The Upcoming Shortstop Class Looks Increasingly Bleak
The top free agent storyline of each of the past two offseasons was the respective star-studded shortstop classes. In 2021-22, it was Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Javier Báez. Last winter, Correa was back on the market again, joined by Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.
Next winter’s group was never going to rival that previous collection. The class in general is very light on star position player talent beyond Shohei Ohtani. It’s particularly barren up the middle of the diamond. It’s hard to imagine a more complete 180° turn than how things appear to be trending with the shortstop class, though. Virtually everyone involved is off to a very slow start.
The early-season performances from the impending free agents at the position:
Amed Rosario (28)*
While Rosario is not the superstar some evaluators had anticipated during his time in the Mets’ farm system, he’d been a solid regular for two seasons since landing in Cleveland in the Francisco Lindor blockbuster. Rosario’s solid batting averages helped offset his very low walk tallies. He hit 25+ doubles with double-digit homers in both 2021-22, playing on a near everyday basis. His cumulative .282/.316/.406 batting line was almost exactly league average. Public metrics were mixed on Rosario’s defense but the Guardians have been content to keep him at shortstop despite plenty of upper minors infield talent. Only 27 and without a ton of market competition, he entered the year in position for a strong three or four-year contract.
That could still be the case but Rosario is doing himself no favors with his early performance. He’s sitting on a .217/.262/.300 showing through his first 130 plate appearances. He has just one homer and is striking out at a 29.2% clip that’d easily be the worst full-season mark of his career if it holds. After making contact on 81.3% of his swings last season, he’s putting the bat on the ball only 71.5% of the time this year. He’s also committed six errors in 255 1/3 innings after being charged with just 12 in more than 1200 frames last year. Rosario is still the top impending free agent shortstop by default but he’s struggling in all areas right now.
Javier Báez (31), can opt out of final four years and $98MM on his contract
Báez is hitting .256/.318/.376 through his first 130 plate appearances. That’s an improvement over the lackluster .238/.278/.393 line he managed during his first season in Detroit. His 16.2% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, pushing his overall offense near league average in spite of just three home runs in 32 games. Báez’s 2023 campaign has been fine but hardly overwhelming. It’s nowhere near what it’d take for him to beat the $98MM remaining on his existing contract. He’d need a torrid summer to put himself in position to test free agency.
Enrique Hernández (32)
Hernández has been pushed into primary shortstop duty by the Red Sox’ various injuries. The early reviews from public defensive metrics aren’t favorable, with Statcast putting him at seven outs below average in 199 innings. Hernández is off to an equally slow start at the plate. He’s hitting .236/.295/.362 over 139 plate appearances on the heels of a .222/.291/.338 showing last year. He’s been a valuable super-utility option and everyday center fielder at times in his career, including a 20-homer campaign in 2021. The past year-plus hasn’t been especially impressive, though, and Hernández has yet to demonstrate he’s capable of handling shortstop regularly from a defensive standpoint.
Brandon Crawford (37)
The career-long Giant had a tough April on both sides of the ball. He’s hitting .169/.244/.352 with a personal-high 28.2% strikeout rate in 21 games. His defensive marks through 173 2/3 innings are unanimously below-average. A right calf strain sent him to the injured list last week. Even if Crawford is willing to explore all opportunities next winter after 13 seasons in San Francisco, he’ll need much better production once he returns from the IL to find any interest as a starting shortstop.
Elvis Andrus (35)
Much of what applies to Crawford is also true for Andrus. He’s a 15-year MLB veteran with a couple All-Star appearances to his name but his offense has fallen off in recent seasons. Andrus was a well below-average hitter from 2018-21. He rebounded with a solid .249/.303/.404 showing last season but still didn’t generate much free agent attention. After settling for a $3MM deal with the White Sox, he’s hitting only .208/.291/.264 in 142 plate appearances this year. Andrus hit 17 homers last season but has just one through the first six weeks.
Nick Ahmed (34)
Another glove-first veteran, Ahmed is also off to a rough start at the plate. He carries a .227/.239/.318 line over 67 plate appearances. He’s hit only one home run and walked just once. Ahmed has always been a bottom-of-the-lineup defensive specialist, but his career .235/.289/.380 slash is much more tenable than the production he’s managed thus far in 2023. He lost almost all of last season to shoulder surgery.
