When Rockies megastar Nolan Arenado inked a franchise-record $260MM contract extension in February, it was of course assumed that the opt-out clause in his contract was one of Arenado’s demands to increase his leverage. However, it’s since been revealed that it was Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, not Arenado, who pushed for the inclusion of an opt-out clause. At first blush, that’s a questionable negotiating tactic at best. If a team wanted to lock up its star player for the long-run, why would it give him the option to jump ship three years into the contract? The Athletic’s Nick Groke, who spoke to Bridich himself, can provide some insight into the GM’s thinking. It’s left to Rockies fans to decide if they’re satisfied with his justification, which draws on the organization’s history with big contracts for the likes of Troy Tulowitzki and Todd Helton. While Rockies brass aren’t yet concerning themselves with Arenado’s decision, they will have to if the next couple of years play out anything like 2019. With Arenado intent on winning and the franchise preparing for another uninspiring offseason, the outlook for 2020 and beyond may be hampered by apparent financial restrictions. For the time being, though, the possibility of an Arenado opt-out looms as the club embarks on the winter with hopes of returning to the postseason.
Rockies Rumors
Rockies In Need Of Righty Catcher?
Thomas Harding of MLB.com confirms that the Rockies have dismissed several minor league coaches, including longtime Triple-A manager Glenallen Hill (link). Double-A hitting coach Lee Stevens and Single-A hitting coach Norberto Martin will also be let go, according to assistant general manager of player development Zach Wilson.
- In another Rockies item, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post gives an eye toward the defensive improvements made in 2019 by catcher Tony Wolters–while also opining that the club should acquire a veteran backstop to lighten the workload of the light-hitting Wolters (link). As Saunders notes, Wolters, a former second baseman, was charged with just one error last season while throwing out 34% of would-be base stealers, a rate which trailed only J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies. Manager Bud Black, for one, told the Post this year that Wolters had turned himself into “one of the best defensive catchers in baseball”. Unfortunately, the value-added performance hasn’t translated to the plate for the 27-year-old San Diego native, as his .239/.327/.324 line in parts of four seasons would indicate. Weighted runs created plus, which discounts the effect of his offensively friendly Coors Field home, pegs Wolters with a 59 wRC+ in that same timeframe, profiling him as one of the weakest-hitting regulars in the sport. For this reason, Saunders posits that finding a platoon partner for the lefty-swinging Wolters will be a high priority for Rockies GM Jeff Bridich this winter.
The Rockies Need To Make Tough Calls On Some Key Players
The Rockies poured $106MM into their bullpen prior to the 2018 season, signing Wade Davis to a three-year, $52MM contract (the highest annual rate ever promised to a reliever) and inking right-hander Bryan Shaw and lefty Jake McGee to matching three-year, $27MM deals. To this point, none of that trio has pitched up to his abilities, with 2019 being a particularly brutal year thanks to Davis’ stunning struggles. In 42 2/3 innings, Davis posted an 8.65 ERA with career-worst walk and home run rates. Shaw, meanwhile, posted an ERA north of 5.00 for the second straight season, while McGee managed a tolerable 4.35 ERA in an injury-shortened campaign.
Those underperformances not only combined to play a significant role in Colorado’s playoff miss but have also hamstrung the Rockies entering the current offseason. Owner Dick Monfort has plainly stated that the team lacks payroll flexibility. It’s instinctual to suggest that the Rockies need to move some contracts this winter in order to help free up some payroll capacity, but that’s far easier said than done; beyond the poor showings from that high-priced trio of relievers, each has a 2021 option that further complicates matters (hat tip to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post for the observation on Davis and Shaw).
Davis’ contract stipulates that his $15MM option for the 2021 season becomes a player option if he finishes just 30 games in 2020. He’s reached that total in each of the past four seasons. The Rockies (or another team) at least have direct control over that, however, and could simply pitch Davis in a setup or middle relief capacity. Based on his 2019 output, they’d hardly be unjustified in moving him to a lower-leverage role. They already began giving Scott Oberg save opportunities over Davis in 2019 anyhow.
The more problematic contractual options belong to Shaw and McGee, each of whom will see a $9MM option for 2021 become fully guaranteed with a full, healthy season. McGee would need to appear in 65 games next year in order to boost his combined games total from 2019-20 to 110, thus triggering that guarantee. He hasn’t appeared in 65 games since 2014, so perhaps it’s a long shot anyway, but the clause does the Rockies no favors in attempting to move him.
Shaw’s contract is probably the biggest concern. It’s structured the same as McGee’s, in that he’ll trigger his option with 110 appearances between 2019-20. Unlike McGee, though, Shaw was fully healthy in 2019 and took the ball 70 times. He only needs to appear in 40 games next season for another $9MM to be tacked onto that contract. Shaw, who’ll turn 32 this winter, has a 5.61 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 4.1 BB/9 and 1.5 HR/9 in 126 1/3 innings since signing with the Rockies. It’s arguable that they’d be better off releasing him rather than risking that $9MM salary vesting in 2021, but doing so would mean forgoing a chance to shed even a portion of that commitment in a trade.
