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Angels Have Checked In On Arenado, Bohm, E. Suarez

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The Angels are known to be open to an everyday addition at third base, and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports they’ve at least gauged the respective asking prices for Nolan Arenado, Alec Bohm and Eugenio Suarez in talks with the Cardinals, Phillies and Diamondbacks, respectively.

The Halos are reportedly one of the at least six teams to which Arenado would approve a trade, though that’s a somewhat surprising development in and of itself. Both reporting out of St. Louis and, more recently, direct quotes from agent Joel Wolfe have suggested that the eight-time All-Star would prefer to land with a team that has a clear path to contention over the remaining three years of his contract. Said Wolfe earlier this week to a host of reporters at the Winter Meetings: “He wants a team that has the throttle down … that he believes he can jump right in and they’re going to win right now.”

While the Angels are clearly looking to better the club — they’ve added Yusei Kikuchi, Jorge Soler, Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Newman and Kyle Hendricks this winter — it’s less clear that those moves position them as a contender for the foreseeable future. The Angels’ 63-99 record was the fourth-worst in MLB last season, landing them last place in the American League West. Arenado is an Anaheim-area native, however, having been born in Newport Beach and attended high school in Lake Forest. That proximity to home could understandably hold some sway, especially when coupled with a series of win-now moves from the Angels over the past six weeks or so.

Arenado, 34 in April, is owed $74MM over the next three seasons, but the Rockies are on the hook for $10MM of that under the terms of the deal that sent him from Denver to St. Louis several years ago. His offensive contributions have fallen off over the past two seasons — .269/.320/.426, compared to .293/.358/.553 in third-place MVP season in 2022 — but the six-time Platinum Glove winner remains a premium defender with excellent contact skills. That sets something of a high floor, while the money left on his contract means the asking price for Arenado (prospect-wise) won’t be exorbitant unless the Cardinals pay down a notable portion of the deal.

With Bohm, the asking price has appeared higher, at least in the Phillies’ early asks. They reportedly asked the Mariners about right-handers Logan Gilbert and George Kirby in early talks regarding the longtime Philadelphia third baseman — an outlandish ask even coming off a solid season for Bohm. (That said, it stands to reason the Phillies would aim high early in any trade talks.)

Bohm, 28, hit .280/.332/.448 this past season, but the overwhelming majority of his production came in an outrageous April wherein he slashed .366/.438/.598. From May 1 onward, Bohm hit just .258/.303/.410 — slightly below league-average production. He’s long had negative defensive grades at third base but made strides in 2024 according to both Defensive Runs Saved (0) and Outs Above Average (4). Whether that’s sustainable will be a question interested clubs weigh carefully. Bohm is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.1MM in 2025 and is controllable through the 2026 season.

It’s not entirely clear that Suarez is available — Arenado and Bohm very much are — but the D-backs are a medium-payroll club with inhouse options to step up in the event that a deal comes together. Top prospect Jordan Lawlar is all but MLB-ready, and young Blaze Alexander could take some reps at the hot corner alongside shortstop Geraldo Perdomo if the Snakes opt to give Lawlar a bit more seasoning in Triple-A.

At one point this season, Suarez even briefly looked to be losing the grip on his starting third base job to Alexander. Suarez caught fire shortly thereafter, however, and not only regained his form but was one of the game’s best hitters in the season’s final three months: .312/.357/.617, 24 home runs in his final 325 plate appearances from July 1 onward. That prompted the D-backs to exercise a $15MM club option. Suarez is a free agent following the season, though, and it’s feasible that the Diamondbacks could move him for some minor league talent, go with Alexander/Lawlar at third base in 2025, and reallocate Suarez’s salary to needs at first base, in the bullpen and on the bench. That’s speculative, but the fact that the Angels have at least checked in suggests the Diamondbacks didn’t expressly turn them away.