Gio Urshela (32)
Urshela is hitting plenty of singles to start his time in Orange County. His .303 batting average is impressive but is paired with just a .325 on-base percentage and .345 slugging mark. He’s walking at a career-low 3.3% clip and has only three extra-base hits (two doubles and a homer) in 123 plate appearances.
More concerning for teams looking to the shortstop market is Urshela’s lack of experience at the position. He’s been a third baseman for the majority of his career. Since landing with the Angels, he’s assumed a multi-positional infield role that has given him eight-plus starts at shortstop and both corner infield spots. Even if he starts hitting for more power, he’s better deployed as a versatile infielder who can moonlight at shortstop than an everyday solution there.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (28)
Kiner-Falefa lost his starting shortstop role with the Yankees towards the end of last season. He’s been kicked into a multi-positional capacity this year and hasn’t logged a single inning at the position in 2023. While Kiner-Falefa presumably could still handle shortstop if asked, he’s contributed nothing offensively in the early going. Through 72 plate appearances, he owns a .191/.225/.206 line.
Adalberto Mondesí (28)
Mondesí is young and has flashed tantalizing tools throughout his major league career. He’s also reached base at a meager .280 clip over 358 MLB games and battled various injuries. An April 2022 ACL tear cut that season short after just 15 games. The Red Sox nevertheless acquired him from the Royals over the offseason, but he’s yet to play a game with Boston. Mondesí opened the season on the 60-day injured list and won’t make his Sox debut until at least the end of this month. There’s a chance for him to play his way into some free agent interest. He’ll need an extended stretch of health and performance.
Players With Club Options
Both Tim Anderson and Paul DeJong can hit free agency if the White Sox and Cardinals decline respective 2024 club options. That seems likely in DeJong’s case but is reflective of the .196/.280/.351 line he managed between 2020-22. If he plays well enough to warrant significant free agent interest — he has been excellent in 11 games this season, to his credit — the Cardinals would exercise their $12.5MM option and keep him off the market anyhow.
The White Sox hold a $14MM option on Anderson’s services. That looks as if it’ll be a no-brainer for Chicago to keep him around (or exercise and make him available in trade). The only way Anderson gets to free agency is if his 2023 season is decimated by injury or an uncharacteristic performance drop-off, in which case he’d be a question mark as well.
Outlook
This was never going to be a great group. It’s comprised largely of glove-first veterans in their mid-30s. Players like Andrus, Ahmed, Crawford and José Iglesias — who’ll also hit free agency and has bounced around on minor league deals thus far in 2023 — don’t tend to be priority targets. That opened the door for the likes of Rosario, Báez and a potentially healthy Mondesí — younger players who have shown some offensive upside — to separate themselves from the pack in a way they wouldn’t have the last couple winters. No one has seized the mantle to this point. While there are still more than four months for someone to emerge, the early returns on the shortstop class aren’t promising.
*age for the 2024 season
Grayson Greiner Announces Retirement
Catcher Grayson Greiner announced his retirement from professional baseball today, posting a message on Twitter. He then extends profound thanks to his family, friends, agents, teammates, coaches, team staff and fans. “While I’ve given almost my entire life to playing this game, I’m extremely excited for the next chapter of my life,” he says. “I’ll miss you, baseball.”
Greiner’s professional career began when he was selected by the Tigers in the third round of the 2014 draft out of the University of South Carolina, getting a signing bonus of $529.4K at that time. Unusually tall for a catcher at 6’6″, he was nonetheless considered a strong defender in his time as a prospect. He was also considered to have decent pop in his bat but wasn’t expected to be an especially strong bat-to-ball hitter or baserunner. Baseball America had him in the 20-25 range in their lists of top Tiger farmhands on three separate occasions, projecting him to be a solid backup catcher unless his bat surpassed expectations.
He was able to reach the big leagues in 2018, the first of five straight seasons where he made an appearance. He never really carved out a regular role, however, with his 58 games and 224 plate appearances in 2019 being career highs. Over those five years, he got a bit under a full season of work, getting into 139 games and taking 485 trips to the plate. He hit nine home runs but struck out in 32.2% of his plate appearances, producing a batting line of .201/.275/.307.
