2021 Amateur Draft Rumors: Pirates, Mayer, Orioles, Mock Drafts
The 2021 amateur draft begins on July 11, and with the later date comes more time for analysis, predictions, smokescreens, rumors, and possible major changes up and down teams’ draft boards. With this in mind, there is naturally quite a bit of uncertainty over which prospects will land with which teams, as a real consensus has yet to develop in almost every single spot in the first round.
Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo, The Athletic’s Keith Law, MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, and ESPN.com’s Kiley McDaniel have all published new mock drafts within the last week, and one constant emerged between the four pundits — the Pirates taking California high school shortstop Marcelo Mayer with the first overall (1-1) pick. It isn’t a sure thing by any means, however, as the Pirates are said to be focused “only on position players at this point,” according to Law, so such candidates as Louisville catcher Henry Davis (Callis cites Davis as Pittsburgh’s apparent “Plan B”) or high school shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Khalil Watson could still be in the mix. Collazo also believes the Pirates are considering Vanderbilt right-hander Jack Leiter.
The Pirates’ $14,394,000 draft bonus pool is the highest of any team, and they plan to maximize value by drafting a player at 1-1 who is thought to be less willing to insist on the full slot price $8,415,300 slot price for the first overall pick. “I think that’s what Pittsburgh’s pick will come down to: taking the one that is clearly cheaper to sign,” McDaniel writes, which certainly isn’t welcome news to Pirates fans long frustrated by the team’s unwillingness to spend.
That being said, many teams have deployed the strategy of spreading around their draft bonus money in the past. The most famous example was the Astros’ pick of Carlos Correa (seen as a slight reach at the time) first overall in 2012, and Houston signed Correa to a below-slot bonus and then using that saved money to sign 41st-overall pick Lance McCullers Jr. to an above-slot deal. It also isn’t like Mayer would be a controversial choice at 1-1, considering that MLB Pipeline ranks him first on their top 250 draft prospects list, and McDaniel’s most recent prospect ranking has Mayer second overall.
While Mayer looks like the favorite at the moment, it is quite possible the perceived price tags could still fluctuate in the next three weeks. For instance, the three pundits all note that the Tigers love Mayer, so he isn’t likely to fall beyond Detroit at the third overall pick if the Pirates and Rangers (who pick second) both pass. As McDaniel observes, this impacts Mayer’s leverage in potential negotiations with the Pirates, since the young shortstop can be reasonably certain of at least landing a bonus in range of the $7,221,200 slot price attached to the third overall pick.
There is no consensus whatsoever in the mock drafts after a hypothetical Pirates/Mayer 1-1 pick, so if Pittsburgh went in another direction, the draft boards would be entirely blown up. To give you an idea of the wide range of scenarios, here is the list of players cited by Callis, Collazo, Law and McDaniel as possibilities for each team drafting in the top eight, along with which pundit selected which prospect for each top-eight team in their mock draft.
- 1. Pirates: Mayer (Callis/Collazo/Law/McDaniel), Henry Davis, Jordan Lawlar, Khalil Watson, Jack Leiter
- 2. Rangers: Leiter (Callis), Lawlar (Collazo/Law), Davis (McDaniel), Kumar Rocker, Mayer, Watson….in a contrast to the other three pundits, Callis writes that Texas has Lawlar and Davis “on the back burner” behind Watson, Mayer, and Leiter. “Watson has real heat at this spot,” Collazo writes.
- 3. Tigers: Mayer, Jackson Jobe (Callis/Collazo), Leiter (Law), Brady House (McDaniel), Lawlar, Watson, possibly Rocker “as a big maybe” in Collazo’s words
- 4. Red Sox: Lawlar (Callis), Davis (Law), Leiter (Collazo/McDaniel)….Collazo doesn’t believe Leiter would fall beyond Boston at fourth overall,
- 5. Orioles: Davis (Callis), Colton Cowser (Law), Watson (Collazo/McDaniel), House, Harry Ford, either of Mayer/Lawler if they happened to fall….Baltimore is widely expected to take a college position player at an under-slot price, as a way of keeping money in reserve to go over-slot on other picks.
