Cubs Rumors

Managerial Notes: Ross, Showalter, Venable, Jay

By Nick Deeds | October 8, 2023 at 1:52pm CDT

The Cubs had a rollercoaster season in 2023. The club entered the campaign with a projected win total of just 76.5 according to Fangraphs and fell to ten games below .500 by early June, prompting speculation that the club would deal Marcus Stroman in Cody Bellinger in what seemed sure to go down as the third straight rebuilding year for Chicago. The team turned things around, however, rattling off a 27-17 record from mid June to the end of July and prompting the club to add Jeimer Candelario rather than execute the anticipated sell-off. The club entered early September with their playoff odds soaring to over 90% but collapsed down the stretch, ultimately losing 15 of their last 22 to miss the playoff by just one game.

Given the club’s peculiar season, it’s hardly a surprise that manager David Ross emerged as a polarizing figure among Cubs fans. That being said, club officials remained steadfast in their support of the manager, with both chairman Tom Ricketts and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer backing Ross as the club’s manager headed into 2024. With that being said, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney indicate that Ross’s spot as manager is less certain in the long term, saying that “The bottom line is that the 2024 team has to win or else Hoyer may be forced to look in another direction” for the club’s manager.

The 2023 campaign was Ross’s fourth season as manager, and his second with a winning record. He managed a third place finish in NL Manager of the Year voting when the Cubs made the postseason under his guidance during the shortened 2020 campaign, though the club was swept by the Marlins in the Wild Card Series. The club then began rebuilding in 2021 and 2022 with consecutive deadline sell-offs that saw the departure of established regulars like Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant. Overall, Ross sports a 262-284 record as Chicago’s manager.

More notes regarding managerial situations around the league…

After being fired as Mets manager last week, veteran skipper Buck Showalter is reportedly hoping to return to the dugout, with the vacancy in Anaheim drawing his particular interest. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Angels are reciprocating Showalter’s interest, with Nightengale noting that Showalter was the first choice of ex-Angels GM Billy Eppler to lead the club following the 2019 season before the club ultimately decided on Joe Maddon. Eppler has since been replaced as the club’s GM by Perry Minasian, though Nightengale notes that he and Showalter worked together when Showalter was manager of the Rangers from 2003-06.
Nightengale also discusses other potential managerial candidates around the league, describing Rangers associate manager Will Venable as “the favorite” to take over for retiring Guardians manager Terry Francona in Cleveland. 2023 was Venable’s first season as associate manager in Texas. Prior to joining the Rangers, he acted as bench coach of the Red Sox under Alex Cora and as a base coach for the Cubs. Venable has been a frequent subject of interest during a variety of managerial searches in recent years, interviewing for the position with the Cubs, Giants, Astros, Tigers and A’s in the past. Nightengale also mentions Marlins first base coach Jon Jay as a “potential candidate” for managerial openings around the league, though he does not specify which clubs may have interest in Jay, who just wrapped up his first season in the big league dugout.

Jed Hoyer On Bellinger, Hendricks, Ross

By Leo Morgenstern | October 3, 2023 at 2:58pm CDT

Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer met with reporters on Tuesday (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) to discuss his team’s disappointing finish to the 2o23 season and his plans for the upcoming offseason. Topics of interest included the team missing the playoffs, Kyle Hendricks’ and Cody Bellinger’s futures in Chicago, and manager David Ross’ performance in 2023.

While the Cubs finished above .500 for the first time in three years, Hoyer made it clear he didn’t view the season as a success. While most didn’t see the Cubs as serious contenders entering the year, the front office had postseason aspirations from the get-go. Thus, when the Cubs were eliminated after the penultimate game on the schedule, Hoyer was in no mood to celebrate a mere winning season.

