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Poll: Who Will Win The AL Central?

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The Guardians rode a late surge in 2022 to a runaway division title in the American League Central, trouncing the second-place White Sox and third-place Twins by 11 and 14 games, respectively. It was a testament both to the development of several key young players in Cleveland as well as some staggering injury woes both in Chicago and Minnesota. Further down the division ranks, the rebuilds in Detroit and Kansas City both hit roadblocks, with the Tigers and Royals losing 96 and 97 games, respectively.

There was plenty of offseason activity throughout the division, however, and we can expect to see several touted prospects make their debuts in 2023 as well. Will that change the outlook? Let’s take a quick look at each team heading into the season.

Cleveland Guardians (92-70 in 2022)

The Guardians hit the second-fewest home runs of any team in baseball last season but nonetheless ranked 15th in runs scored, offsetting their lack of power with far and away the lowest team strikeout rate in baseball (18.2%). The pitching staff posted a collective 3.47 ERA, ranking sixth in the Majors, and while they were only 12th in strikeout rate (23.2%), they also had the game’s fifth-best walk rate (7.3%). Cleveland also dominated in one other key area: health. Guardians players spent the fewest cumulative days on the injured list of any team in the Majors at just 709, per Spotrac. The second-lowest team, the Orioles, clocked in at 790. Cleveland had less than one-third of the IL days of MLB’s two worst teams in that regard: the Reds (2,638) and the Twins (2,363).

Over the winter, Cleveland signed Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, adding some thump to the lineup. Zunino, in particular is an all-or-nothing hitter at the plate, but Guardians catchers in 2022 were the least-productive in the American League, so he should be an upgrade over last year’s backstops. Top prospects like catcher Bo Naylor, outfielder George Valera and infielder Brayan Rocchio are among the many hitters on the cusp of the Majors and should all be key reinforcements as Cleveland defends its crown.

Chicago White Sox (81-81 in 2022)

The White Sox were tanked by key injuries in 2022, with each of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Lance Lynn, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Michael Kopech, Aaron Bummer and Garrett Crochet spending at least a month on the shelf. The Sox ranked in the bottom third of the league in homers, the bottom half in runs scored and were also a middle-of-the-pack club in terms of rotation and bullpen ERA. Defensively, they were a mess, thanks in no small part to the outfield alignment. The Sox ranked 23rd in the Majors in Outs Above Average (-16), 27th in Defensive Runs Saved (-35) and dead last in Ultimate Zone Rating (-42.2).

The decision to let Jose Abreu walk in free agency was surely a blow to the clubhouse and lineup alike, but it’ll also allow Andrew Vaughn to slide from right field to his natural position, first base. Jimenez can spend significant time at DH, too, now that Andrew Benintendi has been signed to play left field. The Sox didn’t do much to address right field, where Gavin Sheets will try to fend off top prospect Oscar Colas, who should debut early in the season. They’ll hope that Mike Clevinger can replace the resurgent Johnny Cueto in the rotation, and Elvis Andrus is back to handle second base. All of baseball is pulling for closer Liam Hendriks as he battles cancer, and while his health takes priority above all else, there’s no getting around the fact that his absence hurts the relief corps as the Sox look for better results in 2023.

Minnesota Twins (78-84 in 2022)

The Twins were the opposite of the Guardians in terms of player health in 2022, and they’ll hope more than anything that their roster can remain on the field more in 2023. Even with all their health woes, the Twins still ranked in the top half of MLB in home runs and placed 16th in runs scored. Their rotation’s 4.11 ERA was 19th in MLB, while the bullpen’s ERA sat right at MLB’s midpoint.

Minnesota was the most active team in the division this offseason, improbably retaining Carlos Correa after an unprecedented free-agent saga saw deals with the Giants and Mets fall through. The Twins also traded star infielder Luis Arraez to land righty Pablo Lopez and a pair of prospects from the Marlins, giving them the deepest rotation they’ve had in some time — health permitting. Lopez, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, a returning Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober is a strong sextet around which to build the staff. Meanwhile, the Twins keyed in on defense, depth and defensive versatility with their other acquisitions. Catcher Christian Vazquez and outfielders Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor are all standouts with the glove (to say nothing of Gallo’s obvious power potential). Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano can play all over the infield (and, in Farmer’s place, even behind the plate in a pinch).