So if those three deals are all extraordinarily difficult to move, then where else could the Rockies look to create flexibility? Charlie Blackmon’s $108MM contract still has two guaranteed years remaining before he encounters an opt-out provision. He’s owed $21MM in both 2020 and 2021 before he can opt for free agency or a $21MM salary for the 2022 season. His contract has a second player option for 2023 that was initially valued at $8MM, but he’s already well on his way to maxing out the escalators that’d push that option as high as $18MM. Those escalators are based on plate appearances, and Blackmon is already over halfway there after tallying 1330 trips to the dish over the past two seasons.
Were he still an elite all-around player, perhaps that’d be viewed in a different light. But while Blackmon is still a terrific hitter (.314/.364/.576 in 2019), he’s no longer a base-stealing threat and was widely panned by defensive statistics in 2019. Just three years after a 43-steal campaign in 2016, Blackmon went 2-for-7 in stealing bags in 2019. Defensive Runs Saved (-8), Ultimate Zone Rating (-10.6) and Outs Above Average (-9) all soured on his glovework, too, even with a shift from center field to right field.
With two years and $25MM to go on Ian Desmond’s ill-fated $70MM contract, there’s little hope of moving him. The same is true of Daniel Murphy (owed $14MM in 2020) after he logged an 87 OPS+ / 86 wRC+ in an injury-shortened season in 2019. And, of course, the Rockies would surely be loath to trade franchise icon Nolan Arenado just one year into his record-setting extension (seven years, $234MM in new money, bringing the total to eight years and $260MM).
So how can the Rockies go about cleaning up the payroll a bit while addressing some holes on the roster? Their best bet would be to trade some higher-end arbitration-eligible players. Fans would bristle at the notion of trading Trevor Story and, perhaps to a lesser extent, righty Jon Gray. But both players have just two seasons of club control remaining before free agency. An extension for either doesn’t seem especially likely when Monfort is already citing payroll issues. Story is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $11.5MM in 2020 while Gray is pegged at $5.6MM. Not only that, but both would assuredly net some high-end young talent that could strengthen the farm. Plus, the Rockies have a premium middle-infield prospect in Brendan Rodgers who could hypothetically replace Story in 2020 (if he recovers sufficiently from shoulder surgery).
General manager Jeff Bridich’s comments at the team’s year-end press conference heavily suggested that he believes this club can turn things around, as currently constructed. That could prove to be the case, but this is a team that finished 20 games under .500 with a -123 run differential. The Rockies didn’t just finish 35 games out of first place, they finished 18 back from a Wild Card spot and 14 games back from even sitting in second place in the NL West. And they already have more money projected for next year’s payroll (including arbitration projections) than they spent on the roster in 2019. This feels like a team that needs a lot more than just a handful of rebounds to get back on track. Bridich and has staff have some tough choices this winter, but cashing in on two of his best trade assets in Story and Gray would be a logical start.
The Ian Desmond Problem
After a 2019 season that saw things go entirely sideways in Denver, changes figure to be afoot for the Rockies this offseason. Despite returning most of a roster that managed a postseason berth in 2018, Bud Black’s club whimpered to a 71-91 record this past season and likely would have ended up in the NL West cellar had it not been for a circumspective second-half collapse on the part of the rival Padres.
Nick Groke of The Athletic, for one, is already musing on potential changes that GM Jeff Bridich could make in an effort to get the club back in contention for 2020 (link). Specifically, Groke points out several players who could be on the “hot seat” this winter, given the club’s current 40-man roster squeeze. Five players currently on the club’s 60-day injured list–Brendan Rodgers, Scott Oberg, Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson and Chad Bettis–will need to be moved off the IL this offseason, necessitating at least five impending roster decisions for Bridich. Groke identifies pitcher Jeff Hoffman as the man that should fall firmly into his club’s roster trimming crosshairs, as his age (26) and near-complete lack of production (6.11 ERA in 209.1 career innings) render his former top-50 prospect status little more than a wistful memory. Groke names ten other players as possible roster casualties, although Bridich signee Ian Desmond–who has produced a cumulative -1.7 fWAR in three Colorado seasons after agreeing to a 5-year/$70MM deal in 2016–is conspicuously absent from his list.
Desmond has two years and $25MM in guarantees remaining on his deal (the pact includes a $15MM option for 2022 which is attached to a $2MM buyout), but it may be time to wonder if the club should swallow bravely and push the ’eject’ button on the ill-fated Desmond deal. While it would be enticing to believe that the former shortstop could be on the brink of a turnaround, there would be little hard evidence to support such a case: his .304 BABIP in three Colorado seasons is only marginally below his .321 career marker, and his 2019 XWOBA of .309 was right in line with his WOBA of .317; moreover, Desmond is 34 years old, and his troubles at the plate are really only the beginning of his performance problems.