However, that doesn’t mean he saw nothing to celebrate in 2023. The executive praised the work David Ross put in this season, extolling the skipper’s willingness to accept criticism and work through disagreements. He left no room for doubt that Ross will return next year. Rather than blaming the manager for what went wrong, Hoyer made sure to give him plenty of credit for all the ways in which the club improved. His comments about the rest of the coaches were less straightforward, and he would only say that further conversations about the coaching staff will take place in the coming days.

Hoyer also had nothing but good things to say about Bellinger and Hendricks, each of whom had bounce-back seasons. Bellinger slashed .307/.356/.525 with 20 stolen bases while splitting his time between first base and center field. He finished with 4.1 FanGraphs WAR in 130 games, finally looking like an All-Star again after two straight seasons of subpar performance. Hoyer said he’d be happy to have the lefty batter back next year but acknowledged he might walk in free agency. If Bellinger does leave, however, the Cubs are committed to replacing his offensive production in the lineup.

As for Hendricks, who pitched to a 3.74 ERA in 24 starts, Hoyer expressed that he’d love to keep the veteran starter in Chicago “for next year and beyond.” That being said, he would not commit to picking up the righty’s $16MM club option for 2024. While $16MM is a perfectly reasonable price to pay for a capable mid-rotation starter, the Cubs might be planning to pay Hendricks his $1.5M buyout instead and then work toward a multi-year deal with a lower annual salary.

Hoyer would not commit to a certain amount of spending over the winter, although he mentioned that there is no hard and fast rule from ownership to stay under the luxury tax threshold. The Cubs were aggressive last winter, signing Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly, Trey Mancini, and Bellinger to eight-figure deals. While Hoyer didn’t say anything to suggest he’d spend quite as much this offseason, he did say that he wants to retain the momentum from last winter’s spending spree.

Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts On Ross, Hendricks, Payroll

By Mark Polishuk | October 1, 2023 at 9:20pm CDT

After losing seasons in both 2021 and 2022, the Cubs finished 83-79 this year, representing some progress. Unfortunately for Wrigleyville, that record left the team one game behind the Diamondbacks for the last NL wild card slot, as a 5-12 slide in the Cubs’ last 17 games quickly muddied what seemed like a clear path to the playoffs a few weeks ago.

As such, team chairman Tom Ricketts was measured in his praise when speaking with reporters (including The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and The Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro) today. While “there was a lot of excitement and the organizational health is as strong as it’s been in a long, long time,” Ricketts also said “I don’t think that we want to start calling seasons we don’t make the playoffs good seasons. That’s a consolation prize and we don’t play for consolation prizes.”

Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently gave manager David Ross a public vote of confidence, seemingly confirming that Ross would return for 2024 (the final guaranteed year of the skipper’s contract). The odds of Ross continuing with the team grew even stronger today when Ricketts also credited the manager’s work.

“I think Rossy did a great job. He creates a great clubhouse culture, the players love playing for him,” Ricketts said. “He keeps a steady, balanced approach game in and game out, that you need over the course of 162 games.” Specifically citing the full-season aspect in a year when the Cubs started with a 26-36 record, Ricketts noted that “when the team got down, way below .500 and it looked like the season was over, he didn’t let it go. He got the guys back and playing hard. We got to here. He was a big part of that.”

Another Wrigleyville staple also return in 2024, as Ricketts said “at this point I would see [Kyle Hendricks] coming back,” though the chairman said Hoyer would ultimately be making the decision. Chicago holds a $16MM club option ($1.5MM buyout) on Hendricks for next season, and it seemed like Hendricks was on the decline after down years in both 2021 and 2022. However, the veteran righty bounced back nicely from an injury-shortened 2022 to post a 3.74 ERA over 137 innings this year, increasingly his chances of getting that option exercised. Even if Marcus Stroman doesn’t opt out of the final year of his contract, retaining Hendricks might still make sense to bolster the rotation depth.

The rest of Chicago’s payroll picture will naturally factor into the $14.5MM decision on Hendricks. Ricketts again stated that Hoyer is calling the shots on player personnel, but with an Opening Day payroll of roughly $184.2MM last March, Ricketts said “I think we’ll stay at those levels” for 2024, and “we’ll see where that shakes out” in terms of whether or not the Cubs would be willing to boost spending closing to the $237MM luxury tax line.