- 6. Diamondbacks: Rocker (Callis), Davis (Collazo), Watson (Law), Lawlor (McDaniel), Jobe
- 7. Royals: Watson (Callis), Rocker (Collazo/Law/McDaniel)….this is another minor consensus area, as Law and McDaniel believe that Rocker isn’t likely to fall beyond Kansas City. “The market for Rocker is weirdly specific,” Law writes, citing the Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Nationals, and Mets as perhaps the only true interested parties. Of course, Callis projected the D’Backs to take Rocker at sixth overall, so Arizona could also be a candidate for the Vanderbilt righty.
- 8. Rockies: House (Callis/Collazo/Law), Benny Montgomery (McDaniel), Jobe
All four mock drafts are well worth reading in full, to get a sense of what the 29 teams with first-round picks are generally targeting this year or have historically looked for in past drafts. (The Astros aren’t included, as they lost their first-rounder as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.)
For more on the prospects themselves, you can check out the aforementioned lists from McDaniel and MLB Pipeline, Baseball America’s top 500 list, or some of the individual writeups from the Sports Info Solutions blog on such top college players as Florida outfielder Jud Fabian, Wake Forest right-hander Ryan Cusick, UCLA shortstop Matt McClain, and Mississippi right-hander Gunnar Hoglund.
Twins Claim Beau Burrows From Tigers
The Twins announced Tuesday that they’ve claimed righty Beau Burrows off waivers from the Tigers, who’d previously designated the former first-rounder for assignment. He’ll report to Triple-A St. Paul.
Burrows, 24, was the No. 22 overall pick back in 2015 and long rated as one of the Tigers’ better prospects, but he’s struggled both in the upper minors and in his brief time with the MLB club. In 8 1/3 innings with the Tigers, he’s surrendered eight runs on 10 hits and three walks with six strikeouts. Burrows’ work in Triple-A hasn’t yielded better results, as he’s been tagged for a 5.66 ERA in 82 2/3 frames.
That said, Burrows isn’t terribly far removed from ranking as the game’s No. 77 prospect in the estimation of Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com back in 2018. He’s battled shoulder and biceps injuries over the years and was limited to just 74 innings during his last full season in 2019. But Burrows sat 94.5 mph with his fastball in his brief MLB time this year and was at 93.7 mph last year. His fastball draws average or better reviews in scouting reports, but Burrows has had trouble settling on and consistently executing his mix of secondary pitches. He’s at times used a changeup, curveball, slider and cutter, but none has settled in as a consistently above-average offering to this point.
The Twins have been hit hard by injuries so far in 2021 and had an open spot on the 40-man roster, so there’s little harm in taking what amounts to a free look at a once-promising prospect. Burrows can be optioned for the remainder of the 2021 season and also has one additional minor league option year remaining beyond the current campaign.
Tigers Release Wilson Ramos
TODAY: The Tigers have requested unconditional release waivers on Ramos, the team announced.
TUESDAY: The Tigers have designated catcher Wilson Ramos and righty Beau Burrows for assignment, according to a club announcement. That opens up 40-man roster spots for additions Wily Peralta and Miguel Del Pozo, moves covered in this post.
Ramos, 33, is a 12-year Major League veteran. The Tigers signed him to a one-year, $2MM deal back in January, and Ramos started the majority of the team’s games at catcher until going on the shelf on May 7th with a back injury. Ramos started strong, with six home runs in his first nine games. However, Eric Haase and Jake Rogers have proven themselves capable. The 28-year-old Haase, who was removed from the Tigers’ 40-man roster back in January, has already blasted eight home runs in 100 plate appearances.
Ramos has had a long, successful career, with his finest years coming as a member of the Nationals. He’s generally been regarded as a bat-first catcher, and posted a 105 wRC+ over a career-high 141 games for the 2019 Mets. He’s reached double-digit home runs in nine different seasons and has a pair of All-Star appearances under his belt.
