Astros Rumors

Questions Remaining

Regardless of whether it’s fair, many are reluctant to brand the Astros as legitimate contenders because of perceived weaknesses in their rotation. In addition to the less-than-durable and typically mediocre Morton, they’re set to run out other starters off injury-shortened seasons in Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr. Keuchel is only two years removed from winning the AL Cy Young, but he tumbled to earth last year and then saw his season end in late August on account of shoulder inflammation. Despite an untenable walk rate (5.0 per nine), the curveball-loving McCullers stymied opposing offenses, though he dealt with shoulder and elbow issues along the way and didn’t pitch past Aug. 2.

While Morton, Keuchel and McCullers are now healthy, the Astros’ other two expected starters – Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers – aren’t at full strength. Even when they are, nobody would count either as a front-line starter, which is arguably a need for the Astros. Management doesn’t seem content with the team’s rotation options, as president Reid Ryan observed in December that Houston’s missing an ace and Luhnow attempted to trade for one throughout the offseason. Luhnow’s efforts focused on the likes of Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Danny Duffy, Sonny Gray and Jose Quintana, among others. Sale ultimately went from the White Sox to the Red Sox; Archer is still with the Rays, who aren’t in any rush to move him; Duffy signed an extension with the Royals; and Gray is now injured. That leaves Quintana, who looks like a shoo-in to leave the ChiSox via trade sometime soon. It’s no secret that the Astros want Quintana (as MLBTR’s Quintana archives show), but they’re also unwilling to deal a package consisting of Tucker and right-handers Francis Martes and Joe Musgrove to nab the ace southpaw.

Assuming a trade doesn’t come together by Opening Day, the Astros might not enter 2017 with a No. 1-caliber starter (though Keuchel certainly was one from 2014-15). Nevertheless, they will have at least six major league-caliber starters, including Musgrove, who showed well in his 62-inning debut last year and now looks ticketed for Triple-A. The 21-year-old Martes, meanwhile, is a unanimous top 40 prospect who will join Musgrove in Fresno and could break into the Astros’ rotation this season. Yet another Fresno-bound starter, David Paulino, is on a few top 100 lists, while Brady Rodgers is also on hand as further depth.

Sticking with pitching, Luhnow called the need to find another left-handed reliever as “glaring” going into the winter. He didn’t end up adding any to the Astros’ bullpen, though, meaning they’ll again count on Tony Sipp as their lone southpaw. Although Sipp was dreadful last season, he was highly effective in the preceding two seasons. Even if he’s unable to bounce back this year, Houston should still have an elite bullpen with Chris Devenski, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz setting up closer Ken Giles. All five of those righties handled lefty-swingers a year ago.

Supporting the Astros’ pitchers will be a lineup featuring three stars (Altuve, Correa and Springer) and several useful complements (Beltran, Reddick, McCann, Aoki and Gattis). There are questions centering on their other two prominent hitters, Gurriel (first base) and Bregman (third base). With uncertainty surrounding those two, it’s possible the Astros will miss Luis Valbuena, who signed with the Angels after a two-year stretch in Houston in which he manned both corner infield spots and batted .238/.329/.446 across 835 PAs.

The 32-year-old Gurriel had been a superstar in both Cuba and Japan, which helped lead the Astros to sign him to a $47.5MM contract last July, but he didn’t post appealing results in his late-season debut in the majors. Over 137 PAs, Gurriel batted a subpar .262/.292/.385. It would be unwise to write Gurriel off based on that small sample, of course, and Luhnow said last week he expects Gurriel “to be a high-average hitter who is going to hit a lot of doubles, have double-digit home run power and play very good defense at first or third or wherever he’s asked to play.” 

Bregman offers even more hope, as the 22-year-old lived up to his elite prospect hype by slashing .264/.313/.478 in his first 217 major league PAs last season. However, as Tony Blengino of FanGraphs explained earlier this month, Bregman’s batted-ball data indicates he was quite fortunate to have as much success as he did. That doesn’t mean Bregman will disappoint in 2017, but it might be wise to tamp down short-term expectations.

Deal Of Note

McCann was teammates with Beltran in each of the past three seasons in New York, and the former helped the Astros reel in the latter, according to Luhnow. Even with recruiting help from McCann, Houston had to pony up $16MM for Beltran, who encountered a robust market for his services despite being a one-dimensional player entering his age-40 season. Along with the Yankees, who had interest in re-signing Beltran, the Red Sox, Indians and Blue Jays were in the mix for the potential Hall of Fame outfielder. The Astros were confident they were going to pick up either Beltran or now-Indian Edwin Encarnacion, and they emerged with the older, less effective and cheaper player. That sounds harsh, but it’s not meant to knock Beltran, who remains an outstanding hitter.

Although he struggled in his first year as a Yankee, perhaps because of an injury, Beltran bounced back over the previous two seasons to combine for a terrific .286/.337/.493 line with 48 home runs – including 29 in a 2016 season spent between New York and Texas. Still in the Lone Star State, Beltran will try to help the Astros overtake the Rangers, winners of back-to-back AL West titles. Of course, this isn’t Beltran’s first stint in Houston – that came after it acquired him from the Royals in a June 2004 trade. Beltran flourished, especially when he nearly mashed the Astros to a World Series berth that October, and then left as a free agent at season’s end. Thirteen years later, he should again provide a threatening offensive presence on an Astros team with championship aspirations.

Overview

Back in June 2014, when the Luhnow-led Astros were wrapping up a long rebuild, Sports Illustrated declared that the franchise would win its first World Series in 2017. While that might prove overly optimistic roughly eight months from now, it’s clear that the Astros belong on a short list of legitimate championship contenders heading into the regular season. At the very least, thanks in part to Luhnow’s maneuverings from this past winter, Houston should be the favorite to win its division – a feat the team hasn’t achieved since 2001, when it was a member of the National League Central.

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Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.