Guardians Sign Ben Lively To Major League Deal
The Guardians announced Tuesday that they’ve signed right-hander Ben Lively to a one-year, Major League contract. Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports that Lively will be guaranteed just north of the league minimum on the deal, earning a $750K salary in 2024. Lively is represented by Meister Sports Management.
Lively, 31, spent the 2022-23 seasons with the Reds after a three-year run with the Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization. The entirety of that 2022 campaign was spent in Triple-A, but Lively was selected to the Majors early last season and pitched 88 2/3 innings for the Reds, starting a dozen games and making another seven relief appearances. He posted an unsightly 5.38 ERA in that time, although a disproportionate amount of the damage against him came in one start on Aug. 1, when the Reds left him out there to take an eye-popping 13-run shellacking at the hands of the Cubs.
Lively’s 20.6% strikeout rate was a bit south of the league average this past season and he averaged just 90.9 mph on his fastball. However, he also issued walks at a tidy 6.5% clip, and the Guards are probably less concerned with his 2.03 HR/9 mark than other teams might’ve been, given the spacious nature of their home park. Lively still seems likely to struggle with the long ball at times, but pitching half his games at Progressive Field should help mitigate some of those struggles.
The signing of a Lively is in some ways out of character for the Guardians, who haven’t inked a free-agent starting pitcher to a Major League contract since signing Gavin Floyd to a one-year deal nearly a decade ago. Lively could well be viewed as a swingman and may not even be a lock to make the Opening Day roster, however, as he also has a minor league option remaining. Cleveland has been able to eschew free agent starting pitching entirely for the better part of a decade, thanks largely to the organization’s nearly unrivaled pitching development prowess.
Lively’s role with the Guards likely depends on how the remainder of their offseason shakes out. As it stands, he’d likely serve as a swingman or sixth starter behind Shane Bieber, Tanner Bibee, Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams. However, it’s also quite possible that Cleveland trades Bieber between now and Opening Day, as is the organization’s tendency with notable starting pitchers who are approaching the open market.
For instance, Bieber will reach free agency next winter, and the team has previously traded top starters like Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger before any qualified to become free agents. Trades of Bieber, closer Emmanuel Clase (on whom the Guardians are reportedly willing to listen) and/or other members of the roster could net further competition for the back of the rotation, as could future free-agent signings. For now, however, Lively joins that mix. No team makes it through a full season with only five starters anyhow, and both Bieber and McKenzie missed substantial time in 2023 due to elbow injuries. Even if he opens the year as a long reliever, Lively has a good chance to start games at some point, as injuries arise.
While it’s commonplace for players returning from the KBO or from NPB to have clauses in their contracts allowing them to become free agents despite lacking six years of MLB service time, MLBTR has confirmed that that’s not the case with Lively, because of the fact that he’d already spent a year back in the big leagues. As such, he’s now under Guardians control via arbitration for another five seasons. If he spends the entire year in the Majors, he’d likely be arbitration-eligible next offseason as a Super Two player. Lively is currently at 1.133 days of MLB service time, and this year’s Super Two cutoff was 2.118. It’s feasible he could spend a week or two in the minors and still reach Super Two status, but he’d be right on the bubble with even a brief stay in the minors.
Cubs, Mariners, Pirates Interested In Josh Naylor
Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor drew trade interest from the Cubs, Mariners, and Pirates during the Winter Meetings, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports. There is no indication that the Guards were in serious talks about a deal, and as Hoynes notes, “for an offensively challenged club, it seems strange that they’d consider trading [Naylor]. But…it never hurts to listen.”
The 26-year-old Naylor hit .308/.354/.489 with 17 homers over 495 plate appearances last season, marking his second straight year of quality production. The first baseman has a 124 wRC+ in 993 PA since Opening Day 2022, and this past season saw Naylor develop into more of a well-rounded hitter than just a power bat. Naylor’s average and OBP increased greatly from 2022, and Naylor also cut back on his strikeouts without losing any of his power. While he doesn’t walk much, that approach isn’t unusual for a Cleveland team that prioritizes contact above all.
