Front Office Originals News & Rumors

Steve Adams

• Good afternoon! I'll get going at 2pm CT, but as always, feel free to submit questions ahead of time. Looking forward to it!
• Let's begin!

Dave

• Instead of signing K Tucker to $450 million and 10 years should the Dodgers reunite with Cody Bellinger for $150 million and 5 years?   Thanks

Steve Adams

• I think that's a bit heavier than what both would get. I don't really expect the Dodgers to be prime players for Tucker, as I've said. Obviously they can afford to, but they've really only gone to the absolute top of the market/long-term for Yamamoto (25 years old), Ohtani (unicorn for obvious reasons) and, to a lesser extent, Betts (who was a year younger than Tucker and was an extension at a price that didn't break the bank as some might've expected).Adding Tucker (or Bellinger, for that matter) when they already have Pages and Teoscar (through 2027) just seems to further take potential ABs away from Dalton Rushing and prospects like Josue De Paula and Zyhir Hope.

  Maybe they just love Tucker and don't care about blocking all those guys -- they could all be traded, I suppose -- but I'm just not big on the idea of the Dodgers shelling out nine figures for any outfielder this winter. (Others on the MLBTR staff are more open to the idea than I am, for what it's worth)

ArchTiger

• Can a HR-driven team win in the playoffs?

Steve Adams

• You'd have to go back to the 2019 Nationals to find the most recent time a team outside the top four in terms of home run output won the World Series. I assume you're talking more about teams that are dependent solely on home runs to score, but even that's a little different in the playoffs versus the postseason. You're just not going to face a team's fifth starter or sixth-best reliever in the playoffs unless the game's already out of hand. Every club is a little more homer-dependent in the postseason, because they're facing better pitchers who make fewer mistakes, so the difference will often come down to who can capitalize most often on the relatively fewer number of mistake pitches they see.

Ned Colletti’s Toupee

• Does Munetaka Murakami’s value take a hit because he’s limited to a corner outfield or first base?  I know he will get paid but I don’t see him getting Yamamoto money.

Steve Adams

• Murakami's value takes a hit because he strikes out too much in Japan, even against lesser pitching, has struggled in the past against above-average velocity (I don't have his '25 numbers against MLB-caliber fastballs handy, but the average NPB heater is like 91-92 mph), and yes, because he's a poor defender who's best suited at 1B in all likelihood.
• I imagine there might be clubs willing to play him at 3B briefly early in his MLB run.
• He's probably a 1B long term, but I don't think 325MM like Yamamoto has ever been plausible since his numbers dipped a bit after the back-to-back MVP wins in 2021-22. He's still going to cash in on something worth more than $100MM in all likelihood, but to your point, I wouldn't be surprised if he signed for less than half of what Yamamoto got

Steve from the Cleve

• Cleveland needs an OF bat that can hit LHP. Robert Jr can't be had since he's on the White Sox and expensive. Tyrone Taylor was Tim Dierkes suggestion, but you might as well play Petey Halpin instead since he's a great fielder, runner and had a .734 OPS in AAA. Seems like there aren't any good options who are younger than 33

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Anthony Franco

• Good afternoon everyone, hope you're doing well!
• Going to stay around an hour on this one to buy some time for free agent/outlook work. Let's get rolling

Lance

• Do you expect the Padres to be super active for any big moves?

Anthony Franco

• They should be in on the top rotation trade candidates (Gore, Ryan, etc.). Not as easy to do now that they've traded De Vries but they've consistently found a way to make those kinds of trades work
• Guessing the free agent approach will be more of what we've seen the last two years. Quiet early in the offseason and try to find ways to creatively structure deals for guys who fall through. Rotation is the priority -- though I could see there being enough uncertainty on King that he kind of falls back into their laps on some sort of opt-out deal -- but they could also be in for another bat
• If it's February and Alonso still hasn't signed, could they jump in?