It seems clear that GM Perry Minasian is seeking upgrades at the hot corner, even with Anthony Rendon signed for another two seasons. Any of the three players listed here would fit the bill, given what the Halos received at third base last year (combined .217/.290/.311 batting line). That’s also true of Alex Bregman and Gleyber Torres — another reported target of the Angels — but Fletcher adds that Bregman and perhaps even Torres might be out of the Angels’ price range at this point. That Torres might be too spendy doesn’t bode well for an Arenado acquisition (again, barring financial help from the Cards), but Bohm and Suarez seem feasible.

Cardinals Granted Fourth Option On Zack Thompson

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The Cardinals will get some extra roster flexibility. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reported yesterday (on X) that St. Louis was granted a fourth option on left-hander Zack Thompson.

After a player is added to the 40-man roster, they can typically be assigned to the minors in three seasons. If a player who is on the 40-man spends at least 20 days in the minors during a season, that subtracts one of those years. In certain circumstances, teams are allowed to option a player for a fourth season.

A player is eligible for a fourth option if they exhaust their three option years before they’ve played five professional seasons. MLB defines a professional season as one in which a player spent at least 90 days on an MLB or minor league active roster. Many players will spend a few years with a minor league affiliate before they’re added to a 40-man roster. As those count as professional seasons but are not option years, most players reach five seasons prior to running out of options.

Thompson was St. Louis’ first-round pick in 2019. The Cardinals assigned him to their rookie ball affiliate that year. That league didn’t have a 90-day schedule, so that did not count as a professional season. The following minor league season was canceled by the pandemic. As a result, the southpaw didn’t accrue a full professional season until 2021. The Cardinals put him on the 40-man roster the following year. Thompson was optioned in each of the last three years but falls shy of five professional seasons.

The 27-year-old Thompson has yet to find much MLB success. He owns a 4.50 earned run average across 52 appearances. After turning in a 2.08 ERA as a rookie, he allowed 4.48 earned runs per nine in ’23. Thompson only made five MLB appearances this past season. He was rocked for 18 runs in 17 innings.

That would’ve made it difficult for the Cards to justify carrying him in the Opening Day bullpen. There’s a solid chance Thompson would’ve landed on waivers if were out of options. Instead, the Cardinals can send him back to Triple-A Memphis for one more year. He started 20 of 21 appearances there this year, posting a 4.90 ERA while striking out 27.4% of opponents over 90 innings.

2024 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2024 Rule 5 draft took place this afternoon at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. The results of the draft are below.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Though the amateur (Rule 4) draft now has a lottery to determine the selection order, the Rule 5 draft still goes the old-fashioned way of reverse order of standings from the season that just ended. Clubs need to have an open 40-man roster spot in order to make a pick but aren’t obligated to make a selection on their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2025 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors.

Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs. The A’s took Mitch Spence from the Yankees with the top pick and kept him all year. Justin Slaten was plucked from the Rangers by the Mets and then traded to the Red Sox. Players like Anthony Santander and Ryan Pressly have been notable picks in other recent years while guys like George Bell and Roberto Clemente are found deeper in the history books.

Here are this year’s picks…

  1. White Sox: RHP Shane Smith (Brewers) (Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline relayed the pick on Bluesky prior to the draft)
  2. Rockies: pass
  3. Marlins: C Liam Hicks (Tigers)
  4. Angels: LHP Garrett McDaniels (Dodgers)
  5. Athletics: RHP Noah Murdock (Royals)
  6. Nationals: RHP Evan Reifert (Rays)
  7. Blue Jays: RHP Angel Bastardo (Red Sox)
  8. Pirates: pass
  9. Reds: 2B Cooper Bowman (Athletics)
  10. Rangers: pass
  11. Giants: pass
  12. Rays: LHP Nate Lavender (Mets)
  13. Red Sox: pass
  14. Twins: RHP Eiberson Castellano (Phillies)
  15. Cardinals: pass
  16. Cubs: 3B Gage Workman (Tigers)
  17. Mariners: pass
  18. Royals: pass
  19. Tigers: pass
  20. Astros: pass
  21. Mets: pass
  22. D-backs: pass
  23. Braves: RHP Anderson Pilar (Marlins)
  24. Orioles: pass
  25. Guardians: pass
  26. Padres: RHP Juan Nunez (Orioles)
  27. Brewers: LHP Connor Thomas (Cardinals)
  28. Yankees: pass
  29. Phillies: RHP Mike Vasil (Mets); Phillies later traded Vasil to Rays for cash considerations, per announcements from both clubs.
  30. Dodgers: pass

Second round (all but one club passed)

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. Right-hander Hobie Harris, who pitched for the Nationals in 2023 and signed a minor league deal with the Mets last month, was taken by the Red Sox.

