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Trade Deadline Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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Led by All-Star starters Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong, the Cubs are in a great position to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.  Their position player mix could use some tweaks, but the team's priority will be its battered rotation.

Jed Hoyer has had the top chair in the Cubs' baseball operations department since Theo Epstein stepped down in November 2020.  Hoyer was the number two man in Epstein's front office before that, after he'd led the Padres' front office for two years.  He's played a large part for "buy mode" contenders across many trade deadlines and has been unafraid to move prospects and good young players.  Hoyer sent a strong "all-in" message in December by trading last year's first rounder Cam Smith along with three years of Isaac Paredes and five of Hayden Wesneski for one year of Kyle Tucker.

Hoyer is in the last year of a five-year contract with the Cubs, so it's a bit odd to have him making long-term decisions for the franchise with his own future in doubt.  Back when Epstein stepped down, he said, "The organization faces many decisions this winter that carry long-term consequences; those types of decisions are best made by someone who will be here for a long period rather than for just one more year."  Perhaps an extension for Hoyer is forthcoming.  For now, I'm sure, his focus is on shoring up the first-place Cubs for a deep playoff run.

Record: 54-36 (94.6% playoff probability)

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Two starting pitchers, starting third baseman, lefty-mashing first baseman, general relief help

With Jameson Taillon on the IL into August due to a calf strain, the Cubs' rotation is down to two reliable established Major Leaguers: Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd.  Expected ace Justin Steele is out for the season due to Tommy John surgery.

Taillon still figures to be part of the playoff picture for the Cubs.  Colin Rea and Cade Horton are in the rotation at present, and Ben Brown made 14 starts before being optioned in late June.  Veteran Chris Flexen made 30 starts last year.  Jordan Wicks got the call four days ago but may be used in a long relief role.  Javier Assad, who started 29 games last year, has been dealing with an oblique injury all season.  It's not clear what the Cubs will get from him in 2025.

There are enough rotation options on hand to get through the regular season, but the goal is to win the World Series.  Boyd, the Cubs' All-Star lefty, is 34 years old and hasn't shouldered a full workload since 2019.  This team needs to add two starting pitchers, including at least one who can start a playoff game.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Hey everyone, hope you enjoyed the holiday weekend!
  • Steve stretched his into a four-day weekend so I'm in today and he'll take the usual Friday slot. Going to stay around an hour on this one as a result
  • Let's get rolling

Cactusflair

  • Why didnt the Nats actually try to improve the team in this past off season??  Felt like outside of Sirotka signing they did nothing.

Denise Dunbar

  • Do you think the Nats' first pick in next week's draft will be even more telling after the Rizzo firing? It seems to me if they pick Holliday, they're saying the rebuild is ongoing for quite a while. In that instance, I think they should trade Gore if they can get a haul for him. Conversely, if they take one of the college lefties, to me that means they think they could possibly contend for a wildcard next year and might signal they plan to spend more this offseason. Interestingly, they sent out a season ticket holder survey about 10 days ago asking lots of questions about how satisfied we were with the direction of the team. I lambasted ownership, but not management, in responses. But I also wonder if this survey and its overall results factored into their decision making?

Anthony Franco

  • Two of a number of Nats questions in here. Martinez getting fired didn't really surprise me but I was a little taken aback that they moved on from Rizzo. I get why it happened, but I didn't see that coming
  • I actually think their offseason made sense. They felt they were still a year off from being competitive and didn't think a Danny Jansen signing or Eugenio Suárez trade would've moved the needle. Hard for me to disagree with that. They probably should've been involved at the top of the rotation market, but that's as much an ownership question as it is a front office one
  • Obviously, their series of low-cost bullpen pickups especially blew up, but I actually think they've shown progress this year in the more meaningful stuff (Wood's emergence as a superstar, Gore's development, etc.)
  • I wouldn't read too much into the #1 pick as a sign of their long-term direction. Even if they do take Holliday (or Eli Willits, I guess), it's not uncommon for top high school draftees to get to the majors within two or three years. It'd just be a sign that they think those guys are better prospects than the top college pitcher on their board

Opt-Out

  • Is this the trade deadline someone with an opt-out or player option finally gets traded?