Burrows, 24, was drafted 22nd overall by the Tigers back in 2015 out of high school, two spots ahead of Walker Buehler. Not long after that, Burrows was rated as a 60-grade prospect by Baseball America. Though he wasn’t particularly successful in the high minors, prior to this season BA still gave Burrows a 45 grade, saying, “Without a true out pitch, it’s hard to project Burrows as much more than a low-leverage reliever.” Unfortunately, the most memorable part of Burrows’ lone MLB outing this season was his vomiting on the pitching mound.
AL Injury Notes: Bregman, Ramirez, Duffy, Goodrum
A left quad strain sent Alex Bregman to the 10-day injured list on Thursday, but the Astros star isn’t yet sure exactly when he’ll be back on the field. “Honestly there’s no timetable really….It’s unfortunate,” Bregman told reporters, including Chandler Rome of The Houston Chronicle. “I’m just going to trust the rehab process. I don’t really know. It’s going to be based on how I progress and how I feel. But there’s no real timetable yet.”
There still seems to be some uncertainty about the severity of Bregman’s injury, as he said that he didn’t know if it was a Grade 1 or Grade 2 strain. Manager Dusty Baker has said that Bregman will be out of action “for a while,” which would seem to indicate that the third baseman will miss well beyond the 10-day minimum. On the plus side for Houston, the team has just kept on winning even without Bregman, as the Astros have rolled a six-game win streak to move within a game of the Athletics for the AL West lead.
More on other injury situations from around the American League…
- Jose Ramirez left Friday’s game with a left foot contusion after being hit by a pitch, and he wasn’t in the Indians‘ lineup on Saturday. Speaking to The Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes and other reporters, manager Terry Francona said that Ramirez “was a little more sore, I think, than maybe he anticipated and maybe we did” when he woke up on Saturday morning. “He got hit right on that arch. He’s doing OK. He’s gonna be fine.” The Tribe are 38-30 this season despite an overall lack of offense, but their chances of remaining in contention would take a big hit if their top hitter had to miss any time. Ramirez is having another impressive season, batting .270/.354/.539 with 16 home runs over his first 277 plate appearances.
- Danny Duffy “felt really good” in the aftermath of a 40-pitch bullpen session on Friday, indicating that the Royals southpaw could be nearing a return from the flexor strain that sent him to the injured list back on May 17. As Duffy told Lynn Worthy of The Kansas City Star, the initial tightness he felt in his forearm is now “gone, everything’s gone. It’s one of those things, modern medicine is a miracle. We’ve got the right people who get their hands on us in the training room….On the MRI, they said my ligament is completely intact, so we’re good. I’m not nervous about it at all. I’m ready to go.” No plans have yet been made about any possible rehab assignment, though manager Mike Matheny indicated that Duffy could return sometime during the Royals’ upcoming 10-game road trip from June 22-July 1. Duffy was off to a great start prior to his injury, posting a 1.94 ERA and above-average strikeout (28.2%) and walk (7.1%) rates over 41 2/3 innings.
- The Tigers placed Niko Goodrum on the 10-day injured list yesterday due to a tendon injury in his left finger. Goodrum suffered the injury while diving for a ball on Friday. Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Chris McCosky of The Detroit News) that Goodrum is “seeing some doctors and they are sending films to some hand doctors around the country. But essentially, he’s got an issue with the tip of his left index finger. No surgery is required, but we have to get the swelling out of his entire hand.” Goodrum has played mostly shortstop over the last two seasons but he has been a valuable utility piece for Detroit, playing all over the field during his four seasons with the Tigers. While Goodrum was a Gold Glove finalist at shortstop in 2020, his defensive metrics have been subpar this year, and he has struggled at the plate for the second consecutive year — Goodrum has hit .202/.281/.332 in 398 PA since the start of the 2020 campaign. Willi Castro, Harold Castro, and call-up Isaac Paredes will all see time at shortstop while Goodrum is sidelined, Hinch said.