The Cubs’ rebuilding efforts of the previous two seasons helped add a lot of younger talent into the system, which Ricketts cited as another (and perhaps wiser) method of improving the Major League roster. “We’ve got a lot of good young players and hopefully some will be ready to go next year so we can bring homegrown talent to supplement the guys we have out there,” Ricketts said.

“That’s the ultimate way you maintain consistency and try to stay in the playoff hunt for years to come…The key to consistency is to not build a one-year super team, but to try to get to the playoffs as often as possible. You do that by finding guys that you like, giving them extensions, solidifying your core and then trying to supplement them with guys from your system and the occasional free agent. That’s going to be our strategy going forward.”

It isn’t as if Ricketts and Hoyer have shied away from larger investments, such as signing Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, or Jameson Taillon, or in locking up Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ through 2026 on contract extensions. However, should Stroman opt out and Cody Bellinger leave in free agency, that is automatically two big holes that need to be addressed, in addition to the Cubs’ other roster needs.

At the very least, Ricketts’ comment seemingly indicates that the Cubs will make a measured effort at best to re-sign Bellinger, who figures to land one of the winter’s biggest contracts. It could be that the front office and ownership are willing to spend a bit bigger now that the Cubs have gotten over the .500 hump and back into playoff contention, though it may take a particular target (i.e. Swanson last winter) to really move the organization to make a splash.

Cubs Announce Several Roster Moves

By Nick Deeds | October 1, 2023 at 12:54pm CDT

The Cubs announced several roster moves this afternoon. The club selected the contracts of right-handers Shane Greene and Tyler Duffey, while transferring infielder Nick Madrigal and right-hander Michael Fulmer to the 60-day IL to clear space on the 40-man roster for the duo. Right-hander Hayden Wesneski and left-hander Jordan Wicks were optioned to the minors to make room for the duo on the active roster. In a separate pair of moves, second baseman Nico Hoerner was placed on the 10-day IL with a left knee contusion while infielder Jared Young was recalled to replace Hoerner on the active roster.

Greene is in the tenth season of his big league career, having debuted as a member of the Yankees back in 2014. From 2017-2020, Greene was a strong set-up option at the back of the bullpen for the Tigers and Braves, posting a 3.25 ERA and 4.04 FIP in 221 1/3 innings of work, including his lone All Star campaign in 2019. Unfortunately, he’s struggled badly since then with a 6.83 ERA in 27 2/3 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign. Greene was selected to the major league roster by the Cubs earlier this year, but recorded just one scoreless inning before being outrighted off the 40-man roster. Now he’s back for the final game of the season, with the Cubs having been eliminated from postseason contention last night.

Duffey, 31, spent his entire career as a member of the Twins prior to the 2023 campaign. Since his debut in 2015, he’s posted a 4.57 ERA and 3.96 FIP in 475 innings of work with Minnesota. Upon hitting free agency last offseason, Duffey signed on with the Cubs on a minor league deal but is only just cracking the big league roster despite a solid 3.77 ERA in 45 1/3 innings of work at the Triple-A level. That’s in part thanks to a elevated 12.6% walk rate. Still Duffey posted a solid 29% strikeout rate and will now appear in the ninth big league season of his career, should he get into today’s game.

Departing the roster to make room for the pair of veterans are Wesneski and Wicks, a pair of youngsters who each got auditions in the Chicago rotation this season. Wesneski posted a 4.72 ERA and 5.52 FIP across 87 2/3 innings of work with the big league club, while Wicks sported a sterling 3.00 ERA and solid 3.96 FIP through six starts before getting shelled during last night’s game against the Brewers in Milwaukee, which raised his season stats in the majors to a 4.41 ERA and 4.70 FIP. Both youngsters figure to enter Spring Training next season as potential options for the Cubs at the major league level.