The bullpen was left as is, with the Twins believing deadline pickup Jorge Lopez, sophomore Jovani Moran (who excelled late in the season) and a returning Jorge Alcala can provide the necessary boost alongside breakout star Jhoan Duran. Oft-injured top prospect Royce Lewis should return this summer, and the Twins could also get late looks at infielders like Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee.

Detroit Tigers (66-96 in 2022)

The Tigers’ 2021-22 offseason was headlined by acquisitions of Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, but by the end of the regular season those headlines shifted to a front office shuffle. The Tigers’ poor results led ownership to oust GM Al Avila and hire Giants GM Scott Harris as the new president of baseball operations. The 2022 Tigers saw key injuries to the entire core of their promising young rotation, with Casey Mize having Tommy John surgery, Tarik Skubal requiring flexor surgery and Matt Manning missing substantial time due to shoulder troubles. Center fielder Riley Greene and first baseman Spencer Torkelson didn’t develop as hoped in their rookie seasons. Baez and Rodriguez, meanwhile, didn’t live up to their respective contracts.

In Harris’ first offseason on the job, he traded relievers Gregory Soto and Joe Jimenez to add some near-MLB talent, including outfielder Matt Vierling, infielder Nick Maton and catcher Donny Sands. Free agents Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen were signed to help solidify a rotation that’ll also get righty Spencer Turnbull back after he missed the 2022 season recovering from 2021 Tommy John surgery. It was the type of modest offseason that’s generally expected for a newly hired baseball operations leader as they take time to get a feel for the organization before making more sweeping changes. Prospect-wise, pitcher Wilmer Flores and third baseman/outfielder Justyn-Henry Malloy are among the names who could potentially make their debuts this season.

Kansas City Royals (65-97 in 2022)

The Royals had their own front office shakeup, as president of baseball ops Dayton Moore was dismissed after more than 15 years atop the front office. He was replaced by his own longtime top lieutenant J.J. Picollo. That decision came on the heels of a 2022 season in which the Royals, who’ve been focusing their rebuild on drafting and developing college pitchers, posted the fourth-worst rotation ERA in MLB (4.76). Right-hander Brady Singer had a breakout season, but none of Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar or Kris Bubic has found much success in the big leagues, and recent No. 4 overall pick Asa Lacy hasn’t progressed in the minors.

Given the manner in which the pitching stalled out, the Royals added veterans Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough while also re-signing Zack Greinke. That’ll raise the floor of the rotation while perhaps still allowing for some of Lynch, Kowar, Bubic, Jonathan Heasley or Carlos Hernandez to force their way into the picture. In the lineup, they’ll hope for further steps forward from a promising core of hitters including Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez. Youngsters like second baseman Michael Massey, outfielder Drew Waters and infielder/outfielder Nate Eaton should all get prominent looks in 2023 as well.

—

Projection systems are inherently divisive, so take this for what it’s worth, but FanGraphs gives the Guardians a slight edge on the Twins in 2023, with the White Sox in third place, followed by the Royals and the Tigers. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, meanwhile, projects the Twins ever so slightly ahead of Cleveland, followed by Chicago in third place, Detroit in fourth and Kansas City in fifth.

Who do you think will win the AL Central?

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals focused mostly on adding veteran pitching, while clearing some space on the position-player side for new younger talents to get a larger big-league opportunity.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $23.75MM
Total spending: $32.25MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Heading into J.J. Picollo’s first winter as Kansas City’s general manager, the executive was pretty forthright about the team’s plans.  With an eye towards sticking to roughly the same $88MM payroll as last season, the Royals intended to add one or two veteran hitters (one of them a right-handed bat if possible), at least two starting pitchers, and some additional bullpen and rotation depth.

On the pitching end of that wishlist, it was mission accomplished.  All of the Royals’ guaranteed spending went towards the mound, as the club bolstered the rotation with free agents Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough, while also bringing back a franchise icon in Zack Greinke.  On the relief end, the Royals brought in one of the most accomplished closers of recent years by signing Aroldis Chapman for a late-game role, if not necessarily as the team’s next ninth-inning man.

Of course, there was a reason why Chapman was available for a modest one-year, $3.75MM deal.  Chapman is now entering his age-35 season, and his effectiveness has diminished over the last two seasons as his walk rates have skyrocketed.  While the southpaw’s control has long been inconsistent, Chapman’s 11.5% walk rate over his first 11 MLB seasons was substantially lower than the 16.4% walk rate he has posted in 2021-22.  His once-elite fastball has lost effectiveness and some velocity (down to “only” 97.7 mph in 2022), and batters also made far more hard contact against Chapman’s pitches in 2022 than at any other point in the 2015-22 Statcast era.

