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Trade Deadline Outlook: San Diego Padres

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Our team-by-team Trade Deadline Outlook series continues with the Padres. San Diego's top-heavy roster makes it easy to identify the priorities. If they remain resistant to trading either of their top prospects, they could pivot to under-the-radar or rental trade targets.

Record: 52-44 (48.3% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Mariners

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Catcher, left field, starting pitcher, utility infielder

San Diego has had the same top few needs going back to the offseason. Free agent departures of Kyle Higashioka and Jurickson Profar left them without answers at catcher and in left field, respectively. The rotation depth has been a question since Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery. The late-offseason Nick Pivetta signing has been massive, but the back of the rotation still feels tenuous. Low-cost pickups in catcher and left field have not panned out, leaving the Padres to address both positions over the next two and a half weeks.

The Padres have had arguably the worst catching tandem in MLB. Elias Díaz and Martín Maldonado have combined to hit .195/.255/.306 over 327 plate appearances. Neither player rates highly as a pitch framer. While both players, especially Maldonado, have a strong reputation for the unquantifiable aspects of catcher defense (e.g. game-calling, managing a pitching staff), the production has not been there. It speaks to how far former top prospect Luis Campusano has fallen in the organization's eyes that he hasn't gotten an opportunity this year.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners are up next in our team-by-team Trade Deadline Outlook series. Seattle last made the postseason in 2022 and has had numerous near misses in recent years under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander. The Mariners' vaunted young rotation has long been the talk of baseball, but the M's also have an excellent farm system they can leverage to improve the roster over the next three weeks.

Record: 49-45 (Playoff probability 61.4%, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays

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Potential Needs: First base, third base, late-inning reliever

The Mariners needed offense throughout the winter but were afforded little to no financial resources to make it happen. Dipoto and Hollander dealt with substantial payroll restrictions for a second straight winter, reportedly trying to stretch a budget of about $15-16MM to acquire as many as three different bats. The resulting additions -- Jorge Polanco, Rowdy Tellez, Donovan Solano -- haven't paid off much. Polanco has been quite productive but has been relegated to DH duty for much of the season due to injuries. Tellez was released last month. Solano has hit better over the past five weeks or so but has been a liability for most of the year.

On top of those underwhelming additions, the M's have been plagued by injuries. Victor Robles suffered a shoulder injury that'll cost him more than half the season. Luke Raley missed more than a month with an oblique injury. Second baseman Ryan Bliss ruptured his biceps in April and will likely miss the remainder of the season.

Fortunately for the Mariners' baseball operations staff, it seems ownership has come around on spending to further bolster the lineup. It's not clear just how far north they're willing to take payroll, but even a relatively modest increase could be a boon for a club that could clearly use help at two corner spots. So, where can the Mariners turn?

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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MLBTR’s new deadline preview series (available to Front Office subscribers) continues with a look at the Blue Jays, who held a 26-28 record on May 27 and seemed to be headed for another also-ran season.  However, the Jays have since won 29 of their last 40 games, pushing Toronto to the top of the AL East.  With the postseason now looking like a very realistic possibility, the Jays have plenty of options available to them as they consider roster upgrades.

Record: 55-39 (89.3% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Starting pitching, relief pitching, outfield depth, bench depth, possibly third base

Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt have been invaluable to the Blue Jays, as the steadiness and durability of the top three starters helped keep the pitching staff on track amidst some early chaos at the back end of the rotation.  Minor league signing Eric Lauer has a 2.78 ERA over 55 innings, and his entry into the fourth starter's spot was a key element of Toronto's success over the last six weeks.  Max Scherzer has pitched only 23 innings due to his ever-present thumb problems, and it remains to be seen whether or not Scherzer can remain healthy enough to contribute as a full-fledged starter or perhaps as a piggyback starter in front of a long reliever.

