Rockies Rumors

Bill DeWitt Jr. On Cardinals’ Payroll

By Connor Byrne | January 20, 2020 at 11:05pm CDT

Recent reports have connected the Cardinals to a couple high-profile names – their top free agent, outfielder Marcell Ozuna, as well as Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado – but pump the brakes if you expect a major acquisition prior to the season. Owner Bill DeWitt Jr. said Monday that he doesn’t think there’s a “significant” pickup in the offing, adding that it wouldn’t fit the Cardinals’ “model,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.

Between Ozuna and Arenado, the latter would unquestionably be the more impactful get, and he made it clear Monday he’s displeased with the Rockies. However, according to DeWitt, the Cardinals are “not actively” looking to make a trade. Arenado’s enormous contract (seven years, $234MM, including $35MM in 2020) may be part of the reason why.

The Cardinals, who began last year’s NL Central-winning campaign with a franchise-record Opening-Day payroll of just over $162MM, already have $168MM-plus in commitments heading into this season, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. If we’re to take DeWitt at his word, that’s about all they want to spend. The team’s “pushing the envelope” by even being in the $170MM range, per DeWitt, who did note the Cards would consider bumping that total “up a little bit.” But there’s nothing “little” about Arenado’s salary, and DeWitt revealed that, at this point, they “can’t be in that kind of ($35 million) range” on an addition(s) to their roster.

Ozuna’s next deal will be worth far less than Arenado’s, of course, but even he could prove too rich for the Cardinals’ blood. Regardless, they’re not pursuing Ozuna with much gusto, as Goold writes they aren’t “nearly as aggressive as other teams” on trying to reel in the qualifying offer recipient. Therefore, it appears St. Louis will enter the season with a mix of several other in-house options as their outfield choices.

Assuming the Cardinals don’t come away with Ozuna, Arenado or any other big names, this will go down as a quiet winter for the club. So far, Korean left-hander Kwang-hyun Kim – whom they signed to a modest guarantee worth $8MM over two years – has been the Cardinals’ most noteworthy outside acquisition. Aside from winning the derby for Kim, they’ve re-signed righty Adam Wainwright and catcher Matt Wieters for a combined $7MM.

Nolan Arenado: “I Feel Disrespected” By Rockies

By Jeff Todd | January 20, 2020 at 8:29pm CDT

On the same night that Rockies GM Jeff Bridich said that star third baseman Nolan Arenado wouldn’t be traded, the third baseman laid bare his less-than-positive feelings towards the organization. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post was on the story in both cases.

“I really don’t care what’s being said,” Arenado stated to Saunders. “I just know that I feel disrespected over there.” He offered similarly antagonistic words to MLB.com’s Thomas Harding, writing in a text that “there’s a lot of disrespect from people there that I don’t want to be a part of.”

Arenado declined to elaborate initially. But he noted in a follow-up statement to Harding (Twitter link) that he isn’t upset at being mentioned in trade chatter. Per Arenado: “I’m not mad at trade rumors. There’s more to it than that.”

The source of Arenado’s frustration still isn’t entirely clear. But there’s little doubt the Rockies’ downturn in 2019 features prominently. And his expression of anger coincides with — even if it doesn’t specifically relate to — the trade speculation that has hovered over his name this winter.

The star third baseman has no-trade rights, meaning he’d have to be involved at some point in any trade scenario. Whether and to what extent he has been in communication with the Rockies about trade scenarios is entirely unknown. There has been no public indication that he was specifically pressing the organization for a trade. Arenado’s pointed phrasing from late last season — “it feels like a rebuild” — drew attention, but seems to have been taken out of context.

Whether these new comments will have any practical impact remains to be seen. The sides remain bound by a seven-year deal, unless and until Arenado opts out (after 2021) or approves a swap orchestrated by the team. Bridich’s comments seemed designed to bring this month-long trade drama to a close. But now Arenado has given a tantalizing look into his thinking that’s sure to draw even greater scrutiny to his relationship and future with the Colorado organization.

Rockies GM Jeff Bridich Says Nolan Arenado Won’t Be Traded

By Jeff Todd | January 20, 2020 at 6:40pm CDT

Rockies GM Jeff Bridich has all but shut the door on a potential offseason trade involving star third baseman Nolan Arenado, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports. Per Bridich, the Rockies “have listened to teams regarding Nolan and really nothing has come of it.”

Accordingly, he said, the club is “going to move forward pretty much as we expected — with Nolan in the purple and black and as our third baseman.” If there was any uncertainty in that phrasing, Bridich seemingly covered it with an additional statement (which doubles as an exhortation to the fans and media): “So we can put this to bed and collectively look forward to the upcoming season and work toward that.”