Anthony Franco

  • Happened with Scherzer a few years ago, though he preemptively exercised the option to make it happen. I think someone will take the risk on Lugo this summer
  • He's obviously going to opt out if he's healthy, $15M if he does blow out would suck but isn't catastrophic (it's what teams gamble on the current version of Scherzer and Verlander and Alex Cobb), and the supply of starting pitching is really light

Edward Cabrera

  • What does a trade package look like for me and who do you think will be calling Bendix the most about it? Is there a world where Sandy and I get dealt to the same team?

Anthony Franco

  • He fits anywhere really (aside from the deep rebuild teams like Colorado and the White Sox). Cheap, amidst a potential breakout, two and a half seasons of control
  • Yankees, Cubs and Padres are the first three that come to mind but there aren't many places he could land that would surprise me
  • Seems less likely that someone would do the Alcantara/Cabrera package deal. They're both good enough to support a strong return individually, and the Fish would probably be better off splitting them up and shopping each individually. No guarantee they move Cabrera at all

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Darragh McDonald

  • Do you want to spend today at a cookout with your friends, family and neighbors? Or do you want to spend it talking to a Canadian about baseball on the internet?
  • Use your freedom to decide on that and I'll be back at 2pm Central. Feel free to drop questions in the meantime.
  • Hello.
  • Do you hear the chimes of freedom where you are?
  • There's construction going on outside my home, so I can barely hear myself think.
  • Let's enjoy discussing baseball together.

Western skies

  • Happy four days after Canada Day! The Braves are saying all the right things, but they’re going to more than tweak before the deadline, right? I’ve thought for some time they will use the All-Star stuff as a showcase/diversion before making any big moves. Then what?

Steve

  • Do you think the Braves sell after the Schwellenbach news? Would Olson to the Red Sox for Casas plus some other pieces be possible?

notsohotlanta

  • As the Braves continue their quest to prove they are pulseless ,when does the sale/trade begin? When does Snitker and the hitting staff exit?

Darragh McDonald

  • Barring a red-hot streak in the coming weeks, I do think Atlanta needs to accept their fate and sell. I assume that, internally, they are aware things aren't going well.
  • I understand why AA felt the need to project outward confidence. You don't want to tell your players you're waving the white flag.
  • But making a run with no Sale, Schwellenbach, Lopez or AJSS is really hard to see.
  • FanGraphs gives them just a 13.5% chance of making the playoffs as of this moment. Unless they crack off a 13-game winning streak or something, I think they will do some selling, at least of impending free agents.
  • I don't think Olson will be available.
  • As for Snitker and the staff, that I don't know. The World Series victory surely gives him a lot of rope but things have been trending down for a few years now.

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MLB Mailbag: Braves, Cubs, Sasaki, Angels, Volpe

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This week's mailbag is a bit of a hybrid. MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes handles the first handful of questions, while Anthony Franco takes the final few to round it out. We'll get into the Braves' continually sinking playoff chances, trade possibilities for the Cubs, Roki Sasaki's disappointing debut season, deadline outlooks for a handful of bubble teams, and much more!

Kevin asks:

Should the Braves attempt a rebuild, move on from some of the core that is underperforming again and develop a new draft philosophy? Maybe draft some hitters?

Phillip asks:

I am a Braves Fan, win or lose and I watch them every night. This season and the season they won the World Series are 2 different entities. Why would the Braves not trade Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna? I mean we have so many weaknesses, we have 3 starting pitchers, bottom of our lineup is worst in baseball and our relievers are among the worst in baseball. What could we get for Ozuna and Iglesias?

It's worth considering that the 2021 Braves were 30-35 with 12% playoff odds on 6-16-21.  On 7-2-21, that had risen to 40-41 with a 20.6% chance at the playoffs.  The current team is worse at 38-46, but still holds a 17.2% chance at the playoffs.  It's not that different from where the World Series-winning team once was.

Still, the Braves are 7.5 games out in the Wild Card.  They've played like a 73-win team.  To have a shot at the playoffs they'd need to play more like a 100-win team.  I'm more on the side of Braves fans here than I am on the side of FanGraphs Playoff Odds.  And these guys wrote in before news of Spencer Schwellenbach's injury.