It seems quite possible that Naylor hasn’t yet reached his ceiling, given that his early-career development was stunted by both the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and then a nasty fractured ankle that cut short his 2021 season and cost him a bit of time at the start of the 2022 campaign. Naylor also missed about a month due to an oblique strain in 2023, and still generated positive numbers despite a very slow start over the season’s first six weeks.
Naylor’s 128 wRC+ actually outpaced Jose Ramirez‘s 123 mark for tops among all Guardians regulars, and Josh’s younger brother Bo Naylor also delivered a 124 wRC+ in the smaller sample size of 230 PA. These were among the few highlights in an overall dismal year at the plate for the rest of Cleveland’s roster, as the lack of hitting and multiple injuries in the rotation left the Guardians with a mediocre 76-86 record in Terry Francona’s final season as manager.
As Hoynes noted, moving Naylor would seem counterintuitive for a Guardians team that is seemingly looking to upgrade the lineup. However, as is often the case with the Guards’ moves, there is a financial element at play. Naylor is projected to earn $7.2MM in the second of three arbitration years, and he is eligible to hit free agency after the 2025 campaign. While Ramirez is a notable exception, the Guardians generally doesn’t try to retain star talent unless they’re locked up to extensions earlier in their careers, so Naylor could potentially join a long list of notable Cleveland players who were dealt with at least one year remaining of team control.
Just this offseason, it is widely expected that the Guardians will deal Shane Bieber since the former Cy Young Award winner will be a free agent in the 2024-25 offseason. Cleveland has already moved Cal Quantrill to the Rockies in a salary dump type of trade, and this winter in particular carries extra financial uncertainty for the small-market Guardians since the Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy proceedings could see the team lose their TV deal. Since their payroll isn’t expected to go up, that leaves the front office with some tricky decisions to make in figuring out how to improve the roster as a whole.
With this in mind, Naylor becomes a very interesting possible trade chip in an offseason market thin on big bats, particularly in free agency. Any number of teams would certainly have interest in a 26-year-old who might not have hit his offensive peak yet, and a new club would have two years to perhaps ink Naylor to an extension.
Based on what Cleveland usually seeks out in such trades of established talent, the Guardians could try and obtain an MLB-ready who can help the team in 2024, as well as a longer-term prospect or two. Turning to the clubs in Hoynes’ report, the highly-ranked farm systems of the Pirates and Cubs could certainly have the assets to fit what would surely be a big asking price from the Guardians.
Acquiring Naylor would instantly fill the Cubs’ needs at first base, and provide a nice pivot after Chicago missed out on Shohei Ohtani. Cubs GM Carter Hawkins is very familiar with Naylor, as Hawkins previously worked in Cleveland’s front office before heading to Wrigleyville following the 2021 season. As much as Jed Hoyer’s front office has been hesitant about dealing from its stash of young talent, two years of relatively inexpensive control over Naylor is a tempting proposition, and it would allow the Cubs to then devote extra dollars to free agency.
There is some irony in the Pirates looking to land a player from another team looking to cut costs, given Pittsburgh’s long history of low payrolls. However, the Bucs have a clear need at first base, and acquiring Naylor would also be another major sign that the team is preparing to finally return to contention. That push might even come as early as 2024, given the NL Central’s state of flux.
The Mariners are looking for a particular kind of offensive upgrade, as Naylor would fit Seattle’s prioritization of good contact hitters. The M’s have already parted ways with Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, and Jarred Kelenic in their pursuit of more contact, and acquiring Naylor could also give the Mariners cover to trade current first baseman Ty France.
Marlins Acquire Christian Bethancourt From Guardians
The Marlins and Guardians have announced a trade that will send catcher Christian Bethancourt to Miami in exchange for cash considerations. Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extrabase was the first to report Bethancourt going to the Marlins, while the Miami Herald’s Craig Mish reported the cash return to Cleveland (both links to X).
The trade adds context to the Guardians’ $one-year, $4MM deal with Austin Hedges from earlier today. The signing initially seemed curious given how Bethancourt and Bo Naylor were already lined up as Cleveland’s catching corps, but obviously the Guards were planning two moves at once in both signing Hedges and then flipping Bethancourt to the catcher-needy Marlins.