Quick Hits: Rays, Glasnow, Roe, Tigers, Boyd, Mets/Nats
Rays fans can allow themselves some tempered excitement after the latest check-up on Tyler Glasnow. The lanky flamethrower will be shut down for four weeks before beginning to throw again, but that said, they may have located another source of Glasnow’s discomfort, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The latest diagnosis theorizes that his elbow irritation could at least in part be the result of a bone issue, which Glasnow’s doctors will attempt to treat during this period of rest. Of course, much uncertainty remains for Glasnow, whose injury became a bit of a firestarter for the debate around the use of illegal substances. After his injury, Glasnow was vocal in opposition of MLB’s attempt to curtail the use of illegal substances on the mound by way of an in-season mandate.
Neither Glasnow’s injury nor the “sticky stuff” saga will be resolved in the immediate future, however, so let’s turn instead to the latest news on his Tampa teammate: reliever Chaz Roe has cut his rehab short for the time being. Roe has been out since April with a shoulder strain. The latest issue, however, is not with the shoulder, but rather a case of biceps tendinitis, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links). It will be another 7-10 days until he’s able to resume throwing.
Elsewhere around the game…
- Tigers starter Matthew Boyd has been to see a “number of doctors” about the arm discomfort that landed him on the injured list on June 15th. He won’t pitch again before the All-Star break, but there is no structural damage in the arm, per the Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen (via Twitter). Detroit plans to be cautious with the 30-year-old southpaw, adds Evan Woodbery of the Mlive Media Group (via Twitter). In 13 starts this season, Boyd has a 3.44 ERA/3.75 FIP across 70 2/3 innings. In terms of the positive, his 6.4 percent walk rate is better than his career norm. On the other side, Boyd’s strikeouts are down (18.8 percent strikeout rate). If all goes well, the Tigers hope to have a healthy Boyd back in the rotation for the second half.
- The Mets and Nationals will play a doubleheader today. Both teams will add a 27th man to the roster for the day. In the Nationals’ case, right-hander Ryne Harper has stayed with the team after being optioned to Triple-A yesterday, per the team. He will be available out of the pen for manager Davey Martinez in both games. The Mets, meanwhile, recalled right-hander Yennsy Diaz to be their 27th man, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (via Twitter). There was some indication that Albert Almora Jr. would be activated from the injured list, and that’s still a possibility for game two, Dicomo notes.
AL Injury Notes: Gleyber, Boyd, Turnbull, White
Gleyber Torres made an early exit from tonight’s game due to what the Yankees described as stiffness in his left lower back. The shortstop will receive further examination tomorrow, when the Yankees return to the Bronx to open a three-game series with the Athletics. Torres took an awkward fall while fielding a Bo Bichette grounder in the third inning, and was replaced for a pinch-hitter in the top half of the fourth.
Torres has hit .260/.342/.344 over 244 plate appearances this season, working his way back up to close to league-average production (96 wRC+) after a rough April, and also a week-long absence in May due to a positive COVID-19 test. He also has a +3.7 UZR/150 and -2 Defensive Runs Saved over 505 2/3 innings at shortstop, a significant improvement with the glove after his shortstop defense has been such a point of criticism. If Torres’ back problem is serious enough to merit a visit to the injured list, Tyler Wade or Gio Urshela are the likely choices to step in at shortstop, with DJ LeMahieu or Miguel Andujar capable of stepping in at third base if Urshela changes positions.
More on other injury situations from around the American League…
- Matt Boyd will visit Dr. Neal ElAttrache for an examination of the Tigers southpaw’s ailing left arm, manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Chris McCosky of The Detroit News). More will be known once the exam takes place, though the team is already considering holding Boyd and Spencer Turnbull back until after the All-Star break. “Are we going to push these guys before the All-Star break versus utilizing the time (the four-day break) and targeting them back after the break? That’s the assessment that’s going to be done over the next couple of weeks on how we’re going to ramp these guys back up,” Hinch said. A forearm strain sent Turnbull to the IL on June 5, and while his injury wasn’t though to be overly serious, naturally the Tigers will be cautious with any forearm issue. Boyd — and perhaps Turnbull as well — figure to be trade chips for Detroit at the deadline, so while the team would surely want both hurlers to prove they’re healthy prior to July 30, there is no point in rushing them back and risking further injury.
