Keith Law On Epstein, Sizemore, Votto, Ricciardi
ESPN's Keith Law gave his thoughts on a number of prospects during a chat with readers today, and also expounded on a few Major League items. The highlights…
- Cubs fans should be excited about Theo Epstein's "ability to turn the Cubs' baseball ops department into a process-oriented, professionally run organization. You can't run a baseball team the way they were run 20 or 30 years ago. It's a business now, one where smart decisions based on sound processes are necessary and innovation is increasingly critical."
- Law describes Brett Jackson (taken 31st overall by the Cubs in the 2009 amateur draft) as a "non-star prospect" and thinks he would be fair compensation for Epstein.
- Law doesn't think Grady Sizemore can remain healthy as an everyday center fielder. The Indians have a $9MM club option on Sizemore next season but will take their time in deciding on it, given that Sizemore just underwent knee surgery.
- Between Joey Votto and Yonder Alonso, Law would deal Alonso and "look to win" in the remaining two years that Votto is under Reds' control. Cincinnati GM Walt Jocketty recently shot down rumors that the Reds were listening to offers for the reigning NL MVP.
- Law hears from his sources that J.P. Ricciardi isn't currently on the Orioles' short list of general manager candidates, as was reported on Tuesday by Law's ESPN colleague Buster Olney. Law worked for the Blue Jays' front office from 2002-06 when Ricciardi was the team's general manager.
- The Mariners "might have the best rotation in baseball by 2013 or so."
- If given a choice of signing either Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols to a seven-year contract worth the same money, Law says he would choose the younger Fielder. "Pujols is the better player right now, but even at his listed age I worry about his durability and potential decline," Law says.
- Despite Alex Avila's breakout 2011 season, Law said he still prefers Matt Wieters as the better long-term player.
AL East Links: Red Sox, Jays, Yanks, Sabathia, O’s
Some links from the only division with three 90-win teams in 2011…
- WEEI.com's Alex Speier reports that the Red Sox will not interview anyone for their managerial opening until the status of GM Theo Epstein is resolved. The Cubs have asked permission to talk to Epstein about their GM vacancy.
- SI.com's Jon Heyman reports (on Twitter) that teams are showing trade interest in Joey Votto, and "speculation around the game" is that the Blue Jays will be in the mix. Earlier tonight we heard that the Reds have not discussed trading Votto, however.
- Unsurprisingly, the Yankees are looking for starting pitching and left-handed relievers, tweets Heyman. Our free agent list shows a number of attractive lefty relief options.
- Amber Sabathia, wife of Yankees ace CC Sabathia, told Ken Davidoff of Newsday that her family is "definitely invested" in New York and that she considers it to be their home. Sabathia can choose to opt-out of his seven-year, $161MM deal this winter.
- MLB.com's Britt Ghiroli looks both back and ahead with regards to the Orioles front office. President of baseball operations Andy MacPhail is stepping down when his contract expires at the end of the month.
Jocketty: We Haven’t Talked About Trading Votto
A few days ago we heard the Reds were willing to listen to offers for first baseman Joey Votto, though they weren't actively shopping him. GM Walt Jocketty shot that down today, telling MLB.com's Mark Sheldon…
"We haven’t talked about it. I wish that people would stop writing it," said Jocketty. "Why would we trade one of the best players in the game? We’re trying to win."
Votto, 28, just completed the first year of a three-year, $38MM deal that bought out all three years of his arbitration-eligibility. He will earn $9.5MM next season then $17MM in 2013 before becoming a free agent. A trade now would bring greater return since the acquiring team will get him for two full years rather than one or even less.
The reigning NL MVP hit .309/.416/.531 with 29 homers this year, numbers that are actually down across the board compared to 2010. Miguel Cabrera had two years of team control left when the Marlins dealt him to the Tigers, though it's not a perfect comparison because of the Dontrelle Willis factor. Adrian Gonzalez returned three good prospects (and a role player) with just one year of control left. Either way, Votto would represent a viable trade alternative to a team fearful of handing a long-term contract to Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder.
Arbitration Eligibles: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Jose Arredondo, Homer Bailey, Paul Janish
- Second time: Edinson Volquez, Jared Burton, Bill Bray
- Third time: Nick Masset
I see Burton as the most likely non-tender candidate, though he projects for only $900K. The 30-year-old righty missed most of the season due to a shoulder issue.
