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2017 Opt-Out Clause Update

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The last look we took at the handful of players with opt-out clauses following the 2017 season was more than a month ago, and a few of their situations may have changed since that early July check-in. Here’s an update on this group of potential free agents…

[Related: MLBTR Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition]

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  • Justin Upton, Tigers ($88.5MM from 2018-21): There have been plenty of suggestions that there’s no way Upton will walk away from that contract, but we’re not really sold on that notion. Upton was terrible in his first three months with the Tigers but is hitting .274/.352/.542 (137 wRC+) with 45 homers dating back to July 1, 2016. Over the past calendar year, he’s hitting .281/.366/.571 (148 wRC+) with 40 homers in 631 PAs. He’s been seven to nine runs above average in left field, per UZR and DRS, as well. Upton will play next year at the age of 30 and needs only to feel he can top Hanley Ramirez’s guarantee to opt out. Beyond that, he may simply like the idea of moving to a team that isn’t openly trying to pare back its payroll and retool for the future.
  • Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees ($67MM from 2018-20): Tanaka’s home-run woes are an unequivocally troubling issue, but his numbers since the summer began are encouraging. Since May 26, Tanaka has a 3.99 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 47.6 percent ground-ball rate — good for a 3.12 xFIP and a 3.17 SIERA. The numbers are even better if you look at his past nine starts (3.00 ERA, 65 K, 12 BB, 57 innings). The health concerns are well known. Tanaka had a partial UCL tear in his rookie season but was able to avoid Tommy John, and he’s currently on the DL with what is reportedly some minor shoulder fatigue. The righty has averaged 2.2 HR/9 this year, but he’s also going to be just 29 years old next year. An opt-out looked highly unlikely two months ago but now looks entirely plausible, as long as this latest DL trip proves minor.
  • Welington Castillo, Orioles ($7MM player option): Since last check, Castillo has absolutely raked. He’s batted .308/.345/.500 with four homers and three doubles in his past 84 PAs, and his overall batting line it up to .283/.319/.457 (103 wRC+). Castillo’s framing marks have improved from some of the worst in the league to roughly average (per Baseball Prospectus), and he’s halted an incredible 46 percent of stolen-base attempts against him in 2017. He should be able to top a one-year, $7MM deal with ease this winter.

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  • Greg Holland, Rockies ($15MM player option): Since our last check, Holland has reminded everyone that he is indeed mortal. In his past 11 2/3 frames, he’s coughed up eight runs on a dozen hits and six walks with 14 strikeouts. Six of those runs have come in his past two outings, but as long as that proves to be a blip on the radar, Holland still seems a safe bet to opt out. If he significantly fades in his first year back from Tommy John or lands on the disabled list, though, there’s at least a chance that he takes the option. Assuming he remains healthy, though, Holland will likely look to top Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62MM deal this winter.
  • Johnny Cueto, Giants ($84MM from 2018-21): It’s been almost a month since Cueto last set foot on a Major League mound, as he’s been sidelined with a forearm issue that has significantly clouded his chances of opting out. Reports earlier in the summer suggested that a slow start wasn’t going to deter Cueto from opting out, but a month-long injury scare and an ERA in the upper-4.00s certainly might. Cueto, 32 in February, has a 4.59 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and the second worst ground-ball rate of his career (39.2 percent). FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg him at 4.41 or worse.

Unchanged Since Last Check

  • Matt Wieters, Nationals ($10.5MM player option): Wieters wasn’t hitting in early July, and he’s hitting even less now. His defensive reputation limited him to a two-year, $21MM deal with a player option after year one on the 2016-17 open market, and that was coming off a much better offensive season. Wieters seems extremely likely to take the $10.5MM in 2018.
  • Ian Kennedy, Royals ($49MM from 2018-20): Kennedy’s results have improved slightly since the last opt-out update, but it’s hardly enough to make it likely that he’ll opt out of that significant guarantee. Through 120 innings in 2017, Kennedy has averaged 1.65 HR/9, tying a career-worst mark, while both his strikeout and walk rates have gone the wrong direction. He’s also missed a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury, and he’ll turn 33 this December.
  • Wei-Yin Chen, Marlins ($52MM from 2018-20): No change here. Chen has scarcely been able to pitch in 2017 due to a reported partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament. He’s reportedly still aiming for a late comeback, but that won’t be enough to give him the earning power to top his remaining guarantee.