Nolan Arenado Willing To Approve Trades To Six Teams

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As Nolan Arenado’s trade market continues to percolate, the no-trade clause in the third baseman’s contract puts Arenado and his camp in the driver’s seat when it comes to determining whether or not he’ll leave the Cardinals.  MLB.com’s John Denton reports that Arenado would okay a deal to any of the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, or Red Sox.  It isn’t known if these are the only six clubs on what Denton describes as Arenado’s “wish list,” or if Arenado could be amenable to deals to any other clubs in the right circumstances.

Agent Joel Wolfe discussed his client’s situation with reporters (including Denton, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) today at the Winter Meetings, and implied that Arenado’s list of potential teams is “bigger than you would think.”  The chief factor in Arenado’s decision-making is finding “a team that he thinks is going to win now and consistently for the remainder of his career.  He wants a team that has the throttle down….that he believes he can jump right in and they’re going to win right now.”

This all being said, Wolfe noted that Arenado is “not going to go just to go,” or “approve and move his family and go play somewhere that would…sidestepping” into a situation no better than his current spot in St. Louis.  Wolfe said he and Arenado have been in regular dialogue with Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, with Mozeliak floating some teams that have already been dismissed as “hard no’s of where he’d prefer not to go.”

Earlier reports indicated that three unknown “mid-market” clubs also had interest in Arenado’s services, so these could be some of the teams Arenado has already vetoed since the six teams on his list are bigger spenders.  The Yankees had also been linked to Arenado and Goold reports that the Cardinals were in touch with the Bronx Bombers about the third baseman.  As Jones notes, the Yankees seem like a fit on paper given their need at third base and the presence of Arenado’s good friend and old Rockies teammates DJ LeMahieu, but it remains to be seen if the Yankees are still on Arenado’s radar.

New York’s other team could also have an opening at the hot corner depending on how the Mets choose to deploy Mark Vientos, or whether or not the Mets re-sign Pete Alonso or add another big first base bat.  The Phillies likewise have an incumbent third baseman in Alec Bohm, but Bohm’s name has been mentioned in several trade rumors as one of the big-league roster pieces Philadelphia is reportedly open to moving to address other needs.

The Red Sox and Padres were more speculatively linked as suitors a few weeks ago, and Goold reports that St. Louis has already been in contact with these two clubs about Arenado.  Boston’s interest could hinge on whether or not they’d move Rafael Devers off third base, while Arenado’s own apparent willingness to leave his longtime third-base position might be related to his interest in joining the Padres (as San Diego already has a star third baseman in Manny Machado).

Wolfe addressed his client’s offer of a position change as a way to get in front of any awkward questions from a team’s end on the subject.  “The way he phrased it, ‘I’ll play first,’ sometimes [teams] don’t want to ask a player to do that,” Wolfe said.  “So he wanted to offer it and say, ‘I’m happy to play first, I can move around and play third.’ Nolan was like, ‘I’ll play shortstop, I’ll do whatever, but I’m not insulted to go play first, and I can win a Gold Glove over there, if that’s what it takes.’ ”

Since Arenado is from Southern California, it shouldn’t be ignored that the Padres, Dodgers, and Angels are all on his approval list, though Wolfe said Arenado has no geographic preference about his next destination.  It could be argued that the Angels might be on Arenado’s list solely due to location, as a team coming off nine straight losing seasons hardly seems to match Arenado’s preference for a team ready to win.

A trade to the Dodgers seems off the table, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and Katie Woo hear from sources that “a deal for Arenado is not a possibility the organization has considered.”  L.A. general manager Brandon Gomes made a point of saying Monday that Max Muncy was going to remain as the team’s regular third baseman, and a position switch wouldn’t much help Arenado find a spot amidst the crowded Dodgers infield.