This is about as much finality as one can reasonably expect to hear from an executive regarding a run of trade rumors — though there is one rather memorable example that went a bit further. In theory, perhaps, the situation could yet change. Bridich indicates that the Rockies didn’t hear anything enticing from rival organizations, but it’s always possible the offers could increase.

Even if there’s some hypothetical possibility of a revival of offseason talks, it seems the bar is now raised rather substantially for a deal. The Rockies surely (and understandably) wish to avoid major uncertainty in the run-up to Spring Training. And now their top baseball executive has very nearly promised that the club’s biggest star will be in Colorado for 2020.

The Rangers, Cardinals, Braves, and others were connected to Arenado at various points in time. It was never clear that talks advanced beyond preliminary stages. While Bridich’s comments confirm that some discussions occurred, it’s fair to wonder whether the smoke really suited the fire.

On paper, it never seemed especially likely Arenado would be moved unless the Rox decided they simply had to move his contract off the books. He’s slated to earn $234MM over seven seasons, which is a fair rate for a player of his abilities and age. But Arenado will have an opt-out opportunity after two seasons, thus limiting the upside. There just isn’t a huge amount of anticipated surplus value in the contract. On the Rockies’ side, meanwhile, it would’ve been hard to part with such a central player unless significant talent came back in return — even given the obvious roster challenges facing the club this winter.

Rockies’ Justin Lawrence Suspended For PED Use

By Anthony Franco | January 17, 2020 at 4:31pm CDT

Rockies’ reliever Justin Lawrence has been suspended without pay for 80 games, MLB announced today. He tested positive for dehydrochlormethyltestosterone, a performance-enhancing substance.

Lawrence, 25, was selected to the Rockies’ 40-man roster last offseason, although he has yet to make his MLB debut. After breaking out with a strong season in High-A and in the Arizona Fall League in 2018, Lawrence regressed last season. In 37 innings between Triple-A Albuquerque and Double-A Hartford, he managed just an 8.76 ERA with 29 walks and 32 strikeouts. In their postseason write-up of the Rockies’ farm system, Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen called Lawrence “an upper-90’s siderarmer with very poor pitch execution.”

Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Rotations

By Connor Byrne | January 15, 2020 at 12:44am CDT

We checked in last week on what, if anything, the five lowest-scoring offenses of 2019 have done to improve themselves this winter. Let’s now take a look at whether any of the five starting rotations that posted the highest ERAs last year have gotten better this offseason. Free agency won’t offer much in the way of help at this point, so for the most part, what you see here is probably what you’ll get..

Colorado Rockies (5.87 ERA/5.31 FIP; current depth chart)

Assembling a competent starting staff has regularly been a problem for the Rockies, who are stuck playing half their games at the unkind confines of Coors Field. It was a different story in 2018, the year the Rockies boasted a high-end starting staff, but things took a sharp turn for the worse last season. Aside from German Marquez and Jon Gray, who continued their strong production, no one from the Rockies’ rotation performed well. Kyle Freeland suffered through a disastrous campaign after posting a Cy Young-caliber 2018, while Antonio Senzatela, Peter Lambert, Jeff Hoffman, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Tim Melville, Tyler Anderson, Chad Bettis and Rico Garcia combined for woeful numbers across a combined 83 starts. So what have the Rockies done since to address their starting group? Nothing of note. It seems they’ll count on a bunch of their holdovers to turn in better showings, though their staff will take a big hit in the event they deal Gray (a potential trade candidate) before the season.

Los Angeles Angels (5.64 ERA/5.41 FIP; current depth chart)

The Angels’ rotation suffered a terrible blow in the fall of 2018 when Shohei Ohtani underwent Tommy John surgery, costing him all of last season, and then tragedy struck last July when Tyler Skaggs passed away. Considering the circumstances, it’s not surprising the Angels’ staff reeled last season. Nevertheless, adding reinforcements was clearly in order for this winter. The problem is that the Angels still haven’t found a way to acquire a proven front-of-the-rotation type, which many expected to them to get when the winter began. Ohtani’s back, which is a major plus. Meanwhile, the acquisitions of innings-eaters Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran should help matters, but they’re not going to frighten opposing offenses. The Angels figure to keep trying to better their rotation in the coming months, though the open market has dried up and teams seemingly aren’t champing at the bit to move big-time starters via trade now.