Bethancourt is a veteran of seven MLB seasons, though none in 2018-21 as he played in the minor leagues and spent a season playing in South Korea. Returning to the big leagues with the A’s in 2022, Bethancourt was then dealt to Tampa Bay in July 2022, and the catcher ended up hitting .235/.257/.399 over 483 PA with the Rays over the last two seasons. With his numbers falling off at the plate in 2023, the Rays outrighted Bethancourt off their 40-man roster at the start of November, and the Guardians claimed him off waivers two days later.
Almost at that exact same time, Peter Bendix was in final talks with the Marlins to leave the Rays’ GM job and become Miami’s new president of baseball operations. As such, Bethancourt has become one of several ex-Tampa players that Bendix has already added to Miami’s roster during his brief time in charge of the front office.
While Bethancourt had exactly a league-average 100 wRC+ (from a .252/.283/.409 slash line and 11 homers in 333 PA) in 2022, it is safe to assume he probably won’t be viewed as a true starting catcher for the Marlins. Bethancourt and Nick Fortes at least provide the Fish with a slight upgrade on paper from last year’s catching tandem of Fortes and the non-tendered Jacob Stallings, as Bethancourt’s strong throwing arm can pair with Fortes’ glove for a defense-first approach. Bendix will probably keep an eye out for any more possible upgrades, as Fortes can still be optioned to the minors.
Bethancourt was projected to earn $2.3MM in arbitration salary this winter, so the Rays’ outright essentially served as an early non-tender for the team. This is Betancourt’s second of three arb-eligible years, so the Marlins have control on his services through the 2025 season.
Guardians To Sign Austin Hedges
The Guardians and catcher Austin Hedges are reportedly in agreement on a contract worth $4MM, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. As noted by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the pact is a one-year deal.
A second-round pick by the Padres in the 2011 draft, Hedges made his MLB debut with San Diego back in 2015. After spending the first two seasons of his big league career in a reserve role, Hedges as the Padres’ primary catcher from 2017 to 2019, slashing just .208/.265/.380 but earning excellent marks for his defense behind the plate. Hedges started the shortened 2020 campaign in San Diego but was shipped to Cleveland in a nine-player deal that brought Mike Clevinger to San Diego. Hedges made just six appearances throughout the remainder of the season following the trade, but became the regular catcher in Cleveland during the 2021 and 2022 seasons. It was more of the same for Hedges during his time in Cleveland, as he batted a paltry .168/.228/.274 while posting elite defensive numbers.
In his first trip to the open market last season, Hedges landed with the Pirates on a one-year, $5MM deal before being dealt to the Rangers at the Trade Deadline, with whom he won the World Series as part of a catching corps that also featured Jonah Heim and Mitch Garver. The 30-year-old’s characteristic mix of anemic offense and strong defense continued last season. In 212 trips to the plate, Hedges posted a career-worst slash line of .184/.234/.327. While that 27 wRC+ is a whopping 73% worse than league average, Statcast’s Fielding Run Value metric put him in the 99th percentile among all MLB players last season. Hedges ranked in the 98th percentile with +13 framing runs while also posting a 90th percentile +8 blocks above average.
Those defensive chops earned him another shot in Cleveland, where the Guardians surely hope he can act as a mentor to young catcher Bo Naylor behind the plate. Naylor impressed in 67 games last season with a slash line of .237/.337/.470 (124 wRC+), but his defensive metrics left something to be desired as he was only slightly better than league average in terms of framing and below average in terms of blocking and controlling the running game. Hedges should be able to guide Naylor in each of those areas while also helping him stay rested throughout the season. His strong defense and game-calling ability should also be an asset for the Guardians’ many young pitchers, including Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams.
Vic Davalillo Passes Away
Longtime major league outfielder Vic Davalillo has passed away at the age of 84, according to a Spanish-language report from El Extrabase.