It remains to be seen if any of Arenado’s preferred teams may or may not want to bring the eight-time All-Star into the fold, though even in the event of mutual interest, there’s also the matter of working out a trade that is also acceptable to the Cardinals.  Other complications include Arenado’s age (he turns 34 in April), his declining power over the last two seasons, and the $74MM ($10MM covered by the Rockies) in salary owed over the remaining three years of his contract.

Nationals Win Draft Lottery

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Major League Baseball conducted its third annual draft lottery this afternoon at the Winter Meetings. The Nationals won the lottery and will pick first overall. They’ll be followed by the Angels and Mariners. Washington had just above a 10% chance of securing the top pick, the fourth-highest odds.

Here’s the first round order:

  1. Nationals
  2. Angels
  3. Mariners
  4. Rockies
  5. Cardinals
  6. Pirates
  7. Marlins
  8. Blue Jays
  9. Reds
  10. White Sox
  11. Athletics
  12. Rangers
  13. Giants
  14. Rays
  15. Red Sox
  16. Twins
  17. Cubs
  18. Diamondbacks
  19. Astros
  20. Braves
  21. Orioles
  22. Brewers
  23. Royals
  24. Tigers
  25. Padres
  26. Phillies
  27. Mets
  28. Guardians
  29. Yankees
  30. Dodgers

As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the Rockies and Marlins had identical chances (22.5% apiece) of landing the top selection.

All non-playoff teams ostensibly have a chance to win the lottery. However, the CBA also prevents a team that is not a revenue sharing recipient from landing within the top six in consecutive seasons. No team can get a lottery pick more than two years in a row. That ruled out the White Sox and Athletics this year. Chicago is not a revenue sharing recipient and picked fifth last year, while the A’s were in the top six in both 2023 and ’24.

The Sox were not allowed to pick higher than 10th, while the A’s were capped at 11th. That’s despite the White Sox having the worst season of all time that would’ve placed them among the three likeliest teams to pick first. That increased the odds for every team but was especially beneficial to Colorado and Miami (from a probability perspective) by pushing their chances of the #1 pick north of 20%. Unfortunately for those teams, the balls didn’t bounce their way. The Angels and Nationals were the other teams with at least a 10% shot.

Seattle and St. Louis come away as big winners. The Mariners went 85-77 and had the second-best record of any non-playoff team. St. Louis had the fourth-best mark for clubs that didn’t get to the postseason. They nevertheless were fortunate to spring into the top five. It’s a particularly disappointing outcome for Miami, who didn’t land a lottery pick at all despite sharing the best shot at the first selection. The only silver lining is that they’ll remain eligible for lottery picks for at least 2026 and ’27 if they don’t make the playoffs.

Teams that exceeded the third tier of luxury penalization have their top picks dropped by 10 spots unless that selection lands within the top six. (In that instance, the club’s second-highest pick would move back.) MLB has yet to officially announce the 2024 tax data, but it is believed that the Mets, Dodgers and Yankees are the only clubs that surpassed the $277MM threshold for the pick to be dropped. All those teams made the playoffs and weren’t eligible for the lottery anyhow.

The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.

Baseball America published its most recent Top 100 draft prospects in September. As always, that’s worth a full read. Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette topped BA’s list, though there’ll obviously be plenty of changes to the board as next spring’s amateur baseball season gets underway.

Mozeliak: “It’s My Intention To Try” For Arenado Trade

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8:06pm: At least a trio of “mid-market” teams have reached out to the Cardinals about Arenado’s availability, writes Katie Woo of the Athletic. She adds that the Yankees do indeed have interest in the star third baseman, though it’s not known if Arenado would waive his no-trade rights to go to the Bronx.