If that wasn’t enough, Chapman also spent close to nine weeks on the injured list last season due to an Achilles injury and an infection related to a recently-added tattoo.  After Chapman skipped a team workout prior to the start of the Yankees’ ALDS matchup with the Guardians, the writing was pretty clearly on the wall that his time in New York was through.

Ideally for the Royals, Chapman would regain his old form in a new environment, and help incumbent closer Scott Barlow solidify late-game leads (and perhaps even grab a few saves ahead of Barlow in certain situations).  That scenario would make Chapman an interesting trade chip heading into the deadline, assuming that K.C. isn’t in contention by midseason.

That short-term-asset mindset could apply to some of Kansas City’s other winter acquisitions, possibly any of their minor league signings who rebuild their value at the MLB level.  Greinke could potentially be flipped to a contender, but probably only if he approves such a move, assuming the Royals take the same approach with Greinke as they did prior to last year’s trade deadline.  While it wouldn’t be shocking if either Lyles or Yarbrough were also dealt for the right offer, the Royals at least obtained some extra control with those signings, since Yarbrough is arbitration-controlled through the 2024 season and Lyles was inked to a two-year guarantee.

In an era of pitching specialization, Lyles is a bit of a throwback as a classic innings-eater, tossing 359 frames with the Rangers and Orioles in 2021-22.  Between durability and an increasingly solid walk rate, Lyles brings some pluses to the K.C. rotation, and Lyles’ numbers over his career have unsurprisingly been generally better when he has played in more pitcher-friendly venues (which bodes well for a move to Kauffman Stadium).  With low strikeout totals and an unspectacular 4.76 ERA since the start of the 2019 season, Lyles isn’t a frontline starter, but the Royals are only asking for him to hold the fort.

Over five seasons with the Rays, Yarbrough was a more of a modern take on the “innings eater” model, working as both a bulk pitcher (behind an opener) and as a traditional starter.  New Royals manager Matt Quatraro is very familiar with Yarbrough from his past role as Tampa Bay’s bench coach, and he’ll now try to get the left-hander on track after Yarbrough posted a 4.90 ERA over 235 innings since the start of the 2021 season.  Despite elite soft-contact rates and solid-to-excellent walk rates, Yarbrough’s lack of strikeout ability and lack of velocity has started to catch up with him, and batters are teeing off on his once-solid cutter/changeup combination.

Yarbrough is ticketed to begin the season as a starter, but Greinke, Lyles, and Brady Singer are the only locks for a full-time rotation job.  Between Yarbrough’s ability to work as a reliever and the fact that Brad Keller lost his starting spot last year, the Royals have some flexibility in deciding what they want to do with the last two rotation slots.  With injuries, performance, or perhaps trades factoring into the Royals’ decision-making process, former top draft picks like Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, or Jackson Kowar could get some starts as the season develops.

These highly-touted young arms have yet to show much at the MLB level, which explains why Kansas City has had to target veteran fill-ins for the rotation.  To that end, the hirings of Brian Sweeney as pitching coach, Mitch Stetter as bullpen coach, and Zach Bove as an assistant pitching coach and director of Major League pitching strategy are perhaps more important than any roster move, since Picollo is overhauling the Royals’ approach in developing and managing pitchers.  It certainly seems as if K.C. will be putting a new focus on analytics, and Quatraro (Tampa Bay) and Sweeney (Cleveland) are both coming from teams with a strong track record of getting the most out of their pitchers.

If the fixes can take hold quickly, the Royals might see some significant improvement from their pitching side, which would be a huge step forward in their plans to finally break out of rebuild mode.  Naturally the club would also love to see development from its core of position players, and yet while the situation around the diamond didn’t need quite as much immediate help as the rotation, the Royals certainly put a lot more emphasis on adding pitching than hitting this winter.

Finances could’ve been a factor, given the rising prices for pitching throughout the sport.  The market allowed for Lyles to land a two-year deal, and for Greinke to land at least $8.5MM on a one-year contract, though Greinke’s deal has plenty of easily-reachable innings incentives that could boost the value to as much as $16MM.  This contract represented something of a middle ground between the $13MM guaranteed Greinke received last season, and the Royals’ desire for a more incentive-heavy deal with the 39-year-old this time around.