Meanwhile, Hoerner heads to the IL after fouling a pitch off his knee during Friday’s game and sitting out on Saturday. With the Cubs having been eliminated from postseason contention last night, clearly the club saw no reason to have Hoerner play through the injury on the last day of the season. It was a strong campaign for Hoerner, who slashed .283/.346/.383 in 688 trips to the plate while going 43-for-50 on the basepaths and playing elite defense at second base. Taking Hoerner’s place on the active roster is Young, a 27-year-old rookie who made his MLB debut with the Cubs last year. Through 65 trips to the plate in the big leagues the past two seasons, Young has slashed .224/.308/.466 while playing first base and right field.

The moves are purely procedural for both Madrigal and Fulmer, who were already on the injured list through the end of the season.

NL Central Notes: Keller, Cubs, Lauer

By Nick Deeds | September 30, 2023 at 10:09pm CDT

The Pirates and right-hander Mitch Keller have previously discussed a contract extension as recently as this spring, and while no deal got done back then, it appears those talks could continue with the offseason on the horizon. As relayed by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Keller recently spoke openly about his desire to hammer out a long-term deal with the Pirates. “Hopefully this offseason we can get something going with extension talks,” Keller said. “I would love to be part of it and be here for however many years. I think we have a really good window here to really do something special.”

It’s easy to see why the Pirates would have interest in locking up Keller, as the 27-year-old righty has proven to be a steadying presence in the club’s starting rotation over the past two seasons, with a 4.08 ERA and 3.83 FIP across 353 1/3 innings of work with a 23% strikeout rate. A first-time All Star in 2023, Keller posted a 3.31 ERA and 3.32 FIP while striking out 26.7% of batters faced in the first half. While the wheels came off for Keller when he allowed a 5.59 ERA over his final 13 starts of the season, the talent he flashed in the first half is that of a mid-rotation arm or better. That’s a particularly valuable commodity for a Pirates team that sports a core dominated by hitters like Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, and Endy Rodriguez.

More from around the NL Central…

Pittsburgh’s loss to the Marlins this evening officially eliminated the Cubs from postseason contention, and plenty of criticism from fans and media has been levied toward club manager David Ross as the club’s playoff odds steadily sunk from a high-water mark of 92% in early September. Despite that outside criticism, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently stood by his manager, telling reporters (including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune) that “People are going to ask you about your bad decisions 100 times more than they’re going to ask about your good decisions. That is the job… I’m looking at ‘What can you do better and keep learning?’” With Hoyer defending his manager, it seems likely that Ross will return for the 2024 campaign, which is the final guaranteed season of his contract. The Cubs hold a club option on his services for the 2025 season.
Brewers left-hander Eric Lauer returned to the club today more than three months after being optioned to the minors back in June. As noted by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Lauer was shut down for much of the summer due to issues in both of his shoulders and his left elbow. Lauer returned to the big leagues for a start against the Cubs this evening, but the lefty allowed eight runs on nine hits and four walks in four innings of work, ballooning his season ERA to 6.56 across ten appearances (nine starts). Between Lauer’s struggles and increasing price in arbitration, Hogg notes that it “seems unlikely” Lauer will return to Milwaukee in 2024. If today marks the end of Lauer’s time with the Brewers, he’ll depart with a career 4.05 ERA (102 ERA+) in 331 innings since being acquired from the Padres alongside Luis Urias in exchange for Trent Grisham and Zach Davies.

NL Central Notes: Wainwright, Azolay, Hoerner, Duarte

By Mark Polishuk | September 30, 2023 at 9:13am CDT

Adam Wainwright’s 200th career win (from seven innings of shutout ball against the Brewers on September 18) has been confirmed as the last pitching appearance of the right-hander’s outstanding career, but Wainwright stepped up to the plate one final time in yesterday’s 19-2 Cardinals loss to the Reds. With the game already out of hand by the sixth inning, Wainwright pinch-hit for DH Luken Baker, and grounded out to second to conclude the 847th plate appearance of his career.