6:17pm: Nolan Arenado’s name has been floated as a natural trade candidate since the Cardinals are trying to reduce payroll to some extent, and perhaps aren’t making a full-fledged run at contention.  Despite the many obstacles involved in moving Arenado, Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak outright stated “It’s my intention to try” to move Arenado this season when speaking today with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (links to X), Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and other reporters.  A trade could come relatively soon, within the next 7-10 days but probably not during the Winter Meetings.

It is rare to see any executive be so forthcoming in discussing a player’s trade availability, particularly a player who is still under contract for the next three seasons.  However, even as Mozeliak recently walked back the idea of 2025 as a pure rebuilding year for the Cardinals, it seems as though the team would like to open up the third base spot for younger players, in addition to getting some of Arenado’s salary off the books.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause, so he ultimately has the final say over where he plays in 2025 and beyond.  The fact that Mozeliak feels a trade is relatively close would imply that Arenado has already provisionally agreed to a deal to a particular team or to a few teams, so now the Cardinals are sorting through the best offers from this team or teams.  It is already known that Arenado is even willing to move off third base if that’s a better roster fit for a particular club, though it would seem unusual for the 10-time Gold Glover to move away from his accustomed position.

Beyond the no-trade protection, Arenado is owed $74MM over the three remaining years of his contract, though $10MM of that figure is covered by the Rockies as per the terms of the trade that sent Arenado from Colorado to St. Louis during the 2020-21 offseason.  The Cards could attempt to take on another unfavorable contract as salary offset, though that wouldn’t much help the club’s bigger-picture plans.

Finding a trade partner to absorb all of that $64MM would be easier if Arenado was still in his prime All-Star form, though his numbers have fallen off in the last two seasons.  Arenado has hit .269/.320/.426 with 42 home runs in 1247 plate appearances since Opening Day 2023, which is still above average (104 wRC+) production, yet not at his past standard.  His Isolated Power metric plummeted to .123 in 2024, the lowest of his career and drastically below his .241 average in the previous 11 seasons.

Position change notwithstanding, Arenado’s market could be helped by the fact that the pickings are a little slim for teams looking for third base help this winter.  Alex Bregman is easily the best option available in free agency, and the Phillies’ Alec Bohm might be the top third baseman available on the trade front.  If a club feels a change of scenery can produce a bounce-back year for Arenado, a trade might be possible, provided that Arenado is equally enthusiastic about this new location to okay a deal.  Reports indicate that the Yankees are one team that has been approached by the Cardinals about Arenado, though New York’s level of interest isn’t known.

Speaking of Cardinals players with no-trade protection, Miles Mikolas told Goold that he would prefer to stay in St. Louis for the final year of his contract.  Mikolas is owed $16MM in 2025, and finding a taker at that full price could be tricky anyway since Mikolas struggled to a 5.35 ERA over 171 2/3 innings last season.  While the 36-year-old still brings plenty of durability, the Cards might prefer such an innings-eater in their own rotation, since the team has already parted ways with Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson.

Cardinals Facing “Very Limited” Trade Market For Nolan Arenado

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2:24PM: In a follow-up message from Olney on X, he hears from rival executives that the Cardinals will probably have to cover some of Arenado’s salary or take back another unfavorable contract as a salary offset.  As a hypothetical, Olney suggests that if the Dodgers wanted Arenado, Chris Taylor and the $17MM remaining on his contract could be offered back to St. Louis to help cover the financial difference.  It isn’t known whether or not the Cardinals would be open to eating money or taking an unwanted contract back, which could be a further obstacle towards a trade being completed.

2:04PM: Recent comments from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicate that the Cardinals may not be entirely viewing 2025 as a rebuild year, though the team has already made some moves with an eye towards reducing payroll.  Trading Nolan Arenado would certainly be just about the biggest move St. Louis could make in that effort to get younger and less expensive, though beyond just the $74MM in owed salary, moving Arenado is difficult due to his no-trade clause.

To that end, ESPN’s Buster Olney (X link) writes that Arenado has “a very limited list of…preferred teams” for potential trades.  This in turn has left the Cardinals without a ton of leverage in finding an ideal trade fit that would help the Cards recoup something beyond just salary relief for the All-Star third baseman.