Olney On Verlander's No-Trade Leverage

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Too often overlooked in the general talk about Justin Verlander’s contract serving as an impediment to a theoretical trade is the amount of leverage that Verlander’s no-trade clause gives him, opines ESPN’s Buster Olney. Verlander currently can’t become a free agent until after his age-36 season, but his recent return to form would give him the ability to hold out for a contract extension in order to green-light a move to another club. (One middle ground, speculatively speaking, could be to push for his $22MM vesting option for the 2020 season to be exercised in advance.) A strong finish could make that all the more true if the Tigers hold him and look to move him this offseason. Verlander’s last seven starts have resulted in a 1.71 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9, though he’s still received some help in terms of BABIP (.229) and strand rate (91 percent) in that time.

Nicholas Castellanos Could Move To Outfield

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  • The Tigers’ Nicholas Castellanos has lined up at third base in 512 of 521 career appearances, but a position change is looming, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com writes. Castellanos approached GM Al Avila and manager Brad Ausmus about moving to the outfield, and he began doing work in right before the Tigers played on Saturday. He’ll see game action there during the season’s final weeks if he shows progress in practice, revealed Ausmus, who added that Castellanos is “gung-ho” about a possible change. With minus-62 defensive runs saved and a minus-42.1 Ultimate Zone Rating in 4,000-plus career innings, the metrics indicate that the 25-year-old Castellanos hasn’t exactly been Nolan Arenado-esque at third base. And shifting him to the outfield, where he played in nine games as a rookie in 2013, would seemingly open up third for prospect Jeimer Candelario. The Tigers acquired Candelario, 23, from the Cubs last month in a trade involving reliever Justin Wilson and catcher Alex Avila. Candelario’s currently at Triple-A, but with Sept. 1 roster expansion on the horizon, he’ll be a factor in Detroit soon.

Ian Kinsler Fails To Clear Revocable Waivers

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TODAY: Kinsler will remain with the Tigers, Heyman tweets, as no trade was worked out with the team that claimed him.

FRIDAY, 5:23pm: The Brewers did not win the claim for Kinsler, Heyman tweets. Milwaukee had reportedly shown interest in the veteran in recent weeks.

4:54pm: It seems unlikely a deal will be worked out, Heyman hints (Twitter links). The (still unknown) claiming team tried and failed to land Kinsler before the non-waiver deadline and hasn’t made headway since winning the claim. There’s “no optimism” of that changing, per the report.

3:20pm: Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler will not make it through revocable waivers, as an as-yet unidentified team has placed a claim on the veteran, per a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). It’s not yet known whether Kinsler will end up in a new uniform, though.

Detroit still remains in control of Kinsler’s fate. It can work out a trade to send him to the claiming team, allow that club to take on his contract without compensation, or choose instead simply to revoke the waiver placement. In the last scenario, Kinsler would remain under control of the Tigers, but in effect he would no longer be able to be traded this year. (Detroit could still put him on waivers again, but this time would not have the option to revoke the placement.)

According to prior reports, Kinsler’s waiver period ended at noon CST yesterday. From that point on, any claiming team would have 48 hours to work out a deal, meaning we’re just past the halfway point in that period. It’s likely, then, that the Tigers are still working with the mystery team to resolve Kinsler’s fate.

The 35-year-old is a steady performer, even if he may not again match last year’s top-quality output. Kinsler has consistently rated as a premium defender at second and has long been an above-average hitter. That he’s now carries a below-average batting line on the year isn’t much of a concern given his track record, evidence of poor fortune in 2017 (.260 BABIP on a career-best 37.1% hard-hit rate), and the high floor that his glove creates.