A native of Venezuela, Davalillo began his pro baseball career in 1958. He signed with the Reds as a relief pitcher. After two and a half minor league seasons, he was traded to the Indians for cash. By the 1962 season, Cleveland had converted him to almost full-time outfield work. Davalillo spent that year in Triple-A before debuting in the big leagues the following season.
Listed at 5’7″ and 150 pounds, Davalillo was a high-contact hitter with a strong defensive reputation. He won a Gold Glove in his first full season in 1964. He was an All-Star selection the following year, receiving down-ballot MVP votes after hitting .301/.344/.372 and stealing 26 bases. The left-hander’s offensive numbers varied over the next few years, although he continued to play regularly in Cleveland for a while.
During the 1968 campaign, the Indians dealt Davalillo to the Angels for former All-Star Jimmie Hall. He swiped 25 bases while combining for a .277/.301/.355 batting line between the two clubs. That was the final year in which he reached 500 plate appearances, but he carved out an extended run thereafter as a depth outfielder.
Davalillo played in the big leagues through 1980. He had multi-year stints with the Cardinals, Pirates, A’s and Dodgers over that stretch. Davalillo was part of pennant-winning rosters with the latter three of those organizations. He was part of the 1971 Pittsburgh team and ’73 Oakland clubs that won the World Series.
Over a major league career that spanned parts of 16 seasons, he hit .279/.315/.364. Davalillo picked up 36 homers, surpassed 1100 hits and swiped 125 bases. He was a Gold Glove winner, All-Star, and two-time champion. MLBTR sends our condolences to Davalillo’s family, friends and loved ones.
2023 Rule 5 Draft Results
The 2023 Rule 5 draft will begin at 1pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in Nashville.
As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.
The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2023 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2024 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs, such as Ryan Noda going from the Dodgers to the Athletics and Blake Sabol going from the Pirates to the Giants.
This post will be updated as the draft continues. Here is the order…
1. Athletics: RHP Mitch Spence (Yankees)
2. Royals: RHP Matt Sauer (Yankees)
3. Rockies: RHP Anthony Molina (Rays)
4. White Sox: LHP Shane Drohan (Red Sox)
5. Nationals: SS Nasim Nuñez (Marlins)
6. Cardinals: RHP Ryan Fernandez (Red Sox)
7. Angels: pass
8. Mets: RHP Justin Slaten (Rangers); Mets later traded Slaten to the Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons* and cash considerations.
9. Pirates: pass
10. Guardians: 3B Deyvison De Los Santos (Diamondbacks)
11. Tigers: pass
12. Red Sox: pass
13. Giants: pass
14. Reds: pass
15. Padres: RHP Stephen Kolek (Mariners)
16. Yankees: pass
17. Cubs: pass
18. Marlins: pass
19. Diamondbacks: pass
20. Twins: pass
21. Mariners: pass
22. Blue Jays: pass
23. Rangers: RHP Carson Coleman (Yankees)
24. Phillies: pass
25. Astros: pass
26. Brewers: pass
27. Rays: pass
28. Dodgers: pass
29. Orioles: pass
30. Braves: pass
The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include 1B Seth Beer going from the Diamondbacks to the Pirates while the Yankees took RHP Kervin Castro from the Astros.
* (Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Ammons was going to the Mets. Joel Sherman of The New York Post added that Ammons and cash were being exchanged for Slaten.
Guardians Win Draft Lottery
The second ever MLB draft lottery was conducted at the Winter Meetings this afternoon. The Guardians were surprisingly awarded the first overall pick, followed by the Reds and Rockies. Cleveland entered the event with just a 2% chance of securing the highest selection.
Cincinnati also surprisingly drew near the top of the league. The Reds’ chances of landing the first pick were less than 1%. While they didn’t quite get to #1, they jump up to second despite having the 14th-worst record this year.
Here’s the first round order:
- Guardians
- Reds
- Rockies
- Athletics
- White Sox
- Royals
- Cardinals
- Angels
- Pirates
- Nationals
- Tigers
- Red Sox
- Giants
- Cubs
- Mariners
- Marlins
- Brewers
- Rays
- Mets
- Blue Jays
- Twins
- Orioles
- Dodgers
- Padres
- Yankees
- Braves
- Phillies
- Astros
- Diamondbacks
- Rangers
As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all had identical chances of landing the top selection.