Ozuna, 34, has experienced a power outage this year.  However, his expected slugging percentage is .487 versus his actual .392 mark, and I assume he'll be fine.  He's a DH-only rental making $16MM, so my guess is that he'd bring in 40-grade type prospects.  Iglesias is 35 and making the same money.  His velocity and strikeout rate are slipping, and somehow 18.4% of his flyballs have left the yard.  I think he'd be a pure salary dump.

So while I don't think the Braves will make the playoffs, I also don't think they're re-stocking the farm system by trading Ozuna and Iglesias.

As for Kevin's question, let's do a mini-assessment of the Braves' core, with the player's 2026 age in parentheses.  Money owed in 2025 is not included.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Washington Nationals

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MLBTR's new team-by-team deadline preview series (available to Front Office subscribers) continues with a look at the Nationals, who are on pace for their sixth consecutive losing season.  The Nats were hanging in there with a 28-30 record at May's end, but an 11-game losing streak led to a brutal 7-19 record in June, all but officially ending Washington's hopes of an end to its lengthy rebuild process.  While the team's few cornerstone players are breaking out, pretty much the rest of the roster has underachieved, leaving president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo selling once more heading into the July 31 deadline.

Record: 35-50 (0.1% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Sell Mode

Impending free agents: Kyle Finnegan, Michael Soroka, Josh Bell, Amed Rosario, Andrew Chafin, Paul DeJong, Derek Law

Finnegan was an All-Star in 2024 and drew attention at last year's trade deadline, though he somewhat surprisingly ended up staying put.  It could be that the Nationals had too high an asking price, or teams had doubts about Finnegan's shaky advanced metrics, or perhaps a combination of both factors ended up keeping Finnegan in the District for the remainder of 2024.  As it happened, Finnegan's performance went south in the second half, and the Nats cut him last winter by non-tendering the reliever instead of a projected $8.6MM arbitration salary.  However, the club shaved some cash off that number by then re-signing Finnegan to a one-year, $6MM deal (with $4MM in deferrals).

Now in his sixth season in D.C., Finnegan has again been pretty solid at the back of the Nats' pen, securing 18 of 23 save opportunities and posting a 2.61 ERA over 31 innings.  Finnegan doesn't fit the typical closer model with his below-average strikeout rates, and while his 96.1mph fastball velocity this season is still impressive, it is also notably slower than his 97.2mph average velo from 2024.  On the plus side, Finnegan's hard-hit ball rate is a strong 37.1% --- a massive turn-around considering few pitchers in the entire sport allowed more hard contact than he did over the 2022-24 seasons.

Washington will surely get more calls about Finnegan this July, and the Nationals may feel more compelled to swing a deal with him just a few months removed from free agency.  It isn't a reach to view Finnegan as a fit on almost any roster, given his low remaining salary, how many contenders need bullpen help, and his experience in high-leverage situations.  The Cubs reportedly had interest in Finnegan this past winter and the Yankees, Phillies, and Dodgers were all linked to Finnegan's market prior to last season's trade deadline, so these teams in particular stand out as potential candidates.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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The White Sox are next up in MLBTR's new Trade Deadline Outlook series.  After losing a modern-day record 121 games last year, the Sox are on pace to lose "only" 108 this year.  The Pale Hose remain firmly in the "clear seller" group as one of six teams with less than a 1% shot at reaching the playoffs.

White Sox executive vice president/general manager Chris Getz took over after the 2023 trade deadline, so this is only his second time being in the top chair for the event.  Last summer, Getz packaged several of his top assets together in Erick Fedde, Michael Kopech, and Tommy Pham, netting Miguel Vargas as the headliner.  That trade looked rough out of the gate, as Vargas was one of the game's worst players after joining the White Sox.  The 25-year-old somewhat redeemed himself with a hot May this year.

Getz held out until the offseason to move lefty Garrett Crochet, drawing better reviews for that deal.  While the four-player return on that trade looks promising, it may still be painful to see Crochet locked up through 2031 and vying for the AL Cy Young award.  That deal will take years to truly evaluate, but as we look ahead to July, the question for the White Sox is whether they have anything valuable left to trade.