Even with Alek Manoah aiming to return from UCL surgery at some point in August, Manoah's own struggles since Opening Day 2023 make him far from a possible savior.  The Jays could obviously use an extra arm to help stabilize the starting five, as if Lauer starts to regress or one of the top three starters gets injured, the pitching situation could quickly go south.  That would in turn put more pressure on the bullpen, which itself could use some reinforcement after tossing a lot of innings over the first half.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: New York Mets

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MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Mets. Things have cooled after a hot start, thanks to a mounting number of injuries. But the club is still in playoff position and should be adding this month.

Record: 53-41 (83.1% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Starting pitching; bullpen help, particularly from the left side; center fielder; infielder; catcher

Life comes at you fast in the baseball world. That's especially true in this era, where pitchers are pushing the human body to its limits. On June 12th, the Mets had a record of 45-24 and a 5.5-game lead over the Phillies in the National League East. They had a healthy rotation and a couple of guys on rehab assignments, almost ready to come off the injured list. At that moment, it seems like Frankie Montas was going to get squeezed to the bullpen and Paul Blackburn to the trade block.

On that June 12th date, Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported that the Mets were getting trade interest on Blackburn due to their apparent rotation surplus. But moments after that report came out, Kodai Senga collapsed on the field with an apparent injury. He would be placed on the IL with a hamstring strain shortly thereafter. Not long after that, Tylor Megill also hit the IL, in his case due to an elbow sprain. A little over a week later, Griffin Canning ruptured his Achilles' tendon and Blackburn hit the IL with a shoulder impingement.

That barrage of injuries has quickly turned a surplus into a deficit and hampered the club's results. They have gone 8-17 over the past few weeks and are now a game and a half behind the Phils in the East. They are still firmly in contention, holding a Wild Card spot, but now seem likelier to add starting pitching.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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The Angels have hung around the Wild Card mix, exceeding most expectations. Their -57 run differential is fourth-worst in the American League, but they're within two games of .500 and only three games out of a playoff spot. While this still doesn't look like a good team, they may have played well enough to convince the front office to add in hopes of snapping the game's longest active postseason drought.

Record: 45-48 (3.4% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Infielder, mid-rotation starter, high-leverage relief, left-handed bat

The Angels are not going to add a full-time designated hitter, where they have Mike Trout playing every day. Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel have shortstop and first base secured, respectively. They're probably not going to add a catcher, though they could give more frequent playing time to Travis d'Arnaud in place of the struggling Logan O'Hoppe.

Beyond that, there are a lot of different ways to deepen the position player mix. The outfield is superficially set. Taylor Ward, Jo Adell and Jorge Soler are playing every day from left to right. Ward leads the team with 21 home runs, while Adell has been on a tear lately and is the team's most productive hitter overall. Soler is having a poor season, though, and there's an arguable redundancy to the Angels' current outfield.

All three players hit right-handed (as does Trout, who will be eased back into outfield work following the All-Star break, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). Each of Ward, Adell and Soler are power bats with questionable on-base skills. Adell is a below-average defensive center fielder. He's playing there out of necessity and fits better in a corner. Maybe that's not something that can be addressed this summer, but they'd ideally have a better defender in center and find room for Adell in left or right field.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: New York Yankees

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MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers are always trying to win the World Series and this year will certainly be no exception. The American League East is tight, as is the Wild Card race, but the Yanks are obviously going to do everything they can to strengthen the roster for the playoff push.

Record: 51-41 (89.8% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Starting pitcher, third baseman, relievers

Before the 2025 season even began, the Yankee rotation got blown up. Luis Gil was diagnosed with a lat strain in early March, meaning he was destined to miss a decent chunk of the first half, at least. A few days later, even more ominous news came out, with Gerrit Cole getting some tests done on his elbow. The worst-case scenario eventually came to pass, as he underwent Tommy John surgery.