Previous reports in regards to Arenado this offseason indicated that he hasn’t directly asked for a trade, but he would be willing to move to first base if such a defensive switch is a better fit for a new team.  These two items represent the complicated nature of these trade talks, as Arenado is seemingly ready to be very flexible and accommodating of a trade, but only to a few clubs.  It isn’t known exactly how many teams Arenado is willing to waive his no-trade protection to join, or how many of those teams have their own interest in Arenado as a trade candidate.

It is possible that the Arenado situation might have informed Mozeliak’s comments about the organization having “every intention of fielding a good baseball team” in 2025.  Willson Contreras has already let the Cards know he isn’t waiving his no-trade protection, and so St. Louis still wanted more time for Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages at catcher, the pivot move was installing Contreras as the team’s new regular first baseman.  Sonny Gray also has a no-trade clause that he reportedly isn’t keen on waiving, complicating the Cardinals’ efforts to move on from the last two years of Gray’s contract.

If trading Arenado is also going to be unfeasible due to a narrow market, the Cardinals might’ve decided against entirely punting on the 2025 season.  Pending free agent Ryan Helsley now seems to be a less-likely trade candidate, further indicating that St. Louis might attempt to rebuild on the fly while still competing in the NL Central.  Of course, Mozeliak’s stance on Helsley could also be gamesmanship to drive up offers, and it’s still early enough in the offseason that the Cards might again change lanes depending on how the trade and free agent markets develop in the next few months.

For instance, the third base market will be altered once Alex Bregman and (in the event of a position change) Willy Adames sign their next contracts.  The Phillies are also known to be shopping Alec Bohm, giving third-base needy teams another option.  None of this might really change things if Arenado simply isn’t willing to expand his list beyond that “very limited” number, but a new team suddenly having a need at third base could perhaps convince Arenado otherwise.

John Mozeliak Discusses Cardinals’ Offseason Plans

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Getting a clear picture of the Cardinals’ plans for 2025 has been a bit of a moving target. Multiple reports over the past months indicated the club was looking at a sort of reset year, lowering the payroll as they pivot towards a focus on player development. As such, it seemed fair to expect that a number of veteran players on the roster would be available in trade. In recent weeks, that expectation has been softened, something that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak discussed with Katie Woo of The Athletic this week.

“We have every intention of fielding a good baseball team,” Mozeliak said. “It’s going to have a different profile, but we still have a lot of belief that some of our younger players will take that next step forward. We’re excited about what we have. Now, it is Dec. 5, and things can happen and things can change. But we’re still going into (next season) with optimism that it’ll be a fun baseball team to watch.”

It seems the plan is to walk a bit of a fine line. The Cards are definitely planning to take their foot of the gas pedal a bit, though maybe not to the degree that was initially expected. All signs point to the club spending a bit less on the 2025 roster, but they might just do that by being less aggressive. RosterResource already projects the club about $35MM below last year’s payroll, so the Cards could just avoid signings as opposed to actively looking to move players with notable contracts.

As of a few weeks ago, it seemed fair to expect players like Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Ryan Helsley and others would be available. Helsley is an excellent reliever but is one year away from free agency, making it logical for them to explore trades. The other three are in their mid-30s and making eight-figure salaries. They all have no-trade protection but it was assumed by some that they would prefer to be traded to a competitor, rather than sticking out a rebuilding process.

But it was reported last month that Contreras actually wanted to stay in St. Louis and didn’t want to waive his no-trade clause. Since one of the goals of the 2025 season is for the club to evaluate players including catchers Iván Herrera and Pedro Pagés, Contreras will be moved to first base to replace free agent Paul Goldschmidt. Though the reporting was a bit less explicit with Gray, it seems he also had a desire to stay with the Cards next year.

Recent reporting has also suggested that they will hold onto Helsley. They could eventually trade him at the deadline but there is some risk there. Helsley could get hurt or put up less impressive numbers in the first half of 2025. Holding onto him now also prevents the acquiring team from making a qualifying offer after 2025, potentially reducing his trade value.