Record: 28-56 (0.0% playoff probability)

Sell Mode

Impending Free Agents: Aaron Civale, Martin Perez, Adrian Houser, Tyler Alexander, Michael A. Taylor, Austin Slater

Civale was picked up from the Brewers in a one-for-one swap on June 13th for Andrew Vaughn.  Perhaps it was a bit of a monkey's paw situation for the 30-year-old Civale, who requested a trade from the contending Brewers upon being moved to the bullpen, only to land in the rotation of the rebuilding White Sox.

Civale was hoping to maintain his earning power as a starting pitcher, though it's unclear he's helped his case in a small three-start sample with Chicago.  On the season, he's got a well-deserved 4.74 ERA in eight starts, having missed over a month with a hamstring strain.  He's been unable to miss bats this year and his homer-prone tendencies have continued.

The White Sox had nothing to lose by acquiring Civale, in that they were highly likely to non-tender Vaughn after the season.  But as an $8MM back of the rotation guy, Civale won't be making playoff starts in October and won't bring more than a low-level prospect.  Potential suitors may want some help with his salary.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! Sorry to start a bit later than usual today. Schedule moved around a bit with Darragh having a well-deserved day off. We'll get going at 3:30pm CT, but feel free to ask questions ahead of time, as always.
  • Good afternoon! Let's get underway

El Chupacabra

  • If the Royals were to trade Seth Lugo today, how much more - or less - would the return likely be vs. if they waited until the trade deadline?

Steve Adams

  • I don't think the return would be materially different. You could say the acquiring team might be forced to give up more to compensate for the extra month of control, but there'd also be fewer teams bidding, which could impact the price as well. The extent to which those offset each other can really only be theorized upon.For what it's worth, I also don't expect the Royals to trade Lugo. They're intent on contending, and GM JJ Picollo was recently quoted on record when discussing how important back-to-back playoff appearances would be.

    Further, as I often say, player options/opt-outs are so hard to navigate in trade talks. Eventually we'll see a prominent player with an opt-out at season's end traded, but these guys never really move in actuality. The team trading for Lugo would have to know he's either going to pitch well and opt out or that he'd get hurt and/or see his performance tank and forgo the out... thus saddling them with an unwanted salary on the 2026 books.

  • That makes it really hard to agree on prospects to be exchanged in the deal, as the Royals will want to market him like a playoff-caliber starter but the acquiring team knows that if he bombs, they're essentially taking on a bad contract. Pricing in that downside makes the trade less appealing for Kansas City. And, again, the Royals probably don't really want to trade Lugo in the first place.

Stockholm, AZ

  • What are the Diamondbacks gonna do? That was a crap series against Miami, and now they’re under .500. Season beyond rescue? I had such high hopes..

Steve Adams

  • I just have a hard time seeing them wind up in genuine contention with Carroll out, Burnes out, and Zac Gallen pitching more like Zack Godley. Even if this iteration of the D-backs got to the postseason, could they feel good about a playoff rotation of this version of Gallen and Merrill Kelly leading the way, followed by one of Pfaadt or E-Rod? And without Justin Martinez or AJ Puk in the bullpen? It just feels like a soft reset (trading Suarez, Kelly, Gallen, etc.) is kind of inevitable to me.

RoxTalks

  • Does the Rockies' nepotism hiring of Monfort's son to be executive VP basically ensure this team will be bad forever? It is extremely difficult to continue to support this team. Cannot believe the league allows stuff like this.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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Thus far, MLBTR's Deadline Outlook series has focused on teams that have a clear buy or sell direction. The Orioles are certainly trending towards the latter but are arguably the first semi-bubble team that we'll cover. Barring a monster July, they'll have no choice but to sell at least some short-term pieces. They've got a number of players who'll draw interest.