There was a loose plan in place to give Wainwright at least one PA during the final series of his career, though with the Reds still alive in the playoff race, the Cardinals weren’t going to do anything to do impact the integrity of the game just for the sake of a ceremonial at-bat. However, the lopsided score Friday provided an opportunity for Wainwright to hit for what will likely be the final time, barring another blowout result in the next two games or if the Reds are officially eliminated from contention. Wainwright has a .194/.221/.293 slash line and 10 homers during his career.

Cubs Activate Jeimer Candelario From 10-Day Injured List

By Nick Deeds | September 27, 2023 at 4:51pm CDT

The Cubs announced this afternoon that infielder Jeimer Candelario has been activated from the 10-day injured list. Infielder Jared Young was optioned to Triple-A Iowa in a corresponding move.

The return of Candelario, 29, should provide the Cubs with a boost for the final five games of the 2023 regular season, all of which could prove crucial for Chicago. Entering play today, the Cubs hold just a half-game lead over the Marlins and a 1.5-game lead over the Reds for the final NL Wild Card spot. Candelario was Chicago’s big splash at the trade deadline this year, as they shipped a pair of prospects to the Nationals in lefty D.J. Herz and shortstop Kevin Made to land the infielder’s services.

At the time of the trade, Candelario was slashing an impressive .258/.342/.481 in 419 trips to the plate with 30 doubles and 16 homers. He got off to a hot start in Chicago with a .305/.370/.524 slash line in his first 92 trips to the plate with the club, though he entered a brutal slump for his final 13 games prior to hitting the shelf with a .083/.227/.278 line across 44 trips to the plate. Adding the bat Candelario flashed at the start of his time with the Cubs this year, or even the production from his stint with the Nationals earlier this year, would provide a huge boost to a Cubs lineup that has been forced to rely on depth options like Miles Mastrobuoni, Nick Madrigal, and Patrick Wisdom in his absence.

Making room for Candelario on the active roster is Young, who has looked like a roughly league-average corner bat during his limited time in the big leagues. In 21 games (65 plate appearances) across the 2022 and 2023 campaigns, the 27-year-old rookie owns a .224/.308/.466 slash line with a 29.2% strikeout rate. In addition to those solid small-sample numbers in the big leagues, Young has torn the cover off the ball at the Triple-A level this year with a fantastic .310/.417/.577 slash line in 376 trips to the plate while playing all four corners.

Candelario may not be the only key Cubs piece returning this week, as right-hander Adbert Alzolay told reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) that his live bullpen session today went well and that he’s hopeful he’ll be able to return for the final series of the regular season in Milwaukee, which begins on Friday. The return of Alzolay could have an even bigger impact for Chicago than Candelario, as the club’s fWAR out of the bullpen (-0.2) since losing Alzolay to the injured list with a forearm strain earlier this month is bottom three in the majors. Alzolay has excelled in 2023 while stepping into the closer role, racking up 22 saves while posting a 2.71 ERA and 3.00 FIP in 63 innings of work.

NL Injury Notes: Hoskins, Davis, Mitchell, Candelario, Alzolay

By Leo Morgenstern | September 27, 2023 at 8:38am CDT

Phillies manager Rob Thomson isn’t ruling out the possibility that Rhys Hoskins will play in the postseason. More specifically, the skipper told hosts on the WIP Morning Show that if Philadelphia makes it back to the World Series, Hoskins could be available to DH or pinch-hit.

The first baseman tore his ACL during spring training and has not played for the Phillies since last October. However, he’s taking batting practice and running the bases, and he appears to be progressing well. The possibility of his return remains a long shot – Philadelphia would have to make the World Series first, and even then, it’s no guarantee – but still, this is encouraging news for the club.

Hoskins has an .846 OPS and a 126 wRC+ in his career, both of which would rank second among qualified Phillies hitters this season. He was instrumental to the team’s postseason run last fall, clubbing six home runs and driving in 12 across 17 games.