Without much leverage to boost the payroll, the Royals’ desire to upgrade the lineup didn’t really materialize, as the team is hoping to strike paydirt on at least one of its minor league signings.  Such veterans as Franmil Reyes, Jackie Bradley Jr., Matt Duffy, Jorge Bonifacio, Matt Beaty, and Johan Camargo are in camp as non-roster invitees, and Reyes probably represents the best chance for Kansas City to land that desired right-handed hitting upgrade.

The Royals saw plenty of Reyes during his time in Cleveland over the last four seasons, and it certainly looked as if Reyes had broken out as a fearsome power bat following a 37-homer season in 2021.  However, Reyes’ production completely cratered in 2022, to the point that the Guardians (a team themselves in sore need of power) designated him for assignment in August.

Reyes’ numbers only slightly improved after joining the Cubs on a waiver claim, and the 27-year-old now returns to the AL Central looking for a bounce-back season.  Kauffman Stadium isn’t exactly the ideal setting for a power-only player to rebound, yet since the Royals finished 26th of 30 teams in home runs in 2022, they’ll take whatever slugging potential they can get from Reyes as a DH and occasional outfielder.

The other minor league signings give K.C. some veteran depth behind their plan to let the kids play in 2023.  Duffy, Beaty, and Camargo will support the projected infield plan of Bobby Witt Jr. at shortstop, Vinnie Pasquantino at first base, one of Michael Massey or Nicky Lopez at second base with the other in a backup role, and Hunter Dozier likely to get most of the third base work.  There’s some fluidity in this plan, as Dozier can play other positions and (more pointedly) hasn’t hit much in any of his last three seasons, so Nate Eaton or Maikel Garcia could eat into the playing time at the hot corner.

While non-roster players are a part of every team’s Spring Training, the Royals have a particular need after moving some position players over the offseason.  In keeping the payroll stable, spending a bit extra to sign pitching meant that some salary had to be cut elsewhere, which certainly factored into the club’s decisions to trade Michael A. Taylor (owed $4.5MM in 2023) to the Twins, Adalberto Mondesi ($3.045MM) to the Red Sox, and Ryan O’Hearn ($1.4MM) to the Orioles.

None of the three deals were a real surprise, since Taylor’s name had been floated in trade talks since last year’s deadline, and it was perhaps unexpected that Kansas City even tendered O’Hearn a contract.  Mondesi was once one of baseball’s elite prospects, yet as the years went by and Mondesi was sidelined by one injury after another, the Royals were ready to move on.

Josh Taylor (coming to K.C. in the Mondesi trade) is no stranger to the injured list himself, having missed all of 2022 due to back problems.  But, the left-hander also brings a live fastball, lots of strikeouts, and three years of team control to Kansas City’s bullpen, so Taylor might be a very nice addition if he can stay healthy.

Pasquantino and Nick Pratto had already reduced O’Hearn’s role as a first baseman, and Taylor became expendable since the Royals have Drew Waters as their projected new center fielder.  That plan is on hold for the moment, however, since an oblique strain will likely keep Waters on the injured list for the start of the season.  Waters’ injury opened the door for the Royals to sign Bradley as center field depth, with Kyle Isbel as the first option up the middle while Waters recovers.

With a few weeks to go before Opening Day, K.C. might not be done making lower-level moves, or maybe even more significant trades involving in-house veterans.  For instance, Lopez drew some attention from the White Sox in January, though that particular avenue might be closed since the Sox have since signed Elvis Andus to fill their need for second base help.  If the Royals are confident in Massey as the starting second baseman and feel that the likes of Garcia or Duffy can provide middle infield backup, Lopez might still get shopped — the Dodgers stand out as an obvious possibility, since Gavin Lux will miss the season after tearing his ACL.

Picollo openly said that the Royals weren’t going to be too aggressive with their spending or roster-building during the winter, since the club first needs needs to figure out what they have in so many players who are lacking in proven MLB production, or even playing time at the sport’s highest level.  Perhaps the most interesting development would be if the Royals were able to negotiate contract extensions with any of their more clear building blocks, like Witt or Singer.

How would you grade the Royals’ offseason? (Link to poll)

Royals Sign Jorge Bonifacio To Minors Deal

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The Royals signed outfielder Jorge Bonifacio to a minor league contract last week, MLB.com’s Anne Rogers reports (Twitter link).  Bonifacio has already started to appear in Spring Training games, but the signing flew under the radar.