All non-playoff teams ostensibly have a chance to win the lottery. However, the CBA also prevents a team that is not a revenue sharing recipient from landing within the top six in consecutive seasons. That ruled out the Nationals this year, as they selected 2nd overall a season ago. (As an interesting aside, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America relays that a ball for Washington was actually chosen on the initial drawing for the first pick. As a result of the CBA provision capping them from picking higher than 10th, that result was voided. Cleveland’s winning ball was drawn on the second trial.)
This year, the A’s, Royals and Rockies had the best chance of securing the #1 overall selection. Each had an 18.3% probability for the pick. The White Sox (14.7%) and Cardinals (8.3%) had the fourth and fifth highest odds, respectively.
Also of note: none of the Mets, Yankees or Padres were drawn into the top six. Those teams surpassed the third luxury tax tier. As a result, their highest choices were dropped by 10 spots apiece. Had any of them received a lottery pick, their second-highest pick would have been moved back instead.
The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.
While the 2023 draft was extremely highly regarded at the top — particularly with the first five selections — the ’24 class isn’t as lauded. Much can change with the upcoming amateur baseball season in the spring, of course, but early indications are that having a top selection may not be quite as impactful as it would be in a typical season (and certainly not last summer). Baseball America recently updated its Top 100 draft prospects.
Guardians Expected To Keep 2024 Payroll At 2023 Levels
The Guardians have long run a payroll at or near the bottom of the league, with a payroll in the bottom third of the league in each of the last four seasons and eleven of the last fourteen years per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 2023 was no exception to that, as the club’s payroll sat at just $89MM, the sixth-lowest figure in the majors. Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports that the austerity of recent seasons isn’t expected to change in 2024, as the club expects to run a payroll at a similar level next season.
RosterResource projects the Guardians for a $94MM payroll in 2024 as things stand, meaning that Cleveland essentially has no room for further additions without cutting costs elsewhere on the roster. As Meisel notes, further additions are all but necessary in the outfield if the Guardians hope to compete in 2024 following a 76-86 performance that saw them finish ahead of only the lowly White Sox and Royals in the notoriously weak AL Central. Those struggles can primarily be traced back to the club’s woeful offense, which produced a wRC+ of just 92 in 2024, MLB’s ninth-worst figure. Those offensive struggles, in turn, connect back to a disastrous outfield situation; Cleveland’s outfielders slashed just .253/.312/.344 in 2023, with a 84 wRC+ that narrowly avoids being the worst in the majors thanks to Kansas City’s figure of 82.
With no payroll space remaining and a projected outfield of Steven Kwan, Myles Straw, and Ramon Laureano headed into 2024, Meisel suggests that Cleveland brass may have their hand forced into freeing up payroll space with a trade of longtime ace Shane Bieber or even shopping closer Emmanuel Clase, whose $20MM extension prior to the 2022 season has become one of the league’s best values thanks to back-to-back All Star campaigns the past two seasons. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Bieber for a $12.2MM salary in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, while Clase is slated to earn $2.9MM in 2024.
Trading Clase, Meisel notes, would require the Guardians to be “overwhelmed” by an offer for the 25-year-old. That’s hardly a surprise, given the five seasons of affordable club control remaining on the closer’s contract and his resume over the past three seasons, which includes a sterling 1.97 ERA and 110 saves in 131 chances. That being said, it’s worth noting that the Guardians swung a deal earlier this offseason to acquire Scott Barlow from the Padres. Though Barlow is coming off a down year split between the Royals and Padres in 2023, the righty was among the better closers in the game for the Royals in 2021 and 2022, with a 2.30 ERA and 3.13 FIP. Speculatively speaking, the addition of Barlow could make the Guardians more amenable to dealing Clase, as they would have a clear internal option for the ninth inning with closing experience lined up to take over for him headed into next season.