His time as a Tiger went through 2021, but he was outrighted off their roster after that season. He elected free agency and signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks, getting into a couple of games as a COVID substitute but otherwise staying in the minors that year. Returning to free agency in the most recent offseason, he signed a minor league deal with the Twins but didn’t make the club out of camp. He was released and signed another minor league deal, this time with the Rockies. He got into 20 games for the Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes this year but hit just .186/.269/.286 before deciding it was time to hang up his spikes.
Greiner wasn’t a star, though by making it to the majors he realized a dream that many have but few can turn into reality. He got into 139 big league games, collecting 87 hits, nine homers, 42 runs scored and 46 batted in. MLBTR congratulates him on his career and wishes him the best of luck in whatever’s over the horizon.
Tigers Option Spencer Turnbull
The Tigers have optioned right-hander Spencer Turnbull to Triple-A Toledo and recalled right-hander Alex Faedo, per a team announcement. Faedo will start today’s game against the Cardinals.
A second round pick in the 2014 draft, Turnbull made his MLB debut in 2019, struggling to a 6.06 ERA in 16 1/3 innings of work. He would become a regular in the Tigers rotation the following season, however, making thirty starts and posting a roughly league average 4.61 ERA with a solid 3.99 FIP in 148 1/3 innings during the 2019 season. His results continued to improve in 2020, when he posted a 3.97 ERA and 3.49 FIP over 11 starts during the pandemic-shortened campaign.
Turnbull appeared on the verge of a true breakout in 2021, as he had posted a dazzling 2.88 ERA (148 ERA+) in 50 innings across the first nine starts of his season. Unfortunately, Turnbull’s 2021 campaign came to an end prematurely when he underwent Tommy John surgery in July. Turnbull missed the entire 2022 season rehabbing, and returned to the mound as a member of Detroit’s rotation to open the 2023 campaign.
Turnbull has struggled mightily to this point, however, with a 7.26 ERA that leaves him 40% worse than league average by measure of ERA+ and a 5.65 FIP that provides little consolation. Even more worryingly, Turnbull has managed just 31 innings across those starts, pitching into the sixth inning just twice while failing to make it out of the fourth inning three times. Manager AJ Hinch confirmed to reporters, including Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, that Turnbull’s inability to pitch deep into games so far this season was a factor in his demotion. Per Hinch, Turnbull will be tasked with finding the consistency to execute all his pitches during his time in the minors going forward.
Service time might also be some small factor in the Tigers’ decision, as MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery (Twitter links) notes that Detroit might gain an extra year of control over Turnbull if he spends enough time in the minors. Turnbull entered the season with four years and 20 days of service time, and he is currently on track to reach free agency following the 2024 season. Of course, Woodbery observes that the Tigers’ first priority is just getting Turnbull pitching well, since the righty might be a non-tender candidate unless he can turn things around.
Turnbull’s departure creates room on the active roster for Faedo, the club’s first round pick in the 2018 draft. The 27-year-old Faedo made his MLB debut last season, posting a 5.53 ERA with a 4.62 FIP in 53 2/3 innings of work over 12 starts. While Faedo’s results at the big league level last year certainly left something to be desired, there’s some reason for optimism given his excellent results in the minors since his return from Tommy John surgery last year. In 33 2/3 minor league innings since then, Faedo has posted a 2.14 ERA with a 38.2% strikeout rate. Faedo joins Eduardo Rodriguez, Matthew Boyd, Michael Lorenzen, and Joey Wentz in the Tigers’ rotation, though it’s not currently clear if Faedo is simply up for a spot start or will get a longer look as the club’s fifth starter.
Tigers Sign Heath Hembree To Minor League Deal
The Tigers have signed right-hander Heath Hembree to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He elected free agency last week after being outrighted by the Rays. He’s been assigned to the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens.
This is the third relief pitcher the Tigers have added today, as they also signed left-hander Sam Clay to a minor league deal and claimed right-hander Braden Bristo off waivers from the Rays. Those three will give the club some extra depth arms in Toledo to be potentially called upon when needed.
Hembree, 34, was a fixture of the Boston bullpen for many years. From 2016 to 2019, he made at least 38 appearances in every one of those seasons with his ERA finishing between 2.65 and 4.20 in each. He struck out 25.8% of batters faced in that time against an 8.6% walk rate while racking up a couple of saves and 43 holds.
Since then, he’s worn many different jerseys as he’s become a well-traveled journeyman. From 2020 to 2022, he went from the Sox to the Phillies, Mets, Reds, Pirates and Dodgers. This winter, he signed a minor league deal with the Rays and got selected to the big league club last week but was designated for assignment the very next day. He managed to make one scoreless appearances of an inning and a third during his brief stay on the roster.
