The Astros and reigning AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $7.25MM salary, according to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle (on Twitter). That figure will set a new record for the largest salary ever awarded to a first-time arbitration eligible starting pitcher, shattering the previous record of $4.35MM (held by both Dontrelle Willis and David Price). Keuchel, a client of Frontline Athlete Management, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to receive $6.4MM this offseason, but he cleared even that aggressive projection by about 13 percent.
Astros Rumors
Arbitration Breakdown: Dallas Keuchel, Shelby Miller, Matt Harvey
Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Just like last year, our arbitration model expects three pitchers to break the decade-old record for starting pitchers reaching their first-year of eligibility for arbitration. As is generally the case, these pitchers are excellent extension candidates, and extensions are a big part of the reason why Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM arbitration salary from 2006 has stood this long as the record.
In reality, the record really should have been broken several times already. Most notably, Tim Lincecum was offered $8MM in 2010 when he requested $13MM upon exchanging figures with the Giants. He ultimately earned $9MM as part of a multi-year deal, but Willis’ record technically still stood, because Lincecum had not signed a one-year deal. Clayton Kershaw in 2012 was offered $6.5MM when requesting $10MM and ultimately signed a multi-year deal, giving him $7.75MM his first year. Just last year, one of the three pitchers projected to break Willis’ record, Lance Lynn, made $7MM as part of a multi-year deal, although it is less clear he would have earned that much had he not signed his three-year deal.
The strongest of the three cases this year is that of the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, Dallas Keuchel. He went 20-8 in 2015 with a 2.48 in 232 innings. The only other two platform-year Cy Young winners in recent history have been Lincecum and Kershaw, but both of them clearly had stronger careers than Keuchel before winning their Cy Young Awards. Lincecum had a 2.90 career ERA and Kershaw’s career ERA was 2.88, while Keuchel only has a 3.58 career ERA and was at 4.16 before his Cy Young season. Similarly, Lincecum was 40-17 career at the time, and Kershaw was 42-28, while Keuchel is only 41-35.
In addition to Keuchel, two other pitchers are projected to top the $4.35MM record for first-time eligible starting pitchers. Shelby Miller only went 6-17 in 2015, but his 3.02 ERA in 205 1/3 innings in his All-Star platform year, along with his 3.22 career ERA in 575 1/3 innings give him a strong projection anyway. Matt Harvey went 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA in 189 1/3 innings in his platform year, and he has a 25-18 career record with a 2.53 career ERA in 427 innings. While Keuchel is projected to earn $6.4MM, Miller is projected to earn $4.9MM, and Harvey is projected to earn $4.7MM .
Despite no hurler topping Willis’ $4.35MM record, a number of pitchers have gotten very close in recent years. Five players in the last six years have landed between $4MM and $4.35MM on one-year deals, and many more have received multi-year deals. Comparing Keuchel, Miller, and Harvey with these five hurlers, along with a few other players who fell just short of $4MM will help figure out whether our projection for these pitchers is appropriate.
Keuchel seems like a safe bet to break the $4.35MM record if he does have a one-year award or goes to a hearing. David Price, who tied Willis’ $4.35MM record, was 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA in 224 1/3 innings in his platform year, which Keuchel bested in each category. Keuchel also has the same number of wins as Price did for his career at the time (41) and a similar ERA (3.38 for Price, 3.58 for Keuchel). Strengthening Keuchel’s argument is the fact that Price had nearly 100 fewer career innings when he tied Willis’ record.
Chris Tillman, who earned $4.32MM last year, did so after a 13-6 record with 3.34 ERA in his platform year and only a 4.00 career ERA with 45 career wins. Keuchel clearly should out-earn Tillman, Price and Willis handily, although he is likely to fall short of the respective $8MM and $6.5MM figures that were offered to Kershaw and Lincecum prior to their multi-year deals. I suspect Keuchel will miss the $6.4MM projection, but could easily get close to $6MM — comfortably establishing a new record.
Shelby Miller may have a harder time hitting his projection. I suspect that the model is struggling to find pitchers with an ERA as good and with as many innings who did not have many wins. A couple of recent comparables emerge, both of which had single-digit wins in their platform year with low ERAs. Stephen Strasburg in 2014 earned $3.97MM a couple years ago after going 8-9 with a 3.00 ERA in his platform year, but his 183 innings that year are short of Miller’s 205, and Miller’s 575 career innings handily top Strasburg’s 434.