Bieber, on the other hand, would not be as difficult to pry away, as Meisel suggests that Bieber’s trade value has depreciated in recent years and the Guardians would be “selling low” on Bieber in any trade. From 2019-22, Bieber was among the league’s most effective starters with a 2.91 ERA and 2.95 ERA across 588 1/3 innings of work. Things took a turn for the worse this year, however, as the 28-year-old made just 21 starts due to struggles with elbow inflammation that left him shut down for much of the summer. What’s more, Bieber’s results were diminished when he was able to take the field: his 3.80 ERA and 3.86 FIP, while still above average, were pedestrian by his standards and he posted a career-worst 20.1% strikeout rate. Those potential red flags haven’t stopped teams from showing interest in Bieber’s services, as at least the Cubs and Reds have both inquired after the right-hander this winter.
That said, with arms such as Dylan Cease, Tyler Glasnow, and Corbin Burnes rumored to be available this offseason, it’s easy to see why Bieber may be a less appealing trade target than the aforementioned names. A strong start to the season from Bieber could substantially improve his stock on the trade market, meaning it could make plenty of sense for the Guardians to hold onto the righty entering the season before re-evaluating at the deadline. Such a plan, however, would likely require the club to get creative in their search for outfield solutions. While the club has a surplus of young infield options, Meisel suggests that the club is reluctant to thin out its depth in that area of the roster.
Meisel does note one potential ray of hope for the Guardians regarding their payroll situation: their broadcasting revenue situation. The Guardians are one of many teams thrust into an uncertain revenue situation by the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, and a report last month indicated the Diamond could drop the Guardians from their broadcasting deal headed into 2024. While that could leave the club without as much as $60MM in broadcast revenue next season, Meisel also notes that the club could find itself with enough additional room in its baseball operations budget to make some minor upgrades to the roster without cutting additional salary as they “gain additional clarity” on their broadcasting situation.
Shane Bieber Reportedly Open To Extension Following Potential Trade
Guardians righty Shane Bieber is one of the more prominent names on the offseason trade market, with the Cubs and Reds among the many teams to check in thus far. Bieber is slated to become a free agent next offseason and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12.2MM this coming season, giving him the look of an affordable one-year rental for a team on the lookout for rotation upgrades. However, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Bieber is at least open to the idea of signing an extension with a team that acquires him. Presumably, that’d mean he’s open to a long-term deal in Cleveland as well, although it’s not clear that the generally frugal Guardians would be amenable to that after already hammering out nine-figure extensions with Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez in recent years.
One could argue that it’s natural for Bieber to take this approach, given that he missed more than two months late in the 2023 season with elbow inflammation. He made it back to the mound and looked healthy in a pair of late-season starts, but he’s seen his velocity dip by about three miles per hour since its peak and has a number of red flags in his profile, including strikeout, walk, swinging-strike, chase and ground-ball rates that have all trended in the wrong direction. There’s some logic to taking the risk-averse approach and locking in a long-term deal this offseason.
On the other hand, it’s far more common for players to spurn extension overtures at this stage of their original club control window — particularly following a trade. Players often want to get a feel for their new organization (coaching staff, teammates, competitive outlook).
Furthermore, while Bieber might not command the type of deal he once looked destined for when he was taking home AL Cy Young honors in 2020, he’s still clearly a talented pitcher. The market for even third/fourth starters has progressed over the past couple years, too, evidenced by contracts like the four-year deals awarded to Taijuan Walker ($72MM) and Jameson Taillon ($68MM). Bieber is only 28 (29 in May) and would turn 30 in the first year of a theoretical free-agent deal (or extension). With any form of bounceback season in terms of health, if not performance, he’d have a case for at least a four-year deal.
It’s rare, although not unprecedented for teams to grant extension windows as a conditional element of a trade. Most recently, the Reds simultaneously acquired and extended Sonny Gray in a trade with the Yankees, although that was four years ago. More likely is a scenario where Bieber is simply traded to another club and the two parties spend the remainder of the offseason discussing a potential long-term deal.