Record: 34-46 (2.9% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Sell Mode

Impending Free Agents: Ryan O'Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Charlie Morton, Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano, Gary Sánchez

Baltimore has eight impending free agents, seven of whom have some level of trade value. O'Hearn has slumped this month but still carries a robust .301/.384/.485 line. It's his third consecutive above-average season, and he's playing on an affordable $8MM salary. The Mariners, Giants, Reds, Rangers and Royals could all make sense. Mullins had a monster April but hasn't hit over the last two months. He's nevertheless alongside Luis Robert Jr. as the most obvious trade candidates at a weak position. The Mets, Phillies, Guardians, Royals, Padres and Braves are among teams that could use a center fielder or could target Mullins with an eye towards playing him in a corner.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Athletics

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MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming trade deadline continues with a look at the Athletics, a team that has been rebuilding for a few years now. They had an aggressive winter ahead of the 2025 campaign and showed some promise early in the season but they have since fallen back and are clearly not out of the rebuild yet.

Record: 33-50 (0.2% playoff probability)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins

Sell Mode

Impending free agents: Luis Urías, Sean Newcomb, Gio Urshela, T.J. McFarland, Miguel Andujar, José Leclerc

These guys should all be very much available in the next few weeks, though it's unlikely the A's get a massive return from any of them. Luis Urías should be the most appealing of the bunch. The A's signed him to a one-year, $1.1MM deal in the offseason. He has appeared in 66 games so far this year with seven home runs, a 10% walk rate and 13.3% strikeout rate. His .244/.328/.378 batting line translates to a 102 wRC+. He has mostly played second base in 2025 but has also spent some time at third and has extensive experience at both positions. He's not a superstar, but he's a solid option in a market without a ton of others available, so he should be able to net the A's a prospect or two. Last year, infielders like Paul DeJong, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Amed Rosario were flipped for modest returns and Urías could be somewhat similar.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Hey everyone, hope you've had a good week!

Tony

  • Thanks for the chat! My question is Cardinal related. It appears that their biggest needs are bullpen and right handed hitting outfield. If they packaged Fedde and Gorman (change of scenery) and a minor league catcher (or Pages from the MLB team) what kind of returns would you expect? Any impact players?

Anthony Franco

  • Not getting any impact talent with those guys. I think they each have slightly positive trade value but that's a quantity over quality package at this point. You'd probably need a team that really likes Pages' glove and thinks he's a low-end #1 catcher to get anything of note back

Sandy

  • All of the mock trades for me have been wild. If seen mocks that include both Leo De Vries & Ethan Salas is crazy. What type of package do the Marlins get for me

Anthony Franco

  • I have no idea what you're referring to on the mock specifics but yeah, they wouldn't get either De Vries or Salas
  • I do think they can pull a 50-FV type headliner though, someone who'd fall into the back half of the top 100 range. The velocity's still there, the command has been better lately, and he's making fourth/fifth starter money

Grateful Follower

  • Do you think any team (Tampa?) might attempt to acquire Soderstrom from the A’s with an eye towards possibly returning him to Catcher (even if the switchback was to wait until next year)?  Or has that ship sailed?

Anthony Franco

  • That'd be a really interesting one. I can see the logic, especially if they pull a controllable MLB starter. Doesn't even necessarily need to be a catcher conversion -- that'd be really tough to do midseason especially -- but just finding a team that can put him back at first base makes some sense

Utah Fan

  • Who would be targets for the TWINS if they are buyers at the deadline?

Anthony Franco

  • Man, any kind of functional pitching. Aside from Ryan, the staff has totally collapsed after the López and Matthews injuries. Feels like they need multiple relievers and at least one new starter if they're going to try to make it work this year

Knock-Knock

  • If Garver is your backup catcher you’re doing great at the position. He was brought in to DH for the M's, but that didn’t work out. He is overqualified for his current job, but I’d rather have him sit in the dugout 4 days in a row than bring up Ford to sit. With Cal as the forever catcher, Ford is tradeable. Why bring him up and run the risk of diminishing his value or to play once a week when he can add to his value playing every day in the minors?

Anthony Franco

  • This one seems like it's conditional on a Garver IL stint but at some point, Ford just has nothing left to show them in Triple-A
  • Cal's not going away anytime soon. They're just going to have to do the Drake Baldwin/Dalton Rushing thing of using him infrequently as a backup with the potential for occasional DH starts and letting him get his feet wet against big league pitching

Gimenez

  • Whatever happened to Andres Gimenez? Did he peak at age 23? It's one thing being a .250 hitter, but he's been below the Mendoza line for most of the season.

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