The 29-year-old Bonifacio last appeared in the majors in 2021, playing in seven games with the Phillies.  2022 marked the first time since the 2016 season that Bonifacio didn’t appear in a big league game, as he spent the entire year with Philadelphia’s Triple-A affiliate in Lehigh Valley, hitting .240/.336/.407 with 15 home runs over 444 plate appearances.

Bonifacio will now return to his original organization, as he first signed with the Royals as an international free agent back in 2009.  He made his MLB debut with Kansas City in 2017 and hit .247/.319/.408 with 21 homers over 713 PA during the 2017-19 seasons, but that stint was marred by an 80-game PED suspension during the 2018 campaign.  Bonifacio didn’t hit much after returning from the suspension, and the Royals ultimately released him after the 2019 season.

At the negligible cost of a minor league deal, the Royals can take another look at a familiar face, and Bonifacio’s signing continues a trend for K.C. this offseason.  The Royals spent their free-agent dollars to upgrade their pitching staff (re-signing Zack Greinke and signing Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough), but didn’t do much around the diamond, other than deal such former regulars as Michael A. Taylor, Adalberto Mondesi, and Ryan O’Hearn.  The club is counting on those gaps being filled primarily by in-house younger players, and Bonifacio now joins a lengthy list of MLB veterans in Kansas City’s camp as non-roster invitees.

Lorenzo Cain To Officially Retire As A Royal This Summer

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Outfielder Lorenzo Cain was released by the Brewers in June of last year and didn’t sign with another team. He tells Andy McCullough of The Athletic that he got some interest from other clubs but ultimately decided to call it a career. He will return to Kauffman Stadium at some point during the upcoming season to officially retire as a Royal, though the timing and logistics of that are still being worked out.

Cain was certainly struggling last year, as he had a batting line of .179/.231/.234 at the time he was cut loose by the Brewers. But his defensive grades were still good and he had been roughly average at the plate the year before. It seems a few teams thought he still had something left in the tank. Cain says the Dodgers were in touch, as were players on the Phillies and Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals. However, Cain decided to defer to his three young boys.

“I left it in the hands of my boys,” Cain said to McCullough. “I said, ‘Hey, do you guys want Daddy to continue to play ball? Or are you ready for Daddy to be done and go home?’ And they said, ‘Dad, we want you to go home.’ And I said, ‘OK, then.’ So I’ve been done. I just haven’t announced it, I guess.” As mentioned, the details of the upcoming ceremony are still being hashed out, but Cain says they are tentatively targeting the month of May. Once the paperwork is filed, it will officially bring to a close a career that was bookended by time with Milwaukee but had its greatest highlights in Kansas City.

The Brewers selected Cain in the 17th round of the 2004 draft. He worked his way up through the minors and cracked the big leagues in 2010, getting into 43 games that year. Prior to the 2011 campaign, the rebuilding Royals sent Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt to the Brewers in exchange for Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress, Jake Odorizzi and Cain.

Lorenzo Cain | Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY SportsHis first year with his new club was primarily spent in the minors and then Cain was hurt for much of 2012. In 2013, he started to show signs of becoming a viable major leaguer, as he got into 115 games, stole 14 bases and provided excellent defense. He took another step forward in 2014, hitting .301 on the year and swiping 28 bags. He helped the club to the World Series that year, winning ALCS MVP along the way.

The Royals lost that World Series but were back the next year, thanks in no small part to Cain. He hit 16 home runs in 2015, effectively doubling his career tally at that time, as he had just 17 coming into the year. He also stole another 28 bases, continued to be great in the field and hit .307. He made the All-Star game that year, the first of two selections for him, and the Royals eventually emerged victorious in that year’s World Series.

Cain would play another couple of seasons in Kansas City before reaching free agency. He returned to the Brewers on a five-year, $80MM deal going into 2018. He continued to be an excellent player in the first few years of that contract, providing his typical blend of speed and defense, along with a few home runs. He was selected to the All-Star game again in 2018 and won a Gold Glove award in 2019.

Cain played five games in 2020 before deciding to opt out due to the pandemic. He was then hampered by injuries in 2021, getting into just 78 games. He struggled out of the gate in 2022 and was ultimately let go by the Brewers. As mentioned up top, Cain seemed to have some chances to continue his playing career but ultimately decided to be with his family instead.