Baltimore Orioles (5.57 ERA/5.72 FIP; current depth chart)

Bundy, who led the O’s rotation in innings last season, is now gone. 2019 success story John Means remains in place, and Alex Cobb will be back in the wake of injuries that limited him to three starts. Those two aside, there’s little in the way of established starters for rebuilding Baltimore, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see the club try to find a cheap starter(s) in free agency before the season begins. The team did make an interesting move when it used the second pick of the Rule 5 Draft on 25-year-old righty Brandon Bailey, whom Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs calls a “spin rate monster.”

Detroit Tigers (5.51 ERA/4.66 FIP; current depth chart)

Detroit’s rotation mix actually looks pretty promising, though it’s possible the team will weaken the mix by trading Matthew Boyd before the season. As of now, he’s back at the helm of a group that also got respectable performances from Spencer Turnbull and Daniel Norris last year. Stud prospects Casey Mize and Matt Manning are gaining on the majors, meanwhile, and Michael Fulmer should factor back in sometime this year after Tommy John surgery kept him away in 2019. Furthermore, the Tigers just signed the durable Ivan Nova to a cheap contract to serve as their resident back-end innings-eater. Jordan Zimmerman, arguably the weakest link in the chain, is also the most expensive. Mercifully for the Tigers, he’s finally entering the last season of what has been an albatross contract for the club.

Pittsburgh Pirates (5.19 ERA/4.78 FIP; current depth chart)

The Pirates, already without staff leader Jameson Taillon for most of last season, suffered a horrid blow when he underwent a TJ procedure in August. He won’t be part of the 2020 staff as a result, leaving holdovers Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams at the helm of an uninspiring-looking bunch. Barring a trade, the hope is that the once-terrific Archer will put a nightmarish first year and a half as a Pirate behind him. Archer was markedly better as last season progressed, so there does seem to be some hope for a full-season bounce-back effort. The unit will include some speculative candidates in Tommy John rehabber Chad Kuhl and talented 23-year-old Mitch Keller, who struggled as a rookie but remains a premium pitching prospect.

The original version of this post mistakenly indicated that Kuhl underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019. His procedure occurred in September of 2018.

Latest On Braves’ Third Base Plans

By Connor Byrne | January 14, 2020 at 10:05pm CDT

The last elite free agent of the winter came off the board Tuesday when third baseman Josh Donaldson agreed to a four-year, $92MM guarantee with Minnesota. Not only does the addition strengthen an already power-happy Twins offense, but it’s also a significant blow for an Atlanta team that received outstanding production from Donaldson in 2019. The club’s situation at third, where Johan Camargo and Austin Riley are in-house front-runners to take over for Donaldson, now looks far less imposing sans Donaldson.

Camargo was effective as recently as two years ago, but his production nosedived during a season to forget in 2019. Riley’s not far removed from a run as a standout prospect, and he began his major league career well last season. However, thanks largely to a bloated strikeout rate (36.4 percent), he endured enormous struggles as 2019 progressed.

There aren’t any obvious answers left at third in free agency, so the Braves could begin the season with what they have at the position and opt for a power bat at another spot (Marcell Ozuna? Nicholas Castellanos?). On the other hand, there are two all-world trade chips in the Cubs’ Kris Bryant and the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado looming on that market.

While Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the Braves are “expected” to revisit previous talks with the Cubs regarding Bryant, David O’Brien of The Athletic throws a bit of cold water on that. The Braves “haven’t been gung-ho on either,” per O’Brien. As was reported previously, the Braves have concerns over Bryant’s defense. And the former MVP’s contract status figures to help stand in the way of a trade with the Braves or anyone else for at least a little while longer. The Cubs and the rest of the league continue to await word on whether Bryant has one or two years of control left after he filed a service-time grievance in October.

Similarly, there are questions over how much longer it’ll be before Arenado becomes a free agent. Unlike Bryant, Arenado is on a long-term contract – a guaranteed $234MM over seven years – but he will be able to opt out of it after his age-30 season in 2021. The massive amount left on Arenado’s deal, his opt-out rights and a hesitance to surrender multiple prospects for him have led to wariness from the Braves, according to O’Brien.

As of last month, general manager Alex Anthopolous and the Braves were on the hunt for a middle-of-the-order hitter. The hope then was that Donaldson would take on that role again in 2020, but the two-time reigning NL East champions’ lineup suddenly looks much weaker now that he’s gone. With strong free-agent options dwindling, the Braves hardly shoo-ins to land either Bryant or Arenado, and their projected Opening-Day payroll ($140MM) already $5MM higher than last year’s season-ending outlay, it’s unclear where the Braves will go from here.

Cardinals’ Talks For Arenado “Haven’t Gone Anywhere”

By Jeff Todd | January 14, 2020 at 1:30pm CDT

1:30pm: ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that while the Rockies and Cardinals have indeed exchanged some names, their talks on Arenado “haven’t gone anywhere” and the exchange of names “hasn’t been productive.”