Many of the remaining arbitration eligibles disappointed in 2011, but will probably be tendered contracts. A projected salary rundown: Masset ($2.4MM), Volquez ($2.3MM), Bailey ($1.8MM), Arredondo ($1MM), Janish ($800K). Janish seems the most likely of this group to be non-tendered, but I think his defense and low salary will save him. The Reds could trim payroll by trading a few of these players though.
If Masset, Volquez, Bailey, Arredondo, and Janish are retained, the cost should be around $8.3MM. Excluding buyouts for Francisco Cordero and Brandon Phillips, the Reds have $50.558MM in 2012 contractual commitments according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. The five arbitration eligibles would bring them to about $59MM before minimum salary players are considered, which is about $22MM below the 2011 Opening Day payroll of $81MM. GM Walt Jocketty expects to bump up payroll a little, but the majority of the surplus will probably go to Phillips and Cordero.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
Quick Hits: Votto, Anderson, Red Sox, Dodgers
Links for Sunday evening as the Brewers have jumped out to a 1-0 lead over the Cardinals in the NLCS..
- The Reds need to ask themselves if they believe that they can pay Joey Votto a market-value contract after 2013, writes Buster Olney of ESPN.com. If the Reds don't believe that they can pay him, Olney writes that history says that they should move him between now and July 31, 2012.
- The Red Sox could use Lars Anderson as a trade chip this offseason, writes Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal. The 24-year-old first baseman is stuck behind Adrian Gonzalez and MacPherson identifies several teams who would be interested in the youngster. Anderson was nearly shipped to the Athletics in a deal for Rich Harden in July.
- Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times doesn't expect to see the Dodgers make many changes this winter. If Ned Colletti & Co. don't sign a bopper in free agency, that leaves trading for a big bat and the club doesn't have much to offer in return.
- Tigers closer Jose Valverde represents yet another ex-Astros player achieving success elsewhere, writes Stephen Goff of Examiner.com.
- Brewers right-hander Shaun Marcum sees a bright future for his former teammate, Cardinals lefty reliever Marc Rzepczynski. Marcum, who will start Game 2 of the NLCS on Monday, played with Rzepczynski in Toronto.
East Links: Marlins, Votto, Darvish, Cashman
For the first time since 2005, there isn't a single team from either East division in the LCS round. That just means we're going to be hearing a lot more about them during the hot stove season. Here are some East Coast links…
- Earlier today we heard that the Reds are expected to listen to offers for Joey Votto, and Joe Capozzi of The Palm Beach Post thinks the Marlins may kick the tires (Twitter link). The Fish are expected to make a splash before moving into their new stadium, and Votto would certainly qualify. Click here for Tim Dierkes' Offseason Outlook.
- Although the Marlins are expected to be quite active this offseason, Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel (via Twitter) doesn't expect them to be in on Yu Darvish as the club isn't terribly active in Asia.
- No surprise here, but Yankees GM Brian Cashman says that he still wants to return next season, writes Chad Jennings of The Journal News. Cashman's contract expires at the end of the month, and ESPN's Buster Olney hears (on Twitter) that talks about a new contract are going smoothly. A deal could be done by the end of next week.
- Jennings looked back at the trade deadline and asked if the Yankees missed an opportunity. He says it's easy to say they did in hindsight, but he agrees when Cashman says "I don't see there was any missed opportunity I could have done differently."
NL Central Notes: Votto, Cardinals, Carpenter
Let's take a look at a few items out of the National League Central…
- Rival executives are getting signals that the Reds won't shop Joey Votto, but the club is fully prepared to listen to offers this winter, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com.
- We could see some changes to the Cardinals' coaching staff, writes Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Athletics have expressed interest in assistant hitting coach Mike Aldrete and he is believed the leading candidate for the position. Meanwhile, pitching coach Dave Duncan may choose to step away from baseball as his wife is suffering from a brain malignancy.
- Before the Cardinals inked a two-year extension with Chris Carpenter in September, they internally discussed whether the veteran's stuff had regressed, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com. Ultimately, they decided that even though his surface-level stats had taken a dip, Carpenter was still capable of throwing well.
- Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (via Twitter) expects the Cubs to name their next GM before the start of the World Series.