Travis Wood earned $3.9MM two years ago with a 9-12 platform year record, 200 platform year innings and 564 career innings, although his career ERA was 3.83. Miller easily bests that mark with 3.22. Their platform year ERAs were similar, however, with Wood at 3.11 and Miller at 3.02. Miller also struck out a few more hitters than Wood had. Overall, both Strasburg and Wood getting just shy of $4MM two years ago with worse pre-platform performances suggests that Miller should get over $4MM, even if his $4.9MM projection will be harder to land. Most likely, he will end up between $4MM and the $4.35MM record, unless Keuchel or Harvey re-sets the market and pushes his number upward.
It’s difficult to find comparables for Harvey, partly because of his injuries and partly because his playoff performance in 2015 could help his case. Cole Hamels’ case after his 2008 playoff success (although he was the World Series MVP) would have been a good match, even though it is stale, but he signed a multi-year deal instead. He did earn $4.35MM in a multi-year deal that could be a useful comparison. Hamels similarly did not have many platform year wins despite a strong ERA — he went 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA, which compares somewhat favorably to Harvey’s 13-8 with 2.71. Hamels did have 227 innings though, compared with Harvey’s 189. On the other hand, Harvey’s 2.53 career ERA clearly outdoes the 3.43 ERA held by Hamels at the time.
Mike Minor got a one-year deal for $3.85MM a couple years ago after going 13-9 with a 3.21 ERA in 204 2/3 innings, although his 3.90 career ERA is clearly worse than Harvey’s. However, his 507 1/3 career innings at the time exceed Harvey’s 427.
It is not too challenging to make a case that David Price’s numbers when he got $4.35MM are similar to Miller and Harvey. Both Miller and Harvey possess superior ERA marks, although they each also had fewer innings. Harvey’s record was better (13-8 versus 12-13) but Miller’s was worse (6-17). Price’s 3.38 career ERA was similar to Miller’s 3.22, but Harvey’s 2.53 is better. On the other hand, Price and Miller had matching innings totals, while Harvey was about 150 innings short.
It does not seem obvious that Harvey or Miller can top the Price/Willis record, so I suspect both of them will end up in the $4MM to $4.35MM range. Obviously, if Keuchel shatters Price’s record in advance, Harvey or Miller could have a better opportunity to top that figure themselves, but I would bet the model’s projections for this pair ultimately proves to be too high.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Astros Have Inquired With Braves On Ender Inciarte
The Astros have spoken with the Braves about center fielder Ender Inciarte, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link). It’s not clear what level of interest Houston has at this point.
Inciarte, 25, went to Atlanta as a key part of the sizable package sent by the D’Backs in exchange for Shelby Miller. He’s emerged as a sneakily valuable player over the last two seasons, delivering outstanding glovework with a solid bat at a bargain price. If he can keep churning out top-notch defensive metrics and repeat his strong .303/.338/.408 slash from last year, Inciarte would profile as a first-division regular.
Of course, Atlanta surely won’t part with Inciarte for anything less than a compelling price. The organization would have ample cause to keep him as a piece of their rebuilding plan, though obviously the same could have been said of some now-former Braves players — Andrelton Simmons, in particular. High-upside players at or near the majors would presumably top the Braves’ wish list, though the Astros have already shipped out quite a few of those in other recent swaps.
It’s not immediately obvious what Houston could have in mind with Inciarte. The team already has a high-upside veteran in center in Carlos Gomez, though he fell short of expectations after being acquired last summer, along with a cheap and speedy backup in Jake Marisnick. And the club seems set in the corners with George Springer and Colby Rasmus — both of whom are also capable of playing center.
It is intriguing to consider the possibilities, though, if the interest is serious. Crasnick says that he’d expect Houston would need to deal away Gomez if it were to cut a deal for Inciarte. That’s certainly one plausible scenario, though they’d be selling low — and in a potentially weak market — after giving up a major haul to get him just months ago. While we’re on hypotheticals, it’s conceptually possible that the team could dangle Springer for an elite young pitcher. We’ve heard suggestions before that the organization isn’t completely unwilling to consider such a scenario, and teams such as the Indians and Rays could theoretically match up. But that’s all pure speculation at this point, of course.