Hembree cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A but rejected that in favor of a return to the open market. Any player with a previous career outright or more than three years of service time has that right, both of which apply to Hembree. He’ll now head to Toledo and try to earn his way back to the big leagues and add yet another new jersey to his collection.
Tigers Claim Braden Bristo, Transfer Austin Meadows To 60-Day IL
5:05pm: The Tigers have announced the claim of Bristo, who has been optioned to Triple-A Toledo. The corresponding move is transferring outfielder Austin Meadows to the 60-day injured list. Meadows was placed on the 10-day IL due to anxiety on April 7 and will now be ineligible to return until 60 days from that point, which would be early June.
1:35pm: The Tigers have claimed right-hander Braden Bristo off waivers from the Rays, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Bristo was designated for assignment on the weekend when the Rays acquired right-hander Javy Guerra from the Brewers. The Tigers have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move in order to open a spot for Bristo.
Bristo, 28, was drafted by the Yankees in 2016 and was on their farm through the end of 2022, working exclusively in relief apart from a couple of two-inning starts as an opener. He made it all the way up to Triple-A, posting big strikeout totals but also dealing out more than his fair share of walks. He tossed 103 1/3 Triple-A innings between 2021 and 2022, posting a 4.70 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout rate but also a 13.2% walk rate.
He reached free agency in the winter and signed a minor league deal with the Rays, who selected his contract just over two weeks ago. He made one appearance against the Red Sox, tossing three innings without allowing a run, but was optioned back to Triple-A Durham the next day. He has an ERA of 10.00 in a small sample of six appearances for the Bulls this year.
Bristo will now head over to the Tigers, who will see if they can help him better harness his strikeout stuff so that he limits the free passes. The righty still has a full slate of options and essentially no service time, meaning he can be a depth option for the foreseeable future as long as he continues to hang onto his spot on the 40-man.
Tigers Sign Sam Clay To Minor League Deal
The Tigers have signed left-hander Sam Clay to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He had signed a minors deal with the Diamondbacks in the offseason but was released, per the tracker.
Clay, 30 in June, has a bit of major league experience on his ledger to this point in his career. A Twins draftee, he never got the call to the big leagues with them, reaching free agency after 2020. The Nationals then signed him to a major league deal and put him into 58 games in 2021. He didn’t rack up a ton of strikeouts, just 15.9% of batters faced, but he got ground balls at an excellent 60.1% rate. The lefty posted a 5.60 ERA that year but might have deserved better, given his .342 batting average on balls in play and 65.4% strand rate, which were both on the unfortunate side of average. His 4.61 FIP and 4.42 SIERA were each about a full run better than his ERA.
Clay spent most of 2022 in the minors and eventually went to the Phillies and Mets in July with a couple of waiver claims in a span of a week. The Mets would later outright him off the roster in August. Amid all of that bouncing around, he tossed just 5 1/3 innings in the majors with a 8.44 ERA. But in 43 Triple-A innings, he had a much more palatable 3.56 ERA, getting grounders on almost two thirds of balls in play and striking out 24.1% of opponents.
Clay returned to the open market this winter and signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks. He wasn’t terribly effective in four spring outings and was released but will now join the Tigers. Per the transactions tracker, he’s been assigned to the FCL Tigers and will presumably get back into game shape after a layoff of about a month, at which point he’ll likely head to Triple-A Toledo. The Tigers have three lefties in the big league bullpen in Tyler Holton, Tyler Alexander and Chasen Shreve but Alexander currently has a 5.28 ERA on the year and Shreve a 7.84. Clay will give them a non-roster option to potentially turn to in the not-too-distant future.
AL Central Notes: White Sox, Mahle, Skubal
The White Sox are set to get some much needed reinforcements early this week, as manager Pedro Grifol tells reporters (including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin) that both shortstop Tim Anderson and infielder Hanser Alberto are expected to return from the injured list on Tuesday.