NL Central Notes: Astros, Lee, Reds
The NL Central's two playoff representatives both play tonight. The Cardinals host the Phillies in St. Louis and the Brewers could eliminate the D'Backs in Phoenix. Here's the latest on the division's non-playoff teams as we await today's games…
- Prospective Astros owner Jim Crane hasn’t received a formal proposal from MLB regarding compensation for a possible move to the American League, according to Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle. However, Crane has had increased dialogue about a possible league change.
- The Pirates will make a run at re-signing Derrek Lee, according to MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch. Lee didn’t reveal much about his 2012 plans during the season and has maintained that he’s keeping his options open, even retirement.
- The Pirates announced that their entire coaching staff will return in 2012.
- The Reds haven't discussed possible extensions with Francisco Cordero or Brandon Phillips since the season ended last week, GM Walt Jocketty told John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The GM hopes to resume talks next week with Cordero, who will likely agree to a two-year deal, and Phillips, who won't be giving the Reds a hometown discount.
- MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes previewed the Cubs’ class of arbitration eligible players this morning.
Central Notes: Fister, Pence, Cubs
A few items of note regarding teams from MLB's Central divisions, as the Cards fall behind the Phils in Game 1 of the NLDS.
- The Tigers preferred Doug Fister to Ubaldo Jimenez when they were shopping for a pitcher before the trade deadline, according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. Whether that's true, we'll probably never know, but Fister certainly pitched better for Detroit than Jimenez did for Cleveland after the deadline. The Mariners were originally hesitant to move Fister, according to Knobler, but Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski was persistent in pursuing the right-hander.
- The Reds tried to acquire Hunter Pence from the Astros, according to Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News, and GM Walt Jocketty has said he thought he made a better offer to Houston than the one it eventually accepted from the Phillies. McCoy reports that the Astros wanted Devin Mesoraco and adds that lefty Aroldis Chapman was not available.
- The Cubs remain in limbo while waiting to hire a new general manager, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, who notes that the fates of manager Mike Quade, his coaches, and several players are up in the air until someone takes the helm. The Cubs are unlikely to spend lavishly this offseason, according to Sullivan.
Ohio Notes: Thome, Sizemore, Phillips, Cordero
The Indians (80-82) edged out the Reds (79-83) for state bragging rights this season and the Tribe also went 5-1 against Cincinnati in interleague play. As a result, the Cleveland notes lead off the latest edition of news from the Buckeye State…
- "I would say that the percentage is higher of me coming back next year than not," Jim Thome tells MLB.com's Zack Meisel. The veteran slugger is known to be considering retirement.
- GM Chris Antonetti says the Indians' payroll will be "significantly" higher next year, tweets MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. This doesn't necessarily mean Cleveland will be making big moves, however, as the Tribe have a number of players due healthy arbitration raises this winter.
- Appearing on a Starting Blocks TV video, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer predicts that Grady Sizemore will return to the Indians next season. The Tribe have a $9MM club option on Sizemore for 2012, or the team could buy him out for $500K. Hoynes also writes that the Indians will have to make a quick decision about their center fielder given that Sizemore had his knee examined on Monday and teams have until just three days after the last game of the World Series to decide on player options.
- Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer believes the Tribe should let Sizemore leave since he's too much of an injury risk. Pluto suggets Cleveland should decline Sizemore's option and see if he would agree to return for something akin to a $3MM deal with lots of incentives.
- In case you missed it, manager Manny Acta's option for the 2013 season was picked up earlier today by the Tribe.
- Tim Belcher has stepped down as the Indians' pitching coach and will take a job in the team's baseball operations department. MLB.com's Jordan Bastian reports that "the Indians have known for months" that Belcher was thinking of resigning.
- The Reds should "play the odds" and cut ties with both Brandon Phillips and Francisco Cordero, opines John Erardi of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Erardi thinks the Reds must spend more efficiently and not sign two veteran players to big-money contracts. He also suggests seeing what Aroldis Chapman could bring on the trade market.
- John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer thinks the Reds will again pursue an front-of-the-rotation pitcher this winter.
- "This is going to be a strange offseason, I think," Bronson Arroyo says to MLB.com's Mark Sheldon. "I don't think anyone in the locker room here has any idea what moves the front office wants to make."