Cole is going to miss the entire season. Gil could be back in the mix at some point but is still on the injured list and hasn't begun a rehab assignment. Despite those two major challenges, the remaining starters have held the club above water. The rotation has a collective 3.69 earned run average this year, good for eighth in the majors. Lefties Max Fried and Carlos Rodón are each earning their salaries this year. Guys like Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren and Ryan Yarbrough have done good work supporting Fried and Rodón. Marcus Stroman just returned from the IL, but Yarbrough and Schmidt both landed on the shelf recently. In Schmidt's case, he will undergo Tommy John surgery and won't be back this year.

Looking ahead to the club's playoff rotation, Fried is a lock. Rodón would be as well, though his injury track record is well known at this point. Warren tossed around 130 innings in each of the past three years and is up to 90 so far this season. Will there be any questions about his playoff effectiveness as he pushes into the 150-175 range? Stroman wasn't trusted in the club's playoff push last year and they tried to trade him in the winter. Presumably, he hasn't increased his standing in 2025, since he's spent most of the year injured. Cam Schlittler is getting a chance in the majors now but won't have much time to prove himself prior to the deadline. Adding a starter is therefore a priority and general manager Brian Cashman has confirmed as much.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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On June 18, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said Atlanta is "not selling." They've gone 7-11 and lost two of their three best starting pitchers to long-term injuries since then. They're 11 games under .500 and have dropped behind the Marlins in the NL East standings. The front office may not have wanted to sell, but the team has left them no choice.

The more interesting question is whether they feel it's necessary to make a major shakeup. They could move a couple rentals and run it back with mostly the same roster in 2026. That'd be a signal they view this season as an injury-wrecked aberration. That wouldn't address some of the issues -- a lack of rotation depth, zero production from the bottom half of the lineup -- that have tanked their '25 season. The Braves have committed to the same core with a boatload of long-term extensions. Do they feel they need a significant change to that group?

Record: 40-51 (5.1% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers

Sell Mode

Impending Free Agents: Marcell Ozuna, Raisel Iglesias, Rafael Montero

The Braves only have three rentals, none of whom would be a massive trade chip. Montero is a league average middle reliever who could be cashed in for a lottery ticket prospect. Ozuna and Iglesias are bigger names and more interesting trade targets, but they've each had inconsistent seasons and are quite expensive.

Iglesias, 35, is playing on a $16MM salary. The veteran righty lost his hold on the closer role last month. He has performed better since moving into more low-leverage situations, rattling off 12 1/3 frames of four-run ball since the beginning of June. Iglesias has not allowed a home run in that stretch, a big turnaround after he gave up seven longballs through the season's first two months. He still has a strong strikeout and walk profile, but he's carrying a career-worst 4.81 earned run average over 33 2/3 innings on the year. The Braves would probably need to pay down part of the contract to move him for a semi-notable prospect.

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MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Rangers, J-Rod, Yankees, Bichette

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This week's mailbag gets into the Cardinals' deadline approach, the lefty relief market, offseason ideas for the Rangers, the Mariners trading Julio Rodriguez, who the Yankees could give up in trades, Bo Bichette's future, and much more.

Rich asks:

With two bad performances by starting pitchers, Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde, will the Cardinals seek a trade for at least one veteran starting pitcher?

Sam asks:

Bernie Miklasz who seems pretty well sourced was talking about the Cardinals potentially trading Nootbaar. If they do that, what sort of return would the Cardinals get? His results are not good but his statcast data is great.

At the time of this writing, the Cardinals are 1.5 games out in the wild card with a 33.5% chance at the playoffs.

The first question reminds me a bit of the 2021 season, when John Mozeliak's Cardinals reached deadline day as a .500 club with just a 2-3% chance at the playoffs.  The club picked up veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ at the deadline, with Mozeliak saying, "We wanted to try to do it in a way that we wouldn't be giving up a lot of future talent; that was something that was sort of critical in our decision-making. Needless to say, today we felt like we took a couple steps forward without having to sacrifice our future."

The 2021 team went 39-21 from July 30th onward before losing the (lone) NL Wild Card game against the Dodgers.  Lester and Happ gave the Cardinals exactly what they wanted: innings.  Innings are generally what Mikolas and Fedde provide, having combined for 349 of them last year.  Sonny Gray has been excellent, while Matthew Liberatore and Andre Pallante have been solid.