11:29am: The Rockies and Cardinals “have begun exchanging names” of players of interest as they attempt to structure a potential deal that would send third baseman Nolan Arenado to St. Louis, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports. The Colorado organization is said to want both MLB and minor-league players to move their franchise cornerstone.

It’s a bit difficult to know what to make of this latest update. On the one had, it’s presented as a step forward. Morosi reported over the weekend that the sides had struck up “preliminary trade negotiations.” He now states that the chatter has “advanced beyond a preliminary stage.”

On the other, it seems hard to imagine that the sides had really been engaged in dialogue of much substance if no names of players other than Arenado even came up. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently explained, the Cards have had “longstanding interest” in Arenado but have “found the Rockies’ asking price prohibitive.” So, it would appear the sides are only now returning to a level of discussion at which they’ve previously engaged without seeing eye to eye.

The real question here remains how motivated the Rockies are about taking advantage of the opportunity to move Arenado’s contract and get something in return. If so, then perhaps it is indeed notable that they are back to swapping possible names with the Cards. It’s obviously not the Rockies’ preference to move their biggest star, but there’s huge risk in holding pat given the roster’s 2019 backslide and a slate of contractual commitments that is straining the payroll that the organization has established.

Morosi does go on to name a few names, though again it is not clear how the information is best interpreted. The Rox have both interest and some misgivings in Dakota Hudson, says Morosi, who echoes Goold’s characterization of the Cards being utterly unwilling to discuss Jack Flaherty. In addition to contemplating Hudson, who certainly has his warts but also has thrown over 200 MLB innings of 3.25 ERA ball and won’t turn 26 until September, the Rox are said to be eyeing up the Cards’ top prospects as well.

This is where the skepticism really enters the picture, because that’s quite a haul of talent. Arenado is obviously well worth it from an on-field perspective, but his contract — which, as already written to death, gives him huge downside protection ($234MM guaranteed) with the upside of opting out after 2021 — is less than a straightforward asset to price. It would be a bit odd to see the Cardinals part with that kind of surplus value for the right to take over such a deal, particularly since the team wasn’t notably connected to free agent Anthony Rendon.

Morosi’s report takes a curious turn when he gets to Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter. While the highly compensated veteran is said to be under consideration in talks, Morosi writes that “the Rockies don’t appear to be mandating his inclusion.” That’s a befuddling way to characterize a 34-year-old player who just wrapped up a subpar season and is owed a hefty $39MM over the next two years (including a buyout on an option). Clearly, the Rox would rather not have that contract; Carpenter would be included to help offset the Arenado obligations.

Once more, it’s tough to know what to make of that curious bit. There’s no chance the Rockies are clamoring for Carpenter, but it’s equally true that the club wouldn’t want the deal to seem publicly like a salary dump. So, perhaps this strained characterization constitutes evidence that the Colorado organization is preparing to sell an all-but-assuredly unpopular trade to a skeptical fan base. Or maybe that’s just reading into things.

Two things seem safe to say at this point: First, that there are reasonably serious discussions involving Arenado, with the Cardinals at least one of the teams engaged with the Rockies. (The Rangers and perhaps others are also seemingly still at least kicking around the periphery.) And second, that there remain a number of significant obstacles that must still be cleared to move an Arenado trade scenario from the realm of hypothetical plausibility to one approaching actualization.

NL Notes: Dodgers, Cards, Arenado, Beltran

By Connor Byrne | January 14, 2020 at 12:41am CDT

The Dodgers lost the 2017 World Series in seven games to a franchise that’s now embroiled in one of the biggest scandals in baseball history. The Astros, who defeated the Dodgers, fired the GM (Jeff Luhnow) and manager (A.J. Hinch) of their championship team Monday after the league determined they were key figures in a sign-stealing scandal from that year. Luhnow and Hinch received one-year suspensions before the Astros dismissed them, while the tea also lost four draft picks (first- and second-rounders in each of the next two years) and earned the maximum fine of $5MM. The Dodgers could perhaps feel slighted as a result of the Astros’ misdeeds, but the organization is prohibited from making any complaints known. The team issued a statement Monday, saying: “All clubs have been asked by Major League Baseball not to comment on today’s punishment of the Houston Astros, as it’s inappropriate to comment on discipline imposed on another club. The Dodgers have also been asked not to comment on any wrongdoing during the 2017 World Series and will have no further comment at this time.”