In other National League injury news…

J.D. Davis exited early on Tuesday night after a rough slide into third base. The Giants later informed reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area) that the third baseman had suffered a shoulder strain, although the severity of the injury remains unclear. The 30-year-old has been San Francisco’s most durable player this season, leading the team in plate appearances and games played.
Brewers rookie Garrett Mitchell was spotted on the field ahead of Tuesday night’s contest with the Cardinals. The outfield prospect has been on the injured list since mid-April, but he is hoping to return for the playoffs. The 25-year-old told reporters (including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com) that he could remain on the IL for the rest of the regular season but still make the postseason roster. He is awaiting one final medical appointment before he is fully cleared to return, and he seems optimistic about his chances to play some kind of role for the Brewers this October.
Cubs manager David Ross spoke to reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) to provide an update on Jeimer Candelario. Chicago’s big addition at the trade deadline has been on the IL since September 11 with a lower back strain, but he could return as soon as this evening against the Braves. The Cubs could certainly use his switch-hitting bat in the lineup as they try to fend off their opponents in the Wild Card race over the final five days of the season. In other Cubs news, closer Adbert Alzolay is making progress in his attempt to return from a forearm strain. He is hoping to face live hitters in the next few days.

Big Hype Prospects: Caminero, Langford, Holliday, Carter, Marte

By Brad Johnson | September 25, 2023 at 10:43pm CDT

As the clock runs out on the 2023 season, we take a look at the Big Hype Prospects who have advanced their hype-levels to all new… levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Junior Caminero, 20, SS/3B, TBR (MLB)
(AA) 351 PA, 20 HR, 3 SB, .309/373/.548

The will they/won’t they dance with Caminero finally resolved. Despite foregoing a promotion to Triple-A, the Rays saw fit to inject an offensive weapon into their postseason repertoire. Part of me wonders how much gamesmanship went into leaving Caminero at Double-A, as if the Rays could convince their playoff rivals he wouldn’t be promoted, maybe they would scout him less? A player of his age and profile undoubtedly has exploitable weaknesses, so the deeper the Rays can get into the postseason before those weaknesses are discovered, the better. Caminero batted fifth in his first two MLB games, going 2-for-9 with a walk and producing impressive exit velocities on six batted balls. While small sample caveats apply, the beauty of exit velocity is instant gratification. A 112-mph EV immediately validates a hitter as possessing impressive pop. All the other stats, well, they need more time to mature into larger samples.

Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (AAA)
(4 levels) 200 PA, 10 HR, 12 SB, .360/.480/.677

With Caminero up, Langford is the next future superstar on the cusp of promotion. We discussed him last week prior to his promotion to Triple-A. Since then, he’s batted .368/.538/.526 in 26 plate appearances with MLB-level exit velocities. Round Rock has a three-game series remaining for the PCL Championship, and I suspect we’ll see Langford join the Rangers upon the conclusion of the series. Where he fits on the roster is less certain. Leody Taveras is a quality defender with a league-average bat, and Evan Carter has performed well in limited action. Langford likely represents a net upgrade on both outfielders, but it can be tough to justify changing something that’s working well. Now might be the wrong moment to mess with team chemistry.

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(4 levels) 581 PA, 12 HR, 24 SB, .323/.442/.499

Like Langford, the Norfolk Tides have a championship series over the next three days. If Holliday is summoned to the Majors, it will likely follow these games. He’s had a longer stint in Triple-A, and after a slow start, he’s up to .267/.396/.400 in 91 plate appearances. His average quality of contact is better than a typical Major Leaguer, but his top-end EVs are poor. That’s no cause for concern. Holliday is a teenager. If anything, it might indicate that the Orioles are best served to play it slow rather than forcing an awkward situation with a last-minute promotion. Holliday might represent a modest upgrade over Adam Frazier and Jordan Westburg at second base. He certainly improves upon seldom-used benchman Ryan McKenna. Whether that’s sufficient cause for a promotion is a tough question to answer.