Bieber’s openness to an extension might improve his trade value a bit, but one would imagine that openness would ultimately depend on where he’s traded. Using a pair of teams to which he’s already been connected, it’s easier to see a big-payroll team like the Cubs pony up on a long-term pact than it would be a smaller-payroll club like the Reds, who’ve shied away from long-term deals over the past few offseasons. Cincinnati did extend Hunter Greene, but was was a pre-arb deal that isn’t really comparable to Bieber when he’s at five-plus years of service.
While it’s interesting to hear that any prominent player who’s only a year from the open market is amenable to forgoing that right, it’s simultaneously difficult to imagine it happening. Bieber made only two starts in his return from that months-long stay on the injured list, which isn’t much for a new club to go off of when weighing whether to sign him for on a long-term arrangement. From Bieber’s vantage point, it’d be a surprise to see him sign for anything less than those aforementioned Taillon and Walker deals, given his track record. Prior to the 2023 season, he looked like a candidate for a $100MM+ deal in free agency.
The 2023 season tells another story, though. Bieber’s 3.80 ERA, 20.1% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate, 47.2% grounder rate, 91.6 mph average fastball and career-low swinging-strike and chase rates (10.5% and 30.6%) all have the look of a mid-rotation arm rather than an ace and are are all reasons to exercise caution. An uptick in velocity or reversal of course in some combination of those declining rate stats next season would go a long ways toward bolstering his stock. Perhaps Bieber and a new team (or the Guardians themselves) could find some kind of middle ground, but his recent injury troubles — he also missed two months with a shoulder strain in 2021 — and diminished performance might make it particularly difficult to find a middle ground.
Yankees Claim Oscar Gonzalez From Guardians
The Yankees have claimed outfielder Oscar Gonzalez off waivers from the Guardians, reports Jack Curry of YES Network. There wasn’t any public indication that Gonzalez was removed from the Cleveland roster but they evidently tried to pass him through waivers without success. Cleveland’s 40-man roster is now at 39 while the Yankees are at 37.
Gonzalez, 26 in January, is coming off a dismal season in 2023. In 54 big league games, he struck out in 25.6% of his plate appearances while walking at just a 2.8% rate. He hit just two home runs and produced a batting line of .214/.239/.312 for a wRC+ of 49.
That was a big drop from a solid rookie season in 2022, wherein Gonzalez hit 11 home runs in 382 plate appearances. His 3.9% walk rate was still well below average but his strikeout rate was a more manageable 19.6%. He slashed .296/.327/.461 overall for a wRC+ of 125. He also became known to many baseball fans for using the SpongeBob SquarePants theme song as his walk-up music.
Despite that strong 2022 campaign, the poor plate discipline is an ongoing issue. He has swung at 49.1% of pitches outside the strike zone in his career, the highest rate among MLB hitters with at least 550 plate appearances over the past two seasons. In 2,734 minor league plate appearances, he has walked in just 109 of them, a 4% rate.
Gonzalez is generally considered a poor defender in an outfield corner and he’s not a huge stolen base threat, so the offense really needs to carry the profile. Chasing pitches off the plate and the resulting lack of walks have always been an issue for him. He hit enough in 2022 to overcome those faults but crashed back to earth in 2023. He clearly fell out of the plans in Cleveland, spending much of this year in the minors and now departing organization completely.
The Yankees are known to be looking for outfield help but Gonzalez is likely to just be a depth pickup. He still has a couple of option years remaining, which means the Yanks can keep him in Triple-A until they need him in the majors, either due to an injury or Gonzalez showing himself to be in good form. While struggling with the Guards last year, he spent a lot of time in Triple-A and hit .287/.323/.496 at that level for a wRC+ of 98.
The Yanks have Aaron Judge in one outfield spot but will likely pursue external additions to fill out a couple more. They have been connected in rumors to players such as Juan Soto of the Padres and free agent Cody Bellinger. How they fare in their pursuits of those players and others will ultimately determine how high Gonzalez is on the depth chart. He figures to be battling players like Everson Pereira, Estevan Florial and Oswaldo Cabrera for playing time as depth outfielders.