All in all, it seems the plan is to do something in between rebuilding and full-throated contending. The Cards are going to give playing time to some less proven players and hope for some internal developments. Woo lists Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, Pagés and Herrera as players who should get long auditions in 2025. That’s notable for Gorman as he seemed to fall out of favor this past year, getting optioned to the minors with Mozeliak seemingly delivering a harsh assessment of his situation at that time.

“Obviously, it’s a game of production up here and at some point, you’ve got to consistently produce, or we have to find someone who can,” Mozeliak said in August. “I mean, that’s what it ultimately comes down to, and these are hard messages to hear. It can be frustrating, but this is what ends up defining you. With our offensive struggles this year, I think you can strictly look at the inability for consistent performance, day in and day out.”

It seems much has changed since that comment, as Mozeliak now tells Woo that they’re hoping for Gorman to get 600 at-bats next year. He seemed to break out in 2023 with 27 home runs and a strong 11.4% walk rate, working around a high strikeout rate of 31.9%. But his walk rate fell to 8.5% in 2024 as his strikeout rate climbed even higher to 37.6%, leading to his aforementioned optioning to the minors.

The Cards have a few of these talented but unproven players and it seems the plan is to give them a chance to step forward. Walker also had a strong 2023 but fell off in 2024. Burleson had a nice breakout in 2024 that he’ll try to maintain. Nootbaar has been limited by injuries and still hasn’t played 120 games in a season. Pagés and Herrera have been stuck in backup duty behind Contreras.

The overarching plan then is to proverbially throw these players into the deep end and see how well they swim. The Cards believe that, with some success from that group and others, they could potentially compete in 2025. That mentality is leading them to hold onto players like Helsley for now and see how things go. Depending on how the players and the team perform in the first half of 2025 could then determine next steps.

The big remaining unknown seems to be Arenado, who seems to be more open to waiving his no-trade clause than Contreras or Gray, but he hasn’t demanded a trade and the Cardinals don’t seem hellbent on moving him. Whether he returns to St. Louis in 2025 could perhaps depend on what kind of offers are put on the table for him. On top of that, players like Erick Fedde, Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas are impending free agents. The club may be open to trading them depending on the offers, but like Helsley, they could also be retained as the club tries to see if contending in 2025 is possible.

Cardinals Appear Unlikely To Trade Ryan Helsley

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With the Cardinals viewing next season as an opportunity to transition to a younger core, various St. Louis players jumped out as logical trade candidates. Ryan Helsley was chief among them, as the hard-throwing righty is one year from free agency. Helsley is one of the best relievers in baseball and would surely get a lot of attention on the trade market.

Nevertheless, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that teams in contact with the Cardinals expect St. Louis to hold their closer into next season. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak supported that notion. “(A trade is) something we will always remain open-minded to, but our plan is to have him be part of our organization,” Mozeliak told Rosenthal. That aligns with reporting from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who wrote last month that the Cards were inclined to keep Helsley unless blown away by the offers.

That stops a little short of taking him off the market entirely. It’s not quite as definitive a declaration as, say, A’s GM David Forst flatly stating they were going to keep designated hitter Brent Rooker last month. Still, it’s notable that the team’s front office leader went on record to downplay the possibility of a trade.

Helsley has had a dominant three-year run at the back of the bullpen. He broke out with a 1.25 earned run average across 64 2/3 innings in 2022. A forearm strain wiped out a few months of his ’23 campaign, but he posted a 2.45 ERA through 36 2/3 frames when able to take the mound. Helsley’s arm held up over a completely healthy season this year. He fired a career-best 66 1/3 innings with a 2.04 mark over 65 appearances.

After beginning his career in a setup role, Helsley proved himself an elite closer this past season. He led the majors with 49 saves while surrendering only four leads. He paced the National League with 62 games finished. Helsley punched out nearly 30% of opposing hitters against a tolerable 8.6% walk rate. Going back to the start of the ’22 season, he carries a 1.83 ERA with a huge 34.6% strikeout percentage through 167 2/3 innings.

