platoon limitations and only lines up at second base defensively. While the plan is to put top prospect Nick Senzel at center field this spring, it’s also possible that he or another rising prospect could make for a compelling infield option in the relatively near term. With other needs already readily foreseeable next winter, locking into Gennett for significant money comes with some clear downside.

Nick Senzel Hires Wasserman Agency

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Top Reds prospect Nick Senzel has changed agents, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. He’s now represented by the Wasserman Group and agent Joel Wolfe.

For the time being, the 23-year-old Senzel has plenty of non-contractual matters on his plate. He is working to recover from a finger injury that cost him a big chunk of time last year, learning to patrol the outfield, and trying to convince the front office to bring him up to the majors — if not right out of camp, then not long thereafter.

Odds are that the Reds will at least leave Senzel at Triple-A Louisville for a stretch to open the year. Service time is a relevant consideration for any highly rated players. But the above-noted factors arguably provide ample justification for a stretch in the minors.

[RELATED: MLBTR Agency Database]

The second overall pick of the 2016 draft and a consensus top-ten overall prospect leaguewide, Senzel has done nothing but impress in the minors. He’ll likely be up sooner than later. So long as he spends at least a couple of weeks in the minors to open the season, though, he’ll be controlled by the Reds through at least the 2025 campaign.

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