Cain goes into the history books with 1,220 hits, including 225 doubles, 24 triples and 87 home runs. He scored 626 runs, drove 454 of them in and stole 190 bases. He was a two-time All-Star, a Gold Glove winner and a World Series champion. We at MLB Trade Rumors salute him on a fine career and wish him all the best in retirement.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Injury Notes: Peterson, Yarbrough, Garcia,

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Mets starter David Peterson will get an x-ray on his left foot after being struck by a ball there, manager Buck Showalter told reporters (including Tim Healey of Newsday). Peterson tossed two innings in the Mets 15-4 win over Miami today.

Peterson isn’t expected to crack New York’s opening day rotation, although there’s a good chance he’d be one of the first options they called on in the event of an injury to any of the other starters. We’re obviously short on detail until the results of Peterson’s x-ray come back, but any serious injury would be a blow to the Mets’ pitching depth. Peterson worked to a 3.83 ERA over 105 2/3 innings for the Mets last year, combining a 27.8% strikeout rate with a 10.6% walk rate. The 27-year-old does have minor league options remaining, so he could either operate as a starter at Triple-A or out of New York’s bullpen. The Mets do have solid pitching depth behind their projected rotation of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Kodai Senga, Carlos Carrasco and Jose Quintana, with Peterson, Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi all shaping up as solid depth options. [UPDATE May 5: Peterson’s x-rays were inconclusive, and he will now get a CT scan, Showalter told Healey and other reporters.]

Here’s a couple of other injury notes from around the game:

  • Royals starter Ryan Yarbrough is dealing with a “slight groin strain” that doesn’t appear to be too serious, according to Anne Rogers of MLB.com. Yarbrough is scheduled to throw a bullpen session tomorrow to see how he feels. Yarbrough tossed 80 innings of 4.50 ERA ball for the Rays last year across nine starts and 11 relief appearances. Tampa Bay designated Yarbrough for assignment and then non-tendered him this winter, and he latched on with the Royals on a one-year, $3MM deal. The leftie owns a career 4.33 ERA over five seasons in the bigs, all for the Rays.
  • Pirates left-hander Jarlin Garcia left today’s 4-3 loss to the Phillies with what the team describes as left arm tightness, Justice delos Santos of MLB.com relays. Garcia gave up four earned runs on a walk and four hits in 1/3 of an inning of work. Unsurprisingly, the language used to describe the injury is very vague, and the outcome could range from a serious injury to nothing at all, and we should know more once the Pirates have evaluated him. Garcia joined the Pirates on a one-year, $2.5MM deal this winter. He’d been a successful member of the Giants bullpen for the past few seasons, working to a 2.84 ERA over 152 innings of work between 2020-22. Like many southpaws, he worked especially well against left-handed hitters, restricting them to a .192/.245/.364 line in 2022, against a .275/.327/.450 line against right-handed hitters. Rule 5 pick Jose Hernandez is the only other left-handed reliever currently projected to be on the Pirates active roster to start the year, although the team does have a number of non-roster invitees, including Caleb Smith, Daniel Zamora and Rob Zastryzny, who could come into the picture should Garcia’s tightness turn into anything that puts him in doubt for opening day.

Royals Sign Jackie Bradley Jr. To Minor League Deal

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The Royals announced that they have signed outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. to a minor league deal with an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Bradley, 33 next month, has spent the past decade as one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. He has career tallies of 74 Defensive Runs Saved and 58 Outs Above Average, in addition to a grade of 53.2 from Ultimate Zone Rating. All three of those totals place Bradley in the top 10 among all outfielders in the game, dating back to his 2013 debut.

His offensive contributions have been less consistent, however. He seemed to have a breakout with the Red Sox back in 2015 and 2016, hitting .262/.345/.489 over that stretch for a wRC+ of 119. But over the next three seasons, he settled in as a below-average hitter. From 2017 to 2019, he hit .234/.318/.409 for a wRC+ of 90. That was 10% below league average for that stretch but he still proved valuable given his work on the grass.