Mikolas and Fedde do deserve ERAs around 5.00, and there's logic to seeking an upgrade - either one controllable beyond this year, or one in the Lester/Happ mold who doesn't cost much.  In my recent Cubs Trade Deadline Outlook, I named just about every potentially available starting pitcher I could think of, though Steve Adams suggested I add Drew Rasmussen.  The Cardinals have a very real shot at reaching the playoffs this year - perhaps more than they expected coming into the season - and I do think they should add a starter.

In an article Monday, Katie Woo of The Athletic noted that Fedde may not take his next turn in the rotation, and Mikolas shouldn't feel comfortable either.  Michael McGreevy is the next man up.  The 25-year-old has excelled in Triple-A and can probably do better than Fedde.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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MLBTR’s new team-by-team deadline preview series (available to Front Office subscribers) continues with a look at the reigning World Series champions, who are laser-focused on defending their title.  The Dodgers have again weathered a storm of pitching injuries to take control of the NL West, and at this point are looking primarily at adding a few finishing touches to lengthen what is already a championship-caliber roster.

Record: 56-37 (99.3% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Relief pitching, infield depth, outfield depth, rotation depth

In an example of how deadline plans can quickly evolve, this list of needs would have been shorter if the Dodgers' outlook piece had been written even a week ago.  Just within the last few days, Max Muncy sustained a bone bruise in his left knee that will keep him out until mid-August, Enrique Hernandez was placed on the 10-day injured list due to lingering elbow inflammation that has been bothering the utilityman for over a month, Tommy Edman suffered a hairline fracture in his right baby toe after being hit by a pitch, and Teoscar Hernandez is day-to-day after fouling a ball off his left foot.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays are up next in MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming trade deadline. Tampa Bay has weathered an uneven start to the season and emerged in the thick of the division race. The Rays are currently six games over .500, good for third place in the American League East but sole possession of the American League's second Wild Card spot. They're five games back of the division-leading Blue Jays.

While most clubs tend to pick a buy or sell lane, the Rays are always open to a bit of a mixed-bag approach. They're constantly working to walk the line between rebuilding and contending and are never afraid to trade from the major league roster. President of baseball operations Erik Neander and his staff will be looking to add to the roster ahead of what looks like a very likely playoff run, but the Rays will probably still get some calls on some of their pricey veterans with dwindling levels of club control.

Record: 49-43 (57.3% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Outfield, catcher, right-handed bat, another reliever

It's always tough to identify exact needs on a well-rounded club. That's the Rays in 2025, but the outfield has been a revolving door of less-than-ideal options. Kameron Misner has seen the most plate appearances of any Ray in the outfield this year, and he's batted .214/.274/.347 in 216 plate appearances there. He faded badly after a hot start and was optioned to Triple-A Durham in late June.

Each of Jake Mangum, Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel and Chandler Simpson has received between 166 and 206 plate appearances in the outfield. Mangum and Morel have hit well but done so with the help of plenty of good fortune on batted balls. Simpson is getting his second look in the majors and using his speed and elite contact skills to produce solid offense. He could lead the majors in stolen bases but has 20-grade power (on the 20-80 scale), a well below-average walk rate and shaky defense in center. Lowe was terrific in 2023, pedestrian in 2024, and is somewhere in between in 2025.

The Rays have enough outfield options that they could mix-and-match for the rest of the season, playing the hot hand and rotating outfielders based on matchups they deem favorable. It's a tactic we've seen before from manager Kevin Cash (at various places on the roster), but some more stability and more power, in particular, might be welcome. Rays outfielders have been about league-average offensively on the whole, but they're benefiting from a .339 average on balls in play and rank 27th in the majors with a .121 isolated power mark (slugging percentage minus batting average). Only the Guardians and Royals have received fewer home runs from their outfield than the Rays' total of 21.

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