When Desmond came to the Rockies in 2017, he was a distinct shortstop/centerfielder hybrid who, despite something of an inconsistent offensive track record, offered somewhat stable value on the bases and in the field. As you might expect for a player reaching his mid-thirties, much of that athletically dependent ability has appeared to abandon Desmond. 2019 marked the first time since 2012 that the native Floridian recorded a negative baserunning metric (-1.7 BSR), while his work in the Rockies outfield was generally a horrorshow. A move back to centerfield produced a -19 DRS mark in 2019 for Desmond, with UZR also generally thumbing its nose at his up-the-middle efforts (-7.2 UZR in 2019 at CF).
Admittedly, metrics indicated a roughly average performance for Desmond in 300-plus innings in left field, but can the club continue to justify running out an average-fielding corner outfielder with negative basepath value and a bat that has been markedly below-average in his three years in Colorado? After all, Desmond’s combined 80 wRC+ during his three years in purple and black is, in itself, indicative of a player who probably should not be long for a major league roster. Add in the other limitations to Desmond’s current game, and the patina of “veteran leadership” falls short of explaining his prospective inclusion on Colorado’s 2020 roster.
It is exceedingly rare to see club’s simply cut bait on $25MM in financial commitment. Still, when winning takes precedent, there is a recent parallel for weighting on-field results over balance sheet concerns. The Red Sox–though operating in an entirely different financial habitat than the Rockies–have continued to pay handsomely for the services of outfielder Rusney Castillo; all they’ve asked of Castillo in return is that he kindly provide those services to the Red Sox of Pawtucket, rather than Boston. Point being: when a pennant-seeking organization recognizes a player can’t play up to his contract, they do whatever it takes to sidestep a sunk cost fallacy. If the Rockies plan on contending in the next two seasons, they might be well served to begin their offseason roster trimming with a rather painful decision, rather than paring away mid-20’s players who may yet have their best baseball ahead of them.
Bryan Shaw Reportedly Drew Interest At Trade Deadline
- Rockies reliever Bryan Shaw just wrapped up his second straight disappointing season, but there was “some deadline interest” in him over the summer, Thomas Harding of MLB.com writes. Just as no trade came together then, it seems doubtful to happen going forward. For one, Shaw has logged a brutal 5.61 ERA/5.07 FIP with 7.96 K/9 and 4.05 BB/9 in his two-season, 126 2/3-inning Rockies tenure. He’s owed another $9MM in 2020 on top of it, and there’s an incentive in his deal that could turn a $9MM club option for 2021 into a guarantee. That’ll happen if Shaw appears in 40 games next year and finishes the season healthy. The 31-year-old racked up 70 appearances in 2019, so it would take a drastic fall in usage to prevent his ’21 option from vesting.
Monfort: Rockies Lack Payroll Flexibility
Not that it was ever much in question, but Rockies owner Dick Monfort confirmed in comments today that the organization won’t be able to spend its way out of its roster difficulties. “We don’t have a lot of flexibility next year,” Monfort said of the team’s payroll situation, as Nick Groke of The Athletic was among those to cover (Twitter links).
Appearing at an end-of-season press conference alongside GM Jeff Bridich and manager Bud Black, Monfort also commented on the team’s just-announced TV deal. The contract, which begins with the start of the 2021 season, is “not as lucrative as I wanted it to be,” says the Colorado franchise owner.
It’d be foolish to rule out contention for a club that features some impressive core talent and that made back-to-back postseason appearances in the prior two campaigns. But much went wrong for the Rox in 2019 and there aren’t many clear avenues to improving — at least, beyond getting the team’s existing players ready to roll for the new campaign.
Last year’s Rockies club opened with a $145MM payroll, marking the sixth-straight year in which the organization set a new high-water mark. That tally was reached in part with a series of multi-year contracts, many of which remain on the books.
Looking ahead to 2020, there’s already $120MM on the ledger, some portion of which is dedicated to underperforming assets. That’s before accounting for arbitration pay raises to Trevor Story, Jon Gray, Scott Oberg, David Dahl, and others. And it doesn’t include any new acquisitions.
There are other interesting observations still rolling out of the presser, with Michael Spencer of CBS Denver documenting some items of interest via video on his Twitter feed. Some recent comments from star third baseman Nolan Arenado featured heavily. Bridich contested any suggestion that the club has adopted or will take up a rebuilding posture. He also said the club is content with the opt-out clause included in Arenado’s contract. Indeed, the GM says it was his idea to bake it in. (Why? He spoke obliquely of “some of the realities that can exist” and “giving people the opportunity to take a breath, at a certain time period, to say is this right for me right now?” Of course, it’s also possible the team pushed the concept as a way of giving non-financial value.)