Bradley then had a well-timed spike in 2020, just as he was about to reach free agency. He slashed .283/.364/.450 that year, leading to a wRC+ of 118 and a two-year, $24MM contract with the Brewers. Unfortunately, Bradley’s offense has nosedived since the moment that deal was signed. He hit just .163/.236/.261 in 2021, 37 wRC+, and then was flipped back to Boston for 2022. The return to familiar environs didn’t help much as he continued to struggle, got released and then signed with the Blue Jays. Between the two clubs, he hit .203/.255/.311, a slight bounceback to a wRC+ of 56 but still far below league average. Despite all those struggles at the plate, JBJ can still go get in in the field. He was worth 5 DRS, 8 OAA and 6.0 UZR last year, despite making only 98 starts.

The Royals traded from their center field depth this offseason, sending Michael A. Taylor to the Twins for some minor league pitching. That seemed to open up the spot for Drew Waters to get an extended audition, but he recently suffered an oblique strain and seems poised to miss the start of the season. Manager Matt Quatraro said at the time of the Waters injury that Kyle Isbel will “get every opportunity to grab that spot,” but Bradley’s presence in camp will give the Royals a glove-first veteran fallback option.

Diego Hernandez To Miss 3-4 Months With Dislocated Shoulder

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Royals outfield prospect Diego Hernandez is set to miss the next three to four months of action after dislocating his non-throwing shoulder yesterday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.

Hernandez, 22, was added to the 40-man roster back in November ahead of this offseason’s Rule 5 draft. Hernandez signed with the Royals as an international free agent during the summer of 2017 for a $200K bonus, a figure which made up the majority of Kansas City’s pool during the 2017-18 signing period. Hernandez grades out as a quality defensive center fielder and a plus-plus runner according to prospect reports, which allowed him to steadily rise throughout the Royals’ minor league system from his debut in 2018 until his full season debut in 2021.

Across 79 games played almost entirely at the Single-A level in 2021, Hernandez struggled with the bat, slashing .263/.346/.320 in 327 plate appearances. He did manage to swipe 35 bags in 46 attempts, however, and that speed combined with his center field defense once again earned him a promotion to High-A in 2022. Hernandez appeared to unlock another gear in 2022, and began showing with the bat to the tune of a .279/.343/.418 slash line in 83 games at the High-A level.

This surge in offensive capability came largely on the back of newfound power; Hernandez swatted seven home runs, 17 doubles, and four triples in those 83 games, compared to just two home runs, 13 doubles, and four triples in his 131 career minor league games headed into the 2022 season. That power boost earned Hernandez a late season call-up to the Double-A level, where he continued to impress by hitting .298/.357/.379 in 32 games. In addition to his step forward with the bat, Hernandez retained the speed that helped him on the basepaths and in the field, swiping 40 bags in 52 attempts across both levels in the 2022 season.

This showing in 2022 surely made protecting Hernandez from the Rule 5 draft an easy decision for the Royals, and put a big league debut during the 2023 season into play as a reasonable possibility. Obviously, this injury puts that possible trajectory in doubt, as Hernandez will miss the first half of the season and have little time to prove himself big league ready in 2023. Hernandez joins fellow Royals outfielder Drew Waters in starting the season on the injured list, though the oblique injury Waters is suffering from is expected to keep him out of action for much less time than Hernandez’s shoulder woes. The Royals still have plenty of outfield depth, as Kyle Isbel, Edward Olivares, Nate Eaton, Franmil Reyes, MJ Melendez, and Hunter Dozier represent some of the options still at manager Matt Quataro’s disposal.

Read The Transcript Of Our Chat Hosted By Former MLB Catcher And Pro Scout Brian Johnson

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Brian Johnson was a 16th-round pick by the Yankees in 1989 out of Stanford University, where he’d been the football team’s quarterback and a jack-of-all-trades on a baseball club that won a pair of College World Series titles. Ironically, one of the only positions Johnson didn’t play in college was catcher, which wound up being his primary position over the course of an eight-year Major League career.

Johnson spent parts of three seasons in the Yankees’ system but wound up debuting with the Padres in the strike-shortened 1994 season, batting .247/.283/.409 and connecting on the first three of his 49 big league home runs. Johnson spent three seasons in San Diego, batting .260/.288/.392 along the way, before being traded to the Tigers in a trade that shipped left-hander Joey Eischen back to the Padres.

While his run in Detroit proved brief — 45 games before being flipped to the Giants in a one-for-one swap for fellow catcher Marcus Jensen — Johnson found himself with the Giants and closed out the year with his most productive stretch as a big leaguer. Following the trade, he raked at a .279/.333/.525 clip, swatting 11 home runs in 201 trips to the plate. He spent a second year with the Giants, hitting .237/.310/.396 in 99 games, before bouncing through one-year stints with the Reds, Royals and Dodgers.