Cardinals, Rockies Have Reportedly Engaged In Preliminary Arenado Talks

By Anthony Franco | January 12, 2020 at 6:24pm CDT

The Cardinals and Rockies have recently engaged in “preliminary trade negotiations” regarding Nolan Arenado, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Morosi characterizes the Redbirds as “a viable suitor” for the five-time All-Star.

Of course, a deal coming to fruition is far from certain. Indeed, just yesterday, we heard that a St. Louis acquisition of Arenado was unlikely. That the sides are talking could give Cardinals’ fans cause for hope, but it’s hardly proof anything will get across the finish line. Teams surely engage in preliminary negotiations on any number of scenarios without ultimately completing the deal all the time.

Just how far these talks between Colorado and St. Louis have yet progressed isn’t clear. The Cardinals are intent on adding an impact position player this offseason, Morosi notes, although a re-signing of free agent Marcell Ozuna could fill that void. Morosi adds that Dakota Hudson could be a central figure in Arenado talks, although that seems more speculative than a definitive report that Colorado is intent on acquiring the 25-year-old sinkerballer.

As Morosi notes, an Arenado deal would be difficult to pull off, whether for the Cardinals or another suitor. Arenado is due $234MM over the next seven years on the extension he signed last February. That’d be a huge commitment for any acquiring team, but it’s hardly unreasonable for a player of his caliber. Anthony Rendon signed for $245MM over the same term this offseason. While Rendon has been marginally better than Arenado over the past few seasons, the Rockies’ star is a year younger.

More difficult to navigate are Arenado’s full no-trade clause and post-2021 opt-out clause. Arenado has in the past been vocal about his desire to compete, and Morosi notes he admires the Cardinals’ franchise history and has a strong rapport with Paul Goldschmidt. It thus seems feasible he’d be willing to waive the no-trade clause, particularly if the Rockies pivot to a large-scale rebuild. It should be noted, however, Arenado himself has not addressed the no-trade clause publicly.

The opt-out clause poses a greater challenge. Suitors figure to be understandably reluctant to part with the kind of young talent Colorado would surely require for their franchise player if they fear he’ll depart after 2021. (Of course, if Arenado were to not exercise his opt-out in two years’ time, it’s probably an indicator he couldn’t beat the hefty $164MM he’s currently due from 2022-26 on the open market). Morosi reports that St. Louis could explore attempting to convince Arenado to waive his opt-out clause (particularly by guaranteeing him more money), but there’s hardly any indication he’d be willing to do so.

Arenado will surely remain one of the game’s most notable trade candidates unless a deal ultimately comes to fruition. Whether St. Louis or any other team can overcome the numerous hurdles to a deal is one of the offseason’s most fascinating storylines.

Rockies Have Interest In Jonathan Lucroy

By Mark Polishuk | January 11, 2020 at 11:59pm CDT

The Rockies’ search for catching help could lead them to a familiar face, as Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe writes that “Jonathan Lucroy could return to the Rockies for a second stint.” Lucroy first played for Colorado in 2017, suiting up for 46 games in the purple pinstripes after a deadline trade from the Rangers. The veteran backstop had a big hand in the Rockies’ run to the NL wild card game that season, batting .310/.429/.437 over 175 plate appearances with the club.

Lucroy’s time in Colorado also represents the last consistently good stretch of his career, as he has otherwise struggled badly over the last three seasons. Over 782 PA with the Athletics, Angels, and Cubs in 2018-19, Lucroy has hit only .237/.297/.338 with 12 home runs. Prior to the Rockies trade, Lucroy also batted .242/.297/.338 in his first 306 PA of the 2017 season.

It has been a stark dropoff both offensively and defensively for a player who was arguably the game’s best catcher in his 2012-16 heyday with the Brewers and Rangers. As per Baseball Prospectus, Lucroy’s blocking and framing numbers have been far below average over the last three seasons. On the more intangible front, Lucroy was heavily praised for his game-calling ability and work in managing Oakland’s makeshift pitching staff in 2018, as the A’s overcame a barrage of rotation injuries to win a slot in the AL wild card game.

This type of veteran stability would be a boost to a Rockies’ catching situation that was a big problem area in 2019. Tony Wolters has yet to show anything at the plate (.653 OPS) over 1123 career plate appearances, and Wolters’ framing numbers dropped precipitously from near-elite level in 2018 to below average in 2019. Drew Butera and Elias Diaz has have already been added as veteran backup options, and Lucroy would bring more of a track record than either of that pairing, though he has shown little of his old form in recent years. The pickings are slim on the free agent catching market by this point in the offseason, so Colorado could opt to just add another relatively inexpensive option in Lucroy or perhaps seek out a trade.

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