Evan Carter, 21, OF, TEX (MLB)
(CPX/AA/AAA) 513 PA, 12 HR, 25 SB, .288/.413/.450

Though he is deservedly a Top 10 prospect, Carter profiles differently than most of the top names. He’s one of the surest things in the minors. True stardom might be out of his grasp, especially in this rich era of uber-prospects. Then again, no era of baseball has offered players such tangible opportunity to transform their game. The high-floor, low-ceiling expectation is reinforced by a profile, build, and approach that screams “Brandon Nimmo clone.” Nimmo, of course, recently signed a nine-figure deal entering his age-30 season, hence everyone’s comfort ranking Carter highly. Still, nobody expects Nimmo to carry the Mets. He’s a rich man’s complementary piece. Carter seems destined for a similar role.

Carter is off to a hot start in the Majors. Improbably, he’s hit four home runs in 54 plate appearances as part of a .318/.426/.705 batting line. The dingers, in addition to a .400 BABIP, have served to carry his offensive line beyond even the wildest expectations. Look under the hood, and you’ll see Carter produces only modest quality of contact. He has a knack for barreling the ball, but those barrels aren’t impactful. Like Holliday, this is more of a “now” problem than a future concern. He’ll develop more pop as he ages.

Noelvi Marte, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 399 PA, 11 HR, 18 SB, .279/.358/.454

There are no questions about Marte’s exit velocities. They’re among the best in the game. Alas, a ball smashed into the ground is still a ground ball. He’s running a predictably high BABIP as the result of his worm murdering. He’s not producing any power numbers despite hitting the ball powerfully. We have every reason to anticipate growth from Marte in the coming years. What we’re seeing now is a fantastic platform for a quality Major Leaguer. At present, he’s roughly a replacement-level performer. He’s batting .293/.350/.380 (96 wRC+) in 100 plate appearances. If he can learn to generate any lift whatsoever, he’ll quickly morph into a dangerous hitter.

Three More

Orion Kerkering, PHI (22): Arguably the top pure relief prospect in the minors (excluding those being developed as starters), Kerkering features triple-digit gas. He lives off a filth-monster slider. After starting the season in Low-A, the right-hander made his big league debut on Sunday. He seems destined for high-leverage postseason innings.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Since he has expended his rookie eligibility, this will be Encarnacion-Strand’s last appearance in this column. After an unimpressive August, CES has caught fire in September. Over the last 20 days, he’s batting .378/.429/.778 with six home runs in 49 plate appearances. Volatility will likely always be a part of his game.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC (21): Crow-Armstrong drew a trio of starts shortly after his promotion. He looked overmatched and has since been reduced to a pinch runner/defensive replacement role. I fully expect PCA to fill this same role in the postseason – assuming the Cubs hang onto a Wild Card slot.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Kyle Hendricks’s Return To Form

By Nick Deeds | September 23, 2023 at 9:40pm CDT

When thinking about bounceback seasons on the 2023 Chicago Cubs, you’d be forgiven for seeing the excellent season Cody Bellinger is putting together giving it your full attention. After all, the former NL MVP was one of the worst regulars in baseball over the past two seasons and has bounced back to not only be an above-average regular but the best hitter set to hit the free agent market this side of Shohei Ohtani. If you look a little further down the club’s WAR leaderboard, however, you’ll find there’s another player on the team who received award voting recognition early in his career for whom things seemingly started to come apart at the seams over the past two seasons, only for him to rebound in a big way in 2023 with a unexpectedly strong season. That player is right-handed veteran Kyle Hendricks.

The lone remaining player of Chicago’s 2016 World Series core, Hendricks was once one of the best starters in the majors in terms of sheer run prevention. Between the years of 2016 and 2020, only five pitchers with at least 500 innings of work posted a lower ERA than Hendricks: Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Corey Kluber. Unlike the five multi-time Cy Young winners ahead of him, Hendricks has never been looked at as on the shortlist of the best pitchers in the league. While Hendricks finished third in Cy Young award voting in 2016 behind Scherzer and teammate Jon Lester, he’s only received votes one other time in his career and has never made an All Star game.