Free Agent Notes: Upton, Cespedes, Kennedy, ChiSox, Cardinals
Few could’ve predicted that Justin Upton’s market would play out so slowly, writes ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick in a lengthy examination of Upton’s journey to the open market. Crasnick notes that Upton is somewhat a victim of borderline unreachable expectations, noting that some view him as a disappointment for being a considerably above-average outfielder as opposed to the generational talent that some hoped for when scouts began raving about him at age 14 and when some outlets compared him to Ken Griffey Jr. as a prospect. Crasnick spoke to executives and Upton’s former skipper, Fredi Gonzalez, with many heaping praise on the 28-year-old — Gonzalez in particular. “He’s been one of my favorite players that I’ve managed in my career,” said Gonzalez. “He shows up at the ballpark every day ready to play. He’s respectful. He knows the game. He’s a great teammate and clubhouse guy. … I’m very surprised that he’s still out there. I think there are a lot of teams missing the boat on him. I really do.” Crasnick also spoke to execs about Upton’s defense, examined his perceived attitude problems as a prospect and also spoke to some in the industry about the potential difficulty of watching his brother struggle alongside him with the Braves and the Padres.
A few more notes on the free-agent market…
- While many (myself included) have speculated that Chris Davis is holding up the market, to an extent, for the remaining corner bats, ESPN’s Jayson Stark believes that Yoenis Cespedes is holding up the market more than Davis at this point (Twitter link). Some of the slow-moving market for top bats is unrelated to either player, he adds. From my vantage point, with the Orioles focused on Davis but standing as a logical landing spot for either Upton or Cespedes, the argument could be made that Davis is slowing things down. Jeff Todd and I recently discussed as much on the MLBTR Podcast.
- Jon Heyman tweets that as the starting pitching market continues to narrow, the Royals, Nationals, Astros and Rockies are the most likely landing spots for right-hander Ian Kennedy. However, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding feels differently, tweeting that if the Rockies make a rotation upgrade, it’s going to come via trade rather than a high-priced free agent like Kennedy. The Royals’ spacious park and elite outfield defense would seem, to me, to be an ideal fit for a fly-ball pitcher like Kennedy, while those same fly-ball tendencies and Kennedy’s previous home run troubles make him a poor fit at Coors Field.
- In his daily Insider-only column (subscription required), ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that there’s a belief around the industry that the White Sox are open to outfield upgrades but don’t want to spend at the levels necessary to land Upton or Cespedes. A second-tier option makes more sense, Olney notes, and while he stops short of speculating on specific names, I’ll add that players such as Dexter Fowler and Austin Jackson could be fits for the South Siders. (Gerardo Parra, too, would’ve made sense but agreed to a three-year pact with the Rockies earlier today.)
- While many Cardinals fans would like to see the Redbirds enter the market for Cespedes, Upton or another high-profile outfield bat, GM John Mozeliak told MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch that such a scenario isn’t likely. “I know that some people disagree and want us to do something else, but Matt Adams, having [Brandon] Moss, giving [Randal] Grichuk an opportunity to be the everyday center fielder feels right to us,” said Mozeliak. “If we go out and add an outfielder, where are they going to play? Who is not playing? How does that affect us? What does the short-term view look like compared to the long-term commitment? And honestly, we feel very comfortable with what we have.” Langosch writes that St. Louis has been watching the Upton, Cespedes, Fowler and Davis markets from the periphery but would only jump in if the price got to the point where the club felt the opportunity to add value was too good to pass up. Moss, according to Langosch, will get the chance to cement himself as primary option at first base.
Quick Hits: Yadiel Hernandez, Cardinals, Phillies, Indians
There’s already been a ton of news today regarding Cuban ballplayers, and there could be more to come in the weeks ahead. Former Serie Nacional star Yadiel Hernandez will hold a showcase for MLB clubs on February 23rd in Mexico City, MLBTR has learned. He defected this summer when he came to North Carolina with the Cuban national team, and Ben Badler of Baseball America noted earlier today (Twitter link) that Hernandez is one of the best position players available in a deep current pool of talent from the island nation. The 28-year-old has had his way with Cuban pitching at times — including a ridiculous .369/.509/.535 batting line that included 77 walks in 369 plate appearances last year — although Badler has explained previously that Hernandez is undersized and doesn’t possess loud tools. Nonetheless, every indication is that he could well be a viable big league player, so there’s sure to be ample interest.