That’s great news for the club, as the White Sox have begun their 2023 campaign with a worrisome 7-21 record that places them tied for last in the AL Central, nine games back of the division-leading Twins. A two time All Star who won the batting title in 2019, Anderson is one of the club’s marquee players. From 2019 to 2021 Anderson posted 11.6 fWAR in 295 games, a pace of nearly 6.4 fWAR per 162 games, thanks to solid defense at shortstop paired with a .322/.349/.495 slash line that was good for a 126 wRC+. That being said, Anderson missed three months of action in 2022 due to multiple injuries and didn’t reach those same standards when on the field, posting just a 110 wRC+ in 79 games along with a .093 ISO that was far below the .173 he managed during his peak years.
Even after a relative down season last year, however, Anderson figures to be one of the club’s best players this season, and any hope of a turnaround for the White Sox after this brutal start to the 2023 campaign likely rests in large part on his shoulders. In coming off the IL, he’ll be joined by Alberto, who figures to join Chicago’s bench mix alongside Romy Gonzalez, Lenyn Sosa, Gavin Sheets, and Adam Haseley. Despite a career wRC+ of just 77, Alberto is in his eighth year in the majors thanks to his versatility, which has allowed him to play all over the diamond except for behind the plate and in center field, and his penchant for avoiding strikeouts, as the 30-year-old veteran has punched out in just 12.2% of his 1,406 plate appearances in his career to this point.
More from around the AL Central…
- Twins right-hander Tyler Mahle underwent an MRI on his arm after he was diagnosed with an elbow impingement earlier this week. Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters, including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park, that the team will have more details soon but that Mahle is expected to miss his next start at the very least. It’s not currently known if an injured list stint will be necessary for Mahle, who has a 3.16 ERA in five starts so far in 2023. The Twins have a variety of options for a spot start on the 40-man roster if necessary, including Simeon Woods-Richardson, Cole Sands, Louie Varland and Brent Headrick.
- Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal, who underwent flexor surgery last August, threw off a mound for the first time since his surgery yesterday, as noted by MLive’s Evan Woodberry. Everything went well during the bullpen, during which Skubal threw 15 fastballs. Skubal doesn’t figure to return from injury any time soon, but the positive update is nonetheless great news for the Tigers, who also lost fellow youngsters Casey Mize and Matt Manning before the season began. 2022 was something of a breakout season for Skubal, as the young lefty posted a 3.52 ERA and 2.96 FIP in 117 2/3 innings of work.
Tigers Select Andy Ibanez, Place Kerry Carpenter On IL
The Tigers have made a series of roster moves this morning, placing outfielder Kerry Carpenter on the 10-day injured list with a right shoulder strain and selecting the contract of infielder Andy Ibanez. To make room on the 40-man roster for Ibanez, right hander Matt Manning was transferred to the 60-day IL.
Ibanez was outrighted off the Tigers’ roster in January, but returns after hitting .297/.418/.609 with five home runs this year at Triple-A. The 30-year-old made his big league debut for the Rangers two years ago and has slashed a combined .258/.306/.384 with eight home runs across 400 plate appearances. The Tigers claimed him off waivers at the end of last season. The majority of his playing time has been spent at second and third, but he has filled in in the outfield as well as at first.
Carpenter’s hitting .217/.280/.464 with four home runs to begin the season, his second big league campaign. The 19th round pick from 2019 showed a bit more promise last year, but has struggled to start 2023. The 25-year-old broke out in Triple-A last year, slashing .331/.420/.644 with eight home runs in 138 plate appearances, and so while he’s yet to hit a great deal at the big leagues there is a bit of promise there.
14 Veterans With Upcoming Opportunity To Opt Out Of Minor League Deals
As part of last year’s collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the Players Association agreed to a few automatic opt-out dates for some veteran players on minor league contracts. Article XX(B) free agents — players with over six years of MLB service who finished the preceding season on a big league roster — who sign minor league contracts more than ten days before Opening Day now receive three uniform chances to retest free agency if they’re not added to the majors.
The first comes five days before the start of the season. For players who pass on that initial opt-out, they have additional windows to explore the open market on both May 1 and June 1 if they’ve yet to secure a spot on the 40-man roster. As that second opt-out date nears, it’s worth checking in on a few players with opt-outs under the CBA. We’ll also look at a few players who don’t meet those criteria but reportedly negotiated forthcoming opt-out dates into their own non-roster deals.