The main culprit for that is his lack of strikeouts. Even during his 2016-20 peak he ranked among the league’s bottom 20 hurlers in terms of strikeout rate, and his fastball hasn’t average 90 mph since his sophomore season as a big league regular back in 2016. Hendricks made up for that during his peak years with pinpoint control (5.3% walk rate), a strong 46.6% groundball rate, and a penchant for suppressing the long ball (11.5% HR/FB). Still, those positive traits couldn’t completely outweigh his lack of strikeouts and left him with a 3.60 FIP that, while strong, was more in the realm of Yu Darvish and Blake Snell than Kershaw and deGrom.

Unfortunately for Hendricks, his dominance in terms of run prevention wouldn’t last. The 2021 and 2022 seasons proved to be brutal ones for Hendricks, as he not only was a below average starting pitcher for the first time in his career but dealt with a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder during 2022 that left him shut down partway through the year. Across his 265 1/3 innings of work those two seasons, the results were nothing short of ugly: his 4.78 ERA with a 4.87 FIP in that time were 16% and 18% worse than the league average, respectively. Meanwhile, his peripheral numbers declined across the board his strikeout rate dipped from the 21.1% of his peak years to just 17.3%, his walk rate climbed to 6%, his groundball rate dropped to 41%, and he began to allow home runs on 14.8% of his fly balls.

Heading into the 2023 season, it was fair to wonder if the tightrope act of Hendricks’s early career, where he managed to get elite results despite a fastball that would’ve been slower than average 20 years ago thanks to excellent command and quality of contact numbers, was over. After all, he was pairing a bottom ten strikeout rate in the majors with a 8.8% barrel rate that was lower than only 26 other players with at least 200 innings of work between those years, figures that put him in the same conversation as Zach Plesac and Dallas Keuchel. Chicago’s $14.5MM decision on Hendricks’s $16MM club option for 2024 figured to be declined without as much as a second thought.

Ever since making his season debut in May, however, Hendricks appears to have climbed right back up on the tightrope. The now 33-year-old righty has posted a 3.66 ERA that’s 24% better than league average with a 3.80 FIP across 23 starts (132 2/3 innings of work) this season. Those top level numbers put him in the same conversation as quality mid-rotation arms like Charlie Morton, Jesus Luzardo, Freddy Peralta and Eduardo Rodriguez. A look at his peripheral numbers mostly backs up the veteran’s return to form, as well: his 4.3% walk rate this season is the best of his career in a 162-game season, and his 45.2% groundball rate is a top-25 figure in the majors that appears in the same conversation as players like Ohtani and Corbin Burnes.

That said, there are still some potential red flags. Most obviously, Hendricks is striking out less batters than ever before this year, even by his own standards. His strikeout rate is ninth-worst among pitchers with at least 130 innings this year, and no other pitcher in the bottom ten is above average by both ERA- and FIP-. Meanwhile, his 8.7% HR/FB rate is the lowest of his career, indicating that some regression should be expected in that regard. His barrel rate has dropped from the 8.8% figure he posted the last two years, which is a positive sign, but 6.4% figure is still a far cry from the 4.3% he posted in his prime.

Between Hendricks’s quality mid-rotation production in 2023, his track record as something of a unicorn in the modern game, and these potential red flags when digging into his profile, that aforementioned $14.5MM decision the Cubs face on his 2024 option figures to be one of the more interesting decisions a club will be faced with this offseason. Should his option be declined, the veteran righty figures to add another intriguing arm to what’s already an unusually deep free agent class when it comes to starting pitching. Regardless of what the future holds for Hendricks, though, his rebound has been one of the biggest surprises for a Cubs team that has surpassed expectations across the board this season.

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