Here are a few more stray notes from around the game:
- Cardinals GM John Mozeliak addressed the Astros’ computer hacking scandal for the first time, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has the story. Mozeliak seemingly expressed a cautious optimism that no other members of the organization would join former scouting director Chris Correa in being implicated in the improper database accessing. “I hope there isn’t,” he said. “I think before we totally engage in answering everything we need these proceedings to be concluded.” The Cards’ top baseball decisionmaker also added that he first became aware of the extend of what information Correa had accessed when he read the complaint recently. Otherwise, though, he did not get into the factual topics, indicating that the organization would wait to do that until Correa is sentenced in April.
- The Phillies announced several front office moves today, including the team’s previously-reported hiring of Ned Rice as assistant GM. Philadelphia also announced that Pat Gillick will return to a senior advisory role, while Benny Looper will shift into such a position after previously serving as an AGM. On the analytics side, Scott Freedman has been bumped up to director of baseball operations (from his former title of manager of baseball analytics) while the club made a full-time analyst position for Lewis Pollis, who penned a widely-read senior thesis on the market for front office talent.
- The Indians have parted ways with former director of Latin American operations Ramon Pena, as Badler reports. Both Pena and president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti indicated that the split was mutual and was the result of divergent visions for the team’s efforts in Latin America.
Latest On Astros-Cardinals Computer Breach Matter
There’s been a lot of action surrounding the guilty plea entered today by former Cardinals scouting director Chris Correa, in which he admitted to certain charges brought against him for an improper accessing of the Astros’ “Ground Control” database. The complaint against Correa revealed several important alleged details, as did his statements today in open court.
In particular, Correa suggested — when asked by the judge — that he had found proprietary Cardinals’ information in the Astros’ systems. (David Barron of the Houston Chronicle was on hand, and his Twitter timeline is chock full of information on the proceedings.) Of course, former Cardinals executive Jeff Luhnow moved from St. Louis to become the Astros’ general manager, which Correa says was the cause for his look into the competitor’s databases.
The Astros have issued a statement in response. Per Houston general counsel Giles Kibbe, the club is withholding comment on “the details” at present. But he did make clear that Houston “refute[s] Mr. Correa’s statement that our database contained any information that was proprietary to the St. Louis Cardinals.”
In theory, then, there are still at least two open matters for the league to consider: first, any punishment and/or compensation relating to the breach by a (now-former) Cardinals employee. And second, the question whether the St. Louis organization actually was harmed as well.
The league has made clear that it is not prepared to act on either or both subjects at present. Per a league statement:
“Major League Baseball appreciates the efforts of federal law enforcement authorities in investigating the illegal breach of the Astros’ baseball operations database, and identifying the perpetrator of this crime. We anticipate that the authorities will share with us the results of their investigation at the appropriate time, and we will determine what further actions to take after receiving all the relevant information.”
While it remains to be seen how things will proceed, preliminary indications are that a quiet resolution is more likely than a public battle between the organizations. Kibbe’s statement on behalf of the ’Stros also hinted as much. “We have a great amount of respect for Bill DeWitt and the Cardinals organization,” he said. “And, we are confident that Commissioner Manfred will guide MLB through this process in the best way possible.”
MLB’s constitution specifically provides that teams may not file suit against one another, but must instead take any disputes to the commissioner as an arbitrator. (H/t to Nathaniel Grow of Fangraphs.) While a lawsuit could still theoretically be pursued, if Houston were to identify some loophole that it might argue for as an exemption from the arbitration requirement, that seems as unlikely to succeed as it is to be attempted.
Per the proceedings and the complaint (via Wendy Thurm, on Twitter), the government alleged as a result of its investigation that Correa had done quite a bit of significant snooping. According to the government, he accessed the system at least during the time frame of March of 2013 through June of 2014, and also made his way into the e-mail accounts of two unnamed (but easily assumed) “victims” — executives who had moved from the Cardinals to the Astros.
Among other things, Correa is alleged in May of 2013 to have peaked at the Astros’ ranking of 2013 draft-eligible players; large swaths of other draft-related scouting and assessment data; scouting information relating to the Cardinals’ system; and logs of Houston’s trade talks. He is said to have accessed the system again during the draft. And he allegedly went back to check the trade notes on the morning of the 2013 trade deadline.
While the Astros made significant changes to their database security after the Ground Control system was publicized early in 2014, Correa was allegedly able to find the new password information because of the aforementioned email access. He is charged with again checking in on the team’s trade logs, draft information, international evaluations, and other information in March of 2014.