That profile makes Kinsler’s contract seem like a fairly valuable asset. He’s earning $11MM this year — with something like $3MM left to go — and can be retained via club option for $12MM for 2018. (The $5MM buyout likely won’t come into play.) Plugging in a perennial first-division regular at that kind of rate would hold appeal to quite a few organizations; clearly, at least one has real interest. Whether or not the claiming team has significant enough interest to get the Tigers to bite on a deal, though, remains to be seen.

Tigers Designate Edward Mujica For Assignment

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The Tigers have designated right-hander Edward Mujica for assignment, as per a team announcement.  Righty Jeff Ferrell’s contract has been selected from Triple-A in a corresponding move.

Mujica signed a minor league deal with Detroit last winter and posted some excellent numbers (2.35 ERA, 7.6 K/BB rate, 7.4 K/9) in 46 relief innings for Triple-A Toledo.  This performance earned Mujica a promotion on August 3, though the veteran righty was hit hard for 9.95 ERA over 6 1/3 innings, surrendering at least one run in four of his five outings as a Tiger.

Mujica has now pitched in parts of 11 big league seasons with seven different teams, and his Tigers stint marks his first taste of MLB action since 2015.  Mujica was an All-Star in 2013 after emerging as the Cardinals’ closer and posted solid numbers out of the Red Sox bullpen as recently as 2014, though he took a step back in 2015 and then bounced around three different teams’ minor league affiliates last season.

Ferrell, by coincidence, also last pitched in the majors in 2015, with a nine-game cup of coffee accounting for his entire MLB resume.  The 26-year-old was originally drafted by the Tigers in the 26th round of the 2010 draft, and he has a 4.00 ERA, 2.96 K/BB rate and 7.6 K/9 over 546 1/3 IP in the minors.  Working as a full-time reliever this season, Ferrell has an impressive 2.28 ERA and 9.9 K/9 over 55 1/3 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A, holding right-handed batters to just a .482 OPS.

Justin Verlander Could Add Opt-Out Clause To Contract If Traded

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Thanks to Justin Verlander’s age (34), sizable contract and full no-trade clause, the odds of the Tigers dealing the longtime ace this summer already appear low. Here’s another wrinkle, courtesy of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi: According to the collective bargaining agreement, Verlander will be able to add an opt-out clause to his contract if he agrees to waive his no-trade rights. An opt-out would give Verlander a chance to exit the remaining two years and $56MM on his contract after this season or the $28MM left on his deal at the conclusion of the 2018 campaign.

Teams have already been reluctant to part with premium prospects for Verlander, and the opt-out possibility could make a trade even less likely as a result. On the other hand, it might not be that detrimental, Morosi explains. In order to mitigate the risk of an acquiring team losing Verlander over the winter, the Tigers could agree to pay that club around $10MM per year over each of the next two seasons if he declines his opt-out, a source suggested to Morosi. That would give Verlander a chance to test drive a new team before making an opt-out decision and give that employer “financial protection from injury or underperformance,” Morosi writes.

Morosi specifically focuses on Houston as a possible landing spot for Verlander, though he notes that it’s unknown if the Asros and the Tigers have made progress in talks regarding the right-hander. Both Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jon Heyman of FanRag have reported this week that there’s little to no hope for a Verlander swap between the clubs. Although, the Astros aren’t the only team capable of landing Verlander, who has already cleared revocable waivers. The Tigers are allowed to market him to anyone as a result, but again, there are major roadblocks in the way.

Amid the uncertainty, it’s worth pointing out that the flamethrowing Verlander has recovered from a so-so start to the season with a return to top-of-the-rotation form in recent weeks. Across 40 1/3 second-half innings, Verlander has logged a 2.01 ERA, amassed 44 strikeouts against 12 walks and held opposing hitters to an awful .177/.244/.310 line.