- Reds RHP Chase Anderson
Anderson was an Article XX(B) player who passed on his first opt-out chance. The 35-year-old finished last season with nine outings (seven starts) for the Reds, allowing a 6.38 ERA in 24 innings. He returned to the organization and has started five games for their top affiliate in Louisville. He carries a 4.30 ERA over 23 frames with a modest 19% strikeout rate while walking 13% of opposing hitters. It’s not a great first few weeks but the Reds don’t have much certainty behind their top three starters. Connor Overton is on the injured list, while Luis Cessa has been rocked for 20 runs in 16 2/3 innings.
- Angels RHP Chris Devenski
Devenski also forewent his Spring Training opt-out. The 32-year-old accepted a season-opening assignment to Triple-A Salt Lake, where he’s made seven relief outings. In nine innings, he’s allowed four runs with nine strikeouts and three walks. It’s a decent if not overwhelming performance. Devenski was an elite multi-inning relief option for the Astros between 2016-17 but he’s battled injuries and performance fluctuations since then. He threw 14 2/3 MLB innings between the Diamondbacks and Phillies last year, allowing an 8.59 ERA with a modest 17.5% strikeout rate but only walking one of the 67 hitters he faced. The Angels have a number of relievers who can’t be optioned to the minor leagues, perhaps reducing their flexibility to add another player of that ilk in Devenski.
- Nationals LHP Sean Doolittle
Doolittle bypassed an opt-out chance in Spring Training after returning to Washington over the winter. He’s spent the year on the injured list as he continues to work back from last summer’s internal brace UCL surgery. The veteran threw a live batting practice session this week and could see game action in the not too distant future (via MLB.com injury tracker). It stands to reason he’ll stick with the Nats.
- Rangers LHP Danny Duffy, OF Rafael Ortega
Duffy has spent the season on the injured list. He’s working back from forearm issues that have prevented him from throwing a major league pitch since July 2021. He already passed on a Spring Training opt-out and seems likely to do so again.
Ortega built an April 29 opt-out date into the minor league deal he signed with the Rangers earlier this month. He’d spent the spring in camp with the Yankees but didn’t crack New York’s roster and retested the market. Since signing with Texas, he’s played 17 games for Triple-A Round Rock. He carries a middling .219/.324/.313 line with one homer through 74 plate appearances. He’s drawing plenty of walks but not hitting for power and striking out a little more often than he has in recent seasons.
The lefty-hitting outfielder is coming off a reasonable .241/.331/.358 showing for the Cubs in 2022. He’s capable of playing all three outfield spots but is probably best suited for a corner. Texas has gotten strong early-season work from minor league signee Travis Jankowski and has Adolis García and Leody Taveras penciled into starting roles. The Rangers haven’t gotten much production from any of their left field options aside from Jankowski, though, and it’s questionable how long the journeyman can keep up anything approaching his current .340/.415/.447 pace.
- Rays OF Ben Gamel
Gamel, 31 next month, has been a decent left-handed platoon outfielder in recent seasons. He typically hits around a league average level, including a .232/.324/.369 line over 115 games with the Pirates last year. After signing with the Rays, he’s off to a .217/.316/.406 start in 79 plate appearances at Triple-A Durham. He’s walking at a customarily strong 12.7% clip but has gone down on strikes in more than 30% of his trips. Left-handed hitting outfielders Josh Lowe and Luke Raley have had excellent starts for Tampa Bay, which could make it hard for Gamel to play his way into the MLB mix anytime soon.
- White Sox OF Billy Hamilton
Hamilton, 32, returned for a second stint with the White Sox over the winter. He’s appeared in 14 games with Triple-A Charlotte but hasn’t produced, stumbling to a .150/.292/.175 batting line. The speedster has been successful on all three of his stolen base attempts but likely needs to show a little more at the plate to earn the pinch-running/defensive specialist role he’s played for a number of teams over the past four-plus seasons. The White Sox recently selected Adam Haseley onto the MLB roster to serve as a glove-first fourth outfielder.
- Phillies RHP Jeff Hoffman
Hoffman didn’t sign early enough to receive the automatic opt-out for Article XX(B) free agents. He negotiated opt-out chances on both May 1 and July 1 into his April deal with the Phils. The righty has pitched seven times for their top affiliate in Lehigh Valley, allowing eight runs across 7 2/3 innings. He’s punched out 13 hitters but handed out five free passes. Hoffman had a reasonable 3.83 ERA through 44 2/3 frames for the Reds last season, missing bats at a league average rate but walking nearly 12% of his opponents. The Phils only have three out of eight relievers who can’t be optioned to the minors, giving them some room to add the veteran if they’re intrigued by Hoffman’s swing-and-miss capabilities.