Drake

• If Roki Sasaki continues to look as good as he does out of the pen do the Dodgers consider making the move permanent?

Anthony Franco

• Nah. Maybe he struggles again as a starter next year and they think about it, but they need to give him another chance to start going into '26

David

• Now that the Mets have moved on from most of their coaches, do you have thoughts in targets for pitching and hit?  Hefner was well regarded but my word, so many walks and full counts!  Thank you!

Anthony Franco

• Feels to me like Hefner fell on the sword for the front office getting too cute with the pitching moves over the offseason, but that's life as a coach. The upcoming rotation class isn't great but I have to imagine they'll be more engaged at the top than they were last winter after things fell apart the way they did
• You can put Tatsuya Imai with every big-market team but he's a potential mid-rotation guy who's uncommonly young for a free agent starter. Shane Bieber's only 30, rock solid, and at least won't come with draft compensation

607179

• Have you any sense of why Oneil Cruz had the year he had? Is he fixable?

Anthony Franco

• Some of it is batted ball stuff that'll normalize. He hits the ball so hard that I can't see him having a .262 average on balls in play again
• Always going to be a ton of strikeouts but I still feel alright about him as an above-average hitter moving forward. Don't think he's long for center field, though, and the whole package adds up to a pretty good player who's super frustrating because you feel he should be more given how freakishly talented he is

ml25ad

• Lots of different directions that the Cards can go in the offseason.  But if they do look to balance out their position player side of bats with so many LH's, what kind of return do you think each of Donovan, Burleson, Nootbaar, and Gorman could net?

Anthony Franco

• They'd all have value, probably in the order you mentioned them. Donovan would bring back a lot, probably a little better than the return Miami got from the Yankees for Jazz
• That was a weird one because Agustin Ramirez was a Top 100 caliber prospect for teams that thought he could catch and not especially valuable for those that didn't. But we can assume Miami was in the former camp (doesn't look promising), and the Cardinals should be able to get someone they value as a top 50-75 overall prospect for two years of Donovan as well

Hopeless Reds Fan

• Am I wrong to think that this would be a perfect offseason for the Reds to trade Hunter Greene for a haul that could bring them back a mlb bat and a couple of really nice prospects?  With Abbott, Lodolo, Singer, Burns, Lowder, Williamson, Petty, etc... this may be the time?
• 

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Steve Adams

• The offseason and postseason are here! Well, kind of. Not really. No playoff games until tomorrow and no formal offseason transactions until after the postseason, but you get the point. Let's talk offseason, playoffs, weird collapses and whatever else is on your mind! I'll get rolling at 3pm or so, but as always, feel free to submit questions ahead of time.
• Good afternoon!
• Let's get underway

Lefty

• Eldridge and Schmitt from SF to MIA for X.Edwards. Who says no?

Steve Adams

• Highly doubt the Giants would give up Eldridge alone for Edwards

Trout Phishin'

• What does the contract look like for Kyle Schwarber to stay in Philadelphia?

Steve Adams

• To me, looks like $120MM+ wherever he goes

Dan S.

• What's more likely for Dylan Cease, 2/70 with an opt-out or 6/180?

Steve Adams

• The AAV on that two-year deal is too steep, but in general, two years and an opt-out feels more likely to me than him just getting $30MM per year over six seasons.
• Something like 2/50 with an out feels more feasible than 2/70

Guarded Indian

• I know there will be several Alonso questions today, but I'll throw mine in.  I just don't see a huge market for the guy and think he should opt in.  I think is best option besides the Mets is the Nationals as far as a position fit, possibly Texas.  Most teams do not need a 1B or a DH and those that do likely can't afford him, especially when there is a much more affordable option available in a very good Josh Naylor.  Am I wrong and where else could he possibly fit?