- After missing a month due to strained left hip flexor, Mariners first baseman Evan White has halted his rehab due to a setback. (Jen Mueller of Root Sports was among those to report the news.) While White could potentially return to Triple-A Tacoma within a week, it represents another delay in his sophomore season. Though White won the Gold Glove for his excellent first base defense in 2020, he has yet to hit at the big league level, with only a .165/.235/.308 slash line in 306 career plate appearances in the majors.
Tigers’ Matt Manning To Make MLB Debut Thursday; Matthew Boyd To IL
The Tigers announced a series of roster moves today, the most exciting of which is the planned MLB debut of acclaimed pitching prospect Matt Manning. Manning, 23, will start Thursday night in Anaheim against the Angels. Additionally, pitchers Matthew Boyd and Alex Lange hit the IL, Wily Peralta and Miguel Del Pozo had their contracts selected, and Jeimer Candelario was reinstated from the IL.
Manning was drafted ninth overall by the Tigers in 2016 out of high school. Prior to the season, Baseball America ranked Manning as the 33rd-best prospect in the game. The COVID-19 pandemic deprived Manning and many others of a minor league season in 2020, and he also dealt with a right forearm strain. Manning made his Triple-A debut on May 4th of this year. He’s scuffled to an 8.07 ERA in seven starts, with more than 27% of his flyballs leaving the yard. Still, Manning’s last outing was solid, and he retains “frontline starter potential” according to Baseball America. He’ll get a tough assignment, going up against Shohei Ohtani.
Boyd, 30, exited Monday’s start due to an arm injury that Tigers manager A.J. Hinch described today as “more toward the elbow.” Through 13 starts, he was experiencing a resurgent season with a 3.44 ERA in 70 2/3 frames. With a strikeout rate of just 18.8%, Boyd is likely still a 4.50 ERA type pitcher whose flyballs happened to stay in the yard over a brief sample. Still, he’s under team control through 2022 as an arbitration eligible player and should be a solid late July trade candidate if the injury turns out to be minor. Boyd joins rotation-mate Spencer Turnbull on the IL.
Lange, a 25-year-old rookie reliever, struggled to the tune of a 7.31 ERA over 18 fairly low-leverage outings before hitting the IL with a shoulder strain. He was rated as a 40-grade prospect by Baseball America prior to the season.
Peralta and Del Pozo will be new additions to the Tigers’ 40-man roster. One such spot was opened with the transferring of Rony Garcia to the 60-day IL. Peralta, 32, joined the Tigers on a minor league deal back in February. He was once a productive member of the Brewers’ rotation, peaking with a 3.53 ERA in 198 2/3 innings back in 2014. He managed to give the Mud Hens six mostly solid but brief outings and is an option to take Boyd’s spot Saturday in Anaheim, Hinch told reporters.
Del Pozo has 13 big league innings to his name. The 28-year-old southpaw inked a minor league deal with the Tigers back in January. He’s been dominant in a dozen Triple-A relief outings, punching out 34.7% of batters faced and walking only 6.1%.
Matthew Boyd Exits Start Due To Triceps Issue
10:50pm: Tigers manager A.J. Hinch tells reporters in his postgame session that Boyd felt something abnormal in his triceps during the third inning (Twitter link via Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic). They’ll know more following an additional wave of tests tomorrow, but Hinch suggested a cautious approach is likely to be taken.
9:25pm: Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd is being evaluated after exiting tonight’s start during the third inning with what the team is terming “left arm discomfort,” per a club announcement. Boyd signaled into the dugout for a trainer to come out after 2 1/3 innings of work against the Royals tonight (video link).
While the hope is that he’ll avoid any notable injury, the departure of such an obvious trade candidate this time of year is plenty notable. Boyd has pitched quite well thus far in 2021, bouncing back from an awful 2020 season to post a 3.44 ERA through his first 70 2/3 innings. His 19.6 percent strikeout rate is his lowest since 2017, but Boyd’s 6.4 percent walk rate is also the second-best mark of his career (narrowly trailing a 6.3 percent mark from 2019).