- Brewers OF Tyler Naquin
Naquin was an Article XX(B) free agent who didn’t break camp with the big league club. He split the 2022 campaign between the Reds and Mets, combining to hit .229/.282/.423 over 334 trips to the plate. The left-handed hitting outfielder has played in 12 games for Triple-A Nashville, hitting .273/.319/.409. He’s not hitting for much power in the early going and has never been one to take too many walks. Naquin spent a bit of time on the injured list this month but was reinstated earlier in the week.
Milwaukee lost center fielder Garrett Mitchell to a season-threatening shoulder procedure and has gotten middling offensive production from rookie outfielder Joey Wiemer. They’re soon to welcome Tyrone Taylor back from the injured list, though, and Naquin’s serviceable but unexceptional Triple-A production may not force the front office’s hand.
- Tigers RHP Trevor Rosenthal
Rosenthal has had his last couple seasons washed away by injury. He lost 2021 to thoracic outlet syndrome and hip surgery, while his ’22 campaign was wiped out by hamstring and lat strains. The Tigers took a look at the one-time star closer in Spring Training and kept him in the organization with their highest affiliate in Toledo. Rosenthal pitched twice in the season’s first week before being placed on the minor league IL with a sprained throwing elbow. Jason Beck of MLB.com tweeted yesterday that Rosenthal is headed for physical therapy, suggesting he won’t be ready for game action in the near future.
- Giants RHP Joe Ross, C Gary Sánchez
Ross is recovering from last June’s Tommy John surgery and will spend most of the year on the injured list. He bypassed his first opt-out chance in March and seems likely to do the same next week.
Sánchez’s May 1 opt-out was built into his contract, as he didn’t sign early enough to receive the automatic opt-out under the CBA. The general expectation was that the veteran backstop would play his way onto the big league roster. That was particularly true once San Francisco lost Roberto Pérez to a season-ending shoulder injury. Sánchez hasn’t done anything to force the issue with Triple-A Sacramento, though.
He’s hitting a woeful .191/.350/.213 without a home run and a 25% strikeout rate over 13 games. Sánchez connected on 16 longballs in the majors for the Twins last year but only reached base at a .282 clip. There’s a path to playing time behind the dish at Oracle Park. Still, Sánchez’s early performance hasn’t been what the organization envisioned. Promoting him would lock in the prorated portion of a $4MM salary for this season, which could prove a disincentive for the club.
- Twins RHP Aaron Sanchez
Sanchez served a depth role for Minnesota last season, logging 60 innings over 15 outings (ten starts). He was tagged for a 6.60 ERA at the MLB level but performed well enough in Triple-A the organization brought him back. He’s started five games with St. Paul this season, logging 22 1/3 innings. While his 2.42 ERA is excellent, it belies a middling 19.2% strikeout percentage and a huge 17.2% walk rate. Minnesota has quite a bit more rotation depth than they did last summer and would probably look to players already on the 40-man roster (i.e. Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland) before tabbing Sanchez if injuries necessitate.
- Padres RHP Craig Stammen
Stammen suffered a capsule tear in his shoulder in Spring Training. The 39-year-old has spent the year on the injured list and has admitted the injury might unfortunately end his career.
The Tigers’ Last Chance To Get Something From The Justin Verlander Trade
There once was a time when Justin Verlander had only played for the Tigers. He was drafted by them with the second overall pick in 2004 and then cemented himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball in the years that followed. He twice signed contracts that extended the club’s control over his services, once in 2010 and another in 2013. That latter contract ran through his age-36 season and was signed while the club was one of the best in the league. They were fresh off a World Series appearance in 2012 and would eventually get to a four-year streak of winning the AL Central in 2014. It wouldn’t have been outlandish to expect him to be a Tiger for life.
However, the fortunes of the franchise changed in the years after that, as they slipped into the basement of the division in 2015. They bounced back with an 86-win showing in 2016 but still missed the playoffs, then were not doing so great again in 2017. It was decided that it was time to turn things over, with the Tigers making two huge deals at the waiver deadline that year. They first traded Justin Upton to the Angels and then Verlander to the Astros. The latter deal was Verlander, a player to be named later and cash for prospects Franklin Pérez, Daz Cameron and Jake Rogers. The PTBNL was later reported as outfielder Juan Ramirez.