All told, Johnson’s career drew to a close with a .248/.291/.403 batting line, 49 home runs, 60 doubles, six triples, 132 runs scored, 196 RBIs, a stolen base and a 29% caught-stealing rate behind the plate. He was part of a pair of NL West division winners: the ’96 Padres and ’97 Giants. Some of the pitchers he homered against include Al Leiter, Rick Reed (twice), Mark Portugal, Mike Remlinger and, in 2000, a rookie left-hander by the name of Johan Santana. On Sept. 18, 1997, Johnson’s clubbed a 12th-inning, walkoff homer that put the Giants into a tie for the NL West lead and is still fondly remembered by Giants faithful as “the Brian Johnson game” (YouTube link).

Following his playing days, Johnson returned to the Giants organization, where he spent 10 seasons in their pro scouting department. That included all three of San Francisco’s World Series victories in 2010, 2012 and 2014.

These days, Brian is a diversity consultant with the Chicago-based Kaleidoscope Group. We were thrilled to have him answer reader questions about his experiences on the field, in the clubhouse and as a big league scout for a trio of World Series winners. Brian graciously took two hours of his time to talk with fans, sharing memories of teaming with legends like Trevor Hoffman and Tony Gwynn, insight on what pro scouts look for when recommending trades, thoughts on the changes in the current game and his experiences and opinions on playing at the height of the steroid era. Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat!

Drew Waters Out For Six Weeks With Oblique Strain

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Royals outfielder Drew Waters will be out of action for six weeks due a left oblique strain, reports Anne Rogers of MLB.com. Given that there’s about five weeks until Opening Day, it seems as though Waters is destined to miss the start of the season.

Waters, 24, was a second round draft pick of Atlanta and was considered one of the best prospects in the game not too long ago. Baseball America had him up in the #32 slot on their top 100 list going into 2021, with reports highlighting his defense, speed, throwing arm and ability to hit from both sides of the plate. The biggest red flag on his profile, however, was a propensity for strikeouts that has carried into the upper levels of the minors as well as the big leagues.

Waters spent 2021 in Triple-A and struck out in 30.9% of his plate appearances, finishing with a .240/.329/.381 batting line and 94 wRC+. He had some similar results in the first half of 2022 before getting flipped to the Royals alongside two other minor leaguers for a Competitive Balance draft pick. The organizational switch seemed to suit Waters, as he finished the season strong. He hit .295/.399/.541 in Omaha before getting promoted to the majors in August, then hit .240/.324/.479 in the bigs for a wRC+ of 125. Those strong numbers aside, the strikeout issues still lingered. He was punched out in 28.7% of his trips to the plate with Omaha and 36.7% with the Royals.

Even though the strikeouts are still a work in progress, it seems the club believes in Waters enough to give him a lengthy audition. The trade of Michael A. Taylor to the Twins freed up center field and seemingly moved Waters to the top of the depth chart there. He’s considered a strong defender and could prove to be a useful player out there even without strong offense, similar to Taylor, though an above-average bat would obviously be ideal.

It seems that the audition will have to be delayed, at least for a short time. If the provided timeline holds, then Waters won’t miss too much of the season, but oblique injuries are often tricky and recoveries from them don’t always go exactly as planned. For as long as he’s out, the club will have to come up with a plan to cover the position. Manager Matt Quatraro says that Kyle Isbel will “get every opportunity to grab that spot,” per Rogers. Isbel has hit just .226/.281/.361 in the majors thus far but has a much stronger line of .268/.357/.447 in Triple-A over the past two years. He also has strong defensive numbers so far and could be a very useful contributor if he hits at the major league level.

With Isbel likely moving into center for a while, that will free up some playing time in the corners for others. Edward Olivares is a straightforward outfielder in the mix, while there are also many infielders who could see time on the grass, such as Nate Eaton, Hunter Dozier, Samad Taylor and Nick Pratto. There’s also catcher MJ Melendez, who has seen some time in the outfield with Salvador Perez taking the bulk of playing time behind the plate. A non-roster wild card will be Franmil Reyes, who recently signed a minor league deal with the club. He hasn’t played much outfield in recent years but the Waters injury could potentially free up some at-bats for him in the designated hitter slot.

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