Latest On Justin Verlander

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  • Speaking of the Astros, their talks with the Tigers regarding Justin Verlander are all but dead, per Heyman, which jibes with a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. “It never got close,” a personal familiar with the discussions told Heyman, and that source expects Verlander to still be in a Tigers uniform when the 2018 season begins. Houston was unwilling to deal any of its best prospects for the expensive, aging Verlander (or any of its other deadline targets), but a Tigers official told Heyman, “You’re trading an icon, you’ve got to get something back.” The Astros have been conservative in terms of making acquisitions this summer, surely because a 71-42 team doesn’t need a ton of help, but GM Jeff Luhnow’s lack of bold moves has led to frustration within the organization, writes Heyman. Ace Dallas Keuchel voiced some displeasure immediately after the club’s quiet deadline (only scuffling lefty Francisco Liriano came aboard), and outfielder Josh Reddick followed suit Thursday in an interview with MLB Network Radio (Twitter link). Astros players were “down in the dumps” after the deadline, Reddick revealed.

Tigers Place Ian Kinsler On Revocable Trade Waivers

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Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler is on revocable trade waivers, per MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links). As we’ve emphasized with recent reports of players going on August waivers, the fact that Kinsler is on waivers at all isn’t all that noteworthy. Most players, after all, will be on revocable waivers this month.

What is noteworthy about Rosenthal’s report, though, is that it gives a timetable for when a fairly plausible August trade candidate will either be claimed or pulled back off waivers (thus removing his trade candidacy). In this case, the waiver period is up at noon CST tomorrow. Any team that is awarded the claim would then have another two days to work out a trade; if no deal is made, the Tigers could pull him back or allow him to depart without compensation.

According to Rosenthal, the Brewers still have interest in acquiring Kinsler, though he’d have to approve a trade to Milwaukee — a team that is on his partial no-trade clause. It’s not yet known if Kinsler will even make it to the Brewers on the waiver wire — every American League team and all N.L. clubs with worse records will have higher priority — nor is it known if the Brewers would definitively place a claim. In the event that Milwaukee did successfully claim him, however, the no-trade clause would add another wrinkle to the already-difficult task the two teams would face simply to agree on an exchange. (For what it’s worth, he has indicated a general willingness to accept a deal, though there were prior indications he’d only approve one if an extension could be arranged as part of the swap.)

Kinsler would represent an upgrade for Milwaukee, with Jonathan Villar and Eric Sogard failing to produce with any consistency. But it’s not entirely clear just how much the team would be willing to pay in salary and prospects. Kinsler is earning $11MM this year, around $3MM of which is still due. He’s also controllable via club option for 2018 at a reasonable $12MM. (Note: some sources have the option priced at $10MM, but the majority place it at the slightly higher rate; see, e.g., here.) There’s a hefty $5MM buyout, but that won’t likely come into play. As regards the Brewers, Kinsler’s salary would represent a fairly big chunk of change for an organization that has opened each of the past two seasons with just over $60MM on the books, though Milwaukee has plenty of spending capacity available and would surely like the idea of landing a veteran without a long-term commitment.

Of course, the ability to control a solid veteran player for a solid price on a one-year term will boost Kinsler’s appeal to many other clubs that might consider a claim. Second base hasn’t been an area of much demand, but perhaps there are a few other clubs that could consider pursuing a move. The Angels stand out as a conceivable possibility, as they could use the help at second, are still in contention, and have targeted short-term veterans in recent years as a way to remain competitive while trying not to clog future balance sheets.

Milwaukee and others will surely have their limits in valuing Kinsler. He’s already 35 years old and has managed only a .245/.324/.388 slash on the year, swatting ten home runs after a surprising 2016 campaign in which he launched 28 and carried an atypically robust .196 isolated slugging mark. But he’s easily worth his salary and looks to be an appealing asset for 2018. Despite the currently subpar batting line, Kinsler is avoiding strikeouts as well as ever and is drawing more walks than usual. A boost in his current .259 BABIP would likely bring him back to being at least a league-average hitter — indeed, he has never ended a regular season with a wRC below the league mean. And Kinsler still grades as a premium defender, making him a high-quality regular even if his batting productivity erodes somewhat.