It’s now been over five years since that franchise-altering pivot. The Astros went on to win their first World Series a few months after acquiring Verlander, though that title is now forever asterisked in the minds of many baseball fans due to the trashcan-banging scandal. But subsequent contracts kept Verlander in Houston through 2022 as the club continued to be among the best in the league. They made the ALCS in each of those seasons, making it to the World Series again in 2019 and 2021 before winning their second title last year.
As for the Tigers, they have been on the opposite end of the spectrum, continually rebuilding during that entire stretch. That 86-win showing in 2016 is still their last winning season. They’ve also reaped little from those future-focused moves back in 2017. Right-hander Grayson Long, who came over in the Upton deal, topped out at Double-A and retired in 2019. The PTBNL in the deal was later reported as Elvin Rodríguez, who made seven appearances with the Tigers last year but was outrighted at season’s end and is now with the Rays on a minor league deal.
As for the Verlander deal, Pérez was generally considered the headliner at the time as he was a highly-touted prospect then. Baseball America had him in the #54 slot of their top 100 at the start of 2017 and bumped him to #35 going into 2018. Unfortunately, the injury bug bit him badly, mostly in the shoulder. He was only able to throw 19 1/3 innings in the minors in 2018 and 7 2/3 in 2019. The minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic in 2020 and then shoulder surgery wiped out 2021 for Pérez. He was released by the Tigers and re-signed, eventually tossing 25 1/3 innings in the Complex League last year but with a 9.59 ERA. He appears to still be in the organization but it’s hard to count on him for anything now after so much missed development time. He’s 25 years old and has yet to crack Double-A, outside of a brief stint at that level prior to the trade.
Cameron was also a highly-touted young outfielder, having cracked BA’s top 100 list in 2016. Though he had slipped off by the time of the trade, he was still an exciting young player. He made his way to the big leagues but couldn’t do much with the opportunity. He got into 73 major league games over the past three years but hit just .201/.266/.330 and struck out in 31.6% of his plate appearances. He was put on waivers in November, getting claimed by the Orioles and subsequently outrighted.
That leaves Rogers as the last hope for the Tigers to salvage the deal in some way. Arguably seen as the least significant piece of the deal at the time, Rogers was Houston’s #20 prospect at Baseball America coming into 2017. The catcher hasn’t been able to provide much value to the Tigers so far, but that’s not really his fault. He required Tommy John surgery in September of 2021, which wiped out his entire 2022 season. Prior to that, he was showing some positive signs in a small sample. He got into 38 games in 2021 and hit six home runs. Despite striking out in 36.2% of his plate appearances, his .239/.306/.496 was above average, resulting in a 116 wRC+.
He’s now back from that long layoff and showing encouraging signs in a small sample again. His 28.3% strikeout rate this year is still high but it’s an improvement from his previous work. He’s also nearly doubled his walked rate from 8.7% in 2021 to 15.2% this year. His .237/.370/.447 batting line on the season amounts to a 135 wRC+.
This is a tiny sample of 46 plate appearances in 15 games and will surely change. However, Rogers doesn’t need to hit like a superstar to be valuable since he’s considered a strong defensive backstop. In his limited time in the big leagues, he has four Defensive Runs Saved. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus gave him negative grades for his framing prior to the Tommy John but he’s in the positive range so far this year. He’s thrown out 16 of 39 attempted base stealers in his career, a 41% rate that’s well above average, though he’s nabbed just one of six this year.
Rogers’ career thus far is so limited that it’s hard to draw any meaningful conclusions. Thanks to the lost season, he has just 88 major league games under his belt despite now being 28 years old. But given his reputation as a strong defensive catcher, even something near league average offense would make him a useful contributor. He’s shown the potential to be more than that, hitting 12 home runs already in barely half a season of cumulative work. He’s yet to reach arbitration but is slated to get there this winter and is on pace to reach free agency after 2026.
It’s highly likely that the Verlander trade will eventually be seen as a big miss for the Tigers overall. Fans had to watch an iconic player win two rings elsewhere while the highly-touted young players they got in return couldn’t meet expectations and the team posted miserable results overall. But if Rogers can keep serving as a solid defender behind the plate who launches a ball over the wall every once in a while, he can keep it from going down as an utter disaster.