Ultimately, of course, whether or not Correa was able to find the Cardinals’ information on the Astros’ system, that was never going to be much of a legal defense, as prosecutor Kenneth Magidson explained to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. As reported earlier today, Correa pleaded guilty to five (out of twelve total) counts of unauthorized access to computer information, which come with a maximum of up to a five-year prison sentence, plus fines and restitution. While sentencing will not take place until April 11th, Goold explains that Correa will likely receive three or four years of jail time. That’s due to the terms of the plea deal, under which Correa acknowledged that the value of the information taken was around $1.7MM and that he had attempted to conceal his identity in accessing the system.
Former Cardinals Scouting Director Chris Correa To Plead Guilty In Astros’ Data Breach Case
Former Cardinals scouting director Chris Correa, who was dismissed by the organization earlier this year for his role in the Cardinals’ unauthorized accessing of the Astros’ proprietary computer network, is scheduled to plead guilty to criminal charges today, report Brian Costa and Devlin Barrett of the Wall Street Journal. Per the report, Correa has tentatively agreed to plead guilty to five of 12 charges against him. It’s unclear at this time if further St. Louis employees will be implicated or if any further legal repercussions will stem from Correa’s plea.
For those unfamiliar with the situation, the Cardinals were reported to be the subject of a federal investigation in connection with an unauthorized entry into Houston’s proprietary network, named Ground Control, back in June. Roughly a year prior to the report, a large amount of Astros’ trade notes and discussions were leaked and became public knowledge, bringing considerable scrutiny on the Astros organization. Then-and-current Houston GM Jeff Luhnow previously worked for the Cardinals, and it later emerged that one or more members of the St. Louis organization had been involved in the database breach.
Correa, at the time of his firing, denied any illegal activity via a statement from his lawyer. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported at the time that Correa claimed to access the database only to verify that Luhnow did not take any proprietary information with him when leaving the Cardinals organization. Of course, it’s not clear that such a defense would hold much water from a legal perspective. And Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reported shortly after the Cardinals’ involvement first came to light that the team’s employees had accessed Ground Control on multiple occasions, with separate instances reportedly occurring in 2012, 2013 and again in 2014.
West Notes: Reyes, Maeda, Kazmir, Fowler
An MLB source tells Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that there is still no timeline regarding possible disciplinary action against Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes. (Twitter link.) That appears to be due, at least in part, to the fact that the criminal proceedings have not been wrapped up. While the league’s domestic violence policy does not require criminal action for the commissioner to impose punishment, there is arguably less cause to move swiftly given that the allegations arose during the offseason.
- The Astros made a play for Japanese hurler Kenta Maeda before he reached agreement with the Dodgers, according to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. Houston remains an interesting potential factor in the free agent market. While the team probably does not need to make a splash, it is not difficult to imagine the team emerging as a dark horse for several players.
- Houston was also said to have had interest in retaining Scott Kazmir before he decided to join the Dodgers, and it appears they were far from alone in that regard. The veteran lefty said that a dozen clubs had at least some communication with his camp this winter, J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group tweets.
- The fact that free agent outfielder Dexter Fowler appeared at a Golden State Warriors game recently should not be interpreted as a sign he’s about to sign with the Giants, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News tweets. He hears that “nothing is cooking” between Fowler and the club at this time. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Chris Haft looks at the fit of some of San Francisco’s possible outfield targets.
Free Agent Notes: Orioles, Gallardo, Marlins, Pearce
The Orioles appear poised to once again do quite a bit of their offseason shopping after the New Year, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. According to Olney, the Orioles remain engaged on a number of free agents, which isn’t a surprise given the holes permeating the roster. While the O’s have addressed catcher (perhaps unexpectedly in the form of Matt Wieters accepting the qualifying offer), one corner outfield spot (Hyun-soo Kim) and first base/DH (Mark Trumbo), the team still has needs in the rotation and in right field, to say nothing of a potential reunion with Chris Davis (which would move Trumbo to DH or right field).
Here are a few notes on the market’s remaining free agents…
- One of those free agents appears to be Yovani Gallardo, as SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets that the the Orioles, Astros and Royals remain the primary suitors for the right-hander. All three of those teams, of course, have been prominently linked to Gallardo in the past, so this isn’t necessarily a new development in his market. However, it’s been awhile since we’ve heard much on the Gallardo front, and the news that all three remain interested is still noteworthy. Any of the three clubs would have to part with a draft pick to sign Gallardo, which might make Kansas City the best fit, as their current pick, No. 24, is the worst of the three teams said to have interest. Additionally, the Royals will gain a draft pick if Alex Gordon signs elsewhere, as many expect, thus softening the blow of parting with the 24th overall selection. The O’s could conceivably land two picks in the event that Davis and Wei-Yin Chen sign with new clubs, but parting with the No. 14 pick would still sting, even if they could recoup much of that slot value via the potential comp picks.