Boyd, 30, was a popular target on the trade market a couple years back, but the Tigers had more than three years of control over him at that point and opted to hold on with the hope of extracting a better offer at some point down the road. Unfortunately, Boyd took a step back in 2019 and then had the worst year of his career in 2020, so that opportunity has yet to present itself.
At this point, the Tigers control Boyd for just one more year after the current season, making him perhaps one of the likeliest players in all of baseball to be dealt — assuming he’s healthy. He’s earning a reasonable $6.5MM salary in 2021 and has been more effective than ever before against right-handed opponents, in part due to an increase in the use of a changeup that has generally befuddled opposite-handed opponents.
Opposing hitters are batting just .224/.246/.343 in the 69 plate appearances Boyd has finished off with a changeup, and the pitch itself has generated a 29 percent whiff rate, per Statcast. Entering play tonight, Boyd had thrown just two changeups to lefties all season but 244 to right-handers; he threw just 187 changeups in a similar workload last season and only 182 over the course of 32 starts in 2019.
Even if the discomfort proves minor enough that Boyd doesn’t miss an outing, his performance and health from this point forth will obviously be all the more important to monitor for those who closely follow the trade market. There’s still a bit more than six weeks to go until the July 30 deadline, so if Boyd shakes off the current ailment and continues at his previous pace in the weeks leading up to the deadline, this will be a quickly forgotten blip on the radar. If he requires a lengthy absence or sees an immediate dip in his results in the coming weeks, there will be obvious implications for the Tigers that extend well beyond their 2021 win-loss record.
Tigers Select Buck Farmer
The Tigers announced this morning they’ve selected the contract of Buck Farmer. Beau Burrows was optioned to Triple-A Toledo last night to clear active roster space. Jeimer Candelario was placed on the COVID-19 injured list yesterday while he goes through intake protocols after going on bereavement leave. That temporarily opens a 40-man roster spot for Farmer, but Detroit will need to make another 40-man move once Candelario clears the intake process.
Farmer returns to Detroit, where he’s logged big league action in every season since 2014. The right-hander was a durable and generally productive middle reliever from 2018-20, a stretch in which he tossed 158 1/3 innings of 3.92 ERA/4.20 FIP ball. His strikeout, walk and groundball rates were all just worse than league average, but his ability to soak up decent innings out of the bullpen made him a fairly valuable part of the Detroit pitching staff.
The 2021 season began in nightmarish fashion for the 30-year-old, though. In 10 2/3 frames, Farmer coughed up fifteen runs on as many hits, walking nine batters while striking out ten. Between his huge spike in walks and massive drop in grounders, the Tigers felt they could no longer keep him on the active roster. Detroit designated Farmer, who is out of minor league option years, for assignment and passed him through waivers last month. He’s since tossed 11 1/3 relief innings with Toledo, allowing five runs with a 7:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Since Farmer is out of options, the Tigers will need to carry him on the active roster from this point forward or again designate him for assignment.
AL Roster Moves: Rays, Mariners, Tigers
The Rays have officially added Matt Wisler to their active roster, per the team. Wisler was acquired via trade from the Giants yesterday. To make room on the active roster, southpaw Ryan Sherriff was optioned to Triple-A. The Rays continue to adeptly re-work their bullpen, adding Wisler to previous trade acquisitions J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen (though the latter is currently in Triple-A). Wisler presents a unique challenge for Tampa, as he is out of options and, therefore, must stay on the active roster, lest they expose him to waivers. In other AL roster moves…
- The Mariners announced a slew of roster moves ahead of today’s game. Dylan Moore has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list, and Yohan Ramirez has been recalled from Triple-A. On the way out, Dillon Thomas and Donovan Walton were optioned to Triple-A Tacoma. Catcher Jacob Nottingham has also been outrighted to Triple-A.
- Tigers infielder Jeimer Candelario has been reinstated from the bereavement list, per the team. He has been placed on the injured list as he goes through intake protocols. Candelario has been out since June 6th. He has batted .266/.336/.381 in 241 plate appearances this season.