That level of production behind a triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider would’ve made Helsley arguably the best reliever on the trade market. (One can debate whether he’s better than Milwaukee closer Devin Williams, who could be dealt before his final season of team control.) MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Helsley for a $6.9MM salary during his final trip through the arbitration process. That’s well below market price for a lockdown closer.

Carrying Helsley into next season would be a frankly puzzling decision. The Cardinals surely feel they’d get a ton of interest at next summer’s deadline, though there’s always the possibility of an early-season injury tanking his trade value. An offseason trade would also keep open the chance for an acquiring team to recoup draft compensation if Helsley walks in free agency. Teams can only make a qualifying offer to players they’ve had on the roster for the whole season. A team that acquires Helsley before Opening Day could make him a QO next winter; one that lands him at the deadline could not.

Qualifying offers for relievers are rare but not unheard of. Raisel Iglesias and Josh Hader declined QOs before their trips to free agency. Edwin Díaz would’ve received a QO had he not re-signed just before hitting the market. A typical Helsley season could put him in that tier. There’s enough volatility with relievers that he certainly wouldn’t be a lock for the QO, but that possibility could hold some value to other teams now and would not exist over the summer.

The Cardinals themselves could make Helsley a qualifying offer if they don’t trade him at all. Speculation about a full teardown has quieted in recent weeks. Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray, both of whom have no-trade clauses, are unlikely to be dealt after expressing their preference to stick around. The Cards are expected to entertain trade possibilities on Nolan Arenado. Beyond that, they could run things back with most of last year’s roster. Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Kittredge and Lance Lynn were their free agents of note.

Perhaps the Cardinals feel they can hang in the NL Central mix if they get a few internal improvements. There’s still a decent amount of talent on a roster that finished above .500 at 83-79 this year. Winning the division would be a long shot unless they’re active in free agency, but they seem to be willing to at least see how things play out in the season’s first couple months.

Cardinals Sign Ryan Vilade To Minor League Deal

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The Cardinals announced that they have signed infielder/outfielder Ryan Vilade to a minor league contract. The Icon Sports Management client also receives a non-roster invite to major league spring training.

Vilade, 26 in February, has some slivers of major league experience. He got into three games for the 2021 Rockies and then 17 games for the 2024 Tigers. He has a .157/.200/.216 batting line in 56 plate appearances in the big leagues. He was outrighted by Detroit at the end of the season and elected free agency.

Those numbers are obviously not impressive, but it’s also a tiny sample size and the Cards are surely looking more at his minor league track record. He got into 108 Triple-A games in 2024, slashing .278/.346/.449 for a 105 wRC+ in his 442 plate appearances at that level. He also stole 20 bases while lining up defensively at all three outfield spots and the three non-shortstop infield positions.

Vilade also has a bit of prospect pedigree, as he was a second-round pick of the Rockies in 2017. He hit well in the lower levels of the minors in the early stages of his professional career, getting ranked by Baseball America as one of Colorado’s top ten prospects from 2018 to 2022. But he didn’t hit much at the Triple-A level in 2021 or 2022, so the Rockies put him on waivers. The Pirates put in a claim and ran him through waivers, with Vilade then going on to have another lackluster Triple-A season in 2023.

He was able to elect free agency going into 2024 and signed a minor league deal with the Tigers. As mentioned, he didn’t do much in his brief major league time but got back on track a bit at the Triple-A level, enough to intrigue the Cardinals.

St. Louis is planning for 2025 to be a reset year, where they will be more focused on upgrading their player development pipeline than on short-term contention. As such, it’s possible that they could consider trades of players with limited long-term value. Nolan Arenado seems like he could be on the move since he is turning 34 and wants to play for a contender. Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar have three years of club control left and are plausible candidates to be available. Nolan Gorman still has four years of club control remaining but seems to have fallen out of favor with the Cards, making him a change of scenery candidate. Paul Goldschmidt is already gone via free agency.

Vilade’s ability to play multiple positions means that he could take up some of the playing time that might shake loose as the club shuffles the roster. If he gets a roster spot at any point, he still has one option year remaining and only has a few days of service time, meaning he can potentially be cheaply retained into the future.

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