- If and when the Marlins finalize their near-agreement with right-hander Edwin Jackson, the team will continue its search for starting pitching, writes MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Among the names that could interest the Marlins are Cliff Lee, Doug Fister, Ian Kennedy and Cuban right-hander Yaisel Sierra, writes Frisaro. However, he notes that the draft pick compensation attached to Kennedy could prevent the Marlins from a strong pursuit of Kennedy. That would seem an odd hold-up for Miami — an organization that has been perfectly willing to trade its Competitive Balance draft selections for seemingly underwhelming returns in past seasons (although their addition of right-hander Bryan Morris in such a trade does now appear to have been a shrewd one). It should also be noted that Kennedy is represented by Scott Boras, with whom Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria and Marlins president David Samson have clashed on numerous occasions over the past year (most notably regarding Boras-represented Marlins players Marcell Ozuna and Jose Fernandez).
- Infielder/outfielder Steve Pearce is seeking a two-year deal, Rich Dubroff of CSN Mid-Atlantic tweets. He still looks like an interesting bat, and his market remains an interesting one to watch, but Pearce could be forced to wait for more action at the higher end before things clear up for his own outlook. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Pearce would ultimately get a two-year deal with $14MM in guaranteed money.
AL Notes: Angels, Freeman, Astros, Vargas
It was on this day in 1973 that George Steinbrenner and a group of investors purchased the Yankees from CBS. While the amount of money in the game has unquestionably risen by leaps and bounds in the last 43 years, it’s still stunning to realize that Steinbrenner and company paid only $10MM to buy a team that Forbes now values a whopping $1.85 billion in their most recent ranking of the world’s most valuable sports franchises. (The Yankees tied with the Dallas Cowboys for third on that list, by the way, behind only soccer giants Manchester United and Real Madrid.) Here’s some news from around the American League…
- With the Angels uneasy about surpassing the luxury tax threshold, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez looks at how the club can upgrade itself. Gonzalez thinks the Halos will move a starter (at least one of Hector Santiago, C.J. Wilson, Tyler Skaggs, Nick Tropeano or Matt Shoemaker) in order to acquire a left fielder or second baseman. Then again, the Angels may also be comfortable in having Johnny Giavotella return as the regular second baseman so that position may not be as major an area of need.
- A Craig Gentry/Daniel Nava platoon is currently in the cards for left field, though Gonzalez won’t rule out the idea of Anaheim signing a big name like Justin Upton, Alex Gordon or Yoenis Cespedes. With the Halos only around $4MM under the tax limit, however, signing any of those players (or even second-tier outfielders like Gerardo Parra or Denard Span) would put the club in danger of exceeding the tax threshold in 2017 as well, and thus paying a bigger penalty. With a much thinner free agent class in 2016-17, however, Gonzalez believes “this is the time to strike” for the Angels to land a big left field bat, and they’ll have some hope of getting under the tax limit with roughly $48MM coming off the books next winter.
- An Astros trade for Freddie Freeman is “simply not going to happen,” a source tells ESPN’s Jim Bowden (subscription-only column). The Astros and Braves had discussions about the first baseman earlier this winter, though those talks “went nowhere” and Atlanta GM John Coppolella has since flatly denied the possibility of Freeman playing elsewhere in 2016. While Freeman would check a lot of boxes for Houston, it would clearly take a major trade package to pry him away from the Braves, and the Astros may have already expended a lot of their available prospect capital in their trade for Ken Giles.
- Bowden’s piece examines all 30 teams and the missing piece (or pieces) Bowden feels they still need to address on their roster. For instance, Bowden isn’t sold on Rusney Castillo and thinks the Red Sox should make a play for Justin Upton, though he’s heard that the Sox are “not looking to make any more moves.”
- There were some rumors swirling about the Twins dealing Kennys Vargas to Japan or Korea earlier this winter, though MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger feels it would be a mistake for Minnesota to move Vargas while he still has a minor league option remaining. Still, Vargas is running out of time to show he belongs on the 25-man roster, especially now that the Twins have signed Byung-ho Park.