Central Notes: Cubs, Candelario, Gonsalves, Sano

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Have the Cubs emptied their farm in a worrying way? It’s not quite that simple, Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago writes. With a youthful and controllable core of position players, GM Jed Hoyer says, “we’re an incredibly healthy organization from a young-talent standpoint.” While the front office will still need to replenish the ranks in the long run, despite lower draft positions and new limitations on international spending, it does indeed seem reasonable not to focus too much on the fact that the club has lost so much from the top of its system (much of it to graduation, not trade).

  • One player that just moved out of the Chicago system — new Tigers corner infielder Jeimer Candelario — is heading right up to the majors, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes. While GM Al Avila says he hopes Candelario will push for a regular role next year, it seems he won’t shoulder that burden in his first MLB stint with his new club. Indeed, he may just function as a bench piece for the time being, manager Brad Ausmus suggests and Evan Woodberry of MLive.com tweets.
  • The Twins have moved lefty Stephen Gonsalves up to Triple-A, per an announcement from the team’s top affiliate. The 23-year-old southpaw entered the season as a consensus top-100 prospect leaguewide, and has responded by continuing to dominate the opposition at Double-A — as he did in a half-season there last year. Given the pitching struggles at the MLB level in Minnesota, it’s fair to wonder whether Gonsalves could become an option down the stretch, either to boost the staff if the team stays in the Wild Card hunt or merely to give him a look to see if he’s an option for 2018.
  • Meanwhile, the Twins can breathe easy after seeing Miguel Sano worryingly take a pitch off his hand. As Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reported yesterday, the young slugger received a clean bill of health after undergoing an MRI and CT scan. Sano has missed the last three games but will presumably be able to return once the pain and swelling subside.

No Progress In Verlander Talks Between Tigers, Astros

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Aug. 7: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that recent talks between the Astros and Tigers weren’t productive. The Tigers are saying that they expect Verlander to remain with the team into the winter, Nightengale adds.

Aug. 6: The Tigers and Astros were in touch about a potential Justin Verlander trade this month, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets.  It isn’t clear if these talks could be building towards a possible trade of the former Cy Young Award winner, or if the two clubs were just checking back in with each other out of due diligence, since Detroit and Houston also discussed Verlander prior to the trade deadline.  Those talks involved Verlander and Justin Wilson both going to the Astros, though that scenario is no longer in play now that Wilson had been traded to the Cubs.

Verlander has cleared revocable waivers, so the Tigers are free to discuss him in trade talks even now that the July 31 deadline has passed.  Of course, all of the same obstacles that likely prevented a Verlander trade from being consummated are still in place — Verlander’s age (34), large contract (around $63.25MM through the 2019 season), the Tigers’ reported willingness to pay relatively little of that remaining salary, his no-trade clause, and the fact that Verlander has been only a solid pitcher this season rather than the rotation-topping ace he has been in 2016 and past seasons.

It’s worth noting that Verlander has been pitching better as of late, posting a 2.31 ERA over his last six starts (including six shutout innings of the Astros themselves on July 31).  Houston also left the deadline trade market relatively empty-handed, only acquiring Francisco Liriano from the Blue Jays as lefty bullpen relief after missing out on Zach Britton.

The Astros were also linked to several starting pitchers, and they continue to have a need for rotation help now that Lance McCullers is on the 10-day DL with back problems.  Dallas Keuchel and a healthy McCullers sit firmly atop Houston’s rotation, with Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers, Brad Peacock and Charlie Morton all having delivered some good results when given the ball.  Still, Verlander would be a much more proven addition to the Astros’ top three come the postseason, and he could be a difference-maker if he is able to recapture his old form.

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