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• Good afternoon everyone, hope you're doing well!
• It's been a couple weeks. Glad to be back

Unclemike1526

• What is the total number of players for a Playoff rosters? Does it revert back to 26 or does it stay at 27? If so does Ballesteros even make the team if Tucker is back? Does it have to be 13-13? Thanks

Anthony Franco

• It reverts to 26 with a 13-pitcher maximum. Doesn't necessity need to be 13-13 and maybe for the Wild Card round you'll see a team go with 12 pitchers because it's a short series, but most teams will want as many pitchers as they can carry as it goes along
• Either way, they need to find room for Ballesteros. I'd probably drop Turner (and Santana, who's already out) but any of Turner, Castro or Alcantara seems plausible to me
• Willi hasn't hit at all. Alcantara's only really on hand in case PCA gets hurt and they need someone to step into CF. Turner's been a little better lately and provides a right-handed bat off the bench but they don't have that many LHH for whom they'd pinch hit anyway (it's basically just Busch) so I don't know that they really need one

this little piggyback cried oui oui all the way

• Most of the playoff contenders haven't even named their starters for Saturday and Sunday. Is this a new trend?

Anthony Franco

• Probably? The borderline playoff teams don't know yet if Sunday will be a must-win and they'll need to bring their best pitchers back on short rest
• Tigers would love to clinch by Saturday and have Skubal for Game 1 but they may not have that luxury. Astros are almost certainly going to need to bring Brown back on short rest as well

World Series Victor

• Is anyone going to topple Seattle? Or will we finally get to hoist the trophy?

Anthony Franco

• Obviously the odds are stacked heavily in favor of the field over any individual team but Seattle feels like the most complete team in the American League, at least. Tougher call when you pit them against Milwaukee and Philly but yeah, I'd probably have them as slight World Series favorites

The Knuder

• Which free agents, if any, do you see the Padres bringing back?

Anthony Franco

• Don't think it's all that likely they're keeping any of them besides Laureano, who has the easy yes on the club option
• Beyond that, King's the only one that I really see a path for, but it probably requires his market not materializing as hoped and turning to an opt-out situation
• Cease, Suarez, Arraez, ROH and Nestor all feel like they're gone. Diaz, Hart and Iglesias are minor league deal guys

Arise, Sir Loin of Beef

• Mets make the playoffs, yes or no? I'm guessing no.

Anthony Franco

• I still expect them to get in, though I'll admit that I'm kind of pulling for the Reds just to shake up the field

Dirt

• Thanks for the chat! Despite the broken hamate, Ozzie's option with the Braves next season is a no-brainer, right? If so, where does that leave Nacho? Utility infielder or trade bait? Is Nick Allen the odd man out?

Anthony Franco

• Agreed. $3M difference between the option price and the buyout gets you Kevin Newman or Luis Urías. Even with the downward trend and the injuries, Ozzie's better than those guys
• I think they'll trade Alvarez in a deal for some kind of pitching help. Nacho's not going to get you Joe Ryan or MacKenzie Gore but there'll be teams that'd like him in return for a back-end starter. Allen's glove-only profile fits better in a utility capacity. Probably need to work out a multi-year deal with HSK to keep him from opting out at that point

pitching chaos for everyone

• Will anyone pitch 7+ innings in one game this weekend?

Anthony Franco

• Haha Logan Webb goes Sunday at home against the Rockies. Might set the O/U at 8.2

john

• If Woodruff is out of the NLDS who takes the #3 start?  Quintana/Miz/Patrick all come with high risk.

Anthony Franco

• I think it's Patrick, maybe after an opener. In any case, not extending that third "starter" to go more than 3-4 innings. Get to the bullpen at the first sign of trouble

TheBeatlesShow

• Hey, Anthony.  Hope all is well.  Remind me, weren't the Tigers called 'the best team in baseball' around the middle of the season?  But the real questions:  If they do lose the division, where does that stack up against the greatest collapses of all time?  And, over the last month or so...or less than that, has Steven Vogt gotten himself a lot of votes for AL Mgr of the Year?
• 

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