Looking ahead, the pitching staff is probably the key area of focus. Though the club was also distinctly below-average offensively, it’s easier to imagine relying upon internal strides in that area. Getting arms to Coors Field remains a difficult task, however, which helps to explain how the club ended up with some less-than-desirable reliever contracts. Bridich says the organization is “always looking” at ways to get quality players in, though the above-noted limitations figure to make that tough. The roster architect suggested that he remains confident in a group that certainly has been more effective in the recent past. As he put it, “I think that there still is a foundation as long as certain guys bounce back.”
Rockies Announce New TV Deal
The Rockies have announced the extension of their contract with AT&T SportsNet, as Kyle Newman of the Denver Post was among those to report. Details on the length and value of the pact are not known.
These entities already had an arrangement for the 2020 season pursuant to their preexisting agreement. Earlier this year, owner Dick Monfort referred to the TV deal as being three or four years old, so that was obviously a shorter-term arrangement than those we’ve seen in some other circumstances.
In terms of the money involved, Monfort had cited a “sizable jump” in the rights fee amount in the prior deal. In its breakdown of the Rockies’ financial situation, Forbes claims that the present TV rights fee sits at an average of $20MM annually. The new one, it estimates, could double that sum — though whether it has in fact done so is not known. Whatever the precise amount of the past and future rights fees, it’s not likely an industry-leading amount.
It’s certainly possible that the Rox have boosted their earnings in a meaningful way, though this renegotiation doesn’t exactly come as a surprise. And the organization did not exactly help its leverage on the field, limping to a 71-91 record after two straight Wild Card campaigns.
With numerous roster needs to address, the Rockies will need every available cent of payroll they can muster to turn things around. The club ran its Opening Day payroll up to a team-high $145MM this year and already has $120MM committed (before accounting for significant arbitration raises) for 2020.
Raimel Tapia, 2020 Left Fielder?
- Raimel Tapia projects as an everyday left fielder for the Rockies in 2020, Nick Groke of the Athletic (subscription required) writes, which should help a player who seemed to get better with more regular playing time this season. As a highly-regarded prospect coming out of Colorado’s farm system, Tapia received only 239 MLB plate appearances from 2016-18 before getting more of an extended look this season. While Tapia has only a .276/.310/.418 slash line (74 wRC+) over 442 PA, he has also battled injuries and didn’t get many consistent starts until late July, Groke noted. Sticking with Tapia as the mostly everyday left fielder would reduce Ian Desmond to a backup role, though the highly-paid veteran hasn’t done enough to merit more at-bats over three disappointing years in Colorado. There’s also the possibility, however, that the Rockies could trade Tapia in the offseason to address other roster needs.
Examining The Rockies' 2020 Rotation Options
- The Rockies’ troubled pitching situation is examined by The Athletic’s Nick Groke (subscription required), who projects that German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, and Jon Gray will headline the 2020 rotation. The last two spots are up in the air between such names as Peter Lambert, Antonio Senzatela, Jeff Hoffman, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Tim Melville, Rico Garcia, Chris Rusin, and Ryan Castellani. While there’s certainly room for an external addition, the Rockies have now gone several years without signing a veteran to a significant Major League contract — Kyle Kendrick was the last, back in the 2014-15 offseason. It doesn’t seem like this trend will change this winter, as the team doesn’t have much payroll space available (due in part to a lot of ill-fated free agent signings in general in recent years). There’s also the fact that free agent pitchers who have a choice of multiple teams aren’t likely to want to come to Coors Field without a significant overpay.
Kyle Freeland Activated From Injured List
- Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has been activated by the club and started tonight’s game against the Dodgers. Logging two scoreless innings in something of an “opener” capacity this evening, Freeland penned something of a modestly positive chapter in what has been an otherwise forgettable 2019 saga. With a sky-high 6.98 ERA (6.13 FIP) in 99.1 innings entering tonight’s game, Freeland has been a chief culprit in Colorado’s ’19 pitching woes. Interestingly, Jeff Saunders of the Denver Post penned a column today examining baseball’s offensive explosion in 2019, citing Freeland as one player who will be difficult to evaluate this offseason in part because of the possible “juiced” quality of this year’s baseball (link). Said Saunders: “In my opinion, the “juiced baseball” really hurt Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland this season. I’m not making excuses for Freeland’s 6.98 ERA and 25 home runs served up in 20 starts, because he was clearly off his game and his mechanics were out of whack. But I also think it’s true that Freeland became a little gun shy because his slider wasn’t breaking as it should and he gave up a number of cheap home runs.” There may be some merit to this thinking. Freeland posted a 22.9% HR/FB rate this season while home run records were shattered league-wide.
